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Aidan Miller

Twins Deadline Notes: Phillies, Duran, Jax, Paddack, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | August 11, 2025 at 8:37pm CDT

It wasn’t really a shock that the Twins became deadline sellers, as the club’s downturn in June and July pretty much closed the door on Minnesota’s chances of contending.  However, the sheer scope of the Twins’ selloff was eye-opening, as the club swung nine different trades within four days of the July 31 deadline and sent 11 different players to eight separate clubs.  Several behind-the-scenes details about the trades the Twins both did and didn’t make have filtered out since July 31, and Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Minnesota Star Tribune adds a few more notes about the front office approached this pivotal four-day period.

Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax were both pursued by several teams, though “the Dodgers didn’t show much interest in” either reliever, Nightengale writes.  This runs somewhat contrary to a pre-deadline report that linked Los Angeles to the duo, though it could be that the Dodgers simply weren’t interested in paying what ended up being a high price tag for either pitcher.  Though the Dodgers were known to be considering pretty much every reliever on the market, the reigning World Series champs’ biggest bullpen splash ended up being another Twin in Brock Stewart.  Though Stewart is arbitration-eligible through 2027, his “trade value was more commensurate with a rental reliever because of his injury history,” according to Nightengale, which is why Minnesota obtained outfielder James Outman (something of a spare part in L.A.) rather than prospects.

The Twins wanted two top-100 prospects for Duran, an asking price commensurate with the closer’s quality and the fact that he is arb-controlled through 2027.  It was a big enough ask to dissuade the Mariners, who “were deep into talks with the Twins” and may have been the runners-up in the Duran talks.  The Phillies refused to give up Andrew Painter for Duran or anyone, and ended up landing Duran for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and young starter Mick Abel.

Technically, this trade package didn’t meet Minnesota’s ask, since Abel was no longer part of top-100 rankings heading into the 2025 season.  Still, Abel has been a regular on such rankings for the previous four years, was selected 15th overall by the Phils in the 2020 draft, and is a big league-ready starter after making his MLB debut this season.

Tait and Leo De Vries (acquired by the A’s from the Padres in the Mason Miller blockbuster) were the only consensus top-100 prospects who changed teams at this year’s deadline, speaking to the high value that clubs place on these top prospects.  Nightengale writes that Minnesota felt Tait “had the highest upside” of any of the players that the Mariners offered for Duran, and preferred Tait to another top Phillies prospect in shortstop Aidan Miller.  This would seem to imply that Philadelphia was also willing to include Miller as the top prospect in the package, which tracks with past reports indicating that Painter and perhaps Justin Crawford were the only real untouchables within the Phils’ minor league system.

Duran was dealt on July 30 and the Twins then swung another trade with the Phillies the next day, moving Harrison Bader for two lower-level prospects (outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria).  The Twins and Phillies had previously talked about combining Duran and Bader into a single deal, but Nightengale writes that Minnesota wanted to move Duran separately.

This left Bader as one of the seven trades Minnesota swung on the July 31 deadline day itself, including the deal that sent Jax to the Rays for Taj Bradley.  Since Jax is also arb-controlled through 2027, the Twins initially wanted a prospect package “similar to the one they received in the Duran deal.”  This could explain why “Jax’s market didn’t pick up until the last day,” Nightengale notes, and perhaps why teams like the Dodgers were balking.  Rather than getting a prospect back for Jax, the Twins instead got an experienced MLB starter who is controlled through 2029, and as the club is betting that Bradley has a higher ceiling of performance.

Minnesota’s trading flurry began when Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak were sent to the Tigers on July 28 in exchange for catching prospect Enrique Jimenez.  Paddack was known to be receiving interest from the Rays and Yankees, and Nightengale adds that the Reds were another club at least exploring the right-hander’s market.  With Paddack off the board, Cincinnati pivoted to land another rental starter in Zack Littell as part of a three-team trade involving the Rays and Dodgers.

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Cincinnati Reds Minnesota Twins Notes Philadelphia Phillies Aidan Miller Brock Stewart Chris Paddack Eduardo Tait Griffin Jax Jhoan Duran Mick Abel

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Phillies Reportedly Targeting Controllable Relievers

By Darragh McDonald | July 10, 2025 at 2:41pm CDT

The Phillies are known to be focused on bullpen help, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitting as much last month. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is showing more willingness to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get more controllable arms.

As noted by Gelb, this is in contrast to the club’s recent bullpen pursuits. At last year’s deadline, the Phils acquired Carlos Estévez, a rental. This winter, their big addition was grabbing Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. They appear to be dreaming a bit bigger ahead of this year’s deadline. Gelb reports that they are expecting the Twins to sell and have their eyes on Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax.

The Twins aren’t surefire sellers just yet. At 45-47, they are only three games out of a playoff spot. However, the payroll appears to be tight, as they were limited to fairly modest moves in the winter. They signed Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France to one-year deals worth a combined $10.25MM. With ownership exploring a sale of the franchise, the front office may not get much more wiggle room to add this summer.

Even if they fall back in the standings and move more clearly into seller mode, they wouldn’t have to trade Durán or Jax. Both pitchers can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. Both could be key parts of the club’s bullpen plans next year and in 2027 as well.

Durán is making $4.125MM and Jax $2.365MM. Both players will be due raises for next year but should still be underpaid. Jax has been dominant throughout his career, with a 2.39 earned run average, 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 63.9% ground ball rate. Jax also has strong numbers, particularly dating back to the start of last year. Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, he has a 2.77 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 49.6% ground ball rate.

Talented relievers who reach free agency can earn eight-figure salaries, so there’s lots of value here for the Twins. However, if they decide this isn’t their year, there would be an argument for making moves. Reliever performance can be volatile and injuries are quite common nowadays. Though holding Durán and Jax for the future would be understandable, it’s a path that does have some risk.

For the Phillies, acquiring one or both of those arms would bolster their bullpen for this year and potentially for the future as well. Romano is a free agent after this season, so it could proactively address next year’s bullpen and perhaps give the club one less thing to do in the winter.

But as mentioned, going this route would require the club to give up more notable prospect talent. Gelb suggests that Andrew Painter is still unavailable but the club might not have any other truly untouchable prospects.

Aidan Miller gets a specific mention in the piece as an attractive guy who could be moved. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 draft, Miller just turned 21 years old but is already performing well in Double-A. In 64 games at that level, he has just seven home runs but has a 14.1% walk rate and has stolen 31 bases while holding down the shortstop position.

That combination of skills makes him a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport. It’s rare for those kinds of players to be available but perhaps the Phils have the right amount of urgency. They have been in the playoffs a lot lately with a strong roster but without getting a ring. Many of their core players are now between 32 and 36 years old, so perhaps the club wants to strike before the aging curve slopes more steeply.

Gelb mentions that the Phils probably wouldn’t flip someone like Mick Abel for a rental but it doesn’t seem like he’s completely unavailable. He also mentions Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait as prospects who could be of note in the coming weeks. Hendry Mendez, Alex McFarlane and Jean Cabrera get mentioned as intriguing potential secondary pieces.

Gelb also floats Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians as a fit similar to Durán or Jax. Clase has been Cleveland’s closer for years now but the club is in a tight spot this season. They are a bit behind the Twins, currently at 43-48 and 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. Clase is making just $4.5MM this year, $6MM next year and then there are two $10MM club options with $2MM buyouts.

Clase hasn’t been quite as dominant this year. His 22.9% strikeout rate is a couple of ticks below his 24.6% career rate. His 45.8% ground ball rate is still above average but far off his 58.8% career rate. Regardless, he has still been quite good and there’s loads of value in his contract. The Guardians could certainly keep him around beyond this campaign, though if the Phils are dangling notable prospects, they will probably answer the phone.

Another consideration of the Phils is shaking up their outfield, according to Gelb, including trading from their major league outfield. Both Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler have been somewhat disappointing at times this year and it’s been previously reported that the club may want to make room for prospect Justin Crawford.

Crawford is slashing .339/.410/.444 in Triple-A this year, despite only having two home runs. He won’t keep a .417 batting average on balls in play forever but he has an 11% walk rate and his speed has helped him steal 28 bases and run down balls in center field. Kepler, meanwhile, is hitting .213/.307/.378 on the season. Marsh started slow but has been heating up and is now at .265/.341/.378 for the whole year. He’s also controlled for two more seasons after this one, while Kepler is signed to a one-year deal.

That means Kepler is probably viewed as more disposable by the Phils but Marsh is surely more capable of bringing back a return that could help elsewhere on the roster. Kepler is making $10MM but Marsh just $3MM. Marsh is also a somewhat-capable center fielder, which is a weak spot in the league-wide market. His defense isn’t strong up the middle but a team without better options might take a chance on him.

If the Phils think Crawford can immediately come up and hit major league pitching, there’s an argument to flipping someone and bringing him up, though it’s a risky plan. Even the best prospects in the world can struggle when first exposed to the big leagues, so it would certainly be a gamble.

It’s an interesting dynamic with the deadline approaching. Dombrowski has a gunslinger reputation and there are some signs that his trigger finger is getting itchy. On the other hand, the flip side of the Phils having a veteran-laden roster is that they will need young players to step up in the near future. Dealing prospects would cut into Philadelphia’s ability to organically shift from one era to another but perhaps they focused enough on the present to make a bold move.

Photo courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Imagn Images

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Cleveland Guardians Minnesota Twins Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Aidan Miller Alex McFarlane Andrew Painter Aroon Escobar Brandon Marsh Eduardo Tait Emmanuel Clase Griffin Jax Hendry Mendez Jean Cabrera Jhoan Duran Justin Crawford Max Kepler Mick Abel

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Notable Draft Signings: 7/18/23

By Anthony Franco | July 18, 2023 at 11:11pm CDT

The first overall pick signed for a record bonus with the Pirates this afternoon. Meanwhile, Arizona signed their first-round selection for a $4.4MM figure. The other $2MM+ signees from Tuesday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):

  • The Phillies announced a deal with 27th overall pick Aidan Miller. The club didn’t specify the signing figure, but Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports it at $3.1MM (Twitter link). That’s a little north of the $2.97MM slot value. A high school infielder out of Florida, Miller appeared on the top 25 players on each of the referenced pre-draft rankings. The 6’2″ third baseman is credited with some of the highest offensive upside in the high school class, though he had a relatively down draft year after injuring the hamate bone in his hand. He’s already 19 — older than the typical high schooler — but has significant power potential and a chance to stick at the hot corner. Miller bypasses a commitment to Arkansas to enter the pro ranks.
  • The Padres agreed to terms with 25th selection Dillon Head, Callis reports (on Twitter). The Illinois high schooler gets a $2.8MM bonus, a little below the pick’s $3.17MM slot value. Head ranked 27th on MLB Pipeline’s pre-draft list but as low as 50th on Keith Law’s ranking at The Athletic. The lefty-hitting outfielder is an elite runner and a potential quality defensive center fielder. Evaluators are split on how much offensive upside he possesses in a 5’11” or 6’0″ frame. Head was a Clemson commit.
  • The Royals went well overslot to sign second-round draftee Blake Wolters, according to Callis (Twitter link). A high school right-hander from Illinois, he lands a $2.8MM bonus that beats the $1.95MM value of the 44th pick. The 6’4″ hurler had a velocity bump into the mid-90s during his draft year. He’s credited with a quality slider and intriguing athleticism but faces questions about his third pitch. It’s a fairly common refrain for an upside flier on a high school pitcher. Kansas City liked Wolters enough to sign him away from the University of Arizona.
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2023 Amateur Draft Kansas City Royals Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Aidan Miller Blake Wolters Dillon Head

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2023 MLB Draft, First Round Results

By Mark Polishuk | July 9, 2023 at 10:58pm CDT

The 2023 MLB Draft begins tonight, and this post will be constantly updated with each team’s selections from the first round.  The Mets and Dodgers are the only teams without a first-rounder, as their top picks were each dropped 10 places overall as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2022.  As a result, the Mets won’t have a selection until the 32nd overall pick, and the Dodgers won’t select until 36th overall.

The first-round selections….

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
  2. Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
  3. Detroit Tigers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
  4. Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University Of Florida
  5. Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
  6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon University
  7. Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
  8. Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High School (TX)
  9. Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, University of Tennessee
  10. Miami Marlins: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High School (OR)
  11. Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic
  12. Arizona Diamondbacks: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
  13. Chicago Cubs: Matthew Shaw, SS, University of Maryland
  14. Boston Red Sox: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia
  15. Chicago White Sox: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University Of Mississippi
  16. San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison High School (VA)
  17. Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
  18. Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
  19. Tampa Bay Rays: Brayden Taylor, 3B/SS, TCU
  20. Toronto Blue Jays: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
  21. St. Louis Cardinals: Chase Davis, OF, University of Arizona
  22. Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn High School (OH)
  23. Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach High School (CA)
  24. Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, University of Florida
  25. San Diego Padres: Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
  26. New York Yankees: George Lombard Jr., 3B/SS, Gulliver Prep High School (FL)
  27. Philadelphia Phillies: Aidan Miller, 3B/SS, Mitchell High School (FL)
  28. Houston Astros: Brice Matthews, SS, University of Nebraska

This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days.  Rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, rounds 3-10 on Monday, and the draft’s first 70 picks will be made tonight.  Those 70 picks cover the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick.  The Mariners received the PPI selection at 29th overall, since Julio Rodriguez filled the criteria of winning the Rookie Of The Year Award, being part of his team’s active roster from Opening Day onwards, and he ranked as a preseason top-100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.

The PPI is one of several new wrinkles to the 2023 draft, as this is the first draft held under the new guidelines established by the 2022-2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement.  The process for determining the 14 teams in the Competitive Balance Rounds was also tweaked, though the teams (all in the bottom 10 in market size or revenue size) will still have their picks split up over two mini-rounds sandwiched around the second round.  The most obvious change came at the very top of the board, as this was the first year of the lottery process to determine the draft’s top six picks.  This is how the Pirates ended up with the first overall selection, even though the Nationals and A’s each had worse records in 2022.

This year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden in years, so several potential franchise-changing players could be starting their pro careers tonight.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

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2023 Amateur Draft Newsstand Transactions Aidan Miller Arjun Nimmala Blake Mitchell Brayden Taylor Brice Matthews Brock Wilken Bryce Eldridge Chase Davis Chase Dollander Colt Emerson Dillon Head Dylan Crews Enrique Bradfield George Lombard Jr. Hurston Waldrep Jacob Gonzalez Jacob Wilson (b. 2002) Kyle Teel Matt Shaw Max Clark Noble Meyer Nolan Schanuel Paul Skenes Ralphy Velazquez Rhett Lowder Tommy Troy Walker Jenkins Wyatt Langford

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