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The Opener

The Opener: Giants, Cubs, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 15, 2022 at 8:42am CDT

As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things to keep an eye on today:

1. With Correa on board, what’s next for San Francisco?

The Giants have agreed to terms with star shortstop Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract, which will install Correa as the face of the Giants franchise through his 40th birthday. Correa adds immediate impact to a team that desperately needs it following the retirement of Buster Posey last year. With that being said, the Giants will need to do more if they want to return to the postseason in 2023. While the Giants are adding a likely 5-win player in Correa, they also appear unlikely to re-sign Carlos Rodon at this point, who produced 6.2 fWAR for them last season. The additions of Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling should help offset that loss, and Mitch Haniger should bolster their outfield production. Still, there’s plenty left for San Francisco to do this offseason if they want to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. While an outfield unit of Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater and LaMonte Wade Jr. (plus likely designated hitter Joc Pederson) is solid, the Giants are nonetheless reportedly looking to add another outfielder. The free agent market for outfielders has begun to thin out, but there are still some interesting players available, including Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar. Additionally, the trade market has plenty of options, with the likes of Bryan Reynolds, Max Kepler, and Daulton Varsho drawing interest so far this offseason. Aside from the outfield, San Francisco is known to be interested in a late-inning bullpen arm to pair with incumbent closer Camilo Doval. While the Giants came up short in their pursuit of Kenley Jansen, other options remain on the market, such as Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, and Taylor Rogers, twin brother of Giants reliever Tyler Rogers.

2. Do the Cubs have more moves on the horizon?

Entering the offseason, there were high expectations for the Cubs, who performed surprisingly well in the second half of 2022 and were frequently speculated upon as a landing spot for a star shortstop. Flash forward to today, though, and the offseason hasn’t gone as many fans would have hoped. Correa, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts are all off the market along with potential fits at other positions, such as Christian Vazquez, Sean Murphy, and Kodai Senga. This offseason hasn’t been entirely quiet, as the club has added both outfielder Cody Bellinger and starter Jameson Taillon. While both are sensible additions to a roster with plenty of holes, it’s an open question whether these moves can even make up for the production lost by franchise catcher Willson Contreras moving on to sign with the division-rival Cardinals, much less set the Cubs up to attempt to return to the postseason. Dansby Swanson is still on the market, and the Cubs do appear to be a legitimate candidate to sign him, but he should have multiple suitors, including the Twins, who recently lost Correa. Owner Tom Ricketts pledged in August to be “very active in free agency” this offseason — comments that generally echoed his Oct. 2021 statement to fans, wherein he declared: “We commit to fielding a competitive team reflective of your unrivaled support.” If Taillon ends up as the Cubs’ most notable addition, that doesn’t necessarily line up with the expectations created by Ricketts himself in those public-facing comments.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If there’s still unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team burning in your mind, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting another chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and you can use the same link to check back in this afternoon and participate live once the chat begins.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Correa Fallout, Thor, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 14, 2022 at 8:17am CDT

On the heels of last night’s midnight megadeal, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. With Correa signed, are Rodon and Swanson next?

The 13-year deal Carlos Correa agreed to with the Giants last night takes yet another star player off the free-agent market. Will it loosen up the market for the top remaining names? Dansby Swanson already saw his market begin to heat up yesterday, and though the Giants are now presumably out after landing Correa, he has plenty of other suitors. The Cubs are perhaps at the top of the pile, but the Twins might be aggressive on Swanson now that they missed out on Correa. The Dodgers, Red Sox, and incumbent Braves loom as additional possibilities. While Correa’s signing doubtlessly clears the field for Swanson, it may impact Carlos Rodon even more. Rodon’s market, much like Correa’s, included both the Twins and the Giants. The prevailing theory was that neither team would be willing to spend what it took to land both stars. With Correa set to suit up for San Francisco, that appears to leave the Twins, Cardinals, and Yankees as the three frontrunners for Rodon. New York is rumored to be Rodon’s preferred destination, but reports suggest a significant gap between the two sides, with Rodon known to be looking for a seven-year deal in the $200MM range.

2. Thor’s market heating up?

According to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, the market for right-hander Noah Syndergaard began to heat up yesterday. Syndergaard had a solid if somewhat uninspiring season in 2022, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The righty posted a slightly above league average 3.94 ERA alongside a 3.83 FIP in 134 2/3 innings for the Angels and Phillies in 2022, but saw his fastball velocity decline dramatically; his heater averaged around 94 mph this year, down from nearly 98 mph on average in 2019. That contributed to a strikeout rate of just 16.8%, but Syndergaard paired it with a strong 5.5% walk rate and a fairly small 19.1% line drive rate. Ultimately, even if Syndergaard isn’t the same flamethrowing ace he was in his younger days, his still-above average fastball velocity and his pinpoint command make him a worthwhile investment for a team looking to fill out their rotation.

3. MLBTR chat today

Have the recent happenings on the hot stove raised questions for you? Are you wondering about what else you can expect your team to do before spring training starts in February? If so, you’ll want to tune at 5pm CT this evening for a live chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, where he will be taking questions from readers. If you have a question you’d like to drop in advance of the chat, you can use this link to submit a question. The same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today, if you’d like to check back in and participate live.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Catchers, Market Movement, Blue Jays

By Nick Deeds | December 13, 2022 at 9:29am CDT

The hot stove was busy yesterday, and here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:

1. Catching market update

The top trade target and free agent are off the board on the catching market, as Sean Murphy is headed to the Braves, and Christian Vazquez is set to sign with the Twins. With the Guardians, Cubs, Rays, and Astros among the teams looking to land a catcher, what options remain? On the free agent market, Omar Narvaez is likely the top option, with Tucker Barnhart and Mike Zunino also getting attention. On the trade market, the only clear seller behind the plate is the Blue Jays, who are expected to deal a member of their catching trio (Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno) at some point. The Astros (Korey Lee) and Guardians (Bo Naylor) both have catching prospects who could see more playing time in 2023, perhaps supported by the addition of a lower cost veteran like Barnhart or Austin Hedges. The Astros are also reportedly discussing a Daulton Varsho trade with the Diamondbacks, and Varsho, though more of an outfielder at this point, could still support a catching tandem of Lee and Martin Maldonado with an occasional appearance behind the plate. Other teams could also see the limited impactful options on the market behind the plate and take advantage by dangling one of their catchers. If the Braves get an offer to their liking regarding Travis d’Arnaud, he could be flipped elsewhere while the team pivots to sign a less-expensive backup to Murphy. The Padres could offer up one of Luis Campusano or Austin Nola, while the Rangers have MLB-ready catchers in Jonah Heim, Sam Huff, and Mitch Garver.

2. What deals could be coming down the pipeline?

After a fairly busy day on the hot stove yesterday, there’s plenty more moves that could be made in the near future. As previously mentioned, the Diamondbacks and the Astros are reportedly discussing trade of Varsho, while the Blue Jays are looking to move one of their catchers. Aside from those moves, the Yankees still have plenty to do this offseason, even after re-signing Aaron Judge. They reportedly a preparing a formal offer to the top free agent pitcher left on the market, Carlos Rodon, while engaging in trade discussions with teams in order to fill the hole in left field. Reportedly, they have interest in a deal with the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds and have talked to both the Twins and Diamondbacks about trades. Moving down the east coast, the Marlins have reportedly made an offer to third baseman Justin Turner, who could provide the team with a much needed boost to their offense. Sticking with small markets, the Pirates, despite re-signing catcher Tyler Heineman on a minor league deal, could still add a starting catcher to their club in the near future. Barnhart is known to be a name that interests Pittsburgh.

3. The Blue Jays added a starter — is a bat next?

The Blue Jays yesterday signed Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, fortifying a rotation that already contained Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. While the move improves their rotation in a significant way, they Jays are still in the market for a left-handed bat. A trade of Jansen, Kirk, or Moreno could end up playing a part in solving this part of the roster for the Jays, but they could potentially stand to add another bat to the outfield mix as well, with the DH slot relatively vacant. Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are both options who have previously been connected to Toronto, but Andrew Benintendi and Joey Gallo are also available on the free agent market, while the trade market offers options such as Reynolds and Max Kepler.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Correa, Rodon, Trade Market

By Nick Deeds | December 12, 2022 at 9:19am CDT

Fresh off the heels of an overnight signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. When will the Correa market heat up?

Now that Xander Bogaerts is in San Diego and Trea Turner is in Philadelphia — both on 11-year contracts — Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last two stars standing on the free agent shortstop market. With Swanson’s market potentially held up due to Correa’s lingering presence on the market, it begs the question of when Correa will sign. So far, the Giants, Cubs, and incumbent Twins appear to be Correa’s top suitors, while the Dodgers are known to be out of the Correa market. Correa’s market was likely being held up, to some extent, by San Francisco’s pursuit of Aaron Judge, but his market has remained fairly quiet since Judge agreed to a nine-year deal with the Yankees last week. It’s worth noting that in previous offseasons, agent Scott Boras has frequently been willing to allow negotiations for his top clients to stretch well into the new year in order to ensure they receive the best possible offer.

2. Rodon stands alone

With Kodai Senga set to pitch in Queens next season, the top pitcher on the market, Carlos Rodon, stands as not only the last remaining ace on the free agent market, but also the youngest option available, having just celebrated his 30th birthday over the weekend. The incumbent Giants could be moving on from Rodon, based on their late-night deal with Sean Manaea. Rodon, who is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal, still has plenty of rumored options available. The Yankees, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, and Blue Jays have all been mentioned as having interest in Rodon, while the Cardinals may be entering the market for the ace as well. The Mets and Rangers were previously known to have interest in Rodon, as well. However, the Mets have agreed to deals with three starters (Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Senga), while the Rangers have since signed both Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. It’s possible neither is aggressively pursuing Rodon at this point. With the rest of the top pitching market largely decided, Rodon may be the next domino to fall at the top of the free agent market this offseason. Chris Bassitt and Nathan Eovaldi are among the best alternative options available for teams in need of pitching who don’t land Rodon.

3. How long will the trade market stay dormant?

This year’s Winter Meetings saw a bonanza of activity on the free agent market, with over $2 billion in spending on free agents. That activity masked a trade market that’s been very quiet this offseason, and figures to heat up now that so many free agents have come off the board. The trade market is particularly flush with catchers, as Oakland has made Sean Murphy available while Toronto has fielded interest on their catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. There’s also a fair number of rumors on the outfield market, with Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade from the Pirates, the Twins drawing some interest in Max Kepler, and the Diamondbacks listening on their surplus of outfield talent. Elsewhere on the market, the Reds are reportedly interested in dealing some of their surplus of infield prospects for outfield prospects, while the Marlins are known to be entertaining offers on much of their pitching staff, including Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers. As teams begin to exhaust payroll space and as the supply of impact free agents continues to dwindle, trade talks figure to escalate.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Mets Spending, Nimmo Fallout, Relief Market

By Nick Deeds | December 9, 2022 at 8:50am CDT

After another day that saw a top free agent sign on with a club, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. How much more can the Mets spend?

Mets owner Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets among MLB ownership, and he hasn’t been afraid to use that to his organization’s advantage since he purchased the team in September of 2020. While this year’s collective bargaining agreement included a newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization, Cohen has yet to show much deference to that final, $293MM level. Instead, he’s given the green light to GM Billy Eppler’s front office on signing reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, lefty Jose Quintana, and set-up man David Robertson while also retaining closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo on massive contracts. Altogether, RosterResource pegs New York’s luxury tax line for 2023 at just over $335MM. That figure already has them set to pay more than $60MM in penalties — a figure higher than the entire payroll of the Pirates or A’s in 2022. With the team incurring such massive fees already, it’s fair to wonder if the Mets are approaching the limit of their payroll capacity — if there even is one. Notably, the Mets are reportedly still interesting in adding another starter to their rotation, like Kodai Senga or Chris Bassitt. As perhaps the two best pitchers on the free agent market behind ace Carlos Rodon, both Senga and Bassitt are sure to have more suitors than the Mets for their services, and that could make things complicated for New York. After all, they’ll pay a 90% tax on the AAV for any contract to which they sign Senga or Bassitt this year.

2. Where will center field-needy teams turn with Nimmo off the market?

Yesterday’s deal between the Mets and Nimmo raises more questions than those about the Mets’ payroll. Chief among those questions is where the center field market goes from here. With Nimmo and Cody Bellinger both off the market, the already thin free agent market at the position is nearly barren. Kevin Kiermaier is the top option still available, but he’s recovering from season-ending hip surgery. Those behind him, such as Rafael Ortega, Tyler Naquin, Adam Duvall, and Jackie Bradley Jr. appear to be miscast as everyday players in center, at least for any club with playoff aspirations. With the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Rockies, and Marlins among the teams in the hunt for a center fielder, it seems likely that at least some of those clubs will need to explore the trade market to find their next center fielder. The Diamondbacks are flush in center field options at or approaching the big league level, and are drawing interest in that group. Pirates star Bryan Reynolds recently requested a trade, though the Bucs apparently plan to hang onto him regardless. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is a premium right fielder with decent career grades in center, and he’s also drawn some trade interest. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins has long been the source of trade speculation, but given the Orioles’ shift to a win-now mentality, it’d likely take an overwhelming offer for them to even consider moving his remaining three years of club control.

3. Relief market keeps rolling

The relief pitching market has remained active, as Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin both signed deals with the Red Sox, Robertson landed in Queens, Tommy Kahnle returned to the Bronx, and both Brooks Raley and Joe Jimenez were traded in recent days. As early as November, there were signs that the market for relief pitching this offseason would be a robust one, from the megadeal between Diaz and the Mets to surprisingly strong contracts for both Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero. That strong market continued to play out with these deals, as the Red Sox paid out almost $50MM between Jansen and Martin, while both Kahnle and Robertson secured guarantees of more than $10MM despite recent injury struggles. Even with these players off the board, there still remains a number of quality options with late-inning experience on the free agent market, with Craig Kimbrel, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, and Adam Ottavino among the options left on the market.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Shortstops, Astros, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 8, 2022 at 8:52am CDT

With a frenzied Winter Meetings in the rear-view mirror, here are some things we’ll be watching around baseball throughout the day:

1. After Bogaerts stunner, what’s next for the shortstop market?

Late last night, the Padres and Xander Bogaerts agreed to a massive 11-year, $280MM deal. While things seemed to be progressing toward a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox as recently as yesterday afternoon, the Padres managed to pry away Boston’s longtime shortstop with a huge offer that runs through Bogaerts’ age-40 season, wildly surpassing even optimistic predictions; MLBTR predicted Bogaerts would receive a seven-year, $189MM deal. Such an expectation-shattering deal could certainly come with implications for the top remaining shortstops on the market, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. With Bogaerts approaching the $300MM mark, and fellow top shortstop Trea Turner reaching it, it seems reasonable to expect that Correa will surpass that benchmark. Swanson isn’t likely to push into that stratosphere, but he could also benefit and beat expectations — particularly given the wide breadth of teams still looking for a shortstop. The Cubs and Twins are both known to be in on both remaining shortstops, but they’re far from the only suitors, even with the Dodgers reportedly bowing out of the Correa market. The Giants are pursuing Correa after missing on Aaron Judge, while both the Red Sox and Cardinals have been linked to Swanson. However, both Boston and St. Louis made significant signings yesterday that could theoretically take them out of the inflated shortstop market: a deal with Willson Contreras for the Cardinals, and deals for both NPB star Masataka Yoshida and closer Kenley Jansen for the Red Sox.

2. Where will the Astros turn at catcher?

The aforementioned five-year, $87.5MM deal between Contreras and St. Louis leaves Houston in a difficult position, as they were the other main suitor for Contreras. The reigning World Series champs have a clear need at catcher, where Martin Maldonado and Korey Lee are the current tandem. The next-best free agent on the market, Christian Vazquez, has been clear about his desire to receive more playing time than he did following an August trade to Houston, where Maldonado remained the starter behind the plate even after Vazquez was accquired. This could leave the Astros pursuing cheaper options behind the plate, such as Tucker Barnhart, to whom they were recently connected. It’s also possible the Astros could dive into the trade market, where each of Sean Murphy, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno have been discussed in trade scenarios by their respective teams. The Astros have already been connected to Murphy in recent days, though the acquisition cost could be exorbitant for a division rival. Whether the Astros pursue a lower-tier free agent or a trade for a younger catcher, they won’t be spending anything close to the $87.5MM guarantee Contreras landed with the Cardinals. Given that, it’s possible the Astros could reallocate any money they had set aside for Contreras to other parts of the roster, whether that means signing a pitcher after reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander departed for the Mets, or bolstering their outfield corps with an outfielder like Brandon Nimmo or Andrew Benintendi, as they have been rumored to have interest in doing.

3. MLBTR Chat with Anthony Franco today at 1pm CT

After the whirlwind of the Winter Meetings, do you have any burning questions about your favorite team’s offseason? If so, tune in at 1pm CT for a live chat MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, where he will be taking questions from readers. With so much having happened in the past few days and a few of the biggest free agents on the market yet to sign, there’s plenty to talk about! You can submit a question in advance, and use that same link to check back and participate live.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Giants, Rule 5, Mid-Rotation Market

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2022 at 10:27am CDT

The stove is so hot that we couldn’t even get this post out this morning! Judge, Quintana, Jansen, Contreras! Here’s what else we’re looking at:

1. How Will The Giants React To Missing Out On Judge?

Perhaps the biggest news of the offseason came in this morning, as reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees on a monster contract. In yesterday’s Opener, we discussed how the Judge decision was likely holding up most of the remaining top players on the market. With Judge’s decision now made, it’s possible we’ll see movement on other top players, and any such movement will likely involve the Giants and Padres, the losing bidders on Judge. The Giants signed Mitch Haniger last night, but San Francisco will likely be thinking much bigger with regard to future pursuits, as they’ve been connected to Carlos Correa at the top of the shortstop market, have interest in bringing back Carlos Rodón, the top pitcher left on the market, and may turn to Brandon Nimmo in their pursuit of a second outfield signing. Nimmo, of course, is the top outfield free agent available now that Judge has signed. With the Giants reportedly having offered Judge a deal in the range of $360MM, they should have plenty of money available for pursuits of any of these top free agents.

2. The Rule 5 Draft Is Today

The Winter Meetings are set to end today, and they’ll likely feature the same flurry of activity the past two days had. Today won’t be entirely the same, however, as the Rule 5 draft will occur at 4 PM CT this afternoon. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Teams must have space on their 40-man to accommodate their Rule 5 selections. Currently, the 40-man rosters of the Angels, D-Backs, Rangers, Rays and Royals are full. This year’s Rule 5 draft is of particular note because the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft did not occur last year, leaving more players than usual freshly vulnerable in the draft this time. Between the Rule 5 draft and a likely third straight busy day of rumors and signings, the final day of this year’s Winter Meetings looks to be one to watch. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

3. Who’s Left On The Mid-Rotation Market?

Yesterday saw the market for mid-rotation starters heat up in a big way, as the Rangers signed Andrew Heaney, the Phillies inked Taijuan Walker and the Cubs landed Jameson Taillon. It isn’t slowing down today, with the Mets and José Quintana agreeing on a deal. Walker and Taillon landed similar deals of four years, with Walker’s $72MM slightly outdoing Taillon’s $68MM, while Heaney took a different approach to his free agency, settling for a guarantee of just two years, $25MM in order to secure an opt-out that will allow him to test free agency again next offseason if he so chooses. In any case, the deals indicate that the market has gotten much stronger for mid-rotation starters since Tyler Anderson’s three year, $39MM deal with the Angels last month. With prices soaring, the supply of mid-rotation options in free agency is shrinking rapidly, with Kodai Senga and Chris Bassitt the best options remaining behind Rodón, the last remaining ace. Looking a bit further down the free agency tier list, the likes of Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea also remain on the market. Any of these pitchers could see their markets heat up as the Winter Meetings come to a close, now that the mid-rotation market has been established and their fellow free agents are beginning to sign.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Top Free Agent Logjam, Cardinals, Draft Lottery

By Nick Deeds | December 6, 2022 at 9:03am CDT

With the Winter Meetings fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Will the logjam at the top of the market loosen?

Even after Trea Turner and Justin Verlander came off the board, much of the top of the free-agent market could hinge on Aaron Judge. With the full attention of two major-market teams on Judge — the Yankees and Giants — some players at the top of the market may not sign until the reigning AL MVP has made a decision. Carlos Rodon, for example, has received interest from both the Yankees and Giants. It would be reasonable for him to want to wait until Judge makes a decision, in case missing out on Judge puts additional pressure on the losing bidder to get a deal done with him. Brandon Nimmo, the second-best outfielder on the market, is in a similar position. While Turner signed ahead of Judge, it’s certainly possible that the rest of the shortstop market could be held up by Judge, too. The Giants are known to have interest in Carlos Correa, and the Yankees could conceivably pivot to the shortstop market should Judge depart. That could also gum things up for the Twins, who are aggressive in their attempts to retain Correa but could pivot to Xander Bogaerts if Correa leaves. The Cubs, meanwhile, have been connected to each of Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, with rumors yesterday even suggesting they could try and lure two of the three remaining shortstops to Wrigley. Though not as frequently connected to the shortstops as Chicago, the Cardinals have been mentioned as a potential suitor (for Swanson in particular), and the Dodgers could potentially look to replace Turner now that he’s agreed to join the Phillies.

2. Will the Cardinals find their catcher?

Yesterday, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the team hopes to have a new starting catcher by the end of the Winter Meetings tomorrow. The Cardinals have been connected to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as well as free agents such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez. The Cards are sure to have competition on all of these fronts, however. Murphy is being pursued by the Rays and Guardians, among other teams, while Contreras has been linked to the Astros repeatedly, with manager Dusty Baker noting the team’s interest. Vazquez, meanwhile, is known to have more than half a dozen suitors and may pursue a pact for as many as four years this offseason. Should St. Louis miss on these options, they could pivot to free-agent catchers in the next tier, such as Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez, or they could swing a trade with the Blue Jays, who are open to dealing a catcher with three on their roster: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno (with Jansen the most oft-rumored name to be available).

3. The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight.

In addition to the usual hot stove rumblings that accompany the Winter Meetings, at 7:30pm CT this evening, the inaugural MLB draft lottery will be held, where the top six spots in the 2023 MLB draft will be decided. The Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Royals each have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, but every team that missed the postseason in 2022 has a chance, however small, to pick first in next year’s draft. Looking at the larger lottery as a whole shows that Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh have an 81% chance to pick somewhere in the top six, while the Brewers, the team with the best record to miss the postseason, have just a 2.1% chance to pick in the top six. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

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The Opener

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The Opener: Winter Meetings, Top Arms, Murphy

By Nick Deeds | December 5, 2022 at 8:22am CDT

With the biggest event of the baseball offseason underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. The Winter Meetings are underway

Today marks the first full day of the Winter Meetings, with executives, agents, and players around baseball having convened in San Diego to do business. The day is sure to be rife with rumors fresh from the hot stove, with the potential for a new deal to break at any minute. Much of the focus is on Aaron Judge, particularly in the wake of multiple reports that he could have a deal in hand some point before the Winter Meetings end. The free-agent shortstop quartet of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will also dominate headlines this week, and Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that center fielder Brandon Nimmo is in San Diego for face-to-face meetings with interested teams. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

2. Could the top of the pitching market keep moving forward?

Jacob deGrom’s five-year deal with the Rangers takes one of the most talented pitchers on the planet off the free agent market, but two aces are still available to be signed: reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, and lefty ace Carlos Rodon. Both hurlers had phenomenal years in 2022, with Verlander’s 1.75 ERA in 2022 leading all of baseball and Rodon’s 2.25 FIP doing the same. The Mets appear to be among the most heavily involved on both players after losing deGrom to Texas, but they’re hardly lacking in competition. Verlander has been repeatedly connected to the Dodgers, and the Blue Jays been mentioned as another possible suitor for a second straight offseason. Rodon, on the other hand, reportedly has as many as nine teams interested, with the Orioles among those most recently connected to him. What’s more, the Rangers may still be interested in signing the lefty even after acquiring deGrom. While a team signing two players at the same position at the top of the market is typically rare, the Rangers should not be counted out, having done so as recently as last offseason when they inked both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to massive deals.

3. Will the A’s deal Murphy soon?

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos quashed rumors that his club could be on the verge of landing catcher Sean Murphy in a deal with the A’s last night, but Oakland is still actively discussing trades with several interested suitors. It’s been widely expected that the A’s will trade Murphy this offseason, with the team in the midst of a rebuild and flush with options behind the plate. Top prospect Shea Langeliers already reached the big league level in 2022, while fellow top prospect Tyler Soderstrom climbed from Class-A Advanced to Triple-A in 2022. The Guardians, Rays, Red Sox and Cardinals are among the teams known to have interest in Murphy, all of whom have the stockpile of prospects and young talent necessary to swing such a deal.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Winter Meetings, Relief Market, HOF

By Simon Hampton | December 2, 2022 at 8:42am CDT

Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on to wrap up the week…

1. Winter Meetings start this weekend

The Winter Meetings should see a thaw to the frigid hot stove thus far, and the glacial pace with which the offseason has moved should quicken. The annual meetings take place in San Diego this year between Dec. 4-7 and will bring key baseball operations leaders from all 30 teams, agents and media into one place. Several reports have suggested that AL MVP Aaron Judge could make his decision there, which could help to set the star-studded shortstop market in motion. It’ll also be interesting if top starters Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon find deals. There could well be blockbuster trades as well, with Oakland catcher Sean Murphy among the likeliest players to be moved this offseason. It’s not just deals either; on the 6th we’ll see the first MLB draft lottery, and that’ll be followed by the Rule 5 Draft on the 7th.

2. Relief market set to move?

It certainly seems so, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. He reports a “sense among some execs that a wave of second-tier is moving fast and on the cusp of landing deals”, citing the likes of Chris Martin and Miguel Castro as players in that group. Martin snuck onto MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents in 47th place, with a predicted deal of two-years, $14MM. As always, there’s plenty of options in middle-relief. Beyond Martin and Castro, the likes of Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Corey Knebel and Mychal Givens (among many others) remain unsigned at this point.

3. Hall of Fame results coming

On Sunday, the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Hall of Fame Committee will vote on eight former big league players to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. The contemporary era comprises players who contributed to the game between 1980 and the present day. The eight players are Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling. Players who receive more than 75% of the vote from the committee will be slated for induction into Cooperstown next July. This announcement runs separate to the usual Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame voting, which will be revealed in January.

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The Opener Chris Martin Miguel Castro

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