On the heels of baseball’s $700MM man making his decision, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Fallout of Ohtani’s decision:
Shohei Ohtani is set to become a Dodger on a record-shattering $700MM deal. With the biggest question of the offseason answered, there’s plenty of ripple effects that will impact the remainder of the offseason. It’s not yet clear whether Ohtani has undergone a physical and his contract with the Dodgers has been finalized, and L.A. will need to clear a spot on its 40-man roster to accommodate the addition of Ohtani once those final steps have happened. Looking beyond the Dodgers, the teams that missed out on Ohtani — the Blue Jays, Angels, Cubs, and Giants are among the teams that were involved in the bidding process — will need to look elsewhere as they attempt to improve ahead of next season. That could allow the markets for other top players, such as center fielder Cody Bellinger, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and left-hander Blake Snell, to come into focus over the coming days.
2. When will the rumored Dodgers-Yankees deal be completed?
An unusual report surfaced yesterday, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal indicating that the Dodgers and Yankees were working on a trade that would send two players on L.A.’s 40-man roster to the Yankees in exchange for a prospect in the Yankees organization who is not on the 40-man. The deal would clear the aforementioned roster spot needed to finalize Ohtani’s contract while also making room for right-hander Joe Kelly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post heard the same, adding that the Yankees will pick up an “end of roster pitcher” who could provide depth lost by the inclusion of depth arms Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito in the Juan Soto trade while also adding an additional prospect. It seems likely that the specifics of the deal should be available in the near future.
3. Could the relief market be picking up?
Yesterday saw a pair of veteran free agent southpaws come off the board as left-hander Andrew Chafin reunited with the Tigers in Detroit while Will Smith rejoined the team for whom he made his major league debut in Kansas City. With those two arms off the board, will the relief market continue to heat up? Closer Josh Hader headlines the class, while flamethrowing 27-year-old Jordan Hicks, breakout righty Robert Stephenson and NPB relief ace Yuki Matsui are among the other notable names who’ve yet to sign. The Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, and Rangers are among the many teams known to be searching for relief help at this point in the offseason.
Someone brought up an interesting point.
Last year apparently mlb was prepared to step in and veto judges 14 year 400-415 mill contract from the Padres cause ” The league’s justification for doing so would’ve been the contract length was an artificial means for the team of working around the competitive balance tax.”
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/latest-on-padres-pursui…
So why isn’t the mlb stepping in to potentially veto the ohtani deal or any other deals dodgers sign that push significant deferred money into the future? And whyd mlb suddenly care Padres were doing deferred money cause it’s been used for years with the likes of Griffey, Ichiro I believe, Scherzer
Mlb has a lot of explaining to do.
I’ve never been a spoiler.
I feel that the Cubs were always only in it if he agreed to a shorter-term deal or one with an early opt-out. I’m sure they wouldn’t go past 500M anyway, so not making any moves is really discouraging to me. The signing of Counsell appeared to be an “all-in” move. but now I wonder. They need a good lefty in the pen as well as another high leverage arm. They also need a frontline staring pitcher, and 3B & 1B help. At least one of those bats have to fill the big hole left by Belli. A lot of work to do with stiff competition and their reluctance to go big is hurting them.
I’m not a Cubs fan obviously but missing out on Ohtani isn’t something that should make you doubt they are all in. It is definitely possible they won’t spend big but I just feel that this particular miss shouldn’t be held against them.
I think the biggest mistake the Cubs are making is nibbling around the trade market. Sometimes I feel like the Cubs get hyper focused on one domino that never falls and it typically involves a trade.
I think this year, they are trying to trade Morel for an impact bat but no team is biting. It just reminds me so much of when they spent the entire off-season trying to move Bryant for ML ready talent instead of trying to clear easier contracts like Chatwood (salary dump) and Quintana.
1. But, given inflation, he’s not actually getting $700M, so that’s disappointing. I think he should have asked for $1.5B so that it probably works out to $700M in the future.
2. Once Ohtani signs officially with the Dodges and is traded to the Yankees.
3. Hopefully. SPs are overpriced and only last 4 innings of work. Not really worth the billions of dollars being spend on them. Given the league SIERA is 4.24, it’s pretty poor pitching performance. Imaging giving up half a run each inning. Need better SPs actually doing their job of getting guys OUT.. SIERA should be down around 1.00.
That’s why the total is 700 million. It’s because of all the Deferred money.
Actual top bid was probably what was first reported, high fives maybe 600 million dollars.
Dodgers said we need a little help here.., we’ll make it 700 if you defer a bunch of $$.
Negative it was Ohtani who approached the Dodgers about deferring significant amount of money
Really? Okay good info. But I guess it works out to be the same thing. It depends on who asked for 700 million? If it was Ohtani and he also suggested deferred money, then really it’s the same thing. “What, you want 700 million, then we need a little help. Deferred $$? Ok great.”
I know your comment about trading to Yankees is a joke but has anyone heard if there’s any No Trade language in the contract?
All deferred money is going to come with interest. Depending on the % they settle upon (it won’t be lower than 8%), that’s a windfall for Ohtani and his family.
An ultra high net worth individual like Ohtani should have investment opportunities at his disposal that clear the 8% threshold.
Hedge Funds and alternative investments are available to those kinds of high net worth individuals. He left something on the table with deferrals to help his club.
Also, how are you sure about the deferral rate?
If they’re deferring payments out at 8% that’s going to keep the AAV high despite the deferments. If they’re interest free or low interest deferrals—that’s what will bring that AAV down.
The deferrals not counting against the tax is absolutely absurd. Should not work like that. Deferrals are absolutely fine 700M is a ton of money to pay out in a 10 year contract. Just those deferrals should not ease luxury tax penalties. That’s a broken system.
@Jake Biggar
Small market teams should be using it as well. Sign a guy to 15 years and defer the payments. Why not?
“That’s a broken system”. Why is the system broken? Because you say so?..There’s usually a peanut gallery of people calling owners “cheap” when they don’t offer a pile of money to every slightly above average player in town. And now, it seems people are complaining that owners are offering too MUCH money to a player. It seems unhappy people will be complaining no matter what owners do, right?
“It seems unhappy people will be complaining no matter what . . .”
Lol, have you ever been to an MLBTR Red Sox column?
LOL !!!!!! Green, exactly !!!!
@GreenMonsta
Red Sox are terrible. They’re owner is spending like they’re a top team but getting Jokeland Athletic results. They’re trying to be like the Rays without the analytics and player development.
it is, because it’s circumventing the nature of the rule. 10/700 should count for all 700 over 10 years and not beyond. These rules were created to help the small market teams that don’t have the ability to pay these salaries – competitive balance, This approach completely goes around the rule.
Let’s say you get paid $100k per year. Suppose your employer says fine, but I am going to give you $50k this year, and $50k ten years from now. Do you feel like you are still getting $100k?
Will Smith signed with Kansas City. That makes them 2024 World Series champions, as is tradition now since he’s won with the Braves in 2021, Astros in 2022 and Rangers in 2023.
@acoss13
Given the new playoff system, and how top teams really don’t make it to the WS too often (aside from Astros), I wouldn’t be surprised that KC is playing in the WS. Sure, the Braves, Dodgers and O’s can celebrate their 162 win seasons but ultimately, they won’t be in the finals.
Or, it means that whichever team the Royals trade him to next July, will be the World Series champions.
$700 million is a vulgar amount of money, no matter who commands such a salary. It’s amazing the wealth the Dodgers seem to possess. Not only did they sign Ohtani, but they allowed JD Martinez to become a free agent. Martinez hit .271 with 33 homers and 103 RBIs in 2023. Sure, he’s 36 and not gifted defensively, but he can still rake and he only made $10 million last season. An ideal spot for him to sign would be the Phillies. They need to add a moderately priced right handed slugger to their lineup, and Dave Dombrowski is familiar with Martinez who previously played for the Red Sox.
Bingo this is what reeks about this deal as Martinez put up amazing numbers for $10 million so if Ohtani puts up .275/44/105 is the extra 13 Hrs really worth freaking $70 million per yr! Sorry this was the stupidest contract ever and its going to bite Dodgers in the ass paying a DH that kind of money as the success rate coming back strong after 2 – TJ surgeries is not very good let alone as a 2 way player that only adds to more wear and tear. Im happy for the kid but these contracts are so out of hand mlb owners should lock these clowns out next contract and hold out for 1-2 yrs to break the union. We need more balance so all 30 teams can play on even level and not cost $500-800 for family of 4 to see a stupid baseball game!
Time for MLB to start salary caps. It’s difficult to understand the parity in one team paying one player more than another team pays its entire starting lineup.
Did you know that the LAD have only the 5th highest payroll, even after adding Ohtani?
Joe, The Dodgers will defer $68 million of Ohtani’s $70 million yearly salary, which means Ohtani will make $2 million a year while he’s playing, but a fortune when he retires. I know deferring salaries is nothing new to baseball, but this gives the Dodgers a massive financial edge for the next decade.
Everyone can do the same thing. I’m just surprised he took this low a package.
Joe, Every team may be able to do the same thing, but $10 million over 10 years is a lot different than $680 million over any number of years.
The Reds SHOULD be searching for relief help with a bunch of five inning starters, especially since they are unable or unwilling to get starters who give you innings.
Well since the pitching market is now just starting to open up what makes you think they are not looking for RP or SP? They already signed two pitchers, one relief and one starter who could turn out to be a RP so not sure what you are complaining about.
Get back to me at the end of the offseason like every other.
It’s 70 million a year, it should be counted as 70 million a year
“Should be counted as 70”..Accountants have been rigging the system for billionaires and massaging the figures for my whole lifetime. It’s not exactly a new concept. It’s done on tax filings every year without much complaint.
its more like 35million if you include the horrific California taxes
Swagsuper, you spelled United States wrong.
Yes California income taxes are high but property tax is low. That’s the shock of people moving out and to states such as texas. 1% property tax Prop 13 suddenly becomes 3 or 3.5% property tax.
Same thing in florida. Have you seen the property insurance premiums lately? Tripling and quadrupling.
So for the ball player it really doesn’t matter where you sign, whether California, Texas, Florida or New York. All works out to be about 50% tax no matter how you cut it.
If you’re worried about taxes move to Mississippi. You’ll love the education system there. And the roads. And the healthcare system.
For all the criticism Ohtani received for not publicizing his decision to promote baseball, his decision on Saturday totally overshadowed the NBA Cup Final.
Let’s not pretend anyone cared about that in the first place.
Does the NBA have a “cup”? I haven’t followed them in a long time, but I thought the NHL was the only sport with a “cup”.
First time they held this, an in-season tournament. A big success by all accounts.
Wrong Will Smith link
The Giants are going to massively overpay for at least two top free agents to make sure they come away with something. They probably don’t care who the players are at this point
Meanwhile, the Angels are still drinking.
Just a horrible start to FA off-season ; Rich conglomerates Yankees & Dodgers throw fool weight & money around, raising costs on fans everywhere; rest of league left to piddle away slimmer pool of revenue (thanks to dwindling TV rights lucre) at inflated placeholders. Sure, Yamamoto looks interesting but which deep pocket team gets him, and how much will it cost for a hot dog — $15 now?
The thing that makes this country great is that no one forcing you to pay $15 for the hot dog.
Somewhere Bobby Bonilla is laughing and counting his deferred ca-ching $$!!
i believe that’s done this year! look for him to show up in some media box
My take is Ohtani is no way worth the contract he was awarded. Six years with Angels and they never won more than 80 games in any year.
I’m looking forward to April 26-28, when the Dodgers visit Toronto.