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2023 Amateur Draft

Reds Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Rhett Lowder

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The Reds have agreed to terms with first round pick Rhett Lowder, tweets Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll receive a $5.7MM bonus that comes in below the $6.28MM slot value of the seventh overall selection.

Lowder becomes the first top ten pick of the class to agree to terms. The Wake Forest right-hander appeared among the back half of the top 10 on pre-draft rankings from MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law and Baseball America. Evaluators credit him with a plus changeup, solid breaking ball and low-mid 90s velocity on a sinking fastball.

The 6’2″ hurler was the ACC’s pitcher of the year in each of his final two seasons for the Demon Deacons. He posted a 1.87 ERA over 120 1/3 innings as a junior. Lowder fanned 30.4% of opponents against just a 5.1% walk percentage.

Cincinnati used their first two choices on college pitchers, selecting LSU’s Ty Floyd with their Competitive Balance Round A selection. Second rounder Sammy Stafura and fourth round pick Cole Shoenwetter both appeared higher on most pre-draft rankings than their actual selection placements would suggest. Cincinnati could reallocate some of their savings on Lowder to overslot deals for those prep players.

Cubs Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Matt Shaw

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with first round selection Matt Shaw, as first reported by Keith Law of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be paid the full $4.85MM slot value associated with the 13th overall selection.

Shaw, a University of Maryland product, was generally perceived as a mid-first round talent. He ranked 7th on Law’s pre-draft rankings, 13th at Baseball America and 16th for MLB Pipeline. Evaluators praise his hit tool and solid power potential. The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, the righty-swinging middle infielder hit .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts during his final season in College Park.

While Shaw played shortstop for the Terps, reports suggest he’s likely to move to second base in pro ball because of a below-average arm. He’s expected to stick at the keystone and could potentially move quickly through the minors as an advanced college bat.

The Cubs have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner penciled into the middle infield for the next few seasons. If Shaw hits well enough in the minors to push to the MLB level within the next year or two, the extra depth would be a nice “problem” to have.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/13/23

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The Angels and Braves each agreed to terms with their first-round draftees this afternoon. One other notable signing from this afternoon:

  • The Rays agreed to terms with Competitive Balance Round A selection Adrian Santana, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). The 31st overall pick receives a $2.00295MM bonus that checks in a bit shy of the pick’s $2.67MM slot value. A high school infielder from South Florida, Santana ranked 38th on the pre-draft rankings at MLB Pipeline and 39th at BA. The switch-hitter draws praise for his speed and advanced defense at shortstop but comes with questions about the offensive impact present in a 5’11” frame. He had been committed to the University of Miami.

Braves Sign First Six Picks From 2023 Draft

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The Braves have signed the first six players they selected in the 2023 draft, which took place earlier this week. Right-handers Hurston Waldrep, Drue Hackenberg, Cade Kuehler and Garrett Baumann have put pen to paper, as has shortstop Sabin Ceballos and outfielder Isaiah Drake. Details from Twitter courtesy of Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline and Carlos Collazo of Baseball America. Additionally, the club inked seventh-rounder Justin Long, per Collazo.

Waldrep, 21, was selected 24th overall out of the University of Florida. He will receive a signing bonus of $2,997,500, slightly under that pick’s slot value of $3,270,500. He made 19 starts for the Gators this year, tossing 101 2/3 innings with a 4.16 ERA. He struck out 34.7% of the batters he faced while walking 12.7%.

He was ranked the #14 player in the draft by both ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic, #18 by Baseball America, #19 by MLB.com, with FanGraphs having him the highest at #6. The reports on him all reflect the stat line, in that they point to his excellent strikeout stuff but lack of command. His splitter is considered his best put-away pitch, often thrown below the zone for either a whiff or a ball.

Hackenberg, 21, was the club’s second-round pick, taken out of Virginia Tech. He’ll get a $2MM bonus, significantly above his $1,369,300 slot value. The righty made 15 starts for Virginia Tech this year, posting a 5.80 ERA in 85 1/3 innings, striking out 24.8% of hitters while walking just 6.5%.

Kuehler, 21, was selected 70th overall, using the compensatory draft pick that Atlanta received when Dansby Swanson rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Cubs. He gets a $1.045MM bonus, just under the $1.0475MM slot. He made 13 starts for Campbell University this year with a 2.71 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate.

Ceballos, 20, was taken in the third round out of the University of Oregon. He receives a signing bonus of $597.5K compared to a slot of $714.1K. He hit .333/.426/.643 in his 256 plate appearances this year. Baumann, 18, was selected in the fourth round out of a Florida high school. He’ll get $747.5K for his bonus, a bit above the $521.8K slot. Drake, 17, was selected in the fifth round out of North Atlanta High School. He’ll get the same $747.5K bonus as Baumann, but against a less slot of $367.5K.

Long, 21, was taken in the seventh round out of Rice University. He gets a bonus of $172.5K, beneath his $229.4K slot value. He tossed 45 2/3 innings this year with a 4.93 ERA, 18.9% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate.

Angels Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Nolan Schanuel

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The Angels have agreed to terms with first-round pick Nolan Schanuel, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America. He’ll receive the full slot value of $5.253MM for his No. 11 overall selection.

Schanuel, 21, is a left-handed-hitting first baseman whose bat is his carrying card. In three years at Florida Atlantic University, the 6’4″ infielder turned in a .386/.516/.698 batting line — highlighted by a comical .447/.615/.868 slash with 19 homers, 18 doubles and four triples in 289 plate appearances this past season. He draws particularly strong reviews for his preternatural contact abilities and plate discipline; Schanuel struck out in just seven percent of his plate appearances in his three years at FAU while walking at a 17% clip. In his final season of college ball, he posted a ridiculous 71-to-14 walk-to-strikeout ratio — a mammoth 24.6% walk rate against just a 4.8% strikeout rate.

Despite the tantalizing offensive profile, Schanuel was ranked a bit lower than his ultimate selection on most prospect lists heading into the draft. Keith Law of The Athletic listed him as the draft’s No. 18 prospect, while Schanuel sat 22nd at ESPN, 26th at MLB.com, 30th at Baseball America and 33rd at FanGraphs. That’s largely due to defensive limitations — Schanuel is a pure first baseman with an outside chance handling some corner outfield work — and a hit-over-power profile. Some scouting reports give Schanuel the chance to eventually develop plus power, but most peg him for average or above-average pop (50- to 55-grade on the 20-80 scale). Presumably, based on this selection, the Angels are in the camp that believes he can reach that plus power ceiling.

Schanuel’s advanced approach gives him the potential to sprint through the minor leagues and contribute at the MLB level in short order. Kiley McDaniel’s scouting report at ESPN suggests he could be in the Majors within a year’s time — a much swifter path to the big leagues than most prospects in a given draft class.

The Angels have had uncertainty at first base in each of the past two seasons, as Jared Walsh has been unable to replicate his 2021 breakout (due largely to health troubles). Schanuel gives them a potentially fast-tracked prospect who can provide sound defense and at least average power and speed — all while excelling at putting the ball in play and getting on base.

2023 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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The 2023 MLB Draft begins tonight, and this post will be constantly updated with each team’s selections from the first round.  The Mets and Dodgers are the only teams without a first-rounder, as their top picks were each dropped 10 places overall as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2022.  As a result, the Mets won’t have a selection until the 32nd overall pick, and the Dodgers won’t select until 36th overall.

The first-round selections….

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
  2. Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
  3. Detroit Tigers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
  4. Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University Of Florida
  5. Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
  6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon University
  7. Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
  8. Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High School (TX)
  9. Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, University of Tennessee
  10. Miami Marlins: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High School (OR)
  11. Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic
  12. Arizona Diamondbacks: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
  13. Chicago Cubs: Matthew Shaw, SS, University of Maryland
  14. Boston Red Sox: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia
  15. Chicago White Sox: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University Of Mississippi
  16. San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison High School (VA)
  17. Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
  18. Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
  19. Tampa Bay Rays: Brayden Taylor, 3B/SS, TCU
  20. Toronto Blue Jays: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
  21. St. Louis Cardinals: Chase Davis, OF, University of Arizona
  22. Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn High School (OH)
  23. Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach High School (CA)
  24. Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, University of Florida
  25. San Diego Padres: Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
  26. New York Yankees: George Lombard Jr., 3B/SS, Gulliver Prep High School (FL)
  27. Philadelphia Phillies: Aidan Miller, 3B/SS, Mitchell High School (FL)
  28. Houston Astros: Brice Matthews, SS, University of Nebraska

This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days.  Rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, rounds 3-10 on Monday, and the draft’s first 70 picks will be made tonight.  Those 70 picks cover the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick.  The Mariners received the PPI selection at 29th overall, since Julio Rodriguez filled the criteria of winning the Rookie Of The Year Award, being part of his team’s active roster from Opening Day onwards, and he ranked as a preseason top-100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.

The PPI is one of several new wrinkles to the 2023 draft, as this is the first draft held under the new guidelines established by the 2022-2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  The process for determining the 14 teams in the Competitive Balance Rounds was also tweaked, though the teams (all in the bottom 10 in market size or revenue size) will still have their picks split up over two mini-rounds sandwiched around the second round.  The most obvious change came at the very top of the board, as this was the first year of the lottery process to determine the draft’s top six picks.  This is how the Pirates ended up with the first overall selection, even though the Nationals and A’s each had worse records in 2022.

This year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden in years, so several potential franchise-changing players could be starting their pro careers tonight.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

Pirates Win #1 Overall Pick In Draft Lottery

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The inaugural MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this evening. The Pirates were awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Nationals and Tigers. Here is the first round:

  1. Pirates
  2. Nationals
  3. Tigers
  4. Rangers
  5. Twins
  6. A’s
  7. Reds
  8. Royals
  9. Rockies
  10. Marlins
  11. Angels
  12. Diamondbacks
  13. Cubs
  14. Red Sox
  15. White Sox
  16. Giants
  17. Orioles
  18. Brewers
  19. Rays
  20. Blue Jays
  21. Cardinals
  22. Mets
  23. Mariners
  24. Guardians
  25. Braves
  26. Dodgers
  27. Padres
  28. Yankees
  29. Phillies
  30. Astros

In previous years, the draft order was fixed in inverse order of the regular season standings. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection. All 18 non-playoff teams were technically in the running for any of the top six picks, albeit with increasingly diminished odds for the clubs with better records. The 12 playoff teams were ordered depending on their postseason finishes, with a team’s revenue sharing status separating teams that were eliminated in the same round.

This year, the Nationals, A’s and Pirates all had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each club had a 16.5% probability. The Reds (13.25%) and Royals (10%) rounded out the top five as the only other teams with a 10% chance or better of securing the top pick. Other than Pittsburgh, the Twins were the biggest beneficiary of the new system, drawing into the top five despite having the 13th-worst record. The Royals fell outside the top ten despite finishing fifth from the bottom in the standings, while Oakland falls from second-worst to sixth.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

While the draft order is official, there’s obviously plenty of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its preliminary top 100 draft prospects in October, slotting LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There’ll be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit kicks back off next spring.

2023 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The 2022 regular season is officially wrapped up, with the Mets beating the Nationals in the second game of a doubleheader to close out the year. 18 teams now formally turn their attention to 2023, while the postseason will get underway on Friday.

With the standings set for the league’s non-playoff teams, there’s some more clarity about next year’s amateur draft order. Unlike in previous seasons, where the draft order was fixed in the inverse of the prior year’s standings, the 2023 draft will be subject to a lottery. As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the top selections. All 18 non-playoff teams are technically in the running for any of the top six picks, albeit with increasingly diminished odds for the clubs with better records. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the higher odds.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).

Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline and Carlos Collazo of Baseball America each relayed the odds for the first overall pick in next season’s draft.

  1. Nationals (55-107): 16.5%
  2. Athletics (60-102): 16.5%
  3. Pirates (62-100, 61-101 in ’21): 16.5%
  4. Reds (62-100, 83-79 in ’21): 13.25%
  5. Royals (65-97): 10%
  6. Tigers (66-96): 7.5%
  7. Rangers (68-94, 60-102 in ’21): 5.5%
  8. Rockies (68-94, 74-87 in ’21): 3.9%
  9. Marlins (69-93): 2.7%
  10. Angels (73-89): 1.8%
  11. Diamondbacks (74-88, 52-110 in ’21): 1.4%
  12. Cubs (74-88, 71-91 in ’21): 1.1%
  13. Twins (78-84, 73-89 in ’21): 0.9%
  14. Red Sox (78-84, 92-70 in ’21): 0.76%
  15. White Sox (81-81, 93-69 in ’21): 0.62%
  16. Giants (81-81, 107-55 in ’21): 0.48%
  17. Orioles (83-79): 0.36%
  18. Brewers (86-76): 0.23%

The date of the draft lottery has not been formally announced, but Mayo notes it’s expected to take place during the Winter Meetings. Joe Doyle of Prospects Live first reported last month that it’ll be run at the Winter Meetings on December 6.

After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The Nationals will therefore pick no later than 7th, the A’s will pick no later than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only move up if drawn into the top six. The Brewers, for instance, will either win a pick between 1st and 6th or pick 18th; there is no scenario in which Milwaukee picks between 7th and 17th. If the Orioles don’t win a lottery pick, they’ll either pick 17th or 18th (only moving to 18th if Milwaukee is drawn into the top six).

While the process for the non-playoff teams is relatively straightforward, the ordering for the teams that qualify for the postseason is more complex, Mayo and Collazo report. The playoff teams will first be arranged by the round in which they’re eliminated — teams that lose in the Wild Card Round awarded higher picks than those that lose in the Division Series, teams that lose in the DS before clubs eliminated in the Championship Series, etc.

Within each group of eliminated clubs, teams are first sorted by revenue sharing status. Collazo reports that revenue sharing recipients will receive higher priority over non revenue sharing-recipients. Thus, the loser of the Rays – Guardians Wild Card series (both teams are revenue sharing recipients) would receive a higher selection than the loser of the Cardinals – Phillies series (neither team receives revenue sharing). Teams eliminated in the same round with the same revenue sharing status are then ordered by their reverse regular season win percentage.

While it won’t affect the order of the 2023 draft, the new CBA also introduced restrictions on teams qualifying for the lottery in consecutive seasons. Clubs that don’t receive revenue sharing are ineligible to earn a lottery pick in consecutive years. Teams that do receive revenue sharing aren’t permitted to receive a lottery pick for more than two straight years.

It looks as if the draft order will be settled two months from now, but there’s obviously plenty of uncertainty as to which players will be at the top of the class. Baseball America updated its preliminary top 100 draft prospects last month, slotting LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander and Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez among the most talented prospects. There’ll obviously be plenty of movement once the amateur baseball circuit kicks back off next winter and spring.

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