Here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball throughout the day today as the New Year approaches:
1. After extending Murphy, have the Braves maxed out their payroll?
The Braves agreed to a six-year, $73MM extension that could be taken to seven-years, $88MM if the Braves exercise a 2029 club option, locking one of the best catchers in the game up under team control for the rest of the 2020s. In inking Murphy to this deal, however, Atlanta finds itself projected to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in club history, per RosterResource. This isn’t entirely unexpected, as the Braves were reportedly considering exceeding the luxury tax threshold earlier this month, while ownership had previously mentioned fielding a top five payroll in the sport. RosterResource has Atlanta clocking in at the fifth-highest luxury tax figure in the majors after the Murphy deal, meaning they’ve already hit the point ownership has indicated to be comfortable spending by one metric, even though their actual projected 2023 payroll of $198MM ranks eighth in the majors. Should this be the upper limit of what the club’s budget will allow, that will leave Atlanta heading into the 2023 season with Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, and Jordan Luplow sharing time between left field and the DH slot (perhaps with Travis d’Arnaud chipping in at DH as well). It’s hardly a group that inspires confidence, though, so it’s possible that the Braves would explore the trade market for ways to shed salary and open up payroll space for another bat in the left field mix if they are unwilling to go farther beyond the luxury tax threshold.
2. The Starting Pitching Market Continues To Thin
The already-thin free agent market for starting pitchers just lost its top remaining option last night, as the Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year deal worth $34MM in a move that likely pushes Jake Odorizzi to the bullpen when the rotation is fully healthy. Eovaldi wasn’t the only pitcher to sign yesterday, either, as Rich Hill will join the twelfth club of his career in 2023 after signing a one-year, $8MM deal with the Pirates. As many as half a dozen teams out there have been connected to the starting pitching market this offseason are likely still looking for an arm, whether they’re clear contenders looking for depth such as the Dodgers, Padres, and Cardinals or they’re a team still looking to fill out the rotation such as the Orioles, Diamondbacks, or Angels. With so many teams still in the hunt for a starter and both Eovaldi and Hill landed with teams who weren’t seen as locks to add another pitcher to their rotations, that could open the door for teams with starting depth to take advantage on the trade market. This includes the Marlins, as we discussed in yesterday’s Opener, but other teams could jump in to capitalize on the thin market as well. The Mariners, for example, have been rumored to be willing to deal either Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen to improve the club in other areas, while the Twins and Guardians are among other teams that could have enough starting depth that they could feel comfortable dealing a starter. Still, the free agent market isn’t completely barren yet, as players such as Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, and Zack Greinke remain unsigned.
3. MLBTR Chat Today
Have the recent moves this offseason left you with questions burning in your mind? Are you looking for answers about your favorite team’s direction? Or perhaps you simply missed the holiday chat hosted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk on Christmas Eve? Whatever the case may be, you can tune in at 3PM CST today, when MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a live chat and fielding questions from readers. You can submit a question in advance using this link, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins if you would like to check back and participate in real time.
Braves are better than the Mets.
Change my mind.
They will be long term. The Mets are old and in win now mode while the braves are seeing success for many other years.
That’s not a fair assessment. They have some expensive, older pieces for win-now but there’s also a strong, younger core forming. Cohen hasn’t been shy about saying he’s using money while building up the farm system after years of Wilpon management.
Problem is steve cohen can erase his mistakes. A bottomless pit of money can do that. No doubt in my mind the Mets are going after Shohei Ohtani. Until the next cba this version of the Mets is mistake proof. Im happy for Mets fans but its really bad for the long term health of the sport. The NFL is king because of parity. MLB has no parity.
The NFL is king because the game is faster paced, exciting and violent. Tom Brady racking up multiple titles doesn’t show parity.
“The NFL is king because of parity. MLB has no parity.”
I’m sorry, but this is, by every objective assessment and evaluation, false. The only reason the NFL has even had the {appearance} of parity is because half the league makes the playoffs. If not for the watered-down .500 playoff model, they wouldn’t even be able to maintain their faux appearance.
What has the spending of the Mets gained then so far other than news?
The Bengals from Cincinnatti being contenders does. Jacksonville possibly winning their division this year does. Detroit fighting for a playoff spot does. Miami and Cleveland being relevant does. I admit its a more entertaining game but the fact that small markets have just as good a chance at success as large ones is what separates the sports leagues.
Okay, so to clarify, your sole basis for parity is citing three teams that made the playoffs, one of which has the chance to win its division?
How about the 2015 Royals?, 2016 Cubs, the 2020 Rays, 2019 Nationals, the 2016 Indians, the 2012 Cardinals, the 2011 Rangers?
Those aren’t just playoff-eligible teams, like the Pirates and Reds in 2013, or the orioles in 2016; those are small-markets that made it to the final championship series.
As I said, parity is an illusion in the NFL because half the league makes it.
The small market Cubs?
Yeah I have to agree with you guys regarding NFL parity. I personally believe baseball has way more parity than the NFL. That being said, I do believe both leagues have more parity than the NBA lol. It’s a league where one superstar can make the difference, and when superstars team up it pretty much eliminates 90% of the league lol. NHL has the most parity of the four major sports in my opinion, but yeah NFL parity is skewed by the amount of teams making the playoffs.
Astros, baseball has lots of parity. Many different champions in the last 20 years.
NFL is king because of gambling, plain and simple.
Being a national sport, revenue sharing and having a salary cap sets the NFL a part from MLB. Money spent on gambling is why they can get so much from TV and streaming.
Fans of large market teams have a pathological inability to understand the difference between equality of outcome and equality of opportunity.
The Packers have as much chance to win as the Giants.
Only a fool or a serial liar would try to claim the Brewers have as much chance to win as the Yankees.
That the Yankees blow it a lot is not proof of parity.
You’re right, Aaron, I should’ve excepted the Cubs from small-market terminology, but they’re still applicable for the “parity” argument as they were not perennial winners.
I worded that part poorly.
66: If that’s true, then why doesn’t it ever happen? Or why doesn’t it happen nearly as often as it does in MLB. The results prove your argument false. Plus, the Packers are not a relevant example in NFL. They are one of the oldest and most established franchises in the NFL. Try…. Tampa, or the Jaguars.
Based on your assessment, you’re saying you’d rather have the perception of “an equal chance” than actually win anything and have more established dynasties, which is completely counterintuitive to your entire argument.
@yc cards were the wc in 11 and won the ws then lost to sf in 12
There is more parity of opportunity the NFL for the smaller markets. The hard cap and the huge $$ that flow into the game make it that way. Baseball certainly has a far higher disparity between small to mid-market teams, large market teams and then the uber-market elite spenders.
The very nature of the game of baseball, however, allows for more parity. In essence, one can come close to guaranteeing a playoff spot by spending the bucks, but winning in the playoffs is quite another thing. Truly elite teams in the NFL and NBA can win 80 or even 90% of their games through sheer dominance, while baseball the game is not built that way. Elite teams will be closer to 65% of the time, and any team can get hot.
The NFL – you can dominate with two things…great system / coaching and great QB (of course surrounded by a well-built team). The NBA…yeah, I hate the superteam mode and am thankful that it is seemingly going away. But great coaching and a few superstars can dominate for years.
If baseball were still a “win and you’re in” playoff format where you win the pennant and head to the Series, then the lack of parity would be far greater. No more pre-free agency Yankees dynasties where they can use other squads as their farm teams. Under this playoff format however and the nature of the game itself it is hard to see one team winning the Series on a consistent basis anymore. The Yanks and Mets and Dodgers and such can make the playoffs year after year using financial muscle, but we will continue to see playoff upsets time after time…and that helps to take some of the sting out of the inequities. Some….not all.
If I were in a truly small-market area, I would be interested to see even more attempts to balance some of this out.
The NFL is king because it’s easy 16 game seasons–which is easy to digest for causal fans, and easier for ‘new’ fans to follow.
It’s sports lite. Part time sport. And that’s the Average American sports fan. Thus, the most $$.
Folks around here are diehards.
The parity in the NFL is created by who gets lucky or has great scouts and drafts the right QB.
“Fans of large market teams have a pathological inability to understand the difference between equality of outcome and equality of opportunity.”
The very nature of the game of baseball, however, allows for more parity.
=======================
Yup. It is impossible to compare the two sports. A bad BB team, with two good pitchers, can easily beat a powerhouse with only one good pitcher in a short series.
I’ve seen check-swing doubles bring in three runs. I’ve seen bases-loaded opportunities lost because of a line-drive right at the 1B. I’ve seen Taylor-made DPs become singles because a grounder up the middle hits the pitching mound. You don’t get that in other sports.
The NFL is king because it’s easy 16 game seasons
==========================
A lot of that also relates to it being a mostly Sunday-only game. A lot of people will block out that 1-7 time frame.
The NFL is king because it’s easy to gamble on.
Football is a simpler game, it’s why it’s more popular in todays no attention span society. Baseball is a chess game, requires more patience, knowledge and strategy.
Will you accept bribes?
And Philly is better than both
LOL
With Eury Perez, and a fully healthy and focused Sixto Sanchez, the Marlins could have the best rotation in the NL East 1-5, and that’s saying something,
Alcantara
Perez
Luzardo
Cabrera
Sanchez
Big ifs but not out of the realm of possibilities.
With their SP depth, they could add an impact bat or two, if JJ Bleday, Nick Fortes, and Jon Berti put it together, Avisail and Jorge Soler have big years, Chisholm stays healthy, and they sign a 1B – they could be there in October.
bwmiller: Duplicate comment detected. You said that already!… in 2022, 2021, 2020…
I kid, but you must be new here.
I admire your optimism. The Marlins have put themselves in a great position should a new wealthy owner take over who is willing to double or triple their payroll. If Cohen had bought the Marlins, he could have created a super team and stayed under the luxury tax, the existing starting pitching is that good and the stadium makes it better. But as is, well, I will only say that I admire your optimism.
Mets aren’t really that good to be fair.. Verlander is old and Max is no longer dominant.. they really don’t have any Mega Stars ..just a handful of All Stars.. Edwin Diaz is about the only thing that would be a Huge upgrade for Braves ..(oh and Lindor by default since Braves have no one at SS)… Mets are too Vanilla for me to be elite… no Betts type level player..no Tatis.
.no Machado.. Pete is ok as is Lindor. Everyone else is pretty vanilla to be fair..Biggest payroll ..maybe 7th best team in baseball.. meh
The Mets have a few really good prospects in Alvarez, Baty and Mauricio,
and I think the young CF Alex Ramirez is going to be an all star, I just have a feeling about it, that he will be a great player.
But the Mets infield is jammed up for the next decade.
Alvarez and Baty are solid. Keep them. Not sure about Mauricio. I’ve seen him play. Something off there. Ugh. Big loopy swing plus too much extra curricular actions when making plays in the field for my liking. He’s been blocked from moving up for a couple of years now. If truly promising, why hasn’t another team traded for him already? Mets stuck with him?
Highest_IQ:
Only you can change your own mind… to be clear, that’s the same mind that you just used to comment first about the Mets on a Braves article. It begs the question, have you already answered your own question?
On paper the Braves look impressive, however, one caveat that keeps things in perspective though is the inevitability of injuries. The Braves have made (what seems) like an all or nothing gamble in their core players.
I can’t blame them for buying into such a excellent collection of young talent. The real test will come if they have a season with a rash of injuries. Will they have the financial flexibility to trade for that veteran rental player that could be the difference?
All farm systems have ups and downs, and the Braves aren’t immune to that. They’ve had an exceptional run of producing homegrown talent over the last 5 to 7 years. Logic dictates it won’t continue forever. What is important is to keep enough talent to fill in the holes when those injuries do happen. Right now, only time will tell.
Braves did that by signing Murphy since Travis is getting over the hill. You’re thinking of the Mets – Wilson, isringinghausen. Big starting 5 on IL,
I hate this approach. Someone makes a simplistic statement with no supporting data but then expects any responses to give detailed reasoning why the first statement is incorrect.
IQ, what’s your evidence the Braves are better than the Mets?
One thing routinely missed is that the Mets got better than expected performance from a majority of their key players in 2022, so they can both expect performance regression in 2023, AND age-based regression from the oldest team in baseball.
Aging alone was going to ding them about 5 wins in 2023, so bringing back the same team in 2023 that they had in 2022 would be bringing back a worse team.
As for adding Correa, if they do, he doesn’t add to their projection compared with 2022, he only erases their age-related regression.
Highest
1. Mets have a better team but also carry a greater risk of injury due to the age and health of Scherzer and Verlander
2. If for a large chunk of the season, the Mets lose just one of Scherzer and Verlander, Mets could finish in third (but still make the post-season), but this is no different than when they had Jacob instead of Justin. The difference is that Phillies will win more regular season games in 2023 than 2022
3. Correa as a $315 million third baseman is really bad value, but the extra couple wins he would give Mets in 2023 and 2024 could easily be difference-makers in divisional race.
Five really strong teams for 2023 race are Mets, Atlanta, Phillies, Padres and Dodgers. Sixth team is likely Cardinals, but Brewers and Cubs can win 86-87 if Cardinals falter. Watch Swanson, Mertz, Mitchell and Frelick to see who joins the five super teams. AL has Asterisks, Yankees and Blue Jays. Mariners and Rangers as wild cards, and Guardians likely edging White Sox for last slot.
Really hope Scott Harris is waiting for the pitching market to thin out to trade some arms for a 3B and an OF.
The pitching market is already thin…Please see re-read what the author wrote. Happy New Year.
“2. The Starting Pitching Market Continues To Thin
The already-thin free agent market for starting pitchers just lost its top remaining option last night, as the Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year deal worth $34MM in a move that likely pushes Jake Odorizzi to the bullpen when the rotation is fully healthy. Eovaldi wasn’t the only pitcher to sign yesterday, either, as Rich Hill will join the twelfth club of his career in 2023 after signing a one-year, $8MM deal with the Pirates. As many as half a dozen teams out there have been connected to the starting pitching market this offseason are likely still looking for an arm, whether they’re clear contenders looking for depth such as the Dodgers, Padres, and Cardinals or they’re a team still looking to fill out the rotation such as the Orioles, Diamondbacks, or Angels. With so many teams still in the hunt for a starter and both Eovaldi and Hill landed with teams who weren’t seen as locks to add another pitcher to their rotations, that could open the door for teams with starting depth to take advantage on the trade market. This includes the Marlins, as we discussed in yesterday’s Opener, but other teams could jump in to capitalize on the thin market as well. The Mariners, for example, have been rumored to be willing to deal either Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen to improve the club in other areas, while the Twins and Guardians are among other teams that could have enough starting depth that they could feel comfortable dealing a starter. Still, the free agent market isn’t completely barren yet, as players such as Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, and Zack Greinke remain unsigned.”
Raise the luxury tax or just get rid of it. It’s an inconvenience for the wealthy teams and unjustified for the rest.
It does seem like more teams are either exceeding it or approaching it and using it as an excuse not to get better.
^^ ..and we now have “2022 Stupid Comment of the Year”
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There is still time. You can keep your 9 year winning streak alive.
Nah, like it or not, I think it’s here to stay. Outside of it, I think in December 2026 we are headed to a pre-tax cap of $400M and a floor of $100M. The teams that don’t reach the floor will have to spread the difference among their current 40-man rosters (+ players on 60-day IL).
Can you imagine someone forcing you to spend your money- that isn’t government tax related? Rather, merely on non life threatening entertainment.. Mind you these same athletes are in the game- playing. No one is sitting out due to salary discrepancies- maybe ever in the history of the game?? That’s where we are as a society. Spend your money on sports.. or, else…
@Newman
Then let’s take away their antitrust status and actually let the free market decide.
I’m not for a floor or a cap but I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a floor if there’s a cap. Especially since they own part of a legal monopoly and the wealthy teams are forced to share revenue with the poorer (term used loosely) teams.
When you go around forcing teams to pay are you going to force fa players to sign too? Trea Turner and Judge should be forced to play in SD? There is a floor- league minimum $700k. Don’t want to play a game for 10x the average American household income? okay.. that’s your right, and that’s their right. Free market takes care of the rest.
You’re comparing what equates to a minimum wage to what the corporation can spend on labor over all. It’s not exactly apples to apples but not completely unrelated.
My point is simple, if teams are giving other teams their revenue, it’s reasonable to request they spend it to put a competitive product on the field and not line the ownership’s pockets. It is called the Competitive Balance Threshold after all. The entire point is to balance the completion to create a more entertaining product. The logic being that a more the entertaining product will create more revenue for everyone in the long run.
Like I said, I’m for neither. But if I were owner of a large market team I’d be pretty upset that MLB was requiring me to put money in another owner’s pocket without seemingly any oversight on what happens to it. If I owned a small market team, I have no real incentive to succeed if I’m getting handed free money whether I try or not.
I completely disagree, but I respect your opinion.
Newman & Churchill —
Enjoyed exchange, thanks.
Churchill–
Are stadium improvements, FO hires, team staff hiring, Orginzational facilities in/outside the country (Spring training facilities, Intl Camps) Not something shared money be spent on? All those things help the “value” of the franchises? (Which Owners and the League would like…fans maybe not)
Really slippery slope “ruling” how others spend money. Dedicated actors will subvert “rules” through all sorts of means. The League had a hard enough time stopping “cheating” (in a variety of forms) for the past couple decade.
I’ll concede that fan experience/stadium improvements can be a valid use of that money. I’ll point to Oakland as a team that appears to be egregiously pocketing the money they receive. Others are probably in a similar boat (minimal reinvestment in the overall product) but without the numbers being exposed, we’re only guessing.
There have been reports that the Braves might be listening to offers for southpaw ace Max Fried who has two more years of fairly expensive arbitration eligibility remaining before potentially hitting free agency in 2025. This might be the time for them to maximize his value in a trade while upgrading their LF/DH situation. They might also consider attaching one of their sunk contracts to Fried in such a deal.
I don’t see this happening unless its his last year of being controlled and has no intentions resigning with Atlanta.
I agree Jock—and probably not “reports” but unsubstantiated rumors that they are listening to offers. They may be “hearing” offers for Fried but unless it’s something utterly ridiculous I doubt that they are listening on the their best pitcher with the team they have now.
Sometimes “where there’s smoke there’s fire”. Occasionally the opposite occurs: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/athletics-moving-closer-to-sean-murphy-trade-braves-considered-the-frontrunners.html LOL
You also have to consider what is “listening” when it comes to trade rumors. Listening might’ve been hearing a pitch, then immediately shooting it down. It makes very little sense to trade Max though for a team with Championship aspirations. The other team would have to offer something completely insane.
He’s not expensive at all for an ace pitcher.
There’s a distinction between calling a pitcher expensive and what I actually wrote in my comment…”ace Max Fried who has two more years of fairly expensive arbitration eligibility remaining before potentially hitting free agency in 2025.”
To elaborate on the arbitration angle, this site has projected Fried to garner $12.2MM in 2023 (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/mlb-projected-arbitration-salaries-2023.html) after he earned $6.85MM last year in his first season of eligibility. Another comparable performance in 2023 might see him in line for a 2024 salary approaching $20MM. Clearly those salaries are a bargain for a certified ace but they are numbers that could cause some issues with the Braves and their potential CBT obligations over the next two seasons.
Even if he gets 20m, they could decline Morton’s 20m option and it’s basically a wash if tax issues are a concern for the club. I don’t think they’re going to be that fearful of the tax, though.
Soroka & Anderson prove to shape up I can see Fried traded at the deadline to get some prospects and maybe fill a need at the deadline.
AA was known to do some crazy out of nowhere trades & with all these extensions being thrown out and Fried not signing one. Add in that he has made it known he grew up a Dodger fan & is a West Coast kid I think the deadline as long as he is healthy I feel his value would be at its peak.
I could easily envision TOR’s Max Fried, Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty pitching for the Dodgers within the next two years. Fried can become a free agent in 2025. Giolito and Flaherty are each entering their walk seasons this year. The trio famously were teammates at Harvard-Westlake HS in Los Angeles back in 2012 and have remained friends to this day. They were also coached by Ethan Katz who is the White Sox pitching coach and currently has Giolito under his tutelage.
Perhaps Katz can head out west to coach them all again as a unit in the not too distant future. Better yet for me as a White Sox fan, perhaps they can all reunite on the southside of Chicago. That prospect is far less likely short of an imminent ownership change with the White Sox. I am praying to the baseball gods as I post. lol
Yankees on the in s deep pennant race I think would be more inclined to do a Fried for Dominguez & Peraza deal than they would now. Maybe throw in an Ozuna & Hicks to go with it
The luxury tax could be greatly improved by going year to year for contracts instead of averaging the contract out. For example, a 6 year contract for $60 million averages to 10 million per year. However, if it’s paid out at $5 million, $6 million, $8 million, $11 million, $14 million and $16 million; the first 3 years should count less and the last 3 years more towards the luxury tax. I have never liked the way they do it by taking the average yearly salary instead of each individual year.
Well, if the Dodgers are looking for pitching depth, they can ignore any potential backlash and hold onto Bauer since they’re going to have to pay him anyway.
The fact Bauer wasn’t cut like 10 seconds after he was able too..says a lot about LAD.. absolutely trash franchise now.. nowhere near the rivals I respected in the 70’s thru 90’s
This is the all free agent team. Listed here are all of the free agents previewed by MLBTR’s top 50 list (most were honorable mentions) that are left in free agency, plus 2 outfielders (Pillar/Pollock) to fill out a team. Numbers in parentheses are where they were ranked, if ranked.
c: Sanchez
1B: Belt
2B: Segura (40)
SS: Andrus
3B: Longoria
LF: Profar (33)
CF: Pillar
RF: Pollock
DH: Mancini
SP: Kluber (48), Wacha (41), Cueto, Fujinama, Grienke, Fulmer, Moore
RP: Chafin (39), Kimbrel Sanchez
I’m actually surprised at how many decent starters are left. This wasn’t meant to be a depth chart, it’s just that there’s literally just one person left from the preview at every position (except CF/RF, those two were added by me).
1. Kimbrel signed a few days ago with the Phillies
2. Pollock should be in center, find another DH/Corner Outfielder for Mancini to split time with
3.Fujinama and Moore aren’t starters and Fulmer is a stretch
I believe a decent offer with good prospects could land Giolito from the White Sox.
I think a good offer with decent prospects could land Giolito—-I don’t think that the offer would have to be really “good” prospects. There is about as much volatility in Giolito as there are in prospects.
I doubt the White Sox would do it, though. Even if you think he’s just going to replicate last year, that’s 5th starter level. Not that easy to find a 5th starter for less than what he’s making unless he’s a total reclamation project. So the Sox would effectively be spending more money and likely getting worse (I’m assuming something of a bounceback in his contract year) in order to take on more risk. If they had a few good pitching prospects knocking on the door, maybe, but even then I doubt it because the FO has deluded itself into thinking this is a championship roster as currently constructed. With the thin farm, no chance.
Now, if the Sox are down a dozen games by the trade deadline, then I think it’s entirely plausible Giolito is traded.
Yes. I don’t see the White Sox trading Lucas Giolito, at least for prospects. They are still very much in their contention window. They also reside in MLB’s weakest division and will likely have to win it to reach the playoffs with stronger wild card contenders in the East and West.
I can envision the possibility of a Giolito deal coming together this offseason if it involves stabilizing a greater area of need on the roster. That could be at 2B, at catcher with an eye beyond 2023 or perhaps the addition of one more impactful left-handed bat. A Giolito trade could potentially solve more than one of their needs but would also leave the rotation thin again without a suitable replacement.
A Giolito trade is far more likely not to happen than to transpire. That said, GM Rick Hahn kept promising White Sox fans that trades were more likely to bring needed additions than free agency this offseason. Perhaps that changed with the signing of FA’s Mike Clevinger and Andrew Benintendi. I wouldn’t discount a trade materializing before opening day but if one occurs it’s more likely to involve someone other than Giolito.
“Atlanta finds itself projected to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in club history,”
ok, as the payroll stands, what would the penalty be now?