Draft Signings: 7/19/21
A few notable draft signings for Day Two selections:
- The Braves signed right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to a $1MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That checks in a bit below the $1.1855MM slot value associated with the 59th overall pick. A two-way star at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher on draft day. He pitched exclusively in relief for the Cornhuskers this season because he was the team’s everyday shortstop, but it’s possible the Braves stretch him out as a starting pitcher in pro ball. Keith Law of the Athletic is particularly bullish on Schwellenbach, ranking him the class’ #29 prospect pre-draft and praising his delivery, mid-90s fastball, and promising secondary pitches.
- The Cardinals have signed second-rounder Joshua Baez to a $2.25MM bonus, Callis reports. That’s well above the $1.3385MM slot value that accompanies the 54th selection. A corner outfielder from a Massachusetts high school, Baez had been committed to Vanderbilt University. He’s a high-volatility prospect, with some of the best raw power in the class but questions about his hit tool given the lack of quality pitching he faced in the Northeast. Baez’s huge upside earned him spots among the top 35 prospects in the estimation of Law, Baseball America, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. St. Louis saved a bit of bonus pool space by going underslot with UCSB right-hander Michael McGreevy in the first round.
- The Royals came to a $1MM agreement with fourth-rounder Shane Panzini, Callis reports. That’s nearly double the $538.2K slot value that comes with the 108th selection. Kansas City’s clearly more bullish than most public evaluators on Panzini, who came in at #239 in Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA noted that the right-hander can get his fastball into the mid-90s and has a clean delivery, but expressed concerns about his lack of impactful secondary pitches and advanced age for a prep draftee (he turns 20 in October). Nevertheless, the Royals were comfortable offering the New Jersey native seven figures to forego his commitment to the University of Virginia.
Carlos Martinez Undergoes Thumb Surgery
Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martínez has undergone surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Zachary Silver of MLB.com) this afternoon. Martínez was already known to be facing an extended absence — he landed on the 60-day injured list two weeks ago — but it’s nevertheless a disappointing development for the 29-year-old.
It’s not clear whether the procedure officially rules Martínez out for the remainder of the season, but that doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable assumption. If Martínez’s season is finished, it’s quite possible he’s already made his last appearance as a Cardinal. St. Louis has a $17MM club option on his services for 2022, but that’s a near lock to be bought out for $500K instead. Martínez’s performance before he suffered the injury simply hasn’t warranted that kind of financial outlay.
Martínez was a productive mid-rotation starter for much of his early career with the Cardinals. That earned him a five-year, $51MM extension in February 2017 that guaranteed he’d spend at least the first nine years of his big league career in St. Louis. Martínez continued to pitch at a high level through 2019 (spending that season in the bullpen) but has struggled mightily over the last two years. Between 2020-21, Martínez has pitched to a 6.95 ERA/5.18 FIP over 102 1/3 innings, with his once-strong strikeout numbers tailing off.
A lack of starting pitching depth has plagued the Cardinals all season, thanks in part to Martínez’s struggles. St. Louis was known to be on the hunt for pitching help last month, but it’s not clear the club will be in position to buy at the trade deadline. The Cardinals entered play tonight with a 46-47 record; that’s tied with the Cubs for third place in the NL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Brewers. They’re 7.5 back in the Wild Card race, with the Reds and Phillies also between them and the Padres, who currently hold the final playoff position.
Even if the Cardinals don’t wind up being buyers, the organization looks more likely to stand pat in advance of the July 30 trade deadline than orchestrate any type of sell off. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested last weekend selling wasn’t on the table.
As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat explores, there wouldn’t be a ton of obvious trade candidates on the St. Louis roster even if Mozeliak were more amenable to moving some veterans. A majority of the club’s key players are under team control through 2022, and St. Louis is certainly not about to embark on a full rebuild. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Andrew Miller are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, but all three have full no-trade rights — Molina and Wainwright based on their MLB service time, Miller through the terms of his free agent contract. Trading franchise icons like Molina or Wainwright midseason probably wouldn’t be under consideration for the front office regardless.
The one player on the Cardinals who stands out as the most obvious potential trade candidate is southpaw Kwang-hyun Kim. The 32-year-old has performed well over his first two seasons since coming over from the KBO, and he’s ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. There’d surely be demand from contenders seeking pitching help, but it seems there’s a potential obstacle to any Kim deal. A source close to Kim tells Jones the left-hander might consider opting out of the rest of the season and returning to his native South Korea if the Cardinals traded him. If that’s indeed the case, it’d essentially kill any chance of him getting dealt.
Royals Sign Second-Round Pick Ben Kudrna To Overslot Deal
The Royals have signed second-round draft pick Ben Kudrna for a $3MM signing bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s nearly double the $1.7298MM slot value associated with the 43rd overall selection.
Kansas City managed to meet the LSU commit’s asking price thanks to their underslot agreement with first-rounder Frank Mozzicato. The Royals inked Mozzicato to a $3.55MM bonus last weekend, nearly $2MM south of the slot value accompanying the #7 pick — an unsurprising development since most public evaluators projected the lefty as a late first round talent. By taking Mozzicato and Kudrna, the Royals elected to divide the bulk of their bonus pool nearly equally to a pair off well-regarded prep pitchers, rather than locking in on one blue chip prospect at the top of the class.
As their similar bonuses indicate, Mozzicato and Kudrna are seen by public evaluators as being a similar caliber of prospect. (Keith Law of the Athletic actually had Kudrna slightly ahead of Mozzicato on his pre-draft rankings). Law, Baseball America and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs all placed Kudrna between 40th and 60th in this year’s class. By all accounts, the Kansas righty’s a fairly prototypical high school projection arm with a good frame and delivery, low-90s velocity, and the makings of a pair of quality secondary pitches.
Padres Sign First-Round Pick Jackson Merrill
The Padres have come to terms on a deal with first-round pick Jackson Merrill, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $1.8MM signing bonus that checks in well shy of the $2.5701MM slot value associated with the #27 overall selection.
Of course, Merrill’s willingness to sign for less than slot value played a role in the Friars selecting him in that spot in the first place. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Merrill between 72nd and 101st in their pre-draft rankings. It’s safe to presume Padres’ evaluators are higher on Merrill than those public prognosticators, but the Friars were no doubt aware he’d be willing to take an underslot deal in the first round to forego his commitment to the University of Kentucky.
Evaluators write that Merrill came on strong towards the end of his high school season. The Maryland native has a prototype infielder’s build with some power projection and bat speed. BA and Law express some trepidation about the consistency of his hit tool, though, and all three outlets agree he’s likely to outgrow shortstop down the line.
Merrill’s underslot agreement saves a little less than $800K for the Padres to reallocate to some of their later selections. Second-rounder James Wood is the only other prep player among San Diego’s top ten picks, so it’s likely he’ll wound up with a bonus significantly above the $1.1MM slot value associated with the 62nd pick.
Luis Robert To Begin Rehab Assignment
White Sox star center fielder Luis Robert has been cleared to begin a minor league rehab assignment, the team announced. He’ll be assigned to High-A Winston-Salem and begin play on Wednesday. Robert has been out since early May after suffering a Grade 3 strain of his right hip flexor tendon.
Rehabbing position players can spend up to twenty days in the minors, so Robert’s in line to return to the major league club by the second week of August barring any sort of setback. He’ll follow shortly after left fielder Eloy Jiménez, who began a rehab assignment of his own a little more than a week ago.
At the time of his injury, it wasn’t clear whether Robert would be able to return at all this season. Not only is he line to do so, he’s returning to game action after about two and a half months. That’s a surprisingly welcome development after the initial prognosis suggested he’d need three to four months before even beginning baseball activities.
One of the game’s best defensive outfielders, Robert got off to a hot start at the plate before going down. Across 103 plate appearances, he’s hitting .316/.359/.463, a step up from the average offensive production he posted last year.
When Robert and Jiménez went down, outfield looked like a natural potential area for an upgrade. Chicago has coasted to a 7.5 game lead in the AL Central largely without that duo, though, and their impending returns lessen the need for GM Rick Hahn and the front office to explore that market before the July 30 trade deadline.
Setbacks from Robert and/or Jiménez could obviously change that, but the outfield no longer looks like a problem area for the South Siders. Indeed, the front office is expected to prioritize finding bullpen help over the next couple weeks, writes Bruce Levine of 670 the Score. On the position player side, Levine notes that the organization’s bigger concerns are now second base and catcher, where Nick Madrigal and Yasmani Grandal have gone down with respective injuries of their own.
Rays Sign Cooper Kinney
The Rays announced they’ve come to terms with Cooper Kinney, whom they selected in Competitive Balance Round A in this year’s draft. Kinney’s signing bonus is at or near the $2.1481MM slot value associated with the #34 overall selection, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
A high school infielder from Tennessee, Kinney was rated by most public evaluators a bit lower than where he ultimately wound up selected. Baseball America slotted him 69th among the class’ prospects, while Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs placed him 47th. Both outlets praised Kinney’s advanced hit tool from the left side and power projection while expressing some trepidation about his future defensive home since he’s already moved off of shortstop.
Kinney received full slot value to sign away from his commitment to the University of South Carolina, so selecting him wasn’t a ploy by the Rays to save money and cut overslot deals with later selections. Evidently, Tampa Bay’s evaluators are a bit higher on Kinney’s long-term potential than are most in the public sphere.
Tigers Sign Ty Madden
The Tigers announced Monday that they’ve agreed to terms with No. 32 overall pick Ty Madden. The now-former Texas right-hander signed for a $2.5MM bonus that comes in north of his slot’s $2,257,300 value, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (via Twitter).
Entering the draft, Madden was seen as one of the top three or four college arms available, but he slid down the board a bit and landed with the Tigers with the second pick of Competitive Balance Round A. The 21-year-old was lights out from 2020-21 with the Longhorns, pitching to a combined 2.34 ERA with a 35.4 percent strikeout rate against an 8.7 percent walk rate through the life of 138 2/3 innings.
Madden ranked as the draft’s No. 9 prospect at MLB.com and was listed 12th both at Baseball America and FanGraphs. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel tabbed him 19th, and Madden landed 23rd on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. Listed at 6’3″ and 215 pounds, Madden sits in the 95-96 range with his fastball and leans on a slider that draws praise as a plus pitch from scouts. His changeup is a lesser-used offering but gives him a chance at a third average or better pitch to incorporate in his repertoire.
The Tigers were focused on arms early in this year’s draft, selecting pitchers with eight of their first 11 picks — including Madden at No. 32 and high school right-hander Jackson Jobe with their top pick at No. 3 overall.
Anibal Sanchez Not Planning To Pitch In 2021
Aníbal Sánchez is no longer planning to pitch this season, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). While Sánchez received some major league offers, according to Heyman, none were at his desired level. Specifically, Sánchez was seeking an incentive-laden deal that would’ve increased the contract’s value based on the number of games he started. Apparently, no teams put forth an offer of that kind to his liking.
Sánchez didn’t sign over the winter due to concerns about COVID-19 and accompanying protocols. He conducted a few showcases for teams during the early part of the regular season, but there’d been no word of his plans since late April. It’s now clear he won’t be signing anywhere this year.
There’s no indication Sánchez is contemplating formal retirement at this point, but it’s not out of the question he’s already made his last MLB appearance. Sánchez will be 38 years old by the start of the 2022 season, and it’s difficult to imagine he’ll receive loftier offers next winter after sitting out the year. The veteran righty was a productive member of the Nationals’ 2019 World Series winner, but he’s coming off a difficult 2020 campaign.
Sánchez has appeared in parts of fifteen major league seasons. He’s made 350 appearances (327 starts) and worked to a 4.05 ERA/4.08 SIERA across 1948 1/3 innings. Sánchez’s best season to date came with the Tigers in 2013, when he led the American League in ERA (2.57) and FIP (2.39) en route to a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting.
Dodgers Place Gavin Lux On Injured List
JULY 19: Los Angeles has placed Lux on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain. It seems he could be in for something of a lengthy absence, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) his recovery “could take some time.”
JULY 18: Dodgers infielder Gavin Lux left today’s 6-5 loss to the Rockies with a hamstring injury. Lux immediately grabbed his left hamstring area while breaking out of the batter’s box on a ground ball in the ninth inning, and he was replaced at shortstop in the bottom half of the frame. Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts described the injury to reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) as a “cramp, mild strain-ish” type of problem, and Lux will likely miss at least a few games while team trainers and doctors perform tests.
Should the injured list be required for Lux, it will create another hole in a Dodgers roster that hasn’t really been entirely healthy at any point this season. Pitching injuries have been the larger issue for the defending World Series champions, but several notable position players have missed time, including Corey Seager‘s ongoing absence due to a broken hand. (Lux himself had a minimal 10-game IL stint due to wrist soreness back in April.)
Lux began the season as the Dodgers’ regular second baseman, but took over as the primary shortstop when Seager was sidelined. Seager is playing simulated games and might be pretty close to returning, but until he actually does get back, Chris Taylor will likely be the top option at shortstop if Lux is also out.
One of baseball’s top prospects during his time in the L.A. farm system, Lux has yet to really deliver on that high potential, though he has played only 124 big league games from 2019-21. Lux posted a .655 OPS over 151 PA in his first two seasons and appeared in only one game during the Dodgers’ postseason run last fall. Coming into this season with a starting gig, Lux has hit .227/.307/.349 with six home runs over 313 plate appearances. There is some element of bad luck at play, considering Lux’s .294 wOBA is well below his .320 xwOBA, but even that latter statistic is below average.
Mets Select Anthony Banda, Stephen Nogosek
Before this evening’s game against the Reds, the Mets selected the contracts of pitchers Anthony Banda and Stephen Nogosek. To create space on the 40-man roster, New York transferred righty Corey Oswalt from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list and designated outfielder Johneshwy Fargas for assignment.
Acquired in a minor trade with the Giants earlier this month, Banda’s now set to appear in his fifth consecutive big league season, although he only has 51 1/3 combined innings under his belt. Banda hasn’t yet had sustained big league success, with just a 5.96 ERA/4.66 SIERA over that time. The southpaw was well-regarded as a prospect before being set back by injuries, thanks largely to some excellent minor league numbers up through Double-A. Banda hasn’t translated his low minors’ dominance to Triple-A though, pitching to a 4.99 ERA with average strikeout and walk rates (22.6% and 9.2%, respectively) over parts of five seasons.
Nogosek is back in the majors for the first time since 2019. He made seven relief appearances with New York that year before being outrighted off the 40-man roster. The 26-year-old has spent the entire 2021 campaign with Triple-A Syracuse, pitching to a 5.76 ERA across 29 2/3 innings. The poor run prevention belies strong swing-and-miss numbers, as Nogosek has punched out a lofty 32.8% of batters faced in the minors this year.
With their outfield decimated by injury, the Mets selected Fargas to the big league roster in mid-May. He had four extra-base hits in just 22 plate appearances but went down with a shoulder problem himself. By the time he returned from the IL last week, New York’s other outfielders had already made their way back. The Mets will now have a week to trade Fargas or expose him to waivers.
Oswalt landed on the IL on July 6 with right knee inflammation. He’ll miss at least the majority of the rest of the season, with today’s transfer ruling him out for sixty days from the date of that placement. Before going down with injury, the 27-year-old tossed 10 1/3 innings across three appearances.