We’re around the halfway point of the 2024 season. Trade season is still a couple weeks from getting fully underway. It’s an opportune time to refresh our ranking of the upcoming free agent class.
This is the second of at least three installments we’ll do over the course of the season. Steve Adams handled our initial write-up of the top 10 players back in mid-April. This is our attempt to capture a player’s earning power, so age is big factor. This is not strictly a list of the best players in the class, though talent is obviously the starting point. There’s no change in the top two spots, but the past few months have shuffled the next tiers.
Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. I worked with Steve and Darragh McDonald — with input from MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes — for this installment. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are eligible for the list. Stats are up to date through June 26.
1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees
No surprise here. Soto has been the crown jewel for years and is likely to go wire-to-wire as the top impending free agent. He continues to build what looks like a future Hall of Fame résumé. Soto has been an elite hitter from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old with the Nationals. That carried over upon his first blockbuster trade to the Padres and hasn’t changed in the Big Apple.
Soto is on pace for what might be the best season of his career. He’s hitting .303/.434/.567 across 357 plate appearances. As measured by wRC+, that offense is 85 percentage points better than league average and would be a personal high over a 162-game schedule. Soto has more walks than strikeouts for a fifth straight season. He already has 19 homers, giving him a chance to exceed last year’s career-high 35 longballs.
Not only is Soto one of the top three hitters in baseball, he’s firmly in his prime. He’ll play all of next season at 26, making him three to four years younger than a typical free agent. A signing team can realistically expect Soto to remain a top-flight hitter for the first seven to 10 years of a megadeal. While the calling card is obviously the bat, Soto has turned in decent defensive marks in the Bronx. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have credited him as a slightly above-average right fielder this season.
Soto turned down a reported $440MM extension offer from the Nats a few years ago — a decision that increasingly looks like it’ll pay off handsomely. Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has spoken of a willingness to negotiate an extension during the season, but it’d be downright shocking if Soto doesn’t test the market at this point. (The outfielder himself suggested as much on Tuesday.) The Yankees will certainly make a run at keeping him, while teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, etc. figure to be involved.
Soto will be three years younger than Shohei Ohtani was during his free agency. Soto isn’t likely to accept a deal with the kind of deferrals that Ohtani took, but he should handily beat the approximate $461MM net present value of the Ohtani contract. He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t at all be surprising if his camp at the Boras Corporation were aiming for something close to $600MM at the start of the winter.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
Burnes has been the top pitcher in the class for some time. He broke out with a 2.11 ERA during the shortened 2020 season and backed that up with an MLB-best 2.43 ERA with 234 strikeouts over 28 starts to claim the NL Cy Young the following year. Burnes punched out an NL-leading 243 hitters the following season before turning in a 3.39 earned run average during his final season in Milwaukee.
The Brewers traded the three-time All-Star to Baltimore in advance of his final year of arbitration. While Milwaukee has gotten good work out of rookie infielder Joey Ortiz (and acquired hard-throwing lefty DL Hall), the O’s can’t have any regrets with how the trade has played out. Burnes owns a 2.35 ERA across 99 2/3 innings. He’s on his way to a fifth straight top-10 Cy Young finish and should be a candidate to win the award for a second time.
Unlike with Soto, one can at least find a yellow flag on Burnes’ stat sheet. His swing-and-miss rate has dropped over the last year and a half. Burnes struck out more than 30% of batters faced in each season from 2020-22. Among pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch, only Carlos Rodón had a higher strikeout percentage than Burnes’ 33.4% mark. That dipped to 25.5% a year ago and currently sits at 23.9%, his lowest rate since his 2018 rookie campaign. He’s getting fewer whiffs on both his cutter and curveball than he did back in 2021-22.
Teams will at least take note of the drop-off in whiffs, but it’s not likely to have too detrimental an effect on Burnes’ market. His 95 MPH cutter velocity is still as strong as ever. The bottom-line results are among the best in the league. Burnes has pristine command and is very difficult for opponents to square up even as they’re getting a few more balls in play. While every pitcher comes with some level of health risk, Burnes’ only injured list stint in the last three and a half years came as a result of a positive Covid test.
Burnes will play all of next season at age 30. Aaron Nola landed seven years and $172MM last offseason going into his age-31 campaign. Burnes is a better pitcher. He should be able to find an eight-year deal that also runs through his age-37 season, and there’s a chance he gets to nine years. While Burnes will probably come up shy of the nine-year, $324MM deal which Gerrit Cole landed a few years ago, he shouldn’t have much issue surpassing the $200MM mark and could beat $250MM.
3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Adames is the biggest riser from the previous iteration of this list. We had him eighth in the class two months ago. Adames has since pulled away as the clear top shortstop and quite arguably the best infielder. The Brewers shortstop has rebounded from a pedestrian offensive season and is on pace for the best year of his career.
Over 353 plate appearances, the Dominican-born infielder owns a .238/.331/.423 slash line. He has 13 home runs and is drawing walks at a personal-high 12.2% clip. Most importantly, Adames is striking out 21% of the time. That’s trending as easily the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Whiffs have been the biggest question for the righty-hitting infielder. If he’s striking out at a league average pace, there aren’t many weaknesses to his game.
Adames has reached 20 home runs in all four full schedules he’s played. Barring injury, he’ll surpass that again and quite likely end in his customary 25-30 homer range. While Milwaukee’s American Family Field boosts power numbers, Adames has solid exit velocities and gets a lot of balls in the air. He has a decent approach and has incrementally improved his contact rate, particularly on pitches within the strike zone.
Even if Adames is more of a good hitter than an elite one, he’s a major asset on the other side of the ball. DRS and Statcast have graded him as one of the sport’s best infielders over the last six seasons. DRS has been bizarrely down on his defense this season, yet Statcast has had no such qualms. Most teams will view him as a plus or better defender, at least for the next few years. Adames turns 29 in September and should remain a sure-handed infielder with a good arm into his early-mid 30s.
On top of the well-rounded production, Adames has drawn rave reviews from teammates and coaches in both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee for his clubhouse acumen. It’s the kind of leadership and intangibles that teams love from a franchise shortstop. Players like Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Dansby Swanson all landed six- or seven-year deals between $140MM and $177MM with a broadly similar profile. None of those contracts have worked out quite as the signing team hoped — the Story and Báez deals have been unmitigated disasters — which could give teams pause. Yet those examples show the value teams place on a plus defensive shortstop with enough power to hit in the middle to upper third of a batting order.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Bregman’s platform year started rather inauspiciously. He hit .219/.280/.372 through the end of May, a stretch that briefly relegated him as far as sixth in the Houston batting order. Bregman was not only doing his market no favors, he was a major contributor to the Astros’ terrible start to the season.
Fortunes have changed in June for team and player alike. Bregman owns a .341/.404/.494 line through 94 plate appearances this month. His overall season slash is still fairly pedestrian, weighed down by his early-season swoon. He’s rounding into form though, and he remains one of the best hitters (non-Soto division) in the class.
Bregman has been an above-average hitter in all nine seasons of his career. His 41-homer season from 2019 looks like a clear outlier at least partially attributable to the juiced ball. Bregman has gone from an MVP candidate to “merely” a very good everyday third baseman. Over the past five seasons, he carries a .260/.355/.437 batting line — a wRC+ that checks in 23 percentage points better than league average.
Some teams could take issue with Bregman’s batted-ball profile. He has never had massive raw power that translates into eye-popping exit velocities. His game has been built around pristine strike zone feel and an innate ability to pull the ball in the air, thereby maximizing the power he does possess. This year’s 35.9% hard contact rate is below average. Bregman’s walk rate has also fallen sharply as he’s gotten a little more aggressive and pitchers have attacked him in the strike zone with higher frequency.
Bregman could wind up being something of a divisive free agent. The batted-ball data and drop in walks could strike some clubs as a harbinger of decline. Bregman’s camp will point to his preternatural contact skills, solid third base defense, excellent durability, and status as one of the faces of a team that has gotten to the ALCS in seven straight seasons. Bregman turns 31 around Opening Day and still has a shot at a six- or seven-year deal that could push into the $150MM range (or further, if he can continue his blistering June pace).
5. Max Fried, SP, Braves
A former seventh overall pick, Fried has been a top-of-the-rotation arm for most of his time in Atlanta. He turned in a 4.02 ERA in his first full season back in 2019. The southpaw hasn’t allowed more than 3.04 earned runs per nine in any of the five seasons since then. Fried got off to a rocky start this year, surrendering 11 runs in five innings over his first two outings. Set those aside, and he’s looked better than ever. Over his last 13 starts, he carries a 2.12 ERA while averaging 6.53 innings per game and holding opponents to a .191/.255/.254 batting line.
The way Fried succeeds is somewhat unconventional. He doesn’t miss bats at the level typically associated with an ace. Fried has punched out 23.8% of his opponents in his career and carries a 22.3% strikeout rate this season. That’s solid but not overwhelming. He excels behind plus command and elite contact management. Fried is routinely near the top of the league in limiting opponents’ exit velocities. He has never posted a ground-ball rate lower than 50% and is racking up grounders at a huge 60.6% clip this season.
Fried isn’t a peak Dallas Keuchel or Kyle Hendricks type who thrived despite middling velocity. He throws sufficiently hard, averaging nearly 94 MPH on his four-seam and sinker. His mid-70s curveball isn’t a power breaking pitch, but it generates so much movement that hitters have never been able to square it up. Statcast credits him with seven distinct offerings. He leans most heavily on the four-seam, curve, sinker and changeup.
Some teams could shy away from paying top-of-the-market money to a pitcher who doesn’t have elite whiff rates. Others could have some concern about Fried’s arm health. He lost three months of the 2023 season to a forearm strain. (He also has a Tommy John surgery on his résumé, although that came back in 2015 when he was a prospect.) While Fried has looked no worse for wear, that adds a little extra risk for an investment beginning in his age-31 season.
Fried’s camp will probably view the Nola and Rodón (six years, $162MM) deals as comparison points. Fried is a Southern California native, which has led some to speculate he could prefer to sign with a team on the west coast, though he hasn’t publicly tipped his hand on any geographical preferences. He and the Braves have kicked around extension terms a few times over the years without coming to an agreement.
6. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers
Fried’s high school teammate is the first player on this top-10 who didn’t crack the list in April. He was one of a number of rebound starting pitching targets in the class. Flaherty has pulled away from the group with a dominant first three months to his Detroit tenure. Through 14 starts, he carries a 2.92 earned run average. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters with a huge 14.2% swinging-strike rate.
It’s Flaherty’s best sustained stretch since the second half of the 2019 season, when he looked to be breaking out as one of the best pitchers in the game. The intervening four years were largely disappointments. Flaherty struggled to a 4.91 ERA during the shortened 2020 schedule. He lost extended chunks of the next two seasons to shoulder problems. The righty avoided the injured list last year but looked like a shell of his former self. He allowed nearly five earned runs per nine with a roughly average 22.8% strikeout rate between the Cardinals and Orioles. Baltimore used him in relief at times down the stretch.
MLBTR predicted Flaherty would land a mid-level three-year deal last offseason. Given his youth, that would’ve offered him a life-changing payday while still affording him the opportunity to return to the market ahead of his age-31 season. Instead, he bet on himself and took a straight one-year pact. That looks like it’ll pay out handsomely. A nine-figure contract could be on the table. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at five or even six years. It wouldn’t be without risk given the volatility of his career, but Flaherty arguably has a higher ceiling than any starter in the class beyond Burnes and Fried.
Like everyone else on this list, Flaherty is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. He’s likelier than any of the other top free agents to be traded this summer, which would take the QO off the table. (Players traded midseason cannot receive a qualifying offer.) The Tigers are still on the periphery of Wild Card contention but haven’t hit enough to be a bona fide contender. A deadline deal would allow Flaherty to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation.
7. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Alonso remains one of the sport’s preeminent power hitters. He has hit at least 37 homers in his four full seasons (and was on a 43-homer pace during the shortened season). He’s not quite at that level this year, connecting on 16 homers with a .465 slugging mark. That puts him at a 33-homer pace, although it wouldn’t at all be surprising if he outperforms that during the summer months.
Teams know what they’re getting with Alonso. He’s incredibly durable and has only had two minimal injured list stints as a big leaguer. He’s likely to hit 35+ homers in the middle of the lineup. The average and on-base marks are fairly pedestrian, but no one has more home runs than Alonso since he came into the league in 2019. Though his hard contact rate and average exit velocity are more ordinary than one might expect, no one questions his ability to hit for power in any stadium.
Alonso has a case as the second-best offensive player in the class. There’s not much value in the rest of the profile. He’s a below-average baserunner and a limited defender. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as an average first baseman over the course of his career; Statcast has him below average with the glove. Alonso is entering his age-30 season and will likely try to beat the Matt Olson (eight years, $168MM) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162MM with deferrals) contracts. He might need to move to designated hitter midway through a five- or six-year pact.
The Mets have maintained they want to keep their franchise first baseman. Alonso reportedly declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer during the 2023 season. (He’s earning $20.5MM this season in his final arbitration year, so he’d “only” need to top $137.5MM to come out ahead on that decision.) That reported offer came before the Mets hired David Stearns as president of baseball operations. The sides seem content to table discussions about a long-term deal until Alonso gets a chance to field offers from other teams. He seemed like a trade candidate when the Mets were floundering early in the season. That’s harder to envision now that New York has pulled themselves back into the Wild Card race.
8. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Padres
Kim is one of the top defensive players in the class. Public metrics have given him strong grades for his work all around the infield. The Padres liked Kim’s glove enough to fully commit to him as their shortstop this year, bumping Xander Bogaerts to the right side of the second base bag.
The offensive profile isn’t as exciting. Kim is a decent hitter whose game is built around excellent strike zone awareness and pure contact skills. Kim has walked nearly as often as he has gone down on strikes. A dismal .236 batting average on balls in play has depressed his overall output, as he’s hitting .223/.333/.385 across 328 plate appearances. While there’s surely some amount of poor fortune in that mark, Kim’s batted-ball metrics aren’t impressive. This season’s 35.5% hard contact rate, while a career high, is still a couple points below average. The South Korea native is on pace to top last year’s personal-high 17 home runs, but he’s probably never going to be a huge power threat.
After a poor first season at the MLB level, Kim was worth around four wins above replacement annually in the next two years. He’s on a similar pace in 2024. There’s probably not much more in terms of untapped upside, but Kim’s combination of contact skills, defense and baserunning (he has 53 stolen bases over the past two seasons) make him an above-average regular. He’s going into his age-29 season and could land a five-year contract in free agency.
9. Nick Pivetta, SP, Red Sox
One of the more volatile pitchers in the class, Pivetta has somewhat quietly excelled over the past calendar year. The right-hander’s performance has long lagged behind the quality of his stuff. It seemed as if he might always be too inconsistent despite flashing mid-rotation potential. As recently as last May, he looked as if he might pitch his way off the Red Sox’ roster entirely.
Things finally clicked for Pivetta after the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in mid-May last year. The former fourth-round draftee dominated in a multi-inning relief role. He continued overpowering hitters after the Sox returned him to the rotation for the final six weeks of the ’23 campaign. Pivetta has worked exclusively out of the rotation in 2024 and is still posting a gaudy strikeout and walk profile.
Over 11 starts, he owns a 4.06 earned run average. Pivetta has fanned 27.2% of batters faced against a 6.4% walk rate. He’s giving up a lofty 1.87 home runs per nine innings, leading to an unimpressive 4.42 FIP. Metrics that normalize HR/FB are far more bullish (3.43 SIERA, 3.56 xFIP). The longball has always been an issue and is a key reason he has never posted a sub-4.00 ERA season in the big leagues. Yet it’s possible a team falls in love with the stuff and the strikeouts.
Dating back to last year’s initial bullpen conversion, Pivetta touts a 3.48 ERA with a huge 32.1% strikeout rate across 160 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .202/.263/.388 in 639 plate appearances. Pivetta lost around a month this season to a flexor strain in his forearm. That’s a potential concern, but there wasn’t any structural damage and he has held up since being reinstated on May 8. Outside of virus-related placements, that was Pivetta’s first injured list stint in his MLB career. If the forearm issue is in the rearview, he looks like a volume innings eater with the stuff to be a No. 3 starter. Even going into his age-32 campaign, he’s got a shot at a four-year deal if he can sustain this K-BB% and keep his ERA at a reasonable level.
10. Luis Severino, SP, Mets
Severino jumped across town after a terrible final season with the Yankees. The two-time All-Star signed with the Mets on a pillow contract that guaranteed him $13MM. The early returns are good. Severino has turned in a 3.29 ERA while averaging six innings per start through his first 15 outings. It’s a marked improvement from the 6.65 ERA that ended his time in the Bronx.
If one looked no further than the ERA, it’d be easy to conclude that Severino is back to the No. 2/No. 3 form he’d shown for most of his Yankee tenure. It’s not that simple. Severino hasn’t recaptured the swing-and-miss stuff that essentially evaporated after 2022. This year’s 19% strikeout rate is a match for his 18.9% mark a season ago. His 8.5% swinging-strike percentage is down slightly from last season and trending towards a personal low. Rather than overpowering hitters the way he once did, Severino has gotten by with dramatically better batted-ball results than he had during his final season with the Yankees.
The 30-year-old deserves some credit for that. Severino has incorporated a sinker that he’s using around a quarter of the time. While the pitch doesn’t miss bats, it has helped increase his ground-ball rate to a career-high 50.8% clip. Hitters have also had a significantly harder time squaring up his four-seam fastball than they did last season. Severino has said he believed he was tipping his pitches last year.
There’s certainly some amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit .326 on balls in play last season; that’s all the way down to .252. His rate of home runs per fly-ball has more than halved (from 20.9% to 9.4%). That’s not all luck, but it’d be too optimistic to wave away the role of batted ball variance entirely. As is so often the case, the truth lies somewhere between the past two seasons.
Severino is not likely to secure the kind of nine-figure deal that once seemed attainable unless he dramatically improves the whiff rate. Still, there’s enough to like in the profile to warrant a three- or potentially four-year contract. Players like Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM) landed four-year guarantees around $70MM with similar career arcs. They’d been former top prospects who once looked like potential top-end arms before settling in as mid-rotation types without a ton of strikeouts. Severino, who turns 31 in February, could be following that trajectory. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer unless the Mets trade him.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Cody Bellinger*, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole *^, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernández, Clay Holmes, Danny Jansen, Max Kepler, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar, Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Christian Walker
* Denotes ineligible for a qualifying offer
^ Cole can opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract at season’s end, though if he signals his intent to do so, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth year at another $36MM. Because Cole was only recently reinstated from the injured list and because the Yankees can effectively veto his opt-out, we’re not including him on this installment. If, as the season wears on, he’s pitching well enough to trigger that opt-out and there’s talk of the Yankees allowing him to walk, he could land on future iterations.
“approximate $461MM net present value of the Ohtani contract”
Yes. Well done.
All long-term deals should be reported as present value
Oops
Except that’s not correct
Assuming a 4.5% rate
First, the $2 million per year would have a PV of $15.8 million
Then, the $68 million from 2034 to 2043 would have a PV of $346.5 million (don’t f9rget to discount them for being 10 years into the future).
Add those and get $362.3 million PV
If you go to the Ohtani section here, those are the calculations Anthony is referring to:
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
Tim
The $461 million figure does not appear there.
I’m assuming you are referring to this number
“46,076,768 for purposes of calculating average annual value for Competitive Balance Tax payroll, using a 4.43% rate (Oct. 2023), the annual IRS mid-term rate required by CBA Article XXIII(E)(6)”
But that’s annual value and not present value – which are two very different things
No, present value is the method of determining annual value for the CBT. It’s a standard financial calculation that tells how much money has to be set aside today in order to pay out a specified sum in a specified number of years. No present value number needed for the $2M per year being paid in the year(s) it is due.
The figure went adios.
Beisbol, were you filihok/Samuel at one point and changed your screen name?
BSLA
“No present value number needed for the $2M per year being paid in the year(s) it is due.”
Incorrect.
$2 million paid in 2025 is not worth the same as $2 million in 2024. Nor is $2 million paid in 2026 through 2033.
$20 million paid out over 10 years is not the same as $20 million paid out today.
And $68 million paid in 2043 is not the same as $68 million paid in 2034.
$680 million paid out over 10 years is not the same as $68 million paid out today.
The number presented is discounted. It IS NOT present value.
Gwynn
No
@CBeisbol Are you sure? You’re kinda sus.
BSLA
“how much money has to be set aside today in order to pay out a specified sum in a specified number of years.”
Given a 4.5% interest rate, and $2 million a year to be paid for 10 years and $68 million to be paid for the next 10 years after that, you would not need $460 million dollars today. You would need $362.3 million.
This is response is all over the park. The number is present value, absolutely, and this is true whether you understand the concept or not. That’s how true works.
You could argue a player who is, say, contracted for ten years at $30M per year is getting less value of money at the end of his contract than at the beginning. But if he’s being paid the $30M annual salary in each year of the contract, no present value calculation is needed or appropriate because it is understood that $30M ten years from now is worth less than $30M today. But this is still not a deferral. It is only a deferral if the salary is paid out after the service period of the contract.
“Given a 4.5% interest rate, and $2 million a year to be paid for 10 years and $68 million to be paid for the next 10 years after that, you would not need $460 million dollars today.”
===========================
I think you and the other posters are discussing similar, but different concepts. Even though discounting for CBT purposes, using NPV, it is a different calculation than NPV used for financial transactions.
As a simple example, for CBT purposes, a 10-year $100M contract paid over 10 years, has a CBT value of exactly $100M. If you were doing the same calculation for banking purposes, then that number would be substantially lower.
BSLA
“The number is present value, absolutely, ”
You are not correct.
“$30M ten years from now is worth less than $30M today. ”
The present value of that contract is not $300 million
Assuming a 4.5% discount rate, the present value of that contract is $237.4 million.
“no present value calculation is needed or appropriate”
It’s absolutely appropriate.
“It is only a deferral if the salary is paid out after the service period of the contract.”
Correct.
But what’s that have to do with present value?
The AAV value for CBT purposes, yes, is different
JoeBrady
Correct
BSLA is not talking about NPV, they are talking about the AAV calculation, it appears
One thing to add
The CBT cancellation specifically states that NPV isn’t used except for the deferred part, and then that’s still not a full NPV calculation.
That’s a specific way of calculating AAV for CBT purposes that was agreed upon.
Incorrect, incorrect, incorrect. A three-bagger.
Gwynning;
No.
Because I don’t get all hot-n-sweaty about how much money players will make in free agency.
Mostly I watch games and enjoy seeing what they do on the field.
Your feeling towards me are reciprocated on my part to you.
Have a nice day.
Now kiss!
Ewww!
BS
I’ll explain this as well as I can.
If you disagree, please tell me specifically how it is incorrect.
1) present value and annual average value are 2 different concepts, thus, they are calculated differently.
2) The annual average value of 10 $2 million per year payments is $2 million.
3) The present value of 10 $2 million per year payments is, about, given a 4.5% discount rate, $15.8 million.
4) Contracts that do not contain deferrals of over 10 years do not include discounted values for CBT purposes
5) Contracts that do include deferrals of over 10 years DO include discounted values for CBT purposes.
How do you know my feelings toward you, Samuel? I just thought you “3” all have similar posts and was trying to connect some dots. Anyway, have a great day as well bruv!
Too late, I already explained. You just ignored the explanation. So you want me to try again? No thanks.
No, you didn’t
Anyway, you’re a waste of time.
Adios
Yes, Gwynning, beisbol is filihok; no, samuel is simply samuel, and I’ve always enjoyed him because of his emphasis on baseball IQ, both from the players and front office. I wish he were a tad less grumpy, but he has a lot of good things to say, that don’t often get said around here
Concur, AstrosHT. Cheers
This explains everything.
I think it’s fair to assume Beisbol ditched the filihok account because he had nobody left to talk to…
Filihok
*blocked*
lol
Traded blocked for adios. He’s the Angel Hernandez of mlbtr.
Ah, yes most likely. Same snotty attitude and need to respond to everything at ridiculous length.
I’m always skeptical when players post great numbers in their walk years because they won’t have that same motivation after they sign. Still, Soto had been pretty damn good before this season, even if his defense sucked prior to this year. He’s going to sign the largest contract in MLB history in net-present day terms (he won’t beat 700 million, in other words). But if you’re going to sign him, you’d better be willing to pay the luxury tax every season or you won’t have enough left for a winning team. Yanks won’t sign him based on what Hal days about salaries being unsustainable. Maybe the Mets but I doubt them too cuz Stearns is more measured than Cohen and Cohen has already seen that one or two players don’t make you win in this sport. It ain’t the NBA. So who does that leave – the Dodgers?
I won’t count the Dodgers out, but their more pressing need is at SS. Not sure that Adames or Kim are up their alley, but if they acquire an everyday SS, Betts moves back to RF or 2B. There just aren’t many teams who can afford Soto. The Nationals make sense, but I’m not sure if that bridge was burned. I’m gonna say the Giants are my pick to land him.
As the article mentioned, it’s highly unlikely Soto will accept a deal with major deferrals, and assuming the Lerners haven’t sold, they will insist on deferrals for any signing. It’s a hallmark
of their ownership tenure. So even if the bridge with the Nats wasn’t officially burned, the Lerners will take care of seeing it through to its destruction.
@remeber So you think pro athletes made it where they are without being motivated??
coop – I respectfully disagree about the luxury tax. For instance the O’s could sign him and surround him with a championship-caliber team that would be under the CBT threshold.
I also think the Jays want to make a big splash and they would be even more motivated if they move Vladdy and/or Bo.
I really think it could be a team that hasn’t historically signed top free agents.
“He’s going to sign the largest contract in MLB history in net-present day terms”
I would not bet on that if that means above the Ohtani rating of $461 million.
Soto has zero defensive value. He does not pitch at all, forget pitch at an elite level and will be a full time DH in 3 or 4 years max.
A $400 million contract at a $40 millon AAV is a reach.
Heel – You’re assuming it will be a 10-year contract.
Most likely it will be a few years longer. maybe 13-14 years.
This site has Soto as a $40 million a year guy which is as delusional as Cody Bellinger signing for $250 million or more this past winter.
Soto shouldnt make more than Ohtani, but he will because that’s how baseball operates. If an elite player is available and within the realm of another elite player who got signed the year before, theyll do all they can to beat that figure even when its not warranted.
Cubs brass will feel a ton of pressure to get a legit stud bat next offseason, especially if selling to fans some of its position player prospects will fill multiple spots at a low price.
If they can trade off 1 or 2 pricey everyday players in July among Happ/Suzuki/Bellinger “if” they heat up a bit, that is the sort of payroll reshuffling that will make it feasible for execs to get owner signoff.
Snell sucks so bad he can’t even get an honorable mention. Clown.
I do not believe Blake Snell is a FA next year. He may however be a Clown.
He has an option.
“Has an option”…It’s a good thing that Blake Snell and not the Giants have the option, otherwise he’d be gone at the end of the year. He’s just another mislabeled, overhyped and misrepresented Scott Boras client who turned back into a pumpkin at midnight.
After Boras’s shenanigans finally caught up with him this past offseason, it will be interesting to see if he changes course. I suspect not.
mlb – I agree with you on Boras, but don’t you think some of Snell’s issues are related to not having a ST?
The teams that signed Snell and Monty did so more for the second half of this year and next year than for this year.
“Are related to not having a ST”…Of course. The
biggest issues for me are Snell not having a regular spring training, his lack of throwing strikes(walks too many) and year to year inconsistent performance. The lack of spring training is on Boras and Snell being a pitcher that rarely excels in back to back years is on him.
So does Bellinger but he was listed as an honorable mention.
An option to be a clown?
In a very short period of time he has morphed into Patrick Corbin which means he probably won’t opt out.
I don’t think he’s quite that bad. Corbin has been consistently terrible. This is Snell’s first season of being full blown trash.
I don’t believe Scherzer is eligible for a qualifying offer. Didn’t he receive one from Detroit in 2014?
Not necessarily relevant, but… I just read a stat. Snell has recorded 5 outs after the 7th inning… in his career.
Lofton
No, not relevant in a discussion about how good of a pitcher he is.
A pitcher who gave a team 6 shut out innings every start would be infinitely* more valuable than one who pitched to an expectation of 3 runs in 9 innings every start
*hyperbole
This is not a complaint. We are very happy in Dbacks’ Land that Christian Walker is so vastly underrated that the Dbacks stand a good chance to resign him next year!
Having said that up front, now compare and contrast Christian Walker to Pete Alonzo. Alonzo has 1 skill that he does very well, he hits home runs. As the article says, he is slow afoot and his defense is below average.
Compare Christian Walker’s stats. He has 2 straight 35+ HR and 100 RBI seasons, so equal to or better than Alonzo.
But wait! There’s more! Walker also has 2 straight Gold Glove Awards at 1b, and is on course for a 3rd straight Gold Glove. And not barely winning those Gold Glove awards, but so out distancing any other 1b there is actually no competition!
But wait! There’s more! He steals bases at a double digit rate per season.
Again, we’re not complaining in Dbacks’ Land that Walker is so vastly underrated. We really do want to keep him and the odds increase that we will because he is so overlooked. We just hope rival GMs equally underrate Walker.
Oh, I forgot to mention one other thing in Alonzo’s favor (I guess?). He plays in New York.
Scott
”
He has 2 straight 35+ HR and 100 RBI seasons, so equal to or better than Alonzo.”
Do you watch baseball? Presumably, yes. So, you know that home runs and RBI aren’t all that happens offensively. There are walks, singles, doubles, triples, etc
Take wOBA which says a HR > 3B > 2B > 1B > BB. And wRC+ which adjusts for stadiums and Alonso has been (127 to 123), and is projected to be (133 to 121) the better hitter for the rest of the season.
Yes, Walker’s base running and defense narrow the gap. They are, currently, two fairly comparable players
Alonso’s age makes him the more valuable player going forward
CBeisbol
I’m assuming from the fact that you only detail Alonzo’s wOBA that you are afraid to compare his with Walker’s! Or perhaps you think anyone other than a Met has a wOBA of zero?
Whichever it is you do,your comment proves absolutely nothing, except that you don’t watch baseball.
Scott
“I’m assuming from the fact that you only detail Alonzo’s wOBA that you are afraid to compare his with Walker’s! ”
What?
I did compare them
“Alonso has been (127 to 123), and is projected to be (133 to 121) the better hitter for the rest of the season.”
Yes, Walker currently has a slightly higher wOBA, but Alonso’s is projected to be better over the rest of the season by all the major projection systems.
Besides, wRC+ does the same thing but is even better by including ballpark adjustments (and comparing to league average). While that may not matter much for the rest of this season as they continue to play in their same respective home ballparks (unless one or both are traded next month), it certainly does matter when discussing their values in free agency.
Gwynning;
Oh, heavens!
Not a reference to “all the major projection systems”.
That’s your basis for making a point?
Until you can find a firm that has done an objective audit of the accuracy of their projections, you’re citing fairy dust with absolutely zero accountability as creditable.
Those projection systems are so far off it’s terrible. Over the past 10 years hitters OBP have been between .311 and .324 league-wide. I very much doubt that those projected systems have anywhere near that sort of prediction percentage based on my reading them every once in a while and looking back months later and seeing how far off they are.
Ballpark adjustments Shamallpark adjustments. Tell me where a hitter is batting in the order; what kind of offense his team is playing – smallball vs. smashmouth and all their variations; what their schedule is so we can determine the types of pitchers they’ve been facing; and most importantly – what the manager and the coaches are trying to get him to accomplish.
.
Should have be addressing Lanidrac.
As inaccurate as they can be, projections are still more accurate than assuming they will hit at the same respective levels for the rest of the season.
It’s impossible to predict that kind of future usage for free agents, since we don’t know where they’ll play next year, just as we don’t know which ballpark will be home for them. As such, neutralizing ballpark production to come closer to their true talent levels is MUCH more important in free agency value.
Samuel
“Until you can find a firm that has done an objective audit of the accuracy of their projections”
Here you go
“About half into the season, around 9% of all qualified (50 PA per month) players were hitting 40 points or less than their projections in an average of 271 PA. Their collective projection was .334 and their actual performance after 3 months and 271 PA was .283. Basically, these guys, despite being supposed league-average full-time players, stunk for 3 solid months. Surely, they would stink, or at least not be up to “par,” for the rest of the season. After all, wOBA at least starts to “stabilize” after almost 300 PA, right?
Well, these guys, just like the “cold” players after one month, hit .335 for the remainder of the season, 1 point better than their projection. So after 1 month or 3 months, their season-to-date performance tells us nothing that our up-to-date projection doesn’t tell us. ”
blogs.fangraphs.com/you-should-trust-the-projectio…
Whatever you may think of Alonso, he is not going to get what Olsen and Freeman got. He’s going to be another victim of the Boras blowback that began last season when the “Boras 4” all took lesser deals because of their agent’s value miscalculation and overreach.
@ scottaz Your point about Walker’s more complete game vs Alonso’s one-dimension is valid. But please keep it real and keep the facts straight when you when using them: As fine as Walker’s 35 HRs/100 RBI is, it is not “equal to or better than Alonso” in that category. not only is it less than Alonso’s production, Walker is doing that in a much more hitter-friendly park.
geofft
Thank you for getting my point.
If you were a GM and $25m/yr. to spend on a 1b, would you prefer to spend your money on a one dimensional talent? Or a well rounded performer?
Scott
The player who produced more in total, of course,
I’d absolutely take Alonso over Walker for the same price.
Alonso is the better hitter, and, being younger, is more likely to maintain that production
@ scottaz Now… you’re question is a bit disingenuous. You’re deliberately leaving out important specifics like the length of the contract and the ages of the players just to bait me into saying your guy is better.
I would absolutely sign Alonso to $25 million for three years. I’d be iffy on 4, and would not go any further than that. I don’t know that I would sign Walker to any more than two years (if that), as his age carries too big a risk that his performance drops off sooner. Plus, I don’t know how much the difference in ballparks and weather might affect him, not to mention the NY market and media coverage.
If that one-dimensional talent is so exceptional that it still makes him a similarly excellent overall player, and he’s over 3 1/2 years younger, then I’ll take that guy.
Lanidrac
Exactly.
Lanidrac and CBeisbol
Do you call a 123 vs. 127 split “so exceptional”? On what planet?
Do you call a 133 vs. 121 split “so exceptional”?
Again, on what planet? Yes there is a slight difference and Alonzo gets the nod over Walker, BUT a multi-year Gold Glover vs. a subpar, defensive liability on defense? THAT is an exceptional difference in favor of Walker and more than makes up for the slight difference in one cherry picked offensive stat.
Plus, again, Alonzo is a bases clogging, slow afoot deficiency, and Walker will steal double digit bases again the year. THAT too is exceptional in Walker’s favor. The only thing Alonzo has going for him is that he is a New York media darling.
133 vs 121 is something like .6 WAR/600 in offense and not cherry picked, that’s super relevant to this discussion. Their defensive and base running projections are about the same in Walker’s favor. It’s actually super close on paper. Take the difference in age and it’s likely Alonso gets the bigger contract.
FWIW, I’m not as sure how well Alonso actually ages, and I suspect is more likely to get overpaid, and think Walker could end up being the better deal overall due to that, but his age is an issue unless it’s 2-3 years max.
Scott
You’re arguing with yourself, I guess
Here’s what I said
“Walker’s base running and defense narrow the gap. They are, currently, two fairly comparable players”
FG projections have them basically equal over the rest of the year
On the planet that considers the players’ overall track records, projections, home ballparks, and ages rather than cherry-picking the last 3 months of basic offensive production.
Yes, a 133 vs. 121 spilt for a plus/minus stat is indeed quite a big difference.
Using just wRC+ for offense is NOT cherry-picking, as it and wOBA are specifically designed to analyze a player’s entire hitting abilities on a rate basis.
Walker is certainly a better defender and baserunner, but Alonso makes up for it with better hitting (again, with the whole picture of their true talent levels) to where they generally provide similar overall value. The fact that Alonso is significantly younger is the tie breaker.
I would take Walker over Alonzo.
Yankee Clipper: Especially for less money. Makes perfect sense. Same with Hoskins.
*ALONSO. Baseball Reference is your friend as well.
Alonso is better and younger, and i like walker but lets be real (though i wouldnt pay alonso what he wants). Even just last three years, alonso still has the clear edge in WRC+ (131-122) and OPS+ (134-124). He’s also the better run producer, which does matter. His career ops w RISP (924) and men on (881) is much higher than walkers (758 and 780). Walker the better defender but doesn’t make up for the offensive gap.
scottaz: And being out yonder, y’all in Phoenix don’t know enough to check Baseball Reference for ALONSO’s actual name.
I don’t think you’d get pushback from any of the four of us from MLBTR that contributed to these rankings that Walker is the better player right now. The lone reason Alonso is on the list and Walker is an honorable mention is that we’re basing this on earning power, as the introduction lays out, and Alonso is four years younger.
Teams are already wary of paying players who are limited to the corners — first base specifically — over the long term. A contract beginning in Walker’s age-34 season is almost certainly going to be capped at three years. I’d say there’s a small (5%?) chance he could push to four.
In Alonso’s case, he’ll start his new contract in his age-30 season. A four-year deal is more of a floor for him. Five should be there, and six or even seven is at least plausible, depending on how he finishes.
They’re both good players. Alonso has more raw power but less defensive and baserunning value. If they were the same age, or even if Walker was 31-32 years old, it’d be a more interesting debate. But with a four-year age gap, Alonso’s earning power is just drastically higher.
Fully agree that Walker is among the most underrated players in the sport though. I’ve been singing his praises since 2020:
mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/dbacks-rumors-paul-gold…
Thanks Steve. Your analysis is spot on.
I began by saying I wasn’t complaining, and I’m not. I do enjoy engaging with others who vastly overrate players, and I think Alonso, though he is good and has big time earning power, is a vastly overrated player.
Watching the Dbacks play regularly has given me an appreciation for what an exceptional, well rounded player Christian Walker is. And when I compare him to other 1b, I just don’t see his equal. I get that Walker was a late bloomer who labored behind established stars on 3 different teams before he got his chance to start, so his career production doesn’t match others. But looking at him today (not future earning power, or future projections), he is head and shoulders a better all around 1b than any other 1b in the league!
Scott
“enjoy engaging with others who vastly overrate players,”
So, yourself?
Because: “he is head and shoulders a better all around 1b than any other 1b in the league!”
“Watching the Dbacks play regularly has given me an appreciation for what an exceptional, well rounded player Christian Walker is. And when I compare him to other 1b, I just don’t see his equal.”
And here’s the problem that, ironically, the “I watch the games” crowd can’t see. You watch all of Walker’s games – great, Do you watch all of every other first baseman’s games? If not, your opinion, by definition, is biased.
Scott
Come on!
Steve said the exact same thing that Landriac and I said
CBeisbol
Yes he did and yes you did.
Did you read my opening line? I’m not complaining, and I’m certainly not trying to “win an argument “ with you and Landriac. I’m just trying to raise awareness by engaging in discussions. If you prefer to think of all of these exchanges in terms of “win/lose”, then that’s your thing.
Please note that Steve also said that Walker is the better 1b, but his article focused on which players have greater earning power in the upcoming Free Agency period. Obviously, Alonso has that. But I will still qualify that by saying that greater earning power does NOT equate to better 1b.
Scott
Did I say anything about winning or losing the argument? I don’t think so
We are all, except you, I think, saying that Alonso and Walker are comparable right now but that Alonso, being younger, is likely going to be more productive going forward.
CBeisbol
I’m sorry, but your summary is wrong on so many points. First, (now mind you I have no issue at all if literally everyone disagrees with me, my ego strengths can handle that just fine) “all” is not accurate. I would agree “most” or “the majority” of the people commenting on this thread agree with you.
Second, what is your definition of “productive”? If, as it seems it is, you mean more years of higher wOBA, you are probably right. But my definition of “production” or “productivity” is very different from yours. Yours is way too one dimensional for me. I like players who can play defense at an elite level, run the bases well, AND produce offensively. I’m not totally in love with HR, although they are nice.
And third, I’m happy you feel supremely confident in number projections, but I don’t. I don’t think there is any guarantee that EITHER Alonso or Walker will be “more productive going forward”. So I don’t base my case on future projections.
I am happy to read that you moved from Alonso’s superiority to “that Alonso and Walker are comparable right now”
Scott
“you moved from Alonso’s superiority”
Please scroll up and copy the post the comment of mine that you have interpreted as me saying Alonzo was superior. Thank you in advance.
“Second, what is your definition of “productive”? ”
The number of runs a player provides their team through hitting, base running, pitching and defense,
” I don’t think there is any guarantee that EITHER Alonso or Walker will be “more productive going forward””
Guarantee? Of course not
Lanidrac
23 hours ago
If that one-dimensional talent is so exceptional that it still makes him a similarly excellent overall player, and he’s over 3 1/2 years younger, then I’ll take that guy.
Your response to Lanidrac
Lanidrac
Exactly
Scott
Wait?
You think this
“similarly excellent overall player”
Is saying this
“Alonso’s superiority”
???
How?
@ScottAZ
I was very unhappy when the Orioles let Christian Walker go, on the grounds that, I don’t know, they were stupid or something.
I am very happy he was so successful in Arizona, and exceedingly unhappy that he didn’t have a chance for the same success in Baltimore.
Good on you!
Having adames ranked that high is questionable, he isn’t even all star caliber
Surprised at how far Alonso has fallen, these past 2 below average years are concerning
Rhys Hoskins deserves to be on the honorable mention list. His injury is short-term. He’ll be back soon. So far he’s on track to do about what he always does…
Maybe he’ll go back to the high flyin’ Phillies. I’m sure honorary co-owner Bryce Harper would green light such a signing.
I would love Rhys back in Philly. Harper would have to go back to the OF though, along with being able to move Casty in a trade. The only other possible way to get Hoskins back in the lineup would be to trade Schwarber and keep Harper at first base. As much I love Rhys, it’s probably best to keep Harper at first. Also prefer they trade Casty and keep Schwarber. I just don’t think Philly will bring Rhys back – sadly…
positively_broad_st;
Hello, again!
About 2-1/2 years ago I was writing on here that Harper should be moved to 1B and gave the reasons. It was an obvious move to make for the good of the team.
Recently in a game telecast Tom McCarthy and John Kruk were talking about that and said that the move of Harper to 1B had been discussed for years by Phillies management, and the only question was when (Dombrowski is a solid baseball guy).
Bryce is not going back to the OF. Bohm is not moving to 1B or dislodging Schwarber at DH. Doubt that Castellanos gets traded, partially because his salary is acceptable for the Phillies, but not for most other teams.
That is an exceptional roster, a team where everyone gets along, and they continue to develop young players and make the veterans better. Like the Orioles, they set the course and are on autopilot.
A list of declining talents moving into free agency expected to sign albatross contracts.
Pass on all of them…
Soto will be barely 26 when entering free agency. I’m sure he’ll be overpaid but he’s no where near his declining years.
“No where near his declining years”…I remember hearing something similar about a couple of other recent Boras clients, Anthony Rendon and Kris Bryant. For some reason, Boras attracts clients looking for a MASSIVE payday before they go into a very early retirement.
So people were saying that 30 year old players were no where near their declining years. Who were these people?
mlb – So what you’re saying is players in their late 20’s can fade out just like players in their early 30’s?
I endorse that belief.
The Lerners are middling owners, and they’ve made a lot of stupid decisions. Passing on Rendon wasn’t one of them. Nevermind his rotten attitude, he started to decline right after the WS.
Not much has changed, has it?
Not sure how Adames or Pivetta make that top ten list. And if that’s the order, there’s no way Adames is the third ranked FA out there.
pad – I have been saying for 264 days that next winter’s free agent class will be very thin.
Some people here kept saying last year’s free agent class sucked, it was a ridiculous take. And those pointing at Snell and Monty know that not having a ST is a big reason for early poor performance.
Last offseason had a deep group of pitchers, it was the time to sign free agents to multi-year contracts knowing next offseason’s class is so weak. That’s who a guy like Pivetta gets ranked so highly.
Yeah I think Max Fried will be much more desirable than Adames or Bergman and I expect he’ll have a much bigger market then those other guys and secure a bigger bag.
I think Adames will top out more in the 6/120m range and don’t think teams will be offering anywhere near 100m for Bergman… more like 3/60-4/75 (non zero chance it’s a 2/40m deal). Adames ending up at 5/90m wouldn’t shock me at all either.
Weird ranking of those guys IMO. I think there is a real chance Fried’s deal in total dollars is comparable to the other two combined. Always a shortage of #1/2 starters and health permitting his skillset should age very well.
Fever Pitch is right. This really is a pretty bad free agent class. You can Google 2025 MLB free agents and you will see it outside of MLBTR if you like. While you have a couple big names at the top there is no depth at all.
There will be a bidding war for Adames between the giants dodgers and braves. Whoever offers 100 million wins it. Hsk will be lucky to get 50 million
“Bidding war for Adames”…I’ll take Kim over Adames all 7 days of the week. He’s a better all around player(in my opinion), better defender and like you already mentioned, he might actually be cheaper.
@mlbfan-but what about Adames’ top tier cheerleader..uh, ‘great clubhouse guy’ status? That must account for his ranking on this list…
“Great clubhouse guy”…Being a great “clubhouse guy” is really not quantifiable and mostly is the main stream media opinion of him since fans don’t really see players in the clubhouse. Even media is around the clubhouse only at selected and controlled times, so even they don’t really know completely the inner workings of an MLB clubhouse.
The Tigers will take a reunion with Adames
All someone has to do is take Baez, since the chance of our p.o.s. cheap owner (bottom 5 payroll despite being Top 5 in personal net worth) doing the right thing and waiving the single worst hitter in all of MLB is basically 0
He wouldn’t be in ATL the same reason Swanson isn’t in ATL. Braves aren’t paying market rate. Doesn’t hurt that their best position prospect is SS Nacho Alvarez Jr. doing well with his promotion to AAA. Arcia is just a phantom IL stint away from losing his starting position.
I bet the Dodgers would pay a billion dollars if they could buy a roster expansion of a 4-5 slots.
Is that present-day $1B? If so, Ippei would bet against it.
@DMC. Thanks for that name drop. I meant to read up on Nacho a little while ago and forgot. His production seems pretty consistent too. His bio reads that he is one of the best defensive shortstops in the minors as well. Very encouraging possibility.
How Severino is that high on the list really says something about the pitching class.
7th? Rly?
you know you’re having a rough yr when you’re ranked behind willy adames & jack flaherty
Pete Alonso is under appreciated.
For sake of discussion… by whom?!?
I think in general, Gwynning. Seems to take a lot of heat for a guy that goes 40/100 on subpar teams. I’d take Alonso on my team.
Kepler is underrated. He’s had a lot of good years on both sides of the ball. Severino has a half a good year and a bunch of injuries. How does he get on the list before Kepler?
No he’s not. As a Mets fan I’d like to see him go. He’s a modern day Dave Kingman. And whines.
I totally see Bregman going to the Cubs. The need is real, and the money is there.
I don’t see it. The Cubs believe between Shaw, Morel and Triantos they have their 3B. I can’t even imagine them taking a shot at Bregman.
They may be stuck with those guys at the hot corner for now, but they’d be fools not to try an upgrade from that mediocre group over the offseason (if not at the trade deadline this year) if they expect to compete next year.
Although, whether or not they want to go after Bregman as a target is a different question.
“Mediocre”? LOL. I’m not a Morel fan but Shaw and Triantos are prospects. Both are top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Saying that they are mediocre is pretty bold.
A mention of Bregman’s stats being backed by a juiced ball but not by the….extracurriculars of the Astros dugout using a garbage can?
Kim: If he leaves San Diego, I suppose Bogaerts can move back to SS, Cronenworth stays at 2b and Arraez is at 1b.
That will leave a lot of 1b and DH for Luis Campusano who might still be the backup catcher next year.
Lots of time to figure “next year” out. Patience, Daniel-san.
Gwynning, I agree with the patience point but we are in the conversation so put me down for Goldie at 1b next year on a 2 – 3 year deal.
Today, I’d be good with Severino because I don’t think long term SP contracts are a safe bet due to injuries and for now, SD has about 5 SP prospects that have a good chance of having 2-3 pan out in 1-2 years. I did say “for now” because at least 1 will be gone by trade deadline.
The entire staff is under contract for 2025 and all but 2 are beyond that.
Should be a fun end of 2024 and hopefully even better 2025 after the tax reset!
I can agree with all your points, but I might differ on the potential players. Goldie & Sevy both seem to be on the steep part of their decline; I’d be more willing to “gamble” on more of an upshot or two. As to whom, idk yet! Good convo to have though, enjoy the day!
Not wrong on the decline but for me, I’m using they as a benefit. Shorter term contract for possibly getting the last “good” year and then an average year to complement the anticipated 2025 / 26 lineup. Saving the elite prospects to help salvage the declining years of our other guys and not clogging up even more spots with older guys in 26-29 window. Allowing for a top signing in 26 after Hosmer money falls off because they don’t have any new long term burdens (meaning not adding in FA this year) than they already have. Yu $$’s drop about then as well.
For example, Bog or Manny is 1b in a couple of years for a long time to come.
Goldschmidt is certainly in decline, but his current offensive numbers are misleading after a couple of brutal slumps early in the season. Since the middle of May, Goldy has been hitting pretty well, and he’s still on pace for 20 homers despite those slumps.
Who is gonna overpay Bregman by $180 million? Halfway through, they’re going to try him at SS in an attempt to recoup some value
Thankfully not HOU. He was talking up what would be hist best year ever after weighted bat off-season training. Ended up badly hurting the team for a long stretch. Factor in age and he belongs maybe 8-9 on this list.
Correction: It’s Flaherty’s best sustained stretch since the first half of the 2021 season. Why does everyone only remember the second half of 2019 but not the first half of 2021 when it comes to Jack Flaherty?!
Lanidrac; you obviously didn’t watch his Baltimore performance.
You obviously have your timeline messed up. He wasn’t traded to the Orioles until the trade deadline last year in 2023. That has nothing to do with how he dominated in the first half of 2021 until he got injured that year.
It is entirely valid to point to his wretched performance as an Oriole when expressing concern over how he might pitch going forward.
You can’t tout four year old performance and ignore last year.
Kim, Bregman, Janssen and Flaherty are signing with the Tigers. Book it!
Thanks for the laugh.
A .250 batting avg is decent in baseball. Maybe they get one of four, or Flaherty plus one 😉
I don’t like any of those guys-maybe Kim a litt.e
Soto is going to.make silly money…. 20% of a teams threshold room. No player, no matter how good, is worth that.
I hope my Red Sox don’t make a run at hi.m!
From one Sox follower to another, I don’t think that’s a real worry! The only FA outfielder the Sox might (or should?) consider is O’Neill, and even then they won’t be much financially motivated to offer a winning bid if it reaches over 8/yr. And if they trade him at the deadline . . . that’s that.
There will be plenty of applicants for the middle IF positions, making Rafaela free to return to CF.—so, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, and Refsnyder are the core four on the grass in 2025, I like the idea of Romy Gonzalez as IF/OF utility–if he shows just a little more bat, he becomes really valuable as his Arb years don’t start until 2026.
I agree. And there is also Roman Anthony to consider. If he makes it, then I assume he will be promoted sometime next year. And I think Yorke will be a major league hitter, but with Story, Hamilton, Mayer, and maybe Valdez, there might not be enough ABs in the IF. Heck, even Romy as you say, should have some ABs.
You guys are forgetting the “OMG, we need a signing!!” panic PR move that the FO is famous for!
I do agree with you guys about the lack of need. I just hope the FO listens to us lol
Why isn’t Joe Hendry on this list? I believe!
” Burnes is a better pitcher. He should be able to find an eight-year deal that also runs through his age-37 season, and there’s a chance he gets to nine years.”
no sir, those days are gone. Last we saw of the bulk deals was the last EXCEPT in stitch up offers. Too many pitchers burned this year. Too much money lost. You will see. Unless it’s a hot “everyone wants him” RC or KBO newcomer, those long and large deals are mostly a thing of the past. Ill wager a 2, MAYBE 3 year deal with options…but Wheeler got the last sweet deal of the old school of thought. PRETTY SURE batters are going to end up wit hshorter contracts as well come 2025
You’re KIND of echoing my thoughts. I’m really curious to see what deal Burns can get. I find it questionable that he gets 7 or 8 years also and if he can’t then you’re right. Those days are over.
You’re probably right to a degree, but I can’t imagine that 30-year-old aces can’t still find at least a five-year-deal (as long as they keep their demands reasonable unlike Snell and Montgomery, not that either of them were as good as Burnes is, anyway).
This is Burnes 4th consecutive decline in K9. That is often an indicator of an underlying injury.
Maybe. Or it could be a change in pitching strategy.
Dd
THIS is why listing, correctly, present values of contracts is so important.
Contracts can be structured so that a 3 year deal and an 8 year deal have the same value.
Contract length doesn’t really matter.
Teams should, all else being equal, prefer longer contracts, players should prefer shorter ones.
Alonso has turned himself into a very adequate defensive first baseman not limited in the least.
Wow, from Soto/Burnes to Adames/Bregman. That might be largest drop I’ve ever seen on one of these lists. Sounds like an active trading offseason.
I feel bad for the team that overpays Willy Adames.
Oh crap, I see Santander got a mention this time around. Kinda hoping he’d fly under the radar and Orioles sneakily extend him via the home discount route. LOL
Santander is not coming back. The Orioles would rather spend their money elsewhere, and we’ve got plenty of outfielders, all of them younger and cheaper, And arguably better.
Matt, we will qualify offer him and cheerfully take the pick when he leaves.
Why would Burnes come up short of Cole’s contract? Burnes previous 4 years have been much better than Cole’s 4 years before he became a free agent. The only thing Cole has over Burnes is K’s, but Burnes still has a 10 k/9 during that time so it’s not like he’s a slouch in that department.
It was 13.3/9. Now it is 8.4/9. I wouldn’t pay him past about 3-4 years.
So, let’s say, you’d offer him 4 years and X million dollars.
And he countered with 5 years and X + 5 million dollars?
You wouldn’t pay just $5 million for that potential 5th year?
You wouldn’t take the 4 seasons of reduced AAV?
The number of years isn’t all that important. Contracts can be structured to nearly anything anyone wants
This list is underwhelming in most regards, but your rankings have me questioning if you even know baseball. Adames ranking 3rd? Really?
Santander is getting short shrift. His defense is better than average and he hits really well.
Cleveland would love a mulligan in letting him go in the Rule 5.
Fried should be ahead of Adames and Bregman. I really don’t see why Adames is considered so much better than Kim. Adames has bad deal written on him imo. I just have a hunch. Is Adames or Bregman gonna put a team over the finish line? I think Burns and Fried are guys who do that for a team.
Soto will be able to fund a small country. I hate large contracts but he will get the money regardless of GMs pulling back on long term high priced contracts.
Pirates have weeknesses at first and OF going into ’25 as it stands on july 11th. Assuming they don’t make a trade for a controled person..
Walker and Bellinger fit the need for first and Bellinger, Hernandez, O’Neill and Kepler fit the OF spots. If any be under 20m aav range pirates should strongly consider it. They likely won’t unless the pirates make a run and see themselves as one piece away.
But you know Its July, lots of baseball left.
I think when you look at the various players on this list, which doesn’t include any of the op-out players and start adding up all the $$$’s being projected who are the actual landing spot(s)? What is their payroll like, what is their CBT like, etc how much of the pie has already been committed what is the status of their RSN?
The NYY are obviously in on Soto, who else? In theory I understand the market comps but in reality isn’t the market whatever the 2nd place team can offer + 1? Isn’t that’s how Judge got his money. I’m sure the LAD will be creative but to what extent? Cohen can in theory afford any contract.
Where I am stuck is in the last 5 years the industry has gone from a pandemic to this RSN debacle, can anyone say with certainty 2024-25 market that everything is back to “normal”? Do all the players with op-outs joining the normal FA’s create too much supply?
I’m sure in the coming weeks there will be some great content about how MLBTR views the market that doesn’t start for another 3 months with lots of hopefully exciting baseball in between.