Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.
Or, all of that could be rendered moot.
Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.
At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.
If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.
Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox
Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.
At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.
It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.
Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.
Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays
Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.
At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)
However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…
Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).
Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.
In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.
Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels
When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.
In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.
Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.
Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays
Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.
There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.
Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).
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A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:
Valdez is one of the nastiest lefties I have ever seen.
He could set the consecutive quality starts record
Nestor Cortez!! Just because.
Joe the “other” option on the poll above was definitely designed with you in mind haha.
At 2.73 ERA/143 ERA+/3.40FIP/0.96 WHIP/ & 11 QSs, you do have a valid point, Joe.
But, even at that the guys listed in the article are still better than Nestor in FIP, QS, & IP. His biggest challenge is going to be inning pitched because they’re going to keep him limited and he’s only at 135 now.
He deserves SOMETHING for the stache alone..
He DID start a throwback revolution of sorts with that dirty stache… point taken, sir, and I agree!
The Yanks gotta love ya when they allow you to keep the scruff!
Tell him to grow a Rollie Fingers mustache.
Pitching a lot in the AL east is also a big deal. Not super difficult to dominate some of those central and west clubs this year.
Keuchel must not have enough innings to qualify.
The hitters’ vote for most valuable pitcher.
The issue is he has played in two different leagues, so they are actually creating a new award called Major League Baseball Best Pitcher Ever Award. The MLBBPEA is awarded to a new pitcher that pitch in both leagues each year. The reason it’s given each year is because the media claims someone new is the best each year.
What…
He is easily the MVP in baseball…most valuable penis for being married to Kelly Nash.
I think it still goes to Verlander because writers love to vote on a story line
Probably, but would still be stupid. AL west teams rank 14, 19, 26, and 29th in runs scored. All those AL east pitchers are putting up similar numbers in a much tougher division.
Why do we still have separate awards , the two “ leagues” are exactly the same. Does the NBA give out a western and eastern conference mvp ? , no , one award at end of year. NFL , NHL no ? One mvp for the whole league. Baseball does not have two leagues anymore.
I think your argument will carry a lot more weight next year when the schedules change to playing every team. It would make a lot of sense what you are saying for that to be the way it’s done going forward.
Biased opinion. But without Manoah and Gausman the Jays aren’t even competitive.
If Verlander and McClanahan are done for the remainder of the regular season I think you have to give it to Manoah (if he finishes strong)
Manoah’s having a great year, but what makes him more deserving than Cease? Cease has a better ERA, FIP, K%, and has only 9 fewer IP. There’s the large walk difference, but if you include the 14 free passes given up by Manoah via HBP, Cease has let 68 people have a free trip to 1B vs Manoah’s 55. Manoah’s been excellent, but Cease has been just a little better.
Manoah’s not more deserving than Cease, but Manoah is a different style that might get a lot of support from the people who like a throwback workhorse. Plus he’s lined up for a pretty significant finish against only teams in direct competition with Toronto for post season spots. Gausman is on this list as well and Toronto media doesn’t seem to give much of a thought to him. All the love is for Manoah. I don’t know how that translates to the voters in other markets, but Manoah makes an impression on those who watch him.
Not just Manoah and Gausman but without Ross Stripling the Jays would be still fighting with the Red Sox for last!
I was nervous about the Gausman contract but man he has been awesome. And he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game on top of that. He likely won’t be in the Cy Young picture when the season ends but I’m glad to see he is getting the recognition he deserves.
You can chose the best.. JV.
Or, chose someone who isn’t currently injured.
Or choose, but yeah…
Thanx for rectumfying
Verlander has been the best all season, even if he doesn’t pitch again in the regular season, I’d say he is the front runner.
A big finish from Dylan Cease would make it interesting, Cease starts tonight against the A’s and is coming off a complete game shut out, one out away from a no hitter, Luis Arraez broke it up with two outs in the ninth, was listening to the game on the radio, was a great game, Sox were up 13-0 in the ninth but there is nothing like a no hitter to electrify a crowd, the final three innings were awesome, and even with the no hitter getting broken up, Cease recorded his first CG shutout, only 11 CG shutouts all season.
Cease’s award to win if he pitches out the season.
5 inning pitchers have no business being talked about as CY Young contenders. Maybe they need a Rolaids Opener award, because no matter how good the numbers, the manager will have an ulcer if he has to keep going to the bullpen in the 6th inning.
Cease has improved longevity of late. Last 7 of 9 starts at least 6ip. Also 156ip before tonight to JV’s 152ip compromised by injury. Hitting his stride.
What were his earlier starts then? Was he even making 5? You don’t get CY consideration for “last 7 of 9” starts. Its for the WHOLE season.
Yes Dumba$$, Cease has been the best pitcher in baseball THE WHOLE SEASON, hence the 5.5 bWAR referenced in article. And you should know that firsthand cause Cease is 21-0 with a 0.05 ERA against your loser Tigers for his career. Now go crawl back in your hole since you know nothing about baseball but still feel the need to post.. “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool then to speak and remove all doubt”
If Verlander doesn’t get it, my vote is Manoah or Cease.
Verlander, almost 40 years old still slinging it like this after an injury nonetheless. I haven’t seen this type of pitching dominance so late in a career since Roger Clemens. Hmmm
for real. i applaud him for the dominance…but eyebrows raised after TJ so late in the career.
Why Nolan Ryan pitched to 45, struck out 220 at 42, they had steroids back then, even if the possibility existed nobody bothered to mention it, now we have to mention it anytime a player has a good season.
Fact is many players who used performance enhancing drugs will fly under that microscope, and get accolades and HOF honors, and some of the greatest to ever play the game will be stripped of HOF honors because of their association with performance enhancing drugs, and that’s a fact. Maybe David Ortiz juiced up, and he’s in, but Manny isn’t and Manny was a much better hitter.
Just an example of what is possible. Great season for Verlander, TJ makes your arm stronger, best mechanics in the game, that’s how you pitch into your forties.
The Express was one of a kind. I don’t think we will ever see another player, let alone a fireballing pitcher in the game for 27 seasons.
TJ surgery saving and extending careers has had as much of an impact as any factor on Baseball in the past 50 years, so why wouldn’t the guy who was willing to be the first, threw 2200 innings before the surgery, 2500 after and over those 4700 innings put up a 3.34 ERA, 162 complete games, 46 shutouts and 61 WAR be in the hall of fame?
WampumWalloper, These threads are getting long…Someone said Tommy John shouldn’t be in the HOF? I missed the post I think..
Gausman has pitched well but he isn’t even in the same category as Verlander and McClanahan and Cease….
One month ago I would have said Verlander slightly over McClanahan….
Now we have a 3 way race and Cease has been lights out lately….
My vote goes to Cease right now but we still have a couple weeks of baseball left.
Let’s see , we discuss Ohatini as 1 or 2 for mvp award because of his value as both a hitter and pitcher , doesn’t it follow then cy award should be ohtani. ? If any of the others ( top cy candidates) could hit 30 plus homers etc you’d say they are the pitcher you want. Give both cy and mvp to ohtani.
Tough to pitch so well and bat everyday. No four days off between starts.
Think about it.
Amazing
I told you guys BEFORE the season started Dylan Cease would be the A.L. Cy Young Award winner. It’s not close. Verlander went down. White Sox starting to turn look like the World Series contender we all thought they were. Easy Money!!!
White Sox are not a contender for the WS, since the Astros are their daddy.
I’m a die-hard White Sox fan and this team doesn’t even look like a lock to make the playoffs, let alone contend for a title. Cease has a legit shot at the CYA this year, but to say it’s not close is ridiculous. It could still go to McClanahan if he comes back strong or to Manoah if Cease stumbles. And that’s without considering Verlander might return before the end of the year and still win it. If you want to put your money down on Cease winning the CYA or the White Sox winning a title, you go right on ahead. Most of us aren’t nearly so bullish, especially on the latter.
If they get in, the White Sox are the most dangerous team in the AL in my opinion.
Gonna get Tim Anderson back
I could go with most under-rated, maybe, but not the most dangerous. They have Cease and Cueto, but Kopech’s been worse of late and then who? Lynn’s turned it on lately, but has been awful most of the year and Giolito’s been even worse. The bullpen can be dominant or crap, depending on the night. The defense is shoddy. The offense has a severe power outage and they can’t even run the bases properly. If the fire is back and the team is healthy, they’ll be better than a lot of people think, but the Astros, Yankees, Jays, Mariners, and Rays are all better, especially the Astros, much as I hate to say it.
I think it goes to Shohei, him and Strider have been the nastiest with those K rates
Jim Sperm gets my vote. 3.2 Era and only 75 walks
Cease. Guy should have about 3 more wins and has pitched phenomenally since the beginning of August.
I think Verlander will win it. But I’d love Manoah on my Angels. He’s a beast.
I said Manoah but it would have been Verlander if he pitches enough innings.
I thought it was a toss-up between Cease and McClanahan for 2nd place when Verlander went down. Walk rate aside, a lot of similar numbers. With a strong finish from Cease, he might win if Verlander is shelved until the final week of the season or later. I love a good 3-way race, though. All of them are arguable. And then there’s Manoah, Ohtani, et al. Some outstanding performances in the AL this year.
It’s easily Cease if Verlander is out. It’s a shame the no hitter didn’t happen, as that, plus a late season playoff clinch by Sox would be too much to overcome for the others. Ceases last 19 starts are the best in American League history basically.
Ohtani is such a great story…but he has Verlander/Cease and Judge really blocking him this year.
I wouldn’t discount McClanahan or even Manoah if Verlander is out. Cease could stumble – we’ve seen it before where he just gives up 5 or 6 in an inning – but even without that, McClanahan has been about equal in a number of metrics.
As for Judge, I think that depends on the narrative. If he gets 62, which a lot of people still feel is the real HR record (myself included), I think he wins. If he doesn’t, there’s a very strong case to be made for Ohtani. I think it’ll be a really close vote either way.
*meant to say “If he gets 62, which a lot of people still feel would be the new real HR record”
Manoah is old school tough on the mound. He’s got my vote.
I love this article ticking off awesome stat after awesome stat for Ohtani then saying he has basically no chance for the Cy Young.
He would need more innings and a better ERA to have a legit shot this year. Too many guys ahead of him. Great season, but there are a few guys who have just been better.
Don’t stop me now
Another one Bites the Dust
I would love to see Cease win, but knowing how the Sox fair in such voting polls, it likely will not occur. With that walk rate of his, its the perfect excuse for the voters to vote for anyone else. If Cease was able to throw that ‘no hitter’ that may have been enough to force voters to vote for him, but now, they still have their excuse. Ill be pleasantly surprised if he does but Im not holding out hope with the way White Sox players typically fair in such award contests..
Verlander deserves the strongest consideration for both the MVP and CY Young Awards. No other player in MLB has had the level of impact on all levels of an organization than Verlander.
You can not quantify his impact on the Astros organization with his stats alone. His relentless work ethic established a model for all pitchers in the organization to emulate. It is no coincidence that RHP Hunter Brown’s mechanics and approach are nearly identical to Verlander’s.
The article above mentioned that LHP Framber Valdez is a throw back. You can make the argument that the every starter on the Astros’ staff is a throw back. Verlander’s set the example here.
RHP Misael Tamarez’s, recently promoted to AAA, FB jumped from the low 90s to the upper 90s after tweaking his grip and refining his mechanics.
Astros minor league coaches are imprinting Verlander on their pitching prospects.
Astros should give Verlander a lifetime contract. The team has something very special with Verlander.
This has nothing to do with trades, signings, call-ups, or other transactions. MLBTR’s original content about those is amazing, but its original content about stuff like this is no different or any better than the generic stuff Yahoo/ESPN/The Athletic puts out.
Unlike the Athletic and a lot of ESPN, though, this site is free. I like some of the content on The Athletic better (James Fegan is a terrific writer and I love some of the deep dives by Eno Sarris), I love that this site even has articles like this. They could just stick with rumors and transactions, which they do better than anyone else, but they’re going above and beyond and doing a terrific job overall.
I see a lot of this type of content for free on those sites, though. but one of them report on transactions and rumors the way MLBTR does. This article here isn’t very novel or hard-hitting.