The Hot Stove has been turned off. Big Hype Prospects (and baseball at large) enters the coldest month. Still, we have much to discuss.
Five BHPs In The News
Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (MLB)
41 PA, 2 HR, .300/.317/.550
A former first-overall pick, Lewis showed signs of breakout in 2020 but wasn’t able to take the field. He also lost his 2021 campaign. Encouragingly, he posted a .313/.405/.534 line in 153 Triple-A plate appearances last season. He also hit five home runs with 12 steals and an uncharacteristically high 11.8 percent walk rate. One of the main knocks against him as a hitter is overaggression. Alas, he required surgery on his ACL and is expected to be out until next June or July. While injuries have plagued his early career, he’s still managed encouraging skill growth.
This winter has served as a rollercoaster from the perspective of Lewis’ future role with the Twins. Aggressive offers to Carlos Correa made it seem as if Minnesota had a shot to sign him. Then, as we’re all aware, Correa agreed to contracts with the Giants and then the Mets. The door was open for Lewis to supplant Kyle Farmer at midseason. Now, the Twins are back in on Correa. Recent rumors make it seem as if they have a real shot. If they ink Correa, Lewis will move down the defensive spectrum.
Triston Casas, 22, 1B, BOS (MLB)
(AAA) 317 PA, 11 HR, .273/.382/.481
Casas came up in the last edition of BHP so I’ll refer you there for a description of him as a player. More recently, he’s been tied to the Marlins in trade talks. Miami is shopping its rotation depth while hunting for an impactful lineup presence. Curiously, fan reactions on social media seem opposed to a deal from both perspectives. Red Sox fans have been sold on Casas as a mid-lineup contributor. He certainly seems to check all the desirable hitter boxes – power, discipline, and a decent rate of contact. It’s well established that pitchers are less reliable than hitters from a health perspective. Sox fans would rather discuss dealing the likes of Ceddanne Rafaela as part of a package. Following the DFA of Lewin Diaz – who was once described in similar ways to Casas, Marlins fans are understandably hesitant to burn their pitching depth on a first baseman – a position many view as easy to solve in free agency. The club can stand to upgrade at nearly every offensive position.
Josh Smith, 25, UT, TEX (MLB)
253 PA, 2 HR, 4 SB, .197/.307/.249
A utility man acquired from the Yankees as part of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith technically burned his rookie eligibility last year. He demonstrated the plate discipline and contact rate for which he’s known but struggled with the quality of said contact. He blends a fly ball profile with poor barreled and hard contact rates. His 105.4-mph max exit velocity is well below league average. Fly ball hitters who make consistently weak contact typically don’t start.
Earlier in the offseason, the Rangers were reportedly shopping Smith (and the next guy) for upgrades elsewhere. He’s also in the left field mix – a deep collection of interesting but unestablished outfielders. Connecting a few dots, the Rangers recent interest in Bryan Reynolds could have implications for Smith – either because his path to playing time is that much longer or he’s been dealt to the Pirates. The Rangers are known for a fly ball-oriented approach to their hitting instruction. Smith might benefit from an organization that invests in a more balanced contact profile.
Ezequiel Duran, 23, UT, TEX (MLB)
220 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .236/.277/.365
As with Smith, the Rangers perhaps prematurely used Duran’s rookie year. A third baseman who has been forced off the position by Josh Jung, Duran has moderate issues with plate discipline and contact rate. He features above-average raw power as evidenced by a 110.2-mph max exit velocity. However, if he qualified, his 85.9-mph average exit velocity would have ranked among the bottom 20 in the league. Consistency held him back in his debut. Duran doesn’t have an obvious role on the Rangers roster and has much to learn in all facets of his game.
Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
24.1 IP, 8.88 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 ERA
Jameson is one of several young pitchers battling for a rotation role with the Diamondbacks. After allowing a 6.95 ERA over 114 innings at Triple-A last season, I was skeptical about his ability to fit in a Major League rotation. Four starts did much to assuage my doubts. He’s a gimmicky pitcher who might best be used for short outings or relief work.
Pitch extension – the distance from the rubber when the pitcher releases the ball – is a trait taught by many organizations for a few reasons. The state of the arts suggests pitchers with average or better extension are more likely to have smoother mechanics. Extension also plays with perceived velocity. Jameson has among the worst extension in the league. His reach is short enough to play with hitters’ timing because his offerings feel like the crawl to home plate. It’s not uncommon to see hitters take uncomfortable swings against his two fastballs. Jameson has above-average command and also wields a slider he can throw for called strikes or swings out of the zone. His two fastballs both tunnel well with his two-location slider. Unfortunately, the heaters are very homer prone on account of his poor extension.
Three More
Ryne Nelson, ARI (24): Nelson is a typical pitching prospect possessing a four-pitch repertoire. He leans heavily on his fastball which he typically uses up in the zone to draw whiffs and weak fly balls. Neither his slider nor curve have stepped forward as his dominant breaking ball, though both offerings draw 50 grades from multiple evaluators. His changeup still lags behind his other pitches. He could slot into a high-leverage relief role. As a starter, he needs further refinement to become more than an innings eater.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): Unlike Jameson and Nelson, Pfaadt has yet to cut his teeth in the Majors. His minor league results are the most encouraging of the trio. A fly ball pitcher who generates plenty of swinging strikes and avoids free passes, Pfaadt shows advanced feel for using his repertoire to manipulate opposing hitters. There’s debate as to the quality of his specific offerings. It’s hard to pin down because he seemingly has used at least six distinct pitches.
Lenyn Sosa, CWS (22): Sosa was overmatched in a brief trial during the 2022 campaign, but he performed ably at Double- and Triple-A. He’s currently in the White Sox second base mix, competing with the likes of Romy Gonzalez and Leury Garcia. Scouts typically describe him as a future role player due to below-average athleticism. He habitually expands the strike zone.
Smith plays with a lot of heart but he’s never going to hit enough to be a regular. But his glove is ok.
His minor league numbers were rather decent offensively. I think it may be early to give up on him, but I would still want to trade him before his value tanks. Here’s an idea: try to see if Gleyber Torres can play left field and offer Otto, Duran, Smith, and Hauver. for him. Or, take the same package and offer it to Boston for Verdugo.
Lewis needs to escape the Twins.
Dbacks have 3 out of 8. You can’t tell me they’re not on the come up. Not saying this year but could be a reckoning for the next 5 years. Also not having much money on the books either… also, Lawlar I believe is better than all four of these players listed except for maybe Pfaadt but damn it’s finally exciting to be a dbacks fan.
zack novotny, I agree that the D’backs are on the move. As a Giants fan this is concerning for me. And like you, I see progress this year, but don’t see serious contention for another season or 2. Not sure I understand re Lawlar. Not that he doesn’t have big potential, but he’s a SS, 19 years old, and at least 2 years away. I think this year it’s Pfaadt, who’s going to step forward.
It’s because he’s two years away that he mentioned Lawlar; the new RotY of the year incentives encourage teams to call up top prospects towards the end of the season to maintain their Rookie status and get MLB reps to prepare for a run the following season (which is the exact reason that Carroll, Jameson, and Nelson’s service times were handled the way they were, and a possible reason we may not see Pfaadt debut until VERY late in the season).
Ahmed is a FA after this season, so there is a vacancy for Lawlar to fill at SS as soon as ’24 (or late ’23 if they decide to option Perdomo or deal Ahmed; the sweet freedoms of roster flexibility).
You missed my point. The article lists 3 pitchers that could potentially contribute this season for the D’backs. Again, not sure why, no matter how much promise there is in Lawlar, his being a SS, and at least 2 years away, how he fits into it.
I didn’t miss the point, though; I explained how Lawlar fits in the timeline for this season (taking care to note the scenarios in which it would happen); he only fits in the sense that it will really only be to get developmental reps to prepare for a full season next year.
He fits in the timeline in the same way that Pfaadt does (Pfaadt is #8 on the SP depth chart, or #9 if Martin is a viable spot SP); they’re both much lower on the depth chart strictly due to not being on the 40-man roster, and will likely only exhaust their rookie eligibility this season in the event of a large string of injuries simultaneously.
I fail to see how a mention of Lawlar is out of place when he’s on the same timeline as Pfaadt and he plays in the IF (like all of the other players listed in this article).
These other guys have the inside track to earlier playing time, but Zack isn’t wrong to believe that Lawlar is better than most of them (because essentially every prospect outlet would agree).
It wasn’t a suggestion that Lawlar belonged on this list specifically, more a commentary that even after listing three guys from the system there’s still another one that’s better than almost all of the other guys in the article. I personally share that excitement.
You did miss the point, because Lawler, if he is called up at the end of the season is irrelevant to MLB-ready pitchers who might contribute this season.
Pfaandt and Lawlor aren’t on the same timeline per Fangraphs. Pfaandt is 24, a SP, who pitched in 10 games at AAA last season, with a 2023 ETA. Lawlor is a 20 year-old SS, who played 20 games at AA, and has a 2025 ETA.
The article listed 3 AZ prospects, all pitchers that might contribute to the 2023 team. I have no problem with any excitement about Lawlor, but don’t see the relevancy in the context of this article.
My dude, telling people what they did and didn’t understand about your argument isn’t the greatest look, especially when you’re disregarding the context added by their argument in turn.
I pointed out how Pfaadt and Lawlar are in the same situation in regards to the 40-man, because you asserted that Lawlar doesn’t belong in the same discussion as the AZ pitchers (which you’re oddly fixated on for an article titled Big Hype PROSPECTS). By the logic you’re using, Pfaadt doesn’t belong in this discussion either because he’s not likely to debut until late. He’s absolutely a top prospect, but he’s #8/9 on the depth chart with other top prospects ahead of him (that have earned rotation looks) and a few guys that are on their last chance (Bumgarner and maybe Martin).
As far as the FG ETAs, yes those are technically the projected ETAs; none of those ETAs are concerned with current roster composition, though. Projections are based primarily on track record as well, which I shouldn’t have to tell you a ’21 pick out of HS that lost his debut season to injury is obviously shorter than most on.
You touched on why that’s silly to dismiss without even realizing it, though; “Lawlor is a 20 year-old SS, who played 20 games at AA…..” after coming back from injury IN HIS FIRST FULL SEASON. The DBacks have put guys on as aggressive as a promotion timeline as they can handle coming back from injury (worked pretty well for Carroll, and they’re likely to do so the same for Jones).
’23 is not a contention season, so there’s little incentive for the DBacks to start Pfaadt’s service time early (which would make him a FA one year earlier), especially when they already have guys on the 40-man that have a shot at RotY (Carroll is a frontrunner and I personally see Jameson as a viable candidate).
There are only two compensation picks every year; if they want to take a shot at 2 of Carroll, Jameson, or Nelson making it this season and potentially Pfaadt and Lawlar in the running next season (which would entail calling those two up late in the year to get MLB reps while maintaining rookie eligibility), that’s the best course of action long term. Is it guaranteed? No, but you don’t luck into outcomes like that.
Nobody said that Lawlar belonged in the article (not trying to turn this into DBacks Story Hour; I love hearing about other team’s prospects as well), but a mention of him absolutely fits the context of such an article’s discussion if Pfaadt does as well.
I’ll make this easy for you. What if I wrote, Scherzer, Kershaw and Verlander are the best older pitchers in baseball, but Aaron Judge is better than those 3? That is essentially the same thing that I responded to, which was “…Lawlar I believe is better than all four of these players listed…”. Maybe that wasn’t the intent, and if @zack novotny, replied something to that effect, I would have thought nothing more about it.
I don’t understand why you then come after me. I gave a thumbs up, responded that I agreed, and as an after thought mentioned that, in the context, it was an odd comparison.
We got too deep in the weeds with things like ETA. From my point of view it essentially came down to comparing a SS to pitchers.
Maybe you believe both Pfaandt and Lawlar will be late inning call-ups, thus equating them. Maybe you’re right, but that goes counter to everything I’ve read. I have no idea what will happen. I base my opinions on what I’ve read.
But that minor additional thought, I added to my initial positive response to @zack novotny has gotten blown out of all proportion.
It was easy for me from the beginning, you’re the one that seems to be struggling to grasp what’s going on here.
That is nowhere near the same comparison; we’re in the comment section of an article about PROSPECTS (it’s in the title) where Zack said “DBacks have 3 out of 8”; not all 8 of these names are pitchers, in fact most play in the IF (where Lawlar happens to play). Zack never used the word “pitcher”, either (“player” was used instead; you even just quoted it yourself).
Use context clues; the discussion was never about only pitchers; he was comparing prospects to prospects (not a SS to Ps). You added the assertion that Lawlar was a few years away as a reason that he was a confusing mention, so I explained how him and Pfaadt have the closest timelines to one another as prospects. That’s where you (not we) got too stuck on ETAs; I actually explained with detail why you should use additional context.
“I base my opinions on what I’ve read”, as well you should. I seriously meant no offense when I said that it’s something that you’re obviously not knowledgeable about; there just aren’t enough hours in every day to read up about every team and do thorough research. That’s why it’s nice to get well researched takes from educated fans; which is what I was trying to do for you, even while you were suggesting I didn’t get your (quite simple) point.
Can you see how implying someone can’t grasp a simple argument (multiple times, and then outright questioning reading comprehension) would piss somebody off after they took the time to give you information that would’ve required spending hours to compile otherwise?
It got blown out of proportion because you didn’t realize you had a bad initial take, and then doubled down by insulting my intelligence after I initially kindly (and informatively) explained why it was exactly that.
These have been rolling out for a while now. This isn’t the top 8 prospects at the moment, just prospects to take note of as they could be about to become MLB regulars.
wreckage, I am aware of that. And that’s precisely why I wondered why Lawlar was being mentioned. He is not about to be an MLB regular.
@tab He was just saying that he’s excited for the future, and that he thinks Lawlar will be good. He was adding to the conversation, and I appreciate that. If you are going to attempt to correct people for not sticking precisely to what the article says, I fear that this site will drive you crazy.
I wasn’t attempting to correct anyone. All I said was I didn’t understand someone saying Lawlar was better than those mentioned in the article, which were all pitchers that are close to be MLB, because Lawlar is none of those things.
I’d say it appears people are trying to correct how I should have interpreted the post I was responding to. Had it been more clear, with a better delineation between the pitchers close to MLB, and a prize prospect SS years away, I wouldn’t have posted anything. The lack of reading comprehension here makes me regret posting at all.
And you were given evidence as to why Lawlar wasn’t out of place in the discussion, which you ignored entirely based off of FG ETAs.
Your entire assertion is based around those ETAs and age/proximity against the counterargument of how Hazen has historically handled high-end prospects, recoveries from season-ending injuries, and 40-man moves (especially since the new incentive structure is just now in place, yet he immediately took great pain to preserve the rookie eligibility of three guys).
Nobody was trying to correct you, I was just explaining why I put more weight to historically demonstrated inclinations toward specific types of moves in specific scenarios actually made by the person in charge (to explain why Lawlar belonged in the discussion in the same capacity as Pfaadt). That’s your choice on whether you agree or not, but my assertions are backed with a little more contextual research than FG ETAs.
To be fair FG ETAs are great, but FG is a 3rd party company; as such, they have no short-term or long-term stake in how call-ups are handled. I use them all the time to gage MLB proximity as well, but when we’re talking about ACTUAL call-up timeline? Additional context is always needed.
All that being said, I like to think I’ve been fairly calm and logical in my responses; I’ll now let it be known that I don’t appreciate you insinuating that I didn’t understand your initial point (when I addressed it in my initial reply), nor do I appreciate you insinuating that there was a “lack of reading comprehension” present (if we’re speaking candidly, you were the only one that demonstrated anything close to such a thing).
No need to be a Richard when people are trying to help you understand something you obviously have little knowledge about. No offense, but you did absolutely no research beyond a cursory glance at The Board on FG and this article didn’t really give anything that people didn’t already know before.
Debate rages in Dbacksland about which if any of these three young pitchers should be converted to relief work. Nelson, Jameson and Pfaadt are the 3 primary candidates for one starting rotation slot. The question is, should one or both of the others be used in the bullpen? There is a need to fill 4 slots in the bullpen, plus no established Closer. There are a number of candidates on board, but none are proven.
And hilariously, all three were drafted as primary RP that got some SP looks in college (the same was true of Sims).
Casas: 115+ ops and top 3 ROY. Book it.
Re Jameson, believe you meant “did NOT DO much to assuage my doubts”?
Lots of mistakes in articles lately. Granted, this is written by Brad; however, I’ve often said MLBTR needs an editor. I used to do that for Bleacher Report. Pay me $200 a month and I’d do it for this site. And not only spelling and obvious errors – I learned a lot about writing during my years at BR. Tim, are you listening? Another benefit (besides reputation) is that writers can get pieces out quicker when they know they have an editor.
I’ll do it for $195
I’ll do it for $190
You want to read “good” writing, check out fishing and hunting guy. They need to turn in double-triple the copy because once edited it gets down to the level of fourth-grade.
@coop Your first sentence is not a sentence. I’m not employed by the grammar police, but editors should be held to higher standards.
Reread the Jameson blurb. He’s talking about Jameson’s performance in his 4 MLB starts, not his AAA stats
Yeah glad someone else was a bit confused by that. Very strange. I was pretty impressed with Jameson when he pitched against the Dodgers.
Nope, I wrote what I meant. Admittedly, “The four starts assuaged my doubts,” would have been clearer. I like the cadence of the muddier phrasing. Call it Carson Cistulli’s influence.
I closely watched most of Nelson and Jameson’s outings last year and, as a Dodgers fan, I’m unfortunately convinced they’ll both be very good big league pitchers. Probably in 2023.
Overall good coverage, but I take slight umbrage with writing Jameson up as a “gimmicky” pitcher. I won’t argue against the assertion that the low extension could indicate some un-smooth mechanics (but I’m also not under the illusion that a generously listed 6′ SP will have anything close to league average extension); however, he’s much more impressive than the top of his StatCast page.
Speaking of that, the sliders on top of BS page don’t differentiate between FB types, so what you see up top is the average of his 4S and Sinker velos. His average 4S velo was actually 95.9 mph and his average Sinker was 94.4 mph (Jameson’s average Sinker was only ~0.5 mph slower than Nelson’s average 4S). That is true for the Spin Rate slider as well (with 149 rpm difference between the two FBs, it makes the 4S look lower than it actually is).
His plate discipline stats on there were fairly encouraging for a guy with 45 FV Command as well: 56.6 Zone% (8.1% above MLB average), 45.8 Edge% (3.2% above MLB average), 80.6 Zone Contact% (1.4% below MLB average), and a 26.1 Whiff% (1.4% above MLB average). I won’t avoid the downsides of that profile; a 58.2 First Strike% (2.6% below MLB average) and a 9.2 Meatball% (2% above MLB average; but look at his Sinker location heatmap and tell me part of that wasn’t by design).
He has plus velocity on two FBs and his SL/CH are both at least average by every stuff metric (so a larger than normal velo gap considering the plus FB velo; along with a work in progress CB that’s ~19 mph slower on average than his 4S); if that’s what he looks like without smooth mechanics, what does smooth mechanics look like for him? And there’s reason to believe that’s possible with another year of working with Strom.
Gimmicky was a poor choice of words. It has a negative connotation. But his delivery is certainly unusual. Fangraphs described it as a “…flummoxing arm-and-legs delivery…”, that’s “…a tough look for hitters, especially righties…”, and called it “…a somewhat violent, atypical delivery…”. So I can see why gimmicky was used, even if it wasn’t the best description.
I guess I more take exception to taking great care to emphasize the shortcomings of his profile and only mentioning his stuff to state that some of the pitches tunnel well and he can throw his SL for called/swinging strikes. To be fair those are good things, but there’s not even a reference to the quality of his stuff at all; which is the entire selling point of his profile.
Then the final line, “Unfortunately, the heaters are very homer prone on account of his poor extension”… he gave up 2 HRs in his 24.1 IP against LAD, SDP, and SFG (one was on a 4S and the other was on a SL, which was the same number he was expected to have by xHR).
Maybe he was HR prone because he pitched AA in Amarillo or AAA in Reno (which notably diminishes pitch movement)? Or maybe throwing high-velo FBs near the top of the strike zone or over the plate generally gets them hit hard?
It’s a bit of a lazy conclusion to definitively state that that’s the reason he was hit hard (especially in a season that the PCL had higher than average offense and he had success limiting hard contact and getting a reasonable number of swings-and-misses while pitching 6 IP per start in MLB).
Humorously it was referenced that Jameson has above average command by the author (I just posted the stats to illustrate along with the context of his stuff), when a 45 FV grade for command was the only thing that caused him to be graded at a 50 FV as a SP prospect by multiple reputable outlets. Yet, he’s talking about him like he belongs in the bullpen.
It wasn’t so much the negative connotation of the word “gimmicky”, but the hasty conclusion while completely disregarding some context (and the FO has stated that they have some preference towards peripherals over performance in MiLB; there’s no other logical reason they were comfortable calling Jameson up with his AAA numbers).
Casas is much ado about nothing. It’s not like they’re going to trade him for Dennis Eckersley, a la Ted Cox, the 6 for 6 wunderkind.
Let Casas play and let’s see what he is capable of before we get all excited about keeping him or trading him away.
The mere fact that another team might be interested him might just be a good sign.
See what he is capable of? Dude came up and sported a 120 wRC+. 20% better than league average. Just needs to avoid the sophomore slump.
Kind of lazy to compare Casas as a same sort of prospect as Diaz once was. There’s a pretty substantial skill and production profile there, not to mention rather different contexts. If Miami fans are supposed to be turned off of Casas due to a supposed similarity there, they might as well not want any corner infielders or outfielders of note, as we could similarly stretch hundreds of quality prospects to be pitched as similar.
I agree. I don’t think Diaz is the driving factor for most Marlins fans being reticent about trading a proven pitcher for a prospect. I think it’s more likely that they would like to get a proven player back.
I think it’s more likely that they would like to get a proven player back.
==========================
Everyone wants certainty But if Casas hits .290 with 30 HRs, you’ll have more certainty, but a much more expensive price tag.
And presumably whomever you trade away, will also have a certainty risk. Rogers was all-world a year earlier. Not so much now.
I thought that was a bit odd as well. Diaz was unranked, so I have no way to tell if he was a fringy top-100, like #110, or whether he was fringy top-200.
The two ranger’s players aren’t really big hype or prospects.
The Arizona Fall League is awesome if you’ve never heard of it, 3 biggest can’t miss prospects who never planned out, Jerrod Kelenic, Christian Pache and Joey Bart, let’s hope they turn it around