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Archives for 2020
Carlos Gonzalez Unlikely To Make Mariners’ Roster
Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is not expected to make the Opening Day roster of the Mariners, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Following up on that, MLBTR’s Steve Adams tweets that Gonzalez has an April 1 opt-out in his minor league deal with Seattle. He can also request his release on the first of the month each month up through August if not on the MLB roster.
The 34-year-old Gonzalez has produced middling numbers this spring, with a slash of .273/.360/.318 across 25 plate appearances. And though that’s an improvement over the .200/.289/.283 line he put up at the MLB level in 2019, it appears that won’t be enough to get him back into the big leagues. Divish spoke to some scouts who commented on his slow bat speed and struggles with velocity. Divish adds that Gonzalez wasn’t viewed as likely to make the club even at the time he signed his deal, calling it more of a “courtesy” audition for a veteran player.
The Mariners seem to have narrowed their outfield competition down to younger players that they want to get long looks at, with Jake Fraley being the favorite to play regularly in right field, alongside center fielder Mallex Smith and left fielder Kyle Lewis. Divish also notes that the utility/bench duties are likely going to other younger players, such as Tim Lopes and Patrick Wisdom. Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also seemingly getting more consideration than the veteran Gonzalez before befalling to injuries.
Gonzalez, a three-time All-Star, had a terrific run of success with Colorado from from 2009 to 2016, producing a wRC+ above 100 in each of those seasons except for the injury-shortened campaign of 2014. However, he hasn’t been able to get back above the 100 line since.
Gonzalez now seems likely to return to the open market, given the opt-out provisions in his deal and his apparently minimal chances of making the roster in Seattle. He could theoretically decide to stay with the Mariners organization in order to get some playing time down on the farm and further showcase himself for other clubs. But given the organization’s preference to use the 2020 season to look at young talent, Gonzalez may lean toward trying to find a better path back to the show.
Blue Jays Notes: Extension Talks, Pre-Arb Salaries, Yamaguchi
Let’s check in on the latest regarding the Blue Jays, all coming via Sportsnet …
- President Mark Shapiro covered a variety of matters in a recent chat with the Writers Bloc show (audio link). Of particular interest was his discussion of the team’s potential young extension targets. Shapiro obviously wasn’t willing to address specifics, but did indicate that the team is inclined to reach deals where possible. On the possibility of extensions, he said fans can “assume we’ve explored it or are exploring it with every one of our young players that we have a strong belief are going to be good players and here for a long time.” Actually getting a deal done is obviously a different story; there, Shapiro spoke of negotiations as “sharing risk” for the future.
- Most of the team’s top potential extension targets have little MLB service time, so they’re in the class of players that have no effective control over their salaries. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports, the Jays were able to get agreement on 2020 earnings with all of their pre-arbitration players, rather than being forced to renew certain players who weren’t pleased with what was offered. (Contract renewals are a symbolic gesture but can impact a team’s relationship with a player. We discussed this in a recent MLBTR YouTube video.) While there has been some grumbling around the game, the Jays seem to have earned plaudits for enunciating and sharing a complete list of their salary offers with an explanation for the formula utilized in reaching them. You can find all of the specific Jays salaries in the above link. Budding stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio each landed in the $570K to $580k range. The MLB minimum for the coming season is $563,500.
- Newly inked righty Shun Yamaguchi isn’t making things easy on his new club — in a good way. As Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes, the former Japanese star has worked through some difficulties to turn in a strong recent outing. As we explored recently, he’s one of many conceivable candidates for the fifth starter job. Nicholson-Smith writes that Trent Thornton remains the front-runner, but the Jays will surely be glad to maintain some competition and feel good about the status of their depth. Yamaguchi, 32, will slide into the pen if he doesn’t crack the rotation.
Rangers Notes: Mendez, Allard, Chavez
Left-handed reliever Yohander Mendez has been placed on the suspended list by the Texas Rangers for seeking unauthorized medical care, which is a violation of this contract, according to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Rangers general manager Jon Daniels was tight-lipped and didn’t elaborate with any further details. Generally, MLB players must seek permission before getting outside medical opinions. Sullivan notes that Mendez will be allowed to remain in camp and continue rehabbing his shoulder inflammation, which is presumably the injury he sought outside advice about.
Since making his debut with the Rangers in 2016, Mendez has appeared in 20 games for the team, including five starts in 2018. Over that span, he has produced an ERA of 6.23 with 33 strikeouts over 47 2/3 IP. He was expected to compete for a bullpen spot this year. It remains to be seen whether this suspension will now prevent him from doing so.
This isn’t the first time Mendez has caught the ire of his employers. He was optioned down to the minors in 2018 after a night on the town with Rougned Odor and some members of the Kansas City Royals “got out of hand.” Much like with today’s story, Jon Daniels kept the details of that incident close to his chest.
A few more notes from Rangers camp…
- LHP Kolby Allard was optioned to Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday. The 22-year-old made 9 starts for the club in 2019, producing a 4.96 ERA and compiling 33 strikeouts over 45 1/3 innings pitched. But the offseason additions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles have pushed him into a depth role, at least for the time being.
- RHP Jesse Chavez is not going to be ready for Opening Day, according to Daniels. Chavez has been experiencing “shoulder weakness” this spring as he attempts to come back from the elbow surgery he underwent last August. “We are going to give him a couple of weeks to build up his strength before we get him back on a mound,” Daniels said. “The end of April would be a positive outcome to have him back in games.” The Rangers signed Chavez to a two-year $8MM deal prior to the 2019 season. The veteran oscillated between the rotation and the bullpen in the first year of his deal, accumulating 78 innings over 48 games, including 9 starts, putting up a 4.85 era in that time with 72 strikeouts.
10 NL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years
Our series focusing on notable players looking for bounce-back seasons in 2020 rolls on with the National League Central. We’ll start with 10 of the division’s hitters who hope to return to form this year…
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds:
Votto is one of the greatest hitters who has ever lived, so it was rather surprising – even at the age of 35 – to see him turn in such pedestrian numbers in 2019. He ended up with what was essentially a league-average line of .261/.357/.411 with 15 home runs in 608 plate appearances, mustering just 0.7 fWAR during that span. Compared to 2018, the ever-patient Votto saw his walk rate fall by almost 5 percent, his out-of-zone swing rate jump by nearly 5 percent and his strikeout rate climb by 4 percent. Regarding his performance last year, Votto admitted in February (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com): “It’s the worst season I’ve had in my career, pretty clearly. I don’t think it’s close. Everything went the wrong way.” Now, the six-time All-Star and former MVP is “motivated” to turn things around as part of what could be the Reds’ first contending team in several years.
Lorenzo Cain, CF, Brewers:
Cain joined Votto in logging uncharacteristically mediocre numbers last season. But Cain, a 5.7-fWAR player as recently as 2018, was clearly hampered by a right thumb injury. That issue played a part in limiting the 33-year-old to 1.5 fWAR and a .260/.325/.372 line across 623 trips to the plate. From 2018-19, his walk rate fell by 3.5 percent, his wRC+ plummeted by 41 points (124 to 83) and he stole 12 fewer bases (30 to 18).
Justin Smoak, 1B, Brewers:
One of the Brewers’ offseason free-agent pickups, Smoak is coming off a year in which he matched Votto in wRC+. That’s normally a good thing, but at 101, that wasn’t the case last season. In his final campaign with the Blue Jays, the switch-hitting Smoak only put together a .208/.342/.406 line in his 500 PA. But his hard-hit rate increased by almost 9 percent, according to FanGraphs, and Statcast was a fan of his work. Notably, the 33-year-old’s expected weighted on-base average (.366) far outpaced his real wOBA (.323).
Jedd Gyorko, INF, Brewers:
Another of Milwaukee’s offseason signings, Gyorko is on the heels of a brutal and injury-wrecked 2019 spent with the Cardinals and Dodgers. He accounted for minus-0.7 fWAR in just 101 PA, thanks in large part to an unsightly .174/.248/.250 line. Before that, Gyorko totaled three straight seasons of above-average offensive production. For an affordable $2MM, Milwaukee’s hoping a healthy version of the 31-year-old will return to his 2016-18 days.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals:
There was nothing wrong with Goldschmidt’s output in 2019, per se; it just didn’t match up to the brilliance we’ve come to expect from him. A middling start to the six-time All-Star’s first season as a Cardinal tamped down his overall numbers, helping limit him to a .260/.346/.476 showing and 2.9 fWAR (though he did hit 34 home runs). Remember, Goldschmidt entered the year as a lifetime .297/.398/.532 hitter with six consecutive seasons of between 4.0 and 7.2 fWAR.
Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals:
Carpenter, like Goldschmidt, was a star in the several seasons preceding 2019. But last year went awry for Carpenter, who – for the first time in his career – failed to record even average offensive production. The 34-year-old finished the season as a .226/.334/.392 hitter in 492 PA, notching a career-worst 1.2 fWAR in the process. Compared to 2018, Carpenter’s walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong direction by about 3 percent apiece, his ISO plummeted by a stunning 100 points, and his hard-hit percentage fell by eight points.
Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals:
The Cardinals are currently working to extend the 37-year-old Molina, one of the best players in franchise history, though the potential Hall of Famer wasn’t his usual self in 2019. He produced his lowest fWAR (1.2) since 2006 and batted a powerless .270/.312/.399 in 452 PA. On the other side, Molina’s caught-stealing rate went down by a few points to 27 percent (still a bit better than average), and his pitch-framing output also dropped.
Harrison Bader, CF, Cardinals:
With this many Cardinals on the list, it’s a wonder they took the division last season. Anyhow, Bader was a major contributor to the team in 2018 – his first full season – but couldn’t come close to replicating that performance in ’19. His fWAR was cut in half by 50 percent (3.6 to 1.8), largely because of a disappointing .205/.314/.366 line over 406 trips to the plate. A 4 percent increase in strikeout rate was among the culprits. To Bader’s credit, though, he did slash his soft-contact rate and continue to thrive in the outfield, where he tallied 14 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.9 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates:
It would be fair to give Polanco a mulligan for his poor year, as he underwent left shoulder surgery in September 2018 and dealt with problems in that area throughout last season. He only appeared in 42 games and amassed 167 PA, batting .242/.301/.425.
Daniel Descalso, INF, Cubs:
The typically light-hitting Descalso was so effective as a Diamondback in 2018 that it convinced the Cubs to give him a two-year, $5MM contract heading into last season. That decision has not paid off at all so far. The 33-year-old Descalso’s initial season in Chicago couldn’t have gone much worse, as he batted .173/.241/.250 over 194 PA and accounted for minus-0.8 fWAR. Among 411 hitters who racked up at least 150 PA, Descalso ranked seventh worst in wRC+ (42) and 14th from the bottom in ISO (.077). If you’re skeptical that he’ll turn back into a decent contributor this year, you’re not alone, but there’s really nowhere to go but up.
14 NL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years
We took a look Tuesday at 10 position players from the National League East who are hoping 2020 goes better than last year did. Let’s now explore an even larger selection of pitchers seeking rebound efforts this season…
Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Braves:
Foltynewicz was an indispensable part of the Braves’ rotation two years ago, but the beginning of last season went so poorly for him that the team optioned him to Triple-A in late June. Upon his return in August, Foltynewicz was a much better pitcher, his horrid performance in the Braves’ NLDS elimination game against the Cardinals notwithstanding. The two-time defending division champion Braves will need his August-September to carry over, as their rotation’s dealing with some uncertainty because of Cole Hamels’ shoulder problems.
Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets:
To be clear, last season was not a poor one for Syndergaard by any means. He amassed a personal-high 197 1/3 innings, continued to average upward of 97 mph on his fastball and posted 9.2 K/9 against 2.28 BB/9. Moreover, Syndergaard was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the majors in average exit velocity against, expected weighted on-base average and hard-hit percentage, among other categories. On the other hand, his normally stellar run prevention hit career-worst levels. Syndergaard wound up with a 4.28 ERA/3.60 FIP. That’s fine, but it’s not the front-of-the-rotation type of production we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him log.
Rick Porcello/Michael Wacha, RHPs, Mets:
We’ll lump these two together because they’re both offseason signings who could factor into the back of the Mets’ rotation. Porcello, a former Cy Young winner with the Red Sox, continued to chew up innings last year (174 1/3), but he couldn’t keep runs off the board. His ERA (5.52) was dead last among qualified starters, while his 4.76 FIP checked in as the game’s seventh-worst figure. But the Mets took a $10MM gamble on the durable 31-year-old. That came after they spent $3MM on Wacha, a former Cardinal who – contrary to Porcello – has not been the picture of durability. Wacha has typically stopped runs at a quality clip, but that wasn’t the case last season – a year in which he shuffled between the Cardinals’ rotation and bullpen and concluded with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP over 126 2/3 frames. Career-worst walk and home run-to-fly ball rates of 3.91 and 22 percent, respectively, dragged him down.
Edwin Diaz/Jeurys Familia/Dellin Betances, RHPs, Mets:
Lots of Mets on this list, aren’t there? Diaz was supposed to be the team’s end-of-game savior last season after coming over in a blockbuster trade with the Mariners. He turned in one of the greatest seasons in the history of relievers the year prior, so you can’t blame the Mets for expecting his excellence to continue. Instead, opposing hitters tattooed the 25-year-old for a 5.59 ERA/4.51 FIP and 2.33 home runs per nine across 58 innings, leading to seven blown saves in 33 attempts (Diaz went 57-of-61 in those situations in 2018). But if the HR rate and the .377 batting average on balls in play return to earth in 2020, Diaz should be OK. He did, after all, strike out 15.36 hitters per nine (against 3.41 walks) and average almost 98 mph on his fastball last year.
Like Familia, Diaz came to the Mets as a ballyhooed offseason pickup a year ago. As someone who pitched well for the Mets in his prior stint with the team, Familia was already a known commodity to the club. However, New York didn’t get the version of Familia it expected in 2019. He continued to throw hard (in the 96 mph range), but a bloated walk rate of 6.3 per nine contributed to an awful 5.70 ERA/4.88 FIP in 60 frames. Like Diaz, an inflated BABIP (.346) was among the contributors to Familia’s struggles, though he earned that to some degree with a 7 percent increase in hard-hit rate.
Betances is the lone member of this trio who’s not coming off a poor season. The longtime Yankee, whom the Mets signed to a $10.5MM guarantee on Christmas Eve, is just trying to bounce back from an injury-wrecked year. Betances only made one appearance last year after battling shoulder troubles. And when he was leaving the mound following that September outing, the four-time All-Star suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon.
Sean Doolittle/Roenis Elias, LHPs, Nationals:
Doolittle was incredibly dominant for the Nationals two years ago, and though he helped the team to a World Series last fall, his regular season wasn’t as productive. His ERA and FIP (4.05/4.25) each increased by more than two runs, while his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (9.9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 25.3 percent) were also markedly worse than they were during the previous season. Elias experienced a similar drop-off, and injuries limited him to four appearances for the Nats after they acquired him from the Mariners at the July 31 trade deadline. But he and Doolittle will head into the new season as the top two southpaws in Washington’s bullpen.
Adam Conley, LHP; Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Marlins:
The hard-throwing Conley was a fairly solid piece out of the Marlins’ bullpen in 2018. That wasn’t the case last season – a 60 2/3-inning campaign in which he pitched to a 6.53 ERA/5.19 FIP with 7.86 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent grounder rate. Conley also saw his swinging-strike rate fall by more than 4 percent, though he did give up fewer hard-hit balls, and a .351 BABIP didn’t help matters.
Steckenrider joined Conley two seasons ago in seemingly emerging as a respectable late-game arm for Miami. However, thanks in part to elbow troubles, he never really got off the ground last year. Steckenrider only tossed 14 1/3 innings, in which he yielded 10 earned runs on nine hits – including six home runs.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies:
Arrieta’s a former Cy Young winner with the Cubs who hasn’t performed as hoped since the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $75MM guarantee entering 2018. The 34-year-old dealt with a serious elbow injury last season, holding him to 135 2/3 innings (his fewest since 2013) and a 4.64 ERA/4.89 FIP.
Seranthony Dominguez/Victor Arano, RHPs, Phillies:
These two relievers were terrific out of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2018, but their health failed them last year. They combined for just 29 1/3 innings, most of which came from Dominguez. Whether they rebound this season will obviously depend in part on whether they’re actually able to take the mound with consistency. Arano, whom elbow surgery largely kept off the hill in 2019, does look as if he’s trending toward Opening Day readiness. That’s not the case for Dominguez, who just suffered a setback in his own recovery from elbow woes.
Brett Cecil Leaves Game With Hamstring Injury
Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil left Wednesday’s spring training game after injuring his hamstring while covering first base, Anne Rogers of MLB reported on Twitter.
Cecil will go for tests tomorrow to see what caused the “pop” he felt in his leg. The lefty said he was feeling good about how his spring was going before the incident. “That was the best I’ve felt in a long time,” he told Rogers. “Cutter was cutting, sinker was sinking, ball was good. See how it looks tomorrow and go from there.”
Another injury would further dent what has been a disappointing tenure in St. Louis for Cecil. Before the 2017 season, the Cardinals signed the southpaw to a four-year deal that guaranteed him $30.5MM. At the time, Cecil was coming off a four-year run of quality out of the Blue Jays bullpen, with a 2.90 ERA and 11.5 K/9 over that stretch.
However, since swapping one ornithological jersey for another, the results have not been nearly as positive. In 2017, the first season of his deal, Cecil’s stats regressed somewhat, as he mustered a palatable 3.88 ERA but with a paltry 8.8 K/9, by far his lowest since becoming a full-time reliever. 2018 came with shoulder issues and saw Cecil’s effectiveness dip even lower, to an ERA of 6.89 and a 5.2 K/9. And he couldn’t even make it onto a major league mound in 2019, going on the IL on March 28th. Cecil had carpal tunnel surgery in April and never made it back onto the roster. The Cardinals will pay him $7.25MM in 2020, the final year of the deal.
Though St. Louis surely would have welcomed Cecil returning to form, they would not have been relying on him to make significant contributions based on his recent track record. Although with fellow lefty Andrew Miller also currently on the shelf, that leaves the Cardinals with only inexperienced southpaws for their bullpen, such as Tyler Webb and Genesis Cabrera.
Cardinals, Yadier Molina Discussing Extension
The Cardinals are working to extend the contract of longtime catcher Yadier Molina for at least one more year and “probably” two more seasons, reports The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required).
Molina, 37, has been the Cardinals’ primary catcher since 2005 and, over the course of his career, has shouldered the largest workload of any backstop in the game. His durability is the stuff of legend, as evidenced by 15 straight seasons of at least 107 games caught and an average of 126.4 games caught per season during that remarkable stretch. From 2009-13, Molina caught at least 131 games per year. As recently as 2016, he started a ridiculous 142 games behind the plate.
Currently in the final season of a three-year, $60MM extension that pays him an even $20MM per year, it’s unlikely that Molina would command such a lofty salary under the terms of a new contract. The 2019 season, after all, was among the least-productive years he’s put together since breaking out as a big league regular (despite a league-wide uptick in offensive output). In 452 plate appearances, he hit .270/.312/.399. Molina’s low strikeout rate and excellent bat-to-ball skills have long helped him post quality batting averages, but last year’s 5.1 percent walk rate was the lowest of his career. His power dipped noticeably from its 2017-18 levels as well. Molina’s once-elite caught-stealing rate and framing numbers have also tailed off over the past couple of seasons, checking in closer to league average.
Molina, of course, is still a plenty useful backstop — one whose all-around value to the organization would surely be labeled as invaluable by the Cardinals themselves. Hammering out a specific price point could be difficult, though. Molina’s annual salary was already a high-water mark for catchers, and there’s no recent precedent for a catcher inking an extension at this point in his career. Then again, there’s no real precedent for a catcher with Molina’s track record in today’s game at all (as alluded to previously). By the time most catchers reach their age-38 seasons — Molina will turn 38 in July — most have either been downgraded to backup status or have simply retired.
The level at which Molina deems an offer to be suitable, then, is anyone’s guess. His career path in some ways mirrors that of longtime teammate Adam Wainwright, who looked to be running on fumes at the end of the 2018 season. Wainwright agreed to a one-year deal with a minimal $2MM base salary in 2019 and maxed out his incentives package with a bounceback 2019 effort that he parlayed into a $5MM deal for the 2020 season — but that comparison only goes so far. The two play vastly different positions, Molina is talking extension as opposed to a free-agent deal, and he’s still been healthy and reasonably productive on the field.
Saxon reported late last month that Molina would be willing to accept a reduced role in the second season of a new deal (2022), but it seems for the time being he’s still focused on functioning as a workhorse behind the plate. If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine him settling for anything like the Wainwright deal. Free-agent catcher Robinson Chirinos, who shares an agent (Melvin Roman) with Molina, just signed a one-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee for his age-36 season in Texas, but he doesn’t have Molina’s track record and isn’t ingrained into the very fabric of Rangers history in the same was as Molina, who has reached icon status in St. Louis.
The Cardinals have $101MM on the 2020 books and $115MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, so it’s certainly not a matter of whether they can fit a new Molina deal into the budget. Rather, the question becomes how the two sides account for a potentially waning level of production for Molina while still respecting the level of value he’s provided over the past decade and a half as he carved out a likely road to the Hall of Fame.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Carlos Carrasco Questionable For Opening Day
Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed by inflammation in his right elbow (and, earlier, a hip flexor strain) this spring. And while an MRI confirmed that Carrasco is not dealing with any structural damage, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters today that it could be a “stretch” for Carrasco to be ready for Opening Day (Twitter thread via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Carrasco will be held back from throwing for a few more days.
It’s mixed news for Indians fans, as nothing from Antonetti’s comments suggested that Carrasco is expected to require a significant absence. But the Cleveland organization already has Mike Clevinger on the shelf as he recovers from surgery to repair a partial meniscus tear, and this winter’s slate of rule changes upped the minimum IL stint for pitchers from 10 days back to 15 days. If Carrasco is indeed placed on the injured list, that stint can still be backdated up to three days, but he’d be looking at missing at least the first dozen days of the 2020 campaign.
With Clevinger and Carrasco perhaps both sitting on the IL to begin the season, the Indians will likely give 2019 breakout righty Shane Bieber the Opening Day nod. He’d be followed by a quartet of relatively inexperienced arms: Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko and Logan Allen. (Civale has been bothered by a groin issue himself, though Antonetti indicated today that he’s expected to be ready for the opener.)
The Indians’ rotation is in somewhat of a transitional state — at least as pertains to the final couple of slots. Each of Bieber (controlled through 2024), Clevinger (controlled through 2022) and Carrasco (signed through 2023) should be locks for the next few years, health permitting. However, two of Civale, Plesac, Allen, Plutko and prospects Triston McKenzie and Scott Moss will likely be counted on to eventually seize permanent starting jobs. Viewed through that lens, even brief absences for the club’s top arms early in the season could serve as a continued audition for many arms the organization hopes will emerge as core pieces.
