Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.
There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.
In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.
Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.
The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.
The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.
The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.
The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.
The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.
The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.
The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.
The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.
The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.
The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.
The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.
The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.
You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.
The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.
The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.
The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.
The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.
The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?
Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.
The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.
A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Kind of forgot he was a Free Agent
He looks like he’s going to get overpaid. I do think he’s a better pitcher than Melancon but after last year I can’t really justify Jansen getting twice as much as Melancon. I’d rather have Melancon and the money or two pitchers like Melancon over one pitcher like Jansen.
Does anyone else think Jansen looks like he’s balking almost every single time he throws a pitch? Does he pitch like that when runners are on base or does he stop doing the series of false leg kicks?
No, no, and … no.
So what you are saying is he doesn’t stop doing the false leg kicks when runners are on base? I find that hard to believe. It seems like he would have to so he doesn’t get called for balking.
In the So Cal market now. And I wouldn’t give him much over multiple years, he looks close to cooked. One year, if you think he still has it left in the tank, at fair value but not multiple years. And he balks all the time, that said a ton of relief pitchers do and it’s never called anymore. If you start calling that stolen bases may go up overall…
I was thinking the same thing. I couldn’t figure out why Blue Sky was saying “no, no and no.” Maybe he just thought it was funny. It seems like he’s so enthralled with Jansen though that he doesn’t even notice the balking thing and on top of that still thinks he’s worth a multi year deal that pays him like a solid #2 or #3 starting pitcher. I don’t know. It seems like a waste of money to me when you can get close production for much less. I’m glad someone else noticed his pitching tendencies look very similar to balking. More than anyone else I can think of in the league.
Frisco will grab him-makes sense.
He got called for 2 balks last year. Whether he appears to be balking more or not is irrelevant to the evaluation of his ability. Is Lebron James in decline because nobody calls him for traveling?
The dude is coming off a season with a 2.22 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 11.22 K/9, and .501 OPS against. The article points out that his walk rate was up. Okay, and his BAA was down to .153.
And he looks close to cooked? As a Giants fan, I’m not so sure about that.
Plus, age 34 isn’t exactly the end of the line for relievers. Many last well into their late 30’s/early 40’s. Especially the great ones.
Even more no, no, and no. I’m not “enthralled” with Jansen or anything of the kind, I was simply disagreeing with everything you said. There’s no “balking thing,” which can be easily proven by how often he’s called for one. You don’t need to invent any opinions for me. I pretty much come up with my own, thanks.
And probably both of them were intentional balks, something he started doing in the last year or so in some situations with runners on 2B.
You’re misunderstanding me, Blue Skies. I said “looks like he’s balking” and then I said “does he pitch like that when runners are on base?” I was trying to ascertain whether or not he changed his pitching style when runners are on base. The number of balks he has been called for is irrelevant because you can only get called for a balk when runners are on. I also wasn’t saying the appearance of what would be considered balking if runners were on base has anything to do with his value. That was why I made it a separate paragraph. Outside of them both being about Jansen the two paragraphs are unrelated.
The reason I said you “seem like you’re enthralled” with Jansen is because you shut down my idea that he probably shouldn’t be paid like a #2 or #3 starting pitcher. He is an aging reliever and people are projecting he should get paid like Sonny Grey. Jansen is a good pitcher but I think getting a decent starting pitcher would help most teams a lot more. That’s why I brought up Melancon. Melancon was solid last season. Not as good as Jansen but solid. Jansen isn’t likely to be worth twice as much as Melancon because he’s likely not going to win twice as many games for his team. My point there was why would a team want to pay Jansen that kind of money for Jansen when they can either get a decent starting pitcher or could have had Melancon for half the price so they could spend the $13 million they would have saved elsewhere. Anyone who thinks Jansen is worth twice as many WAR as Melancon is definitely enthralled with Jansen, IMO.
Also, even if he doesn’t pitch the same way with runners on, when he did have runners on he had 2 balks. That is a lot for a reliever. The vast majority of pitchers (including starting pitchers who pitch a lot more than Jansen) get zero balks all season. The vast majority of pitchers that do balk only get one balk all season. Being a reliever with multiple balks puts Jansen very high up on the balk list. Not that I’m saying it should have any influence in his value but pretending Jansen doesn’t ever do anything that even appears like he would be balking (with or without runners on) compared to the average MLB pitcher is just denying the obvious. The guy puts his foot on the rubber and motions toward the plate followed by him picking up his leg and putting it back down several times between every single pitch. Most pitchers don’t do that. He’s basically balking but doesn’t get called for it because it’s not against the rules when the bases are empty. For someone to bring that up and you to act completely clueless as to what they are talking about says a lot more about you than it does anyone else. At least other people acknowledged it. You’re just pretending his pitching style is exactly the same as everyone else’s and there’s nothing at all anyone should even mention about it. Obviously picking up a leg and then putting it back down repeatedly between every pitch is not normal for most MLB pitchers AND Jansen has been called for balking more than most MLB pitchers so I really don’t know what you’re talking about.
Sheesh, no wonder I’m misunderstanding you. Your argument is pretty difficult to follow, then it devolves into insults, which doesn’t exactly help.
You said it yourself, it isn’t a balk when it isn’t called as one. And yes it certainly makes a difference if a pitcher balks deliberately, which Jansen started doing recently in certain situations. These intentional balks “count” as a balk but they are a choice not a mistake. I’m not sure if you’re saying that umpires are failing to catch him at something, but if so that seems like a pretty outlandish theory to me.
FWIW, Jansen’s pitching style has changed quite a bit over the last few years. In addition to the obvious change to the mix, for awhile he added a quick-pitch, which he no longer uses. He also added that funky hip twitch before his windup, which I believe is some sort of mechanical adjustment. It isn’t a balk either. So many pitchers do their own things on the mound either to adjust their delivery or deceive batters, it’s beyond me to understand why you are so fixated on Jansen.
I have very little interest in the argument over how much he or anyone else gets paid, and not especially whether he’s “worth” what he does get paid. The player market decides these things, and no matter what he or any other player gets paid, somebody will always claim it’s way too much. Just because, you know, they said so. I tune that out because it’s mostly a circular argument.
He balked twice last year, that’s hardly all the time.
Pirates all the way lol
Think they’ll have enough after they sign Correa?
they’re going all in this year
C’mon Tsutsugo for MVP baby!
Don’t you need to have wins to close to have a closer?
Money talks. Which ironically the pirates can’t offer that either.
I select Pirates every time its an option on one of these polls.
Good I approve. Someone has to stick up for us Pirates fans.
I think the ray should get him… We dont really have The Guy that gets us a lot of saves…
Pass if he wants 13 mil.
I ultimately think Jansen stays a Dodger, however I wouldn’t discount the Cards, Phils, or Jays from potentially signing him.
Philadelphia
I voted the Mariners. They need a closer. He might get stuck taking a short term deal. Which works for both sides.
I think we’ll stick with Steckenrider, Sadler, and Sewald in some capacity, but if he settles for cheap I won’t complain. Rather spend that money on Bryant or Story though.
Also add munoz, castillo and giles to that mix
I would say Dodgers, but the Jays could be a good bet as well after they said they’re ready to spend after the lock out. I would say the Jays are more than capable of landing;
Kikuchi, Bryant, Jansen and either trade for another INF/OF or just sign another bat like Seiya Suzuki, Rizzo or even Freeman. It’ll be problematic to have another 1B so I would say either trade fir Ramirez or Marte. Bryant plays 1B, 3B, OF. Marte plays 2B, SS and CF, J-Ram plays 3B, 2B. If it was for me!
Jansen, Kikuchi, Bryant and either Freeman, Marte or Ramirez. If you’re going to spend, go big!
to4:
“…or just sign another bat like Seiya Suzuki, Rizzo or even Freeman.”
It’s not as easy as you make it sound to sign FAs. It isn’t like the Jays can just make up their minds and just do it. There will be plenty of competition to sign guys like Bryant, Suzuki, Jansen, or Freeman. They may want to sign them and pursue them aggressively, but still not land any one of them.
And as for trading for Ramirez or Marte, the cost will be high in prospect capital. And there will be competition from other teams to acquire them. Marte is a possibility, if they’re willing to pay the price. Ramirez seems to be unavailable at this point, unless they blow the guardians away with an offer.
Really think the Phillies could use the stability more than any other team
If they turn that pen from a negative to a + that Div is in play for them
Phillies got their guy. I also think their pen woes are often caused by poor defense.
Knebel was a good get.
My guess is that Phillies will end up in fourth.
29 teams in on this one. The only one that isn’t is the Rockies, cuz Jansen can’t pitch there (due to his old heart condition).
I picked the Dodgers. Unless you are getting paid, by the word, half of the teams mentioned in those one- and two-sentence write-ups, have virtually no chance of signing him.
There are 9 lines devoted to the Yankees, Brewers, Cleveland, and Angels.
Why not group together all the teams that have no chance and have two lines saying “these 15 teams have no chance”?
Interesting how many people are picking the Dodgers when they’ve already signed somebody else for the closer job. The moment they signed Hudson, Jansen’s career with the Dodgers was over.
It was Treinens extension that showed me that Jansen would be shown the door
I do not assume that Jansen’s career with Dodgers is over. It all depends on the new CBA. And Dodgers will not go two years so if another team offer multiple years, the Dodgers will not match it. I assume that Blake Treinen is the closer, not Hudson. Does anyone who follows the Dodgers actually think it is up for grabs?
Well, Hudson has closed a few games, but no matter how you figure they play the 9th (Treinen or Hudson, or some combination), the signing of Hudson shut the door on Jansen. He’ll be signed by someone to close and that job is filled on the Dodgers either way.
If Kenley leaves the Dodgers it won’t be for Boston or New York. He won’t leave the L.A. media hype/excuse machine for markets that will nitpick every thing he does when he goes through is annual rough stretches.
I could see Toronto or St.Louis
The Cards have been down the veteran closer rabbit hole. No thank you. I know they have stated a desire to improve the bullpen, but I see that improvement coming through multiple mid range arms, not one expensive arm. I’d welcome back Joe Kelly if the price was right, but I wouldn’t promise him the 9th.
While I feel the Tigers could really solidify their bullpen by adding a proven closer, dropping Soto, Fulmer and Cisnero to set up, I don’t see them moving that way. I see them adding depth to middle relief, and hopefully a Lefty.
Chafin would be my first choice, but Shreve is more likely. If they spend any big money, I expect it to be on a starter. Avila worked under Dombrowski for so long, I just don’t see him being willing to spend big for a closer.
The Jays should sign him. After they get a SP for the 5th spot, upgrade 2, upgrade LF and add bench pieces. They can do that with the remaining 25 to 30M in payroll space right?
Theoretically. Joc Pederson, Jonathan Villar, and Tyler Anderson could all be had for around $13-14 million total and the rest to Janson
If they make those acquisitions I’ll run the 2 block on car roofs during rush hour to Rogers Center to get a refund on my season tickets…lol
Although I do like Anderson as the Longman.
You want to sign 5 or six players for $30 million or less you are either signing players out of the bargain bin or are stuck in 1998.
Realistically Jansen himself would cost the lions share of that money. You won’t get Jansen or say Kris Bryant combined for that kind of money. If you somehow do, you are not getting a starting pitcher to add to the mix. $30 million doesn’t go as far as it used to
Yep. I can see the Jays making 2 and on the very outside, 3 more moves. The first is a SP in the 10M neighbourhood. If they get Suzuki for the OF they’ll have money in the kitty for the TDL or add another RP.
Like you say, 30M doesn’t go as far as it used to.
Gurriel is a good ball player. No need to upgrade over him. Add an infielder, sure, and another SP. But Jansen should be their priority.
With arms like Romano, Cimber, and Richards—and possibly a bounce back from Merryweather—setting up Jansen, that would be a very formidable bullpen.
Strengthening the bullpen will do more good for the Jays than losing Semien will do harm.
Diamondbacks or Orioles look like the strongest candidates. All the other teams don’t have money or are not going to field a strong enough team to make the playoffs.
Mets sign Jansen and the same day sign Carlos Martinez. Flip Dom Smith JD Davis and 2 low top 150 minor leaguers to Arizona and reel in Ketel Marte with a sign and trade deal
I think you’re going to take a beating on this comment. Or maybe that was your intent.
JD Davis and Dom Smith for two low top 150 minor leaguers. There. I fixed that for you.
The D’backs could use a 3B but you are not getting Marte unless major prospects are included. And Arizona already has Pavin Smith so Dom Smith does nothing for them
If Mets are willing to absorb some salary, Dbacks could trade Ketel Marte and MadBum for Squirrel and Davis. Dbacks would need to throw in a little bit of cash.
That just makes the Mets more expensive. Is Marte really even an upgrade over McNeil?
For a real trade doozy, try Dom Smith and Robinson Cano for MadBum. TheDbacks save some money and the Mets get a #4/5 starter with postseason experience.
No one signs Carlos Martinez as a starter.
Jansen gets one year at $12-14 million. The White Sox want to sign him just to watch everyone fall to the ground laughing, but their common sense finally kicks in.
Can we all just agree to click on Pirates next time they have one of these all-team polls?
Sure. If the poll is whether or not the Pirates rebuild will take another 20 years…
No.
But yay Tsutsugo!
Hopefully not my Jays.
If the Phillies stop addressing the bullpen at Knebel, it was a mistake to spend all the earmarked BP money on one guy.
I don’t think they will and my vote for Jansen is Philadelphia.
Phillies will get him.
The End.
I selected the Mets they overpay for everyone past their prime.
My knee jerk reaction to the poll is Toronto, but will they have fans at games or even play there next year? Hockey and the Raptors are having a tough time with COVID right now.
Otherwise, they make the most sense for a team whose window is pretty open right now to make a real push. On a two year, 25MM deal, it would sure up their biggest hole.
Changed his delivery and usage last year. He probably wants too much though.
I think he ends up with the Cubs. If they compete he locks down the 9th. He has been great for a very long time and can mentor their young relievers. Jed has said he wants a veteran to teach them how to prepare. And most important, if Cubs are our of the race, closers are very easy to trade at the deadline for good prospect return.
White Sox. Then LaRussa can roll a die each time he needs a reliever to decide which guy will attempt to earn his overpay.
Dear Mariners, PLEASE sigh Andrew Chafin