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A’s Claim Anthony Kay

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The A’s announced they’ve claimed lefty reliever Anthony Kay off waivers from the Mets. New York had attempted to outright him off the 40-man roster last week.

Kay, a UCONN product, was selected by the Mets with the #31 pick in the 2016 draft. The Mets sent him to the Blue Jays as part of the Marcus Stroman deal. Kay pitched parts of four seasons with the Jays, working to a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 innings. Toronto lost him on waivers to the Cubs last offseason.

While Chicago quickly ran Kay through waivers themselves, they added him back to the roster in mid-June. He pitched 13 times for the Cubs, allowing eight runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Mets snagged him back via waivers with a couple weeks left in the season. He made four appearances with his original organization, working 3 2/3 frames of three-run ball to close the year. Kay’s fastball sat just under 95 MPH on average, yet he managed just an 11:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio between the two clubs.

The 28-year-old has yet to find much major league success. He has allowed 5.67 earned runs per nine, striking out an average 22.4% of batters faced against a lofty 12% walk rate. Kay showed some intriguing swing-and-miss numbers in Triple-A this year, combining for a 3.76 ERA while fanning over a third of opponents in 40 2/3 frames. While a 13.3% walk percentage still hints at real control woes, the solid minor league season and his decent velocity intrigued the A’s front office.

Kay is out of options, so the A’s can’t send him to the minors without first running him through waivers (at which point he’d have the ability to elect free agency). If they keep him on the 40-man roster all offseason, he’d need to secure a job in the MLB bullpen.

NL Central Notes: Molina, Cardinals, Marlins, Kelly, Pirates

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With Yadier Molina and the Cardinals in talks about a coaching job for the longtime catcher, Molina discussed the situation in an interview with 550 KTRS radio (hat tip to Luis Nolla of KTRS for the partial transcript).  “I think there is something cooking with St. Louis,” Molina said, estimating “a 90 percent chance that it happens.”  After retiring following the 2022 season, Molina revealed that he had offers for some kind of coaching roles from both the Cardinals last year and from the Marlins.

In terms of his coaching future in general, Molina said “I see myself managing, coaching in the United States for a few years.  I like it.  I am a guy that is fascinated with baseball, and I am passionate about it.  To have an opportunity like that I cannot pass….St. Louis has given me the opportunity.  It is my second home.  There is always a good relationship and communication with them.  They are trying to guide me to that way, in the matter of being a coach.  They have their staff who have a good job with the team.  It would be an opportunity that it will be hard to say no to.  I love St. Louis.”

More from the NL Central…

  • In other Cardinals news, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covered a wide slate of questions related to the Cards in his recent chat with readers, including the possibility of Jordan Hicks and Phil Maton being free agents targets for the team this winter.  The Cardinals traded Hicks to the Blue Jays at the deadline, but with Hicks headed back to the open market, “there will be a conversation about a reunion” in St. Louis, Goold writes.  Maton could also be “a name to watch,” both due to his ability and perhaps due to some local ties, as Maton went to high school about 90 minutes away from St. Louis in Chatham, Illinois.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Cubs will retain Dustin Kelly as their chief hitting coach next season, according to Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Chicago’s lineup made big improvements in 2023, Kelly’s first season on the staff, and his presence might help stop what has been a revolving door of Cubs hitting coaches over the last decade.  Sharma/Mooney provide some insight into how Kelly and his three assistant coaches were able to provide more specialized instruction to hitters, keeping communication strong while trying to marry a batter’s personal style to a broader approach.  “We come up with team principles that we want to execute.  But they still have to go up there and have their at-bat and stick to their strengths,” Kelly said back in September.
  • The Pirates are still planning to give Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis regular reps at catcher next season, though Davis barely saw any time behind the plate after making his MLB debut last season, instead playing mostly as a right fielder.  With some lack of clarity of how the playing time will be split up, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines that the Pirates should just keep Rodriguez at catcher and Davis in right field, as both players might benefit from a clear focus on one position.  Rodriguez spent some time as a first baseman, second baseman, and outfielder in the minors, while Davis’ right field defense was shaky enough that he’ll likely need more offseason work to make himself a passable option at the position.

Thad Levine No Longer A Candidate In Red Sox Front Office Search

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As the Red Sox continue their search for a new head of baseball operations, Twins general manager Thad Levine is no longer in the running, according to Jeremy Nygaard of Twins Daily.  Levine was told yesterday by the Sox that he was no longer a candidate, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports (via X).

The news comes as the Red Sox have apparently taken a next step in their selection process, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that club has moved onto a second round of interviews.  Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow is believed to have advanced to this second round, though it isn’t known how many other candidates might also be getting a second sitdown with team brass.  As per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings, “information is spotty” on the situation, but Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero and Breslow could both still be candidates.  Four other candidates known to have sat down for an initial interview remain in the process for now — Red Sox assistant GM Michael Groopman, Red Sox VP of player development/scouting Paul Toboni, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, and former Phillies/Giants manager Gabe Kapler.

The 51-year-old Levine has been Minnesota’s GM since the 2016-17 offseason, working as the top lieutenant to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey (who turned down an interview offer from the Red Sox).  Levine has over two decades’ worth of experience working in the front offices of the Twins, Rangers, Rockies, and Dodgers, though he hasn’t yet gotten the chance to call the shots in a baseball operations department.  There have been a couple of close calls, however, as the Rockies and Phillies considered Levine for their most recent GM openings were respectively filled by Bill Schmidt and Dave Dombrowski.

Falvey, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Sam Fuld, Brandon Gomes, and Mike Hazen are among the prominent executives who have declined to interview for the Red Sox job, yet it appears as though the club is satisfied enough with its current list of candidates to progress into what might be a final stage of the hiring process.  Breslow may or may not be the frontrunner, as reports have indicated that the Sox definitely see him as a candidate for some kind of front office role, if perhaps a GM working under a president of baseball operations moreso than a PBO himself.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees’ 82-80 record kept the club’s streak of winning seasons alive, but that was small consolation within a very disappointing season in the Bronx.  Some manner of unspecified changes seem to be coming within the organization, yet GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone look to be returning, as the Yankees will try to figure how (or how much) to build around an incoming wave of young talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, OF: $320MM through 2031
  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $180MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, but Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Carlos Rodon, SP: $135MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $128MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins paying $30MM of Stanton’s salary as per the terms of December 2017 trade)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $45MM through 2026
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $6MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2025)
  • Tommy Kahnle, RP: $5.75MM through 2024

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $161.25MM
Total future commitments: $856.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

2016 was the Yankees’ last season out of the playoffs, so it is perhaps instructive to look at how Cashman responded after that last setback.  Re-signing Aroldis Chapman and trading for Brian McCann were the two biggest moves of a relatively quiet (by Yankees standards) 2016-17 offseason, yet the club was able to rebound and reach Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS, as New York was revived by the “Baby Bombers” group that included Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Gary Sanchez.

The Yankees would undoubtedly love to see another youth movement blossom in 2024, especially with so much promising young talent already debuting in the big leagues.  Anthony Volpe spent 2023 as New York’s everyday shortstop, Oswald Peraza got a bit more playing time than in 2022, and Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Jasson Dominguez all made their Major League debuts.  Even with Dominguez out until roughly the All-Star break due to Tommy John surgery, there is plenty of optimism that at least a couple of these highly-touted youngsters can break out in 2024.

That said, it isn’t the Yankees’ style to take a step back for a development year.  The club finds itself in the tough spot of wanting or needing to find playing time for these rookies, yet also definitely needing to make a strong return to contention.  It doesn’t appear as though managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner is yet considering firing Cashman, but for Boone, 2024 is the last guaranteed year of his contract, so the manager could be on the hot seat unless the Yankees at least make it back into the postseason.

For all of these bigger-picture issues facing the Yankees, their offseason plan is perhaps pretty simple — improve the offense.  New York finished within the bottom seven of the league in total runs, OPS, OBP, batting average, and were persistently undone by an inability to get hits with runners in scoring position.  Losing Judge to a torn toe ligament for close to seven weeks didn’t help, but almost all of New York’s other hitters had down years.  Judge (174), Gleyber Torres (123), and the lightly-used Dominguez and Greg Allen were the only Yankees hitters to post even a 102 wRC+, as DJ LeMahieu was the next best of the group with a slightly above-average 101 total.

In the most optimistic of views, getting healthy seasons from Judge and Anthony Rizzo, some level of bounce-back from LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, and that aforementioned breakout from one or two of the rookies could greatly improve the lineup without even any outside upgrades.  But, that is asking a lot from inexperienced players, and it might be that LeMahieu and Stanton won’t ever regain their prime form.  Given the lingering effects of Rizzo’s post-concussion syndrome, it also shouldn’t be assumed that Rizzo will suddenly be an All-Star again even with an offseason of recovery.

To some extent, the rookie crop can be a hedge against the veterans’ chances of a comeback season.  LeMahieu and Peraza could be involved in a timeshare at third base, LeMahieu could likewise get some first base time along with Rizzo, and Pereira’s ability to become an everyday left fielder could keep Stanton firmly in a DH-only role, which may be for the best at this stage of his career.

Could a trade clear some room?  Stanton’s salary and his no-trade clause make him among the most immovable players in baseball, so the Yankees would have to eat virtually all of his contract to accommodate a deal, even if Stanton did agree to a move.  LeMahieu is also a tough sell in trade talks, given the $45MM left on his contract and his own no-trade protection due to his 10-and-5 status.  Rizzo is perhaps the easiest of the trio to move since he is only under contract through the 2024 season, yet the Yankees would be selling low given the unknowns of his injury situation, and they’d be losing one of the few left-handed bats from their heavily righty-leaning lineup.

Trading Torres would also seem counter-productive, as he was the team’s second-best hitter in 2023.  Moving Torres would both open up a natural middle infield spot for Peraza (or Volpe, if he was moved to second base and Peraza took over shortstop) and it would save some money, as Torres is projected for a huge arbitration raise to $15.3MM.  While the Yankees generally don’t pursue extensions as a club policy, there hasn’t been any indication that Torres is in the team’s plans beyond 2024, which is the second baseman’s final year of arbitration eligibility prior to free agency.  Still, the Yankees might be content to just let Torres walk in free agency rather than trade him this winter and create another question mark in the lineup.

When it comes to discussing Torres’ arbitration number or the possibility of eating money on contracts, it is fair to remember that this is still the New York Yankees we’re talking about.  As much as Bronx fans might consider the team to be more conservative spenders than they were in the George Steinbrenner era, the Yankees still had baseball’s second-highest payroll in 2023.  While far too much of that payroll went towards non-productive players, a case could certainly be made that the Bombers could address their offensive woes by splurging on some of the offseason’s top free agent bats.

For instance, releasing Stanton and absorbing his contract entirely might be an easier pill to swallow for the organization if it created DH space for a generational talent like Shohei Ohtani.  Rather than entrust third base to LeMahieu and Peraza, the Yankees could sign one of Jeimer Candelario or Matt Chapman, which might then create more flexibility to trade Torres to alleviate an infield logjam.

In terms of a perfect fit for New York’s needs, Cody Bellinger checks a lot of boxes.  The former NL MVP is a left-handed hitter who could either play center field until Dominguez is healthy, split time at first base with Rizzo, or move into left field if both Dominguez and Rizzo are healthy, thus upgrading the lineup both offensively and defensively.  The Yankees had interest in Bellinger when he was a free agent last season, though that was back when he was seeking a one-year contract, not the multi-year megadeal he’ll surely command this winter.

If not Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier or Jason Heyward could also fit as much less-expensive outfield options who are more than capable in center field.  If the Yankees wanted a left field-specific player on a one-year deal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Conforto, or a number of other options could emerge on the free agent or trade market.  Such an acquisition would perhaps limit Pereira to part-time duty, though Pereira did little to prove himself ready of a larger role given his .427 OPS over his first 103 plate appearances in the majors.  Acquiring a left-handed hitting outfielder would both help balance the lineup, and also create a platoon opportunity for the right-handed hitting Pereira.

As always, the Yankees figure to at least check in on virtually every top free agent due to their financial resources, and Cashman will also explore his options on the trade front.  As much as New York prizes its upcoming wave of prospects, a non-playoff year could make Cashman a little more aggressive in dealing from that depth for a win-now piece or two.  The Yankees figure to prioritize only trade targets with multiple years of control if they were to discuss Pereira, Volpe, or Peraza in any negotiations, unless a high-level player (i.e. Juan Soto) was perhaps made available.

One plus of retaining the rookies is that, in theory, their potential can at least raise the talent floor of the Yankees’ bench.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a usefully versatile player who could fill a lot of holes around the diamond, yet his lack of offense means that he isn’t likely to be re-signed.  IKF is one of several part-timers that don’t figure to return in 2024, with most as likely non-tender candidates within New York’s gigantic arbitration class.  Of that group, one of Jose Trevino or (probably more likely) Kyle Higashioka figure to be non-tendered, with the other remaining on hand to share time with Wells behind the plate.

Between the probable non-tenders and the free agent departures, roughly $39MM will be coming off the Yankees’ books.  It’s not a huge amount, and it’ll get smaller given the arbitration raises to Torres, Clay Holmes, and others.  This leaves New York with a projected luxury tax number that is already over the $237MM threshold, yet as noted earlier, it isn’t as if the Yankees were going to cut back spending….especially not after a non-playoff season.

After all of this focus on how the Yankees can improve their hitting, the pitching side can’t be ignored, as Gerrit Cole’s brilliance helped paper over some larger concerns within the rotation.  Cole will again be the team’s ace, but Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes will be trying to rebound from injury-plagued seasons, and Clarke Schmidt and Michael King are still both relatively untested as starters (though both have looked quite good at times).  To add depth, the Yankees could consider a reunion with Luis Severino or Frankie Montas on low-cost deals, though either pitcher might prefer for a fresh start with a club that provide a clearer path to rotation work.

Rodon’s struggles in his first year in the Bronx could make the Bombers a little wary about immediately signing another starter to a pricey long-term contract, yet this could still be an option this winter.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been heavily scouted by the Yankees and many other teams, and could be the most realistic top-tier pitching option for New York to pursue because Yamamoto is only 25 and might not even be in his prime years.  If the Yankees wanted to make a shorter-term upgrade for the front of the rotation, such arms as the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes or the Guardians’ Shane Bieber are free agents after 2024, but would naturally still some at a significant trade cost.

New York’s bullpen flew somewhat under the radar as one of the better relief units in baseball, so the Yankees could be in good shape since most of the relievers will be coming back.  Pitching coach Matt Blake and bullpen coach Mike Harkey have shown a knack for getting strong results out of a variety of pitchers (whether veterans, rookies, or unheralded acquisitions), so the Yankees don’t necessarily need any big-ticket additions to the relief corps.

Wandy Peralta posted good numbers despite some very shaky advanced metrics in 2023, and even if the Yankees pass on re-signing Peralta himself, they’ll likely seek out another southpaw to fill Peralta’s role.  Finding a replacement for King could be more difficult, as King was excellent in a multi-inning relief role last year but is going to be stretched out for a potential rotation job next year.  While King could always just return to the pen if his starting gig doesn’t work out, his value as a relief arm could be another reason for the Yankees to seek out a more seasoned starter over the winter.

For all of the ways the Yankees could be different on the field in 2024, it also seems apparent that some things need to happen behind the scenes.  Much was made earlier this month about an external audit the Yankees were planning as a top-to-bottom overview of the organization’s practices, but it remains to be seen if any changes made will translate to a return to the postseason.  Cashman’s job might not necessarily be on the line, yet the general manager is facing more public pressure than at any time during his long tenure running the Bombers’ front office.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Yankees-centric chat on 10-24-23 at 1:40pm CT. Click here to read the transcript.

The Opener: Rangers Triumph, Garver, NLCS Game 7

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Three items on the morning docket, including one half of the World Series matchup being finalized…

1. Rangers win the AL pennant:

The Rangers held a 3-0 lead after the first half-inning of Game 7, and an 8-2 lead after the top of the fourth.  Ergo, there ultimately wasn’t much drama as Texas vanquished the Astros by an 11-4 final in the deciding game of the American League Championship Series.  While many of the Rangers’ bats were cooking in the game, the club was led once again by Adolis Garcia, who went 4-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs.  Garcia captured ALCS MVP honors for hitting .357/.400/.893 with five homers and 15 RBI over 30 plate appearances in the seven games, setting a new MLB record for most RBI in a single postseason series.

The road team won all seven games in the unusual series, as the Rangers had to fight back from a 3-2 series deficit by winning both Games 6 and 7 in Houston.  Texas has to hope this road-team trend doesn’t continue, as the Rangers will now hold homefield advantage in the World Series over whichever team comes out of the National League.  The Rangers are 0-2 in their two previous trips to the Fall Classic (in 2010 and 2011), and are still looking for the first championship in franchise history.  As for the Astros, the disappointing loss might lead to some major change heading into 2024, as manager Dusty Baker has indicated that he might be retiring.

2. Mitch Garver’s status:

One downside for the Rangers was a possible injury to Mitch Garver, who was hit in the ribs by a Bryan Abreu pitch in the sixth inning. Garver was in obvious discomfort after the HBP but remained in the game and scored on Nathaniel Lowe’s home run, though he was replaced by a pinch-hitter in his next at-bat.  Garver seemed to be feeling okay when interviewing with Ben Verlander following the game, though the designated hitter underwent some x-rays.

There hasn’t yet been word on the outcome of those tests, but needless to say, there will be some nervousness in Arlington unless Garver is cleared for the World Series.  Acting as the Rangers’ regular DH throughout the playoffs, Garver has hit .294/.368/.529 with two homers in 38 PA, continuing his hot hitting from the regular season.

3. NLCS Game 7:

With one league champion decided, we get to enjoy some more nail-biting Game 7 action tonight when the Phillies host the Diamondbacks in the final game of the National League Championship Series.  Trailing 3-2 in the series heading into yesterday’s Game 6, the D’Backs stayed alive with a 5-1 victory, built on the strength of a three-run rally in second inning.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham each hit solo homers, and Ketel Marte continued his bid for NLCS MVP by going 2-for-5 for his fourth multi-hit game of the series.

Brandon Pfaadt (5 2/3 scoreless innings) and Ranger Suarez (5 1/3 shutout frames) each looked very sharp in Game 3 of the NLCS, and they’ll face off again as the scheduled starters for Game 7.  That said, both teams figure to have relatively quick hooks, as pretty much every pitcher on either roster will be available for some usage in the winner-take-all showdown.  On a historical note, this will be the first time in the Phillies’ 141-year franchise history that the club will play a Game 7 of a playoff series.

Dusty Baker Has Indicated Plan To Step Away From Managing

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The Astros’ season came to an end in disappointing fashion, as Houston dropped an 11-4 contest to the Rangers in Game 7 of the ALCS. That may also be Dusty Baker’s final game as a major league manager.

Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic report that Baker has recently told people within and outside the Houston organization that this would be his final season. The 74-year-old has not publicly announced his retirement. Asked about his plans postgame, Baker said he “doesn’t know” and “(hasn’t) had time to think about (his) future” (relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26).

Baker has been at the helm in Houston for four seasons. The Astros hired him going into 2020 in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal which led to A.J. Hinch’s dismissal. His stint in Houston has consisted of a series of one-year contracts. Baker first signed a one-year deal with a team option, which the club exercised. He subsequently inked one-year deals in the immediate aftermath of each of the past two seasons. Baker will be out of contract again this winter.

That run hasn’t been without controversy, particularly in 2022. Baker reportedly clashed with former general manager James Click, part of some organizational discord that led owner Jim Crane to move on from Click despite incredible on-field results. Reports indicated that Baker and Crane weren’t without their own disagreements, although the owner stuck with the longtime manager.

While one can quibble with any manager’s lineup or bullpen decisions, Houston’s results under Baker have been excellent. The team has advanced at least as far as the ALCS in all four seasons. While they were below .500 in the shortened 2020 regular season, they topped 90 wins while winning the AL West in all three full campaigns. The highlight, of course, was a 106-win showing in 2022 that culminated in the franchise’s second World Series title.

The Astros have gone 320-226 (58.6% win percentage) since the start of 2020. Baker’s clubs have won 54% of their regular season contests over his 26-year career. He has also been at the helm of the Giants, Cubs, Reds and Nationals since landing his first managerial job at age 44 in 1993. His 2,183 victories rank seventh in major league history, tops among active managers. Aside from Baker, Bruce Bochy and Terry Francona — all of whom have remained active through this year — everyone in the top 14 on the wins leaderboard has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. It seems only a matter of time before Baker joins that class, particularly since last year’s title (and third career pennant) checked the final box on his résumé.

Ghiroli and Rome suggest that Baker could look to stay involved in MLB while taking on a less demanding position, potentially in an advisory or special assistant capacity. If he steps away from managing, the Astros will become the fifth team with a vacancy.

Houston bench coach Joe Espada has gotten plenty of attention in managerial searches around the league over the past few years and has yet to land his first opportunity. While it’s far too early in the process for the Astros to have identified any kind of frontrunner, it stands to reason the club would consider Espada if they need to embark on a hiring process of their own.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Uncertainty seems to be the running theme of the Red Sox right now. Though they have World Series championships not too far in the rear-view mirror, recent seasons have seen them cut payroll and wind up in a middle ground between a rebuilding club and a frontline contender. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was recently fired and the search to find his replacement hasn’t yet shed light on which direction the franchise is heading.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $313.5MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $100MM through 2027 (includes buyout on 2028 club option; Story can opt-out after 2025 but club can negate that by picking up option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, OF: $72MM through 2027
  • Chris Sale, LHP: $27.5MM through 2024 (includes 2025 club option with no buyout)
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $16.75MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option; deal also has ’28 club option)
  • Kenley Jansen, RHP: $16MM through 2024
  • Justin Turner, IF: $13.4MM player option with $6.7MM buyout
  • Chris Martin, RHP: $7.5MM through 2024
  • Rob Refsnyder, OF: $1.85MM through 2024 (includes club option for 2025 with no buyout)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $129.1MM
Total future commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $555.1MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urías, McGuire

Free Agents

If there were an award for the least consistent club in the majors, the Red Sox would be in the running. In the past 20 years, they have four World Series championships, more than any other team. But they have also finished last in the American League East six times in that stretch, including each of the two most recent campaigns.

As mentioned up top, the recent skid cost Bloom his job, which means the first order of business is to figure out who makes the decisions now. Various high-profile names have taken themselves out of the running, such as Mike Hazen, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Derek Falvey, Sam Fuld and Brandon Gomes. Most of those executives have other commitments that would make it hard for them to consider a move to Boston, but it’s also been suggested that the appeal of the job might not be very high.

The higher-ups in Boston have given very short leashes to their executives recently. Ben Cherington was put in charge in October of 2011 but was replaced as the club’s baseball decision maker by Dave Dombrowski in August of 2015, despite the fact that the club had won the World Series in 2013. Dombrowski was then dismissed in 2019, even though he also brought a title to Boston the year prior, getting replaced by Bloom. With Bloom now out the door as well, it’s been quite a while since anyone has even lasted five years, despite the club’s many successes. It has also been suggested that the new hire won’t have much autonomy, with Álex Cora seemingly entrenched as manager and several other important jobs already filled.

It would be understandable if the gig weren’t viewed by everyone as a dream job, but there are only 30 of these to go around and there is still plenty of interest. Gabe Kapler, Craig Breslow, Thad Levine, Neal Huntington, Eddie Romero and Paul Groopman have been publicly reported to have been interviewed and it’s possible there are others who have sat down for a chat without it being leaked.

Once a hire is made, there will perhaps be more clarity on how the franchise envisions itself moving forward. But regardless of who eventually gets chosen, they will undoubtedly face challenges in improving the club’s chances going forward. The American League East doesn’t have weak spots, with each of the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays having made the playoffs in 2023. The Yankees were bit by the injury bug and finished fourth but they will certainly be aggressive in the hopes of putting this season behind them.

Whether a hire has been made by the start of the offseason, the front office will have some formalities to attend to. Both Corey Kluber and Joely Rodríguez are sure to have their options declined after injury-marred seasons in 2023. Justin Turner figures to opt out after another strong season at the plate. $13.4MM is a strong salary for a player his age but the $6.7MM buyout means he only needs to find another $6.7MM in free agency in order to break even. The Sox will miss his bat but will likely need the designated hitter spot for other guys.

How aggressive the Sox will be for 2024 is an open question and likely won’t be answered until the front office business is complete. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s payroll was one of the top five in the league for much of the century but they’ve dropped down since, settling at 12th place in 2023. Perhaps they will sign off on more spending after having reset their luxury tax status this year, but it also wouldn’t be a shock for a new exec to take a year to slow-play things and evaluate the franchise, an approach that is common.

When factoring in estimated arbitration salaries, Roster Resource pegs the club’s 2024 payroll around $167MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $187MM. Non-tendering depth infielder Luis Urías would knock those numbers down a few million, but the club isn’t too far from the $181MM payroll they had this year. They have a bit more room on the CBT side of things, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM, but it’s unclear if the club plans to spend up to or over that line.

The roster has its share of uncertainty, particularly on the pitching side of things. Chris Sale is coming off a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, as his 102 2/3 innings and 20 starts were more than he threw over 2020-2022 combined. But the results weren’t to his previous levels, with a 4.30 earned run average on the year. Perhaps he can fare better next year when he will be further from his injury struggles, but he will also turn 35 in March.

Nick Pivetta posted an ERA of 6.30 in his first eight starts and got bounced to the bullpen in May. He was able to get things back on track from there, with an ERA of 3.16 the rest of the way, finishing back in the rotation with a 4.04 ERA on the year overall. Brayan Bello made 13 appearances in 2022 but got a fuller audition in 2023, which resulted in some solid but not outstanding results. He registered a 4.24 ERA with a tepid 19.8% strikeout rate, though he limited walks and got heavy doses of ground balls.

Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Tanner Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Garrett Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.

Having six semi-plausible starting pitchers isn’t a terrible place to be in, but there isn’t much locked in, especially in the long-term. Sale is entering the final guaranteed year of his deal and Pivetta only has one arbitration season remaining. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Sox add someone here, though it might not be a top-of-the-market name, depending on where they plan to set payroll. Pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola are destined for nine-figure contracts, but the Sox could perhaps set their sights on arms like Sonny Gray or old friend Eduardo Rodriguez. Beyond them are veteran bounceback candidates like Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito.

The bullpen has a bit more clarity, with veterans Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each having another year remaining on their respective deals. Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Brennan Bernardino have shown promise to varying degrees and should have the inside track for jobs on next year’s club. That still leaves plenty of room for a free agent addition, though any investment here could be on the modest side with Jansen and Martin already giving the club strong high-leverage options. On the other hand, if the new front office decides to make 2024 a sort of evaluation year, maybe Jansen or Martin find themselves on the trade block.

On the position player side of things, the catcher position is probably the most wide open. The Sox gave plenty of runway for Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023, though neither of them took firm hold of the job. They each posted a matching wRC+ of 78 with so-so defensive grades. Wong was great with the running game but poor in terms of blocking and framing, whereas McGuire was generally middling across the board.

Investing in a veteran backstop and non-tendering McGuire would be sensible, though the free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Mitch Garver and Tom Murphy have strong bats but generally struggle to stay healthy. Austin Hedges and Martín Maldonado have strong reputations as defenders and pitching staff leaders but they’re both poor hitters. Gary Sánchez is arguably the best of the bunch but his half season in San Diego was strong enough that he may have played himself into a two-year deal. The trade route could feature unproven options like Joey Bart or Iván Herrera.

The infield is half set, with Rafael Devers having third base spoken for. He will likely require a move to first base at some point since his defense isn’t strong at the hot corner, but his offense continues to be excellent and he’s under contract for another decade. Whenever it’s time to move over to first, it could be a bit tricky since Triston Casas seems to have established himself over there. He has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot. But for the time being, it seems fair to expect them to stay on opposite corners.

The middle infield is far more up-in-the-air, with the investment in Trevor Story yet to pay dividends. He hit at a league-average level in 2022 and then required elbow surgery in the winter, not returning to the big leagues until August of 2023. The results were grim, as he struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances and didn’t do much impact when he put the ball in play. His wRC+ of 48 was one of the 10 worst in the majors, minimum 160 plate appearances, with mostly catchers and bench players around him on that list. The club has little choice but to hope that Story gets back on track, given the four years left on his deal.

As for his double play partner, that’s also a question. The club has taken chances on a number of light-hitting utility guys of late, with the list including Urías, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Hoy Park and Christian Arroyo. Of that group, only Reyes and Urías remain. The latter seems likely to be non-tendered after a rough season and Reyes is best suited for a bench/depth role. David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdéz are present as optionable depth options.

The club could certainly pursue middle infield help but the options there aren’t great either. Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier and Amed Rosario are arguably better second basemen than what the Sox currently have in-house, but each are coming off fairly unremarkable seasons.

In the outfield, Jarren Duran had a breakout season in 2023, with a .346 on-base percentage and 24 stolen bases. Even though his season was ended by toe surgery, he should be pencilled into the center field spot, at least as the strong side of a platoon. Alex Verdugo had another passable season, with offense around league average and strong defense. He figures to be in right field, though he also stands out as a possible trade candidate in his final arbitration season with a projected salary of $9.2MM. Masataka Yoshida showed some encouraging signs with his contact-heavy approach resulting in a 109 wRC+ in his first MLB season. The defense was poor, as was expected, though perhaps the Sox are comfortable using their small left field and the DH spot to diminish the effects of his glovework. Long-term, it’s not ideal to have three poor defenders battling for the DH position in Yoshida, Devers and Casas, but it’s semi-workable for now. Rob Refsnyder will be in the outfield mix as a short-side platoon guy.

Younger options could be pushing for time in that outfield mix this year, as each of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela got into 28 big league games this year. Abreu fared better in those, but it’s too small of a sample to draw broad conclusions from. Roman Anthony is considered by some to be a Top 100 talent and has reached Double-A, perhaps putting a 2024 debut on the table. Miguel Bleis is also a highly-regarded prospect but is further away.

There may be glimmers of hope for the farm to help out at other positions as well, with catcher Kyle Teel having just been selected 14th overall in the most recent draft. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is a consensus Top 100 guy and second baseman Nick Yorke has been on some of those lists as well. Each of those three got to Double-A in 2023 and won’t be too far from the majors.

Despite all the uncertainty, there are many things to like about this Boston club. They just went 78-84 in the toughest division in the league, with a run differential of -4. It would only take modest improvements to get them into contention for a playoff spot.

Perhaps a new hire would like to take a year to get more looks at young players like Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Yorke. There’s plenty of money coming off the books after 2024, with Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Verdugo all potential free agents. Maybe some of those guys end up getting moved this winter, freeing up roster space for younger guys. They need help at catcher and in the middle infield, but there aren’t obvious solutions available in free agency and the Sox have possible long-term solutions in the pipeline.

All things considered, the ship isn’t in terrible shape. But as of right now, it’s unclear who is steering it, which direction they’re going or how fast they’ll be allowed to head there. There’s plenty of fog on the horizon but perhaps things will clear up soon.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-centric chat on 10-24-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Tom Walker Passes Away

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Former major league reliever Tom Walker passed away today, per an announcement from the Pirates. He was 74.

“The Pirates are deeply saddened by the passing of Tom Walker,” the organization said in a statement. “Tom was a part of the Pirates local alumni group and was always looking to make an impact on others in the Pittsburgh community. Our thoughts and prayers are with the entire Walker family, including his wife Carolyn, daughter Carrie, and sons Matt, Sean and Neil, in addition to his son-in-law Don Kelly and the Kelly family.”

Walker, a Tampa native, never played in a regular season game for the Pirates. He was selected by the Orioles with the ninth overall pick in the 1968 draft. He topped out at Double-A in the Baltimore system before being selected by the Expos in the 1972 Rule 5 draft. Walker pitched three years in Montreal, keeping a sub-4.00 ERA in each season. He threw 74 2/3 innings as a rookie and topped 90 frames in each of the following two years.

After the 1974 campaign, the Expos traded him alongside catcher Terry Humphrey to the Tigers for starter Woodie Fryman. Walker logged a career-high 115 1/3 innings over 36 appearances (including nine starts) in Detroit. One year later, the Tigers sold his contract to the Cardinals. Walker pitched a season in St. Louis, then returned to Montreal as a free agent. He made 11 appearances as an Expo and closed his MLB career with one game for the Angels in 1977 after California claimed him on waivers. Walker signed with the Pirates for 1978 but didn’t make the MLB roster. He retired after eight games for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate.

While Walker didn’t take the mound in Pittsburgh, he was a longtime resident of the city and had strong family connections to the organization. Walker’s son Neil Walker played with the Bucs from 2009-15, spending the bulk of that time as Pittsburgh’s starting second baseman. Kelly has spent the past four seasons as Derek Shelton’s bench coach.

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