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Endy Rodriguez

Big Hype Prospects: Wood, Holliday, Williams, Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong

By Brad Johnson | January 20, 2023 at 8:23pm CDT

The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.

Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.

For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.

Five BHPs In The News

James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536

Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).

If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.

Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422

The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA

Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590

Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520

Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.

Five More

Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.

Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.

Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.

Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Endy Rodriguez Gavin Williams Jackson Holliday James Wood Pete Crow-Armstrong

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Pirates Announce Several Roster Moves

By Simon Hampton | November 15, 2022 at 5:29pm CDT

In advance of the Rule 5 draft deadline, the Pirates have announced they’ve selected the contracts of Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, Colin Selby and Jared Triolo to their 40-man roster. In corresponding moves, Tyler Heineman, Jeremy Beasley, Manny Banuelos and Junior Fernandez have all been designated for assignment. Their 40-man roster remains full.

Pittsburgh acquired Rodriguez from the Mets as part of the three-team trade centered around Joe Musgrove heading to San Diego. He’s powered through the minor leagues this past year, making it all the way to Triple-A by season’s end. Across three levels, he hit .323/.407/.590 with 25 home runs. He appeared mostly at catcher, but also logged some time in the corner outfield, and at first and second base in 2022. The 22-year-old was ranked in the top-100 prospects in the game by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, and given the Bucs’ lack of catching options on the major league depth chart, there appears a strong chance he makes it to the big leagues sometime in 2023.

Burrows landed fifth in Baseball America’s mid-season ranking of the Pittsburgh’s prospects. An eleventh round pick in 2018, Burrows spent half the year at Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A in June. In 12 starts at Double-A, Burrows had a 2.94 ERA, striking out batters 32.4% of the time and walking them 8.9% of the time. A big drop in strikeouts at Triple-A (down to 23.3%) largely accounted for his ERA spiking to 5.31 after his promotion, although his opponents BABIP also jumped about 40 points. Nonetheless, a couple of strong months at Triple-A to begin 2023 and it won’t be long before the 23-year-old finds his way to Pittsburgh.

Selby was a 16th round pick in 2018, and began his career as a starter before the Pirates shifted him to the bullpen last year. While the results weren’t particularly encouraging initially, he’s had a strong 2022 campaign at Double-A and made it to Triple-A briefly at the end of the season. In 32 2/3 innings at Double-A, Selby had a 29.7% strikeout rate against a 10.1% walk rate on the way to a 2.20 ERA. He only threw three innings at Triple-A, but should start there next season and could be a depth option for Pittsburgh’s bullpen next summer.

Triolo was picked up in the third round of the 2019 draft, and spent the entire 2022 campaign at Double-A. He hit a solid .282/.375/419, and as the line would suggest, posted a strong walk rate of 12.7% against a 17.6% strikeout rate. He’s predominantly a third baseman, but logged time at shortstop and center field in 2022. Given the presence of Ke’Bryan Hayes at third for the foreseeable future in Pittsburgh, it’s possible Triolo has a future as a utility man.

On the DFA side of things, only Heineman and Banuelos saw any meaningful time in the big leagues. Heineman appeared in 52 games at catcher, batting .211/.277/.254, while Banuelos threw 32 2/3 innings of 4.96 ERA ball after coming across from the Yankees mid-season. Fernandez only threw 3 1/3 innings for the Pirates, and Beasley only threw at their Triple-A affiliate.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Colin Selby Endy Rodriguez Jared Triolo Jeremy Beasley Junior Fernandez Manny Banuelos Mike Burrows Tyler Heineman

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Big Hype Prospects: Tovar, Flores, Rodriguez, Manzardo, Gentry

By Brad Johnson | September 23, 2022 at 6:25pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we use Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year awards as a lens to highlight a few guys who didn’t get enough love in this column.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AAA)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar wasn’t picked for the Rockies Player of the Year in what ultimately was a coin-flip situation with Adael Amador. However, we discussed Amador last week, and Tovar is set to make his debut today. After performing well in Double-A, Tovar compiled 23 successful plate appearances at Triple-A. He’ll get a brief trial to finish out 2022 while the club considers its long-term plans.

Scouting reports often start with Tovar’s defense which is universally well-regarded and should stand out in a post-extreme-shifts metagame. He relies far less on positioning than the many big-bodied shortstops around the league. As a hitter, he’s improved his quality of contact this season. There’s still concern he’ll be strikeout and soft contact prone early in his career as he further develops his plate discipline. His selectivity does seem to be trending in a positive direction.

A couple freely available reports such as this one from FanGraphs make mention of his hit tool as a carrying trait. Hit-tool-oriented prospects tend to have rocky developmental paths (no pun intended). At lower levels, they perform well against pitches outside of the zone which lends itself to an ineffective, swing-happy approach in the Majors. We’ll soon get a first look at how Tovar adjusts.

Wilmer Flores, 21, SP, DET (AA)
83.2 IP, 10.22 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 3.01 ERA

The latest pitcher to arise in the Tigers system, Flores squashed High-A hitters early in 2022 before moving on Double-A. Not to be confused with his brother, 10-year veteran infielder Wilmer Flores, Flores is a pitcher by the same name who relies on arm strength and a pair of power breaking balls. Reports mention poor command despite a low walk rate – an indication he’s throwing his stuff in the zone and letting hitters get themselves out. For a poor-command pitcher with plus stuff, there are worse ways to develop. This season, at least two notoriously errant relievers – Jose Alvarado and Felix Bautista – had breakouts by simply throwing more pitches in the strike zone.

Flores entered the season firmly considered a future reliever. His work this year, including maintaining velocity deep into outings, is beginning to change that perspective.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C/2B, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 138 PA, 8 HR, 1 SB, .356/.442/.678

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, TBR (AA)
122 PA, 5 HR, 1 SB, .323/.402/.576

A six-foot-one-inch first baseman, Manzardo will have to mash to earn his way to the Majors. Fortunately, he’s already doing so. He also finds himself in the right organization. The Rays are the only team to give the similarly height-deprived Ji-Man Choi a chance to find a role. Manzardo shows better potential to avoid strikeouts than Choi while maintaining comparable plate discipline. Including High-A, his 22 home runs in 397 plate appearances represent an improvement on preseason scouting reports that suggested he had below-average power. Manzardo, a left-handed hitter, skews slightly to fly ball contact. Depending on the development of his power, he could become a premium first baseman or else struggle with low BABIPs at the upper levels. The early returns suggest the first outcome is likelier.

Tyler Gentry, 23, OF, KC (AA)
331 PA, 16 HR, 8 SB, .321/.417/.555

The Royals were perhaps held back by the sheer volume of prospects they promoted to the Majors this season. That also means there’s room for new names to ascend, like Gentry. A well-rounded hitter, Gentry thrived in 152 High-A plate appearances before ascending to Double-A where he continued to excel. Per Baseball America, he credits a simplified approach and load with his offensive breakout – not that he wasn’t already a well-regarded hitter entering the season. The knock on him is his defense. He’s a corner outfielder who isn’t known for particularly good jumps. It’s a profile that requires a big bat to work in the Majors. While he doesn’t have a single carrying trait as a hitter, the entire profile plays up thanks to plus discipline and a knack for barreled contact. Keep an eye on his BABIPs next season.

Five More

Taylor Dollard, SEA (23): The Mariners graduated Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. Matt Brash joined the bullpen, Emerson Hancock had a down season, and Noelvi Marte was exported to Cincinnati. Dollard steps in as a candidate for the top spot in the Seattle system on a pitchability basis. The right-hander limits walks (1.94 BB/9) and can induce plenty of whiffs when needed. He mostly pitches to contact, making him a potential future innings-eater on track to debut next season.

Louie Varland, MIN (24): Making his third big league start as I write, Varland pitched ably in 20 Double-A appearances before an impressive four-game stint in Triple-A. While he’s not a physical specimen and lacks the mutant velocity associated with most of today’s pitching prospects, Varland does possess a four-pitch repertoire of average offerings. He’s able to mix and match in a way that should, eventually, keep big league hitters off balance. He’ll probably toss his share of clunkers along the way.

Jeremy De La Rosa, WSH (20): A left-handed hitting center fielder with defensive chops, De La Rosa performed well as an age-appropriate position player at Low-A. A promotion to High-A didn’t slow his base thievery, but it did render his bat impotent (53 wRC+). De La Rosa seems poised for a slow-burn developmental path. Defense all but assures an eventual Major League arrival while a high strikeout rate could render him a long-term backup.

Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (22): A five-foot-eight-inch utility man, Rafaela hit for surprising power across two levels this season. He’s an aggressive hacker with plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, traits that could be exploited in the upper levels. This season, he managed 21 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 524 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He turned 22 five days ago.

Colson Montgomery, CWS (20): Montgomery started slow and didn’t impress in several looks I took this season. However, the composite stats show promise from the multi-sport athlete. He makes a ton of contact, works counts well, and is already developing sneaky power. Most players with his background – he was a rising hoops star who also played quarterback – tend to move slowly through the lower levels. Montgomery has already risen to Double-A.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Endy Rodriguez Ezequiel Tovar Kyle Manzardo Tyler Gentry Wilmer Flores (b. 2001)

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