It’s rare for the same team to be on opposite ends of blockbuster trades within one offseason. This Padres front office isn’t afraid to break convention. San Diego was the traditional “seller” in the winter’s biggest trade as they shed a lot of money. That didn’t stop them from dealing a trio of well-regarded prospects to upgrade their rotation in a late-spring strike.
Major League Signings
- LHP Yuki Matsui: Five years, $28MM (deal includes conditional opt-outs after 2026 and ’27 seasons)
- LHP Wandy Peralta: Four years, $16.5MM (deal includes opt-outs after 2024, ’25 and ’26 seasons)
- RHP Woo-Suk Go: Two years, $4.5MM (including buyout of 2026 mutual option)
- LF Jurickson Profar: One year, $1MM
2024 spending: $9.35MM
Total spending: $50MM
Option Decisions
- RHP Seth Lugo declined $7.5MM player option
- DH Matt Carpenter exercised $5.5MM player option
- Team, RHP Nick Martinez declined respective options covering 2024-25 seasons
- Team, RHP Michael Wacha declined respective options covering 2024-25 seasons
Trades and Claims
- Claimed SS Tucupita Marcano off waivers from Pirates
- Claimed RHP Jeremiah Estrada off waivers from Cubs
- Claimed RHP Logan Gillaspie off waivers from Red Sox
- Traded RHP Scott Barlow to Guardians for RHP Enyel De Los Santos
- Selected RHP Stephen Kolek from Mariners in Rule 5 draft
- Traded LF Juan Soto and CF Trent Grisham to Yankees for RHP Michael King, RHP Jhony Brito, RHP Randy Vásquez, minor league RHP Drew Thorpe, and C Kyle Higashioka
- Traded LHP Ray Kerr, DH Matt Carpenter and $1.5MM to Braves for minor league OF Drew Campbell
- Claimed RHP Luis Patiño off waivers from Rays
- Traded minor league LHP Blake Dickerson to Tigers for international bonus pool space
- Acquired RHP Dylan Cease from White Sox for RHP Jairo Iriarte, minor league RHP Drew Thorpe, minor league OF Samuel Zavala, and RHP Steven Wilson
Notable Minor League Signings
- Daniel Camarena, Drew Carlton, Ryan Carpenter, Austin Davis, Matt Festa, Bryce Johnson, Tim Locastro, Mason McCoy, Óscar Mercado, Brad Miller, Cal Mitchell, Nate Mondou, Tommy Nance, Kevin Plawecki, Zach Reks, Chandler Seagle, Tyler Wade
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Barlow, Carpenter, Ji Man Choi, Garrett Cooper, Jose Espada (released to pursue NPB opportunity), Luis García, Grisham, Josh Hader, Rich Hill (still unsigned), Tim Hill (non-tendered), Iriarte, Kerr, Taylor Kohlwey (non-tendered), Lugo, Martinez, Austin Nola (non-tendered), Drew Pomeranz, Gary Sánchez, Blake Snell, Soto, Wacha, Wilson
Under A.J. Preller, it’s fair to presume the Padres are in for a headline-grabbing offseason. Yet while the past few years had been defined by major acquisitions, most of this winter was about departures. Late in the 2023 season, it emerged that the Padres were planning to cut spending. That came on the heels of Diamond Sports Group abandoning their local broadcasting contract midseason and amidst reports about the Padres falling out of compliance with MLB’s debt service ratio.
San Diego had key free agents Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo; option decisions on Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha which they’d decline; and Juan Soto projected for the largest arbitration salary in league history. (Hader and Snell declined qualifying offers, so the Padres landed two draft choices after the fourth round for their departures.) It was clear there’d be a lot of roster turnover. Before they could even address that, the organization needed to settle on its leadership structure. Tension mounted between Preller and manager Bob Melvin towards the end of their underwhelming season. While they made some effort to smooth the relationship going into the winter, everyone decided a break was ultimately in the organization’s best interest.
The Padres allowed Melvin to interview for and accept the managerial role with the Giants without demanding any compensation from their division rivals. They reportedly considered former Angels skipper Phil Nevin and previous Cubs manager David Ross but ultimately stayed in-house. San Diego moved Mike Shildt from an advisory position in the front office back to the dugout, giving him his second managerial opportunity at the big league level. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty also interviewed for the position. When San Diego went with Shildt instead, they let Flaherty depart to serve as Craig Counsell’s top lieutenant with the Cubs. The Padres left the position vacant for 2024.
Of course, one would be remiss to discuss the Padres’ leadership structure without mentioning Peter Seidler. The San Diego owner passed away at age 63 in the middle of November after a battle with illness. Few owners were as widely respected around the league and by their fanbase as Seidler, who consistently approved star acquisitions and ran the organization’s player payroll as high as third in the majors entering last season. This was a franchise that ranked among the league’s bottom-five spenders throughout most of the 2010s. It didn’t always work, but there was little questioning Seidler’s commitment to giving the team a chance to win. Eric Kutsenda took over as the organization’s control person.
It surely wasn’t easy for the front office to step right back into daily operations after Seidler’s death, but the calendar unfortunately didn’t afford them much time. That week, they were faced with a handful of key arbitration decisions. The Padres made the easy call to non-tender Austin Nola after a disappointing tenure in San Diego. Whether they might’ve done the same with reliever Scott Barlow won’t be known, as the Friars found a taker for the righty just before the non-tender deadline.
San Diego flipped Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. It was a one-for-one bullpen swap that saved the Friars around $6MM. De Los Santos doesn’t have the kind of swing-and-miss potential that Barlow offers and is probably better suited for middle relief, but he was a capable reliever for Cleveland over the past two seasons. Given their payroll restrictions, adding a more affordable reliever whom they control for three years was a tidy bit of business for San Diego.
Once the non-tender deadline passed, much of the league’s attention turned to two players: Shohei Ohtani and Soto. (The Padres were never serious threats for the former.) The chance for a second Soto blockbuster in less than 18 months was one of the offseason’s biggest storylines. It quickly became clear that the Yankees were the favorites. The sides pulled off the massive deal at the Winter Meetings.
San Diego packaged Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Bronx for a pitching-heavy return. They added Michael King, who excelled in a limited stint out of the New York rotation late last season. He stepped into the staff behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Righties Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez have big league experience and could battle for spots at the back end of the rotation. At the time, it seemed that pitching prospect Drew Thorpe might soon join them at Petco Park. The Friars also landed Kyle Higashioka as a backup to young catcher Luis Campusano, allowing them to let Gary Sánchez depart in free agency.
Any Soto trade was unquestionably going to make the Padres worse. With so many gaps to plug on the roster, they weren’t prepared to carry him on an arbitration salary that eventually landed at $31MM. The volume approach allowed them to backfill some of the rotation depth they lost in free agency, but it subtracted two-thirds of their starting outfield. The Padres were never going to be able to replace Soto with a player of comparable quality. Yet they also opted against the traditional rebuilding return, pursuing a quantity-driven package of major league ready talent whom they control cheaply for multiple years.
Prioritizing pitching meant leaving massive questions in the outfield. The Padres never really answered them. They were linked to star KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, but it quickly became clear his asking price was going to be well beyond their comfort level. He eventually ended up with the Giants on a $113MM pact. San Diego also showed reported interest in Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor but, thus far, their only major league outfield transaction was to bring back Jurickson Profar on a $1MM deal.
Profar will likely be the Opening Day starter in left field. Tommy Pham remains unsigned and has been linked to a San Diego reunion throughout the winter. His camp and the Padres are reportedly discussing a deal in the $3-4MM range. If Pham signs, he’d bump Profar down a peg on the depth chart. That obviously won’t happen before tomorrow’s regular season opener in South Korea, though.
Whoever is in left field will share time with Fernando Tatis Jr. and 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is calling the latter directly from Double-A on the heels of a monster Spring Training. He’ll be the team’s starting center fielder despite never playing there in a minor league game. It’s a risky move borne partially out of necessity after the Padres missed on their other center field targets. At the same time, it’s not an uncharacteristic roll of the dice for an organization that hasn’t shied away from aggressively promoting its top prospects. José Azocar is likely to occupy the fourth outfield role, although minor league signee Tyler Wade could also see some time on the grass.
While San Diego’s pursuit of Lee didn’t get far, the Padres remained one of the league’s more active teams in Asia. After successfully pursuing players like Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and Martinez in previous offseasons, San Diego made another pair of acquisitions from the Asian pro leagues. They added one player apiece from Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization to their bullpen.
Left-hander Yuki Matsui was the bigger signing, as he landed a surprising five-year, $28MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after years three and four. Matsui is coming off three straight sub-2.00 ERA showings with plus strikeout rates in Japan. Evaluators are split on whether his stuff translates to a late-inning role in MLB, but the Padres clearly expect him to find success. While Matsui was a little behind in camp with back tightness, he should be on the Opening Day roster and could compete with Suarez for the closer role.
Woo Suk Go signed a two-year, $4.5MM pact after a seven-year run in the KBO. He’s young and throws hard, but the modest price tag reflects a general agreement that he projects more as a middle reliever than a high-leverage arm. Go was a closer in the KBO but had inconsistent command.
The bullpen overhaul didn’t stop there. The Padres added ground-ball specialist Wandy Peralta to the middle innings. They signed the former Yankee to a four-year, $16.5MM contract that allows him to opt out after each season. The contract length and overall guarantee were above expectations, but that’s a tradeoff San Diego made to keep his annual salaries low. Peralta has been particularly effective against same-handed hitters over the past couple years, providing a matchup option for Shildt in the middle to late innings.
San Diego also made a trio of waiver claims. They snagged Jeremiah Estrada from the Cubs, brought back former top prospect Luis Patiño from the White Sox, and grabbed righty Logan Gillaspie from the Red Sox. The Padres selected Stephen Kolek out of the Mariners system in the Rule 5 draft. They might not be able to keep everyone from that group. Patiño is out of minor league options and seems likely to be designated for assignment, as he wasn’t included on San Diego’s travel group to Seoul. Kolek can’t be sent down because of his Rule 5 status. Pedro Avila is out of options himself.
Even if the Padres move on from Patiño, they could have five or six new faces in the relief corps. Matsui, Go, De Los Santos, Peralta and Estrada all seem ticketed for key roles. In addition to the free agent departures of Hader, Martinez and Luis García, the Padres subtracted a couple relievers in trade. They flipped Ray Kerr to the Braves to get Atlanta to take on $4MM of Matt Carpenter’s underwater deal. Steven Wilson seemed ticketed for a middle relief spot as recently as last week, but he was an ancillary part of a late-offseason stunner.
Trade talk surrounding Dylan Cease had quieted going into Spring Training. That changed last week, as Chicago reengaged with teams like the Rangers and Yankees in an effort to move the righty before Opening Day. The Padres were initially viewed as more of a peripheral team in the Cease market, but Preller and his staff pushed back in for another star player.
Thorpe’s stay in the organization lasted all of a few months. The key prospect received in the Soto trade wound up headlining a Cease package that also included upper minors righty Jairo Iriarte, Low-A outfield prospect Samuel Zavala, and Wilson. Cease steps into the upper half of the rotation and adds a third established arm alongside Darvish and Musgrove. King slides into the fourth spot, leaving one season-opening role available for Brito, Vásquez, Avila or Matt Waldron.
San Diego dealt a trio of quality but not top-tier prospects and a decent reliever with four years of club control. Cease is making an $8MM salary that fit within their reduced budget. He’s eligible for arbitration once more. Even if he doesn’t recapture the form that made him Cy Young runner-up in 2022, Cease has been exceptionally durable over the past few seasons. He owns a 3.58 ERA going back to the start of 2020 and has a power arsenal that misses bats at an above-average rate. Cease should be a fixture in the San Diego rotation for the next two years, although it’d be foolish to count out San Diego pivoting and putting him back on the market this summer or next offseason if the team doesn’t perform up to expectations.
The one area of the roster that was not dramatically overhauled, at least in terms of personnel, was the infield. The Padres floated Jake Cronenworth in talks but didn’t find a trade partner. That’s no surprise, as he’s coming off a down season and entering the first year of the seven-year extension that he signed last spring. Kim was a much more in-demand trade target heading into the final season of his four-year deal.
The Padres decided not to move him, at least not to another team. San Diego is pushing Kim back up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, however. Xander Bogaerts is flipping to the other side of the bag, as he’ll become a second baseman for the first time in his career. It was always expected that Bogaerts would move off shortstop fairly early into his 11-year free agent deal, although few would’ve predicted that to happen after only one season. Manny Machado will eventually slot back in at third base. He’s likely to be limited to DH duty for the first couple weeks as he continues working back from last fall’s elbow surgery.
San Diego has Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten as short-term options to cover third base, but they may turn to yet another prospect. Former 13th-round pick Graham Pauley has dramatically elevated his stock in pro ball. He’s coming off a .308/.393/.539 batting line between High-A and Double-A. The Duke product continued to rake this spring, turning in a .314/.400/.486 slash over 16 games. The Padres included Pauley in their travel group to Seoul, suggesting they’re considering jumping him directly from Double-A, just as they plan to do with Merrill.
The “offseason” work might not be 100% complete as they try to push a Pham deal across the finish line, but the Padres are a few hours from kicking off the regular season. They’ll do so with a team that looks a lot different than the one that finished 2023. Most outside expectations aren’t as high as they were at this time last year, but the late push for Cease shows that the organization still expects to compete for a playoff spot. Plenty of top-end talent remains. The question is whether the roster is deep enough to hold up over a 162-game stretch.
“The question is whether the roster is deep enough to hold up over a 162-game stretch.“
Doubtful.
Reduced payroll by 100 million.
All-Star closer gone
All-Star generational LF, gone
Cy Young Ace, gone
No DH
Platooning LF
Playing the ‘we’re broke’ card.
By most definitions, Matt Carpenter does not belong under notable losses.
No reason the Padres can’t be in the wild card mix with 84 to 88 wins.
“Playing the ‘we’re broke card”…You can always spot the people that don’t really know much about baseball. It’s always endless personal attacks on team owners and they’re always whining for their team to aimlessly and recklessly “spend, spend, spend”, right towinagain?…I don’t know exactly what Padres team you’re watching, but the Pads probably had the best off-season of any team not named “Dodgers”. The Padres have an EXCELLENT chance to nab a wild card playoff spot, much higher than last year in my honest opinion. That was clearly one of your dumbest posts and you’ve made quite a few.
Yes, losing snell soto hader hurts… but adding cease, king and the sp and bp depth will definitely help. Plus thry get undrr the tax threshold so the penalties gi away.
Also, this is nitpicky, but i see musgrove as their ace over snell when healthy. Snell had an amazing year, but the three year numbers show musgrove better in most areas. I just don’t know how his shoulder is this year.
Glittering generalities and incessant generic drivel are what I have come to expect from your crowd MLBfan.
Accountability is what you want from your teams owners.
The facts speak for themselves. This Post Peter Seidler ownership group cut payroll by 100 million dollars.
‘Most active offseasons’ aren’t to be confused with ‘Best offseasons’.
Preller has done a heck of a job with the peanuts he has been given this offseason.
This team still lacks a full time LF/DH and true 1b.
No, this was not one of ‘the best offseasons’ in MLB.
A good one from what Preller had to work with, yes.
The Post Peter Seidler ownership does not deserve any credit for the masterful job Preller has done.
“Glittering generalities”..Get some new material, broham. Your act and material is dated and tired. The team owners don’t actually work for you, despite what you seem to think. Please do get over yourself.
Please dispel with your brutish assertions and engage in an actual dialogue.
I could care less and am not enamored in any way shape or form with myself.
I do in fact, want the Padres to bring San Diego it’s first professional sports championship.
Keeping ownership accountable is what will make winning a championship for SD a reality.
Just want a WS parade for the Padres, Padres fans and the city of San Diego.
And yes, ownership will reap the rewards of a WS championship.
So, yes, in essence I want what’s best for the Post Peter Seidler ownership group.
@Towin. It’s become apparent that you don’t understand why they had to cut payroll this year. But fortunately to all Padre fans, the payroll remains in top tier of MLB, and with CBT reset they plan to spend at highest levels again in upcoming years. If you preserve yourself you will see this to be true.
The Guardians’ offseason makes the Padres look extravagant. CLE is the poster child for broke, and nothing compares.
No reason to add a permanent DH when you can use DH to give key guys a day off from fielding but still keep their bat in the lineup
Machado
Bogaerts
Tatis Jr
Cronenworth
Kim
Could all see time at DH and keep them relatively fresh and healthy by limiting innings spent playing the field.
That seems to be the way to use the dh spot.
The 2024 Padres tagline -“You Think We’re Bad, Get A Load of The Rockies!” Ahahaha!
Geez guy…give it a rest. We all get it…you’re just a gloom and doom pseudo Padres “fan”
All you ever do is bloviate endlessly with your garbage diatribe.
Sorry…that was meant for towinagain
Until they address the
DH
LF
1b
Bench issue
Nope.
Tow- how dare the padres not roll out a team with 26 all stars.
You seem to expect them to have a 250+m dollar payroll and take out loans every year to cover it. Look at other teams payrolls in our market size. This year’s payroll is still very respectable. That’s before you consider they are trying to reset the tax. Your expectations are way too high. Plus you said they would even sign a single mlb player to a major league contract this year and you were wrong.
You should find another hobby besides complaining about the padres and their ownership. Which btw whose owner recently died.
Hey Simm, did you see the game?
Yeah I did, should have spent some more money on a better glove and we could have won. What’s your point.
The NL West best in MLB, even with Rockies as remora
Props to Brew’88 for using the word remora. I haven’t seen it since I looked at the lyrics of Fins by Jimmy Buffett.
I’m a biologist so rolls in my vocab, but seems catchy, Rocky Mtn Remoras? Just read the Fins lyrics, thanks, cool usage of the term!
Whether the NL West is the best division in MLB this year remains to be seen. It would require significant improvement as a division. Last year, the NL West was 404-406, the sane record as the NL Central. The difference between the NL West and the NL Central is that the West had a dominant team and a really weak team whereas the Central was more evenly matched, not to take anything away from the Brewers’ better record. The NL East was 424-386. The strongest division, by far, was the AL East at 449-361. For the NL West that is a lot of ground to make up.
As a division collective record within the division is always .500, the difference in their collective wins and losses is a measure of the division’s strength against the other divisions. While not a fan of the AL East, they were by far the most dominant division last year.
Winning the WS is not an indicator of a division’s strength, but rather of a team’s strength and luck.
@Skeptical. Good info, and of course we won’t know until season is over. Just my opinion at this point.
Woo Suk Go pushed them from a C to an A. Well done, Padres
Wonder if he’ll make the team OD, Go hasn’t been great
He will make the OD in Korea. The home opener is another story His STUFF has been great in ST, but his results have not. .
I was thinking OD in San Diego (26 squad), I know he’s on the traveling 31 squad. Starting him in minors might be best plan until me makes adjustments.
Yeah, I dont’ doubt his talent or ceiling, but I’m thinking that the difference between the KBO baseballs and MLB’s, plus the cultural adjustments, are hitting him pretty hard. It would in no way hurt to start him in the minors, take the spotlight off him for a while to get back into a groove, other than the 2024 MLB opportunities that would be missed (for both him and the Pads). As Shildt and Preller always stress, a ball player will tell you when he’s ready. If Go ain’t ready, do what’s best for him and the team. I think the MILB focus this year will be in AA, so that’s where I recommend they send him (not to mention, he doesn’t need to get bombed by playing in the “moonscape” conditions in AAA).
Yes don’t send him to El Paso, that would be so cruel
Can you imagine his “letters home” after being blasted off the face of the earth in El Paso for a month. “Dear Mom, the American major leagues are SO much harder than I expected. Everybody hits home runs or for extra bases. I wanna go back to the KBO ….” HaHaHaHaHa
You guys jinxed him.
D. Would’ve been higher but the massively overpaid for Cease but are relying on unproven names in multiple OF spots.
“Massively overpaid”
Lmao. No they didn’t.
1 back end top 100 prospect with #3-#5 potential
A reliever
And couple lottery tickets in Zavala and Iriarte who are a few years away
Isn’t a massive overpay for 2 years of control of Cease.
They fixed Snell. Fixed Hader. Revitalized Lugo as a starter.
People said the same thing when Padres dealt Patino Wilcox Hunt Mejia to the Rays for snell. 3 years later they’re eating humble pie.
As much as I hate to see Thorpe go, Cease has better track record and just as you’ve said, Padres could fix him
“Massively overpaid for Cease”..I’m a huge A.J Prellar critic, but in my honest opinion, the Dylan Cease acquisition was a “Master Class” in quietly laying in the weeds and then swooping in at the last minute to get your guy. This A.J Prellar critic was very impressed and the Pads have an excellent chance to nab a wild card playoff spot.
@Easy
I’ll admit that I thought that the Pads were strong enough with starters with the Yankee haul and Padres prospects (not that there are EVER enough pitchers). In Spring Training, they all looked pretty good.
However, reading analysis since the Cease trade, and mainly considering the innnigs he should be able to provide, it’s pretty obvious that they needed him. If Musgrove or Darvish go down, for a little while or the season, he provides some level of confort to be able to hold up the staff. Ultimately, like every season on every team, it’s the #4-#12 guys in the starting depth chart who will make or break starting pitching for the 2024 Padres. I think Cease increased depth to the point where I’m not worried about Padres starting pitching. They may not be 2023 level good (few teams are), but they won’t be the reason for a lost season. On the other than, particularly with shipping out Wilson, the bullpen has the most uncertainty. They have the arms for continguencies, but just in back end relievers alone, there are no real “locks”. All the proposed high leverage guys have major question marks next to their names.
I think CF and LF will work out. I think Manny will eventually be Manny. I think the 2024 Padre offense will produce (though, the 1-run wins in the Korean exhibition games and players in scoring position LOB, felt uncomfortably close to the 2023 Pads; the offense needs a blow out or two to get over that hump). I believe Chonie will return to form, and provide enough OBP & hit tool, plus GG defense from 1B, to contribute.
My main concern with the 2024 Padre squad is the bullpen. We’ll see how it all works out. Kind of excited to see them play, which is the biggest compliment any fan can make to a baseball team.
BTV says the Cease trade was about even
BTV is notoriously horrible at actually gauging trade value.
“BTV is notoriously”..People that need websites or software apps to analyze baseball, need to watch more baseball in my honest opinion.
How is the cease deal a massive overpay? Considering all the hype about the Sox asking price earlier this off-season preller has done pretty well in flipping Thorpe, some lower level guys and a middle reliever for cease. Didn’t give up any of their highest rated prospects here.
This is as C as it gets…..
If they don’t sign Pham idk what they’re doing also cronenworth at 1st doesn’t best utilize his value. Trading Kim for a package like Jorge Polanco moving cronenworth to second and signing someone for 1st like a belt/Votto platoon would’ve been good.
This guy is playing the show while making this comment.
Not sure how trading a position player for other needs and signing platoon bat(s) is considered unrealistic especially by AJ preller standards but alright.
Kim isn’t getting traded until the deadline and even that is only if the Padres aren’t in the race. I’d have traded him at the winter meetings to maximize the return but oh well.
So you’d trade Kim, an infielder for another infielder in polonco? Kim is miles ahead better than polonco. You could have said anybody but polonco, like a starter, or a very good outfielder, but you instead chose a player that plays the same position as Kim. That’s weird. I bet you are one of the only people in the whole world that would choose polonco over Kim. Plus he’s going to be there for the Korea series which is honestly awesome. Trading him for a player of the same position that isn’t as good and making him miss that series would be a huge pr problem.
SS Kim is probably worth at least 2 Polancos. No way he’s traded for that guy.
I meant for a package like the Jorge Polanco trade such as RP, young OF, starter depth.
Probably not since he’s got an extra year of control and I meant like the package they got for Polanco
No! I would have made the Cease trade a 3-team trade, traded Kim to the 3rd team, had them send some prospects to Chicago and kept Zavala and Iriarte (White Sox wouldn’t have wanted Kim because rental).
@Rally Goose
Yeah, I kind of agree with that thinking. It’s pretty clear that the Padres valued Kim higher than any other team seeking Kim, based on the trade opportunities that did or did not arrive. Certainly, moving Kim to SS was best for the team, i.e. he’s the best man in that position, from a roster full of experienced SS’s. But in Preller’s thinking, worst case (i.e. 2024 team underachives by the trade deadline, or some need arrives mandating a trade), showing Kim as an elite SS will boost his trade value. Best case, Kim does the GG think at SS, moves the Padres needle towards playoffs, and maybe even decides on an extension. With Merrill available for SS, my thought, too, was “yeah, the Pads need to move Kim for MLB pitching.
However, Kim is Kim, and he’s shown (based on his 7 years in the KBO and 4 years in the MLB at SD) that he’s just an rare, and elite infielder. I think the Pads WILL try to extend him, or be able to move him at the trade deadling for a high return (that MAY push the Pads over the top for the 2024 season).
I think one or the other of those scenerios is likely. Keeping him and letting him walk at the end of the season, less likely, unless the Pads are doing so well that they really don’t need anything to get to, and succeed in the playoffs.
@Rally
Preller made the trade that the White Sox wanted. You can speculate all you want on multi-team trades, but you don’t know what combinations Preller actually offered. This was the trade that was possible. Preller got what he needed, when he need it.
@OSUSN Just to clear up any confusion, Kim will not be traded if the Padres are in contention at the deadline. If he is traded it means the Padres are out of the race and he will be traded for prospects only. Certainly nothing that will “push the Pads over the top for the 2024 season.” When is the last time a team traded a 5+ WAR guy in-season and made it to the World Series? And why would a contender trade the Padres something that would “push them over the top” in-season?
Confusion Rally? Uhh … look in the mirror.
@OSUSN Awesome. Doesn’t even address my comment.
Kim isn’t getting traded unless the Padres are out of the race.
He also must be using vodka on his breakfast cereal instead of milk.
I’m still a bit flummoxed that they didn’t make a modest deal for a true cf. Guys were out there this offseason.
But they made bold move by developing and graduating Merrill. What FA CF would you have preferred?
Its not that I would have preferred a different guy in particular. It just feels a bit like a 11th hour dice rolling move to me. This merrill experiment is something that’s only really developed since camp started. He’s a great prospect, it’s a real gamble to take a guy this young and jump him from AA to mlb at an unfamiliar, key premium defensive position. It could work out, in which case I’d say they got lucky. But imo there are real reasons to be concerned that this could adversely impact merrill’s development and that the padres will be left with a big hole in cf come may or june.
Gotcha. Even with Merrill a question, I think they needed to bring in a LFer with a good bat more than a defensive CF. Azocar/Merrill fill that role (and any offense from them if bonus). But I don’t see a LF FA available who can move the needle offensively. I was hoping for a trade for a major OF upgrade. I think that might have to happen during season, but we’ll see how existing guys pan out.
@Pete
Merrill was either going to be blocked going into 2024, or an outfielder, (or maybe traded, who knows with AJP). The Pads were solving payroll problems, in part, by promoting ready prospects to the MLB club. There’s NEVER a good time to promote a prospect, based on the very low success rate of even top ranked prospects. It was time to promote Merrill, and he did everything asked, or he could, to make the decision for CF easy for the Pads.
If Merrill had hit .150, with a .200 OBP and committed 15 errors in the outfield, almost certainly, Preller would have make a move for an proven MLB CF. Merrill worked out (so far). I think Pauley may too, though Tyler Wade may start the season in that role, putting Pauley back in the minors to start, so management can see how that shakes out in a longer look. (Does Pauley continue to excell, from last year’s “burst” in performance? Does Wade continue to impress?).
Actually, I wasn’t at all surprised with guys like Marsee in the minors, and the Padres cash crunch, that they leaned to NRI’s and prospects for CF/LF. It made a lot of sense, and again, a lot of guys (prospects, NRI’s) had good Springs.
They recovered decently with the Cease trade but hard to recover from losing 5 of your top 7 pitchers in addition to your best position player!
King >> Lugo prior to 2023.
Cease = Snell.
So can Brito, Waldron, et al = Wacha? I think so. Their Stuff+ and Pitching+ is as good or better and Brito throws 98 mph.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg…
If we are talking about pure stuff, Suarez (17) is every bit as good as Hader (24) and throws 98-100. fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg… .
Beyond that the Padres picked up the #1 closer in the NPB and the #1 closer in the KBO to slot in as setup men, signed a setup guy with a sub-3.00 ERA the past 2 seasons, and added DLS, Estrada, and Vasquez to that pen. Padres pitching is going to be very, very good and possibly #1 overall in ERA once again in 2024.
I am more worried about Campusano staying healthy enough to play 100 games and how the LF situation will play out. Can Profar and whoever else plays LF put up league average offense?
Solid 84 win team
I believe the Padres had the worst Pythagorean deficit record in MLB. The 84 win Marlins were one of the best. By Pythagorean the Padres were about 15 games better than the Marlins.
B.
They had to get under the tax line
Signing Bogaerts last year cost them 1 mill in IFA money and pushed their draft slot back 10 slots from 15-25. They had to trade Dickerson to the Tigers for 500k ifa as a result of losing that money.
Going past luxury tax line again would have resulted in more penalties. Padres are currently 10 mill away or so and that has to last them all the way into November or whenever the new league year starts.
Padres were never in debt crisis as much as uniformed individuals on these threads want you to believe. “Padres were ordered to get into debt compliance!” As they proceed to spend 50 mill this off season in addition to money being spent on IFAs and draft. Yeah debt compliance lmao.
Anyways. Padres did best they could with limitations on spending
I like swapping Kim and Bogaerts
Wish they did better in LF but like the Merrill in CF move.
Pitching and defense seems to be the goal which can win you lots of games.
Will finish higher than the overrated diamondbacks and giants.
@Lib steve
Dunno, I think it’ll be a dogfight all season long in the NL West. I don’t think the Dodgers (or any of the others) will run away with the division. I think the Diamondbacks and SF will show well. No idea about the Rockies (poor Bud Black and the Rockies fans!). I have confidence on the Padres under Shildt.
Again, as I posted before, it should be a lot of fun to watch. Competitive, at the least. Even playing the Rockies should be … ah… an “adventure” playing in Denver. 🙂
I’m pretty sure they get 2 picks for losing Snell and (I only pitch when I feel like it)Hader. I have a lot of opinions about Preller, but I know he has done a good job in the draft so having two supplemental picks that is a good thing. As for this season I anticipate it being better than last year.
I used to like Melvin and then last year he seemed like he was mailing it in. He lost me when Kelly tried to hit Tatis with a pitch then cussed at him. Any decent manager would take offense to someone purposely throwing at his best player and do something about it. He didn’t have to have his pitcher bean Freeman or Betts, he just simply would have had to buzz the tower and send the message. He did nothing and showed he stopped caring. Schildt has impressed so far and is saying all the right things. I am hopeful he can get out of the players what Melvin was too indifferent to do.
Preller has done a great job drafting in recent years.. but because of the Padres exceeding the luxury tax in 2023.. the comp picks for Hader and Snell are post 4th round.. which arent that valuable.. but extra draft pool money helps.
It’s valuable if your team drafts as well as the padres. Graham Pauley has a chance to make the MLB team as a 13th-round draft pick in 2022.
Its also nearly $1 million in additional draft pool money.
Plus, Melvin just didn’t manage the games at all. He sat
This ^^^. 100%
Yeah, I don’t know why, but Melvin just seemed out of his element all 2023. That was honestly, uncharacteristic of the guy, considering his career history. Maybe he had an early beef with management that grated on him, maybe even something personal going on. Who knows?
It just seemed like he couldn’t control the team. “Listless” is how I would describe the whole of 2023 for the Pads, and that falls on the manager, IMHO. Don’t hate the guy, but 2023 is ultimately his failure.
Look at the difference between what Bochy could do with the Rangers, and Melvin with the 2023 Padres. (I wish Boch’ could have come back to the Pads, and if the timing was right, I think he would have. However, Bochy was honest, and said that he only really started getting healthy again (after back surgery, etc.) in 2023. I don’t think he was ready back when they hired Melvin. But anyhow, I don’t think 2023 would have happened like it did for the Pads, if Bochy had been at the helm.)
Yes. Everything about your comment, yes. Melvin came in as a godsend and left as a lame duck, do nothing, dunce. Its pretty infuriating when your franchise is going for it and your manager doesn’t seem to care at all. Complete indifference from the top-down in the clubhouse. Reading everything about Schildt seems a complete 180 to last year.
I think he gets trashed for his stubborness with AJP, but that’s probably overblown. It’s his game management that is most lacking. He managed the same way really in Oakland. Set his lineups, had a predetermined script for when to bring in relievers/PHitters, then went on autopilot.
He didn’t pay attention to opposition nor play game situations. It showed in Oakland during those playoff series. I find it weird that he’s going to SF given that in nearly every loss to SF in 2022 and 2023 Melvin was outcoached/outsmarted by Kapler (who was ironically canned)
Yeah, based on the Padres history (i.e. before Boch’) , I’m nervous about ANY new Padres manager. However, if you’re gonna pick a guy to run a team like the Pads, picking a Cardinals lifer and proven manager is about as safe a pick as you can get. I think they’ve proven “the Cardinals way” works for professional baseball. Schildt is bringing the same philosophy that he “grew up” on, to the Pads. He has credibility galore with the Pad vets, he’s been with the team the last two years and spent a whole lot of 1:1 with them, right down to the minors. He worked with Tatis in his comeback to the majors.
His “boring” profile probably wouldn’t work in a place like glitzy LA, but I think Shildt will work out well for the Padres.
Merrill seems like a CJ Abrams rush job remix and he was a disaster that initial year.
Merrill is a good prospect but he was ok in AA last year and hes learning CF on the fly.. Just doesnt seem like a solid recipe for success… just because he hit a bit in ST.
Merrill hit everywhere he’s played. If anything, the beef against him is that no one knows what’ll happen when he really hits a wall, like almost every major leaguer will do at some point. How will he adjust?
Well, what he’s done with his bat against the toughest MLB pitching available in Spring Training, and with his glove learning both the OF and CF on the fly, along with his consistent track record of success in the minors, has convinced Padres management that he’ll be able to handle it. Honestly, the vast majority of even high level prospects, bomb when they hit MLB competition. Merrill is unproven, until the proves it. That would be the case if they brought him up in 2024, 25, or whenever.
He looks good right now, and he’s exactly what the Padres need in CF, i.e. a ML minimum player who can cover the position, not a $35M a year “proven” MLB vet.
I’ve probably been A.J Prellar’s biggest critic, but I have to give that guy credit where credit is due; A.J Prellar can apparently pull off major trades even with his eyes closed. The way the Pads came out of nowhere, to acquire Dylan Cease was very, very impressive.
Agree. My gut says if Mr. Seidler is still with us, this doesn’t happen. Soto would still be a Padre. So AJ can’t get that haul from the Yanks … which, IMO, played a role in acquiring Cease.
The Padres had other prospects they could have traded besides Thorpe. That’s just the one they happened to trade.
Maybe, or White Sox said Thorpe definitely had to be in the deal?
Padres are in the hole by $97.3m from the 2 Soto trades, per BTV.
Looking at that in a vacuum doesn’t do anyone any good. Padres lowered payroll significantly. Merrill and Matsui have the chance to shine and produce a ton of surplus value. The Cease trade will also help.
It is indicative of absolutely atrocious asset management.
Ahhh yes, good old BTV, where trading gerrit cole for Trent Grisham was considered an overpay for the padres last season. Very credible site. FOH
Doesn’t really matter because Gerrit Cole isn’t realistically on the table and has a full NTC.
where trading gerrit cole for Trent Grisham was considered an overpay
======================
Do you think the Padres would be interested in trading for Cole’s contract?
At that point in time there’s no question Peter Seidler would’ve taken that contract.
Not sure he would have. Can his production be recreated in the aggregate for cheaper?
Well, gee, Rally, and I was just warming up to the idea that you knew something about major league baseball.
My regrets. I was wrong. I think it all back.
@OSUSN Lol. Look in a mirror sometime. Seidler isn’t going to take a large contract just to take a large contract if he thinks he can get that kind of production (which is going to decline mind you) for cheaper elsewhere.
Gerrit Cole was healthy and the best pitcher in the game at that point. Where else do you find that production? Might want to get checked out for dementia – I think you’re right that you’re forgetting about baseball.
@El Niño The idea d-bag is he’s not going to stay the best pitcher in the game for the duration of that contract yet will continue to be paid like he is. Heck, right now he needs TJ.
Justin Verlander says otherwise…or did you forget about him too?
Yeah. No one was paying Verlander that money *while* he was injured. And even now he’s not getting nearly that much in total guarantees.
You’re a clown dude. You know nothing about baseball. You keep rationalizing your dumb comments. Take care – do some soduku to help with your memory decline.
Using ad hominems means I win.
Does BTV include the revenue generated via ticket sales, jersey sales, marketing and promotions, etc…?
You mean the stuff that doesn’t matter?
You mean the only thing that matters to running a business.
I care more about winning. Soto still would have had to produce $126m in revenue on his own to justify the trade.
Stick to playing video games, kid.
“Kid” umm excuse me?
Running a global organization is much more complicated than winning/losing trades on mlb the show. “Kid” – you never actually *played* baseball…you remember Ken Griffey jr.? Not surprised at all.
Son, I have forgotten more about baseball than you will ever know.
Hahahahahaha. Riiight. Then why did you get triggered by “kid”?
1. Not triggered
2. That still doesn’t disprove what I just said.
You were the kid that kept score while everyone else played, huh?
Try harder little buddy.
“Son, I have forgotten more about baseball than you will ever know.”
… says every baseball ignorant duffus who ever lived.
The “son” touch was perfect, though. Really seals it in there, that a guy is trying to prove his “veteranness”. lol
@OSUSN Cool buddy. Anything constructive to add? If so, we’d obviously love to hear it. Otherwise, the door’s that way.
The entire premise of your argument is based on flawed logic. See @straightuphonestguy
@YankeesBleacherCreature Whatever you say. Enjoy losing Soto for a comp pick next winter!
Not sure how any Padres fan still defends the (first) Soto trade.
Some folks cannot admit being wrong.
My point is that if you’re gonna use a gimmicky site that assigns $ figures to “assets” to say the padres are “in the hole” by a $ figure then you also have to account for the revenue generated by said “asset” which they do not.
Soto didn’t generate $126m in revenue for the Padres on his own.
He didn’t “cost” 126 million either. Its a dumb gimmicky way to look at these things.
Who’s “in the hole” from the Blake snell trade? The padres because they didn’t win a World Series or the rays because none of the “assets” they acquired were good?
@El Niño They sent out $161.8m in surplus value, got back $64.5m in surplus value and paid Soto $28.7m while he was there. So $126m was the “real cost” of Juan Soto to the Padres.
So who’s “in the hole” from the Blake snell trade? How many millions did that cost?
And how much revenue did trading for Soto generate? How many fans will spend money on the team for the next decade because of customer loyalty that bought? (And yes in the business world customer loyalty is real and measurable)
@El Niño Well the only player the Rays still have from that trade is Wilcox and the Padres could have stolen him back in the Rule 5 draft if they wanted so I guess both teams. Unless the Padres hit on the Snell comp pick… lol
“And how much revenue did trading for Soto generate?”
Less than Abrams, Gore et al would have generated.
“Less than Abrams, Gore et al would have generated”
Just straight up making stuff up. 3 guys with no name recognition compared to a bonafide superstar. Valuing trades based on a silly sites “asset value estimation” is pure garbage.
The Padres obviously won the Snell trade and it’s not close, but I’d bet that site had the Padres “millions in the hole.” Think for yourself, don’t rely on gimmicks, the real world is more complex than what a free site can offer.
@El Niño I am thinking for myself and trading Grisham, Abrams, Gore, Hassell, Wood and Susana for King, Thorpe, Vasquez, Brito and Higashioka was stupid. They could have easily gotten those dudes for less.
No one whose opinion matters cares about “name recognition.” Name recognition was supposedly the reason they signed Eric Hosmer… lol
Gee, are all THREE “intow…” accounts posting at the same time. The comments seem written by the same guy, “legendary”, “rally”, and “intown…”. Well, life is like this, i.e. strange things happen …. 🙂
@OSUSN Not legendary or intown but thanks for your concern.
Aggregate surplus $/win is not the proper way to look at a trade of present for future value. Every team trading away present value should be finishing ahead of the team trading away future value because they are receiving more years of service control. In the first Soto trade, Washington got back a potential 29-32 years of service control (5.5 each for Gore/Abrams, 6-7 for Wood, Hassell III, and Susana) compared to the 2.5 they sent out. There’s no reason Washington shouldn’t come out ahead on their ledger.
The issue with taking aggregate surplus $/win is the limited roster spots (26-man and 40-man after Rule V elgibility). What good would stockpiling all of the minor league talent in the world be if you can’t play it, and eventually, can’t protect all of it? That means the minor league talent has to eventually replace the major league talent, either due to injury or performance.
So looking at the talent, the Padres couldn’t actually capitalize on Abrams value in 2022 except due to Tatis’ injury, and there were still questions where he would play once Tatis returned. He was the worst MI defender among the available options and the bat did not profile well enough for any corner position. Trading him was the obvious choice.
As for the rest? Gore is a stud and everyone can use premium pitching. While I’m a little hesitant on Wood’s profile, he’s got a pretty good chance of being an impact talent. Gotta give to get. Hassell III is a corner OF with no power. I don’t want to bag on the dude, but his path to the majors is very slim as things currently stand. However, he’s still young and costs Washington nothing in terms of roster resources for now. Susana is so far away that it’s pointless to speculate for or against.
I wanna be clear: I have no issue with people saying the Soto trade was the wrong asset to go all-in on. I think that’s a fair criticism, even if I personally disagree. Simplifying a trade like this to $/win is just too reductive.
@straightuphonestguy The Padres weren’t about to lose any of those dudes to the Rule 5 draft. And there’s always space for a 3.4 WAR guy.
The fact of the matter is the Padres traded assets for inferior assets and got nothing out of it. And I don’t want to hear about how “They had to clear Soto’s salary.” That was foreseeable!
Got nothing out of it is hindsight. They had Soto for 900 PAs and two potential playoff runs, and recall that at the time they believed they would be getting Tatis back shortly thereafter too.
Where would you play Abrams on the 2023 Padres? I’ll even spot you no Bogaerts signing. He was a worse defender than Kim at SS and a worse bat than Cronenworth at 2B. WAR is representing his positonally-adjusted value. His wOBA was ~.300 last year.
Soto’s arb3 salary was foreseeable, but Seidler’s death was not.
Well, for one thing, Abrams would have become a superstar stud IF/hitter if he’s stayed with the Padres. Cause we all know, the National’s (formerly Expos) can’t develop minor league players into even league average major leaguers! Abrams would have become the Padres SS starter, sending Kim back to the KBO for more work.
/sarcasm
@OSUSN Stop that. You’re bad at it.
@straightuphonestguy Seidler’s death was completely foreseeable. Hence his comment from like 2 years ago about how he can’t take his money with him when he dies.
They already have what, 6 natural shortstops on the roster? They can move around the diamond. So could Abrams.
You could play him around to LF, move Cronenworth to 1st, trade Grisham and put him in CF, etc., but all of those moves aren’t creating value — they’re just reallocating the positional value to whoever is filling in defensively. Thus far, Abrams bat is below-average. His glove at SS is either average by DRS or among the worst in the game by OAA. Where do you play him to maximize the roster value?
@straightuphonestguy That would be for the GM and manager to figure out. What you don’t do is trade him and others for a declining asset who you are just going to trade for 50 cents on the dollar 16 months later.
And if Abrams’ bat and glove are both so bad explain his 3.4 WAR.
I see your point; we disagree on this one. I will always commend a team going for it, and I think the Preller made lemons out of lemonade with the 2nd Soto trade given the general organizational shakeup since October. FWIW, neither Soto trade will come anywhere close to touching pre-arb Grandal for expensive and balky Kemp.
Make that lemons into lemonade.
@ straightuphonestguy The first Soto trade is certainly up there with Kemp, Myers and Upton.
Nah I think made lemons out of lemonade is more accurate.
I’m shocked, SHOCKED, that your coverage of the Padres’ best player, Fernando Tatis jr., was a bare mention. I guess the gold and platinum glove performance in his first year at the right field position was no great shakes?
He’d missed the entire 2022 season with a wrist injury and a suspension, capped the lost season with a follow-up wrist surgery and finally agreed to cleanup labrum surgery, and missed the first 20 games of the 2023 season to complete the suspension, and still managed to perform to 5.5 WAR.
With a full season to play and the recovery from the surgeries in the distant past, some are predicting a monster season from him, one that can carry a team. And he just turned 25 in January!
@Lorenzo. For the pundits it will take a mammoth offensive year from Tati to restore his rep as one of the best in the league. Its coming this year.
Yeah, Brew, and as much as I love that Tati kid, he’s earned that caution and reproach. In fact, the MLB hype that accompanied his entrance into the majors, really turned off many analysts, writers, and certainly, fans of other teams. I don’t believe his steroids were an accident, and I also don’t think he was trying to do a “Barry Bonds” short cut, either. I think he was so tired of sitting on the sidelines, injured, that he wanted to accelerate healing, and guarantee that he’d be back at the show in 2022. He screwed up.
He was young then, he’s young now, I believe he’s earned “forgiveness” in spades, but I can understand how others feel he still deserves a bad rap. Let him earn everything he deserves. Hey, he’s willing to take that on, too. It’s just another mountain for him to climb, and that kid NEEDS those mountains to inspire him to what he can be.
Given the constraints I thought Preller had a pretty good offseason. We will see how it goes, but if they can sign Pham that will help.
Pham doesn’t exactly fill a need for the Padres
Agreed. I hope the White Sox agree to a contract with Pham instead.
Lol, I hope Pham spends 2024 gambling at the casinos near his Las Vegas home, watching MLB on TV. (Well, not quite. I don’s wish any man evil, but I don’t want to see him in a Padres uniform again.)
Let’s roll, boys! Stay healthy
Lol, Gwynning, you win the MLB internet, today! Bravo Zulu!
*mug tap*
I’ve often said that SD and Preller are the most interesting (amusing) teams in BB, on par with the Rox. And I thought 2023 was just a terrible off-season for them.
But this is an easy A. SD got $60M+ thinner, added depth and pieces, have set themselves up nicely for 2025 and beyond, are under the cap, and aren’t really any worse than they were in 2023. I agree with the assessment that they are thin, but they might still be able to cover some injury/performance issues with their minor league depth.
E z A ! Spot on Joe
Yeah, I’d say more like an A-, or worse, a B+.
Preller did what he had to do, and honestly, he did what most predicted was impossible to do, to put a legitimately competitive team on the field for 2024.
(Well, that’s how I feel before game 1 has played. If they lose a half dozen to start the season, I’ll be screaming “FIRE THAT LOSER PRELLER” at my TV screen, lol!)
B. I liked their trades.
I’m biased, but I agree. Got Yankees to bid against themselves and brought in 2 years of a cheap workhorse without touching their top prospects. LF is dicey and while I’m excited about Merrill, I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach.
Looks like the only minor league signing with a shot at making the opening day roster is Tyler Wade.
Of the players claimed, only relievers Estrada and Kolek might make the opening day roster.
Merrill in CF and Profar in LF is actually pretty good. Profar has been above average as a Padre. I was not convinced about Merrill as the starter until I visited ST and saw him in person. He is going to be a star. Just has that “it” thing going. Glad they haven’t gone after guys like Pham or Duvall that would not be much of an upgrade if at all.
The Padres DIDN’T float Cronenworth in trade talks. Shildt and Preller were pretty clear about that.
Reasons Wilson was expendable in trade
Home – 1.51 ERA
Road – 6.02 ERA
and
Estrada – 0.00 ERA in 7.1 IP over 6 games in ST
This guy is a swing and miss type reliever. High SO rate.
Hmmm, well, Preller listens to EVERY offer, so we don’t really know if the Pads floated Crone, or if other teams floated offers to AJP hoping to pick him up, with cash back and some high level prospects, either. I don’t think the noise about Croney being on the trade block was all sports writers hype, there was probably something going on out there, it just didn’t make sense for the Padres. I think Croney will rebound in 2024. After that, with as many SS as the Pads have on the roster, if they can move him for a 1B or something else they need, they probably will. We’ll see.
Sign Alonso? Not many 1B that will be available that are better than Cronenworth.
Wade has taken me by surprise. But having watched a few games he looks quite polished. Not as surprised about Estrada, given his upside. Kolek has been lights out, wonder if he makes the 26. If he does they might need to deal with Go who hasn’t shown ML stuff.
I had never seen Wade play in person before and he does look very polished on defense. i looked a little deeper after we visited Peoria and at the plate he seems to be a spring training wonder that doesn’t hit nearly as well once the regular season starts. mlb.com/player/tyler-wade-642180
Kolek has looked really good. We will see what the roster will be at 6 pm tonight. 3 of the 5 extra that are on the travel roster don’t have to be optioned if they don’t make the opening day 26 man, so someone is getting an extra couple days.
I was surprised about how good Estrada was in the 2 games we saw him in. 96-98 mph with big time movement on both the 4 seam and slider. No one was even making solid contact in 2+ IP. I didn’t see anything that indicated he was that good in his stats on BR or Statcast.
Agree, like Wade. But then, it seems like EVERYBODY looks “polished” in Spring Training. Then the season starts, and … well, we’ve been there, seen that, lol.
Excellent summary of the offseason.
The 2023 Padre starters had the best ERA in the NL. Their main five were Snell, Musgrove, Darvish, Wacha, and Lugo.
I’d take this year’s starters over last year: Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, King, and Brito/Waldron. And this year’s staff cost about 50M less.
Agreed. Last year no one imagined Lugo or Wacha becoming aces of the staff, but I could see that outcome with Cease, and maybe even King (if you believe what he says). Anyway, as Gwynning said, here’s to good health. A break out from Campusano. MVP type season from Tati. Improved offense in CF (> Grish). Return to career norms from Manny, Bogey and Cronz. Go Pads, Go Aztecs
The best move that the Padres made this year wasn’t a player but getting Bob Melvin out the door. He checked out halfway through the season last year and Mike Shildt will actually be engaged as the manager and he won’t coodle players that only play for the name on the back instead of the name on the front.
100% agree. The Melvin for Schildt switch cannot be understated.
Pretty crap situation when you came off an NLCS appearance, added Bogearts, and were getting a full season of Soso, and despite all that your manager mails it in.
I gave them a B. I could see some saying a C.
The padres have cut payroll by around 80m from last year. Probably 50m was absolutely needed with the fallout losing their tv deal and not racking in any playoff money a year ago. Coupled with the desire to reset the tax.
The Soto trade hurt but also helped the padres. It’s the lion share of the money they saved plus it brought back some much needed pitching depth. Think they did pretty well in that trade all things considered.
Maybe it was good planning, maybe it was luck but we shall see. If Merrill can hold down center and continue his high end bat to balls skills in the majors he solves a huge problem for the padres. They needed a cheap lefty bat in center and they may have found it for nothing.
Padres rotation looks very solid, with some better depth than they had a year ago.
Pen also looks solid with good depth though I’m concerned if Suarez will be a lock down closer. If he is not this could be a real prob. They need 2022 Suarez and not 2023 Suarez.
The lineup mostly looks pretty good especially if Merrill can hold his own. Profar (LF) and 3b/dh depending on where manny is not at looks pretty weak atm. Perhaps eguy or Pauley step up and it’s fine but on paper right now LF and 3b/dh look pretty weak.
Padres really need to have Campusano build on how he played last year but his change in his stance has me a bit concerned that he will progress. He has a ton of potential, I don’t get why he changed his stance.
The biggest question mark for me is cronenworth. He has regressed at the plate for 3 straight year. He has made some needed adjustments this offseason. He can go back the 2-3 years ago cronenworth then that gives them a deeper lineup.
Overall I like the team. It’s got a few question marks but it also has some stars.
The padres farm system looks really good even after the cease trade. I don’t think the padres are done yet adding players. Perhaps it’s Pham which really just adds depth and perhaps a bit of an upgrade over profar in left. Though I could still see a trade for a different left fielder come together at the last minute before opening day in the states. Let’s be real preller has never been shy about making trades. He isn’t a prospect hugger (good or bad).
If the Padres can play as a team (which I think they will), can regress to the mean in extra innings and 1 run games I believe this is a 85-90 win team. I believe the NL west could be a crazy race for 2-3-4 between the dbacks, giants and padres. I see 2 of the three making the playoffs and one likely just missing out.
More glass half full than empty outlook.
Trading Thorpe for a fringe playoff rotation starter who consistently leads the league in BBs or hit batters was probably not a good move.
2.20 ERA in 2022. 3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and 97 starts the last 3 seasons. He is far more than a fringe playoff starter.
With a great defense behind him instead of the worst in baseball Cease will be better than he was with the White Sox the last 3 seasons. Which makes him a fringe Cy Young candidate.
Cease’s problem last year was walks. Having a great defense behind him won’t stop him from walking everyone.
Well.. ah… Snell made it work, after Niebla worked with him a bit. Juz saying … 🙂
Not saying that that profile can’t work (Snell proves that it can). Just that having the best defense in the world won’t matter if you walk everyone.
Your hyperbole is awful. 4-5 per 9 IP is not everyone.
His FIP was 3.72, so obviously bad defense mattered.
How many ground balls in play would be outs in SD instead of hits on the Southside? 40? Maybe more? How many earned runs does that save him?
He gets better as a pitcher with good defense behind him.
He walked LESS in 2023 (10.1%) than in 2022 10.4%). His problem was that more balls in play turned into hits than in 2022. That is a defense problem.
@Pads Fans So you’re either being pedantic or you genuinely don’t know what a figure of speech is. OBVIOUSLY he didn’t walk *literally* everyone.
Cease walked 3.82 batters per 9 in 2022 and 4.02 batters per 9 in 2023.
The bad defense and the walks were both problems for him in 2023. He has a similar profile to Snell and we already saw what Ruben can do with him so I’m hopefully optimistic Cease will do well.
Or you are being moronic in using hyperbole like that.
@Pads Fans And using ad hominems tells me all I need to know about you. Along with taking “everyone” literally.
@Pads Fans You do make a good point however that even in his Cy Young runner-up year he was “effectively wild” while in 2023 he was simply “wild.” We’ll see what Ruben can do with him.
The San Diego Padres. LOL!
Fraudnando
I think the innings count weighed the scale in favor of Cease. The Padres will still have a mostly young starting staff, i.e. particulary any of the #4=#12 starting options. They need a MLB vet who could give them 180+ innings, with most starts being quality starts. Cease can do that. He’s likely to regress to his norm, which maybe less than 2022, but a lot more than 2023. (Ironically, Cease and the Pads are a very good match. BOTH underachived in 2023! lol)
Anyone going to the watch party at Seven Mile tonight? I totally would if I didn’t have to work. Or maybe I can “call in sick” tomorrow 0_o
The San Diego Padres. LOL!