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Francisco Lindor’s Slow Start Is Not Abnormal

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This post is brought to you by Stathead.  We use Stathead, powered by Baseball Reference, to find interesting stats in our articles. Stathead has easy-to-use discovery tools to take you inside the BR database. Try it for free today!

The 2024 season is now rolling along, which means it’s time to wildly overreact to small samples of data. Previously unremarkable players are suddenly looking like Hall-of-Famers while reliably good players now seem to be washed.

A midseason slump is easy to dismiss when you look up and the full season stats still seem good. Maybe a slumping hitter is still hitting .265 or a pitcher that just got lit up still has an earned run average around 4.00. But early on, a batting average that starts with a zero or an ERA that has two digits before the decimal place can be a cause for concern.

Thankfully, Stathead has an amazing tool to help put this all into proper context. Using the Span Finder, we can search a player’s entire career to see if they have ever had a previous slump that compares to what’s currently happening. Let’s use Francisco Lindor as an example.

It’s no secret that Lindor hasn’t exactly been his best self so far this year. His struggles became such a talking point amid fans of the Mets that some of them got together on social media and decided to support Lindor with a standing ovation, mirroring how Phillies’ fans responded when Trea Turner was struggling last year.

Through 15 games, Lindor has just eight hits in 62 at-bats for a .129 batting average. Just two of those eight hits have been for extra bases, one double and one home run. His batting line is just  .129/.236/.194 and his on-base plus slugging is just .430, well below his career mark of .810.

Now that Lindor is 30 years old, it might be tempting to consider this the start of some age-based decline, but Span Finder shows us that he has been here before. Doing a custom search for every 15-game stretch of Lindor’s career and sorting by ascending OPS, we get this…

  • September 10 to September 26 of 2016: .309 OPS
  • September 11 to September 28 of 2016: .337 OPS
  • September 9 to September 24 of 2016: .340 OPS
  • April 17 to May 5 of 2021: .388 OPS
  • October 1 of 2023 to April 13 of 2024: .392 OPS
  • September 8 to September 23 of 2016: .404 OPS
  • April 17 of 2021 to May 3 of 2021: .414 OPS
  • September 29 of 2017 to April 11 of 2018: .429 OPS
  • March 29 to April 14 of 2024: .430 OPS

Lindor is clearly in one of the worst stretches of his career right now, but it’s not totally without precedent. He slumped real bad at the end of the 2016 season when he was 22 years old. Despite that awful finish, he still hit .301/.358/.435 on the year overall for a 106 OPS+. Cleveland made the playoffs that year and Lindor immediately put that slump behind him, hitting .310/.355/.466 in the postseason as the club went all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, even going to extra innings in that classic game.

Given that there were also some notable struggles early on in 2018 and 2021 mixed in there, it seems fair to conclude that Lindor is performing within the range of previous outcomes. It’s clearly not ideal for him or the Mets that he’s started the season in this hole, but it’s one he has climbed out of before. Throughout the ups and downs of his career, he has hit .272/.340/.470 for a 116 OPS+.

That bat, along with Lindor’s speed and defense, are why the Mets gave him a ten-year, $341MM extension a few years ago. That deal pays Lindor $32MM annually through the 2031 season, so it’s good for the Mets that his current slump isn’t totally unprecedented.

Mariners, Luke Barker Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Luke Barker, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. The Gaeta Sports client will head to Triple-A Tacoma.

Barker, 32, made three appearances for the Brewers in 2022 — his lone MLB experience to date. The right-hander was undrafted out of Division-II Chico State University in California back in 2015 but parlayed a dominant showing in the independent Frontier League into a minor league look with the Brewers organization. He spent the next six seasons in the Brewers system, working toward that ’22 debut.

While Barker was tagged for five runs in four innings during his MLB cup of coffee, his minor league track record is outstanding. In 261 2/3 minor league innings, the righty carries a 2.38 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. That includes three seasons of Triple-A work — a total of 116 1/3 frames with a 2.32 earned run average, an even better 30.4% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate. Barker doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91 mph on his heater during his brief MLB look, but he’s routinely posted swinging-strike rates north of 14% in the upper minors.

Barker didn’t pitch in 2023. He spent the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery after suffering a UCL tear late in the 2022 campaign. He’ll now join just the second organization of his career.

The Mariners aren’t short on talented relievers, though two of their best are currently on the 15-day injured list: righties Matt Brash and Gregory Santos. Brash was slowed by a bout of elbow inflammation during spring training, while Santos suffered a lat strain late in camp. Neither has pitched in the big leagues or on a minor league rehab assignment so far this season. Barker will give the M’s some more depth in the upper minors. Seattle has a recent track record of striking gold on unheralded bullpen acquisitions — Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo among them — and Barker will hope to add his name to the list.

Astros Outright Cooper Hummel

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Catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel, whom the Astros designated for assignment last week, went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Sugar Land, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He hasn’t been outrighted before and doesn’t have three years of MLB service, so Hummel can’t reject the assignment. He’ll remain in the organization as a depth piece.

Hummel is no stranger to the DFA circuit, having bounced from the Mariners, to the Mets, to the Giants, to the Astros just from the end of the 2023 season until now. The 29-year-old has just 227 big league plate appearances under his belt, most of which came with the 2022 Diamondbacks. He’s a .166/.264/.286 hitter between the D-backs and the Mariners (10 games in 2023). Those numbers aren’t much to look at, but Hummel hit .262/.409/.435 in Triple-A last season and walked at a mammoth 18% rate along the way. He’s a .287/.419/.488 hitter in 992 overall plate appearances in Triple-A.

Given that standout production in the upper minors and his unusual blend of defensive versatility, Hummel makes a nice depth option for the Astros to be able to stash in Triple-A. He’s logged more than 1800 innings in left field, 1054 frames behind the plate, 508 innings at first base and another 296 innings in right field. He also still has a minor league option remaining, so if he plays his way back onto the 40-man roster, he doesn’t necessarily need to be exposed to waivers a second time if Houston wants to send him down.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

MLBTR will be publishing the first edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings for the 2024-25 offseason this week. If you have a question about that or the ongoing 2024 season or anything else related to baseball, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Marlins To Place Jake Burger On Injured List, Activate Edward Cabrera

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The Marlins are placing third baseman Jake Burger on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique injury, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. She adds that Burger likened the discomfort he experienced to a 2023 oblique injury where he only missed the 10-day minimum. The team hasn’t provided a timetable for his return just yet. The Fish will recall utilityman Otto Lopez, whom they claimed off waivers from the Giants earlier this season, to take Burger’s spot on the roster.

Burger, 28, is tied for the Marlins’ team lead with three homers and is currently pacing the club with 15 runs knocked in. His overall .228/.281/.421 batting line is still well shy of league-average production (86 wRC+), but he’s been one of the better hitters in a dismal Marlins lineup — particularly with runners on base. Even a short-term absence figures to be a notable hit to a Marlins lineup that has mustered a collective .209/.273/.316 slash to begin the season.

The injury to Burger is exacerbated by the fact that utilityman Vidal Brujan is also banged up at the moment. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald tweets that Brujan is dealing with a right knee injury and is currently considered day-to-day. The Marlins are still in the process of evaluating that injury, and it’s possible he’ll wind up missing some time as well.

As such, the Marlins’ top options at third base right now are Emmanuel Rivera — acquired from the D-backs for cash following his DFA earlier this month — and Lopez. Rivera hit .261/.314/.358 in 283 plate appearances with Arizona last season but is out to a 3-for-17 start (all singles) in his time with the Marlins. Lopez is hitting .485/.528/.788 in a tiny sample of 36 Triple-A plate appearances this season and carries a career .288/.354/.401 slash in parts of four Triple-A campaigns overall. He’s spent far more time at both middle infield slots than at the hot corner, but he does have 205 career innings at third base.

It’s not all bad news for the Marlins. They’re expected to reinstate right-hander Edward Cabrera from the injured list to make his season debut tonight, reports Kevin Barral of Fish On First. De Nicola tweets that left-hander A.J. Puk had been slated to take the ball, but he’ll be pushed back a couple days due to an illness that’s been making the rounds in the Miami clubhouse and is currently impacting him. The Marlins will need to make a second roster move to open space for Cabrera’s return.

Cabrera, 26, has spent the first two-plus weeks of the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement. However, he’s made three Triple-A rehab starts now, allowing just one run in 12 2/3 innings. He walked seven batters over seven innings in his first two appearances, showing a bit of rust, but Cabrera punched out nine batters and walked just one over 5 2/3 frames in his most recent outing — yielding only an unearned run along the way. He’s pitched 171 1/3 innings over the past two seasons for the Marlins, working to a 3.73 ERA with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate but a dismal 13.7% walk rate that’s in need of further refinement.

Cubs Sign Julio Teheran To Minor League Deal

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April 15: It’s a minor league deal for Teheran, tweets ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

April 14: The Cubs have signed right-hander Julio Teheran, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link).  After the Mets designated Teheran for assignment earlier on Tuesday, he opted for free agency after clearing waivers, and has now quickly landed with a new team to complete a whirlwind week.

Teheran’s time in New York lasted all of one start, as he allowed four runs over 2 2/3 innings in an 8-7 win over the Braves on April 8.  Since the Mets signed Teheran to a Major League (albeit non-guaranteed) contract, one imagines that the team would’ve given him a longer look if he had pitched well, but the Mets chose to move one once roster technicalities allowed them to recall Jose Butto.

Since the Cubs are also trying to deal with some injuries within the rotation, Teheran looks like he’ll again be in line to cover a few starts until the team gets healthier.  Jameson Taillon might be close to returning from the 15-day injured list but Justin Steele will still be out until sometime in May, leaving the Cubs with a current rotation mix of Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and Ben Brown.  There isn’t much MLB experience within that group apart from Hendricks, so between Taillon’s return and Teheran’s signing, Brown seems like the odd man out, and the Cubs can then decide on whether Wicks or Assad will remain as the fifth starter.  It is also possible that Teheran could pitch as a depth option at Triple-A, if Chicago wants a longer look at any of their younger arms.

Teheran pitched for Milwaukee last season, meaning Cubs manager and ex-Brewers skipper Craig Counsell is very familiar with the veteran righty.  Teheran’s 71 2/3 innings with the Brew Crew represented his highest Major League workload since the 2019 season, and he delivered a respectable 4.40 ERA while starting 11 of his 14 games for Milwaukee.  A two-time All-Star during his heyday with the Braves, Teheran moved from front-of-the-rotation arm to durable mid-rotation starter to journeyman, as the Cubs are now his seventh different organization since the start of the 2020 campaign.

The Opener: Lorenzen, MLB Debuts, Busch

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Happy Jackie Robinson Day to baseball fans everywhere! With 10% of the MLB regular season already in the books, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Lorenzen to make season debut:

Right-hander Michael Lorenzen signed a one-year deal with the Rangers last month and has spent the season to this point building up in the minor leagues. Recent reporting has indicated that will end today, however, as Lorenzen is expected to be called up to start tonight’s series opener in Detroit, which is slated to begin at 6:40pm local time, opposite Tigers righty Reese Olson. On top of being Lorenzen’s first start in a Rangers uniform, today will mark the right-hander’s first time returning to Detroit since he was shipped to the Phillies ahead of last summer’s trade deadline. Lorenzen found a great deal of success during his brief time with the Tigers, pitching to a 3.58 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings of work prior to the trade.

2. Mariners, Nationals to promote youngsters ahead of debuts:

In addition to Lorenzen’s debut in Texas, today is also expected to mark the major league debuts of youngsters in both Seattle and the nation’s capital. Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker and Mariners outfielder Jonatan Clase will be promoted to the majors for the first time today. No corresponding 40-man moves will be necessary for either player; the Nationals added Parker to the 40-man roster back in November ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, while the Mariners did the same with Clase the year prior.

Parker, 24, is slated to take the ball opposite right-hander Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers in L.A. at 7:10pm local time this evening. The Nationals’ fifth-round pick in 2020, Parker pitched to a 4.20 ERA in 25 appearances at the Double-A level last year. Clase, meanwhile, made his pro debut with the Mariners at 17 years old back in 2019 and has gotten off to a hot start at the Triple-A level this season, slashing .311/.396/.622 in his first 53 trips to the plate at the level. Should he make his debut this evening he’ll be facing off against the Reds in Seattle, where right-handers Frankie Montas and George Kirby are set to face off at 6:42pm local time.

3. Busch nearing franchise record with Cubs:

Rookie first baseman Michael Busch has been on a heater to open the 2024 campaign. The 26-year-old has slashed an incredible .327/.393/.694 in his first 56 plate appearances with the Cubs, who acquired him from the Dodgers alongside right-hander Yency Almonte this winter in exchange for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope. Yesterday’s game against the Mariners saw Busch go 2-for-4 with a home run off of right-hander Luis Castillo.

That performance was made more notable by the fact that it was the fourth consecutive game in which Busch homered. That puts the rookie just one long ball shy of matching the club’s franchise record for consecutive games with at least one home run, a record that MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian relays is jointly held by Busch’s teammate Christopher Morel as well as franchise legends Sammy Sosa, Ryne Sandberg, and Hack Wilson. Busch will attempt to match that quartet in tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks, where the Cubs will take on right-hander Merrill Kelly in Phoenix at 6:40pm local time.

AL West Notes: Stephenson, Canzone, Verlander, Valdez

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Robert Stephenson ended his minor league rehab outing after four pitches yesterday, as the Angels right-hander called for the team trainer and then left the mound.  Manager Ron Washington told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that Stephenson would be undergoing tests, but didn’t offer any other details about the situation.

Shoulder inflammation kept Stephenson from pitching during Spring Training, yet after beginning the season on the 15-day injured list, the reliever seemed to be making good progress in his recovery and was looking to be part of the Angels’ roster before April was over.  Yesterday’s news seems to put that timeline in jeopardy, and the only hope now is that Stephenson’s setback is less ominous than it seemed.  A dominant four-month stretch with the Rays last season turned Stephenson into one of the more sought-after commodities in the free agent relief market this past winter, and the Angels landed the righty on a three-year, $33MM contract.

More from around the AL West….

  • Mariners outfielder Dominic Canzone likely seems headed for the 10-day IL after suffering a left AC joint sprain in today’s game.  In the second inning, Canzone collided with the wall while catching a Mike Tauchman fly ball, and had to be removed from the game.  Playing in his second MLB campaign, Canzone has hit .219/.286/.531 over 35 plate appearances for Seattle, hitting three homers as part of his early-season power surge.  Canzone and Dylan Moore have shared a left-field platoon, but if Canzone is out, Moore could get more of a regular role, or the Mariners could have Luke Raley assume the lefty-swinging side of the platoon.
  • There was plenty of concern for Framber Valdez’s health when elbow soreness sent the southpaw to the Astros’ 15-day injured list earlier this week, but it seems like Valdez may have avoided a serious problem.  Valdez told MLB.com and other media today that he aims to start throwing again on Tuesday, and doesn’t think he’ll need a minor league rehab assignment.  “I feel a lot better now than I did then, and I’ll continue my routine as a starter,” Valdez said.  Needless to say, a return after the minimum 15 days would be a fantastic outcome for Valdez and the Astros, who are already dealing with a lot of injuries in the rotation.
  • Justin Verlander is one of those other Astros arms on the shelf, yet the future Hall-of-Famer is on pace to make his 2024 debut on Friday in a start against the Nationals.  Verlander threw 77 pitches over four innings in his second and likely final Triple-A rehab start yesterday.  Some shoulder soreness delayed Verlander during Spring Training, so the 41-year-old was placed on the 15-day IL to begin the season in order to give him more time to ramp up and prepare for his 19th big league campaign.

NL West Notes: Padres, Yankees, Soto, Montgomery, Treinen, Bryant

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As one might expect, December’s blockbuster Juan Soto trade between the Padres and Yankees took on several different permutations before the two sides finally agreed on the seven players involved.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Padres had interest in 17 different Yankees players before finally agreeing on a package of four pitchers (Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Drew Thorpe) and catcher Kyle Higashioka in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham.  Clarke Schmidt and Chase Hampton were two of the other pitchers known to be considered when reports began to surface about the trade negotiations, and Heyman adds that the Yankees agreeing to include Thorpe instead of Hampton was one of the turning points in getting the deal done.

Though San Diego ended up taking a pitching-heavy mix of players, Heyman writes that the Friars also asked about such noteworthy position-player prospects as Spencer Jones, Roderick Arias, and George Lombard Jr.  Jones is a top-100 prospect and the 25th overall pick of the 2022 draft, and he has already drawn lots of trade buzz early in his pro career.  The Yankees have thus far balked at moving Jones, even in past talks with the Brewers and White Sox about Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease, respectively.

More from around the NL West…

  • Jordan Montgomery will likely make his Diamondbacks debut on April 18, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Alex Weiner of KTAR 92.3 radio).  Because he didn’t sign until just prior to Opening Day and therefore missed Spring Training, Montgomery started his D’Backs tenure in the minors in order to get some ramp-up work under his belt.  Montgomery got up to 71 pitches over 3 2/3 innings in a Triple-A start yesterday, and though he was tagged for seven unearned runs, Lovullo said Montgomery was just working out his fastball rather than worrying about on-field results.  It remains to be seen if Tommy Henry or Ryne Nelson will be removed from the rotation to make way for Montgomery, though if Montgomery is eased back into action, one of Henry or Nelson could speculatively be paired with the southpaw in something of a piggyback capacity for a turn or two through the rotation.
  • Blake Treinen threw to live hitters today, in the latest step of his recovery process after suffered a bruised lung over a month ago.  Treinen was hit in the chest by a line drive during a Spring Training game, and he told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) that a later MRI revealed two fractured ribs in addition to the bruised lung, though the reliever is now feeling pain-free.  Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said that the plan is to have Treinen face live hitters twice more over the next week, and then begin a minor league rehab assignment during the week of April 22.
  • Kris Bryant wasn’t in the Rockies’ lineup today after making an early exit from Saturday’s game due to back stiffness.  Bryant collided with the right field wall while catching a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fly ball in the first inning Saturday, and remained in the game until being replaced in the bottom of the fourth.  Bryant is considered day-to-day and manager Bud Black said he was available to pinch-hit today if necessary, though given Bryant’s lengthy injury history, any sort of health issue will naturally cause some extra concern.

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