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Archives for September 2021

Royals’ Richard Lovelady Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Royals left-hander Richard Lovelady announced late last night on Instagram that he underwent Tommy John surgery this week. It’s not entirely out of the blue, as the 26-year-old southpaw was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in late August.

Tommy John surgery will quite likely wipe out the entirety of the 2022 season for Lovelady, as most pitchers require more than a year of rehab work. The Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson is one recent exception, but even he returned just four days shy of his operation’s one-year anniversary. It’s technically possible that Lovelady could be ready late next September, but precedent very strongly suggests Spring Training 2023 is a likelier target date.

Losing Lovelady for a full year’s time is a notable hit to Kansas City’s bullpen outlook next season. Long rated as one of the organization’s most promising relief prospects, Lovelady has dominated in the minors and, in 2021, had begun to carry that success over to the big leagues. While Lovelady struggled in 21 MLB frames from 2019-20, he pitched to a 3.48 ERA with strong strikeout (27.1), walk  (7.1) and ground-ball (56.6) percentages in 20 2/3 innings this year. Combine that success with a career 2.12 ERA in the minor leagues, including a 2.51 mark in 107 1/3 Triple-A frames, and it’s easy to see why the organization is increasingly bullish on the lefty’s future.

The recent injury surely doesn’t change the Royals’ view that Lovelady can be a big part of their pitching staff down the road, but the wait for him to cement himself as such will now be further prolonged. That said, the Royals still control Lovelady all the way through the 2026 season, so even if he’s not back on a big league mound until 2023, they could still enjoy four full seasons of the talented lefty before he’s eligible to test the free-agent market. He’ll accrue a year of service time and big league pay next year on the 60-day injured list due to the fact that the injury occurred while he was pitching on the big league roster.

Looking ahead to the 2022 campaign, the Royals will lean heavily on the late-inning duo of Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont to close things down, while lefty Jake Brentz and righty Domingo Tapia have quite likely punched their tickets for a spot on the big league staff as well. Bullpen help, however, already figured to be a priority for the Kansas City front office this winter. Losing one of the team’s more promising arms for the majority or entirety of next season only makes that an even likelier area of focus for newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore, general manager J.J. Piccolo and the rest of the Royals’ baseball ops department.

Front Office Notes: Padres, Rangers, Phillies, Royals

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As the offseason nears, we’ve started to see some movement of front office personnel across teams. A few clubs have made significant changes to their executive staffs over the past few days.

  • Rangers assistant general manager Mike Daly is departing the organization to join the Padres’ front office, reports Jeff Wilson. (Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported this morning that Daly and the Friars were in talks). Daly had spent fifteen years with Texas working in international scouting and player development, the last five of which had come as assistant GM. He’ll now reunite with former Rangers’ executive A.J. Preller in San Diego. Daly becomes the second Rangers’ AGM in as many months to leave the organization; Shiraz Rehman departed in August, as the front office structure in Arlington continues to evolve under president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and first-year GM Chris Young.
  • While the Padres added one executive, they saw another depart. San Diego coordinator of advance scouting Preston Mattingly was hired as Phillies director of player development. (Dennis Lin of the Athletic first reported the news). Mattingly, the son of Marlins’ manager Don Mattingly and a former first-round draft choice, had spent the past five seasons with the Friars. The Padres have already seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office on the heels of their second half collapse.
  • The Royals announced a pair of promotions yesterday. Lonnie Goldberg has been promoted from assistant GM/amateur scouting to vice president of player personnel, while Danny Ontiveros has been bumped up from assistant director of scouting to scouting director. Both Goldberg and Ontiveros have been in the Kansas City organization for well over a decade, with much of that time spent in the club’s scouting department. Earlier this month, the Royals bumped longtime baseball operations leader Dayton Moore up to president of baseball operations, promoted AGM J.J. Piccolo to general manager, and brought veteran executive Gene Watson back into the fold after he departed Kansas City to join the Angels last winter.

Rangers’ Kyle Cody Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Rangers right-hander Kyle Cody underwent a labral debridement procedure on his injured right shoulder, the club informed reporters (including Jeff Wilson). He’s expected to miss the first half of next season.

Cody missed almost all of this year due to the injury that necessitated today’s procedure. He landed on the injured list on April 25 with shoulder inflammation and was never able to make it back to the diamond. Today’s development unfortunately ensures he’ll miss a significant portion of next season as well, meaning it’ll be well over a full calendar year between Cody’s most recent and next big league outings.

The 6’7″ hurler broke into the majors last season. Over the past two years, he’s tossed 34 innings over fifteen appearances in a swing capacity. Cody owns a solid 3.71 ERA despite strikeout and walk rates that are both a bit worse than league average (21.8% and 10.2%, respectively). He flashed a promising three-pitch mix in his limited look, though, and seemed to have a good chance at cracking an uncertain Texas pitching staff next year. That’ll now be put on hold for at least a few months.

Texas will need to reinstate Cody from the 60-day injured list over the offseason. He’ll occupy a spot on the 40-man roster throughout the winter but seems likely to wind up back on the 60-day IL at the start of next season. Cody isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until the 2023-24 offseason.

Blue Jays Release Jake Lamb

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The Blue Jays announced that utilityman Jake Lamb has cleared release waivers. He’s now a free agent. Lamb had been designated for assignment last week, a move that created a vacancy on the 40-man roster filled today when the club selected reliever Jacob Barnes back to the major leagues.

Lamb split the 2021 campaign between the White Sox and Jays. He tallied 170 plate appearances between the two clubs, hitting .194/.306/.368 with seven home runs. The left-handed hitter continued his longstanding history of drawing plenty of walks and he offered a bit of power, but Lamb also fanned in a career-worst 30% of his trips to the dish. He’ll hit the open market and look for an opportunity elsewhere for next season, although it’s possible he’s limited to minor league offers with Spring Training invitations given his struggles over the past few years.

Barnes returns to the majors after being designated for assignment in July. The right-hander opened the year with the Mets but was traded to Toronto in June. He didn’t find much success with either club, tossing a combined 27 2/3 frames of 6.18 ERA ball. Barnes has been far better since accepting an outright to Triple-A Buffalo, though. He’s allowed just one run in 14 1/3 innings with the Bisons, posting a massive 60.5% ground-ball rate in the minors.

Elvis Andrus Undergoes Leg Surgery

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Athletics shortstop Elvis Andrus underwent successful surgery today to repair a fibula fracture in his left leg, the club announced. The veteran suffered the injury over the weekend. The team anticipates he’ll be ready for Spring Training next season.

Oakland acquired Andrus from the Rangers in February after watching Marcus Semien depart in free agency. Andrus went on to log the bulk of the playing time at short this season, but he didn’t produce much offensively. The 33-year-old hit .243/.294/.320 with only three home runs, production that checked in 28 percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. That’s the fourth consecutive well below-average hitting campaign for Andrus, who had a really solid run for much of his time in Texas but has tailed off as he entered his 30’s.

Andrus remains under contract for 2022 on a $14MM salary, $6.75MM of which will be paid down by the Rangers. The deal also contains a $15MM vesting player option for 2023. Were he to reach 550 plate appearances next year, he’d have the right to exercise that option; if he doesn’t hit that playing time tally, he’d hit free agency at the end of the season.

Given Andrus’ continued offensive struggles, it’s possible the A’s look to upgrade the position this winter. Advanced defensive metrics have been split on Andrus’ glovework — Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as below-average three years running, while he’s rated quite well by Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Most teams would still probably feel comfortable with Andrus’ ability to handle shortstop, but the A’s will assuredly try to be competitive again next season and could look to add a little more offense at the position. There’s likely significant roster turnover on the horizon, and the front office might try to bring in a controllable shortstop option via trade to push Andrus into more of a utility role.

Yankees Option Andrew Heaney

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The Yankees announced they’ve reinstated Jonathan Loáisiga from the 10-day injured list. To open space on the active roster, New York optioned Andrew Heaney to their rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate.

This surely isn’t the result New York envisioned when they acquired Heaney just before this summer’s trade deadline. Heaney owned just a 5.27 ERA at the time, but the Yankees bet that his high-end strikeout and walk rates (28.2% and 7.7%, respectively) would translate into stronger future results.

That hasn’t yet proven to be the case. Heaney was installed into the Yankees’ rotation over the first month after the trade, but he was tagged for 18 runs in 26 innings, largely thanks to a staggering nine home runs allowed. New York moved him into the bullpen after that rough start, but he’s been even less effective in that new role. Over seven relief outings, the southpaw has served up eleven runs in 9 2/3 frames, including four more long balls. Heaney has actually continued to post decent strikeout and walk numbers in pinstripes, but he’s been so homer-prone that hasn’t mattered.

It’s an especially inopportune time for Heaney to post arguably the worst season of his career. He’ll hit free agency for the first time this winter, coming off a campaign in which he’s tossed 129 2/3 innings of 5.83 ERA ball between Anaheim and the Bronx. He’ll present a rather difficult evaluation for teams. Because of his strong strikeout and walk rates, Heaney’s SIERA remains quite good (3.83). Of the 122 pitchers with 100+ innings, only four have a worse home run rate than Heaney’s 2.01 HR/9, though, and his second half struggles became significant enough the Yankees have bumped him from the active roster for a few of their most important games of the year.

Heaney has more than five years of major league service time, meaning he could not be optioned without consenting to a minor league assignment. Presumably, the Yankees offered him the choice of agreeing to the option or being designated for assignment (which almost certainly would’ve resulted in him being released). Rather than refuse the assignment and be cut from the organization altogether, he’ll head to the complex in hopes of straightening things out. He remains on the 40-man roster and could still be a depth option should the Yankees qualify for the postseason.

Loáisiga will try to help the Yankees get to the playoffs, as he returns after a three-week absence due to a shoulder strain. He has been among the club’s most effective relievers this season, tossing 68 frames of 2.25 ERA ball. The Yankees have reeled off seven consecutive wins to put themselves in great position to land a spot in the AL Wild Card game, but they’ll need to at least take a game or two in their final couple series with the Blue Jays and Rays to feel completely comfortable about their chances of nailing that berth down.

Nolan Arenado Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause This Offseason

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Nolan Arenado had previously suggested on a few occasions that he was unlikely to opt out of his current contract with the Cardinals. This afternoon, he officially put any notion about exercising the opt-out to bed.

“I’m not opting out,” Arenado told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “We can put that out there. I will not be opting out. I will be coming back. That was always the plan. I’m absolutely coming back. I feel like this year has been special in a lot of senses.”

Arenado will return to St. Louis on a $35MM salary ($6MM of which will be deferred) next season. He’ll have another opportunity to opt out and test the open market over the 2022-23 offseason. His initial extension with the Rockies contained only the post-2021 opt-out provision which Arenado is electing to forgo. However, the Cardinals added the second opt-out as part of a restructuring to convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause and facilitate St. Louis’ deal with Colorado last winter.

As part of that trade-off, the Cards also added an additional year and $15MM in guaranteed money to Arenado’s contract. Were he to forgo next year’s opt-out as well, he’d be guaranteed another $144MM between 2023-27. All told, his deal contains another six years and $179MM beyond this season.

The Cardinals’ acquisition of Arenado was one of the most important moves of last offseason. St. Louis surrendered a five-player package — Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Tony Locey, Mateo Gil and Jake Sommers — to bring in the eight-time Gold Glover. He’s continued to perform well, albeit not quite at his peak level, over his first season in Cardinal red. Through 642 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .256/.313/.499 with 34 home runs. That’s solidly above-average offensive production, and Arenado has again rated as one of the game’s preeminent defenders at the hot corner.

Arenado’s work is a key reason the Cards are playoff-bound for the third straight season. St. Louis entered the month a bit behind the pack in the postseason picture, but they’re currently amidst an incredible 17-game win streak that has officially clinched them a berth in next week’s NL Wild Card game.

As part of last offseason’s trade, Colorado agreed to cover $51MM of Arenado’s contract (assuming he doesn’t trigger either opt-out) — including his entire $35MM salary for 2021. $15MM of that was paid this year, with the rest of those payments deferred over the next few seasons. Arenado has suggested in the past he’s not anxious to exercise next season’s opt-out, either, but he’ll have another year to gauge the organization’s progress and determine whether he wants to explore his options. Free agents next offseason will have the added bonus of a little more certainty about the market structure, since this winter’s free agency is clouded by the impending expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on December 1.

Royals Extend Michael A. Taylor

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The Royals announced an agreement to keep center fielder Michael A. Taylor from hitting the open market this winter. Taylor receives a two-year, $9MM guarantee, paid out via successive $4.5MM salaries in 2022 and 2023. He’d receive an additional $50K for hitting the 325, 375, 425, 475 and 525 plate appearance mark in each season, with up to $500K in total incentives available. Taylor is represented by ALIGND Sports Agency.

It’s a bit surprising at first glance to see Kansas City jump the market to extend Taylor, who is amidst a below-average year at the plate in his first season in Royal blue. Across 508 plate appearances, the 30-year-old owns a .244/.298/.359 line with twelve home runs. Even after accounting for Kansas City’s extremely pitcher-friendly home ballpark, Taylor’s offensive numbers check in around 21 percentage points below league average according to wRC+.

That’s right in line with his typical production. The right-handed hitter spent the first seven seasons of his big league career with the Nationals, generally struggling to produce much offensively. Taylor has flashed intriguing power potential at times, but he’s been held back by a propensity to swing and miss. He’s not a complete free swinger — Taylor’s rate of chasing pitches outside the strike zone hovers right around league average — but he comes up empty quite a bit even when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone.

Taylor has posted above-average offensive numbers just once in parts of eight big league seasons. Over 432 plate appearances with the Nats in 2017, he hit .271/.320/.486 and popped 19 homers. That season was propped up by an unsustainably high .363 batting average on balls in play, though, and Taylor hasn’t found that kind of success in the years since. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, he owns a .234/.291/.364 line with an alarming 28.9% strikeout rate.

That the Royals are anxious to keep Taylor off the open market in spite of his offensive struggles is a testament to his prowess with the glove. Taylor rated very highly defensively throughout his time in Washington, and he’s continued to excel on that side of the ball with Kansas City.

Aside from a pair of semi-rest days at designated hitter, Taylor has lined up exclusively in center field this season. Over 1,141 innings at the position, he’s rated as a staggering 21 runs above average, by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. That’s six runs clear of second-place finisher Harrison Bader. Statcast’s range-based Outs Above Average metric paints a similar picture. By that measure, Taylor is tied with Bader and Manuel Margot with an outfield-best +14 plays. Those advanced metrics align with Taylor’s general reputation for defensive excellence.

The Royals have long valued defense more than most clubs, partially because of the extreme spaciousness of Kauffman Stadium. Excellent glovework was a backbone of their back-to-back pennant winners (and one-time champions) last decade, and the front office continues to place a real emphasis on turning batted balls into outs. With Taylor among the sport’s best handful of players at tracking down fly balls, they’ve struck early to keep him in the fold for the next couple seasons.

While Kansas City surely values Taylor quite a bit, it’s also worth keeping in mind that there wouldn’t have been too many viable alternatives available even if they wished to turn elsewhere. Starling Marte handily tops the upcoming free agent center field class, but he always seemed likely to land a multi-year deal that would’ve been above the Royals’ typical range of spending. Beyond Marte, the class features a group of players who have almost unanimously scuffled offensively this season — Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Danny Santana among them. There’d have been a strong case for Taylor as the second-best overall center fielder available in free agency.

It’s similarly unclear which center fielders would be attainable in trade. There’ll surely be plenty of calls on players like Cedric Mullins, Bryan Reynolds and Ketel Marte, but their teams’ willingness to make those respective players available ranges from questionable to highly unlikely.

Rather than test the vagaries of the free agency and trade markets, the Royals will lock Taylor into center field for the next couple seasons. Last winter, Kansas City added veterans Mike Minor and Carlos Santana on multi-year free agent deals in an effort to contend. That didn’t pan out, but president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and his front office will surely make another run at being competitive this winter. Santana will be back at first base, while franchise cornerstone Salvador Pérez returns on the heels of one of the better offensive seasons by a catcher in recent memory. Nicky Lopez has played well enough to earn an everyday job somewhere, even if top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. comes up early in the season and stakes a claim to Lopez’s current shortstop position. And the versatile Whit Merrifield will be back to hold down a role at some spot on the diamond while hitting at the top of the lineup.

Taylor’s deal brings the Royals’ guaranteed commitments just north of $50MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.  That’s before accounting for a fairly modest arbitration class, which will feature raises for players like Brad Keller, Adalberto Mondesi, Scott Barlow and Lopez. Even if that group winds up banking something in the collective $10-15MM range, that still leaves a bit of breathing room for further additions before hitting this season’s $86MM+ mark. It’s certainly possible ownership would be willing to spend beyond this season’s level, since the franchise has run payrolls north of $120MM in the past.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Royals’ agreement with Taylor on a two-year, $9MM deal. Alec Lewis of the Athletic reported the deal contained an additional $500K in available incentives. Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported the salaries were to be paid out equally in each season, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the specific incentive structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tommy Pham On Injuries, Free Agency

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Tommy Pham’s time with the Padres hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped at the time of his acquisition from the Rays. The 33-year-old outfielder missed a chunk of “Summer Camp” last July after testing positive for Covid-19, and he suffered a broken hamate bone mid-August, limiting him to just 31 games. Even more alarming was a frightening offseason scene in which Pham was stabbed outside a San Diego club — a life-threatening attack that required 200 stitches and left the outfielder with a footlong scar on his back.

Pham, remarkably, managed to participate in Spring Training and was able to take the field come Opening Day for the Padres. It marked an incredible recovery, but it’s clear that that wave of health issues has taken its toll on Pham. Through 150 games and 553 plate appearances, Pham has posted just a .229/.342/.383 batting line. He’s drawing walks at a career-high 14.1 percent clip, but he’s also striking out at high highest rate since 2018 (22.8 percent) and hasn’t matched the power he showed from 2016-19. Given that Pham is set to hit the open market at season’s end, the combined .226/.336/.370 slash he’s delivered in two years with the Padres is all the more disappointing.

In a postgame interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn (YouTube link), Pham was candid in discussing his health, his own lackluster performance and the second-half collapse of his team. Asked about the Padres’ descent from what looked like a surefire playoff club to a team fighting to finish .500, Pham placed no shortage of blame on himself.

“I didn’t play well enough,” Pham said when asked what went wrong for the Padres. “…I’ve got to be a more consistent hitter. I’ve got to work on regaining my strength and speed this offseason. I have a lot to work on.”

Obviously, the Padres’ nosedive in the standings is related to far more than just a disappointing season for Pham, who couldn’t have anything resembling a normal offseason while recovering from surgery in the wake of that stabbing. However, Pham’s acknowledgement regarding his speed and strength (or lack thereof) is indeed borne out when looking at his Statcast profile.

Pham’s average exit velocity dropped by a hefty 1.9 mph in spite of the fact that his percentage of “barreled” balls improved from 7.3 percent to 10.1 percent. As Pham explains to Heilbrunn: “…even the balls I’ve been barreling, the exit velocity just ain’t there.”

From a speed perspective, Pham is still a better runner than the average big leaguer, but his sprint speed of 27.8 feet per second is down from last year’s 28.2 ft/sec and down more handily from the 28.7 ft/sec he posted in each season from 2016-19. It should be noted that Pham’s 90.9 mph exit velocity and 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed still rank in the 78th and 70th percentiles among big league players.

It’s all led to a stark downturn in performance for Pham, who from 2017-19 was among the game’s most underrated players. A 2017 breakout saw him post a huge .306/.411/.520 batting line with 23 homers and 25 steals in just 530 plate appearances/128 games. Pham largely sustained his production in his two subsequent healthy seasons, wrapping that three-year stretch up with a composite .284/.381/.475 line. He was worth 13.5 and 13.8 wins above replacement, respectively, in the estimation of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs during that time.

Had Pham reached the market on the heels of that three-year run, he’d have been extremely well compensated. But as a late-bloomer who didn’t get an earnest look with the Cardinals until 2017, at age 29, Pham will instead reach free agency headed into his age-34 campaign and on the heels of a pair of highly unfortunate seasons. He’s realistic about the toll these past two years have likely taken on his market.

“I didn’t have the season I was expecting,” says Pham. “I’m fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”

[Related: 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List]

That’s a tough proposition for a player entering his mid-30s, however. Pham will be 34 next March, so even if he indeed reestablishes himself as a quality all-around corner outfielder, he’ll do so in advance of his age-35 campaign.

Given the manner in which teams are increasingly reluctant to sign mid-30s and late-30s players to lucrative multi-year deals, it’s fair to question just what type of ceiling would be placed on Pham’s earning power even if he does rebound in full. Michael Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM contract covering his age-34 and age-35 seasons after playing for three years at a roughly three- to four-win pace, however, so there’s some recent precedent for a corner outfielder in this age bracket commanding a rather lucrative multi-year pact.

Of course, any such talk is putting the cart before the horse. Pham’s focus in the offseason will be both getting back into peak physical condition and finding the best opportunity for the 2022 season. It’s not out of the question that teams would have some interest on a multi-year contract, given Pham’s prior excellence. Pham, however, sounded plenty confident in his ability to rebound from these past couple seasons and position himself for a stronger annual value in future trips to the market. Unsurprisingly, he made clear that he’d welcome the opportunity to do so with the Padres, though he gave no indication any such negotiations have taken place just yet.

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