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Latest On The Universal DH

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After the designated hitter was used in both leagues in 2020, it remains to be seen if the National League will again have a DH next season or if NL pitchers will get one more crack at the plate.  Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that all rule changes made for the 2020 season wouldn’t carry through to 2021, and such ideas like a universal DH would have to be settled with input from both the league and the players’ union.

There has been some level of discussion on this front, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes, with Major League Baseball offering the players implementation of the DH in both the National and American Leagues in exchange for the MLBPA signing off on an expanded playoff structure in 2021.

As Passan puts it, “understandably, the players don’t find that to be a particularly equitable trade.”  Bringing the DH to both leagues would open up more employment opportunities and contract money for position players, as NL teams would need to address their lineup depth and veteran players with less defensive mobility would suddenly have more options.  That said, the money available in an expanded DH market pales in comparison to the potential tens of millions in extra revenue the league would generate in TV revenue from extra playoff games.  The format for this expanded postseason isn’t known; Manfred has floated the idea of a 14-team postseason in the past, rather than the 16-team format used in 2020.

It has long been assumed that the universal DH would eventually be implemented, perhaps as soon as the 2022 season since the current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Players Association is up after the 2021 campaign.  However, with those CBA talks looming, negotiating even a one-year issue like a DH for the 2021 season inevitably leads into the tangled web of bigger-picture talks, like an expanded postseason.

This being said, the league’s offer may have been something of an “aim high” initial attempt just to see if the players would bite.  Some executives tell Passan that they think the NL will have the designated hitter next season, with the MLBPA agreeing to a concession that isn’t more playoff teams.

Phillies Acquire Rodolfo Sanchez From Rays

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The Phillies and Rays have completed their August 18 trade that sent Edgar Garcia to Tampa Bay, as the Phillies announced the acquisition of player-to-be-named-later Rodolfo Sanchez.

A 20-year-old right-hander, Sanchez was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2016.  While not seen as a top-30 prospect in Tampa’s farm system, Sanchez has some solid numbers thus far in this pro career, posting a 3.03 ERA, 3.28 K/BB rate, and 8.6 K/9 over 160 1/3 innings.  63 1/3 of those innings came at the lower A-ball level in 2019, as Sanchez was used exclusively as a starting pitcher for an entire season.

Garcia ended up with a 10.80 ERA over 3 1/3 innings and four appearances with the Rays, getting touched for three runs in an inning’s worth of work against the Yankees on August 31.  That marked his last MLB appearance of the season, as the Rays soon optioned Garcia down to their alternate training site.

Mariners Re-Sign Matt Magill, Gerson Bautista, Brady Lail

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The Mariners have agreed to sign right-handers Matt Magill, Gerson Bautista, and Brady Lail to minor league contracts, The Athletic’s Corey Brock reports (Twitter link).  All three pitchers were outrighted off Seattle’s 40-man roster following the season.

Magill entered the season as a candidate to become the Mariners’ closer, following a solid performance (3.94 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.79 K/BB rate) over 107 1/3 innings for the Twins and Mariners in 2018-19.  As it happened, Magill’s only two save opportunities of 2020 resulted in blown saves, and the only two poor outings of his season — Magill tossed nine scoreless innings over nine of his appearances, and seven earned runs over 1 1/3 innings in those two blown saves, working out to a somewhat misleading 6.10 ERA for the season.

Shoulder surgery cut Magill’s season short in mid-September, and it’s quite possible that his injury played a role in those two blown saves, given that they both occurred within Magill’s final three games of 2020.  Magill is expected to be healthy and ready in time for the start of Spring Training.  He was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, projected to earn somewhere between $700-$800K depending on how arb salaries are calculated this offseason.

Bautista didn’t pitch at all in 2020 due to a flexor strain in his elbow, and he also missed significant time due to a pec injury in 2019.  The hard-throwing righty still has only 13 1/3 big league innings under his belt, all with the Mets and Mariners in 2018-19.  Bautista is best known for being one of the five players acquired by the Mariners in the huge blockbuster trade in December 2018 that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York.

Claimed off waivers from the White Sox in August, Lail posted a 4.41 ERA, 1.71 K/BB rate, and 6.6 K/9 over 16 1/3 combined innings for Seattle and Chicago last season.  Originally an 18th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2012 draft, Lail’s eight seasons in New York’s farm system resulted in one MLB appearance before he was let go after the 2019 season.

Report: Indians Have Informed Other Clubs They Intend To Trade Francisco Lindor

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If you’ve been even loosely following things for the past couple of years, the notion that the Indians will trade star shortstop Francisco Lindor this offseason should come as no surprise. Still, it’s nevertheless of some note to see USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweet that Cleveland has informed other clubs of their intent to trade Lindor before Opening Day.

This is hardly the first such indication of the concept. We’ve discussed the possibility here at MLBTR numerous times in the past couple years — most recently two weeks ago when Connor Byrne ran through potential offseason trade partners who could take on Lindor for his final year of club control before free agency next year. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel also took a look at the possible market for Lindor last week, consulting with his colleagues who cover many prospective trade partners for the Indians.

The eventual trade of Lindor will serve as the inevitable culmination of a saga that began two years ago when, asked about the possibility of a Lindor extension, Indians owner Paul Dolan ominously told fans to simply “enjoy him.” Cleveland has long been a low-payroll organization, though the club ramped up payroll after its 2016 World Series run, even signing Edwin Encarnacion to a three-year, $60MM contract that winter.

Since that time — particularly over the past two offseasons — it’s been a steady march to reduce spending and return payroll to normal levels. Encarnacion was traded two years into that deal, while All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley was allowed to leave as a free agent without the club risking a qualifying offer. Cleveland has traded Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger as well and neglected to spend to address a lackluster outfield group in the post-Brantley era, instead focusing on hopeful bargain-bin additions.

All of those payroll-paring efforts came prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic that left all 30 MLB clubs without gate revenue for the 2020 season. The Indians themselves raised one of the most substantial red flags regarding the economic turmoil throughout the game when they placed All-Star closer Brad Hand on waivers in an effort to avoid paying a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option they did not intend to exercise. To the Indians’ credit, the negative framing of that move here at MLBTR was proven to be a bit misplaced when Hand went unclaimed and Cleveland was forced to pay the buyout anyhow.

That said, the decision not to retain Hand, coupled with all of the team’s recent market dealings, paints a clear picture of an organization that feels it necessary to further slash payroll — even at a time when the roster possesses enough talent to contend in the American League Central.

Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/FanGraphs projects that the Indians will have a roughly $72MM payroll for the 2021 season, but that figure includes the $19.5MM salary which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor to earn. Trading Lindor and potentially non-tendering some members of their arbitration class would put the Indians down into the $50MM range, pending any smaller-scale offseason additions.

It’s worth noting, of course, that Lindor’s trade value is likely at an all-time low. Beyond the fact that he has merely one year of club control remaining, he’s also coming off a poor season at a time when many rival clubs will simply balk at taking on a near-$20MM salary.

Lindor, 27 next week, turned in a pedestrian .258/.335/.415 slash (100 wRC+) with eight homers and six steals in this year’s shortened slate of games. It’s only a sample of 266 plate appearances, and Lindor registered a combined .278/.342/.514 output (121 wRC+) in the 2017-19 seasons combined, playing all-world defense at shortstop and averaging 34 homers and 21 steals per year along the way.

That track record should still fuel demand for his services, but with the benefit of hindsight, many fans will suggest the Indians waited a year too long to move him, given the inevitable nature of his trade candidacy. In addition to Dolan’s “enjoy him” line, it’s crucial to add that Lindor turned down an extension offer reported to be in the neighborhood of $100MM prior to the 2017 season, when he had just over a year of Major League service time. A long-term union between the two sides has never been seen as likely, and the primary question now is one of where — not whether — he’ll be traded.

Lindor himself has acknowledged the possibility of being traded this winter while simultaneously rejecting the notion that the team “can’t afford” to sign him. Asked by Meisel on Oct. 1 if Cleveland should be able to meet his asking price on a contract, Lindor replied: “Of course. It’s a billion-dollar team. Of course.”

Asked later in the interview about his expectations for the game’s economy over the next year in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, Lindor rhetorically answered: “Did you see MLB just signed a $3 billion contract?” The contract referenced by Lindor is the reported seven-year, $3.7 billion deal with Turner Sports to continue broadcasting half of the postseason’s games. Back in 2018, MLB also agreed to a seven-year, $5.1 billion rights deal with FOX for the World Series and the other half of postseason media rights in that same 2022-28 span.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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With a reduced payroll looming and many core pieces entering contract years, will the Cubs finally engineer a shake-up?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $16.5MM club option on 1B Anthony Rizzo
  • Declined $25MM club option on SP Jon Lester (paid $10MM buyout)
  • Declined $3.5MM club option on IF Daniel Descalso (paid $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Though the Cubs won the NL Central in the strange 60-game 2020 season, their season ended in disappointment just as it did in 2018 and 2019.  This time, it was a playoff sweep at the hands of the Marlins.  Most of the Cubs’ offensive core failed to show up in 2020.  Here’s Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein with a quote that might as well have come from the ’18 or ’19 post-mortem press conferences:

Clearly, some change is warranted and necessary.  Simply hoping for a better outcome moving forward doesn’t seem like a thoughtful approach. Embracing some change, even significant change, is warranted.

It’s remarkable how little the Cubs’ group of position players has turned over since they won the World Series in 2016.  Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward — they’re all still here.  Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber are each now down to one year of control.  Epstein’s contract will be up as well, and 2021 is widely expected to be his last hurrah with the Cubs before Jed Hoyer moves into the top chair in the front office.  Epstein has avoided change for the sake of change, but this is his last chance to shake up the team and try something different.

Any Cubs shakeup will come against the backdrop of financial austerity, with the team having laid off 100-plus employees, according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.  And while the pandemic will be the driver of the Cubs’ expected player payroll reduction, it’s not as if they were spending any money in the two previous offseasons.  If you’re looking for potential free-agent targets, focus on players at the bottom of our Top 50 Free Agents list, unless the club dumps salary first.

So once again, the winter is all about trade speculation for Cubs fans.  The problem?  Likely trade candidates Bryant and Schwarber had lousy years with the bat, and Baez was particularly awful.  The samples are small.  Bryant’s 147 plate appearances would have represented less than a quarter of a season for him based on the 671 he averaged from 2015-17.  No one thinks Bryant is now a below-average hitter, given a five-year track record of success before 2020.  From a club standpoint, the down year will at least prevent his arbitration salary from climbing much higher than the $18.6MM he was supposed to earn in a full 2020.  But even though it was just 147 plate appearances, trading Bryant now is still selling low.  At a time when most teams are expected to reduce payroll, who wants to take on roughly $20MM for Bryant while also giving up good players?

I explored specific team matches for Bryant in this post.  You can identify about a half-dozen clubs that could work.  The Cubs are between a rock and a hard place with Bryant, though.  If the Cubs expect Bryant to put up a 4 WAR season in 2021, but no one’s offering much beyond salary relief, they should just keep him.  But if they keep him, they cut off a major avenue for making a significant change to the team.

We should also take a moment to discuss the possibility of the Cubs non-tendering Bryant on December 2nd, which Mooney and Sharma said recently “probably can’t be totally dismissed out of hand because the Cubs have shown us how they are managing the downturn.”  As they wrote, this would be an “embarrassment” and a “worst-case scenario.”  If the Cubs exhaust all trade scenarios and don’t want to commit themselves to Bryant at around $20MM, it is an avenue they could take, however unlikely.  We did just see 29 teams pass on Brad Hand at one year and $10MM.  If no one is willing to take Bryant at his salary, the Cubs’ choice would come down to keeping him or cutting him.  They could also consider cutting Bryant or Schwarber during Spring Training, but that would require at least 30 days termination pay and would put the player in a difficult spot.

Schwarber presents a lesser version of the same dilemma.  He posted a 90 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, but it’s not too hard to picture him returning to the 115-120 range in 2021 as a 28-year-old next year.  If he does, his $7MM salary could be a bargain.  He’s still more replaceable than Bryant, which is why I wouldn’t rule out a non-tender for Schwarber either if the Cubs can’t find a trade partner prior to December 2nd.  I’m not optimistic about the Cubs finding a team willing to give up anything of note for a left fielder/designated hitter, particularly with Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley available in free agency and Eddie Rosario in trade (and possibly being non-tendered himself).  Brantley, a much better contact hitter than Schwarber, would actually be an interesting choice to replace him for the Cubs.  I’m not sure I can see the Cubs unloading Schwarber’s $7MM to potentially sign Brantley for twice as much, however.

With Baez, a contract extension could be more likely than a trade.  He’s a popular, entertaining player with a desire to stay.  I can see fans being disappointed if the Cubs keep Bryant and Schwarber, trade them for an uninspiring return, or non-tender them for nothing.  A Baez extension could restore some goodwill.  Figuring out a fair number during a pandemic for a player coming off a bad year could make an extension difficult for Baez, however.  The Cubs have already extended some goodwill toward face of the franchise Anthony Rizzo, exercising his $16.5MM club option after a 103 wRC+ performance.  It’s hard to picture Rizzo in any other uniform, but a new contract would have to be hammered out to retain him beyond ’21.

The Cubs have several solid building blocks in place through 2023 in Darvish, Hendricks, and Happ.  They’ve got Contreras under control through ’22.  All options will likely be on the table in terms of trades, and these are the players with trade value.  Contreras is coming off a solid year, and getting his age 29-30 seasons would likely be appealing to the runners-up for J.T. Realmuto.  Plus, Contreras won’t cost $20MM+ like Realmuto will.  The Cubs could trim $7MM in payroll if they exchange Contreras for pre-arbitration players.  The Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rays, and Yankees could be interesting trade partners.  If they trade Contreras, the Cubs might be content to plug in Victor Caratini as their starter behind the dish.

Similarly, the Cubs could look to get out of their commitment to Darvish with his value at a high point.  They wouldn’t be able to find a Cy Young-caliber pitcher to replace him, but they could use some of the savings for veteran free agents while also bringing in quality minimum-salary players in the trade.  Considering painful scenarios like these is the reality of the 2021 Cubs.

With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood reaching free agency, the Cubs figure to import at least one starting pitcher this winter and possibly two.  They’ve got Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills slated behind Darvish and Hendricks, but the team clearly needs more.  Interest in a Lester reunion is mutual, though the Cubs may seek more upside than the veteran southpaw can offer.  One possible answer would be to find the pitching equivalent of Bryant or Schwarber – an arbitration eligible player with limited control coming off a down year –  and broker a trade.  Such a deal could be struck prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, particularly in the case of Schwarber.

On the other hand, Epstein spoke about “thread[ing] the needle and improv[ing] in 2021 while also setting ourselves up for the long-term future,” which suggests he’d like prefer to swap contract year players for ones with multiple years of control.  That makes sense in theory, but as I’ve been saying, Bryant and Schwarber don’t seem to have a lot of trade value.  Look at the minimal return the Indians received for a $17.5MM Corey Kluber after a lost 2019 season.  And that was with the Rangers at least having the chance to get two years of Kluber, who had an expensive option for 2021 (that was bought out due to injury).  That’s why trading Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, or Happ might be Epstein’s best way to thread the needle.

The Cubs’ bullpen is also in need of reinforcements.  The pitcher they put in the highest-leverage situations, Jeremy Jeffress, is a free agent.  Much has been made of Craig Kimbrel’s final 14 appearances of the season, in which he posted a 1.42 ERA with a 53.1 K%, 14.3 BB%, and no home runs allowed.  The list of 60+ inning relief seasons from 2015-19 in which a pitcher walked at least 14% of batters faced runs just seven-deep: Brandon Workman, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Steven Brault, Reyes Moronta, Carl Edwards Jr., and Kyle Barraclough.  The truth is that if you issue free passes to batters at the rate Kimbrel did in the “good” portion of his 2020 season, you’re walking a tightrope that few have found sustainable.

The Cubs’ most reliable reliever might be Rowan Wick, who has strung together 50 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball since joining the team in a November 2018 trade.  I can picture Ryan Tepera sticking around, though he walked a career-worst 13.5% of batters faced for the Cubs this year.  The Cubs’ other potential bullpen holdovers seem even more fungible.  I’m not yet convinced in the Cubs’ ability to grab castoff relievers on the cheap, run them through their Pitch Lab, and create an above-average bullpen.  One-year deals should abound for free agent relievers this winter, and the Cubs should set their sights higher than the scrap heap.

Epstein’s legacy in Chicago is secure, and he’s likely headed for the Hall of Fame one day.  But for a big-market, high-payroll team that’s made the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, fans can’t help but feel disappointed with one championship.  In positioning the 2021 Cubs for one last run, Epstein faces one of his greatest challenges.

Red Sox Down To Three Managerial Candidates

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The Red Sox are beginning to narrow the list of managerial candidates they’re considering, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). While five finalists have been previously reported — former manager Alex Cora, Phillies director of integrative baseball performance Sam Fuld, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Marlins bench coach James Rowson and Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza — Heyman characterizes Cora and Fuld as the favorites.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe also suggests that the search is nearing a conclusion, reporting that Mendoza and one other finalist have been informed they’re no longer in the running. Cora and Fuld are indeed among the three remaining finalists, per Speier, who adds that a decision is expected to be made “soon.” While the widespread expectation has been that the Red Sox will simply re-hire Cora, Heyman notes that Fuld is seen as having a “very real” chance at winning the gig.

Fuld’s name was only linked to the Boston job less than a week ago, though the 38-year-old has past ties to Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom since both were members of the Rays organization (Fuld as a player, Bloom in the baseball operations department) from 2011-13. Multiple teams have expressed interest in Fuld for managerial positions in the past but he has declined interviews, so the fact that he has been speaking with the Red Sox is perhaps itself notable. Fuld was hired to his current position by former Phillies GM Matt Klentak, though since Klentak is no longer running Philadelphia’s front office, this could hint at why Fuld may now be open to exploring job opportunities on other teams.

Fuld has never worked as a coach or manager at any level, making him an interesting contrast to a World Series-winning manager like Cora. The unknown candidate, whether it’s Rowson or Kelly, would also be a first-time manager.  Rowson has worked as Miami’s bench coach for a season and over a decade of experience as a Major League hitting coach and minor league hitting instructor.  Since retiring from playing after the 2016 season, Kelly spent two season as a scout for the Tigers before moving onto coaching roles with the Astros and Pirates.

Dombrowski Staying With Nashville Group, Not A Candidate For Current Front Office Openings

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Former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox baseball operations lead Dave Dombrowski has been regularly mentioned as a possible candidate for the Angels’ GM vacancy, but Dombrowski went on record with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to explain that he is committed to his current role with Music City Baseball and is not pursuing other opportunities in the sport.

Dombrowski, former D-backs GM Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa joined Music City Baseball, LLC back in July — an organization endeavoring to bring Major League Baseball to Nashville, Tenn. While La Russa was clearly open to other opportunities — he’s since been the surprise managerial pick of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf — Dombrowski tells Rosenthal that he signed a four-year contract and has no plans to change course.

“I’m staying in Nashville,” Dombrowski plainly stated, adding that he made “…a commitment when I moved here that as we continue to pursue a new team — expansion, relocation or if it goes nowhere — that I would stay here with them.”

For now, the Nashville group will continue its efforts to bring a team to Tennessee and Dombrowski will remain a major part of that effort. It’s likely, per Rosenthal, that if Dombrowski’s group is ultimately able to succeed in bringing an expansion club to the city, that he would head up that new club’s baseball ops department. Of course, that’s a rather long-term goal that likely won’t come to fruition at any point in the immediate future, if at all. Dombrowski did leave the door open for him to explore new MLB opportunities before the end of his current contract if eventually “there’s nothing at the end of the road” and “we don’t have an organization” any longer.

It’s clear, though, that Dombrowski’s name can be removed from speculation surrounding not only the Angels but the Marlins, Phillies and, if a change is made in New York under new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets.

Nationals To Re-Sign Aaron Barrett

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The Nationals have re-signed righty Aaron Barrett to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic reports (Twitter thread). The club has also re-signed infielders Adrian Sanchez and Brandon Snyder to minor league deals with camp invites.

Of the three, only Barrett logged time at the Major League level for the Nats in 2020. The 32-year-old righty (33 in January) looked to be emerging as a mainstay in the D.C. bullpen from 2014-15 before a torn UCL required Tommy John surgery. He fractured his elbow near the completion of that rehab stint, further derailing his return.

The Nats captured Double-A skipper Matthew LeCroy informing Barrett of his return to the Majors on video in 2019. That, coupled with Barrett becoming overwhelmed with emotion following his first big league appearance after close to a half decade of rehab, served as one of many feel-good stories in a magical campaign for the Nats.

Barrett has pitched just four innings in the Majors since that 2019 return, and he’ll now look for another opportunity to carve out a larger role in the Nationals’ relief corps. He’s been tagged for six runs in those four innings, but Barrett carried a 3.47 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 70 frames prior to running into his injury troubles.

Turning to the 30-year-old Sanchez, he spent parts of the 2017-19 seasons with the Nats, serving primarily as a utility infield piece. He’s appeared in a total of 90 big league games, all with the Nats, and posted a .263/.280/.331 batting line in 166 trips to the plate.

Snyder, 34 in a few weeks, spent the 2019 season with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate and returned on another minor league deal last winter. He hasn’t gotten to the Majors with the Nats and has only appeared in two MLB games since the conclusion of the 2016 season. A former first-round pick, Snyder has seen MLB action in parts of six seasons, during which time he’s batted .240/.276/.455 with nine homers, five doubles and a triple in 211 plate appearances. The corner infielder/outfielder belted 31 home runs for the Nats’ Triple-A club during that 2019 stint and has a career .773 OPS in parts of 10 seasons at that level.

Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

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There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Justin Turner

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The coda to an unforgettably weird 2020 baseball season came when Justin Turner celebrated with his Dodgers teammates in the wake of a mid-World Series COVID-19 diagnosis. That incident led Major League Baseball announce a “full investigation into this matter” in a statement that flatly panned Turner for his recklessness.

Now, the league and MLB Players Union are “moving closer to a resolution” of the case from a disciplinary perspective, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Just when we’ll learn of the outcome isn’t known; neither is it clear what range of punishment is under contemplation.

The league and union typically interact regarding disciplinary matters. There’s a reason that most PED or domestic violence-related suspensions are announced alongside the player’s decision not to challenge the result.

That was all the more necessary here. The league’s coronavirus protocols were jointly developed and obviously required significant buy-in from union officials and the players they represent. And Turner’s covid-shedding celebration presents a situation without any obvious precedent.

It seems we’ll have a final determination — and an opportunity for Turner to make some amends — before free agency begins in earnest (whenever that may be). Turner is one of the top available players on the open market this winter. It’s an open question whether and how the surreal scene will impact his free agency.

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