The Mariners are planning to begin the season with a six-man rotation in place, general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Greg Johns of MLB.com). That tactic should allow the Seattle club the opportunity to manage the innings of younger arms on a per-game basis while also maximizing their opportunity to evaluate some up-and-coming arms who could factor into the long-term outlook.
Recently extended southpaw Marco Gonzales seems likely to get the Opening Day nod as the Mariners’ most established starter, and the team will hope for better results from 29-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi in the second season of his uniquely structured free-agent deal. Kikuchi, who had established himself as one of Nippon Professional Baseball’s premier arms prior to 2019, is locked in at $43MM from 2019-21. After the contract’s third year, Seattle can pick up a four-year, $66MM “option.” If the club declines to do so, Kikuchi can instead exercise a $13MM player option. In essence, he’s guaranteed $56MM over four years, while the M’s have the opportunity to lock him up at what would be a total of seven years and $109MM if he takes his game to a new level between now and the completion of the 2021 campaign.
Beyond that pair of lefties, Seattle will get longer looks at southpaw Justus Sheffield and righty Justin Dunn — two key trade acquisitions that came over in the 2018-19 offseason. Sheffield, a former first-rounder and longtime top prospect, was the headline piece of the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees. Dunn came to the Mariners alongside vaunted outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and righty reliever Gerson Bautista in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster.
The Mariners also rolled the dice on a pair of low-cost free agents this winter, nabbing former division rival Kendall Graveman and former Mariner Taijuan Walker on one-year pacts. Both have seen their careers slowed by 2018 Tommy John surgery. Graveman, who had his procedure in late July that year, didn’t make it back to the big leagues in 2019. Walker’s surgery was in April 2018, but a strained shoulder capsule limited him to one inning in 2019, which came in the final game of the season.
As one would expect from a rebuilding club, the Mariners have plenty of other young options to dream on, though the organization’s very best pitching prospects are likely a bit too far down the pipeline to factor into the 2020 season. The Mariners have selected a college right-hander with their top pick in each of the past three drafts — Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and now Emerson Hancock — and while that trio is unlikely to pitch in the Majors this year (Gilbert being the lone plausible exception), Dipoto did suggest that they and other top prospects could be on the taxi squad primarily for developmental purposes (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Working out with other taxi squad members would give that promising group critical developmental reps in a year where no formal minor league season is expected to be played.
Hancock will be a future ace, Kelenic will hopefully be a future MVP. If everything works out, these guys will be nasty
Gilbert, Hancock, Gonzales, Dunn, Sheffield, Kirby, Williamson is a solid group of starters. Campbell is probably in that group as well.
Rodriguez and Kelenic are expected to be studs and could easily be the 2-3 hitters in the lineup for years. Long and White will probably hold their own as well. Crawford will have to prove his worth if he wants to push Marte to another position.
With all the free agent SS’s in 2022 and the likeliness of the QO going away, it’s easy to see Seattle going that route if Crawford proves to be better served in a utility role.
Marte is probably destined for third, more because of his size.
Good analysis brah
Still waiting for Sheffield to show us something to earn that too prospect status. He didn’t look all that great against the major league hitters
Throwing more pitchers helps if you have a lot of different pitchers with above average stuff.
There always has been pitchers who are much better their first time through the lineup
Just don’t think the Mariners have enough
Awful team. Their GM should be fired if they find see something soon.
Dipoto is doing a great job with the rebuild and absolutely should not be fired, at least until we find out if a bunch of Kelenic/Dunn/White/Rodriguez/Gilbert/Kirby/Hancock/Marte/Campbell/Then hit or miss.
You really need dominant pitching.
If Seattle can get great to elite pitching I see it
Not a ballpark for developing a bunch of hitters quickly.
That is a key reason why they have gone with college pitchers in recent drafts. They presumably need less time to develop/are closer to the bigs than high school pitchers. Ideally this speeds up the rebuild and they can sign/acquire hitters. That appears to be their plan.
Kelenic, Rodriguez, Haniger, Marte, Long, and White are the key hitters for the future.
True, because if your team can score a lot of runs, that’s great, but you will not go anywhere if your pitching is garbage. Just like in the NFL, even if you score a lot of points, you won’t do well if you also give up a lot, i.e Saints for much of the 2010s.
Long isn’t a key hitter of the future and wasn’t a risky move whatsoever. Throw Kyle Lewis in that mix since he was a 1st rounder and that will be judged harder.
I forgot about Kyle Lewis. Thanks for reminding me. I still think that Shed Long will be an impact leadoff hitter.
Spoken like someone that has no idea what is going on with the Mariners. Sure, they aren’t good now, but they have a lot of potential impact talent not far from the majors. Certainly, not all will hit, but several will…which is why it’s so important to have depth in the minors.
Results driven league
You have to see development.
Cannot live on the future for too long
When the Astros went through theirs. They always had Altuve. Knew he was going to be a high level player for awhile.
Results by any means. necessary I guess…
they were just trying to contend a few years ago. it hasnt been that long of a true rebuild.
Exactly! The rebuild only started last season, it’s not like they’ve been rebuilding for three years.
Altuve was just a decent player with upside during their rebuild process. He didn’t really emerge until 2015/16 before sign-stealing the show in 2017.
Not every team can draft a HoF-level trash can
Kinda like JD Martinez?
You must have missed the news….
They’re rebuilding.
Did Hancock sign yet?
He hasn’t signed yet but I’d imagine it will happen in short order. I’d expect that he is on that taxi squad and they should be able to get the physical handled in short order with players arriving by next Wednesday or so.
why would they put him on the taxi squad directly out of college?
I dont know if they will or not but maybe they think he is that advanced. I think it could be a it of a rush though.
they have these six as well as Gilbert and Kirby as well, there is no need to put him on there at all and all if its only worth it if you expect to use him, which would waste service time. honestly Gilbert is the only contender for a spot here, and even he may be a reach.
To get him work during the season from a development purpose. They will have a 30 man taxi squad to start the year and Dipoto has already said they will include top prospects that will not play in the majors this year. I don’t see any reason to not have Hancock on there unless you want to waste a year of development.
The Mariners don’t expect to contend anyway, so they can use a portion of that roster for their top development guys and still have a lot of guys available for the major league club as needed.
There is no service time for guys on the taxi squad, only if they play in the majors. You’re going to have 30 man roster at the MLB level initially and 30 guys in reserve. Even if you use 10 spots on kids that you will not use, you still have 20 guys in reserve initially and an additional four as rosters reduce over the first month.
Why wouldn’t you take advantage of development time for guys like Kelenic, Gilbert, JRod, Raleigh, Kirby, Campbell, Williamson, Hancock, and maybe even Marte (he might be a stretch). None of those guys, outside of Gilbert, would even have a shot to play in the majors this season.
my point is Hancock doesn’t need to be on the taxi squad to throw. very possible most teams have plans to keep their prospects fresh already.
i know, im saying there is no need to put him on the taxi squad if you have no expectation that he will play at all, and if he did it would be wasting service time. again, no need to have him on the taxi squad when they can just give him a throwing program to do on his own.
Dipoto and the Stanton (the owner) said yesterday that most all of the top prospects including Hancock will be on the taxi squad. Won’t get game action, just developmental reps on the taxi squad.
You don’t think working with player development directly and playing intra squad games is better development than a throwing program?
That’s probably why they want him on the taxi squad
Yes, per Shannon Drayer tweet: Mariners announce they have signed 3 draft picks, Emerson Hancock, Zach DeLoach and Taylor Dollard.
Yes
Gonzales, Kikuchi, Graveman, Walker, Sheffield, Dunn.
I am guessing that those are the six.
So this season is basically your early 2021 spring training.
This will be the case for a lot of teams. Unless your team is 100% built to win now, it will most likely be a development year. The standings will be pretty lopsided by the end of the 60 games.
i disagree. rebulidng teams will still use it as a developmental year, but you wolnt see teams that were expecting to be borderline contenders before tapping out now.
Need to see something.
Have to see the future pretty soon on the field producing.
Yankees, Rays, Twins, Whitesox, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Phillies, Mets, Nats, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers, Dbacks.
I think those are the teams who will try and win for the first 40 games at least. I wouldnt be surprised if the rest start to “develop” for 2021 sooner.
True
Revenue. Matters where your team is at.
People are thinking it is black or white
Some teams are going to attempt to combine the two.
If the Mariners do they will have to consider every other team in their division will be competing for a certain percentage of games. Especially because of the increase in playoff spots.
Revenue for additional games may be important for teams this year.
As of right now, there is no increase in playoff spots.
White Sox aren’t going anywhere but the cellar again. Angels starting pitching is still terrible and won’t do anything regardless of Rendon/Trout duo.
Kikuchi is the reason they should go with a 4 man rotation. Dead-last in ERA (among those who qualified by the ERA title) gets uglier when you remember he got lucky that one time and shut out the Brewers last June
He had two good games versus the Indians as well. Regardless, it was his first year in the majors, let’s see how it plays out. He absolutely should be starting every week and then we can get an idea of where he’s at. These guys will get roughly 10 starts this year, I am going to be focused more on how many of those starts were solid than raw numbers. The reason is that one bad outing will greatly skew the overall numbers due to a small sample size.
He had 25 bad outings. Starting pitchers from Japan are either hurt or awful. Kikuchi got knocked around 30 times. Get customs to send him back. He’s garbage.
that’s just completely wrong
Take that racism elsewhere
Name a starting pitcher from Asia that didn’t suck that could be bothered to make more than 30 starts. They all nibble and have terrible control of the strike zone. It’s facts, not racism. Google it. There’s this neat site called Baseball Reference, y’now, the one that links MLBTR, that you could utilize?
Nomo was awesome, threw heat and started over 30 games in at least 6 MLB seasons. Yu Darvish has had some excellent seasons and Tanaka has pitched very well despite a balky elbow; both of whom have started more than 30 games in multiple seasons. And we also have a healthy Ohtani to look forward to. Lots of successful Asian pitchers in MLB; stop being silly.
Nomo had 2 or 3 decent seasons. Darvish in my “Hurt or awful” classification is “hurt.” Tanaka throws 3-4 shoutouts and is middling the rest of the year. Whom has shown up and dominated for an entire season? Ohtani maybe, but he gets bailed out because he also mashes at the plate. Once a week isn’t going to win a Cy Young Award. I’ll wait.
Both Nomo and Darvish have dominated multiple seasons. Nomo was rookie of the year at age 26 and was Top 5 in Cy Young votes multiple times. Darvish was voted as 2nd place for the Cy Young award as well. Both average at least a strikeout or more per inning too. So they throw heat (do not nibble), have had excellent FULL seasons and have done so multiple times. Tanaka is definitely #3 on this list but he is a well above average starter and has pitched through an elbow injury for years. Ohtani may end up being the best of the bunch; we’ll just have to wait and see. Your argument is flawed my friend.
And let’s not forget about Chan Ho Park either who won over 120 games in his MLB career. He was a heck of pitcher himself. Then in the reliever category, Koji Uehara was as dominant of a relief pitcher as you’ll see in MLB for multiple seasons.
Ryu is pretty good, Only 29 starts last year but somehow managed to qualify for and Win the ERA title(2.32), lead the league with a mere 1.2 BB/9, finished 2nd in Cy Young voting and got a 4-yr 80/mil contract in the off-season! I’d guess I’d say he doesn’t suck….and that’s a fact, you can go look it up on Basball Refernence! 😉
Lots of people sleep on Hiroki Kuroda too — didn’t even come to the bigs until he was 33, and then made 31 or more starts in all but one of his seasons. Career ERA of 3.45.
That analysis on Tanaka is entirely anecdotal — generally he’s a reliable starter, not outstanding but decent.
– Kenta Maeda is another guy whose been solid.
Even though ya’ll were talking about starters, I can’t help but mention some of the successful relievers….
– Shigetoshi Hasegawa (RP) had a solid big league career and so did Kazuhiro Sasaki, who returned to Japan for non-perfromance related reasons.
– Takashi Saito posted a 2.34 career ERA out of the bullpen and didn’t even get here until he was 36.
Iwakuma is another one.
FYI
Hurt may be accurate as most of them have a tough time acclimating to starting every 5 days rather than once a week. Tanaka has been pretty good for the Yankees.
you don’t just luck your way into a CG SHO against one of the better teams in the game.
I see you saying you don’t luck your way to a shutout and raise you Edwin Jackson’s no-hitters and Dallas Braden’s Perfect Game. Kikuchi sucks.
Kikuchi was looking GREAT in spring training this year. His fastball was clocking up to 98. He had a really tough year last year and I’m hoping he can turn it around this year. I’ll give him thru the first half of next year to see if he’s a bust
The Seattle Chops. You know it will be good family fun going to the park. ⚾️
If I was a player for Seattle I would voice my opinion.
How can you play in for a team in a city that allows criminals to take it over
Socialism all day up here in Seattle baby. We love it! Stay mad!
I dont know if you are serious or not, but just have to say that CHAZ/CHOP has capitalism throughout it. Its hypocrisy at its finest.
Yeah I was kinda joking. The videos of chaz on YouTube from people living around there is a complete 180 of what most people perceive it to be. No “criminal activity”
And don’t forget that they have crime too. In less than 3 weeks, 4 people shot and a sexual assault in the CHAZ, along with countless numbers of B&E, vandalism and destruction of private property. One victim died, as they wouldn’t let the police and paramedics in to treat him while he was bleeding out on the street. These peaceful protesters are doing a great job of showing the country what eliminating Police forces in major cities would do for society!
LouisianaAstros, you don’t know the first thing about Seattle or anything that’s been going on and why.
And you can’t. You would have to have lived there to get it.
But you have repeatedly shown that you don’t understand what the organization is doing, either.
Do yourself a favor and follow some of the team’s personnel and players (Andy McKay, Brian DeLunas, Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Justin Dunn, JP Crawford, etc.), or Journalists, such as Shannon Drayer, Ryan Divish, and Mike Curto…
Things would start to make more sense real quick.
Roller in disguise.
Can the Red Sox borrow a starter for 2020?
That depends. Can I take your mother out for a nice seafood dinner and then never call her again?
In a 60 game season, I’d be using a 4-man rotation and spot starters as needed for double headers. With so few games, it greatly reduces sample size so luck can play a far greater role. Every team should want their 1-2 pitchers starting as frequently as possible. It’s not like they need to save their arm for those missing 102 games. I believe 1-2 starters should be pitching on 4 days rest as often as possible this season. Owners paying their top pitchers huge money likely want to get as much mileage as possible out of them.