Nolan Arenado had previously suggested on a few occasions that he was unlikely to opt out of his current contract with the Cardinals. This afternoon, he officially put any notion about exercising the opt-out to bed.
“I’m not opting out,” Arenado told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “We can put that out there. I will not be opting out. I will be coming back. That was always the plan. I’m absolutely coming back. I feel like this year has been special in a lot of senses.”
Arenado will return to St. Louis on a $35MM salary ($6MM of which will be deferred) next season. He’ll have another opportunity to opt out and test the open market over the 2022-23 offseason. His initial extension with the Rockies contained only the post-2021 opt-out provision which Arenado is electing to forgo. However, the Cardinals added the second opt-out as part of a restructuring to convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause and facilitate St. Louis’ deal with Colorado last winter.
As part of that trade-off, the Cards also added an additional year and $15MM in guaranteed money to Arenado’s contract. Were he to forgo next year’s opt-out as well, he’d be guaranteed another $144MM between 2023-27. All told, his deal contains another six years and $179MM beyond this season.
The Cardinals’ acquisition of Arenado was one of the most important moves of last offseason. St. Louis surrendered a five-player package — Austin Gomber, Elehuris Montero, Tony Locey, Mateo Gil and Jake Sommers — to bring in the eight-time Gold Glover. He’s continued to perform well, albeit not quite at his peak level, over his first season in Cardinal red. Through 642 plate appearances, Arenado is hitting .256/.313/.499 with 34 home runs. That’s solidly above-average offensive production, and Arenado has again rated as one of the game’s preeminent defenders at the hot corner.
Arenado’s work is a key reason the Cards are playoff-bound for the third straight season. St. Louis entered the month a bit behind the pack in the postseason picture, but they’re currently amidst an incredible 17-game win streak that has officially clinched them a berth in next week’s NL Wild Card game.
As part of last offseason’s trade, Colorado agreed to cover $51MM of Arenado’s contract (assuming he doesn’t trigger either opt-out) — including his entire $35MM salary for 2021. $15MM of that was paid this year, with the rest of those payments deferred over the next few seasons. Arenado has suggested in the past he’s not anxious to exercise next season’s opt-out, either, but he’ll have another year to gauge the organization’s progress and determine whether he wants to explore his options. Free agents next offseason will have the added bonus of a little more certainty about the market structure, since this winter’s free agency is clouded by the impending expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on December 1.
Yea no kidding
Good news. I’m glad that he stays with the Cards.
Yeah and that .255 BA
Lol batting average who cares. None of the current gms look at batting average.
Right- cuz we all know batting average is the ONLY way to evaluate a player…
Anyone will be okay with a .250-.260 hitter if he hits ~35 home runs and doubles.
However, GMs care a lot about OPS and his is .812. That’s not bad for a $10-12M player but not for someone making $35M no matter how good his defense might be. He is a career .956 OPS at home with almost all being played in Colorado and .805 on the road. Great player but not worth anywhere near $35M a year.
I agree, but the cards aren’t paying him 35m. They should get surplus value on his contract for a couple more years before it starts to look bad.
….255 BA plus his 34 HR, 105 RBI and a likely 9th straight Gold Glove.
His ops is lower but his strikeout rate, walk rate and power output is right within his career norms,as is his max EV and barrel rate the main difference is his sub 250 babip which could come back up.
I don’t think he will be quite a 300 babip guy as he is a high launch angle guy which tends to cost some babip but you probably should expect at least a 270 or so in the babip.
If he hits 35 homers with 15% Ks and a 270 babip next year that Probably is like a high mid to high 800s ops.
Batting ace? How bout over 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s. He’s been sensational offensively and always defensively. Arguably the best third baseman in the game.
OBP and slugging are more important jagaloon
Who cares about batting average anymore?
League average is what? .230 something?
It’s close… Baseball Trade Values has him valued at $5.4m surplus value. And if he were to opt out the Cardinals would basically be guaranteed to tag him with the qualifying offer.
Yea, but usually stats improve as the batter gets used to their division’s pitchers. I wouldn’t be surprised if his ‘out of colorado’ OPS was more around .850
I’ve never heard of that effect and doubt it exists. The most important dynamic with Arenado is his aging curve. He’s 31 next year.
You don’t think seeing a pitcher more would help you adjust to them better?
Definitely a thing. People talk about it a lot.
@EndinStealth That’s sarcasm right? I’ve literally never heard that talked about and I’ve been watching baseball since 1997.
And…? Guys fall off a cliff at that age?
Maybe, just maybe baseball trade values isn’t the end all be all. Arenado is a fantastic player in his prime and the Rockies were foolish to pay the Cardinals to take him.
I never said it was the end all be all
The Rockies won the trade hands down. Contract is gonna look horrendous, well it looks very bad now actually. .313 on base. Ouch.
Hands down? Preposterous.
Gomber was the get and he was injured most of the season.
Nolan 34 HRs 100+ RBI and going to the playoffs.
Not to mention that you forgot Colorado is paying for Nolan to play for the cardinals.
Get your eyes checked
Stuff like that doesn’t deserve a response. Most of these long contracts pay for themselves in the early years. That’s why billionaires okay them.
Ummm no they don’t lol. But you got be smart enough not to shout collusion as soon as a feee agent isn’t signed after Xmas.
With an OPS barely above .800 in his first season away from Coors, this does not shock me. Still a fantastic player, but probably not worth that contract.
A 123 ops+ is no laughing matter
34HRs and 100+ RBIs and gold glove defense isn’t worth that contract?!?
Arenado is a major asset. If he chose to opt out, there would be a long line of suitors.
But not at $200m.
Why not? He is a difference-maker. I wish the Dodgers had him instead of Justin Turner.
I love JT but yeah…
tstats, infield defense worries me heading into the post-season. I’ll also hate not having Bellinger’s glove in CF if he doesn’t start, even with the weak bat.
There would be a long line but none of which would pay $35M a year. Would you pay him that much?
Very good year but not the great year I was hoping for
It’s incredible that a baseball fan in 2021 can point to RBI.
It’s like believing in witchcraft.
It’s amazing that someone comments on a website like this and apparently has no clue about different home parks and how they affect hitting. Arenado’s year offensively is pretty much exactly at his recent average, park adjusted.
Eh, even still. Give me Josh Donaldson and his remaining contract over Arenado’s remaining contract any day.
Give me whoever is left in free agency willing to take a one year contract until my farm system produces something better and watch me win. Probably get someone better than a .313 obp too.
Donaldson is not the same player he used to be. Crazy argument.
How many times are you going to post .313 obp? Have you ever watched the guy play?
Overrated
@iverbure ok maybe nolan’s batting stats took a hit but not a bad hit, yes i would like to see his ba a bit higher but he is the first card in 10 years to hit 100+ rbis. more importantly i’ll take a few points of his avg for a true power bat in the middle of the lineup that plays gg d. i’ve personally watched nolan win a game for my birds just with his glove and the fact the dude plays every pitch at 120%. i’ll finish with this in an age where advanced stats are what everyone looks at i feel that we forget that this isn’t mlb the show, these guys playing are human with there own personalities. getting a player is more than what dose the metrics say, there are other factors that you can’t put into a spreed sheet, i.e. how dose he respond to a bad game or the fans treat him, or how dose he gel with the team, is he willing to buy into an organizational philosophy. (btw i’m not putting down advanced metrics i just look at them as another tool in the box to judge players but not the end all be all)
Take a look at the home run leaders for the league and count how many of them hit over 30 homers and struck out less than 100 times. Not many. Including Nolan there were 3 players out of 43 and nobody had more HR’s with under 100 K’s. That is also why RBI’s count. He gets runners in.
I am shocked I tell you. Shocked that he is not opting out of his $35,000,000 a year salary. Now this will be on the Cardinals payroll since this year was on Colorado.
Cards are basically paying him $25M this year
$6M is deferred, and he’s receiving $2M from a 2020 deferral and Colorado is paying $5.7M
I thought the Cards aren’t paying him anything this year as the the Rockies paid us 51mil?
The 6million deferred is spread out over years.
You can argue that he’s overpaid, but how would the Cards get a better 3B? Or even a better position player? I’m happy he’s sticking around.
If he is overpaid then that, by definition, means the Cardinals could get a better 3B for the amount of money they’d save if Nolan did opt out.
Name a better, available 3B.
Not my job. baseballpun is the one who called him overpaid. All I did was point out that he contradicted himself. If a player is overpaid then by definition, his team could get more production at his position for the same amount of money if he opted out or got traded.
Or it means he’s the best available 3B and he’s just paid a little too much. It doesn’t mean they can find a better one, just that he may not be worth $35M, and there’s no one else available who is.
A team could probably platoon josh Harrison and some other guy who makes a couple million and put up similar or better numbers sans the hrs for about 1/20th of the price.
And get 1/20th of the defense
You keep digging that hole. Put the shovel down.
I’m saying you could look at his WAR or OPS or whatever metric you want and say “well this output is worth $25m and he’s making $35m.” But at the end of the day I don’t think the team would be better if they repurposed that money elsewhere. Top talent costs a lot once you get out of arb years.
The Cardinals value defense and work ethic as much as offense. Nobody better for the Cardinals at 3rd. The Cards top prospect was a 3rd baseman who moved to second when the Cards signed Nolan. The other Nolan hits bombs too. Nolan Gorman is coming to a field near you in 2022.
There is a reason the Cards have excelled this year. Most of the attention has been on the Goldschmidt, O’Neill and Arenado trio, and justifiable so But Tommy Edman should get some kudos. First in ABs, first in doubles,he.is second in stolen bases and he has played multiple positions. What OPS+ should.incorporate is speed. Turn those SBs into doubles, penalize if you don’t succeed, but it it is offensive production that OBS+ is supposed to represent!
Bader, too. Coming into the season, the outfield was an area of concern for the Cardinals. Left to right, that unit has come together nicely. Gotta think O’Neill, Bader and Carlson all have their best years in front of them. Heading into the winter, their lineup is a lot more stable than people realize. A tweak here and there and they’ll be fine.
By the way, the Cardinals will have more homegrown talent on their roster than any playoff team. It will likely be 18 or 19, which is remarkable. The Dodgers, I believe, will be second with 13 or 14. For some reason, the Cardinals farm system doesn’t seem to get the attention other teams get.
@cey hey i think a lot of that has do so with how we bring guys up and use our farm to build our team. also i don’t think the pipeline experts or whatever entity ranks prospects, doesn’t put value on how we raise our youngsters. the “cardinal way” isn’t anything special heck the rays are doing the same thing, what the cards do best is find players that fit there mold which is blue collar. unfortunately to most blue collar players are boring to watch because there not flashy but stl is a blue collar city and we love the team/blue collar play.
brodie-bruce, Great stuff on the city’s connection to the team. Not a lot of highlight-reel material from Cardinals players, just guys who get the job done. A good word for the system’s approach might be methodical.
An interesting aspect to me is how the homegrown players on the current roster debuted in a wide range of years, going as far back as Molina and Carpenter. I wasn’t counting Wainwright since he’d already established himself as a good prospect before they got him from the Braves, though he certainly represents that Cardinals culture.
Judging by some of the comments here, Arenado is now one of those “boring” players. A major contributor to a winning effort but without flashy numbers (though the glove is spectacular). He reminds me of Brooks Robinson. in that way. With the exception of his MVP year in 1964, Robinson never had a slugging percentage above .500. And he never had one higher than .444 after that season. It was sometimes suggested that he didn’t hit enough and should be replaced. But since there wasn’t a better option, the Orioles stuck with Robinson, who we now identify as a cornerstone for Orioles teams we associate with winning. A successful player whose value lies beyond his personal statistics. It’s a reason why I think league MVP shouldn’t just be the player with the best stats. My NL choice this year is Brandon Crawford. Take him off the Giants and the entire NL season is different.
@cey hey well i call like i see it and stl from the get go has been a blue collar city, but i will say the lad are adopting the same philosophy. other than trevor (and i understand why lad made the move just of a ws and there pushing for another) lad usually make methodical moves just like my birds. on your mvp vote imo i think it’s harper even if the phils don’t win the east he is the reason that the phils were even close to winning the east (just like i think wanio is the cards mvp) and not to take anything away from crawford but imo mvp winners should be on contending teams (unless you get that rare guy that is blowing the doors down and the rest of the field is avg) long story short how i view the mvp is like this. take player x of his team (player x is a mvp player btw) where dose the team finish without player x. perfect example this season cards and pads had a 3 game set and both teams at the time were fighting for there postseason. tatis jr who is in the race for mvp went 1 for 9 when his team needed him the most. imo crawford, harper, riley, freeman and wanio deserve the mvp over tatis or soto (they had great seasons and are mvp type of guys) but take guys not named tatis or soto of there respective team and where do they finish.i may be in the minority but i’m a firm believer that the mvp should be the guy if he wasn’t on our team we’re a losing team.
Correct. He’s a boring player in that it’s boring to watch him stroll back to the dugout 7 times of 10 after failing to get on base.
If 2021’s 4 WAR is his peak for this contract, the Cardinals are going to be unhappy with Arenado.
spud, OPS+ isn’t supposed to represent overall offensive production. It’s OPS, adjusted for ballpark.
A bit surprising. I think he could do a bit better on the open market than his current contract. But at the same time, how much better? Best to play it safe and keep the current contract if you’re happy in St. Louis.
You think a 31 year old is going to do better than 35 million a year? Yeah… don’t think so pal.
That’s 31, not 41 like you’re acting like he is.
Mr. Watch Me Win wants to replace Arenado with Josh Harrison and some other guy.
Every player is easily replaceable. Every single in mlb right now is replaceable.
Where are all the geniuses that said there was no way he would want to stay in this flyover cow town?
Typical non-knowing comments from the basements of their moms houses. Clueless and classless. Keep up the idiocy, trolls.
“Keep up the idiocy, trolls.”
Now that’s a classy comment.
I’m real worried about what you think is classy and what isn’t. Go away.
At least you got over it.
This is CB, reporting live from el sótano de mamá.
Great story. Tell us another one.
Arenado wants to win boys and girls… he picked a GREAT baseball city to do that in. Theses guys can live anywhere but the have to pick a team to play for…. he is the prefect cardinal!! And he brings fire to the game! Good for you sir, this is the right choice!
Shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
Where are the folks who were wringing their hands about Gomber or the other lottery tickets in the bunch? I know one guy was really adamant about how Gomber’s contract was better than Nolan’s, even with Colorado paying it this year. Mo has hit on this deal so far.
Crickets.
The Rockies won the trade even if they acquired no talent in it. Getting rid of that salary was a auto win and it’s not even close. The fact they received a mlb caliber sp puts it in absolutely fleeced territory.
Lol this is just ridiculous. “Fleeced” hahaha. The trade worked out well for both teams moving in complete opposite directions.
Just sit down. You’re making a fool of yourself, showing your ignorance. You’re acting like Arenado has performed like Lindor.
.331/.412/.576 with RISP.
So a WAR of 4.4 is now worth 35 million a year?
That must make Ohtani worth in the area of 50 million+ when he hits free agency.
$50M a year for Ohtani would not surprise me at all.
Must mean if Max Muncy hit the open market with a 4.9 WAR (139 OPS+) he would be worth at least 25-30 million.
WAR is a stupid stat…stop trying to justify this stat with a players worth…it makes no sense
It can be useful. A problem is that some people think it’s the most important stat. It’s not. There are many components that can be used in determining a player’s value, some of which aren’t statistical at all. So far, there’s no number that can properly gauge a catcher’s worth to a team.
Nice to see some sanity on this board.
Call me old fashion, but personally I gauge a position player’s value to a team based off of their BA ,HR’s, RBI’s, BB’s, Fielding Percentage, how they perform in clutch situations and their character. While sabermetrics can be useful, but to me they are only trivial stats that really don’t mean a whole lot. Just my opinion.
That’s not old fashioned, it’s simply ignorant. Woefully ignorant. How can someone watch baseball year in and year out and be so uninterested in the game as to believe “clutch” truly exists?
To all the “he’s overpaid” people: Should they pass on him as their 3B? If this is what you want me to infer from your comments than you’re an idiot.
“Then” even.
Nerd.
Lol / he was never getting that money on the open market. Cards aren’t overpaying him though (thanks Rockies). Still funny to hear “analysts” say people were worried about him opting out. Who are these people?
Yeah, I’m enjoying reading everyone going “whew.” There is NO WAY Nolan bails on that deal unless he won the triple crown and MVP. No way he gets $35 million a year on the open market. He knows that.
That was to keep the trade return down. The two wailing points: 1)”opt out, opt out, opt out!” & 2) Coors Field!!! He’ll suck away from it.
There are so many unemployed GMs on here! Maybe you unemployed GMs could put your heads together and solve the National Debt!! Not
Man not worth $35M 2022 salary, elects to keep same. Gee, what a massive surprise no one saw coming.
I don’t think Arenado was ever going to opt-out whether or not he be playoff bound in St.Louis or fourth place in Denver. At some point the money gets to be too much to walk away from.
If it’s truly about winning the Cardinals give him that opportunity so i don’t really see why he would want to leave anyway
Elite pro athlete bails on small market team struggling to stay competitive, moves to large market team with more resources and large fan base, finds new super-team “special” and worth staying for.
I used to admire this dude, before he sold out his supportive fans who deserve a winner. So tired of watching these lopsided baseball economics play out, and watching small market teams sit out the playoffs season after season.
I hear what you’re saying, but you’re fabricating facts to fit your agenda. The Cardinals are not a large market team. Probably smaller than Denver even if you factor in the top 5 attendance and historically, large regional fanbase. Economics aren’t to blame for this situation.
St Louis receives competitive draft picks most, if not all, years since they began. Don is correct. They, like the Rockies, are considered small market.
Cracking the top 10 in team payroll in 5 seasons through the past decade means you’re not a small market team. The Rockies, meanwhile, were in the bottom 10 for 4 of those seasons.
Cherry-picking a few small market teams that can make the playoffs once or twice a decade doesn’t compensate for how regularly we see the larger markets GOING DEEP in the playoffs. 25 out of the last 26 world champs were in the top half of payroll.
There’s a massive correlation with payroll and postseason success. Economics matters. Free agent superstars want to win, they want to get paid, so they go to richer teams for a reason. Other sports that have salary caps, that don’t see such low salary floors, have more parity and happier fans.
Yeah the Rays and A’s never make the playoffs. Salary caps are actually bad for parity if you actually research it instead of having a biased ignorant opinion.
Except we’ve seen the A’s, Rays, Twins, Indians, Royals, Brewers, Rockies, Pirates, Orioles and even Tigers all make multiple postseason appearances in the past decade.
The Rockies are generally speaking a poorly run franchise. Economics has nothing to do with that.
the ink isn’t on the paper yet
A 34HR, 4.4 rWAR season that helped the Cardinals make the postseason, completely paid for by the Rockies. One of the worst deals in recent memory.
Duh