It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.
Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.
First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.
Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…
Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025
Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.
That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.
Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.
With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.
Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024
Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.
Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.
It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.
Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.
Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025
Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.
It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.
Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season
The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.
Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.
At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.
Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season
It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.
Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.
Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025
Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)
Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.
Longer Shots
There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.
Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.
Wow!
I continue to lose brain cells everytime I see this as they can’t comprehend the stupidity and sadness of people who spend their life in shock after seeing every MLBTR headline.
I didn’t realize the Royals were that bad…
I didn’t realize Kansas City had a major league team.
Capt Yank, seems kinda harsh when 2015 WS champs is more recent than when last the Bombers won in 2009. More importantly, they did it without throwing the Brinks Armory at the payroll.
I respect what the Royals have been able to do this decade.
@MacVromit– let’s just face it the nicest thing about Kansas City is Mahomes and the Chiefs. Might be time for the Royals with cheese, to sell.
CapJudge: Let’s face it, you were owned by MacGromit all because you stepped out with your ill-conceived, arrogant Yankee comment. And you can’t just go away quietly, you have to double down. What a putz. You give the other Yankee fans around here a bad name.
@utah cornelius- your kind words have brought me to tears. Lol. Maybe it’s time to move? Get a life. You seem salty. Take a bath.
Hey they have a Pittaburg but no Steelers or Pirates or h.
Well The Ray’s try
This should feel mean, but only 6 other teams have won the WS since the last time KC did so.
I’m pretty sure most teams would have loved to have had a World Series Trophy parade, it may have been a few years ago but they had a good team!
josh taylor with a rebound year and his three years of control, too, no?
I bet they get Kelenic or Addell don’t have a centerfielder
Drew Waters is their center fielder and has actually looked competent in the majors, unlike those 2.
Absolutely no one is taking Dozier for that kind of money.
Not straight up. Gotta package him with a Nick Pratto or Scotty Barlow to get anything decent in return. Last bad contract swap the Royals pulled off was Jonathan Sanchez for Jeremy Guthrie. This is an organization which signed Yunieski Bentancourt and Lucas Duda, twice, so grain of salt every hypothetical.
For sure.
Pratto is a strike-out machine showing zero improvement. Not a great option for the Royals and their hit-friendly ballpark.
Barlow is a 30 year old relief pitcher. Not someone you bank on long term.
Ideally the team looks for a Veteran Starting pitcher with a bad deal who could step in and eat innings and mentor younger pitchers.
Madbum has 2 years on his deal and could be an option. He’s pricey – but would make a great mentor.
Jose Berrios hasn’t lived up to his deal – but he’s only 28 – and he’s under control through 2026 with a player option for 2027-2028. He’s one we could obtain for his cheaper years and if he produced, we could trade him for value before the player options killed our budget. Toronto really isn’t sure how to handle him.
Doubt they take on MadBum. Royals fans still hate him for 2014 and while I like the trade on paper it wouldn’t be a warm welcome.
Royals fans have short memories. They loved the Carlos Santana signing (despite how bad an idea it was). and Santana use to beat the hell out of us. I guarantee they’d get excited that MadBum was coming to town.
Could do a swap for another overpaid player.
yup. Royals could look to Arizona for a deal on MadBum. Madison would have been KC’s 3rd best starter in 2022 behind only Singer and Greinke… Pairing Dozier with an under-valued player like Barlow could get that sort of deal done.
Keller and Dozier would be my top choices. If you’re continuing looking at minor league pitchers they should fetch one each
Dozier has no value. Keller could get a minor leaguer or two but nothing to exciting.
Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.
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The problem with this statement is the writer’s assumption that Melendez value is higher that what he’s shown. He was pretty bad as a catcher. He might not be much better as a corner outfielder. The minor league bat looks good, but not great.
If MJ morphs into a .750 OPS corner OF, with a marginal glove, he might be worth a heck of a lot more now, if other teams think he can still be a catcher.
I think Melendez follows the same path as another Royals prospect, catcher turned outfielder Wil Myers.
Not to harp on semantics but I have no idea how a 41 homer 1.000 OPS season in the minors in 2021 isn’t considered great.
Yeah it was a great minor league season. Did he knock the cover off the ball against major leaguers or did he kind of just level off to average. ?
JoeBrady;
I believe under Dayton Moore that the administration was happy with the progress of Melendez as a catcher. They value catching and worked hard with him for years. Salvy is the reason he was put in the OF.
A few things there – 1) Salvy is a team leader and that’s what a catcher is supposed to be. Nice fit. And as noted he’s signed for 3 more years at something far lower than an astronomical salary. 2) DH’ing Salvy. Am sure they’ll do it some. But start with the 2 young 1B’s they have (Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto) that can’t play at the same time unless one DH’s. They like both those bats. So they can work around injuries and rest with those 3, as well as get Melendez some reps as a part-time catcher and temporary starter if Salvy is injured.
Here’s the thing to keep in mind about both Melendez’ poor showing and Salvy’s deterioration (only some was age) at catcher…..
For the last 3-4 years the Royals have had among the worst pitching philosophies and processes in MLB (probably tied at the bottom with the Nationals). We immediately think of ruining / not developing pitchers – which they did. We don’t think about ruining / not developing catchers as well (Keibert Ruiz was one of the best young catchers in MLB with the Dodgers. He’s struggling with the Nationals). While a catcher runs the pitching game, he’s has to do it under the framework of the organization, manager, and pitching coaches. One of the first things the Royals new GM went after was to have the pitching approach overhauled (manager and pitching coach were fired). The Royals rebuild was based on young pitchers and almost all have done poorly (still not too late to get them in the right direction). If that organizational change is positive we may see Melendez as a much better catcher (he’s only 24 years-old) starting this year.
I concur. Melendez and Pratto look to me to be Dozier retreads. Neither is exceptionally good with the bat. They both have power – but power tends to be wasted in the K – and that downtown ballpark is still 10 years away. The OBPs are both terrible and Pratto’s minor league strikeout rate would be top 10 in the majors. Isbel and Hicklen are right there with him. While Pratto has elite defense at 1b, who cares? It’s 1B. Meanwhile, Melendez doesn’t have good plate skills or OF skills. These are the type of prospects the Royals should be moving before they lose their prospect status.
I’m not sure what the royals are trying to accomplish. They have half of a good lineup but now they trade their hitting depth pieces for relievers while their rotation is stil one of the worst in the league?
What is the purpose of that?
Their big failure was to not develope any good pitchers despite drafting lots of them.went too old school instead of the modern driveline type of coaching.
They all have bad fastballs with bad movement profiles that could have been fixed with modern pitch design
Taylor and mondesi are by means great hitters but still that really does nothing for that team.
Or are they planning to flip those relievers for prospects and do kind of another mini rebuild to build something around the young talented hitters (vinnie,Witt,Melendez) within the next 2-3 years?
Depth of hitting is right on the cusp – Massey, Olivares, and Pasquantino were all high average guys in AAA. Maikel Garcia and Nick Loftin have also shown ability to hit for high average. Then you got 3x power bats in Perez, Melendez, and Witt Jr. I don’t think they are going to have much issue hitting.
Pitching is the big question-mark. The team has been plagued by walks. Moves to reduce that include bringing in Jordon Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough. Resigning Greinke would help. Adding another Vet starter with a sub-3 BB9 would allow some of the Royals homegrowns to pitch from the pen (Bubic, Keller, Kowar) where their limited arsenals might prove more effective. I’ve argued they should try to unload the Dozier deal by taking on the Bumgarner deal – but that would require Arizona to be interested in what could be offered with Dozier – such as Scott Barlow.
Lopez and Dozier will probably be the only ones sticking around by September. Dozier will probably be DFA’d before the start of 2024. The Royals aren’t contending until 2025 at the earliest, and I don’t think any of these players are in their long term plans.
That’s an expensive DFA for the Royals. Dozier is owed 7.5 this season and 9.25 in 2024. When the Royals DFA’d Infante, it hand-cuffed the team for years.
I think they are more likely to look for a trade for a worse contract that benefits the team. This would likely be a veteran starter who got over-paid for past performance – like MadBum in Arizona or Jose Berrios in Toronto. Chris Sale is a major injury risk but could also work. Bum or Berrios would quickly take over the #2 spot in the line-up.
Yeah that’s why I don’t think they’ll do it until after this season, when it’s only the 9.25.
I do like the Dozier for Mad Bum trade proposition though!
Yea – we’re not trying to win it all in 2023 – but looking to 2024-2025. Unloading that Dozier contract vs. eating it is key to them putting a winning team on the field in 2024. They aren’t a team that can afford to have 9 million in wasted cash and think they will be competitive. For that to work, they need someone willing to provide some over-priced value in exchange for a 2 for one – or 3 for one. I thiink any of Barlow, Melendez, or Pratto would be enough for a trade partner to pull the trigger on Dozier’s contract. Both Pratto and Melendez have big holes in their games that don’t lend themselves to being long term Royals (ala Wil Meyers) and could be packaged with Dozier to the right team.
I wouldn’t mind having Scott Barlow on the Cardinals
You can’t simply explain away a horrible hitter hitting for a 300 average over 565 ab by using BABIP. Could he have been having the season of his life which he will never repeat? Possibly. But implying he want from awful to respectable all because of “luck” is ridiculous. There is only so much ” luck” one can have in nearly 600 at bars.
A tip: do as many trades as possible with the Red Sox.
Scott Barlow would be a perfect fit for the Dbacks Bullpen.
I’ve pitched Dozier + Barlow for MadBum as a possible trade. MadBum would immediately move into the #2 spot in the line-up. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks get the closer they need and Dozier is a much cheaper player they could salary dump or DFA.
I like that one, especially considering moving Madbum opens another spot for a prospect to get a chance to shine in the rotation
If you’re going to start a sentence with the word and, you don’t need a comma after it.
And, what’s your point?
That you and the writer don’t understand how to use commas. Unlike you, he’s a pro. He and his editor should fix these recurring issues.
Jays sure could use Barlow in the 7th or 8th, maybe close if Romano gets hurt
Rumor is Royals trade Singer,Pratto,Zerpa and Lopez for Reynolds of the Pirates.
Then Salvador Perez and Barlow going to Mets for Baty and their top catching prospect. Pretty much guarantees Mets a pennant. Mets have another top 5 catching prospect already.
If both deals are done, with salary limited royals having little money they resign Grienke and send feelers out on signing Bauer.
What sources are saying this? They can’t be anonymous sources. It makes no sense to give up controllable guys for a win-nlw guy.
No sources. Picollo was just quoted yesterday as wanting to give Waters LF and Isbel CF as much field time as possible. He’s got Nick Loftin in AAA waiting for a spot and Olivares slotted in at RF with Nate Eaton as his Utility OF / 3B. They have no reason to add an OF like Reynolds.
Lopez seems a bit pricey for WSox in that it’s 3.7mil for what little offense he brings…..PLUS arb raises each of next 2yrs for a defense bench type guy. They are cash strapped as it is with several player contracts costing more than their contributions on the field. They’d have to dump Leury Garcia on somebody.
Garcia is best used as a super utility, he’s just not someone you want to give 500 AB’s to.
Rsox;
The great thing about Garcia as a super utility guy is that he can bungle plays in both the infield and outfield.
Was born to play for the White Sox.
Lopez to the White Sox, Barlow to the Guardians and sit back and watch as you battle the Tigers for last place
News flash. Tigers will finish at .500 this year and playoffs next year. Get used to the basement KC 😉 Hope springs eternal
Pretty sure every time I saw Staumont, he was filthy. Obviously wasnt at a full 100 pct but other teams would love to have an arm like that
Wouldn’t mind if the White Sox got Nicky Lopez and Scott Barlow. Lopez is a lefty bat with adequate defense, a slight improvement over Josh Harrison. Barlow would fill the void of a closer. Liam is going to out a while, obviously.
Lopez is terrible…Harrison was better than he was last year.
I sure would love for the Marlins to get in on Barlow.
They are all controllable including Reynolds
Usually WAR metrics are sky high for great defense. Nicky Lopez is negative war last year. I was expecting to see 3 war just based on other elite defenders with no bat.
Nevermind. Hes like 40% below average last year hitting. Damn
I took an interest in the Royals a couple of years ago and since then..
They have averaged 64 wins since 2018 (not counting 2020).
️ Wasted Doziers once promising career by surrounding him with Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Ryan Ohearn and Kalvin Gutierrez.
Salvador Perez deserves(d) better than being ran into the ground as a catcher and forced to carry the weight of the offense.
Carlos Santana deserves some credit for Kansas City ranking fifth in the American League with 1,287 strike outs…I’m glad he was able to contribute something.
Pitching: How about Jakobie Junis, Singer, Duffy, Harvey, Bubic, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana and everyone else contributing….
️ 426 loses as a pitching staff
️ A 4.83ERA
️ 3.7BB/9
️ 2,522 walks
Since 2018
“Dozier’s promising career.” I snorted my coffee.
If the White Pox checked in on Nicky Lopez, for heaven’s sake get a deal done. He costs plenty and that’s a roster spot for nearly half a dozen guys on the 40 man that need occasional looks.
If Matt Barnes is healthy, I’d offer Hunter Dozier straifght up/no cash. Unless I’m missing something, you’re not getting a prospect for Dozier without including one back. Barnes could have some value and overall the Royals would save about $8M. Boston could spread out the $17M over two seasons and maybe divert some of the cap hit.
If I was GM, I’d be looking to move Melendez, Pratto, Dozier, and Barlow. I believe Melendez and Pratto are going to wind up being Dozier retreads and Dozier is a negative value player. Barlow is a positive value player at a longevity challenged position – so if we’re not going to compete today, we should flip him for someone who can contribute later … Or an innings eater for now.