After a few days of waiting for their complicated trade to be finalized, the Cardinals and Rockies have completed their deal centering on third baseman Nolan Arenado, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The league and the union have signed off on the swap. The Rockies will receive left-hander Austin Gomber, third baseman Mateo Gil, infielder Elehuris Montero and right-handers Tony Locey and Jake Sommers in exchange for Arenado, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previously reported Gomber’s spot in the deal, while Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic tweeted that Gil would be in it.
The two teams agreed to this trade in principle last Friday, but it was held up over the weekend as they worked out finances and which players would be involved. St. Louis is now getting one of the game’s premier infielders, and the team will reportedly add another year and $15MM to Arenado’s contract. As such, he’ll be signed through 2027 at $214MM. The Rockies will absorb $51MM, including some in deferrals, according to Feinsand. The Rockies will pay all of Arenado’s $35MM salary in 2021, Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays.
Along with the added value to his deal, Arenado will be able to opt out of his pact after either of the next two seasons (the Cardinals added the second opt-out as part of the trade; most of the money the Rox owe will be after the opt-outs, Feinsand adds).
Considering the concessions the Cardinals are making, it’s no surprise Arenado waived his no-trade clause to become part of the club. Of course, it helps that the Cardinals look much better equipped to compete for a playoff spot than the Rockies, who saw their relationship with Arenado deteriorate over the past year-plus. The Rockies, whom Arenado played for from 2013-20, earned playoff berths in 2017 and ’18, but they’ve since fallen apart. Arenado, dissatisfied with the team’s inactivity in free agency, was part of trade rumors last offseason and even accused general manager Jeff Bridich of treating him with disrespect.
The Bridich-led Rockies are now wiping most of Arenado’s contract off the books, but they’re also losing a face-of-the-franchise type who won eight straight Gold Gloves and picked up five All-Star nods in their uniform. The 29-year-old Arenado annually blended well-above-average offense with superb defense as a Rockie, though his production at the plate did fall off during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Across 201 plate appearances, Arenado batted a career-worst .253/.303/.434 – down from a lifetime .293/.343/.541. Arenado did walk (15) nearly as much as he struck out (20), and a .241 batting average on balls in play hurt his cause, yet his Statcast numbers also plummeted.
The Cardinals no doubt regard Arenado’s 2020 decline as a small sample blip. He’ll now take over at the hot corner for the club in place of Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman, the Cardinals’ main third base choices last year. Both Carpenter and Edman also have second base experience, so they could divvy up the keystone next season if Kolten Wong exits in free agency. However, it’s possible the Cardinals would rather find a way to jettison Carpenter, a former standout whose output was weak from 2019-20. That may not be doable, though, considering the 35-year-old’s sudden drop-off, the $20.5MM he’s due through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout for ’22) and his no-trade protection.
In order to bolster their situation at third, the Cardinals are parting with a few of their top 30 farmhands, though it doesn’t appear the Rockies are getting any blue-chip talent back. Baseball America ranked Montero 14th, Locey 26th and Gil 28th in the Cardinals’ system prior to the trade.
Montero, who topped out as BA’s 81st-ranked prospect in the sport in 2019, made his pro debut in 2015 and reached the Double-A level in 2019. While he struggled there, the 22-year-old has typically produced above-average numbers in the minors, BA wrote last season that Montero is “a physical, strong hitter with excellent hand-eye coordination, bat speed and plus raw power.” Defensively, Montero’s future could be at first base.
Locey, a third-round pick in 2019, divided his draft year between the rookie and Single-A levels. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Locey 16th in the Cardinals’ system a year ago and wrote that he could be a reliever, as his velocity mixes well with short stints.
Gil, son of former major leaguer Benji Gil, has mostly played rookie ball going back to his first taste of pro action in 2018. Longenhagen wrote in 2020 that the 20-year-old has “low-end regular upside.”
Sommers, 23, is the only prospect the Rox are getting back who was not in BA’s top 30 for the Cardinals at the time of the deal. He’s a 10th-round pick from 2019 who threw 51 2/3 innings of 4.18 ERA ball and struck out more than a batter per inning at the rookie level during his draft year.
The 27-year-old Gomber is the lone player with big league experience on his way to Colorado in this trade. Gomber, a fourth-rounder in 2014, reached the majors for the first time in 2018 and has since been effective over 104 innings for the Cardinals. He sports a lifetime 3.72 ERA, though he was even better than that last year with 29 frames of 1.86 ERA ball (mostly in relief). While Gomber did end the season with below-average figures in strikeout percentage (22.7), walk percentage (12.6) and SIERA (4.82), he should earn a role as part of Colorado’s pitching staff in 2021. He’s not on track to become eligible for arbitration until after 2022 and isn’t scheduled for free agency until the conclusion of the 2025 season.
All said, when considering Arenado’s superstar status and his massive contract, this is one of the most notable trades in recent baseball history. It’s also indicative of two teams going in opposite directions. The Cardinals, who went to the playoffs for the second straight year in 2020, are clearly going for it in a wide-open National League Central. On the other side, the Rockies seem to realize they have little chance to compete in the near term as part of an NL West led by serious contenders in the reigning World Series champion Dodgers and the up-and-coming Padres.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nolan Arenado welcome to the St Louis Cardinals.
Rockies win the trade hands down. Just like marlins won Stanton trade. Of course the public is on the wrong side. Here’s how you can tell who won the trade always. If it’s like 95% of the fans saying one team won the trade the other team probably won it. Fans don’t know anything. Don’t even know how to cheer for their team properly.
you sound like a politician. “you’re all wrong because i know more then you do”
He doesn’t sound like a politician, just an idiot.
Why, because he realized the team was never going to win with so much of their resources tied up in so few players?
On another note, the articles says that CO is paying $51m towards the contract with most after the option years yet it also indicates CO is to pay all of the 2021 salary. Am I reading it wrong as I don’t understand how it could be both.
I don’t understand that either. It makes sense from a Rockies perspective to pay out all the money they owe in the next two years when they aren’t going to be competitive and have a clean slate in 2023.
I can see why unintelligent fans don’t like this. I mean when you been duped by the media and Boras for so long I’d be mad too.
Is there anyway to search for old posts? I’d love to find the articles way I told people the Rockies would need to pay down a significant portion of the deal to move him. Instead of living in a false reality I choose to live in reality. When I make predictions on what a player value is I don’t make up in my head scenarios and different economic climates. If the people on this board want to make more accurate player evaluations they ought to take what they think a player is worth and cut it in half and it’s still probably way off but they won’t be so shocked when the guy is traded for way less than they thought.
Might be a way but the only way I know is to Google your ID. I’ve done that and a couple of times realized how wrong I was on an issue. No one has a crystal ball and this is the closest most of us will get to being a GM.
That’s the problem nobody goes back and looks to see how wrong their opinions were.
Free agents are the best example of this. The media says great move for the team! Never do they say this probably won’t work out.
I get it, it’s exciting your favourite team is getting a star player. Slow down think logically and most importantly think beyond this year because the reason why these deals don’t normally work out isn’t because the player isn’t good now, it’s because he won’t be good in the future.
There’s a difference?
“because the reason why these deals don’t normally work out”
This sentence is the problem in my opinion. I think it’s fairly split down the middle between how many of these deals do work and how many do not.
You’re so smart! How’d you get so smart??
Maybe you could try some of your own medicine here and go back and review your opinion on the Stanton trade.
Stanton has admittedly been a problem in the last 2 years due to injury, and that does put up a big red flag here. But in his 1st year alone he provided more fWAR than Castro did in his 2 years in Miami with 2 full seasons played, then Castro walked as an FA. The 2 prospects acquired in the deal have a total of 1 relief appearance in Miami in the 3 years they’ve been in the org. Guzman is looking like a reliever at best and trending the wrong way performance wise and how he’s regarded as a prospect.
Devers is holding value as a defense first SS with a decent hit tool and might be almost ready to contribute but Miami traded for Jazz Chisholm since acquiring him so…
Stanton could be an albatross contract going forward but since he’s predominantly a DH now there’s a chance of a decent outcome as well. It hangs on that – but Miami may end up with almost nothing out of the deal too – salary relief of course which they do need. But names are also revenue generators – the Yankees operate that way, while Miami has almost never solved that issue.
That has to be the most upvotes I’ve ever seen on a comment.
@DarkSide – politics do fit in that they do factor in some ways how these businesses run. Congresswoman DeGrette has been there for more than 12 years now. Cori Bush was just recently elected and St. Louis wants to win now. Hmmmm…..
Sir, this is an Arbys.
Welcome to Walmart would you like a buggy or a cart
This is a Wendy’s restaurant.
Be careful, those have a tendency to get burned down.
my thoughts exactly, baseballpun!
Or various cities in the Pacific Northwest…
It’s not 1814, but good try.
Don’t forget about 711
@iverbure, Cardinals are certainly taking on some risk, but whether it was worth it, we’ll find out.
So does every small and medium sized city just stop signing franchise players to extension unless they can be persuaded to sign for well below market deals? Rockies really didn’t get much of anything back prospect wise, just a lot of quantity and the supposed headliner, Gomber has yet to prove himself truthfully.
Them paying 50m and receiving this light of a package for a top 3 at his position should be proof against these sized cities locking up their star caliber players as trade value down the road no longer exists as it used to.
Yes, I think that’s exactly what it shows. It’s what the Rays do, pretty much. Despite people on here crying about them trading good players, it’s how they avoid having to totally blow it up every couple years.
Obviously every case is different but first I’d suggest not making promises you can’t keep. Indians told people in advance Lindor was getting traded and they still cried and stomped their feet.
The mid market teams in my opinion are much better off trading away these guys like the Indians have done before they get to free agency. I’d choose higher upside guys than what the Indians are doing though. Taking back 4th of types and non tendering them is a good way to eventually bottom out.
Until they change the cba and revenue sharing this is how you effectively run a mid market team. Mid markets can’t afford to risk getting stuck with one albatross contract even if the guy performs decent. Joey Votto is a perfect example. And worst case scenario which isn’t that bad you keep him if it’s a year you’re close to winning and QO and take the pick. Because the draft money you get with it is probably more valuable than most of the 40 man rule 5 eligible guys teams are trying to pedal to you who stall at AAA.
The light return has more to do with current economics than your typical large contract trade. There is a currently a ton of uncertainty as far as the economics of MLB go. Teams dont know how many if any fans will be in stadiums. With 81 home games it by far has most profound impact of the 4 major US sports. Its not just tickets prices they re losing, comcessions, parking, merchandise, in stadium ads etc. The small and medium market teams have to currently make some pretty tough economic decisions.
@john silver above
Agreed John, right now there’s no trade value on a circa $35 million dollar six year contract. But when was there?
If I was a Cards fan I’d be delighted. They’ve given up a barely fit maybe serviceable reliever and little more than lottery tickets, to get Arenado for $10million less AAV than Anthony Rendon.
As you state – it says more of the idiocy of the Colorado front office to extend rather than to trade Arenado (say) when he had a year or a year and a half of control in 2017 or 2018.
As an A’s fan I don’t expect us to extend Matt Chapman as an exact comparison….
Teams try to make the money up front on these contracts, and it doesn’t work out most times. You gotta know paying a guy 20+ million after he’s 35 is gonna be negative value at that point. Smart teams are the small ones simply because they CAN’T risk these long deals…they try and luck out and buy a season or two of free agency.
The only thing baseball fans..the deeper ones…don’t input enough is that it’s not just money to the production. These guys have incredible marketing value to a team. They’re selling a lot of team jerseys. Sure, nothing beats a winner…but names still draw fans. That’s why Alex Gordon was more valuable to KC than he’d have been on the open market. Hosmer would have been same way of San Diego hadn’t given him stupid money.
Unless it’s been changed, I’m pretty sure teams split merchandise sales evenly.
1984- That might actually be. I guess my bigger point is that popular players drive add-on sales…tickets…concessions… That it’s fair to put a contract on field ability, but there’s also added value to star players.
Kind of a mess now. Our best players really arent valued monetarily as they should be. The rules allow pay suppression. It’s kind of the game now that the metrics have stratified everything so much.
I heard it said one day that baseball has become math and lost narrative. That said what I had been thinking. Baseball needs to get back to selling narrative. It’s become TOO efficient for it’s own good.
Ok, I guess the Pirates absolutley fleeced the Rays in the Archer trade.
Montero is the next big thing in Colorado!
This is a very interesting (and insane and totally wrong) angle
If I were the Rockies I’d just trade every player in the organization for money. That’s who I’d cheer for they know how to run a team.
? I suppose you are not a fan because obviously you know everything and also cheer for teams properly? This is the most asinine post ever
Yep. He’s barely above average ish away from Coors. And the back end of the contract will not be good. I’d say the Redbirds got fleeced
above average ish? how did Matt Holiday do in Busch? Larry Walker away from Coors? How has DJ done in the New York? Players can leave Coors and do just fine. No way Cards got fleeced.
Tulo was good in Toronto before the injuries ended him.
and many of the elite players who have left Coors in their prime have done well.
Yea i agree. I think the biggest thing people forget is the tool leaving Coors for a 10 plus days at a time and going back takes on the body do to the altitude. Thats being said i think Nolan will be above average offensively once he settles in maybe around a 115 ops+ but hes prob the best 3rd bagger in the game
They all put up meaningfully lower home numbers versus their days at Colorado, except for DJ, but that’s less than 1.5 years sample size. They did just fine but the stupidity of Colorado giving him that contract. Nobody is saying Arenado is going to flop. Most likely he’ll put up above average numbers in St. Louis but obviously not the star player he was with Colorado when the numbers are not there. Arenado is 9th in wRC+ from 2018-2020 among third basemen over 1,500 plate appearances. I think this points to above average. Over the life of that contract it will remain to be seen how quickly that contract turns really bad once his production falls off.
I’m a Cardinal fan it’s the same thing they said when the Cardinals got Big Mac or Jim Edmonds or Lou Brock. I love these fleece deals!
I’m fairly sure no one thought the Angels were fleecing the Cardinals when they acquired Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy for Edmonds…
One of the worst trades in Halo history.
Slashed pretty well in Busch
Kennedy got us to our only world series
Most players hit worse on the road compared to their home ballpark.
Matt Chapman might have something to say about that.
I mean to be fair. Each team one exactly 1 World Series with their sides of the trade, sooooo.
Fools never know when to refrain from speaking foolishness. That is garbage, man.
No he wasn’t
I guess you missed Game 5 of the 2002 ALCS where Adam Kennedy hit 3 HRs & won ALCS MVP and then was WS Champion. He was a vital player on a Championship roster.
Although Kennedy was key in the 2002 Angels run, one has to wonder what could have been if the team had Edmonds and managed to keep him, or traded him for something better than Bottenfield and Kennedy. Regardless, Angels earned a hard fought WS ring.
I started following the Angels closely in June 2002 and I quickly realized that the team was special and the keys were the MI of David Eckstein @ SS and Adam Kennedy @ 2B surrounded by the Great players. OF was set with Garrett Anderson in LF, Darin Erstad in CF and Tim Salmon in RF.
They would have DH’ed Salmon, moved Erstad to RF for Edmonds in CF and done without Brad Fullmer, who was jacked.
Who’s on 2B? I don’t know. Erstad won a gold glove in CF and 1B only player I know who accomplished this as well as 100 RBIs leading off.
Also, all players usually hit better at home than away.
That’s the magic question. Who knows how the Angels would have approached 2B without the Edmonds trade.
You can’t use Yankees stadium as an example as DJ still has some pretty extreme splits
They had Scott Spiezio, who had played 300 games at 2B in his career before joining the Angels. And Chone Figgins came up in September and probably could have come up earlier if necessary
Eckstien was a menace to opposing teams. Him and Adam were key to the halos in 2002. Eckstien later won 2006 WS MVP
I get it. It’s always difficult to tell who actually won a trade. I’m a cardinals fan and I am excited. My question though…are you a fan or an executive?
@iver, wow, great analysis of the trade. “Fans are idiots so if the fans like a trade, it will go bust.” And how exactly do us fan-idiots cheer on our teams improperly? Just curious?
By standing on your heads and facing the wrong way. I’m pretty sure that is what he meant. That is improper cheering, no doubt about it. Whenever I see that happening I point and yell, “improper!”
They routinely ask for things that would cripple the team and make no sense whatsoever. Yankees fans saying who cares about the tax. Dodgers fans saying it, which is hilarious given the very reason they’ve been a power house is due to not going over. Indian fans wanting to resign Lindor. Braves fans wanting to get stuck with a huge bad contract.
They live in this false reality where it makes sense to call the owner cheap instead of realizing teams win all the time with various payrolls.
You should stop commenting, iverbure. Your idiotic posts are getting you hammered here and serve no purpose other than to reveal you as a fool. Also, your myopic generalizations are completely baseless. Consider that friendly advice.
By the way, how does any of that constitute “cheering?” You need to get an education, iverbure.
Roundabout way of saying you know I’m right. Don’t worry I screenshot this and will remind you in the future who was right.
So the Cardinals, who have a gaping hole at third base, go out and trade for arguably the best third baseman in the majors while giving up what is essentially their spare parts and they are “crippling the team and making no sense whatsoever?” Weird take. This basically reads as no one should ever sign a free agent ever.
I essentially see this as the Cardinals signing a top of the line free agent under market rate. Theyll play him this season and not even oay him a dime. It lowers the entire contract. I’m curious about the buyout….does that exist? Because if so….and he buys out…the Cardinals pulled off a heist…playing a guy like Arenado one season and not even paying for it. I assume that one year extension on the deal voided the buyout.
A decent amount of what he’s saying does hold some truth. There are a lot of fans that root for/want to see their team make acquisitions that ultimately would be detrimental to the team.
How many times do you see people on here post trades where a mediocre to bad team is trading prospects to acquire someone that’ll push them from 72 wins to 74 wins? Or want a teams to sign a player to a contract that makes no sense for that team to sign?
So is the way he chose to say it generalizing too much, sure. But it’s not a completely crazy or baseless claim.
@iver I’m all for free speech and minimal censorship, but I hope the admins remove this post due to its morbid stupidity
You thought the Yankees won the Stanton deal didn’t you? Be honest!
Iver is clearly a flat earther
That’s the dumbest logic imaginable. The Rockies already committed paying that money. So they just acquired nothing and are on the hook for 51 million while not having one of the best players in baseball anymore. MLB should foreclose their franchise. The quality of the league is worsened from that deal.
They acquired the ability to get out of paying that money….How can you saying something is the dumbest logic ever then post what you did?
Were you trying to be meta?
1984- I’m all for free market. But I’d anything triggered the old “Best Interest of Baseball” clause or the Commissioner..this would have been it. It’s a business, but it acts as a public trust too. Charlie Finley’s trades in the 70s were larger dumps or players that got blocked, but probably similar in impact and salary.
I’ve said it before…it’s a smart business move given so much uncertainty, but lousy baseball move. To me it’s Monfort hedging against his team to even be relevant in the consumer market place. It’s a regrouping. If this was Home Depot it’s smart…but no one is cheering for Home Depot.
OK, let’s see…the Rockies send off their best player ever, get nothing in return, and have to add $50M. yeah, big win for the Rockies…
Sending back 5 players and adding a year plus an opt out, definitely sounds like a decent return. They got an MLB experienced starting pitcher with 5 years of control. Add 2 top 30 infield prospects and 2 more pitchers. NA can walk after 21 or 22. Now tell all of us how the Rockies got nothing in return.
And they didn’t SPEND another $50MM, they SAVED themselves $163MM over the next seven years. That’s an extra $23MM they can spend every year through 2027. (Ask the Braves what you can do with that much money every year—Donaldson in 2019, Ozuna in 2020.) Arenado will make STL better, but Colorado has a chance to be better off themselves with the prospects and the $$$.
Imagine going to the dealership with a $260K car that you’re still on the hook for $200K, then trading it in for a bicycle, a skateboard, roller blades and a helmet, AND you still have to pay $50K to make it happen. Yeah, the Rockies made a great deal.
They got trash. Control is not greater than skill and production. At least one year of high quality, if not two (?) for lottery tickets of the highest magnitude. A reliever with control problems in Coors as the headliner? Yeah,great deal. You focus on quantity when the quantity is of low quality. Fans love confirmation bias. “All our prospects are valuable.”
I’m not saying everyone in the deal is guaranteed to be a star. But I have been watching Gomber the last 3 years and he’s been good.How can any of us say all the players going to Colorado are trash? I would never spend $260k on a car unless it made me more money than a $100k car.
Lol “the Rockies win the trade hands down.” They were stupid to sign him in the first place if they couldn’t afford the contract, so there’s definitely no way they won a trade where they pay him a boatload of money to play somewhere else AND get nothing of value in return.
Rox need a new GM, a new owner, and to strip their team down to the studs. Trade everyone for whatever you can get and start building your next competitive squad. There’s no reason to have Blackmon, Story, etc on the 2021 team.
The Rockies got out of a contract of a disgruntled employee. They picked up five prospects, who they value, even tho you do not. This is more than any other team offered for NA. Guess that could mean the Cardinals overpaid. In reality, both sides agreed, so its a fair trade.
Saying that one previous mistake precludes subsequent moves from being considered a win is faulty logic.
Lol, “disgruntled.” You mean the same attitude and mindset he had for years before the contract extension and then the trade? The bozos in the Rox FO should have been familiar enough with this guy to know that he wasn’t going to be happy with a team on autopilot that wasn’t trying to win.
If the Rox feel they “had to do what they had to do” then great, but that doesn’t mean their own idiocy didn’t get them into the situation to begin with.
Derp
Fools never know when to refrain from speaking foolishness. That is garbage, man.
Then by definition, you don’t know anything as well. Let’s all just sit in a circle.
And you are just a fan, so you don’t know what you are talking about. Get a clue!
mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/latest-on-trade-availab…
Couple people suggesting no way the Rockies would trade Arenado and have to pay his salary. You owe some people in this comment section apologies for being wrong.
iverbure nailed it, right down to the % of fans that don’t know anything.
Only way the Cardinals win this trade is if Arenado opts out. If that happens, the Cardinals stole him, highway robbery. Since the Rockies are paying all of his salary for the 21 season, plus 15 million of deferred monies, they get the peak age talents of Arenado for peanuts.
The problem is, the odds of him opting-out, I would say are virtually nil. So they are going to pay through the nose on those last 5 years of his contract for a deteriorating talent.
Contracts like these should be reserved for the largest of the large market clubs, not a club that receives a supplemental pick in the draft every year. Oh, by the way, why does a club that has non-pandemic yearly revenue that approaches 400 million receive an extra high round draft pick??. I know their fans overperforming their official market size is the likely reason, but if I’m the Rays or Royals or even the Brewers, who’s fans actually out perform the Cardinals fans relative to market size, I’m still shaking my head.
I think winning the MVP every year of his contract would also mean the Cardinals win this trade. Also if the Cardinals won the World Series this year and none of the guys sent to Colorado play a meaningful inning of Major League Baseball. Also the second point plus basically any meaningful contribution from Arenado at the major league level. Also if they get all of Arenado’s remaining good years than dump him and his salary in another trade.
In case you couldn’t figure out where I was going with this, there’s an infinite amount of scenarios where the Cardinals could win this trade in addition to the one specific one you mentioned.
Lay off the whip its dude
And like I said on dec 11. Opt outs if the player opt outs is team friendly and there is no better example than this.
If Rockies keep Arenado this year and he puts up absolutely monster numbers and opts out. That would have been the best case scenario. Do they lose him for nothing yeah, but they get the payroll flexibility which I don’t care what anyone thinks here is more valuable to owners and general managers than anything.
But like I said on dec 11 here
mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/latest-on-trade-availab…
Getting Arenado to opt out and get out from that money owed to him is the best case scenario instead of paying him to play on the dodgers. I was wrong about the dodgers part only.
Now if you want to say Arenado wasn’t ever going to opt out of that deal I would agree. However one of the big stumbling blocks to a trade is gone and the team has slightly more leverage if Arenado is productive for 2021.
Explain what you mean. Give an example and don’t be general.
I think both clubs did the right thing in this trade. For the Rockies to get out from under that contract (especially if Nolan’s bat does not rebound well) is a + in itself. Getting 5 pieces back in this trade at least allows them to add some organizational depth to the team. The Cardinals have to stay competitive against teams like the Padres & Dodgers in the NL.
Exactly! Rockies stole from St. Louis, especially given the Arenado opt outs still in play. Wont the Red Birds be unhappy when he opts out to go occupy 3B in LA.
Did you guys listen to Joel Sherman on mlb now? Oh course not you don’t watch informative baseball shows that give you proper information.
“Fans don’t know anything.” That’s probably the first time I’ve seen widespread ignorance used as the core point to an argument of actually winning a trade. That’s probably a red flag of poor logic.
Not all prospects are the same, and not all prospect packages are the same. For instance, the package of prospects that the Rockies got back from the Cardinals pales in comparison to the package that the Marlins got back from the Cardinals for two seasons of Ozuna.
Austin Gomber could be a solid mid-rotation pitcher at his best, most likely is a good back-of-the-rotation lefty starter. He’s not a underrated guy like Zack Gallen was. The Cardinals used him as a swing man, although he was looking at a possible full-time rotation spot this season.
Elehuris Montero was one of the Cardinals’ better third basemen prospects, although his short-range defense and the existance of Nolan Gorman probably meant he would be shifted to first base. Then, his 2019 season was derailed by two wrist injuries, and he hasn’t played since, so we don’t know how those injuries affected his best attribute–his offense and power.
Mateo Gil is a no floor, high ceiling shortstop who is years away. He’s pretty much a lottery ticket ath this point.
Jake Sommers was a mid-round college draft pick and probably is just an organizational guy. He was a a 22-year-old relief pitcher who struggled at rookie ball in 2019.
Tony Locey, another college draftee, most likely will be a power reliever at the major league. He’s got a good fastball that gets high 90s velocity coming out of the pen and a hard slider that can get good.
So, for Arenado, the Rockies got a mid-rotation to swingman lefty, a damaged bat prospect, two reliever prospects, and a lottery pick we won’t know the return on for years.
That’s…not good. They didn’t get one player who will definitely replace the value on the field, in expected WAR, and with the fanbase that Arenado gave them. Only if Gil becomes the second coming of Ozzie Smith.
For comparison…for Ozuna, a less valuable player than Arenado without the consistent track record, the Marlins got one of the Cardinals’ best starting pitching prospects (Sandy Alcantara), another very good starting pitching prospect (Zach Gallen), an all-speed, BABIP-dependent centerfield prospect (Mags Sierra), and a just-drafted pitcher who had good stuff (Daniel Castano).
The Marlins got value–three well-regarded propects with MLB apperances, and one who was in BA’s top 100. The Rockies got quantity, and with the high attrition rate in prospects’ careers, that’s a pretty weak return on one of the better players in baseball.
He may hit a buck 30 away from Coors and have a horrible contract, but he can play D.
Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeez Nuuuuuuuuutz
If this is what a return for Arenado gets then 1 year of Kris Bryant must be a really small return. Wow.
Mozeliak is like this dude is gonna love STL so much were not only gonna give him one opt out but 2… Arenado and Goldschmidt on the same team, something that would only happen at all star games! Only way the infield could get better is if Wong returns. Cardinals then would have gold glove caliber defense at every infield position. I’m excited to watch this team. Great young pitching, gold gloves in the infield and outfield on defense, one of the best bullpens, and now more offense which is where they struggled last year bottom 5 in the League and still made the playoffs.
I’m drawing a blank. Who’s the GG shortstop?
Paul DeJong has been nominated for a gold glove, being given real consideration for the award is enough to fit under the umbrella of “gold glove caliber”
I have been a Cards fan since 1951 and really hope that the pickup of Arenado works out great for both sides. It seems like a match made in heaven. Nolan gives us the pop we needed so badly and he brings us the great defense we’ve needed at the hot corner for a long time — since Scott Rolen.
One thing worries me. Did the Cards insist on a physical of Arenado in this deal? I ask because they he had a shoulder problem last year which was statistically his worse year in his career. I look back on the broken deal to pick up Ozuna. We gave up 4 young up and coming stars to the Marlins to rent Ozuna’s for two years and we got a guy with a bad shoulder that we knew about going in. Ozuna was almost useless on defense for those two years and his offense was well under his last year with the Marlins. His offense has come back with the Braves …but his shoulder has never recovered. He’s a DH on a team that can’t use him as a DH unless MLB does a repeat on the NL DH. If Arenado is only going to be a part time player rather than that super stud he was for the Rox on defense AND offense …is he worth that monster contract? Time will tell. A physical sure would be reassuring but I’ve not heard a word about one. Has anyone else?
Bigly
WHO ELSE IS IN IT AHHGHGHH
Not Gorman.
Lol where is Gorman going to play then? Seems silly to waste his 3B defense. Hopefully he will be used in a different trade.
what? you were wrong?
I wonder if he can play 2nd?
he’s not a defense first player so it doesnt matter.
Yep lol – I still was right in that I said they were going to get a haul of prospects, which others were saying it would be a straight salary dump, so 50/50 I’ll walk away from the crystal ball now haha
Remember Arenado has an opt-out after the 2021 season, so I would not be in any rush to get rid of Gorman just yet. He is only 20 years old and hasn’t played above High-A yet.
If they don’t use him in a trade, they could keep him for a year as insurance in the (unlikely) event Arenado opts out.
Haul of prospects? They got the #8 #19 & #22 ranked prospects within the Cardinals organization.
That’s not exactly a “haul”, my friend.
He’s there in the worst case scenario that Arenado opts out. Or, in 4 years when Goldschmidt retires. Or, I can bet by the time he’s ready, there will be Universal DH in MLB, so he can DH.
A dh, reliever, and weak bat ss. Heck of a prospect haul.
Gorman is average defensively at best. He’s also just 20. He’ll be coming up just about the time Goldschmidt moves on. Gorman is likely the future at 1B. The DH will be in the NL next year too if not this season.
Gorman can play 3rd if Arenado opts out or DH if he stays
@marty defense isn’t exactly Gorman’s calling card. His bat will earn him a spot somewhere. He could end up at 1st or Corner OF
Montero, Gil, Sommers, Gomber, Locey
Who, huh, what, Gomber, and oh.
Oh played for St. Louis and Colorado already. He’s back in the KBO now. Samsung Lions.
ha!
Ha is presently playing in Taiwan.
Oh!
Must be nice to be a fan that will occasionally spend some money. Me? I’m a Rays fan. We nibble on leftovers.
Hopefully they move that team. You people don’t deserve it. Should ask the fans in Nashville, Montreal or Portland if they support the team even if it has the lowest payroll and they’ll trade away the expensive franchise bum every 3 years. Betcha they’ll all still want a team.
I live in Oregon. they wouldn’t support a baseball team here. I have struggled greatly to find baseball fans since I moved here. it seems very unamerican but they don’t care about baseball here.
that’s terrible!
I think Omaha,Nebraska would be perfect for a team. Not that I want expansion. Just saying if a franchise relocated. Lots of Royals fans around there because KC is closest. Big population and home of the College World Series. Lots of baseball fans in the area.
There are no fans in Montreal.
TB has done really well with a low payroll team. I’d not trash the team or their fans based on what I’ve seen from them in recent years. The Cards have paid Carp almost 20MM a year for the past 3 years …for what? He hasn’t learned to stop pulling the ball into the shift and his offense has gone from good to very mediocre. His defense has always been weak. He has no range, a weak arm and a hard glove. Since when has that been worth nearly 20MM a year?? Who on the TB team is being paid that much for that little?
And get to watch there team consistently in the play off hunt
You legit just made the World Series. I’m a Mariners fan. Screw our spending, I’d gladly trade our levels of competitiveness.
Rays fan here…totally fine w how they do things. They are consistently successful using a specific model–I personally appreciate the rational spending.
I am a rays fan myself. They just went to the world series. Who cares how they did it. They did it. I seen plenty of teams spend 150 200 million or more and get knocked out early or not even make it. Why would you be concerned how much the talent costs?
because it’s cool to hate on “cHeAp OwNeRz”
My hate is aimed squarely at owners who act like they can’t afford to make any moves at all. Or who say “bAsEbAlL iSnT rEaLlY tHaT pRoFiTAbLE”
Wow
Amazing
What is the return ?
$50 million or so.
4 to 5 mid level prospects.
And a few of Mickey Callaway’s “special” pictures to seal the deal.
I heard angels away clubhouse manager bubba Harkin is also involved
A real sticky situation.
lmaooo
Lol that made me laugh more than it should have
For all intents and purposes a bag of balls (no offense to the players going back).
Gomber is a good pitcher…solid #3-4
Maybe not at Coors though…
Gomber is a 4 or 5 at best and will get rocked in Colorado.
let’s see the official return. pretty exciting for cardinal fans
Gomber, Gil, Montero, Locey and Sommers is the return.
Jesus, report something. We know this was happening….what does it entail?
yep that’s midling at best. Enjoy mediocrity Rox fans.
Fleeeeeeeeced.
I was hoping to see a future Zac Veen and Nolan Gorman tandem in Colorado, but now I can’t…
A very good and logical move. Trade your best player for nothing. Baseball is great, not broken at all!
It’s nobody’s fault but the Rockies so your comment makes no sense.
Depends on your definition of ‘nothing’. The Rockies get a decent amount of salary relief. Could this end up being a bad trade for the Rox? Yes. Could it be a Giancarlo 2.0 situiation? Also yes.
And what are they doing with this “salary relief”? I’m sure it won’t go to ownership’s pockets, right?
Also something that sounds like what happened around the time of the Stanton trade.
What makes this comparable to the Stanton situation? The length of the contract isn’t nearly as bad, plus Arenado is a premium defender at an important position. Sure he’ll decline, but if he still puts up decent power numbers and plays a GG 3B they’ll be more than happy.
@CalcetinesBlancos that’s spot on about why this isn’t Stanton 2.0. There’s 6Y/$199M left here and STL gets $50M so it’s like 6Y/$149M. Stanton was 10Y/$295M but NYY gets $30M making it 10Y/$265M. AAV for Arenado is effectively lower and there are 4 less years on the deal.
Stanton has had a couple monster years like that MVP season in 2017, but then other years where he’s good not great. Arenado has been a consistent all star level performer since 2015. That combined with his elite defense makes him a way less risky pickup.
The other glaring difference is their durability. Arenado has been a rock at third, while Stanton has always had trouble staying on the field.
He makes a ton of money, has opt outs and a NTC that dramatically reduced the leverage of the team trading him away. Stanton and Arenado are nearly perfect comparison.
This never would’ve happened in the old days before money took over the game. It’s not like the Red Sox in 1919 would’ve sold their best player to the Yankees for $100,000 (about $1.5M in today’s dollars)… oh, wait.
Welcome to StL Mr. Arenado!
Return is GOMBER & a PYLE of others ??
WELL GOOOOOOOOOOOOLY !!
I see what you did there. 🙂
This is amazing. I don’t praise the Cardinals much …2011… but this is a really… really good trade. I don’t care about the contract, this is miniscule. Tiny. Stand up and give yourself a round of applause St. Louis. This is a steal.
Neither do the Cardinal fans on here. Despite always being in the top half if not top 10 in payroll and fielding a solid team, the ownership is called cheap and gm is terrible.
We don’t know about the GM. Nobody does. He’s got the best job in the world. However the POBO is an idiot. This trade seems too good to be true and MO’s track record for trades and signings makes me very skeptical.
And while it’s unlikely he’ll opt out next year because off all the FAs, he got the 2022 opt out thrown in to waive his NTC for a reason. So when he opts out in two years to go somewhere else, at least the cardinals practically got him for free for two years.
they are one of the most successful for dollar teams while collecting revenue sharing. (deserved or not) it’s amazing the flak they get from their own fans.
What color is your nose, troll? Brown? I’m guessing a deep shade of brown.
This reminds me a little of the moves the Giants made to acquire Longo and Cutch past their prime. Goldy and Nado aren’t quite as far past their prime so the drop off should be less and maybe things work out better for them. Regardless it is a risky move to improve their chances of winning anything only slightly.
Only slightly?
Garbage ass return yikes
Thought you said Gorman was going?
Just shows you how bad the original contract was. They had to eat $50mm, Cardinals had to extend by $15mm, and Rockies only got a couple of decent prospects. Many may say Cards got the better deal, but yeah, they’re assuming the risk and bailing Colorado out of the bad contract. Plus, if any of those prospects actually amount to something they’ll be kicking themselves, especially if Arenado flops.
Absolutely disgustingly bad return.
Not going to lie, I wish the Giants had been in on Arenado.
He’s crushed the Giants for years and a flop with Longoria would have been great; Rox take on Longo’s last 2 years and SF takes Nolan straight up except last 2 years of Nolan’s deal Rox kick in more money.
The Cardinals will be a force this year.
I love Arenado but I am not convinced he will put up the same numbers going forward regardless of where he plays. The glove will play anywhere and is fun to watch.
I am sure the Gs checked in. Assuming the Rox did not want to trade him within the same division. Also, if Arenado did not want to go to the Gs that would have sank it right there. Pretty sure that after the Longo debacle the Gs are very wary of taking on that kind of long term $, especially after a player is coming off of a down year. I think the Gs are being super protective of their prospects, in part to justify the rebuild and not going after big ticket FAs
After all my complaining about DeWitt being unwilling to spend on some talent to make the team competitive, I take it back. Arenado could be the spark that sets this team on fire. His terrific defense at 3rd should help make up for the loss of Wong at 2nd and his bat should spur on the rest of the team to better hitting. Opposing pitchers will not be able to pitch around Goldie in the future. The Cards should have a lock on some post season play and if some of the guys who were hurt last year (Mikolas, Hicks, Reyes, Fowler) can come back to their previous form we should be competitive as a World Series team.
Now if our front office wants to make this team a real solid World Series threat, we should take further advantage of the Rockies rebuild and their willingness to deal away talent and see what kind of deal they can get on Blackmon and Marquez. We certainly have some young trade bait and the owner and front office finally seem willing to do some upgrades.
Love your 2nd paragraph. Yeah after this the Rookies look like the kid you can’t wait to trade baseball cards with.
Montero – #8 MLB.com STL prospect
Locey – #19 MLB.com STL prospect
Gil – #22 MLB.com STL prospect
Gomber last made the 2017 list and was #14 then, but is MLB currently. Seems about right for Arenado’s contract.
I like Gomber, but besides that its meh. Montero ranks high but had a dreadful 2019 so that’s concerning. others are lottery tickets imo.
Now they can go full buzzsaw on that roster and try to emerge in 3 years when they might actually have a chance.
Know anything about Jake Sommers? Apparently he is included too.
Got rocked in the low minors by HS kids. He’s a garbage soft tosser
Cardinals gave up organizational dog droppings to the rockies.
Anyone opposed to using this comment as the comment section for the callaway report? I’ll start: odd timing for these reports to surface. How does this affect Bauer to the angels? Also, congrats to the cards and cards fans. Lived there for 4 years and miss the city.
they really don’t want people doing that, fyi. not going to report you or anything, but you might just get any post to this effect deleted.
Not trying to make it a political discussion. Just interested in the baseball effects. I get the reasons for turning the comments off, though. Honestly, I’ve seen way more heated comment sections in the least expecting posts. It can happen anywhere…
I’m opposed. Use the MLBPA rejection thread.
That post should have its comments turned off. It’s a ticking time bomb…
I am opposed. Apparently you don’t care sence you started it anyways before anyone could provide feedback to your ?. This is the Nolan Arenado trade article. If you want to talk about Bauer I am sure there will be a article on him shortly or go into one of the dozens of others already posted. Not sure it has any effect regardless being that Bauer wants 30 plus million and he isn’t a 30 old something hitter.
For the Rockies to make this deal for this kind of return I think Story should be available for the Braves and either move Dansby to 3rd for a year or move Story there for a year until he hits FA.
In all honesty Rockies may as well blow it up like the Pirates get as many power arm prospects as they can in any deals.
I may be in the minority but I don’t feel it’s a bad return
Gorman in place of Montero would be better though
As a Cards fan I would have rather sent Gorman instead of Montero.
Why? If you doubt Gorman sticks at third, then Montero is worse.
Also, Gorman is the #43 best prospect in baseball. Even if you think Montero is better, why sacrifice that much value.
Gorman will either move to 1st when Goldy retires. or he’ll be the DH, cause face it, Universal DH will be a thing within 5 years.
Gorman isn’t the best defensively, but he’s got a lot of pop. Montero is a bit better but he’s not as good of a hitter. Gorman is already better than him, and he’s 2 years younger.
kind of a weird take, imo. Interested in hearing why.
Should have prefaced that. Obviously Gorman is the better asset due to the “prospect rankings” thus greater future trade value. I can see Gorman being a Tyler O’Neil 2.0. Outside of his injury year in which the Cards skipped him 2 lvls Montero has improved with the bat each year while Gorman has gotten worse. Montero is more consistent while Gorman seems extremely streaky. I know the age for level and all that, but Montero is only a yr older. Montero stroke has vastly improved with a 15-20% k rate. While Gorman sits consistently at 25-30% k rate. Just my take
Montero is a 1st baseman in the making, Gil is the gem.
Fangraphs has scouted montero and said his plate approach is scary bad. They think he has upside skills but not smart at bats.
Thats just plain stupid. Montero’s stock dropped fast after his horrible 2019 with Springfield in a notorious hitters league. Not only is Gorman way better… Jordan Walker has more of a future than Montero
I have a feeling a lot of baseball lifers are about to get outed by women who are finally having the courage to come out and speak. As if baseball needed more clouds sprinkled over it. I really don’t know what to say, I stopped watching the NFL a long long time ago based on the countless stories of inappropriate behavior. I was done a year or so before the Ray Rice incident.
I am hoping this was just a few bad eggs bc if this is rampant throughout baseball it would break my heart. It’s tough to give them the benefit of the doubt when guys like Callaway and Porter behaviors are considered open secrets.
And not to single out one particular executive, but Sandy Anderson needs to step down and disappear from baseball immediately. One bad hire that turned out to be a creep? Okay that’s bad luck. Now it turns out there is a history. Not to mention he ousted the reporter that was stalked by Porter by giving up the country she was from. I can no longer look at that as an accident.
Im so disappointed right now.
With Stantons situation it was quite public (where he would go, etc)
Was this the best the Rockies could do? Aside from the Dodgers not being considered in division, was everyone else out? no Jays? Red Sox? Mets, Nats, Braves.
Were they all out or was St. Louis the only team Arenado would go to?
Yes St. Louis was the only team he would go to and the only team that was aware he was on the market.
Yeah, I mean, you’d have thought there would be an article about Arenado not being happy in Colorado.
Man MLB The Show 21 Franchise is going to be good this year. So many stacked rosters, hopefully more moves to make the rosters even better.
As much as I love to see the Cards picking up Nolan Arendado one thing sticks in my memory that burned us not long ago. We gave up 4 very talented prospects to Miami to pick up Ozuna who we knew had a shoulder problem. The 2 years we had him as a rental he had never recovered his defensive ability and only showed a limited amount of offense that he had right up until we got him. Being that he played last year as a DH it shows that he never really recovered on defense. We knew he had that bad shoulder when we got him and we also know that Nolan had a bad shoulder last season that led to his worst performance in his career. I sure hope most fervently that we had a physical on Arenado as part of this trade.
I can’t imagine our front office making the same mistake twice on a huge trade with a guy that if he’s healthy and has a great year might be a one year rental and if his wing is still broken might never come back to his prior greatness. Let’s hope he comes back strong and hope he’s willing to do an early extension.
That shoulder was terrible. Even effected his judgment and routes.
Look at Bridich’s free agent signings since he became gm in 2014. He has spent more than $280M and not one has been productive. And now he has to trade Arenado for peanuts because he pit in the opt out clause. He stands alone as the worst GM in MLB and it’s not even close.
I like the initial list of players better from a Cards perspective… Gil and Montero are decent prospects with a ton of upside. Gomber is 27 and he is what he is. Creates a little uncertainty in the Cards rotation with Hudson out for the yr.
A guy who hit .188 in AA has a “ton of upside”?
He was playing with a broken hamate bone in his wrist not to mention he was jumped 2 levels. Yes Montero has a ton of upside. Look at every other season. He improved every yr up until then.
Either way we got a steal. I was just saying I would have rather sent the package of prospects that was initially reported.
Anything can happen, but as of today I wouldn’t bet on gills bat being anything you regret losing. Montero has more upside with the bat but looks like dh material. I mean they did get Nolan Arenado for 25 percent off so I wouldn’t loss sleep on losing these prospects.
Cards could still add a starter. Plenty of cheap options still available
Bobby… have you ever seen Gil play? Numbers are terrible and if you watch his ABs.. totally overmatched. Montero can’t play 3rd for anything. 1b/DH and he’s yet to show the power for that. He’s got flop written all over him if he doesn’t tap into the raw power he seems to have. Gomber won’t really be missed. The rotation is set even without Dakota. Flaherty, Waino, Kim, Mikolas, and Martinez. With Ponce de Leon, Woodford, Reyes,and possibly Cabrera if needed. Plus Helsley could be stretched out if needed
Eating the $50 million is what makes this hard to swallow- Arenado arguably had negative value with his contract, but not that negative.
Makes you wonder- if Mets were willing to eat the entire contract, could they have gotten Story along with Arenado for essentially nothing? It would seems so- you would think if a team made an offer right now where they would take Story in exchange for $50 million that Colorado would absolutely jump at the chance (not that MLB would allow it).
Good points all around – Perhaps this was (another) mishap by Col and then there was only 1 bidder left-
Ida waited till break at least, maybe he hates it so much he makes it clear hes opting out no matter what
Or…a guy coming off his worst season and an injury in this market, with his contract….really did have that much negative value.
I personally would have gambled on him in 2021. Hope he puts up huge numbers, and if he opts out good ( not sure if they could QO him or not at that point if not oh well) and if he doesn’t opt out that’s one less hurler and you have more leverage next winter. He still has a no trade but if he’s that disgruntled he would waive it to most competitive teams at that point you would think.
I can see that, but if he has a bad year and doesn’t opt out would you even be able to move his contract at that point? If the injury or poor performance show to be more than just a fleeting issue you might be hard pressed to find a team willing to take him even if you eat more money.
If you are able to find a team to take him anyway, how much more does it take to get rid of him at that point? I’m not sure how much you’d even save if he has a good 2021, so I can understand thinking the risk of him being bad again does not outweigh the savings potential if he is good.
I would assume the Rockies took all of this into consideration and decided that the potential savings if he has a good 2021 isn’t worth the risk if he has a bad 2021, but they also agreed to sign him to this contract in the first place, so I might be giving them too much credit.
I can the reasoning for taking the gamble on him playing well, but I can also see the argument that it’s not worth the risk.
RIP to Austin Gomber’s MLB pitching career.
Why?
It was a bit tongue-in-cheek. Coors is not a place I’d want to establish my pitching career as a prospect. It takes a special and rare breed to succeed there. Not sure Gomber has what it will take, even though he probably could succeed elsewhere. Hope I’m wrong on that.
The Rockies traded their franchise player + 50 million and barely improved their farm system. Now they get to pay a 35 year old Charlie Blackmon 60 million over the next 3 seasons including his 2022 $20 million player option and his 2023 player option that max’s out at $18 million. No knock on Blackmon.
Exactly! Well stated. They made their team so much worse and still are paying big money to some players. Just a flat out joke. Their GM should be fired!
Imagine if the rockies ever made a move for Justin Turner and colten wong now! And said JK to a full rebuild
1000 times no.
There’s probably a bunch of fans who actually think that would be a good move on the Rockies part.
The Rockies traded a 29 year old third baseman from Newport Beach for a 20 year old third baseman from Newport Beach. incredible
Considering the Rockies are paying $50 million of Arrenado’s contract, their return is light. They only got one top 15 prospect from the Cardinals system & that’s Montero. The purpose of eating part of the contract is to get better prospects in the return. The Rockies failed to do that
Rockies just traded their star player for a mediocre package AND gave up 50 million. Jeff Bridich is by far the worst GM in baseball.
Reds management is up there but yeah what a mess.
Has the Reds GM brought in more than 1 good player in less than 6 seasons? If so he is better than Bridich.
Bauer was good for 2 months so yes. Puig was good as well, although very costly in terms of prospects.
The Arenado contract was the horrible mistake. The sale to the Cards was the best they could do to fix it. Whoever thought that contract was a good idea should gracefully exit stage left…
Found the Richard Monfort’s burner. The Arenado contract is market value at worst. Should not have taken 50 million to trade it.
No it isn’t. Go read baseball trade value’s article about it. And why would that be Monfort’s burner, do you really think the GM was allowed to give that big of an extension all on his own? Absolutely not. Ownership was involved in that extension.
This is like the reverse of the Archer trade. Would love to hear a argument how this isn’t a win for the Cardinals. A+++++ If he has a mvp year and opts out the comp pick is better than any of the prospects given up. Rather have it over all 3 prospects. If he stays the rockies are paying a quarter of his salary.
F—— for Rookies. Should have never extended him. Weak return for eating that much salary. Hold him hostage and make him opt out of he is that miserable.
If he produces at his 2020 rate (instead of his 2019 rate) in 2021 and trends down from there, the Cardinals will be stuck with a roughly $23MM annual bill, dramatically overpaying for his services through 2027. I am NOT saying it’s going to happen that way, you just said you’d love to hear an argument for how this isn’t an A+++++ trade for the Cardinals, so I thought I’d oblige you.
Totally valid for sure. I am basing my grade on the Cardinals not being worried about 2020. If they were they wouldn’t have any interest in acquiring him. I didn’t watch him enough to have an opinion on his 2020 season.
Just they wanted him and didn’t give up anything close to a elite prospect or even a great one. And Col is paying 51 possibly his entire 2021 salary.
Could flip those grades if he is 2020 version.
Its a steal no doubt-
How the hell they couldnt have at least gotten Gorman in with eating 50mill is inconceivable – They get this package +Gorman its close enough
I do like the idea of Col eating the 35 mill bullet this year tho – Gray and Story should probably be traded before opening day now
Love your post! Agree 100%. That 50 million alone should have bought one of the red birds big 3 prospects. It bought them nothing! Catastrophic trade that will go down as one of the all-time worst!
They shouldn’t have extended him, you are absolutely correct, but they did. I’m not sure it’s fair to factor that into the grade for making a trade since it’s not part of that actual transaction.
Why do people use the Archer trade as a standard of a terrible trade? Is it because they just repeat what they read in posts without doing any research and analysis? The Archer trade, which was a terrible trade, was not the worst trade of 2018. The Pirates got 1.3 WAR out of Archer while giving up 8.0, a loss of 6.7. Pretty bad.. Six months before the Archer trade, Derek Jeter and the Marlins traded Yelich. The players the Marlins reaped have produced a negative 4.4 WAR for them while Yelich has produced 14.8 WAR for the Brewers. The Marlins in essence lost 19.2 WAR to the Pirates loss of 6.7. Granted the losses will continue to mount but the Brewers have Yelich signed till 2029 and both Glasnow and Meadows are FA years before that. The Yelich trade should be the standard for a bad trade, especially given Yelich’ s team friendly contract when he was traded.
Yelich was known to be good with potential to be great. He outperformed those standards of course. Archer was known to be average. I just play to the crowd. From the pirates perspective it wasn’t terrible. Really bad but. My problem was 1 wanting Archer bad enough. And 2 giving up on your recent 1st round pick. But maybe NH felt Baz was a busts after only a year. If so it wasn’t a terrible trade. Meadows looked nothing more than a average outfielder and they gave up on Glasnow as a starter. So if baz doesn’t amount to much it is a wash for the pirates.
Owners should really do the 6-year thing let them walk these long term deals are horrible – Tampa and Oakland got this thing figured out if they could get a decent stadium built they’d have it all
Rockies have a few different ways they can go to replace Arenado at 3B. They could look outside of the organization and sign Jake Lamb or Justin Turner to play 3B. They could sign Jonathan Schoop or Kolten Wong to play 2B and move Ryan McMahon to 3B. They could go with Josh Fuentes. They could still move McMahon to 3B and let Garrett Hampson or Brendon Rodgers play 2B. It will be to see what they do next
They have any ways to replace the anger and resentment of their fan base?
Are Rockies fans really that angry though? Do they really want to watch a player who didn’t really want to play there anyway?
The moment Arenado put pen to paper to sign his new contract all we heard was “they said they would build around me and they didn’t”. Nolan clearly feels lied to by Bridich and Monfort and maybe he was, we don’t know what was said or promised. However Nolan also should have known how his large raise in salary would affect the team’s overall spending. Plus if he knew anything about his team’s history he would know that the Rockies rarely spend big on free agents and when they do it’s almost always a disaster (Larry Walker being the Unicorn among big money contracts the Rockies have given free agents)
Wow I feel for Rockies fans, this version of the trade is even worse than what was first reported. This was nothing but a salary dump for the Rocks
Exactly. Which is why they traded him
Cardinals have a really good infield, but outfield is awful.
Dylan Carlson is better than we saw last season. Justin Williams should at least get a chance (can’t be any worse than Fowler or O’Neill). They could probably use at least one reinforcement from outside but after this trade and the inevitable re-signing of Yadier Molina they may not have much left to spend
Wow this is crazy… Cardinals keep Woodford, and Rondon?
Arenado! A St Louis Cardinal
“The Rockies will absorb $51MM…”
“The Rockies will pay all of Arenado’s $35MM salary in 2021 …”
“…most of the money the Rox owe will be after the opt-outs [post-2021 & 2022 seasons].”
I’m confused.
Typical annoying thing where people report a bunch of incoherent random details.
I was going to pass on that, because I didn’t give a rat’s a$$, and figured we would eventually get the real details.
But as long as you brought it up, how does the writer write that, and not realize inconsistent that appears.
I was hoping I wasnt the only one. It makes zero sense
Same here. I just ignored it like the details of players going back over the weekend. If true this trade becomes unreal amazing if he has a fantastic year and opts out.
The caption for that photo: These are MY bats. I’m taking them to St Louis with me. MINE.
The guys going to Colorado might have 2-3 year MLB careers at best.
On the upside, the Rockies can use this money to sign more multi-year contracts for relief pitchers.
They’re screwed – they use money on a cornerstone player, they fire sell him for practically nothing. Now they have all this money to spend! Who would they spend it on? They won’t spend a dime to make the team better, that money just goes as saved money from a non competitive team with no real vision or plan of competing anytime soon.
Interesting. Baseball Trade Values says the Rockies won this trade. Granted, they put zero stock in things like name value which Arenado definitely has some of that.
If Arenado opts out, the Rockies don’t have to pay the majority of that $, which makes it look better for them. But it also means Arenado produced at an MVP level in St. Louis, which makes it look better for them.
Feel better now Rockies fans? Stop complaining.
I don’t know how you can look at this entire extended saga and not think the Rox GM is an idiot.
The players the rockies got back are not good!! This trade was horrendous for them. It truly was all about money cuz I’d be shocked if anyone (other than gomber) contributes to the big club AT ALL. Very serious about that.
Montero will contribute, he’s hit too well in the minors not to hit at the big league level, especially at Coors. The rest though are all serious gambles, even the pitchers not named Gomber are already being tabbed as not good enough for the rotation in some places. That’s not great.
He hit a combined .194 in 2019 cardinals were like dueces to that!
Moneyballer, he also broke his hamate bone, which is an Achilles heel to hitters. He’s not even close to a .194 hitter, his swing will be PERFECT for Coors field. There’s no excuse for losing Arenado, but Rockies fans will be satisfied with Montero.
Baseball Trade Values is a toy.
I wonder how many Rockie fans are wondering if they should’ve handled Arenado the same way the RS handled Betts. Granted, it is always easier in hindsight, but at one point, they could’ve gotten a king’s ransom. Instead they just burned $50M.
It truly is a staggering figure when you consider they paid Arenado that much to just go away. The key to mitigating the overall fallout from that monstrous contract is not repeating that mistake.
I don’t think you need hindsight. There are a lot of people that said the Arenado contract was bad at the time it was signed and even more that said it was bad for a team like Col to sign him to a contract like that.
Nolan you are fun to watch but you won’t be missed in the NL West lol
Not a good look Col
I do like that they are biting the bullet with 35 mill in 21 at least – Minimal payouts after per year
Nolan himself probably profited from this trade more than anyone so props to him
I’d have to think that the logical follow-up moves will be to trade Story, Blackmon, Marquez, and Gray (for starters) at the deadline. I mean what better time to start the rebuild? They need too much to be competitive with SD and LA.
I doubt anyone trades for Blackmon. Those two player options at the end of his contract torpedo his value. Everyone else I agree on, but I can’t imagine a team gives up enough or the Rockies cover the option years. So it might be better all around for him to stay and be the last man standing for fans.
Question for Rockies’ fans: If a full rebuild follows, should Bridich be the one to do it? I’d give him the year to tear it down, but I’m thinking it’s the perfect time for a fresh voice in the front office.
Did the Rays give the Cardinals tips to fleece teams when it comes to trades? Cardinals win this trade before anyone touches the field. So pitiful
I look forward to watching Arenado in Cardinal red. Here’s to a good playoff performance by one of the game’s stars
I live in Colorado, and now my favorite Rockies’ player is on my favorite team!! Go Cardinals.
The Colorado Rockies are an embarrassing organization if they didn’t even get one of the Cardinals top prospects. LOL.
I’m glad that Arenado is going to the Cardinals. Great infielder. My main concern is he bats excellent at Coors field, but not so good away from Coors. Did I mention he is a great infielder?
I agree 100% with you mark
I told my friend yesterday that I bet they’d trade for him
So most of the Rockies money spent is after the op outs that begin after ‘21 but they pay 35 of the 50 mill in ‘21. What.? Who edits these things.
Yea that confused me. I’m also confused how he got another year AND another opt out. When I read he got another year I figured, oh he must have waived the opt out, but it was the opposite.
Great move for the Cardinals but they need something more if they want to be WS contenders.
I think the return is a flat out JOKE! The rockies GIFTED arenado to the cardinals. There aren’t many A one side F other side trades but this one is close. It’s really a shame too. I honestly feel bad for the rockies. This was flat out organizational theft at it’s highest level.
The Cardinals will pay $163 MM over the next seven years for Arenado’s age 30 to 36 seasons. The Rockies no longer have to. Colorado didn’t give STL a gift, they offloaded an obligation. Maybe Arenado will be the exception who’s worth it, but I think the Rockies will be the ones who look back on this deal with happy hearts two or three years from now.
If he was a free agent now, would he not get 163 or more?
He is making $214m not 163
and he has 2 opt outs.
He’s making $214MM, but STL is only paying $163MM because Colorado is picking up $51MM.
I believe St Louis won this trade.
Nolan suits up for every game. He will be 30 at the start of the season. It’s not like you’re signing Pujols through his 41 year old season (maybe 43-44-who knows) The contract ends at the right time and the money went from an overpay to what amounts to market value with the money sent to the Cards.
So they gave up prospects (granted not great ones) to get a guy at market rate, and you think they won the trade?
Why cuz now they have enough money to lock up all their average players?! Seriously what is the point to save money if you’re not going to reinvest it into better assets? That have no better assets!
So the Rockies commit all that $$$ to Arenado in a long term deal and then a year later change their minds. What happened?
That kind of money doesn’t get spent without ownership approval. Unbelievable.
If Arenado opts out of that sweet deal he’s a fool.
Players love playing for st louis, great city, loyal fanbase, just a great destination to play ball. He will be there for a long tome!
he is either a primadonna and his feelings were hurt; or, he banged someone’s daughter ( oh, it’s 2021, someone’s gender neutral child). now that fake news is done looking for Russians, work on this, eh?
I think there is a dossier involved.
Cards will top the Central Division, 2nd place is for grabs by anybody else but Pirates
Rockies never seem to make good for their team… I wish them the best but this easily makes the Cardinals favorites.
Outfielders are questionable. Not sure Fowler or Bader would start for any MLB team. Need a veteran outfielder on a 1 year deal.
Bader would start on just about every team in the majors on his defense alone. Add that to the signs of improvement he showed in 2020 and the Cardinals would be very dumb to not have him be their starting cf at this point.
“Bader would start on just about every team in the majors on his defense alone.”
uh, no…
You mean the Bader with the 111 ops+ and gold glove caliber defense? That Bader?
He’s at the top tier of defensive outfielders. No one is better than him, he’s got maybe two equals in the majors. Even the Angels would bump Trout to a corner for his defense
If the Rockies don’t want to be accused of giving Arenado away they should have asked for better prospects in return from the Cardinals. As an example; Locey who was the Cardinals 3rd round pick in 2019 was a reach and not slotted to go higher than the 6th round when the Cardinals drafted him that year. He was immediately pegged as a middle reliever. You don’t take middle relievers in the 3rd rd. Now he’s the Rockies middle reliever “maybe.”
Rockies you got fleeced..
Oh they asked., even demanded , stamped there feet and pouted. Cards had all the leverage.
Giving props to the writers that were told correct info on the prospect return… how about posting who had it wrong and was just trying to report before knowing?
Ken Rosenthal listed 5 names… he got 1 right and he is commended for the breaking news. Good job guys. High fives.
The names weren’t even decided on until this weekend after the trade had already been agreed to, that’s not a reason to not report on the trade. Nobody said “these are the names going over”, every source I read said something along the lines of “these are possible names that the teams are discussing”. I would bet every name on Rosenthals list was discussed in this trade by the teams, which is exactly what he said.
Rosenthal has had a bad month. At least. He’d call out another if they pulled the same track record.
Jeff Bridich. MLB Executive of the year, 2021.
Montero looks like a good player but even Gompers numbers aren’t so impressive.
Gomber was used as a reliever by the Cardinals. And——really never given a solid chance. I foresee him as a great starting pitcher in Colorado. Not just a good pitcher, but a great pitcher.
Feinsand must not have been a math major… if the Rockies are paying $35 of the $51 million this season, then how is most of the money they are contributing coming after the opt-out years?
After eminence frustration with John Mozeliak over his “Do nothing to help the team” over the past 5-6 years. I confess—— this is one, if not the best trade that has been made for the Cardinals since the Lou Brock trade!!!
Congratulations to John Mozeliak, Michael Girsch and the entire Cardinals Front Office for pulling off one of the best trades in recent baseball history.
Not quite Randy Johnson to Seattle for Mark Langston but bad enough.
I do not know what is a worse run organization: The Rockies or the Houston Texans? They both find ways to alienate and run out of town their best players. They basically make the Pirates and Orioles look like the Steelers and Ravens
Cardinals Organization has been one of the best run organizations in the last 2 decades. Surprising when fans rip the front office
I just want to thank mr Staton and mr Heyward for not wanting to become St Louis Cardinals. Phew!
It reminds me of the song by Garth Brooks Unanswered prayers.
My Indians always get ripped for being “cheap”.. I’ll take the Cleveland model over whatever the Rockies have been doing.
It’s better, but the Indians aren’t really contenders most years, either. They’re too good at player development and drafting to suck and get the top picks, too afraid of a rebuild to part with their best players at the time they’d get the highest return, and too cheap to go for it in FA when they have a core they can build around. They’re perennially a good-not-great team. If they don’t want to spend the money on FA’s, they should trade away guys, get one of the top farm systems in baseball, and try to sign the best of them to long-term deals early. Then FA spending would be minimal. Yes, it could blow up in their faces, but they’d at least have a realistic shot at hoisting the trophy at year’s end.
I just see them sitting on J-Ram and Bieber for the next 2 years, fooling themselves into thinking this is their year both times, then finishing third behind the White Sox and Twins and missing the playoffs. As a White Sox fan, I’m ok with that; as a fan of baseball, I think the Indians could do better than remain a slightly better than average team.
@hyrax I don’t get the impression the Indians think they are major WS contenders this year. But they probably think they can contend for a WC spot, if they have a few things go right. Most teams can rightfully feel that way before camp opens. But if you earn a ticket to the playoffs and get hot at the right time – anything can happen.
They appear to be trying to avoid the boom/bust model. Personally, I like that so you at least get watchable baseball most years. Some teams go into deep rebuilds and have multiple 100-loss seasons or go 10 years without a winning season. That is the misery I think they are trying to avoid.
They have had 8 consecutive winning seasons, 5 of which they went to the playoffs, and could probably be considered reasonable WS contenders from ’16 through ’18. Not bad at all. We will see what happens the next few years.. Definitely some tough work ahead with the Sox and Twins – plus the Royals look pretty decent, in my opinion.
Looking forward to all the games at Milw, Chi, Cin, (all away from Coors) where the ball seems to fly pretty good.
I’m sure if the Cardinals traded for Mike Trout there would be still some people on here telling how bad a deal it is for the Cardinals. Some just don’t get what it’s like to play in baseball heaven.
So are the Rockies no longer a 94-win team?
I would be impressed if they avoided 94 losses, with how good the Dodgers and Padres are
A statement move by the Cards. Clear NL Central favorites and with salary relief coming from Colorado this is a great move for them.
Time to rebuild in Colorado.
I have to imagine a trade for Marquez is next. He’s their best trade chip unless they want to part with Rodgers (unlikely). Lots of contenders are still looking for pitching and that contract is plenty valuable for a guy who’d be a solid #3 on a lot of teams.
Figure Rodgers will be kept. Question is what they will do with Story. I presume they will hold him.
I don’t see why they would. If they hold him, there’s no way they can possibly contend, so it would be only to offer him a QO and then get the draft pick compensation. Even on a rental, I’m thinking they can do better than that. He won’t bring back a huge return, but he is one of the game’s best SS on a low-risk deal. I think Story’s gone, too. It makes sense for another team to pick him up, too, because then the cost they pay is lessened by the DP they’d get back from the QO.
I agree with you. They should have dealt Story by now, in my opinion. Every passing day is a loss of whatever little leverage Colorado has.
Marquez, Gray…deal them. Freeland too. Sign a scrub SP or two.
Literally minutes later they make an announcement on Story. Hilarious.
While the Rockies are in the giving mood with their expensive veterans, maybe Charlie Blackmon would be a viable option for Atlanta in LF, if the price was right? Certainly not at full AAV, but if the Braves could get them to take on Inciarte and/or absorb some of his remaining cash, the Rox could pick up a decent prospect or three from ATL.
Blackmon had a down year, but he’s a gamer and the sort of LH power bat a number of teams could use. Especially with the DH coming in the next year or two
I love this move by the Cardinals and I’m jealous the Braves were not able to swing the same sort of deal for Nolan. 🙂 St. Louis was patient and appeared to be overly conservative this offseason, then they struck when the conditions were favorable. Goldschmidt and Arenado is an incredible duo and it’s going to be hard not to root for the Cards
The article says Colorado is paying Arenado’s entire salary for 2021. In a case like that, does the money count against the cap for Colorado or St. Louis? Without knowing for sure, I’d guess St. Louis, as they hold the contract. The money from Colorado is, I imagine, looked upon as a revenue source.
This was always going to be a sad mess for the Rockies, BUT not so with Trevor Story, German Marquez, and Jon Gray if they are looking to do a full rebuild. They might as well offer those guys and get top value to restock the farm system. They were not going to win that division with Arenado either, so it’s time to get peak value for some of their prime pieces.
I don’t think they get too much for Story. His contract pays him at a bit of a discount against FA value, but is only for a year. Plus, a lot of contenders are set at SS or not willing/able to spend too much more.
Marquez, especially, ought to bring a good return and I could see them getting value for Gray as well. Because the Padres and Dodgers are so well-stacked, they might be best served by going for high-upside prospects a few years away in these deals. Even if they get good value for all of these trade chips, any guys they get that are big-league ready won’t be enough to topple the Dodgers or Padres. If they develop prospects for a few years until the Padres roster becomes too expensive (Dodgers will probably be good for another decade) and they start having to trade players or let them go in FA. they may have an opening then. Team has been badly mismanaged, though.
What isn’t being mentioned is:
How is Covid impacting team budgets?
How will national and local tv contracts be impacted by Covid and loss of ratings?
Still losing younger fans to other sports and interests?
The golden age of money may be coming to an end in baseball.
Man I wish the Blue Jays would prey on the Rockies and try to pry Marquez away. That guy outside of Coors would be considered one of the best pitchers in the league. Since Monfort needs his money I’d take on the last year of Blackmon and Desmond and still give up top prospects for him.
Jays have a crowded OF as is. Forget Blackmon or Desmond unless the Rockies take on Roark and a 3rd team enters the fray to take an OF. Blackmon has 3 years left and his road numbers are not so hot.
Jays had their chance and should have went for Arenado over Springer/Semien/Matz. Time to sign Bauer and move on.
Nolan says about the opt outs. I plan on being there a long long time.
Here’s the deal. You want stars? You’re gonna pay. The back end of the contract will stink. But if you win just one ring, is it not worth it? Flags fly forever. Contracts don’t. Did the Rockies get fleeced? Nobody knows. On the surface it looks like they got a bag of used parts, but we don’t know that. When players like Smoltz, Wainwright, and Schilling were traded they were just names in a trade and they turned out pretty good. Time will tell. Yeah Nolan’s splits don’t look so great, but whose does? If he slashes .270/20/85 in that ballpark with that team and his glove it will be good enough. And that slash line is a baseline. I think most years he will be 10% better than that which would be .297/22/93. And I’m sure one or two seasons he will have a great year in the ‘hood of .310/24/95 again with GG defense.. Nothing is guaranteed in life, but barring injury he should be pretty damn good.
Nice.
Cubs by 5 games
He must be saying cubs get third place by at least 5 games. Most likely 4th place son.
If you think the Brewers and Reds are better than the Cubs, I’ll have to assume you’ve been living among the wolves in the wild since birth and you just recently encountered human civilization and discovered baseball this morning.
I recently watched the cubs dump a guy just like pederson and one of the best starters in the game along with a very good catcher and seem to take the steam out of the core of the team along with a shattered bullpen. So yes the reds and the brewers are just as good as the cubs. The so called cub dynasty is OVER.
I understand the reasoning behind trading him, but I’m having a hard time understanding why Colorado is paying the entire Salary for this season? They could have just retained him and saved the extra 15 mil? In essence, they are paying $51 mil for 5 prospect.
The only thing I can think of is that Colorado was worried Arenado would NOT opt out and they would be “stuck” in mediocrity with a $200 million contract on their hands. Somebody help me understand please.
Arenado called ownership dishonest losers in public and wanted out.. You cant go into spring training with that hanging over your head. There hand was forced.
Further Nolan could name his spot and he had already backchanelled with Cards players. Nolan and St. lou had wanted each other for a couple years.
Finally the Dodgers wanted him but were a non starter with Ownership. Who wants to see him come into town constantly for the next 6 years.?
SimbaHOF201922 mins ago
Arenado called ownership dishonest losers in public and wanted out..
===============================================================
Yup, but he waited until he got the big payday before complaining.
…and ownership waited until he got the big payday to go back on their word and surround him with a horrible ball club. It works both ways.
Colorado was on the hook for roughly $200MM. It was going to strap them moving forward. They wanted out of the deal. The correct way to think of this is STL paid Colorado $150MM and five prospects for Arenado (who didn’t want to be in Denver anyway). Colorado now has $150MM more to spend over the next six years. Even if all five prospects wash out, they may be better off with the cash than they would have been with Arenado.
It is insane that he has been here for 4 years and still has worse numbers than his time with the rockies. I still can’t believe he’s only had one good year in 2022
And yes I know this was 4 years late.