Since the league suspended luxury tax payments for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, 2024 technically marked the first time that the Astros exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Houston’s team-record $244MM payroll came with an approximate tax number of $262MM, thus putting the Astros over the second tier ($257MM) of tax penalties. The increased price tag could be viewed as the cost of keeping together a perpetual contender, and sure enough, the Astros again won the AL West in 2024 before being upset by the Tigers in the wild card round.
The Astros now enter the offseason with a lot of money still on the books. RosterResource’s projections have Houston at roughly a $215MM payroll and a $233.7MM tax number for 2025, putting the Astros just under the $241MM CBT threshold. A few million could be shaved off via non-tenders, yet a bigger move like re-signing Alex Bregman could alone bring Houston pretty close to its 2024 figures, even before the Astros addressed other roster needs.
Owner Jim Crane at least left the door open to spending at the same level and paying another tax bill, telling The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters that “we have the wherewithal to do it if we need to do it.” However, Crane added caveats by noting “it just depends on what players are available. It’s pretty evident what needs we have. We want to try and field the best team we can without going crazy….We run it like a business and we make good decisions.”
Even these measured comments might bring a little relief to Astros fans worried about how aggressive the team plans to be this winter. GM Dana Brown said last month that “we may have to get a little bit creative” in the roster plans, and it should be noted that Crane’s remarks don’t contradict Brown’s statement in any way — naturally, every team wants to be as efficient as possible in its spending.
Crane mentioned that “we have some money coming off the payroll next year,” which could provide a hint to Houston’s longer-term plans. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Ryan Pressly, and Victor Caratini are all slated to hit free agency next offseason, and the Astros will also be free of the dead-money commitments still owed to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero. While retaining Tucker or Valdez is certainly on Houston’s radar, the Astros could conceivably be willing to re-sign Bregman or make another splashy move or two this offseason and take the one-year CBT hit with an eye towards perhaps resetting its tax status next winter once they get more salary relief.
Speaking of Bregman, Crane reiterated the team’s desire to retain the longtime third baseman. The team’s strategy is to let Brown handle the talks with Bregman’s agent Scott Boras, though Crane noted that he personally spoke with Boras “once early” in the offseason. Crane acknowledged that the Astros were also looking at potential Plan B options if Bregman did sign elsewhere, though that is common due diligence for any front office.
Skenes, now 22, has made a quick rise to being one of the top pitchers in the sport. As of a year and a half ago, he was still pitching for Louisiana State University. The Pirates selected him with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, with many viewing him as about as close to MLB-ready as a draft pick could be.
