The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a bit more rapidly than the rest of free agency so far, with lefties Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both having already found new homes with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. This year’s pitching market is characterized by the depth of quality arms available, however, and plenty of solid pitchers still remain available. One quirk of this year’s class is that the vast majority of top-tier, and even mid-tier, starting pitchers received Qualifying Offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to that, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are attached to draft pick compensation.
The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.
Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.
The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.
Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into his 30s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.
He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.
If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?
Gotta hand it to stearns & mets pitching coach hefner
They took a washed up banged up veteran nobody wanted & turned his career around in 1 season
“Gotta hand it to”…Surely the Mets are to be congratulated for their use and handling of Luis Severino. But, to describe him as “washed up” is a bit much, since he was still in demand enough to command a $14M contract. Not many “washed up” pitchers will ever command that sum.
“Banged up” is more accurate since Severino was coming off an arm injury that often takes 14-24 months from which to fully recover. In my opinion the Met’s biggest decision was whether Sevi was a good bounce back candidate to his years of being a TOR guy(or close to one) with the Yankees. It turns out that he was and rewarded the Mets for their bold confidence.
I didn’t think he’d ever have a good season again. Still might not after this, of course.
He didn’t have a good season in 2024. The Mets offering him 21 million was insane and him not taking it was also a bit crazy.
Cue the “Padres can’t afford it” BS narrative.
That’s BS and a quick way to lose a fanbase.
Don’t invest in a team and ownership can quote Kevin, in honor of the Christmas season “I made my fanbase dissappear”
It will happen quick, believe you me.
Dude what does that have to do with Severino and Pivetta?
The fact that Padres fans will be told “they are too expensive”.
Padres fans are being conditioned to accept a firesale of sorts.
It starts with every FA ‘is too expensive’ then progresses to ‘finding a way to compete’ and then ‘offloading a large contract’ to be able to sign middling FA’s.
The team then will hover around .500 for several years and then fall back into oblivion.
Fans will complain about the need for a salary cap because the team just can’t afford to spend.
All by design.
Stick to basketball, towinagain.
You mean the sport that actually gets it, structure wise?
MLB should look to the NBA as an example.
And hey, there is only one professional sports team in SD.
I have no choice.
The Padres have been more aggressive and bigger spenders than most teams. I understand that you’re in the same division as the Dodgers but most fan bases would be thrilled to have San Diego’s ownership, management and commitment.
“The Mets offering him 21 million was insane and him not taking it was also a bit crazy.”
You’ve been pushing this idea for a while now and it’s wrong. $21 million for one season is a good deal for Severino. He got $13 million last offseason and he was coming off of a horrible 2023 and hadn’t been healthy for a full season since 2018. Most teams in baseball would love to have Severino for 1 year and $21 million. The Angels just paid Kikuchi $21 million a year for *three* years. It’s just the price of pitching these days.
The reason Severino got 13 million from the Mets was because they were hoping he bounces back to his form from years ago. And he didn’t. The Mets also gave Bader a crazy amount of money hoping for something similar.
The Angels overpaid Kikuchi.
Look at what other starters sign for the rest of the offseason. Let’s do that and then we can compare it to 21 million for 1 season of Severino.
The Angels HAD to overpay for Kikuchi and will for any other FA because they are regarded as one of the 5 worst teams, and franchises, in all of baseball. No self respecting FA would opt to play there, absent a gross overpay; Because they know that they won’t ever be in playoff contention.
@Blackpink,
I’m a Mets fan and your take isn’t accurate.
Stearns signs free agents to short term deals he feels he can get more from than the prevailing view. Severino was reclamation project the Mets hoping for solid season based on keeping him healthy and making some improvements to what he was doing. in 2023.
Stearns is big on up the middle defense and Bader plays gold glove caliber defense. He also has some pop and goes on hot streaks. He also changed his offseason routine in quest to stay healthy which he finally did. Mets paid a lot for him – an overpay, but also got a lot out of him particularly in the first half when he came up with big hit after big hit and played very solid defense.
Severino was a reclamation project that really didn’t work out and the Mets still offered him 21 million for 2025. He had an FIP of 4.2 that’s not a good pitcher that’s a back end barely above replacement level guy.
I am a Cardinals fan I know exactly who Bader is and what he brings. I like Bader but it was an overpay shoot you just said so yourself. He’s from New York he would have probably taken less to play there and the Mets offered him a ton.
Troy – Lot of people here believe once a player is bad they will never get good again. It’s a common stance here but stupid, especially when health is not taken into consideration. Chris Sale is just one example.
John – Nobody wanted him? Says who?
A year ago MLBTR projected $14M for him, he got $13M. If nobody wanted him he would have been a spring training invite or signed to a minor league contract. Go look back at all the teams that wanted him, there were several.
Pivetta, easily. His start-to-start inconsistencies overshadow how remarkably consistent he is on a yearly basis. He also has a far healthier arm than Severino, who has never recovered from being overused in the first half of 1018.
Reading this post makes me think both of them should have taken the QO. Could they both end up signing a deal like Montgomery did this year?.
“Should have taken the QO”..I don’t watch Boston as much; only a couple times a week so I won’t comment on Pivetta.
But, I do think Sevi has set himself up for a nice 3 yr $45M-$50M payday, even with the weight of a qualifying offer attached. So, I do believe he made the right decision for him and his family.
I tend to agree that he (actually both of them) will get a significant more in total dollars over the QO but this article didn’t give me hope for signing team to get anything special but maybe that is just the cost of a #3 or #4 with potential upside.
Montgomery was a good pitcher up until 2024. These 2 are back end starters.
This is a would you rather drown or burn to death, both of these guys should of accepted the QO
My preference would be drowning, while passing on Pivetta and Severino.
Agreed: fire = burn = some intense fear and pain to be experienced before demise. drown = can’t breath = no pain involved but extreme panic before demise is met. Verdict: hands down with drowning preferred and neither Sevy or Pivetta in rotation.
You guys talk like solid pitching just grows on trees. I would love to have both of these guys at a reasonable price.
@Patriot I’m a Mariners fan so I may feel entitled to believe good pitching does grow on trees, but you’re right, it very well does not and upon further review one could do a lot worse than Pivetta/Sevy.
@Patriot12992,
But more importantly, would you prefer drowning or self-immolation?
He has never allowed *fewer* than 20 long balls.
Severino only shows up in contract years
Well then sign him to one year deals.
Severino has had two contract years. The first was awful which is why the Yankees didn’t bring him back. This past year was a good bounce back year.
Bounce back from what? Being injured for 5 years? The guy hasnt had an injury free season since 2018
@Poolhalljunkies: Yes.
Allowing home runs is not a problem if they are solo home runs. It’s way better to look at the number of runs allowed on home runs rather than just the count.
Severino was good, but inconsistent, this season. He’d throw 2-3 good games and then a real clunker. He was also gassed by the end of the season, and that really showed in September and October. But that was understandable given how many more innings he pitched this year. If I were Stearns I’d bring him back on a 3 year deal as he has shown that he can pitch under the pressure of NYC. His relationship with Mendoza from their Yankee days together may have also helped.
I would gladly sign Pivetta.
Pivetta for me and it’s no contest. The k’s are too good, and Sev is too inconsistent.
Forget both of them. I’d rather have what’s behind the curtain where Carol Merrill is now standing.
Perhaps I should Google Carol Merrill.
Or Jay Stewart. Or Monty Hall.
“So tell us Johnny, what has El Kabong won…”
“Five years of Patrick Corbin to anchor his rotation.”
From a basic who will show up and actually pitch perspective its Pivetta and not close sure they both have great “potential” ..but one of them has pitched 1 full season since 2018 and the other has shown up every single year..cant fullfill potential if you arent on the field..
Casuals will say Pivetta but the right answer is Severino if you want the team to win
There was a time when I would have said Pivetta because he’s more “high end” but exeprience has shown me there are reasons to lay off the Snells and Pivettas of the world
Reasons I really wont get into
This “casual” can read a baseball card and see pivetta actually pitches..severino spends most of his time in the training room..not saying either is worth the money but..you pay the guy who shows up
Yeah casuals look at stats. That’s funny
How else does one evaluate a player? If you don’t go by stats, then you have the eye test. And what fan has the time to watch every single start, or every single at-bat a player has that you wish to talk about and evaluate?
That’s why we fans should leave the evaluation to the professionals. I find it funny how we, as fans, place great value on prospects we’ve never seen.
My point exactly..cant evaluate what you cant see…aside from last year we havnt seem severino as much as most others
@ignorant you only need a few at bats. Just bounce around on mlbtv
But sometimes the pitcher doesn’t have his good stuff or the hitter isn’t locked in. You have to take the current at bat with a grain of salt. The hitter in April can be way different in August
Have to take all that into account. Watching a few at bats is much better then looking at stats
The way the hitter takes a pitch is a huge indicator. Does he just nonchalantly lay off? It’s way better than looking at BB% or chase rate
Stats don’t show you mechanics. There’s very little reason to ever look at traditional stats. I rarely pull up stats anymore
“In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 ERA.”
Neither are with the QO, but I suppose a long term deal at a lesser AV for a good team is more valuable at this stage if their careers. Boston will likely sign Pivetta and I see Severino going to the Braves.
Severino goes to the Astros, which will haunt the Yankees. Ghost of Christmas Past, and then the Ghost of Christmas ALCS Future.
Anyone but Nick Pivetta
After watch Pivetta for the last four years it is my opinion his stuff is good enough to be a top flight closer. With his stuff, he could extend his career for at least five more productive years and make good money. He reminds me of The Eck, with his stuff, and laying it on the line, one inning a game.