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Archives for 2024

Marlins Outright Eli Villalobos

By Darragh McDonald | June 1, 2024 at 10:55am CDT

TODAY: The Marlins outrighted Villalobos to Triple-A after he cleared waivers, as per MLB.com’s official transactions page.  It isn’t yet known if Villalobos will accept the assignment to opt into free agency.

MAY 27: The Marlins announced that infielder Xavier Edwards has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. To open up a spot for him on the 40-man roster, right-hander Eli Villalobos has been designated for assignment.

Edwards, 24, battled a foot infection during Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He has been playing in rehab games for over a week now and is healthy enough to be activated, though he only played seven games on his rehab so the club will keep him on optional assignment for regular playing time in Jacksonville. Though he won’t be joining the active roster, the Fish needed to make a corresponding 40-man move since Edwards was on the 60-day injured list, which will nudge Villalobos off his spot.

The right-handed Villalobos is about a month away from his 27th birthday. The Marlins claimed him off waivers from the Pirates last June but then passed him through waivers about a week later. He got his 40-man roster spot back earlier this month and was able to make his major league debut. He made three appearances for the Marlins, allowing one earned run in 4 1/3 innings, before being optioned back to Jacksonville about two weeks ago.

In addition to that small sample of big league action, Villalobos has also thrown 18 innings over 13 Triple-A appearances this year with a 4.50 earned run average. He has struck out 26.5% of batters faced at that level and kept 44.7% of batted balls on the ground, but he’s also walked 13.3% of hitters that have stepped to the plate.

That has generally been the recipe for Villalobos. Dating back to the start of 2021, he has tossed 196 innings in the minors with a 3.72 ERA. His 29.4% strikeout rate in that stretch is quite strong but he’s also given free passes at a 12.2% rate.

The Marlins will have a week to trade Villalobos or pass him through waivers. He can still be optioned for the rest of this year and one additional season, which could perhaps give him appeal for a club that is intrigued by the strikeouts and willing to wait to see if the control improves. If Villalobos were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of his previous outright.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Eli Villalobos Xavier Edwards

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AL West Notes: Semien, Schanuel, Erceg

By Mark Polishuk | June 1, 2024 at 8:14am CDT

Marcus Semien went 1-for-4 in the Rangers’ 8-2 loss to the Marlins yesterday, marking his return to the lineup after sitting out Texas’ previous game.  While off-days aren’t normally worth mention, Semien’s absence from Wednesday’s lineup ended a streak of 349 starts for the star second baseman, and it represented only his ninth missed game since the start of the 2019 season.  The decision was made since Semien is dealing with a compressed nerve in his neck, as he told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and other reporters yesterday, and the hope is that resting both Wednesday and Thursday (when the Rangers didn’t have a game) will help get Semien back on track.

“I could have missed more time, but I’m trying to figure out how to fight through it,” Semien said.  “It feels better after a day off and another day of rest.  I’m happy about that.  I just want to come back strong.”

The injury stems from a collision between Semien and Adolis Garcia while the two were chasing the same fly ball on May 18.  Semien has hit only .135/.200/.189 over 40 plate appearances in the nine games since the collision, and also made three errors in the field.  As Grant notes, Semien’s career splits indicate that he is generally a better hitter anyway later in the season, though this neck issue adds an unwelcome obstacle for a Texas club that has struggled to a 27-30 record in its defense of last year’s World Series championship.

More from around the AL West…

  • Speaking of lingering injuries, Nolan Schanuel was a late scratch from the Angels’ lineup yesterday due to left thumb soreness.  Manager Ron Washington told MLB.com and other media that Schanuel has been bothered by his thumb for an unspecified period of time, which could explain the first baseman’s underwhelming .224/.294/.328 slash line through 206 plate appearances.  It has still been less than a year since Schanuel was selected as the 11th overall pick in the 2023 draft, and his 2024 numbers have been a tough follow-up to his solid .275/.402/.330 mark over 132 PA last season, after the Angels fast-tracked him to the majors after just 97 minor league PA.
  • Lucas Erceg was placed on the Athletics’ 15-day injured list yesterday with what officially termed a forearm strain, and manager Mark Kotsay didn’t give reporters (including MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos) a timetable on when the reliever might be ready to return to action.  However, it does seem like Erceg’s injury might be of the relatively minor variety, as Kotsay indicated that Erceg might be able to start throwing “sooner than later.”  That’s certainly good news considering the ominous nature of forearm injuries, so it seems like Erceg could soon resume set-up duties in front of star rookie closer Mason Miller.  Erceg has a 2.86 ERA over 22 relief innings, with a set of impressive Statcast metrics that include a superb 31% strikeout rate and 28% hard-hit ball rate.
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Los Angeles Angels Notes Oakland Athletics Texas Rangers Lucas Erceg Marcus Semien Nolan Schanuel

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John Means, Tyler Wells To Undergo UCL Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | May 31, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

Orioles general manager Mike Elias informed the media today that both left-hander John Means and right-hander Tyler Wells will undergo elbow surgery. Each player will be undergoing ulnar collateral ligament repair, though it’s not known if either will be full Tommy John surgery or the internal brace alternative. In either case, both players are now set to miss the remainder of the season. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to relay the news on X.

It’s an unfortunate double blow to the Baltimore rotation depth. The news on Means is particularly heartbreaking as he just got back from a lengthy Tommy John layoff not too long ago. He went under the knife in April of 2022, missing the majority of that season and most of the following season as well.

He did return to the mound late in 2023 but felt renewed elbow soreness. He was left off the club’s playoff roster last year and the O’s then tried to slow-play his ramp-up here in 2024. He started the season on the injured list and was reinstated at the start of May, making four starts before landing back on the IL with a left forearm strain.

Now Means is set for yet another long rehabilitation period, which will include the remainder of this season and likely a decent chunk of 2025 as well. From 2019 to 2021, he was one of the few bright spots for the club during its rebuilding phase. He tossed 345 1/3 innings in those three years, one of which was shortened by the pandemic, with a 3.73 ERA. But due to the elbow issues, he’s only thrown 52 1/3 innings over the past three seasons and that number won’t be going up now.

In addition to giving Means another huge obstacle to overcome, this surgery has the chance to end his tenure with the Orioles. He will pass six years of major league service time by season’s end and is set for free agency this coming winter. At that time, he will be heading into his age-32 season with an uncertain health outlook after all the aforementioned elbow work. Perhaps he and the Orioles will work out a new contract to cover his rehab period, if both sides are interested, but he could also consider getting healthy again and before showcasing himself for other clubs.

Wells, 29, landed on the injured list in the middle of April due to elbow inflammation. It appears that the club didn’t find much success with whatever non-surgical options it was exploring over the past six weeks and ultimately decided that surgery was indeed necessary.

The righty has a 4.06 ERA with the O’s since the start of 2021, pitching both out of the rotation and out of the bullpen. He reached arbitration in the most recent offseason as a Super Two player and is making $1.9625MM this year. He would be in line for another pass through arbitration this winter but wouldn’t be able to get a big raise after missing the vast majority of the current campaign. It’s also possible the O’s decide to non-tender Wells, given his upcoming rehab, though he is also controllable through 2027 and is still optionable.

For the club, this will significantly weaken their rotation depth for the remainder of the year. They currently have a starting mix consisting of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez, which is a solid group but one with question marks.

Bradish was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in February. He managed to return to the club and has pitched well through a few starts, though that was also the case for Means before his elbow issues returned. Suárez has a 1.53 ERA this year but it’s his first MLB season since 2017. Irvin has a 2.84 ERA but with a low strikeout rate of 17.6%.

Even without Means and Wells, reinforcements could be coming from within. Dean Kremer is on the injured list but isn’t expected to be out too much longer. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are both throwing well in Triple-A this year.

The club is 35-19 and comfortably in playoff position. Perhaps they will use the coming weeks and months to evaluate everyone in that group and see how things look in the middle of July, but it also seems fair to expect the O’s to be exploring the trade market for starting pitching this summer.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand John Means Tyler Wells

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Dodgers Release Kevin Padlo

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 11:14pm CDT

The Dodgers released infielder Kevin Padlo earlier this week, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. He’d been in the organization on the minor league contract he inked in January.

Padlo didn’t get to the majors with Los Angeles. He had played in the big leagues in each of the previous three seasons. A former fifth-round pick, the right-handed hitting infielder has suited up for five different teams. Padlo has appeared with the Rays, Mariners, Giants, Pirates and Angels. Despite logging action with five clubs, he has a combined 26 games of MLB experience. Padlo has hit .111/.158/.167 without a homer in 57 plate appearances.

The 27-year-old has generally been a productive hitter at the top minor league level. Padlo carried a .251/.348/.461 Triple-A slash line into this season. He was out to a slower start this year, hitting .216/.340/.380 over 209 plate appearances. He walked a customarily strong 15.3% clip against a 26.3% strikeout rate — higher than average but right around his career mark. His .272 average on balls in play was a bit below his typical level.

Padlo is likely to seek another minor league opportunity. He has been a part of seven organizations in his career — he was initially a Rockies draftee who went to the Rays in the Germán Márquez/Jake McGee trade — so he hasn’t been short on teams intrigued by his plate discipline and raw power.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Kevin Padlo

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Mets Release Jiman Choi

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 9:58pm CDT

The Mets have granted first baseman Jiman Choi a release from his minor league contract, reports Will Sammon of the Athletic (X link). Choi was one of a handful of players who had an opt-out date tomorrow. It seems he informed the team he intended to trigger the out clause and the Mets decided not to call him up.

Choi signed with the Mets in the early part of Spring Training. He lost out to DJ Stewart in a camp battle for an Opening Day roster spot. The lefty hitter nevertheless reported to Triple-A Syracuse and bypassed chances to retest free agency at the end of Spring Training and on May 1. He didn’t find much success in the organization, hitting .183/.307/.317 over 101 Triple-A plate appearances.

While Choi drew an impressive 16 walks, he struck out 28 times and only collected 15 hits in 25 games. He was on the minor league injured list between late April and May 14. He had a .189/.319/.378 slash before the injury and turned in a .171/.268/.286 mark after returning.

There probably wouldn’t have been room on the big league roster for Choi even if he were raking in Syracuse. Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez are locked in at first base and designated hitter, respectively. Stewart, who has reached base at a .352 clip in 122 plate appearances behind a massive 17.2% walk percentage, is on hand as a lefty bench bat. The Mets have already had too many defensively limited players on the bench in recent weeks, leading them to option Brett Baty and call up Jose Iglesias this morning.

Choi’s middling performance in Syracuse makes it unlikely he’ll land an immediate MLB job. His camp will presumably search for another minor league contract with an organization offering more of a path to first base playing time. Choi stumbled to a .163/.239/.385 showing between the Pirates and Padres in a 2023 season mostly lost to injuries. He was a productive platoon bat for the Rays from 2019-22, hitting .248/.361/.447 in more than 1100 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

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New York Mets Transactions Ji-Man Choi

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Matt Bowman Elects Free Agency

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 9:10pm CDT

Reliever Matt Bowman has elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks on Sunday, tweets Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports. The right-hander, who turned 33 today, went unclaimed on outright waivers.

Bowman pitched in four games for Arizona, allowing six runs over 6 2/3 innings. The Snakes had acquired him from the Twins in a cash trade on May 2. Bowman had pitched five times for Minnesota as well. He allowed eight runs in 14 1/3 frames with 10 strikeouts and six walks between the two teams. That’s already the Princeton product’s heaviest MLB workload since 2019.

Injuries essentially robbed Bowman of the 2020-22 seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’20 campaign and didn’t return to full health until last season. Bowman spent most of last year in Triple-A with the Yankees, turning in a 3.99 ERA with a decent 22.6% strikeout rate and a strong 51.9% grounder percentage over 58 2/3 innings. New York briefly called him to the majors last fall but cut him loose at season’s end.

Bowman signed with Minnesota on a non-roster contract and again pitched well in Triple-A. He didn’t allow an earned run over his six innings, leading the Twins to call him up during the second week of April. Bowman is out of options, so Minnesota couldn’t send him back to the minors once they added him to their 40-man roster. That led to his trade to Arizona, but Bowman struggled in his limited time in the desert. Based on his recent Triple-A production, he shouldn’t have any problem finding a new minor league deal now that he’s back on the open market.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Matt Bowman

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Seven Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities This Weekend

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 8:20pm CDT

As part of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — generally, players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not promoted.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. There were 31 players who initially had that option in Spring Training.

Eleven of them — Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Cooper, Chase Anderson, Dominic Leone, Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Kevin Pillar, Jesse Chavez, Brad Keller, Curt Casali and José Ureña — are currently on MLB rosters. Joely Rodríguez, Tyler Duffey, Matt Barnes and Drew Pomeranz made it to the big leagues but were subsequently removed from the 40-man roster; Barnes and Pomeranz are free agents.

Bryan Shaw, Matt Duffy and Carl Edwards Jr. are on new minor league deals after opting out in Spring Training. Six others — Elvis Andrus, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron, Jake Odorizzi and Kolten Wong — are free agents after being released.

That left seven players with opt-out chances on May 1. While none of them took that immediately, David Peralta opted out of his deal with the Cubs on May 13. He inked a minor league contract with the Padres a few days later and was added to the MLB roster on May 22. Let’s check in on the six remaining players who can retest free agency tomorrow — plus one player whose deal contains a contractual opt-out provision.

  • Angels: OF Jake Marisnick

Marisnick has had a tough time staying healthy in 2024. The glove-first outfielder has only played in 12 games with the Angels’ top affiliate in Salt Lake. He hasn’t hit in a limited sample, going 5-32 with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Marinsick was out of action between mid-April and the second week of May. He appeared in seven contests before going back on the injured list on May 25. He’s probably best served staying with the Halos, who are without Mike Trout and leaning on Mickey Moniak as their primary center fielder. Moniak is hitting .175/.214/.250 over 126 plate appearances.

  • Blue Jays: 1B Joey Votto

Votto’s homecoming has been held up by a Spring Training ankle injury. The former MVP has yet to play in a minor league game. There’s no reason to expect the Toronto native will opt out. Neither Justin Turner nor Daniel Vogelbach is hitting well for the Jays, so there could be an opportunity for Votto once he’s healthy. Vogelbach, as a left-handed hitting DH, is the most direct competition. He has a .167/.273/.292 slash and has only started 13 of the team’s 55 games.

  • Mets: 1B Jiman Choi

Choi, a lefty-hitting first baseman, was on the injured list for his prior opt-out chance. He’s healthy now, returning to Triple-A Syracuse on May 14. Choi hasn’t gotten into any kind of rhythm offensively, though. The 33-year-old had a .189/.319/.378 slash before hitting the IL. He owns a .171/.268/.286 mark in the 10 games since his return. Choi isn’t hitting well enough to merit a major league opportunity, though he could look for a different minor league contract with Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and Mark Vientos firmly above him on the first base/DH depth chart.

  • Rangers: RHP Shane Greene

Greene pitched in six games for Triple-A Round Rock in April. He allowed 15 runs in eight innings and was placed on the injured list. The Express transferred the veteran righty to the full-season IL two weeks ago, ruling him out for the year.

  • Red Sox: RHP Michael Fulmer, C Roberto Pérez

Neither Fulmer nor Pérez has played this season. Fulmer will miss the entire year after undergoing elbow surgery last fall. His contract is a two-year deal; he almost certainly won’t opt out.

Pérez missed most of 2023 after undergoing a rotator cuff repair on his right shoulder. He played in seven games this spring but has spent the regular season on the minor league IL with an undisclosed injury. The Sox have gotten strong play from their catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire. Perhaps Pérez feels there’s a better path to playing time if he signs a minor league deal with another team, but it seems likelier he’ll stick in the organization.

  • Twins: 2B Tony Kemp

Kemp is not one of the aforementioned Article XX(b) players. He’s playing on a minor league deal that he signed in mid-April with the Twins. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reported (on X) earliest this month that Kemp’s contract contains a June 1 opt-out date. The left-handed hitting second baseman/left fielder has struggled for Triple-A St. Paul, batting .193/.316/.325 with three homers across 98 plate appearances.

That’s mostly attributable to poor ball in play results. Kemp has shown his typically strong plate discipline, walking 13 times against 17 strikeouts. He has been plagued by a .206 average on balls in play. Kemp was briefly on the Orioles’ big league roster in April and has appeared in parts of nine MLB seasons overall. He hit .209/.303/.404 in 124 games with the A’s a season ago.

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins New York Mets Toronto Blue Jays Uncategorized Jake Marisnick Ji-Man Choi Joey Votto Michael Fulmer Roberto Perez Shane Greene Tony Kemp

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Giants Outright Three Players

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 7:47pm CDT

The Giants made a few moves before tonight’s series opener against the Yankees. San Francisco placed rookie infielder Marco Luciano on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 30, with a right hamstring strain. Casey Schmitt was recalled to take his place on the active roster.

The team also informed reporters (including Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic) that outfielder Ryan McKenna, catcher Jakson Reetz and lefty reliever Drew Pomeranz each cleared outright waivers after being designated for assignment in recent days. Pomeranz has already elected free agency; McKenna and Reetz have that right as well, though it’s not clear if they’ll do so.

Luciano came up to the MLB roster two weeks ago. With Nick Ahmed shelved by a wrist sprain, Luciano got an opportunity as the starting shortstop. He hit well, picking up nine knocks (including two doubles and a triple) in 24 at-bats. The 22-year-old struggled on the defensive side, though. He committed five errors in 60 innings, most notably a booted grounder against the Pirates on May 21 that should have been a game-ending double play. Pittsburgh eventually tied the game and prevailed in extra innings.

Brett Wisely is starting at shortstop against Marcus Stroman tonight. Wisely isn’t a natural shortstop, but he probably offers a higher offensive ceiling than Schmitt provides. The 25-year-old Wisely has hit .311/.403/.487 in Triple-A this season; he has 10 hits in 25 big league at-bats in 2024. He has been a second baseman for the majority of his professional career. Bob Melvin has given him 48 1/3 innings at shortstop this year.

Beyond the infield shakeup, the Giants got DFA resolutions on Reetz, McKenna and Pomeranz. All three players had brief stints on the MLB roster. Reetz, a 28-year-old catcher, appeared in five games with three starts behind the dish. The Giants subsequently welcomed Patrick Bailey back from the concussion list and signed Curt Casali. Reetz is fourth on the catching depth chart behind that duo and Blake Sabol, to say nothing of the injured Tom Murphy.

That pushed him off the 40-man roster one week ago — ironically, to make room for Pomeranz. The Giants signed the former All-Star to a $1MM contract after he opted out of a minor league deal with the Dodgers. Pomeranz didn’t pitch over four days and was DFA on Tuesday. While San Francisco would presumably be interested in bringing him back on a non-roster deal, he’ll head to the open market for now.

McKenna was also DFA as part of Tuesday’s roster shuffle. The 27-year-old played in four games after the Giants claimed him from the Orioles two weeks ago. A career .221/.298/.328 hitter, McKenna is a glove-first depth outfielder. He has a .261/.359/.556 batting line over 274 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

The Giants also signed outfielder Allan Cerda to a minor league deal earlier this week (h/t to Matt Eddy of Baseball America). They assigned the 24-year-old to Double-A Richmond. Cerda was once a prospect of some regard in the Cincinnati farm system. The Reds carried him on their 40-man roster for the 2022 season, but his bat stalled at the Double-A level. He has a .188/.336/.370 line over 541 Double-A plate appearances. Cerda will hope for a breakthrough with the second organization of his career.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Allan Cerda Drew Pomeranz Jakson Reetz Marco Luciano Ryan McKenna

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Dodgers Designate Elieser Hernandez For Assignment

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 6:57pm CDT

The Dodgers announced they’ve designated right-hander Elieser Hernández for assignment. They needed to clear an active roster spot for closer Evan Phillips, who is back from the 15-day injured list. The move drops the team’s 40-man roster count to 39.

Hernández made five appearances for Los Angeles, his first MLB work since 2022. The righty inked a minor league deal over the offseason and was selected onto the club two weeks ago. He made a spot start in his first appearance, working six innings of three-run ball against the Giants. The Dodgers kept him around as a low-leverage reliever. Hernández allowed runs in three of his four bullpen outings, coughing up three runs without recording an out against the Mets on Wednesday.

The 29-year-old has appeared in parts of six MLB campaigns. He worked in a swing role for the Marlins between 2018-22. Hernández typically posted good strikeout and walk numbers, but he has been very vulnerable to the longball. That was again a problem in his limited look with the Dodgers. He gave up five homers in only 9 2/3 innings, serving up nine runs in the process.

Hernández is out of options, so the Dodgers had to designate him for assignment to remove him from the MLB team. It’s likely he’ll land on waivers in the next few days. While Hernández didn’t pitch well in the majors, he worked to an impressive 2.83 ERA while striking out nearly 30% of batters faced over 28 2/3 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City. That might get him a look from another organization. If he goes unclaimed on waivers, Hernández has the requisite service time to decline an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Phillips was sidelined for a little less than a month by a hamstring strain. He was out to another excellent start before the injury. Phillips turned in 13 2/3 innings of three-run ball, fanning 17 hitters while issuing four walks. He now has a 1.64 ERA over 148 1/3 innings since the Dodgers claimed him off waivers from Tampa Bay in August 2021. The Dodgers used a committee approach to the ninth while Phillips was out of action. Daniel Hudson, Alex Vesia, J.P. Feyereisen and Blake Treinen have each picked up at least one save this month.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Elieser Hernandez Evan Phillips

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Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2024 at 6:30pm CDT

The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.

Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.

Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.

Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.

There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.

Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.

He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.

San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.

Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres Jurickson Profar

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