Last winter, Josh Bell found himself on the move. The Pirates, the only team for which he’d played in his career, were amidst a full rebuild. Bell was down to his final two seasons of arbitration control, and his escalating salaries were accounting for a larger percentage of Pittsburgh’s annually low payrolls.
Bell’s value last winter was complicated by a subpar 2020 showing. While he seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order slugger with a .277/.367/.569 showing the year before, the switch-hitter stumbled during the shortened season. Bell appeared in 57 of the Bucs’ 60 games but he hit only .226/.305/.364 across 223 plate appearances. Of perhaps even greater concern, his strikeout rate spiked from 19.2% to a career-high 26.5%.
In need of a first baseman, the Nationals took a shot on a Bell bounceback. Washington acquired the Texas native for a pair of pitching prospects, Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe. While Bell didn’t completely regain his 2019 numbers, that move largely paid off for Nats’ general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff.
The 29-year-old appeared in 144 games and tallied 568 trips to the plate this past season. His 27 home runs were the second most of his career, trailing only his 37 longballs from 2019. Overall, Bell hit .261/.347/.476, an offensive showing that checked in 18 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+.
In addition to the improved results, Bell seemingly rediscovered his better process at the dish. He cut his strikeouts back to their typical range, punching out in only 17.8% of his plate appearances (about five points lower than average). His rate of contact on swings rebounded to 77.4% after cratering to 69% during his down year in 2020. Those better bat-to-ball skills came without sacrificing contact authority. Bell’s average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard contact rate (52%) in 2021 were each career bests.
The one alarming aspect of Bell’s batted ball profile that carried over from 2020 was an uptick in ground-balls. While he’d only put 44% of his batted balls on the ground in his 2019 peak season, that spiked to 55.7% in 2020 and checked in at 53.5% this year. So Bell gave back some of the impact of his hard contact by hitting the ball into the turf, explaining why his power numbers didn’t bounce all the way back to 2019 form.
Even still, Bell had a decent season. His numbers were a bit better than the .257/.338/.454 leaguewide mark from first basemen. His 2019 campaign offers a hint of further offensive potential, and Bell had a quietly strong second half. From the All-Star Break onward, he hit .277/.381/.506 with more walks than strikeouts (albeit with a still concerning 55.9% grounder percentage).
That largely went unnoticed, though, because Washington had since fallen out of contention. While the Nats had hoped that a Bell resurgence would be part of a team-wide bounceback that’d keep them competitive in the NL East, things didn’t play out that way. Washington hovered around the periphery of contention for the season’s first few months, but a mid-July swoon kicked off a deadline teardown and organizational reboot.
Bell wasn’t part of that midseason sell-off, but there figures to be a bit more interest around the league after his strong play down the stretch. He’s now entering his final year of club control, and the Nationals don’t seem to have a plausible path to contention next season. It’s not clear Washington wants to entertain a multi-year rebuild — with Juan Soto under club control for three more seasons, there’s not much time to dawdle — but Bell’s ticketed for free agency next winter anyhow. Trading him coming out of the lockout wouldn’t be a sign of a longer-term rebuild so much as a recognition of their unlikely contention status in 2022.
The first base market didn’t move much before the transactions freeze. Freddie Freeman’s status seems to linger over both free agency and trade possibilities. Beyond Freeman, Anthony Rizzo remains on the open market. The A’s seem likely to trade Matt Olson. Perhaps the Yankees will move Luke Voit. Some of those dominoes may have to fall before there’s much progress on a potential Bell trade.
At a projected $10MM arbitration salary, he’s not going to bring back a return as strong as Oakland would get for Olson or New York would recoup for Voit. There’ll be teams in the Freeman/Olson markets who don’t land those stars, though. The upcoming collective bargaining agreement may introduce a universal designated hitter, leaving some National League clubs looking for another bat. Some of those teams figure to see Bell as a viable alternative to the market’s costlier options. Given the Nationals’ current competitive situation, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he’s donning a different uniform for the third straight year come Opening Day.
White Sox would be a good fit. At DH
The man can hit.
In 2019 he had 300 total bases.
That’s formidable.
Yeah, but he was essentially three different hitters in 2019. First two months, he was an MVP caliber hitter. June-July, he was about league average. August-September, he was a good hitter, but not MVP level.
Again, I choose not to focus on 19 when the ball was juiced. Last year showed he can be adequate and perhaps a sixth or seventh hitter on a contender. The problem I see is the position he plays is normally a three through five bopper.
I agree. His peak, juiced-ball 2019 numbers are not what a team should expect moving forward. That said, I actually took a look at his career stats, and even downgrading his 2019, he’s shown himself to be a solid 115 OPS+ hitter. In other words, he’s not just a creation of the 2019 ball. Doesn’t even K that much. His shortened 2020 season is more the aberration in his career. Downside is he’s not a great fielder, and those ground-ball numbers could be an issue if that’s the new him. He could turn south quickly.
I think Bell’s 2019 numbers were largely inflated due to the juiced ball. When it comes to predicting a hitters future projection I frequently throw 2018/2019 stats out the window unless they fall in line with 2016/2017 stats. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are a couple other players I think will never hit close to how they did in 2019. If 2019 was an outlier, don’t trust the player will ever do that again.
Lord What do we say about a player who DIDN’T have a career year in 2019?
Looking at player stats, I think 2020 should be thrown out completely.
LOL
You’re not far off. 2020 had complications never before faced and was just 37% of a normal season. it’s really a crap shoot for a lot of players given 29 and 20. As 18 is now years away, I value 2021 for players with a track record or to validate 19 and 20. As a Sox fan, 21 to me shows JDM’s 2020 was not an indication he was washed up. It also shows the numbers put up by Devers and Bogaerts we’re real. The opposite end is Chavis who hit bombs in 19 when he came up but simply was overmatched thereafter. Given the money thrown about today, I’d be leary to give certain players long term deals right now just to lock up their arb years. A few exceptions of course but overall, I’d like one more year to look at them.
Question any hitter who had a career power and HR season in 2019, the year of the juiced ball.
He’s a solid 1B, but not great. His best position is DH, but is inconsistent every year. He’ll start out hot then cool down, or vice versa.
As the above comments noted, Bell is an example of the nonsense sprouted as to how the “Universal DH (a fancy way of the saying the NL will have the DH as well as the AL) will create 15 new jobs for ML players that can’t field on other teams. Should he stay with the Nat’s he’ll do some DH’ing and play some 1B….same as he would with any other team. Point being that the Nationals have no reason to trade something of value for a JD Davis or a Robinson Cano, etc. and make them a DH. Every team has at least one guy like Bell.
Mr. Bell seems doomed to play for team like the current Nationals, Twins, Rockies, DBacks, etc. – teams that are not really contending nor are they in a serious rebuild. An in-between team that tries to fool their fans that they got a power hitter so maybe they’ll “surprise a lot of people this year”.
I saw (and still do) see a lot of people saying that the Pirates got an awful return for Bell. But what do you expect for a bat-first/only 1B who had less than 5 fWAR in 5 seasons with the Pirates?
@ mlb1225;
I’m a fan of good defensive 1B’s – particularly LH throwers. Knowing a solid player is at 1B, the other 3 infielders can play a lot more relaxed and confident knowing that if they have to rush a throw just getting it around the bag will work.
I don’t rate Bell at the level of JD Davis and Nick Castellanos (who I believe are the two worst fielders in MLB), but he’s not far behind them.
@Samuel You would love Evan White then, defensively.
Samuel -you mean Nick “unplayable in the field” Castellanos? I know we all drink the koolaid here and believe every morsel of baseball knowledge the baseball gods here at mlbtr feeds us, but try watching a game. Castellanos has improved greatly from when he was thrown into RF after being forced to learn 3b on the fly. Hes not that bad really. I mean, hes no gold glove winner, but have you seen schwarber play the of.
It’s crazy to think that Castellanos actually was drafted as a SS! The Tigers moved him over to 3B immediately though. Then, when they signed Fielder, in his second season with Detroit they had to move Cabrera to 3B because V-Mart was the DH & back from his knee injury, which is why they signed Prince in the first place the year prior. So Castellanos went to the OF. He’s definitely better suited for the DH spot, but when here in Detroit, Nick probably was better at 3B than RF, imho. At least going by the eye test he was. Idk what the actual numbers were & idk how much he’s declined defensively since he’s been gone either.
@Samuel: I see your point about Bell being with teams that haven’t openly thrown in the towel but aren’t seriously competing. He’s an in between player for an in between team. He’s not really there to win it for you. Just to make sure the fans aren’t totally ashamed of who their team is fielding. He could still win a world series but I doubt he will ever be one of the main centerpieces of a team that does. His numbers fall in line great for a defensively gifted middle infielder or catcher. For a sub par first baseman? Not so much.
Lol… It’s black and white! Stop trying to impress yourself!
Not every team has a guy sitting on the bench who can bat 20% above the league average.
The NL DH will probably open up 5-6 jobs for mostly full time DH’s. Guys like JD Davis will have a larger market. They don’t have much trade value because guys without positions simply don’t.
But you can even look at a good team like the Dodgers, who will need to add another bat. That will either be a 3B to allow Turner to move to DH. Or they could acquire a guy like JD Davis who could also rotate between the 2 positions.
JD can put a glove on and play another corner slot in a pinch. Nothing is done well but the Dodgers are the same team who stuck Max Muncy at 2B and Gavin Lux in the OF.
The only issue with the full time DH is teams don’t want that position anymore. They’d rather a rotation for rest system like the dodgers did in 2020 (I’m aware other teams actively use it my fandom is leaking). The only true full time DHs left are Cruz, Alvarez, and Martinez and Martinez can play OF when needed. So I honestly doubt the universal DH opens up many more opportunities for a JD Davis trade because most teams want that spot to be semi fluid
IDK. The Nats trade Scherzer, Turner, Gomes, Harrison, Hand, Hudson, and Lester, but that’s not a “serious rebuild”?
Of course, Mike Rizzo will agree with you, but I’m a Nats fan and to me, this feels like a tear/down rebuild. If Strasburg and/or Corbin had any trade value they’d be gone too. Unfortunately, we are paying them big money to be injured or pitch poorly.
All but Turner were gone anyway, and Turner’s a free agent after 2022. If the Nats had made no trades last season they’d still be rebuilding now. But they wouldn’t have Ruiz, Gray, Thomas etc.
He’s not “solid” at first, he is horrendous. Can’t throw, can’t field.
I agree. Coming from a Pirate’s fan, they should know better than spout such nonsense. He is objectively one of the worst defensive first baseman every single year.
I mean solid as in you can get by with him if you have to play him in the field because he’s a decent hitter. Not solid defensively. That’s why I said his best position is DH.
Yeah, but who in MLB has better hair at first base? It’s luxurious!
Solid 1B? Didn’t watch him play 1B last year, but for the Pirates he may have been the single WORST defensive player I have ever seen in my 65 years of life.
I’d take Bell here in Philly. If there’s a DH, I’d play Bell at first and Hoskins at DH. If no DH, I am not averse to using Bell in LF as the strong side of a platoon. Okay, Bell wouldn’t be a great LF, but he’d be serviceable.
Also like Dom Smith (Mets) in Philly should the Mets look to trade him. Neither Bell nor Smith figure to command a top prospect in return, so the cost to acquire either will be minimal. That’s good because Philly has a Bottom 5 rating for its farm system.
The Phillies defense is already pretty questionable
Oh God, Bell in Philly? Those fans and media would destroy him! It would be…what’s worse than ‘ugly’? Horrific?
Bell at 1b makes JD Davis look like solid glove option, and I’ve never seen Davis play first. (Yes, I’m a Mets fan.)
In Davis’ defense, the majority of his errors come on throws, especially the ones where he has too much time. His glove work and quickness are actually pretty darn good. I’ve seen Davis make some downright incredible plays.
All that being said, I think Davis has more trade value, dollar wise, than Bell. Bell MUST dh, whereas at least Davis can provide short term insurance at 1b, 3b and lf in addition to starting at dh – and is a LOT cheaper.
No thanks. As much as I believe in a Bell rebound, two 1B/DH types along with Bohm isnt a formula for success. Maybe if Bell could be had for cheap, but all three would still be hard to roster together.
Why would the Yankees trade Voit in order to trade for Bell? I would think they’d just keep Voit he’s better. He had an injury marred season is all. If they trade Voit I’d have to imagine it would be to make room for Olson or he’d be included in an Olson deal. I know this is a rumor site but some of them are just idiotic.
I don’t think anyone implied that the Yankees should acquire Bell.
@Mystery Team —The only thing mentioned about Voit was a hypothetical return for a Voit trade or an Olson trade would be,better,than a return that Washington should expect for,Bell.
BTW, people posting over the years here have made far more idiotic trade proposals than a Voit and Bell swap. Those crazy trade suggestions always make me laugh and that is what makes this site,fun
If the Yankees throw in Frazier and Andujar no way Nationals turn it down
Frazier is in Chicago
Frazier, lol. He’s already been cut.
Are you saying they would need to add Refsnyder ?
The only reason is if they’re looking for some lineup diversity by adding in a lefty bat.
Health concerns for one. But they could also use a LH bat. Bell switch hits and is better LH.
The Yankees have always liked switch hitters because they bat LH’d in about 3/4ths of their ABs, and they can take advantage of the short RF, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they took a shot at acquiring Bell.
On the downside, he’d be another not-great defensive 1B’man. They’ve been acquiring pitchers who throw sinkers, or having existing ones begin to incorporate more over the past year, particularly after the the foreign substance ban on baseballs. That suggests to me they’re going to look for strong defenders at both SS and 1B. For the latter, they could bring Rizzo back or trade for Olson.
Bell will cost a lot less than Olson (who I would rather have, but the As may want a ton). Rizzo is fine as well, but the Yanks will probably prefer the shorter $$ commitment with Bell.
Dom Smith is someone else that might fit.
They play Sanchez @ C, but your concern is Bell isn’t a GG firstbaseman?
Lefty
Maybe 1B for Red Sox? DH for Tampa? The Nats should probably wait to see if the NL gets the DH. A lot of teams would get interested in a hurry.
Maybe Tampa can work something out with Kiermaier going to Washington and Bell becoming their DH (replacing Cruz)
The Nationals traded 1 year of Trea Turner and a bunch of expiring contracts for 10 prospects. This idea that they are stripping the budget to the bones will cost them significant dollars and after two down years and a lockout I do not see why the Nats owners would want a third down year in revenue. The nats would make more money by keeping Bell and spending $30-40 million on a couple of bats to give them the opportunity to win 75+ games because DC fans will not attend losing teams games. If Nats draw 18,000 – 20,000 per game instead of 28,000 – 30,000 per game that will cost them $80-100 million in revenue. There is no indication the Nationals are entering a strip down rebuild other than rank speculation. Bell was active with the fan base even when he was hitting below .200 so I think dumping him would cause more harm than good for the team.
I always thought Bell was a better than average hitter here in Pittsburgh and certainly, his high water mark in terms of power was the first half of ‘19. But sure, I think he can be counted on for 20 or 25 homers a year.
The problem always seemed to be his glove. Not a lot of defensive prowess at first, not a great deal of range. At the same time, not fleet of foot to where he could be a starter in the outfield. To me, he’s always been the perfect DH candidate with some spot starts in the field thrown in
Bell is one of the classiest dudes in the majors. (Watch him and Harold Reynolds talk with Jackie Robinson’s daughter on YouTube).
Hope he gets traded home to Dallas to the newly competitive Rangers.
Wait that would be an interesting trade…
I really don’t see the return being worth the trade. Bell is not spectacular but he is solid and I think the fan base took a liking to him pretty quickly. I’d prefer an extension to keep him around
Even if the Nats aren’t trying to compete in 2022, they’re still trying to keep Juan Soto happy. They’re using Bell to protect Soto in the lineup, and Bell probably wouldn’t bring enough return to disrupt that. They’d probably only trade Bell this offseason if they sign another bat to replace him.
Could this be yet another case of a hitter competing in the homerun derby only screw up his swing?
As a Nats fan I saw a lot of Josh Bell’s defense last year, and by the Mark I eyeball test he was far from a disaster. The defensive metrics bear that out. His UZR/150 was the best of his career, and his numbers at fielding percentage, RF/9, and RF/G were all league average or very close to it. This is likely why he had a higher bWAR in 2021 (3.1) than he did in 2019 (2.8).
I mean, I look at the defensive numbers that he put up at 1b while in Pittsburgh, and I get it. Those numbers are pretty terrible. But in DC in 2021 he wasn’t bad defensively.
Washington Baseball Team should hold onto Josh Bell. The organization needs a few major leaguers on the 40-man roster to attract it’s usually meager home attendance.
Lol Washington Baseball Team. I see what you did there.
Meager? Is league average attendance meager? Pretty sure Nats attendance has been middle of the pack for the last 3-4 years.
So, it took a WS championship to get them up to the middle of the pack? Kind of proves my point.
Sorry. You’re still wrong. They were ranked between 11th-14th in the three years leading up to the WS as well.
Middling at best, but you can be right if you so desire.
If he gets dealt again I’ll finally have to switch the Iron Maiden and Pens based nickname I’ve been sitting on for awhile now.