Since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals have been on a downward trajectory. The went 81-81 in 2016 and have been below .500 in the five seasons after that. After rebuilding the farm for a few years, the club has been trying to return to contention over the past couple of seasons by giving out some aggressive contracts, at least by their modest standards. It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.
A significant factor in the club’s results has been that many of their top pitching prospects have struggled in the majors. Brady Singer seems to be front of the pack now, despite posting a 4.91 ERA in 2021 and getting demoted to the bullpen to start 2022. He wound up back in the rotation and finished the season with a 3.23 ERA. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall pick in 2019 but he has a 5.32 ERA in 199 2/3 innings thus far in the big leagues. Kris Bubic was taken 40th overall in 2018 but has a 4.89 ERA in over 300 MLB innings thus far. Jackson Kowar was selected 33rd overall in 2018 but has only been given 46 innings of action so far, in which he has a 10.76 ERA. Those are just a few examples of many.
For a team that doesn’t usually spend on marquee free agents, developing their own prospects into useful major leaguers is essential to their success and this is something they will need to get to the bottom of. Finding an explanation for all this likely won’t lead to a simple answer. It’s possible it has something to do with the scouting that led to those players being drafted in the first place, although public prospect evaluators have liked each of those players quite a bit. Perhaps it’s related to coaching or development in the minors. But it’s also possible the club’s major league catching is playing a role.
Salvador Perez has been the club’s catcher for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and firmly securing the job in 2013. He was the primary backstop as the club went to the World Series in consecutive years, winning the second trip in 2015. As much of that championship core moved on, he remained as the face of the franchise and unofficial captain. While he’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past three seasons, his defense is another matter.
Defensive Runs Saved has placed Perez at -5 in 2021 and -4 in 2022. Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment gave him a -14.8 last year, which was last in the majors, and -14.1 this year, which was third-last. Though Perez has had success throwing out baserunners in his career, his pop time was ranked by Statcast as 50th out of 83 catchers this year.
In terms of framing, the problem appears to be more chronic. FanGraphs has only given him a positive grade in that department once, which was the shortened 2020 season. He posted a -19.6 and -12.6 over the past two campaigns, bringing his career tally to -106.5. That’s last in the majors among all catchers from 2011 to the present. Baseball Prospectus is fairly similar, as Perez has been tagged with a negative number in each season except for 2013 and 2020, with a -14.3 and -14.2 in the past two years. Statcast framing data only goes back to 2015, but it also isn’t fond of his work. Apart from an even zero in 2020, he has all negative numbers there, including a -8 this year, fifth-worst in the league, and a -18 last year, which was dead last.
All of this isn’t to say that Perez is solely responsible for the club’s pitching woes. As mentioned, baseball teams have dozens of coaches and analysts who all play a role in the results. But these numbers surely aren’t ideal when trying to mold a batch of pitching prospects into effective major leaguers. It’s also possible that health is playing a role, since Perez underwent left thumb surgery in 2022. He was supposed to be out of action eight weeks but returned after just over a month and maybe wasn’t 100%. If better health in 2023 leads to better outcomes, that would be fantastic for KC. But if it doesn’t and the problem persists, finding a solution will have multiple challenges.
For one thing, there’s the fact that Perez, who turns 33 in May, is still under contract for at least three more seasons. As part of an extension he and the club agreed to in 2021, he’ll get $20MM in 2023 and 2024, $22MM in 2025, and then a $13.5MM club option for 2026 with a $2MM buyout. For a low-spending team like the Royals, he’s easily their highest-paid player.
Due to Perez having the catching position on lockdown, that’s led to MJ Melendez playing elsewhere. Melendez was a highly-touted catching prospect when coming up through the minor league ranks, but he also played some third base and the corner outfield spots in the minors in order to open up new paths of getting into the lineup. He made it to the big leagues this year, making 65 starts behind the plate and 37 in the outfield.
The results of this have been mixed, to put it politely. At the plate, Melendez finished the season with a 99 wRC+. That’s just a hair below league average overall but slightly above average for a catcher. Defensively, all of the advanced metrics gave him poor grades for his work on the grass, which isn’t terribly surprising since he’s effectively learning on the fly out there. But his numbers behind the plate are also quite poor. DRS gave him a -18 in 2022, the worst in the majors. FanGraphs framing gave him a -15.7, also dead last. CDA at BP gave him a -18.6, also dead last. Their BlkR, a measure of a catcher’s blocking ability, gave him a -1.1, again, dead last. Statcast’s framing metric had him at -12, second-worst in the league.
To be fair to Melendez, he has been given sporadic playing time in his first taste of the majors, while also trying to learn other positions. Becoming a successful major league catcher is already challenging enough without those extra factors thrown in. He’s also still quite young, turning 24 years old later this month. Ideally, he’d be given a full-time catching job and have some time to refine his game and see if he can hack it in the majors, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen in Kansas City as long as Perez is there.
There’s been nothing to indicate the club is considering supplanting Perez as the everyday catcher, but even if they did, that path would have its own challenges. The Royals have a cluttered first base/designated hitter mix at the moment, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier all candidates for at-bats in those slots. Some of those guys are candidates to move to the outfield corners, though that’s less than ideal defensively and also could squeeze out guys like Drew Waters, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel.
Taken all together, it’s hard to figure out how to put these ingredients together in a way that leads to something appetizing. With Perez behind the plate, Melendez is likely serving as a part-time catcher and outfielder who isn’t great at either spot. Giving the job to Melendez crowds out the 1B/DH picture and doesn’t even necessarily lead to better work behind the plate. It’s possible that either arrangement leaves roadblocks in front of the young pitchers in the system.
Clearly frustrated by the continued losing, the club has decided a shakeup is in order. They recently fired their long-time baseball ops leader Dayton Moore, with general manager J.J. Picollo now in charge of baseball operations. They also made a change in the manager’s seat, firing Mike Matheny and replacing him with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. They will be tasked with trying to turn a 65-win team into a contender. They’re looking up at a Cleveland team that just surged to the top and is built to stay strong for years to come. The White Sox and Twins had disappointing seasons in 2022 but will be looking to reload in 2022. There’s also a Tigers team that, though currently in a down cycle, is trying to overhaul its analytical systems and will surely spend aggressively once it does. The Royals have lots to deal with in the road ahead, but they might have to start by looking within.
Salvy is still young enough to catch every day (whether he should or not is another issue entirely) but might serve the team better as a full time DH and just let him rake. That said, we haven’t seen enough of Melendez to know what to expect from him defensively to know if he could handle the everyday job (though a lot of the young Pitchers coming up threw to him in the minors and may be more comfortable with him). I’m not entirely sure if the Catchers are the sole problem why the Royals young starters are getting hammered in the big leagues
Melendez is their future, but Perez is still valuable. My perception from afar is that Perez doesn’t want to move off catcher, or even reduce his catching time. He takes pride in catching more games than anyone. The Royals need to tell Perez what they’re doing, not the other way around. He still has value, but the player shouldn’t be calling the shots. Perhaps Perez catches 100 games in 2023 with Melendez catching 50-60, and then flip those in 2024 as Melendez becomes the primary, assuming he shows he’s capable. Salvy still has enough bat to DH and be valuable as the second catcher. Will he accept that? He should have no say.
Melendez might be the future, but not behind the plate. Time to look outside the organization to find the solution.
You are correct. Melendez should be in LF. And left there.
I don’t understand with all these stats and automated strike zones and such, why MLB doesn’t just revert to having the game done on a computer simulator instead. No need for expensive players and costly injuries.
There are leagues like that. Lol
Well I guarantee you the Royals would suck that way too lmao
Behind and at the plate.
Throwing it to the plate is a problem too.
Using framing metrics for catchers with a pitching staff that can’t command is questionable. Even pop times decay with missed locations on pitches. Those two flaws make defensive judgements less than compelling. Could add “caught stealing”, as much a pitcher rating as for catchers but catchers get the blame.
As a former umpire I have always taken umbrage with with the pitch framing stat. It’s basically a measure of how effectively a catcher fools the ump into calling a ball a strike. Umpires are trained to make the decision before the pitch reaches the catcher’s mitt, and that’s reasonable. To expect a C to “sell” otherwise is not. How many Major League umpires rely on catchers to help them determine if a pitch was a ball or strike? The answer should be none. The stat assumes umpires are relatively ignorant which is just ridiculous.
Framing shouldn’t be as strong of a factor as it is, because you’re right, it’s deception. But ever since they’ve gotten better at measuring it, they’ve been able to show how certain catchers are better at it. And that creates value – value that arbitrators don’t understand which is important (keeps salary low). Cleveland gets a lot of credit for their pitching factory, but the fact is that when they figured out framing stuff they moved Carlos Santana off catcher and went with a string of light hitting defense-first guys. Roberto Perez, Maile, Hedges, even Yan Gomes had strong defensive numbers at one point. That combined with their focus on pitchers with command has helped them steal a ton of strikes. They’re also the winningest team in the AL since 2013.
It has a big effect, and it sucks for the umpires who now get these very public grades about it from fans who get to see the K zone on TV and get to review statcast. There are multiple Twitter accounts that simply exist to grade their zones.
The only solution is robo umps for the K zone.
Pitch framing is pushed here and on other baseball sites because it’s one of the few statistics that can be used to evaluate catchers defensively. Another one – brought up above – is caught stealing.
The problem is that both have little to do with the catcher. (And the major role of a catcher is to call a game and handle a staff – which is subjective so it’s never been able to be measured technically.)
I knew when I was 11 or 12 years old that a base runner steals on the pitcher. Example – the Rangers catchers have about the worst percentage in MLB of throwing out base runners attempting to steal. ALL of their catchers. This is a sign of the pitching staff not holding runners on…..and if one watches their games that’s obvious. That can be a sign of all their pitchers ignoring runners on base, or a philosophy from the pitching coach, manager, and/or FO to concentrate on the batter and not split their time concerning the man on base.
As for pitch framing – umpires have different strike zones depending on how they set-up behind the catcher. It’s always been like that – because umpires are human. While geeks that live off of spreadsheets find this outrageous, batters throughout baseball history at any professional level learn that it’s just another adjustment to make. What upsets batters is not that an umpire misses a call – it’s when he becomes inconsistent. If they know that game that he’s calling low strikes and suddenly he doesn’t, players get upset.
As for the accuracy of the pitch framing statistic – the majority of the time it’s GIGO – Garbage in / Garbage Out. When the umpire is giving a pitch that day, then both catchers are going to be recipients of it regarding the pitch framing stat.
Last thing – few players that make it to the major leagues don’t know their strike zone. They’ve been playing for years. Coaches work with them – at higher levels they see videos of themselves batting. This is why they can and should make adjustments to individual umpires calls.
Salvador Perez is still around right? Is he owed any money?
He is? I thought they traded him years ago when they weren’t contenders for a haul of prospects to maximize their rebuild.
But Perez is a 5x Gold Glover
Rafael Palmerio won a Gold Glove, so Gold Gloves are meaningless to judge someone defensive abilities on.
GGs long have had input from actual players and coaches so I consider them more valid than opinions based on continuously evolving but still flawed metrics as discussed above on catchers.
Instead of writing an entire article on pure speculation maybe there is some actual data to look at. Perez isn’t good. We get it. But is he hurting the pitchers? Greinke despite being older and having lesser players around him posted a much lower era than he did with the Astros who have a catcher I heard worshiped for his value to the pitching staff. Mike Minor better with the Royals than the Red’s. That’s all the work I am doing but Royals fans can look up more.
Just a few examples but well said.
Not many examples to begin with but maybe a Royals fan could come up with more. 2019 I thought is too far back. 2020 might be as well but also only 2 months with distractions. I could only think of 2 starters so looked up their stats. I just went with era. But someone who wanted to write a article could dig deeper. Relievers aren’t as reliable season to season but you could look at them if you choose.
Instead of doing all that you can just pay attention. In Pittsburgh so many pitchers wanted Stallings catching he pretty much became the starter. Cole didn’t want Sanchez in NY. When the personal catcher gets going then you know.
Interesting. Excellent article. This is a question the Royals should be able to answer for themselves pretty easily. Whether or not they are willing to ask themselves the question with that much money on the line is the real key. As I’ve said before, large payrolls don’t ensure the best collection of talent, they allow front offices to make mistakes and keep going. The Royals have a small margin for error.
5x Gold Glove winner. Another example of how ridiculous and meaningless these awards are
…or how ridiculous and meaingless are some defensive metrics.
I just know one thing for certain Perez is most feared hitting catcher in MLB.
Whoever wrote the headline… I don’t want to read your content anymore.
Salvador hasn’t been fully healthy for a few years but if you actually watch him play, hit and catch, you’ll see exactly why he’s such a solid all around player in the MLB.
These so called Defense metrics are not a true or accurate assessment of him or any player in general. The faith of these analytics is very low, they do not reflect the human element, and are secondary and even third or fourth in terms of actual analysis of any individual player and should only be used as such.
Please use these Defensive statistics accordingly. They are NOT a true reflection of any players worth.
The thing about judging a catcher by defensive metrics is it isn’t even remotely possible to bring all the relevant information to the table. The primary job of the catcher is not pitch framing or throwing out runners. Sure, it makes them less valuable but we simply don’t know (I don’t at least) how pitchers feel about him and how well he calls a game. These are some of the most important things in the entire sport so it does make a big difference since we can’t quantify it all.
Pitch framing is a stupid stat. It’s more on the umpire than the C. Give me a C that can call a good game, block balls in the dirt, and can deter the running game with his arm. Who’s calling balls and strikes is outside the teams Control. Amazing how Stallings supposedly forgot how to catch this year. Framing metrics vary too much from year to year to be taken seriously.
I agree with Rishi and stymeedone!
If he could only bat against Minnesota every day, Salvy would be a first ballot Hall of Famer
The Royals leaned heavy on projectable college arms in their mid to late 2010s drafts and it’s going about how we ought to have expected. Often times, a team might lean in that direction when they are firmly in a contention window and want reinforcements with a quick ETA over higher upside plays. Since KC was pretty clearly on the downward slope out of its contention window due to FA departures, it seemed like a curious strategy. The team was no longer a legitimate threat for a deep postseason run and the only question was whether the downward slope would be gentle or steep. The Royals have also had a couple of offseasons where they attempt to pivot towards more regular season wins, if not outright playoff contention, probably a year or two ahead of schedule. It’s odd because another way of looking at this period of time is that the Royals have graduated Witt Jr. and have some potential mid to back end starting pitchers, but it seems like they passed on a number of lower floor / higher upside dart throws at potential franchise altering talent. There was no full rebuild from a team whose market size and budget dictates that full rebuilds are the only path to legitimate contention, and there isn’t a lot of margin for error or a very long window when they finally graduate a bunch of talent all at once.
I get that the news cycle is SLOW right now but Salvador Perez is one of the last things that is wrong with their roster.
They missed on Asa Lacy so far. He was supposed to be a big time pitching prospect. He may yet still come around.
Injuries.
Lmao why would Hunter Dozier be blocking anyone from 1B/DH at-bats? He’s been worth almost -4 bWAR over the last 2 seasons. It’s honestly baffling that he’s even on their roster anymore.
He’s a platoon bat at best.
This “problem” has very little to do with Salvy’s catching and a whole lot to do with the recently fired Cal Eldred being unable to develop a winning gameplan for the major league pitchers.
You only have to look at how many pitchers struggled with the Royals to only have success on other teams (Jason Adam, anyone?) to see the Matheny/Eldred regime had no idea how to maximize the arms they had.
Perez has always been overrated as a defensive catcher . One of his biggest weaknesses is calling pitches . The reason veterans like Greinke or Minor pitched fairly well was because they shook him off and threw the pitch they wanted . Young pitchers tend to just go with what the veteran catcher calls .
His framing has gotten much worse over the years possibly due to concussions from foul tips . If you watch he closes his eyes and ducks his head on most pitches . Hard to frame a pitch when you don’t actually see it all the way in.
I thought it might be best for the team if they traded him this off-season. A lot has been made of him being a team leader but I thought last year there was a clear disconnect between him and the young core players . Frankly I believe his act has gotten a little stale here and it might be in everyone’s best interest if he went elsewhere. I realize he’s still a big fan favorite but sometimes you have to do what’s best for the team.
The roster is definitely a bit of a mess with vinnie, pratto, perez and melendez all really being best suited at 1B or DH.
Of course Melendez and salvy can catch and pratto can play the OF and that is nice but really each of them is suited better for 1b or DH and a negative in the field.
Having a negative player in the lineup is ok but too many of them is not good.
That is pretty similar to the white sox roster construction last year who also had too many dh types (sheets, abreu, vaughn, eloy, burger).
Pratto has about average or even slightly above average sprint speed so he could maybe learn to play an average corner OF but his arm strength is pretty fringy so that likely is lf only.
I think the royals need to move on from someone. Ideally would be salvy due to his age but likely that contract will be tough to move and if you can you get nothing back.
That leaves vinnie, pratto and melendez to be moved. I would keep vinnie, he is old for a prospect which isn’t always a great sign for a 1B breakout but then again without the covid season he could have been up earlier than that plus his plate discipline metrics are Amazing, I really believe he could be a poor man’s (but still pretty good) paul Goldschmidt.
That leaves one of pratto and melendez to be moved. I would prefer moving pratto as I think his k rate is a risk but Melendez could net a better return package.
A lot depends on whether you believe he can be a credible catcher or if he is just an emergency Catcher/DH who can occasionally catch but is better at DH. If the former is true I’d keep him but if the latter is true I might move on.
Losing him would hurt but the roster has other holes to be stuffed (especially SP) and right now the roster construction is not ideal, especially since the pitchers need all the defensive help they can get.
Regarding the draft, trades and player development, we need to factor in a significant degree of…LUCK
It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.
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Wait, wasn’t Eckersley saying how great the KC rebuild was going, and how PT was basically junk?
It’s fine to knock Salvador Perez on the metrics, but the intangible staff management he provides really does need to be accounted for. It’s not his issue the Royals haven’t really been able to develop system arms. They haven’t forever.
Dock_Elvis;
You should post more often.
It’s good for all readers of this comment section.
The Royals need Max Stassi!
They just got rid of the Moore Dayton approach. The last thing they need is Max Stasi. And definitely not Les Norman. It’s too late for Min Minoso.
I mean no, they don’t have a real problem, and this isn’t based on any rumors. So why is it on MLBTR?
Winners are built on the backs of good pitching. Look at the Royals’ ‘15 roster. A good rotation with an excellent bullpen with timely hitting (Esky batting lead-off?!?). If the Royals can score 4-6 runs, they just need to find the right (correct) arms.
I mean shouldn’t we have expected this after salvy caught 9,000 games in 5 seasons. We got a World Series but Ned Yost def cut some years off Salvys career having him catch that many games
As a Royals fan who watches pretty much every game religiously I’ll say this
The Royals ruined Salvy under Ned Yost allowing him to play way too many games every year
Right now the stats have proven that he’s a better hitter as a DH not behind the plate.
So for me I’d make Salvy the DH and MJ the everyday catcher then Salvy can be the backup catcher then trade Vinnie Pas for some pitching help and allow Pratto to develop and play 1B as I believe Pratto will be a multi time gold glove at 1B his bat will improve
I love Salvy but this is a business and I’ve learned not to get attached so the Royals if smart should consider trading Salvy as they would and could get a king’s ransom in return for the guy since hes still considered one of the best catchers in the game. He’s on the decline behind the plate imo but just my opinion