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The Opener

The Opener: Marlins, Mariners, Middle Infield

By Nick Deeds | December 29, 2022 at 8:00am CDT

With the new year fast approaching, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today:

1. Does the Segura signing signal more moves for Miami?

The Marlins have long been considered a likely participant in the trade market this offseason, with plenty of holes in the lineup and a deep rotation from which to deal. This speculation is sure to increase with last night’s signing of Jean Segura to a two-year, $17MM contract. While Segura seems like a good bet to improve Miami’s offense, he’s a curious positional fit for a team that already has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Miguel Rojas up the middle. Barring a position change on Segura’s part, it seems likely that Rojas will join fellow infielder Joey Wendle on the trading block. Rojas didn’t hit much in 2022 (72 OPS+) but could be attractive to teams looking for help at short as a glove-first, veteran option thanks to his strong defensive metrics last season that made him a finalist for the Gold Glove award. The Red Sox are known to have previously checked in on Rojas already this offseason, though the Marlins are said to have rebuffed Boston’s advances at the time. It’s possible Miami’s tune changes with the acquisition of Segura, though, particularly given the sides have since discussed Wendle in trade talks as well. Speculatively speaking, the White Sox could also make sense as a trade partner for one of Miami’s infielders given their hole at second base, while it’s possible the Angels could look to add a stronger glove to their shortstop mix than the current top options of Luis Rengifo and Gio Urshela.

2. Will the Mariners add a bat?

At the beginning of this offseason, there was something of a logjam in Seattle’s outfield, which was only exacerbated by their acquisition of Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays. Since then, however, the Mariners have shipped out Kyle Lewis and Jesse Winker in separate deals, leaving them in a position where it could behoove them to add another bat to their outfield/DH mix. As things stand, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, and Cooper Hummel appear to be the primary internal options set to mix and match between left field and DH, and the addition of another bat could solidify that mix considerably. That could come through free agency, as Jurickson Profar remains on the market as an everyday option, while the likes of David Peralta and AJ Pollock could be added as more complementary options. It would be no surprise, though, if the Mariners decided to explore the trade market, given the thinned out market for starting pitchers and Seattle’s willingness to deal one of Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzales to improve other areas of the roster. Should they choose to go this route, striking a deal with the Cardinals or Orioles could make some sense, as both teams have an excess of position player talent and could benefit from the addition of an arm like Flexen or Gonzales.

3. Where does the infield market stand now that Segura’s off the board?

With Segura joining the Marlins, the infield market has lost its best remaining bat. There are still plenty of teams in need of an infielder, though, even in addition to the aforementioned Red Sox, White Sox, and Angels. The Dodgers, Braves, and Twins could all stand to add an infielder after losing their starting shortstops to free agency earlier this offseason, while the Giants and Tigers could also stand to upgrade their infield mixes. Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison, and Evan Longoria represent the best options remaining across the infield, though players like Matt Duffy, Brian Anderson, and Cesar Hernandez could also be worth a look as potential bounce-back candidates. Shifting focus to the trade market, in addition to Miami, Baltimore could be another club to watch, as they could look to deal an infielder like Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urias to make room for their incoming infield prospects like Joey Ortiz, and it’s possible the Mets could look to deal Eduardo Escobar if the Carlos Correa deal makes it past the finish line.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Braves, SP Market, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 28, 2022 at 8:02am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball throughout the day today as the New Year approaches:

1. After extending Murphy, have the Braves maxed out their payroll?

The Braves agreed to a six-year, $73MM extension that could be taken to seven-years, $88MM if the Braves exercise a 2029 club option, locking one of the best catchers in the game up under team control for the rest of the 2020s. In inking Murphy to this deal, however, Atlanta finds itself projected to pay into the luxury tax for the first time in club history, per RosterResource. This isn’t entirely unexpected, as the Braves were reportedly considering exceeding the luxury tax threshold earlier this month, while ownership had previously mentioned fielding a top five payroll in the sport. RosterResource has Atlanta clocking in at the fifth-highest luxury tax figure in the majors after the Murphy deal, meaning they’ve already hit the point ownership has indicated to be comfortable spending by one metric, even though their actual projected 2023 payroll of $198MM ranks eighth in the majors. Should this be the upper limit of what the club’s budget will allow, that will leave Atlanta heading into the 2023 season with Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, and Jordan Luplow sharing time between left field and the DH slot (perhaps with Travis d’Arnaud chipping in at DH as well). It’s hardly a group that inspires confidence, though, so it’s possible that the Braves would explore the trade market for ways to shed salary and open up payroll space for another bat in the left field mix if they are unwilling to go farther beyond the luxury tax threshold.

2. The Starting Pitching Market Continues To Thin

The already-thin free agent market for starting pitchers just lost its top remaining option last night, as the Rangers signed Nathan Eovaldi to a two-year deal worth $34MM in a move that likely pushes Jake Odorizzi to the bullpen when the rotation is fully healthy. Eovaldi wasn’t the only pitcher to sign yesterday, either, as Rich Hill will join the twelfth club of his career in 2023 after signing a one-year, $8MM deal with the Pirates. As many as half a dozen teams out there have been connected to the starting pitching market this offseason are likely still looking for an arm, whether they’re clear contenders looking for depth such as the Dodgers, Padres, and Cardinals or they’re a team still looking to fill out the rotation such as the Orioles, Diamondbacks, or Angels. With so many teams still in the hunt for a starter and both Eovaldi and Hill landed with teams who weren’t seen as locks to add another pitcher to their rotations, that could open the door for teams with starting depth to take advantage on the trade market. This includes the Marlins, as we discussed in yesterday’s Opener, but other teams could jump in to capitalize on the thin market as well. The Mariners, for example, have been rumored to be willing to deal either Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen to improve the club in other areas, while the Twins and Guardians are among other teams that could have enough starting depth that they could feel comfortable dealing a starter. Still, the free agent market isn’t completely barren yet, as players such as Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, and Zack Greinke remain unsigned.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Have the recent moves this offseason left you with questions burning in your mind? Are you looking for answers about your favorite team’s direction? Or perhaps you simply missed the holiday chat hosted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk on Christmas Eve? Whatever the case may be, you can tune in at 3PM CST today, when MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a live chat and fielding questions from readers. You can submit a question in advance using this link, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins if you would like to check back and participate in real time.

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The Opener: D-Backs, Kepler, Marlins

By Nick Deeds | December 27, 2022 at 8:03am CDT

As the hot stove continues to warm back up after the holidays, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for Arizona following their trade with Toronto?

The trade last week that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto with Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. heading to Arizona in exchange brought to a conclusion two storylines that had stretched throughout the whole offseason to that point- that of the Diamondbacks trading one of their outfielders and that of the Blue Jays trading one of their catchers. Toronto could be mostly done after adding Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, Chris Bassitt, and Erik Swanson, but Arizona still has work to do to round out their roster, even after adding Kyle Lewis in a trade with the Mariners earlier this offseason. The D-Backs lineup looks fairly set at this point, but Mike Hazen’s front office has been said to be targeting relief pitching this offseason, and even though that didn’t come to pass in the Varsho deal, there’s plenty of free agent relievers left on the market for Arizona to choose from. Chief among them is former Diamondback Andrew Chafin, though others such as Michael Fulmer and Will Smith also remain available. Perhaps even more in need of additions than the relief corps is the rotation, however. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly combine to form a solid top of the rotation, and Madison Bumgarner is locked into a rotation spot toward the back, but the D-Backs could really use another arm or two to occupy the middle of their rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Johnny Cueto are the top options remaining on the free agent market, though a bounce-back candidate such as Wade Miley or Corey Kluber could also make sense.

2. Which teams remain a fit for a Kepler deal?

The Twins are known to have interest in dealing longtime right fielder Max Kepler this offseason, and it’s possible that, with the long-awaited outfield deal out of Arizona done, Kepler’s market could begin to heat up. The Yankees and Marlins both were known to have interest in Arizona’s outfielders prior to the Varsho deal, and if Arizona is done trading from its outfield corps then its possible either team could pivot to Kepler as a less expensive backup option. While the Dodgers and Braves are both known to have interest in upgrading their outfield mixes, the addition of Kepler’s $8.5MM salary in 2023 would be a complicated add for either team, making a deal unlikely. Perhaps the best fits for Kepler are the Rockies and Rangers, both teams in need of outfield help who could be improved by Kepler’s steady though unspectacular bat even if he fails to return to the solidly above average bat he was 2019-2020, when he posted a .831 OPS in 182 games.

3. When will the Marlins move an arm?

The Marlins are known to be shopping members of their starting rotation to other clubs in their search for improved offense, though they’ve made it clear both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are off-limits. Pablo Lopez is the most frequently discussed trade candidate in the Marlins rotation, but Trevor Rogers could make more sense for clubs with a longer path to contention, as he is under club control for two more years than Lopez, a free agent after the 2024 season. The Dodgers and Cardinals, as immediate clear contenders with solid rotations lacking in depth, seem like prime candidates to deal for Lopez, as such a deal would allow them to push Dustin May and Steven Matz, respectively, into swing roles. The Orioles and Diamondbacks, meanwhile, could make sense as partners in a Rogers trade. Both clubs are making pushes toward increased competitiveness in 2023, but face tough divisions that could limit their playoff opportunities in the near-term, making a longer term investment make more sense. Both teams are also in desperate need of rotation help; Arizona’s situation is detailed above, while Baltimore arguably downgraded the rotation by swapping out Jordan Lyles for Kyle Gibson when it was already the weakest part of their roster. All four of these clubs have the young, controllable position players/prospects who could be attractive to the Marlins as a return for one of their pitchers, as well.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Correa, SP Market, Rangers

By Nick Deeds | December 26, 2022 at 8:11am CDT

After an unsurprisingly quiet holiday weekend, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on as the hot stove turns back on around baseball today:

1. What will happen with the Correa-Mets deal followed renewed medical concerns?

News came out over the weekend revealing that the Mets had flagged a right ankle issue in their physical examination of Carlos Correa, which was the final step before the sides finalized a 12-year, $315MM pact. The issue is reportedly the same one that gave the Giants enough pause that their 13-year, $350MM agreement with Correa fell apart, which is what allowed the Mets to land Correa in the first place. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that a deal is still expected to get done, noting that other teams have checked in on Correa over the weekend, but the sides are still committed to working things out. Heyman suggests that language in the contract may be revised to accommodate New York’s concerns, as it was when the Red Sox had post-physical medical concerns while finalizing JD Martinez’s 5-year deal with the club before the 2018 season.

2. Are the last starters going to start coming off the board?

Reports about three of the top starting pitching targets left on the free agent market surfaced over the weekend, with Nathan Eovaldi being connected to the Padres, Angels, and an AL East mystery team, with the Angels also linked to Corey Kluber and the Padres also linked to Johnny Cueto. Both teams certainly make sense as landing spots for any of the aforementioned free agent starters; the Angels have solid options for five slots in their rotation, but have typically gone with a six-man rotation to accommodate their unicorn superstar Shohei Ohtani. The Padres, meanwhile, have a relatively thin rotation even after adding Seth Lugo, especially when compared to their incredibly deep lineup and strong bullpen. One factor that could mix up the starting pitching market, however, is the sudden willingness of the Red Sox to listen to offers on oft-injured ace Chris Sale. Sale was previously among the very best starters in the game, making trips to the All Star game and receiving Cy Young votes in seven straight seasons from 2012-2018. An array of injuries have largely kept Sale off the field from 2020-2022, however, with less than 50 innings pitched in that time. Sale surely offers more tantalizing upside than any other starter available, but if his injury woes continue, an acquiring club could be left on the hook for his hefty salary without much production to show for it.

3. Will the Rangers manage to add the bat they need?

The Rangers were reportedly a finalist for the services of Michael Conforto before he landed in San Francisco on a two-year deal. This leaves Texas in a place they’ve been all offseason: in desperate need of outfield help. Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia look like they can handle the lion’s share of starts in center field and right field, respectively, headed into the 2023 season. That still leaves left field as largely vacant, however, with Josh Smith and Brad Miller among a list of internal options who do not inspire confidence. Outside of a long shot trade for a big bat like Bryan Reynolds, the club seems likely to add a bat from free agency. The pickings at the position are slim at this point, though, with Jurickson Profar and Trey Mancini looking to be the only clear everyday players left available. Failing the addition of one of those two players, the Rangers could add multiple players in order to mix and match between left and DH, where Mitch Garver primarily played in 2022. Options for such a venture include Rafael Ortega, David Peralta, AJ Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen.

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The Opener: Christmas Signings, Correa, Dodgers

By Nick Deeds | December 23, 2022 at 8:11am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Last chance for moves before Christmas

During the offseason, major holidays are occasionally used by teams and players as soft deadlines for deals to get done. Some free agents like to know where they’re going to live next year before a holiday, and GMs at the one-yard line on a trade may have a little extra incentive to get it over the line before they go home to celebrate. The day before Thanksgiving was rather quiet this year, perhaps partially because the flood gates of transactions really only opened once the Winter Meetings had begun. Will it be different today, the Friday before Christmas weekend?

2. When will we hear how Correa’s physical yesterday went?

Carlos Correa reportedly underwent his physical with the Mets yesterday, a necessary step toward finalizing their 12-year, $315MM deal. This is a typical, routine step in a new deal with a club, but it has taken on added significance in this case. That’s because the Giants pulled back from their 13-year, $350MM agreement with Correa after flagging something in his physical with them, which is what opened the door for the Mets to swoop in in the first place. With Correa’s physical completed, the Mets are reportedly expected to take roughly 24-48 hours to review the information before the deal is finalized, meaning if all goes well, Correa should be a Met before Christmas. It will be worth watching to see if word comes down about how the physical went, as that news could be available as soon as today, and in the event the Mets do find something concerning, as the Giants did, it would be another shocking turn of events in what’s already become one of the strangest forays into free agency by a player in recent memory.

3. With newfound payroll certainty, how will the Dodgers conduct the rest of their offseason?

Yesterday, a decision was handed down that Dodgers right-hander Trevor Bauer would have his suspension reduced to 194 games. This leaves him reinstated ahead of the 2023 season, meaning that LA will be on the hook for most of his 2023 salary (Bauer’s pay has been docked for the first 50 games of the 2023 season, which cuts into his final payday considerably). The news leaves the Dodgers barely $100K under the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource, giving them essentially no breathing room if they wish to stay under the luxury tax, as has been rumored following their unusually quiet offseason. If they truly wish to stay under the tax this year rather than face penalties as a third-year offender, it’s possible they’ll have to consider moving salary out, whether that’s in the form of a smaller, one-year commitment like Daniel Hudson or a more significant contract like that of Chris Taylor. Such a move would represent a considerable shift from LA, who has been one of the league’s biggest spenders in recent years, but it wouldn’t be unheard of. Prior to the 2019 season, the Dodgers swung a massive deal with the Reds, sending Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and cash to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, Josiah Gray, and Jeter Downs. The trade ended up a resounding success for the Dodgers, as it allowed them to duck under the luxury tax for the 2019 season and acquire two prospects who would grow into top-100 types in LA’s farm system before being flipped in buy-side trade to acquire Mookie Betts, Max Scherzer, and Trea Turner. While it seems unlikely that another deal of this impactful could come together, it still shows the Dodgers are quite willing to get creative in an attempt to duck under the luxury tax for a year to reset their penalties.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Mets, Giants, Orioles

By Nick Deeds | December 22, 2022 at 8:14am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the baseball world today:

1. How many more moves do the Mets have in them?

After their jaw-dropping signing of Carlos Correa to play third base, the Mets made another pair of moves last night, shipping James McCann out to the Orioles and adding Danny Mendick on a $1MM deal. With Mets officials reportedly expecting Mendick to be ready for Opening Day on March 30th, his signing will likely further fuel speculation that Eduardo Escobar, who has already been pushed to the bench by Correa, could be the next veteran piece the Mets ship out. Correa’s signing also leaves Brett Baty and Mark Vientos blocked at third base. While both prospects can play other positions (Baty can play the outfield, while Vientos can profiles better at first or DH than third), Billy Eppler’s front office may be more willing to dangle them in trade talks now that they have a long-term answer at third base. Such a deal could inspire even more moves. For example, the Mets are already reportedly entertaining offers for Carlos Carrasco, and they would be even more motivated to do so if they landed another starting pitcher by trade, likely pushing Carrasco out of the starting rotation. Whatever specific moves they make from here, the Mets have been among the offseason’s most active teams, and they’ve shown no signs of slowing down as of yet.

2. Will we ever hear the Giants side of the Correa situation?

After the deal between Correa and the Giants fell apart due to medical concerns, Correa’s agent Scott Boras took to the media to explain his– and his client’s– side of the story. Boras characterizes the situation as San Francisco being concerned by an injury that predates Correa’s time in the majors, and says the Giants ultimately did not return to the negotiating table before Boras felt he needed to restart negotiations with other clubs, leading to Correa’s new deal with the Mets. The Giants, for their part, have been relatively quiet on the topic, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi simply noting that the team is not allowed to disclose confidential medical information. Still, given the unprecedented nature of the whole debacle and the confusion and frustration it has caused among the Giants faithful, fans surely are hoping for a more clear explanation and resolution to the whole ordeal in the coming days.

3. Will the Orioles deal from their position player surplus?

The Orioles offseason so far has been decently active, even if it hasn’t been to the level some fans were hoping for. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens have all agreed to one-year deals, while the organization picked up McCann to back up Adley Rutschman last night. Still, there’s much more to do in Baltimore in order to supplement a roster that surprised most by winning 83 games and avoiding a last place finish in the deeply competitive AL East last year. The most glaring hole in the team is the starting rotation, where only Dean Kremer posted an ERA below 4.00 last season, and Gibson may actually be a downgrade from innings-eater Jordan Lyles, who departed for Kansas City after the Orioles declined a 2023 team option for his services. Fortunately for the O’s and their fans, however, there’s plenty of interesting pieces in Baltimore who could draw trade interest from other clubs and make a deal possible. Slick-fielding shortstop Jorge Mateo is already known to have drawn trade interest from teams, but there’s other players who could be available as well. Ramon Urias won a Gold Glove for his work at third base in 2022, but it seems likely the pending arrival of infield prospects like Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz could push him out of an everyday role. The Marlins would make a particularly appealing trade partner for Baltimore, as they’re incredibly deep in rotation options but have a glaring need for bats, making the two clubs a seemingly perfect match to work out a deal. Otherwise, the Cubs and Red Sox could stand to add to their infield mixes, though Baltimore may be wary of trading with a division rival like Boston. While not necessarily on the lookout for bats, a team that lost their shortstop to free agency this offseason, such as the Dodgers or Braves, might have interest in Mateo’s glove at shortstop to supplement their internal options at the position.

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The Opener: Correa, Infield Market, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 21, 2022 at 8:09am CDT

Following an overnight stunner of a transaction, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. What will the fallout of Correa’s new deal be?

Carlos Correa and the Mets stunned the baseball world by coming to terms on a 12-year, $315MM contract last night, and a shakeup of this magnitude is certain to have ripple effects throughout the offseason and beyond. For the Mets, the addition of Correa pushes Eduardo Escobar out of the starting lineup while potentially blocking the advancement of top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, both of whom primarily play third base. This could potentially leave Escobar on the trade block, where he would join James McCann and Carlos Carrasco as players the Mets are listening on. Baty and Vientos, meanwhile, could still have paths to playing time in the majors. Baty can play left field in addition to third, while Vientos already appeared to profile better at first base or the DH slot than the hot corner. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets deal either player in pursuit of upgrades elsewhere, especially considering their interest in Liam Hendriks. As for the Giants, they’ve now lost out on pursuits of Correa, Aaron Judge, and Carlos Rodon in free agency this offseason, leaving them in a troubling position going forward. Though they’ve added quality complementary pieces such as Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea, their failure to add any of the top free agents leaves San Francisco lacking the star power necessary to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Perhaps the Giants will be able to get creative and use their unexpectedly available financial resources to acquire talent in trades, but failing that, they may have to set their eyes on next offseason’s free agent class, which also seems likely to have a great deal of star power at the top of the market.

2. Where does the infield market stand?

While Correa’s new home was the big news yesterday, the infield market has begun to heat up, with Brandon Drury landing in Anaheim on a two-year deal and Matt Carpenter headed to San Diego, just a few days after Justin Turner signed on in Boston. The Diamondbacks, White Sox, Cubs and Marlins are among the teams who could still be looking to add to their infield, and the free agent market still has some interesting options available. Jean Segura is perhaps the best infielder left on the market, though Evan Longoria, Donovan Solano, and Elvis Andrus are all still available as well. The rumor mill has been quiet regarding this group of players (though Longoria has been connected to Arizona), but with the market for infielders in a similar tier heating up in recent days, it’s possible the markets for these players could advance quickly.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Whether you missed out on yesterday’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams, or last night’s shocking Correa deal has raised new questions for you, don’t fret. Not only can you read the transcript of that chat here, but MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a live chat of his own today at 3:00 PM CT, where he will field questions from readers. You can submit a question in advance here, and the same link will take you to the chat once it’s live if you want to participate in real time.

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The Opener: Royals, Lyles, Braves, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 20, 2022 at 8:30am CDT

With the holiday season upon us, here’s a few things we’ll be keeping an eye throughout the day today around baseball:

1. The Royals and Jordan Lyles

Last night, reports came through that Jordan Lyles was nearing a two-year deal with the Royals. With Kansas City also having inked Ryan Yarbrough to a one-year deal, it’s possible this Lyles signing could take them out of the pitching market if completed. If that’s indeed the case, it would leave likely Hall of Famer Zack Greinke looking for a new club to play for during his age-39 season. Brady Singer, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Jackson Kowar are among Kansas City’s current options to start alongside Yarbrough and Lyles. A Lyles deal would also take yet another veteran back-end arm off of the free agent market, which has been thinning rapidly for weeks.

2. Will the Braves add another bat?

The Braves signed Jordan Luplow yesterday to bolster their outfield mix, but coming off a 101-win season and a fifth consecutive NL East crown, it would surely behoove Atlanta to do more to address the holes in their lineup. With Dansby Swanson having departed for Chicago in free agency, the Braves look set to hand the keys to shortstop to youngster Vaughn Grissom, with Orlando Arcia available should he struggle. While another bat capable of playing short could help solidify the position, the most glaring holes in the lineup are left field and DH, even after the addition of Luplow. The trio of Luplow, Marcell Ozuna, and Eddie Rosario who figure to man left field and DH combined for a troubling -2.3 bWAR in 2022. While improvements from Ozuna and Rosario are certainly possible, both players are on the wrong side of 30 and haven’t been above average with the bat in a full season since 2019. Even with Travis d’Arnaud likely to pick up extra playing time at DH following the acquisition of Sean Murphy, it seems clear that Atlanta needs another bat for the outfield, whether that comes via free agency in the form of Jurickson Profar or David Peralta, or perhaps through trade, where a number of outfielders are reportedly available.

3. MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams at 1pm CT today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting his weekly live chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit questions in advance if you like, and also use that link to check back at 1:00 and follow along live. If you can’t make it today, Anthony Franco will host a chat of his own later in the week, so keep an eye out for that one as well.

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The Opener: Shortstop, Smyly, Outfield

By Nick Deeds | December 19, 2022 at 8:38am CDT

After a fairly busy weekend on the MLB hot stove, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today.

1. Where can teams who missed out on Dansby Swanson turn?

Swanson’s deal with the Cubs puts all four of this offseason’s star shortstops on a new team. While each of the clubs who lost a shortstop has an internal alternative, all four would be bettered by an external addition. The Dodgers and Red Sox would be able to keep incumbent second basemen Gavin Lux and Trevor Story at their current position. The Twins wouldn’t have to rely on Kyle Farmer, likely better suited to a part-time role, as an everyday player while waiting for Royce Lewis to return from his second ACL tear. The Braves would be able to ease Vaughn Grissom in at shortstop rather than immediately thrust him into an everyday role on a playoff club. The pickings are slim when it comes to quality regulars on the free-agent market, with Elvis Andrus and perhaps Jose Iglesias the last remaining options. The trade market has more possibilities, though each comes with questions: Paul DeJong and Nick Ahmed could be had for salary relief, but they’re overpaid relative to their expected production headed into 2023 (and Ahmed is recovering from shoulder surgery). Jorge Mateo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are quality defenders but both have been further than 20% below average at the plate since 2021, by measure of wRC+. Amed Rosario is perhaps the most complete player who could potentially be had, though it’s possible the Guardians just keep him until he hits free agency next offseason before handing the keys to shortstop to their bevy of youngsters in 2024. The four aforementioned teams will have competition, as well, with the Angels and White Sox among the other teams who could still look for middle infield help this offseason.

2. Will the Cubs/Smyly deal get done today?

Reports surfaced yesterday that the Cubs and lefty Drew Smyly were close to a deal, but it’s yet to be reported as done, and the terms remain unknown. It’s possible that resolution could come as soon as today. Fellow 33-year-olds Ross Stripling’s (Giants) and Jose Quintana (Mets) both landed two-year deals, but both veterans were coming off stronger seasons than Smyly. On the other hand, the likes of Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard are among the players to recently sign one-year deals. Assuming Smyly indeed returns to Wrigley, that could take the Cubs out of the starting pitching market, as he’d presumably join Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele in the rotation.

3. Where does the outfield market stand?

It’s been a busy few days for the outfield market. Andrew Benintendi signed a five-year deal with the White Sox, Joey Gallo took a one-year deal with the Twins, and Michael Brantley returned to the Astros on a one-year pact of his own. This leaves Michael Conforto and Jurickson Profar as arguably the top free agents left, with veterans like David Peralta, AJ Pollock, Wil Myers and Andrew McCutchen also available. The Blue Jays, Rangers, and Marlins are among the teams pursuing outfield help this offseason, and each (along with the Cubs) has been linked to Conforto. Profar’s market is less clear, and one rumored suitor, the Astros, just re-signed Brantley. The trade market, where Bryan Reynolds, Max Kepler, and Daulton Varsho are among those who’ve reportedly been discussed, remains an alternative path.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Swanson, Blue Jays, Padres

By Nick Deeds | December 16, 2022 at 8:51am CDT

Coming off the heels of a day where we saw another major signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world throughout the day.

1. Swanson is the last man standing.

For a few days now, Dansby Swanson has been the last of the four star shortstops that hit the free agent market this offseason to remain available. Now, with lefty Carlos Rodon headed to the Yankees on a six-year deal, Swanson is the last top-tier free agent at any position. He’s one of just two players still on the market who ranked in the top 20 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents at the start of the offseason, joining No. 15 Andrew Benintendi. Swanson appears to be in a good position, with teams such as the Cubs, Twins, and Red Sox, who missed out on the other top-of-market free agents they’ve pursued, potentially in the market along with the incumbent Braves. MLBTR readers voted the Cubs, Braves and Twins (in that order) as the likeliest landing spots for Swanson in a poll yesterday.

2. When will the Blue Jays look to move a catcher?

The Blue Jays have been open to dealing one of their catchers throughout the offseason, and with the free agent catching market thinning out by the day, the Jays’ catchers are the top remaining options on either the trade or free-agent markets. Most recently, Omar Narvaez agreed to a deal to join the Mets yesterday, and Mike Zunino landed with the Guardians just a few days before. With Tucker Barnhart and Austin Hedges now among the best remaining options available behind the plate, it would be no wonder if catching-needy teams began to explore a trade with Toronto more aggressively. The Cubs are in need of a catcher to pair with Yan Gomes after Willson Contreras left for St. Louis, while the Astros were a finalist for Contreras and had interest in a trade for Sean Murphy, suggesting they’re a candidate to weigh a trade with the Blue Jays as well. Perhaps the most interesting partner would be the Diamondbacks, who were reportedly interested in Murphy and have a handful of big-league ready, lefty-hitting outfielders who could provide some much-needed balance to a lineup which is overwhelmingly right-handed.

3. Will San Diego’s aggressiveness continue?

San Diego has been one of the league’s most aggressive team for years now, and that hasn’t changed this offseason as they signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal last week. Still, it appears possible they could make even more additions to impact the team before Opening Day. The Padres, for instance, were reported finalists for righty Chris Bassitt, who ultimately signed with the Blue Jays on a three-year deal. It was a pursuit that made sense for San Diego; despite the strong trio of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell, the back of the rotation — which currently consists of Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon — has question marks. An additional starter, such as Nathan Eovaldi or Corey Kluber, could bump one of them to the bullpen and solidify the rotation. The Friars also appear to have interest in adding a corner outfield bat, with Jose Azocar currently projected for regular work in left field. However, recent trades have depleted San Diego’s once-stellar farm system, and Roster Resource already projects the Padres over the second tier of luxury tax for 2023, complicating their path to upgrades. Still, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again he should never be counted out of making another major move to improve his club.

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The Opener

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