2025-26 MLB Free Agents Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

By Anthony Franco | at October 24, 2025 11:00pm CDT

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve gone through each offensive position and now turn to the starting rotation. For this exercise, we’re focused on pitchers who spent most of this past season working as a starter. Some relievers (e.g. Luke Weaver, Steven Matz, Sean Newcomb) could also receive rotation interest. They’ll be covered in the respective reliever previews. Player ages, listed in parentheses, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, right-handed relief

Top Group

Dylan Cease (30)

Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would’ve positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, ’24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, ’25).

The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He’s eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It’s the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year’s 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate.

All that said, Cease’s camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn’t work beyond six frames after June 21.

The Padres will issue Cease a qualifying offer, which he’s a lock to decline. If a $200MM offer doesn’t materialize, it’d make sense for him to look for a two- or three-year guarantee that allows him to opt out and give free agency another go next winter. It’s tough to see him splitting the difference and accepting a four- or five-year deal without opt-outs that pays him like a #3/4 starter.

Tatsuya Imai (28)*

Imai, who is likely to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He might command the top contract of any pitcher. The 5’11” hurler won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He has posted ace-caliber numbers in consecutive seasons. Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league (minimum 100 innings) with a 27.8% strikeout rate.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in September that contract estimates from people with whom he spoke ranged from $80MM to over $200MM. Imai isn’t the slam dunk ace that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he commanded $325MM from the Dodgers. He’s younger and throws a lot harder than Shota Imanaga did when he signed a four-year, $53MM guarantee.

Teams are going to have different evaluations on his stuff and some clubs might feel there’s a risk that his command projects him to relief. Imai has improved his control each season and is coming off a solid 7% walk rate, but he’d issued free passes to more than 9% of opponents in every year before this one. Whatever team wins the bidding will be one that views Imai as a slam dunk starter, though, and he’s likely to be paid as a #3 arm who is in the prime of his career.

Ranger Suárez (30)

Suárez has been a steady #2/3 starter for the Phillies over the past four seasons. He’s coming off arguably the best year of his career. He turned in a 3.20 ERA over a personal-high 157 1/3 innings. Suárez fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against an excellent 5.8% walk rate. He reliably gets weak contact and has gotten ground-balls at a 51% clip since the start of 2022.

The lefty doesn’t have the kind of power stuff that tends to get paid highly. He hasn’t reached a league average swinging strike rate in any of the last four years. His sinker has averaged between 90-91 MPH in each of the past two seasons. The multi-year track record should support a nine-figure deal spanning five or six years. Suárez will reject a qualifying offer and be attached to draft compensation.

Framber Valdez (32)

Valdez is now the top domestic free agent starter in the class. The southpaw is coming off his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons. Valdez has slightly above-average strikeout stuff, but his standout skill is an elite ground-ball rate. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater, so he’s hardly a soft-tossing grounder specialist. There are clear parallels to Max Fried, who commanded an eight-year and $218MM deal last winter.

Valdez isn’t going to get that long of a contract. There hasn’t been a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher in a decade. Valdez would have had a better case to snap that precedent had he finished the season well. He ended with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts. Valdez was also at the center of controversy when he didn’t appear to show much concern after a cross-up that led him to drill catcher César Salazar in the chest. The Astros downplayed that publicly, but he could face some questions about the situation from interested teams.

That’s unlikely to stop him from commanding a five-year contract that pays between $25-30MM annually. He’ll cost a team a draft choice after he declines a qualifying offer. Extension talks with the Astros never gained traction and he’s expected to sign elsewhere.

Second Tier

Shane Bieber (31)

Bieber is technically weighing a $16MM player option versus a $4MM buyout. It’s an obvious decision for him to opt out. The former Cy Young winner signed a two-year deal to return to Cleveland when he was halfway through rehab from April 2024 Tommy John surgery. The recovery went mostly as expected. He had a brief setback in June when he was scratched from a rehab start with elbow soreness. That prevented him from returning to an MLB mound before the trade deadline, but he was back on a rehab assignment by July.

The Blue Jays were encouraged enough by his form to give up a legitimate pitching prospect, Khal Stephen, to acquire him. It paid off, as Bieber turned in a 3.57 ERA over seven regular season starts. He averaged nearly six innings per start while striking out 23.3% of opponents against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has taken the ball three times in the postseason, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 12 1/3 frames. His 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is excellent, but he has given up a home run in each of his past two starts. He’ll make at least one and potentially two starts during the World Series.

Bieber is unlikely to return to the Cy Young heights he reached in 2020, but he looks like a high-end #3 arm. While the ill-timed surgery has prevented him from racking up many innings over the past two seasons, some teams will probably view that at as a standalone injury which is now behind him. He will hit free agency without draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

Zac Gallen (30)

Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures. The Diamondbacks are expected to make him a qualifying offer.

Lucas Giolito (30)

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Michael King (31)

King will decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres. He’ll be paid a $3.75MM buyout and become a free agent. A few months ago, he looked like he’d find a nine-figure deal. That’s tougher to envision after injuries interrupted what had been an excellent start to his walk year.

The righty began his season with a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts. He went on the injured list at the end of May with what the team initially viewed as a minor shoulder injury. That turned out to be far more of a hindrance than expected. It turned out to be a nerve issue that cost him three months. He came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.

King was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start a must-win Game 3 of their Wild Card Series while keeping King in the bullpen. Darvish gave up two runs in one inning to take the loss. King tossed a scoreless inning of relief, striking out three of four batters in his only playoff action. It now remains to be seen if teams are willing to chance a four- or five-year contract on a pitcher who looked like a high-end #2 starter a few months ago. A two-year deal with an opt-out isn’t out of the question.

Brandon Woodruff (33)

On talent alone, Woodruff belongs in the first tier. Teams that are only concerned with chasing short-term upside could have him alongside Valdez as the two best pitchers in the class. Woodruff isn’t going to command the same long-term contract because of his age and durability questions.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. His 93 MPH average fastball is down nearly three ticks from his pre-surgery level, which is an obvious concern, but that didn’t prevent him from dominating before the lat strain. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters and Woodruff has that kind of ceiling.

The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.

Effective Late-Career Arms

Chris Bassitt (37)

Bassitt has been a steady, durable mid-rotation arm for the past six seasons. That includes a 3.89 ERA in 100 appearances over his three-year deal with the Blue Jays. He allowed just under four earned runs per nine across 170 1/3 innings during the regular season. Bassitt missed the Division Series with lower back tightness but returned for the ALCS roster. He tossed 2 2/3 perfect frames with three strikeouts in a setup capacity. He’ll be limited to a two-year deal at age 37 but could secure more than $15MM annually. The Blue Jays cannot make him a qualifying offer, as he received one from the Mets after the 2022 season.

Merrill Kelly (37)

Kelly is probably in a similar contractual range as Bassitt, though he could command a few million dollars more on an annual basis. He’s a rock solid #3 starter coming off a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Kelly posted solid strikeout (22.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates despite sitting around 92 MPH with his fastball. He has rebounded brilliantly from 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. A shoulder strain cost him a few months last season, but he stayed healthy this year and has reached 30+ starts in three of the past four seasons. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for the qualifying offer.

Max Scherzer (41)

Scherzer’s one-year, $15.5MM free agent deal with the Blue Jays has had mixed results. A recurring nerve injury in his right thumb sent him to the injured list after one start. Scherzer was out until late June. He returned to post a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts. The strikeout and walk profile remains solid, but he gave up more than two home runs per nine innings. Scherzer was a healthy scratch in the ALDS but returned to the roster for the Championship Series. He went 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in a Game 4 start to pick up the win and even the ALCS at two games apiece. One could argue that start alone justified the signing even if Scherzer’s regular season was surely frustrating for the future Hall of Famer and the Blue Jays alike. He’ll get another one-year deal but might land in the $10-12MM range this time.

Justin Verlander (43)

Verlander signed a one-year, $15MM with the Giants last winter. He was coming off a 5.48 ERA over 17 starts that had gotten him left off Houston’s playoff roster. Verlander’s tenure in San Francisco started slowly, as he posted a 4.70 ERA through the All-Star Break. He turned in a 2.99 mark with a 21.5% strikeout rate in the second half. His fastball still lands around 94 MPH on average as he enters his age-43 season. Verlander isn’t going to win another Cy Young, but he’s a capable mid-rotation performer whose wealth of experience is surely welcome for younger pitching staffs. He’ll sign another one-year deal that could approach $20MM.

Contractual Options

Jack Flaherty (30)

Flaherty is weighing a $20MM player option on his deal with the Tigers. He’s coming off a 4.64 ERA over 31 starts. It’s the second time in the past three years that Flaherty allowed nearly five earned runs per nine innings. He has had issues keeping the ball in the yard in consecutive seasons. While that might point towards him opting in, there’s a good chance he tests the market anyway based on his youth and swing-and-miss potential.

The righty punched out 27.6% of opponents behind a strong 11.3% swinging strike rate. He’d fanned nearly 30% of batters faced last season. He’s 13th in MLB with 382 strikeouts over the past two seasons. Flaherty has also avoided the injured list in three straight years despite reports that the Yankees pulled out of a 2024 deadline deal after flagging something in his medicals. The combination of durability and swing-and-miss upside might get him a three- or four-year contract. If Flaherty opts out, the Tigers would need to decide whether to issue a qualifying offer.

Shota Imanaga (32)

The Cubs have a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga’s services. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this year. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

John Means (33)

Cleveland signed Means to a one-year deal with a $6MM club option that could climb to $7.5MM based on next year’s innings totals. He was coming off his second UCL surgery in three years and spent all of this season rehabbing.

Freddy Peralta (30)

Peralta will not be a free agent. The Brewers are going to exercise an $8MM option. They’ll entertain trade possibilities but could hold their ace for his final season of club control after advancing to the NLCS.

Colin Rea (35)

The Cubs hold a $6MM option on Rea that comes with a $750K buyout. That’s a reasonable price for a reliable swingman who turned in a 3.95 ERA over 159 1/3 innings this past season. If the Cubs surprisingly cut Rea loose, he should be able to find a similar contract on the open market.

Jose Urquidy (31)

The Tigers guaranteed Urquidy $1MM as he completed rehab from Tommy John surgery. He made two late-season relief appearances. They can bring him back on a $4MM option that could climb to $7MM based on escalators.

Middle/Back of the Rotation

Adrian Houser (33)

Houser was on a minor league deal with the Rangers at the beginning of this year. He opted out and signed a big league deal with the White Sox in late May. Houser went on an excellent two-month run in Chicago, turning in a 2.10 ERA through 68 2/3 innings. That was enough to make him a legitimate deadline trade chip, as they sent him to the Rays for a three-player return headlined by former top prospect Curtis Mead. The magic wore off after the deal, as Houser struggled to a 4.79 ERA in 56 1/3 frames with Tampa Bay.

Middling finish aside, the righty is in much better position than he was at this time last winter. Houser is a lock for a big league deal and could get two years to pitch in a swing role. He doesn’t miss many bats but gets a lot of ground-balls behind a sinker that sits north of 95 MPH on average.

Zack Littell (30)

Littell has gone from nondescript middle reliever to viable fourth starter since the Rays built him up halfway through the 2023 season. He tied for 11th in MLB with 186 2/3 innings this year and has managed consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. He pounds the strike zone but has fringe stuff that leads to middling strikeout rates and a lot of home runs. Only Jake Irvin gave up more home runs than Littell’s 36 this year.

The Reds nevertheless valued Littell’s durability and strike-throwing enough to give up a legitimate pitching prospect (Adam Serwinowski) to acquire him at the deadline. Littell just turned 30 and should be able to pull a multi-year deal. There’s a chance he gets a three-year contract from a team that wants to lock in some stability at the back of the staff.

Tyler Mahle (31)

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts for the Rangers this year. However, he only struck out 19.1% of opponents while working with less impressive stuff than he showed early in his career with the Reds. Mahle averages 92 MPH after sitting 93-94 a few years ago. The drop-off is presumably tied to his history of arm injuries, which continued this year.

Mahle suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. Shoulder issues had prematurely ended his season in both 2022 and ’24, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. Mahle technically finished this season healthy for the first time in four years, as he was able to return to make two starts in September. He has only made 51 appearances over the past four years and might be limited to one-year deals as a result.

Nick Martinez (35)

Martinez was last offseason’s most surprising qualifying offer recipient. Not coincidentally, he was the only player to accept the QO and play out the season on a $21.05MM salary. The veteran swingman spent most of the season in Cincinnati’s rotation, working to a 4.45 ERA across 165 2/3 innings. His 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since he returned to MLB four years ago. Martinez doesn’t have eye-popping stuff, but he has plus control and reliably stays off barrels.

The lack of swing-and-miss and Martinez’s age could cap him at one year, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he finds another two-year contract. Teams have valued his willingness to bounce between the rotation and bullpen at any point within the season. Martinez has also been ultra durable, avoiding the injured list entirely since his MLB comeback in 2022.

NPB/KBO fliers

Foster Griffin (30)

Griffin is a former first-round pick of the Royals who made seven MLB appearances between 2020-22. He has spent the past three seasons in Japan, combining for a 2.57 ERA across 315 2/3 innings. Griffin missed time this past season with what MLBTR has learned was a bone bruise in his lower body. He’s expected to have a normal offseason and intends to pursue an MLB return. Griffin didn’t have overpowering stuff during his initial run in affiliated ball, but he’s coming off a 1.62 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents. He could command a big league deal to compete for a back-of-the-rotation spot.

Cody Ponce (32)

Ponce is pitching with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles this year. It’s possible he explores MLB opportunities once the offseason begins. Ponce posted a near-6.00 ERA over 20 big league appearances with the Pirates between 2020-21. He spent the next three seasons pitching to mediocre results in Japan before signing in Korea. Ponce had a phenomenal KBO season, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 36% of opponents. It’s an even better season than Erick Fedde had when he won the KBO MVP award in 2023.

Fedde parlayed that into a two-year, $15MM contract with the White Sox. Ponce is a year older but is a former second-round pick whose stuff has ticked up in Korea. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke credited Ponce with a mid-90s fastball to headline a four-pitch mix. It’s not out of the question that he gets a multi-year deal that approaches or exceeds the Fedde contract.

Kona Takahashi (29)*

The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahashi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.

Reclamation/Swing Types

Walker Buehler (31)

The Red Sox signed Buehler to a $21.05MM free agent deal last offseason. They ignored his terrible regular season results and placed a lot of emphasis on his two good outings in the World Series. That predictably didn’t work out, and they ended up releasing him by the end of August. Buehler managed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball after signing with the Phillies for the season’s final couple weeks, though that came with an 8:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished the season with an ERA just under 5.00 with poor strikeout, walk, and home run rates. Buehler still has a 94 MPH fastball and a track record that should get him a big league deal at a much lower salary than he made this past season. Some teams could be intrigued to see if he can find a new gear in the bullpen, but Buehler may prefer to sign with a club that’ll offer a rotation opportunity.

Griffin Canning (30)

Canning was one of the Mets’ more reliable starters early in the season, turning in a 3.77 ERA behind a 51% ground-ball rate over 16 starts. Unfortunately, he ruptured his right Achilles against the Braves at the end of June. The Mets never released a specific timeline beyond the obvious news that he was headed for season-ending surgery. It seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, which would be nine months removed from the injury. Canning could try for a cheap, slightly backloaded two-year deal.

Nestor Cortes (31)

Cortes, an All-Star with the Yankees in 2022, has battled forearm issues for the past two seasons. He only made eight starts (with rough results) between the Brewers and Padres this year. Cortes finished the season on the injured list and underwent surgery that threatens his availability for 2026. He’s probably looking at a one-year guarantee with a ’27 club option so a signing team can gauge his recovery.

Zach Eflin (32)

Eflin looked good over three starts before suffering a lat strain. He missed a month, then was rocked for a 7.16 ERA over nine starts before returning to the injured list with a back issue. He came back in late July, started twice more, and was shut back down. Eflin underwent season-ending back surgery in August. The Orioles announced that the recovery could take anywhere from four to eight months, so it’s not a given that he’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Jon Gray (34)

Gray pitched six times this year, all in relief. He finished the season on the injured list and was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. It’s unclear if he’ll require surgery that could cost him most of the ’26 campaign.

Germán Márquez (31)

Márquez once overcame the challenges of pitching in Colorado to post upper mid-rotation numbers. That hasn’t been the case since he underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2023-24 seasons. The righty was bombed for a 6.70 ERA with a career-low 14% strikeout rate this year. He pitched just as poorly on the road as he did at Coors Field. Márquez still has a 95 MPH heater, so perhaps he’ll find a cheap big league deal from a team that thinks he’s salvageable with some repertoire changes.

Dustin May (28)

Once the sport’s top pitching prospect, May underwent a pair of significant elbow surgeries early in his career. He missed all of last year after requiring emergency esophageal surgery following a fluky but life-threatening throat rupture when a piece of lettuce got stuck in his throat. May thankfully was able to return to the mound this year and managed a career-high 132 1/3 innings across 25 appearances. He posted a near-5.00 ERA and ended the season on the shelf with elbow neuritis.

Jordan Montgomery (33)

Montgomery gave up a 6.23 ERA over 25 appearances during his first season with the Diamondbacks. He was blasted publicly by owner Ken Kendrick last winter, then blew out in Spring Training and underwent Tommy John surgery. Arizona dumped part of his contract on the Brewers at the deadline but he’ll probably look for a fresh start as a free agent. If he’s expected back in June or July, he could get a big league deal as a buy-low flier.

Michael Soroka (28)

Soroka has flashed intriguing swing-and-miss stuff but has yet to show that he can hold up as a starter. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents over 16 starts with the Nationals. His velocity wilted as the deadline approached. The Cubs looked past that and acquired him, but Soroka exited his team debut with a shoulder strain. He returned in mid-September as a reliever and finished the season with a 4.52 ERA across 89 2/3 innings.

Depth/Innings Eaters

Tyler Anderson (36)

Anderson wrapped up his three-year, $39MM free agent contract with the Angels by turning in a 4.56 ERA across 26 starts. He allowed 4.53 earned runs per nine over his three seasons in Anaheim. The southpaw struck out only 17.5% of opponents while averaging 89 MPH on his fastball. He missed the final month with an oblique strain and is likely looking at a one-year deal in the $3-5MM range.

Aaron Civale (31)

In a season divided between three teams, Civale turned in a 4.85 ERA across 102 innings. He pitched poorly as a starter with both Milwaukee and the White Sox but found some late-season success out of the bullpen with the Cubs.

Patrick Corbin (36)

Corbin took the ball 31 times and provided the Rangers 155 1/3 innings on a $1.1MM free agent deal. He managed decent results early in the season but a rough last two months left him with a 4.40 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate. It’s a better season than he had with the Nationals in 2024, so he could earn a boost to a $3-4MM salary if he comes back for his age-36 season.

Kyle Hendricks (36)

Hendricks was noncommittal on whether he planned to continue pitching. The soft-tossing sinkerballer is coming off a 4.76 ERA over 164 2/3 innings for the Angels on a $2.5MM free agent deal.

Michael Lorenzen (34)

Lorenzen started 26 of 27 appearances for the Royals this past season. He worked to a 4.64 ERA with a league average 21% strikeout rate and a solid 6.4% walk percentage. Lorenzen should fare the best of the pitchers in this tier because he sits around 94 MPH and missed bats at a near league average clip.

Miles Mikolas (37)

Mikolas played out his final season in St. Louis as an innings-eating fifth starter. He posted a 4.84 ERA over 31 appearances. Like most of the pitchers in this tier, he’s a durable strike-thrower who doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of home runs.

Chris Paddack (30)

Paddack was sitting on a 4.95 ERA in 21 starts when the Twins traded him to Detroit at the deadline. The buy-low move for the Tigers busted, as the righty was pushed out of the rotation after five starts. He finished the regular season in relief and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Paddack ended the year with a 5.35 ERA and a career-worst 16.7% strikeout rate in 158 innings.

Martín Pérez (35)

Pérez managed a solid 3.54 ERA over 56 innings for the White Sox on a one-year deal. Injuries kept him from soaking up the innings that the Sox had wanted, though. Pérez missed a few months with a flexor issue and landed back on the shelf in September with a shoulder strain.

Jose Quintana (37)

Quintana made 24 starts and worked to a 3.96 ERA over 131 2/3 innings for the Brewers. He’s a capable back-end starter but didn’t find much interest last offseason, when he was coming off a 3.75 mark in 31 starts for the Mets. Another one-year deal between $4-6MM seems likely.

Tomoyuki Sugano (36)

Sugano’s first season in the U.S. was a disappointment. The former NPB star took the ball 30 times but gave up a 4.64 ERA while striking out fewer than 16% of opponents. He throws strikes but doesn’t have the stuff he did at his peak in Japan. Sugano isn’t going to approach last winter’s $15MM guarantee on a one-year deal this time around.

Potential Minor League Deals

Paul Blackburn (32)
Carlos Carrasco (39)
Alex Cobb (38)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Anthony DeSclafani (36)
Erick Fedde (33)
Austin Gomber (32)
Kyle Hart (33) ^
Andrew Heaney (35)
Kenta Maeda (38) **
Triston McKenzie (28)
Wade Miley (39)
Cal Quantrill (31)
Marcus Stroman (35)
José Ureña (34)
Bryse Wilson (28)
Ryan Yarbrough (34)

Note: Charlie Morton is technically a free agent. It’s widely expected that he’ll retire after signing a ceremonial deal to make a final appearance with the Braves on the last day of the regular season. He has yet to make an official announcement, however.

* Expected to be made available via posting system
^ Assumes buyout of club option
** Plans to pitch in Japan in 2026

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

By Darragh McDonald | at October 23, 2025 12:56pm CDT

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

The group of right-handed relievers is a real mixed bag, as usual. There are established closers, guys looking for bouncebacks and plenty of other wildcards. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter

Closers Expected To Opt Out

Edwin Díaz (32)

Díaz has the ability to opt out of his deal and he should do so. He would be walking away from $38MM over two years but he should be able to beat that, even after rejecting a qualifying offer. The best relievers generally get around $20MM on multi-year deals. Díaz himself got $102MM over five years on his current deal, plus the opt-out. Josh Hader got $95MM over five. Tanner Scott got $72MM over four. Liam Hendriks got $54MM over three.

While Díaz isn’t quite as good as he was a few years ago, he’s still one of the best relievers around. He struck out 50.2% of batters faced in 2022 just before getting his last deal. He then missed the entire 2023 season due to right knee surgery. His 2024 and 2025 seasons have seen his strikeout rate down a bit below 40%, a big drop from 2022, but still with excellent results overall.

Over the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Díaz tossed 120 innings with a 2.48 earned run average, 38.4% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. He earned 48 saves in that span. Among pitchers with at least ten innings pitched over those two years, only Mason Miller had a higher strikeout rate. Díaz allowed fewer walks and got more grounders than Miller. He missed time in 2024 due to a shoulder impingement and a sticky stuff suspension but he stayed on the roster throughout 2025 and posted a 1.63 ERA on the year. He’s a few years older than last time but still young enough to get a strong multi-year deal.

Robert Suarez (35)

Suarez can also walk away from two guaranteed years and has a strong case to do so. He tossed 69 2/3 innings for the Padres this year with a 2.97 ERA. He struck out 27.9% of batters faced and only gave out walks at a 5.9% clip. He racked up 40 saves, his second straight year with at least 36.

His deal only pays him $8MM annually for the next two seasons, meaning he would be walking away from just $16MM by opting out. He should be able to beat that guarantee but might still be limited to two years offers on account of his age. It’s possible that the Padres won’t issue him a qualifying offer. $22.025MM on a one-year deal would be a lot for a closer who is pretty good but not elite. That’s especially true for the Friars, given their perennially tight payroll. Assuming he doesn’t get tagged with a QO, that will help his market.

Big Helium Guy

Brad Keller (30)

Keller spent a bunch of years as a decent groundball starter for the Royals. Some of those years were okay. Others were not. He had surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome late in 2023. He didn’t do much in 2024 and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Cubs coming into 2025.

That deal worked out tremendously for both sides. Keller was used as a reliever and was able to average about 97 miles per hour on his fastball, up a few ticks from his time as a starter. He gave the Cubs 69 2/3 innings with a 2.07 ERA. His 27.2% strikeout rate was about 10 points higher than his earlier rotation work. He didn’t sacrifice any of the ground balls, as his 56.1% rate this year was actually a career high. His 8% walk rate was around average. He worked his way into a leverage role with the Cubs, earning three saves and 25 holds.

This is just one season after some time in the injury wilderness and with some mediocre results prior to that. However, pitchers have been able to ride this kind of momentum to nice multi-year deals before. Jeff Hoffman and Robert Stephenson are some recent examples of guys who didn’t pan out as starters before reinventing themselves as relievers. Both signed deals worth $33MM over three years.

Hoffman had two strong relief years, compared to Keller having just one. Stephenson was only good for about half a year before his deal but his level of dominance in that span was more extreme. The Stephenson deal has blown up on the Angels since he’s been hurt since signing, but Hoffman became Toronto’s closer and has just helped them to the World Series.

They are not perfect analogies but the point is Keller could have big earning power, even with just one really strong season. It’s also possible some clubs want to stretch him back out. Clay Holmes got $38MM over three years, with the Mets hoping his ground balls could help him eat some rotation innings. That bet largely worked out after one year, with Holmes posting a 3.53 ERA in 2025.
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Veteran Closers

Kyle Finnegan (34)

Finnegan has racked up 112 saves over the past five seasons, mostly with the Nationals, but he also notched a few with the Tigers this year after a deadline deal. His rate stats have been more good than great. From 2021 to 2024, he had a 3.62 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 47.2% ground ball rate. Ahead of the 2025 season, the Nationals non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $8.6MM salary for his final year of club control.

After lingering on the market for a while, Finnegan returned to the Nats in early March, a $6MM guarantee with some deferrals. He pitched okay and got flipped to Detroit at the deadline, when his results ticked up. The Tigers had him throw his splitter way more, at the expense of his fastball. In 18 innings after the deal, he had a 1.50 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. He also made six postseason appearances but without the same level of dominance.

The track record of being a passable closer is already pretty good. Last time he was a free agent, he didn’t have a ton of juice, but perhaps some clubs will be intrigued by the extra gear he showed down the stretch with the different pitch mix. That could get him into multi-year deal territory.

Raisel Iglesias (36)

Iglesias has a pretty lengthy track record of reliability in the closer’s role. He racked up 28 saves with the Reds back in 2017 and has reached double digits in each full season since then. He was a free agent four years ago and secured a four-year, $58MM deal from the Angels, though he was traded to Atlanta in the first season of that pact.

He’s now older and coming off an uneven year. He had a 4.42 ERA but settled down with a 1.76 ERA in the second half. Altogether, he tossed 67 1/3 innings with a 3.21 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. His age could limit him to one-year offers but a second year isn’t totally out of the question. In recent years, pitchers like Blake Treinen, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and Mark Melancon have received two-year deals worth $14MM or more for their age-37 seasons. Iglesias will be one year younger than that.

Kenley Jansen (38)

Jansen is one of most successful closers in baseball history. He now has 476 saves, fourth on the all-time list. He’s still miles away from Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman but he’s only two saves away from tying Lee Smith in the number three spot.

Due to his age, he’s been signing short-term deals lately. He got a one-year pact with Atlanta in 2022, two years with the Red Sox for 2023-24, then one with the Angels for 2025. He just wrapped up another good season. He gave the Halos 59 innings with a 2.59 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He’s not as dominant as he once was but still racked up 29 saves. Another solid one-year deal should be out there for him somewhere.

Emilio Pagán (35)

Pagán has been in the big leagues for years with a pretty consistent profile. His strikeout and walk rates are good but he gives up too many home runs. Despite the flaws, he was a free agent two years ago and secured a two-year, $16MM guarantee with an opt-out.

That deal was with the Reds, a club with one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the majors. Predictably, the first year didn’t go well. Pagán missed a couple of months with a lat strain and posted a 4.50 ERA. He decided not to trigger his opt out, staying in Cincinnati for 2025.

Surprisingly, that worked out. Pagán logged 68 2/3 innings this year with a 2.88 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He seemingly had a bit of help from a .200 batting average on balls in play and 76.5% strand rate. Regardless, his 3.72 FIP and 3.18 SIERA suggest he would have done okay even with less luck from the baseball gods. He took over the closer’s role and racked up 32 saves.

The under-the-hood numbers will give clubs some pause but Pagán had enough interest to get a nice multi-year deal the last time he was out there. He’s obviously older now but is perhaps heading back to the market with some nice juice after some success in the ninth inning.

Notable Bounceback Candidates

Hunter Harvey (31)

The injury bug has been on Harvey for the past year-plus. The Royals acquired him from the Nationals in July of 2024. Unfortunately, mid-back tightness put him on the injured list for most of the remainder of that season. In 2025, a teres major strain and a right adductor strain wiped out most of the season. He only made 18 appearances for the Royals despite being with them for about a year and a half.

There will be some natural uncertainty with Harvey after those absences but the numbers are good. Dating back to the start of 2022, he has thrown 161 1/3 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate. He earned 11 saves and 58 holds in that time. There’s some health risk but Harvey makes for an intriguing buy-low opportunity, likely on a one-year deal.

Ryan Helsley (31)

One year ago, Helsley seemed on track to be one of the top relievers of this winter’s class. That is no longer the case. He finished 2025 with a 4.50 ERA. He was particularly bad after being traded to the Mets at the deadline, with a 7.20 ERA after that swap.

That performance obviously cuts into his earning power, but some clubs may be able to find some glimmers of hope. The pre-2025 track record is great. From 2022 to 2024, he logged 167 2/3 innings with a 1.83 ERA while striking out 34.6% of batters faced. It’s been suggested that his struggles this year were the result of him tipping his pitches, so his results could come back with a minor adjustment. His velocity is mostly still there, as he averaged 99.3 mph this year, only a slight drop from his 99.7 mph peak.

The more pessimistic perspective is that Helsley has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now. His strikeout rate peaked at 39.3% in 2022 but has been dropping since. It was 35.6% in 2023 and 29.7% last year. Here in 2025, he dropped to 26.1% with Cards and then to 23.2% after being traded to the Mets. There are likely clubs who can see a way to reverse the trends but he might be limited to one-year pillow offers. It’s possible the velocity gets enough interest that he commands a two-year deal with an opt-out.

Liam Hendriks (36)

Hendriks was one of the top closers in baseball from 2019 to 2022 but he’s mostly been in the wilderness since. He missed time early in 2023 while getting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He was able to beat cancer and get back on the mound that summer but then required Tommy John surgery in August.

He signed a two-year deal with the Red Sox for 2024 and 2025 but missed all of 2024 while recovering. The Sox were surely hoping for a fully healthy season from Hendriks in 2025 but didn’t get it. He was on and off the IL all year due to elbow/forearm issues, making 14 appearances for the big league club. He underwent a right elbow ulnar nerve transposition surgery at the end of September. His health status for next season isn’t clear.

Michael Kopech (30)

Kopech never really made it as a starter but a bullpen move in 2024 seemed to be the right path for him. Between the White Sox and Dodgers that year, he tossed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA. His 12.2% walk rate was high but he punched out 31.5% of batters faced. He racked up 15 saves and nine holds on the year.

2025 was mostly a lost season, however, as he only logged 11 innings. Reports of forearm inflammation popped up way back in January. He started the season on the IL due to a shoulder impingement, reportedly due to him trying to quickly ramp up for the Tokyo Series after the forearm stuff. He was off the IL in early June but was back on the shelf later than month due to right knee inflammation. He underwent surgery to address a torn meniscus in July. He came off the IL at the start of September but inflammation in that knee put him back on the IL a few weeks later. Even as the Dodgers have pushed into the World Series, there’s been no suggestion that Kopech is getting close to rejoining the roster. The injuries probably limit Kopech to a one-year deal but there’s perhaps some intriguing upside based on his 2024 breakout.

Jose Leclerc (32)

Leclerc spent the 2016 to 2024 seasons with the Rangers. He tossed 360 1/3 innings with a 3.27 ERA. His 13.2% walk rate was high but he also punched out 31.2% of batters faced. He was a key part of the club’s 2023 World Series run.

The Athletics gave him a one-year, $10MM deal for the 2025 season, but that investment turned into a bust. Leclerc only tossed nine innings for the A’s before requiring season-ending shoulder surgery. It’s unclear if he’s expected to be healthy by the start of next season.

Jordan Romano (33)

Romano had a three-year run as the Blue Jays closer. From 2021 to 2023, he racked up 95 saves while posting a 2.37 ERA with a 30.3% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate. But in 2024, he was on and off the IL with elbow issues and only tossed 13 2/3 innings. The Jays non-tendered him instead of paying a projected $7.75MM salary for his final arbitration season.

The Phils tried for a bounceback, giving Romano $8.5MM. It didn’t pan out. Romano posted an 8.23 ERA across 42 2/3 innings this year. It surely wasn’t quite as bad as that ERA makes it seem. His 49% strand rate in 2025 was tiny. His 25.1% strikeout rate wasn’t as high as his peak but was still pretty good. His 3.66 SIERA would suggest he was extremely unlucky.

Even if luck played a notable role, Romano should have less earning power than a year ago. His 95.5 mph fastball velocity was a couple of ticks below his peak and even below the 96.4 he managed in his injury-marred 2024 campaign.

Paul Sewald (36)

Sewald racked up double digit saves in each season from 2021 to 2024. In that span, he tossed 229 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. The final year of that stretch wasn’t his best. He battled some injuries and lost the closer’s role in Arizona.

Though he went into free agency on a bit of a down note, the Guardians still gave him a $7MM guarantee on a one-year deal. He technically has a mutual option for 2026 but those provisions are almost never picked up by both sides. The Guards twice put him on the IL due to a shoulder strain. He was still on the IL at the deadline when he was flipped to the Tigers, with Detroit absorbing the roughly $2.6MM still to be paid out. He made four appearances for the Tigers late in the year but didn’t crack the playoff roster.

Sewald finished this year with a 4.58 ERA, 24.7% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. Those aren’t disastrous numbers and it’s perhaps notable that the Guards and Tigers were both willing to spend money on him this year. However, his fastball velocity was down to 90.4 mph this year around the shoulder issues.

Devin Williams (31)

Williams came into this year as one of the best relievers alive. From 2020 to 2024, he tossed 222 innings with a minuscule 1.70 ERA. His 12% walk rate was high but he counteracted that by striking out 40.8% of batters faced and keeping 48.9% of balls in play on the ground. After Josh Hader was traded, Williams took over the closer’s role in Milwaukee. He earned 36 saves in 2023, though back issues limited him to just 14 in 2024.

He was traded to the Yankees ahead of the 2025 season and went on to post a 4.79 ERA, eventually losing his grip on the closer’s role. However, most of his underlying stats were still strong. His 34.7% strikeout rate and 44.6% ground ball rate moved in the wrong direction but were both still well above average. His 9.7% walk rate was actually his best in years.

The main reason for his ERA spike seems to be bad luck. His 55.2% strand rate was well below the 72.3% league average and his career rate of 75.8%. ERA estimators like his 2.68 FIP and 2.67 SIERA suggest he was almost as dominant as before.

There will perhaps be some talk that Williams couldn’t handle the bright lights of New York City but some may ignore that. For any team overlooking the fluky-looking ERA spike, it’s a chance to grab one of the best pitchers in baseball, perhaps with a soft market. A two-year deal with an opt-out could be possible but it’s also feasible that there’s enough faith in his stuff to get him a strong three- or four-year deal.

Kirby Yates (39)

Yates has been really up and down lately. He had a massive breakout a few years back, including a 41-save season with a 1.19 ERA in the juiced-ball campaign of 2019. Then he was in the injury wilderness for a while but gradually got back on track. He racked up 33 saves for the Rangers in 2024 while posting a 1.17 ERA with a 35.9% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate.

The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $13MM deal for 2025. He spent time on the IL with hamstring and back injuries. Around those, he tossed 41 1/3 innings with a 5.23 ERA. His 29.2% strikeout rate was actually quite good and his 9.6% walk rate acceptable, but 17% of his fly balls left the yard. He finished the season on the shelf with a hamstring strain and hasn’t appeared in the postseason for the Dodgers.

Some ERA estimators consider home runs to be the fault of the pitcher while others consider them to be more random. That perhaps explains the difference between Yates’s 4.76 FIP and 3.33 SIERA this year. Regardless, it wasn’t an ideal season. But he’s shown an elite ceiling in the past, including as recently as last year, so another decent one-year deal could be out there for him.

Veteran Setup Guys

Shawn Armstrong (35)

Armstrong has 421 1/3 career innings under his belt with a 3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. The Rangers scooped him up for $1.25MM on a one-year deal for 2025. He gave them 74 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. He earned nine saves and 12 holds. He should get another one-year deal from some club looking to bolster the setup group.

Seranthony Domínguez (31)

Domínguez has long been a power arm in the big leagues, combining good strikeout and ground ball numbers with some wildness. He has thrown 306 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate and 45.3% ground ball rate. He does have 40 career saves but has never topped 16 in a season. He’s been deployed more as a setup guy, with 78 holds in his career.

The Blue Jays acquired him from the Orioles at the trade deadline. The move came as the two clubs were playing a doubleheader against each other, which allowed Domínguez to swap clubhouses between the two games. He’s been a key part of Toronto’s playoff bullpen, having already made seven appearances.

He’s not the best reliever in this post but there’s a lot to like. His fastball averages almost 98 mph, helping him get those strikeouts and grounders. He added a splitter this year to try to even out his platoon splits, though he still struggled with lefties in 2025. A decent multi-year deal is a possibility.

Chris Martin (40)

Martin said a year ago that 2025 would likely be his final season. He hasn’t yet confirmed that, but it’s possible he’s now going to retire. If he wants to come back for one more, he should have interest. He got a one-year, $5.5MM deal from the Rangers for 2025 and delivered solid results. He posted a 2.98 ERA over 42 1/3 innings. He struck out 24.7% of batters faced and continued to show his elite control with a 4.6% walk rate.

Phil Maton (33)

Maton always puts up good numbers but the market never really seems to value him, likely due to his middling velocity. He got $6.5MM from the Rays two offseasons ago and just $2MM from the Cards last winter. Between the Cards and Rangers this year, he logged 61 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. Based on precedent, another one-year deal should be a bargain for some club out there.

Tyler Rogers (35)

Rogers has even less velocity than Maton, as his fastballs average in the low-to-mid-80s. However, there’s not really another pitcher like him in the majors. His submariner delivery is incredibly unique. He’s very durable, having never gone on the big league injured list, which has allowed him to toss at least 70 innings in each of the last five seasons. Over those five seasons, he has a 2.71 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate isn’t impressive but his 4.4% walk rate is tiny and his 56.3% ground ball rate is huge. He’s one of the best in the league at staying off barrels and limiting hard contact.

Teams generally prefer to have power pitchers in their setup roles but Rogers appears to be a special case. He reached 30 holds in four of the last five seasons. The Mets made him a key deadline pickup, sending a notable package of talent to the Giants. They then had him in a high leverage role down the stretch. That’s partly due to the struggles of Helsley and others but Rogers also held his own with a 2.30 ERA for the Mets.

It’s one of the harder markets to predict. Will teams overlook the nonexistent velocity and tiny strikeout numbers, focusing more on the control and weak contact? Or will clubs scoff at the profile like with Maton?

Luke Weaver (32)

Weaver’s career as a starter went through many ups and downs but he finally settled in as a solid reliever in recent years. Going into 2024, the Yankees signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal with a $2.5MM club option for 2025 and performance bonuses. That turned into a bargain for them. Weaver tossed 148 2/3 innings over the course of that pact with a 3.21 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. He earned 12 saves and 43 holds.

The deal ended on a sour note, as Weaver allowed five runs over three postseason appearances, recording just one out. But from a wider viewpoint, it was two years of solid setup man results. Those kinds of guys can often find solid multi-year pacts, with recent examples including Jordan Hicks, Clay Holmes, Rafael Montero, Taylor Rogers and Reynaldo López. Some of those guys were signed to be stretched out as starters, something that Weaver hasn’t closed the door on.

Swing Types

Jakob Junis (33)

Junis has worked as both as a starter and a reliever throughout most of his career, though he was exclusively used as a reliever in 2025. The Guardians gave him a one-year, $4.5MM deal coming into the season. He gave them 66 2/3 innings with a 2.97 ERA. His 20.1% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.6% clip. It was mostly low leverage work, as he earned only six holds and no saves. He should be able to secure another one-year pact for a low-leverage relief role or a gig as a swingman.

Nick Martinez (35)

Martinez has shown a decent ability to be shuttled back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. His relief work is better but his starting work is passable and teams seem to value that flexibility. The Reds surprisingly made him a $21.05MM qualifying offer a year ago, which he accepted. He gave them 165 2/3 innings over 26 starts and 14 relief appearances. His 4.45 ERA wasn’t amazing, nor was his 17% strikeout rate, but he only walked 6.1% of batters faced and did a good job limiting hard contact. He had a 2.61 ERA in his relief outings this year, though while only striking out 11.1% of opponents.

Prior to accepting this QO, he was able to secure multi-year deals with opt-outs, seeming to have a strong willingness to bet on himself and repeatedly return to the market. He’s getting older now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get another multi-year pact.

Michael Soroka (28)

Is Soroka a starter? The question seems to always go unanswered. After many years in the injury wilderness, he had an intriguing 2024 season with the White Sox. He didn’t pan out as a starter but finished the year strong as a multi-inning reliever. He logged 36 frames over his final 16 appearances with a 2.75 ERA and 39% strikeout rate, though the 13% walk rate was ugly.

The Nats gave him a one-year, $9MM deal and an opportunity to start again. He started for them 16 times with a 4.87 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 42.6% ground ball rate. Those are decent numbers but it’s still not clear if he should be facing hitters multiple times. He held opponents to a .193/.250/.329 line when facing them the first time but gave up a .218/.302/.395 line the second time through. Hitters facing him a third time slashed .319/.467/.574.

He was traded to the Cubs ahead of the deadline but made just one more start before a shoulder strain sent him to the IL. He was able to come off the shelf late in the year but was kept in the bullpen. If he wants another shot at starting, he should be able to find one since a relief role is a decent fallback, though there’s enough uncertainty that he’ll likely still be limited to another one-year deal.

Options/Opt-Outs

Scott Barlow (33)

The Reds signed Barlow to a one-year, $2.5MM deal last offseason. That came in the form of a $1.5MM salary and a $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option. He gave them 68 1/3 innings with a 4.21 ERA, basically in line with the 4.25 ERA he had with Cleveland the year prior. However, his strikeout rate dropped from 28.2% to 24.8%, his walk rate climbed from 12.9% to 14.9% and his grounder rate fell from 47.1% to 42.9%. With the needles moving in the wrong direction, the Reds should cut their losses, which would leave Barlow looking for another one-year deal.

Pete Fairbanks (32)

Fairbanks can be retained via an $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout. His strikeout rate isn’t quite what it once was, but he’s still getting decent results. He just gave the Rays 60 1/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate. He recorded 27 saves, his third straight season with at least 23. The net $10MM decision is justifiable enough for the Rays to pick it up, though they will probably trade Fairbanks to a club with a bigger payroll.

Pierce Johnson (35)

Johnson’s deal contains a $7MM club option with a $250K buyout. His strikeout rate dropped to 24.8% in 2025, after being around 30% in prior seasons. On the other hand, his control improved. His walk rate landed at 8% this year after being in the 10-13% range for many seasons before that. The result was a 3.05 ERA, 16 holds and one save. He’s not elite but Atlanta has plenty of bullpen questions and probably picks this up.

Tyler Kinley (35)

Despite being out of contention at the deadline, Atlanta acquired Kinley from the Rockies, presumably because they wanted to bolster their 2026 bullpen without having to wait for the offseason. Kinley’s contains a $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout. After getting away from Coors Field, he gave Atlanta 25 innings with 0.72 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. It would be a surprise if he’s not back in the Atlanta bullpen next year.

Andrew Kittredge (36)

Kittredge signed a one-year, $10MM pact with the Orioles last winter. That came in the form of a $9MM salary and $1MM buyout on a $9MM club option for 2026. A left knee injury kept him out of action until mid-May but he got back on track and was dealt to the Cubs at the deadline. Between those two teams, he tossed 53 innings with a 3.40 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate. He made Chicago’s playoff roster and made five more appearances in the postseason.

Given his continued strong results, $8MM feels like a fair price to keep Kittredge around. That’s especially true for the Cubs, who seem to prefer to avoid lengthy and expensive investments in the relief corps.

Jonathan Loáisiga (31)

Loáisiga has some talent but hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a lengthy period of time lately. He started this season on the injured list, recovering from UCL surgery. He came off the IL but had to head back there due to back tightness. While on the IL, he suffered a flexor strain that ended his season. Even when on the mound, his 18.5% strikeout rate was well below the mid-20s rates he had in his earlier seasons. There’s a $5MM club option, with no buyout, but the Yanks should be able to walk away. Even if they want to give him another shot, they should be able to get him back for less than that.

Andrés Muñoz (27)

Muñoz is one of the best closers in baseball. The club option is only for $7MM and there are two affordable club options for 2027 and 2028. This is definitely getting picked up.

Drew Smith (32)

Smith required UCL surgery in July of 2024, just a few months before reaching free agency. The Mets signed him to a one-year deal with a $1MM salary in 2025 with a $2MM club option for 2026. He didn’t pitch at all in 2025 but the $2MM price point is fair if the Mets expect him to be ready for a full healthy season in 2026. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 161 1/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate.

Established Japanese Arms

Takahiro Norimoto (35)

Norimoto had a long run as a successful starter for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He moved to the bullpen in 2024, his age-33 season, and has spent the past two seasons as the Eagles’ closer. A 3.23 ERA and 48 saves in 53 tries through 108 2/3 frames as closer looks solid enough, but Norimoto’s strikeout rate has fallen to around 18%. His fastball was still touching 98 mph in 2024, but MLBTR spoke to a scout who clocked him 92-94 mph during the current season. Norimoto’s track record might get him a big league deal, but it’d probably be a cheap deal along the lines of those signed by countrymen Yoshihisa Hirano (two years, $6MM) and Hirokazu Sawamura (two years, $3MM) when they jumped to the majors in their mid-30s. A non-roster deal is also possible, and Norimoto could probably earn decent money staying in Japan if MLB offers aren’t enticing.

Kona Takahashi (29)

The Seibu Lions are expected to post Takahashi this offseason. The right-hander has a 3.39 ERA in nearly 1200 innings at Japan’s top level. He’s coming off a 3.04 mark over 148 innings. While the run prevention is solid, Takahashi doesn’t have the bat-missing stuff that’d generate huge big league interest. He struck out just 14% of opponents this past season. An MLB deal is possible, but he’s unlikely to command more than a couple million dollars. There are some similarities between Takahshi and Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who signed a two-year, $3.5MM deal and pitched in a swing role for the Nationals.

Depth Types

Scott Blewett (30)
Ryan Brasier (38)
John Brebbia (36)
Nabil Crismatt (31)
Chris Devenski (35)
Alexis Díaz (29)
Dane Dunning (31)
Chris Flexen (31)
Luis García (39)
Kendall Graveman (35)
Chad Green (35)
Carlos Hernández (29)
Luke Jackson (34)
Tommy Kahnle (36)
Jorge López (33)
Shelby Miller (35)
Rafael Montero (35)
Héctor Neris (37)
Adam Ottavino (40)
Ryan Pressly (37)
Tanner Rainey (33)
Erasmo Ramírez (36)
Joe Ross (33)
Tayler Scott (34)
Lucas Sims (32)
Ryne Stanek (34)
Chris Stratton (35)
Hunter Strickland (37)
Erik Swanson (32)
Lou Trivino (34)
José Ureña (34)
Bryse Wilson (28)
Jake Woodford (29)

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

Kazuma Okamoto To Be Posted This Offseason

By Nick Deeds | at October 22, 2025 7:19am CDT

NPB infielder Kazuma Okamoto will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason, according to an announcement made by the Yomiuri Giants and Okamoto himself during a press conference earlier today. Yahoo Sports Japan (Japanese language link) was among the outlets to report on the news, which comes on the heels of reporting last month that Okamoto was expected to be posted this winter.

Despite that previous reporting, the 29-year-old Okamoto’s was not viewed as a certain thing due in part to Yomiuri’s history of being reluctant to allow their star players to utilize the posting system. Okamoto certainly fits that description, seeing as he’s the club’s captain and a six-time All-Star with two Gold Gloves and three NPB home run titles to his name. He was limited to just 69 Central League games this year due to an elbow injury caused by a collision at first base, but in the 293 trips to the plate he managed to take he raked to the tune of a .327/.416/.598 slash line. He managed 15 homers, 21 doubles, and a triple in less than half a full season’s work with identical 11.3% strikeout and walk rates.

It’s that blend of power and discipline that has led teams to scout Okamoto for the past several years in anticipation of his eventual move stateside. Since his rookie age-22 season back in 2018, Okamoto has hit 274 home runs in 1,039 Central League games. He’s homered once every 16.2 plate appearances in that eight-year stretch with a 17.7% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.8%. It’s certainly an impressive resume, and his career .277/.361/.521 slash line in NPB compares quite favorably to the NPB slash lines of current big league sluggers Shohei Ohtani (.286/.358/.500) and Seiya Suzuki (.315/.414/.570). That Suzuki was a better hitter in NPB than Ohtani was should demonstrate the fact that NPB stats don’t always perfectly reflect how a player will perform in the majors.

Much of that is due to the lack of high-end velocity in NPB, which creates uncertainty about how hitters will handle the improved velocity in the majors. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Okamoto’s numbers against heaters greater than 94 mph “fall off a cliff,” which could be a problem seeing as the average four-seam fastball velocity in MLB this season was 94.4 mph. Of course, some of those struggles could simply be due to limited exposure; Longenhagen notes that Okamoto saw only around 200 fastballs at that velocity all season last year. It’s entirely possible his numbers could improve against high-end velocity with more experience facing those types of pitchers, but it’s nonetheless a concern interested clubs will need to consider as they weigh a pursuit of Okamoto’s services.

Another consideration is where Okamoto will be able to play. He’s played around 60% of his NPB games at third base, but has also received plenty of time at first base with an increased workload at that position in recent years plus occasional starts in the outfield corners. One of the corner infield spots seems most likely to be his defensive home in the majors, and while it’s certainly possible there are MLB clubs that view Okamoto as a capable third baseman, Jeff Passan of ESPN suggests that at least some teams view him as better suited for first base, where he’s drawn rave reviews defensively for his work in Japan.

Now that Okamoto is poised to be posted, he’s sure to draw significant multi-year interest in the majors. He’ll face competition from fellow NPB corner infielder Munetaka Murakami in the posting market this winter, who is four years younger than Okamoto with a .270/.394/.557 NPB slash line that’s even more impressive. In terms of stateside players, the biggest names on the first base market are Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Luis Arraez while the third base market is headlined by Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez. The Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, and Padres are among the teams who need help at at least one corner infield spot this winter, while teams like the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Phillies, and Tigers could also make sense depending on how the rest of their roster decisions play out.

Okamoto won’t be officially posted for some time yet, as that process typically begins between late November and mid December. Once he’s been posted, MLB teams will have 45 days to negotiate a contract with Okamoto. The club that ultimately lands him with owe the Yomiuri Giants a posting fee on top of Okamoto’s contract. That fee adds up to 20% of the first $25MM spent on Okamoto, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any spending over $50MM. As an example, when the Cubs signed Suzuki during the 2021-22 offseason, the posting fee on that $85MM deal came in at roughly $14.6MM. The posting fee on Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s $325MM contract with the Dodgers, meanwhile, came in at approximately $50.6MM.

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents Newsstand Nippon Professional Baseball Kazuma Okamoto

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By Anthony Franco | at October 21, 2025 10:02pm CDT

The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.

No-Doubters

Dylan Cease (Padres)
Edwin Díaz (Mets)
Ranger Suárez (Phillies)
Framber Valdez (Astros)

This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.

Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.

Likely Recipients

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
Michael King (Padres)
Brandon Woodruff (Brewers)

All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.

King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.

Borderline Calls

Jack Flaherty (Tigers)

Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.

The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).

Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)

The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.

Shota Imanaga (Cubs)

Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

Unlikely/Long Shots

Brad Keller (Cubs)
Tyler Mahle (Rangers)
Robert Suarez (Padres)
Luke Weaver (Yankees)
Devin Williams (Yankees)

This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.

Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.

Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.

Ineligible

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

By Anthony Franco | at October 21, 2025 7:30pm CDT

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Before we move on to the pitching, we’ll wrap up the offensive group by looking at the designated hitters. Every position player technically could play DH, of course, but the vast majority of the class has been covered in one of our prior positional previews. We’ll limit this look to players who are either primary designated hitters or took at least 200 plate appearances at the position this year. Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

Top of the Class

Kyle Schwarber (33)

With the exception of Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber is the top free agent designated hitter in years. He’s going to become the first pure DH to sign a nine-figure contract after blasting an NL-best 56 home runs and leading MLB with 132 runs driven in. Schwarber played in all 162 games and batted .240/.365/.563 over 724 trips to the plate.

Schwarber hit 38+ homers in all four seasons of the free agent contract he’d signed with Philadelphia. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he’s among the five best power hitters in the sport. He’s also adored in the Philly clubhouse, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made no secret about their desire to keep him. Schwarber is going to decline a qualifying offer and should be in position for a four-year contract that pays more than $25MM annually. There’s a non-zero chance that a team stretches to five years to push the overall guarantee above $130MM.

Regular DH Options

Josh Bell (33)

The ever streaky Bell alternated bad and excellent months throughout the season. He had a .730 OPS or below in each of April, June and August while posting an .860 or better in May, July and September. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 batting line with 22 home runs across 533 plate appearances. For all his inconsistency within seasons, Bell has reliably ended up as a slightly above-average hitter in each of the past three years. He should command another one-year deal.

Starling Marte (37)

After consecutive seasons of declining production, Marte had a bit of a rebound in a part-time role for the Mets. He hit .270/.335/.410 over 329 plate appearances. Marte only hit seven homers and isn’t the kind of power bat that teams will want as an everyday DH, but he can take 250-300 at-bats while playing a part-time corner outfield role.

Andrew McCutchen (39)

Cutch has signed a series of one-year, $5MM deals with the Pirates over the past few seasons. This year’s .239/.333/.367 line with 13 homers is his worst production of his three-year second stint in Pittsburgh. McCutchen still has a strong awareness of the strike zone, but he’s no longer a threat for 25-30 homers at this stage of his career. It seems likely he’ll work out another cheap one-year deal with the Bucs.

Marcell Ozuna (35)

Ozuna is the cheap alternative to Schwarber as a true everyday designated hitter. He’s only one season removed from being one of the sport’s best offensive players. Ozuna combined for 79 home runs with a .289/.364/.552 slash between 2023-24. He’s coming off an underwhelming walk year at age 34, as he regressed to a .232/.355/.400 batting line with 21 homers over 592 trips to the plate. It’s still above-average offensive output but not great production for a player who hasn’t logged a single inning on defense in two years.

The in-season trend lines were not encouraging. Ozuna hit .280/.426/.457 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts through the end of May. For a while, he looked as if he’d be one of the best rental hitters available at the trade deadline. He then went through a three-month slog in which he hit .185/.300/.362 over 278 plate appearances. That killed any chance of the Braves getting more than marginal salary relief, so they kept him for the stretch run. Ozuna rebounded somewhat to hit .261 in September, but he struck out at a 32% clip and only connected on one home run in the season’s final month. He’ll be limited to a one-year deal that might be half of the $16MM salary he collected this past season.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 line.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He’s a long shot candidate for a qualifying offer but will likely hit free agency without draft compensation. He should get at least a two-year deal and has a chance for three.

Bench Bats

Wilmer Flores (34)

Flores got out to a strong start to the season, popping seven home runs with a penchant for clutch hits in April. He had a pedestrian .245/.315/.365 batting line from the beginning of May onwards. Flores has made a career as a versatile defender who hits left-handed pitching, but he’s essentially limited to DH and first base at this point. He only has a .228/.278/.371 slash against southpaws over the past two seasons and may need to take a minor league deal.

Mitch Garver (35)

Garver logged nearly 400 innings behind the plate as Cal Raleigh’s backup. The Mariners signed him with the expectation that he’d be their primary designated hitter, but he hit .187/.290/.341 in 201 games over two seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Justin Turner (41)

Turner got $6MM from the Cubs last offseason to work as a veteran righty bat off the bench. He hit .219/.288/.314 over 80 games in his age-40 season and is probably looking at a minor league deal if he continues playing.

Jesse Winker (32)

Winker landed a $7.5MM guarantee to re-sign with the Mets last offseason. He’ll probably be limited to minor league offers this winter after oblique and back injuries limited him to 26 games.

Player Options

Joc Pederson (34)

Pederson will exercise a $16.5MM player option with Texas after hitting .181/.285/.328 over 306 plate appearances. The Rangers will need a huge rebound from a player who’d hit .275/.393/.515 with the Diamondbacks in 2024.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Corner Outfield

By Darragh McDonald | at October 21, 2025 4:34pm CDT

We’re moving to the outfield corners, where there are a couple of strong everyday guys but then a huge drop-off to the lower tiers. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field

Top of the Class

Kyle Tucker (29)

Tucker isn’t going into free agency with the ideal amount of momentum. His 2024 season was truncated by a shin fracture. His 2025 campaign was dragged down by a finger fracture and a calf strain. He missed some time and didn’t perform up to expectations in the last few months before hitting the open market.

Regardless, he’s head and shoulders above everyone else listed here. Even with the recent hiccups, he’s been one of the best players in baseball for a few years now. Dating back to the start of 2020, he has a combined .276/.362/.513 batting line and 141 wRC+. He has stolen 113 bases in that time and generally been given strong grades for his defense. FanGraphs has credited him with 25.2 wins above replacement in that stretch, a mark that puts him behind only ten position players.

The injuries may create a bit of uncertainty but his record is otherwise very solid, well-rounded and consistent. For teams looking for a clear and immediate corner outfield upgrade, he’s the obvious choice. Big spenders like the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Angels, Rangers and Giants have outfield questions and could push the bidding up. Re-signing with the Cubs would be out of character for that club but they clearly love him, since they gave up a lot to get him a year ago. A dark-horse team like the Mariners, Orioles, Tigers or Rays could also be possible. He will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Cubs and will therefore be attached to the associated penalties, though that will be a small consideration for a player like this.

Everyday Regulars

Cody Bellinger (30)

It has already been reported that Bellinger will be opting out of his deal, which should come as no surprise. He’ll take a $5MM buyout instead of next year’s $25MM salary, leaving $20MM on the table. That’s an easy decision, as he should be able to top that handily. His previous trips to free agency haven’t yielded the desired long-term deal, but he should be in a better spot this time around. His dismal 2021 and 2022 seasons now seem like distant memories. That’s also true of his 2019 MVP form, but he has settled in as a solid everyday player.

With the Yankees this year, Bellinger hit 29 home runs. He only struck out 13.7% of the time, and he stole 13 bases. His defense was passable in center but above-average in the corners. He slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. FanGraphs gave him 4.9 fWAR for the season.

There are some questions under the hood. The offense might not be totally sustainable. His batted ball metrics are relatively pedestrian, and he likely benefitted from the short porch at Yankee Stadium. All of this year’s homers were to the pull side. He slashed .302/.365/.544 at home but .241/.301/.414 on the road. He probably won’t be considered an everyday center fielder since he hasn’t done that since 2022. Still, he’s the best corner outfield option apart from Tucker, and there’s a big drop to the next tier. Bellinger won’t receive a QO because he’s already received one in his career and is therefore ineligible. He should get a strong multi-year deal.

Mike Yastrzemski (35)

After Tucker and Bellinger, there’s a clear drop. Guys like Trent Grisham, Cedric Mullins and Harrison Bader may get consideration for corner jobs but the center field market is also not strong, so they can probably find up-the-middle gigs.

That leaves Yaz as arguably the best solid regular after Tucker and Bellinger. He’s been a decent player for years now. He’s not a superstar but has generally been above-average at the plate and in the field. He’s had five straight seasons with a wRC+ between 99 and 111. He has produced between 3 and 9 Defensive Runs Saved in each of those seasons while Outs Above Average has had him a bit closer to par. FanGraphs has given him between 1.5 and 2.4 WAR in each of those five campaigns.

Despite that track record of reliably decent production, his earning power won’t be huge. A late bloomer, he didn’t break out until his age-28 season. He’s now reaching free agency for the first time just after his 35th birthday. He’ll probably be limited to one-year offers, but a two-year pact isn’t totally out of the question.

Platoon/Bounceback Bats

Miguel Andujar (31)

Andujar just wrapped up a good season between the Athletics and Reds. He slashed .318/.352/.470 for a 125 wRC+. Most of that damage came against southpaws. The righty bat slashed .290/.331/.429 for a 108 wRC+ against righties but .389/.409/.578 and a 171 wRC+ against lefties. His 2024 production was even more lopsided, with a 192 wRC+ with the platoon advantage and 82 without. In addition to the outfield corners, he also played first and third base this year, so he should find a home somewhere as a lefty masher with some defensive versatility.

Michael Conforto (33)

Last winter, the Dodgers gave Conforto $17MM on a one-year deal, but it didn’t work out. He hit .199/.305/.333 and was left off the club’s playoff roster. The track record is still decent enough that he could find some club willing to take a bounceback flier. He oddly had reverse splits in 2025, but his career splits are traditional. The lefty swinger has a .249/.351/.460 line and 121 wRC+ against righties in his career and a .233/.318/.391 line and 98 wRC+ against southpaws.

Randal Grichuk (34)

Grichuk didn’t have a great campaign in 2025, hitting just .228/.273/.401. Even against lefties, he had a subpar .227/.273/.430 slash and 89 wRC+. However, he’s just one year removed from posting a .319/.386/.528 line and 152 wRC+ against southpaws. Even on the heels of that strong showing, he was only able to secure a $5MM guarantee to return to the Diamondbacks, so he should be even more affordable this time.

Austin Hays (30)

For his career, the righty-swinging Hays has a .282/.340/.479 line against lefties and .253/.301/.416 otherwise, leading to respective wRC+ tallies of 124 and 97. This year was even more extreme, with a .319/.400/.549 line and 155 wRC+ against southpaws and a .249/.286/.422 line and 88 wRC+ without the platoon advantage. Beyond the offense, Hays is considered a strong defender but has been fairly injury prone in the past two seasons.

Max Kepler (33)

Kepler signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Phillies last offseason. He thought he was going to be an everyday player, but the Phils mostly shielded him from lefties. He was only sent up to face a southpaw 76 times this year and didn’t fare well. He also didn’t hit righties, turning in a .216/.305/.399 line and 93 wRC+. However, his career numbers are better, with a .240/.324/.446 line and 107 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. He’s solid with the glove, but his rough season at the plate should give him less earning power compared to a year ago.

Starling Marte (37)

Marte had a good season at the plate, slashing .270/.335/.410 for a 112 wRC+, but mostly as a designated hitter. The Mets only put him out on the grass for 65 innings. Given his age and injury history, he probably can’t be counted on for much more than that going forward.

Rob Refsnyder (35)

Refsnyder is turning 35 in March but he just keeps hitting lefties. For his career, he has a .281/.383/.443 line and 129 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. In 2025, he was even better, putting up a .302/.399/.560 line and 159 wRC+ against southpaws. There was previously some suggestion he was flirting with retirement, but he plans to play in 2026.

Austin Slater (33)

Slater has generally been solid against lefties in his career, but his past two seasons have been rough. Overall, he hit .212/.299/.314 for a 77 wRC+ during the 2024 and 2025 seasons. That included some league-average production against southpaws in 2025, but injuries limited him to just 65 games on the year. His career .267/.357/.430 line and 119 wRC+ against lefties will get him some interest, but his recent struggles and injuries will tamp down his earning power.

Lane Thomas (30)

Thomas is coming off an injury-marred season. He only appeared in 39 games. He underwent surgery to address his plantar fasciitis in September, a procedure that comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. He’s not too far removed from a 28-homer season in 2023, but even at his best, he did most of his damage against lefties. He has a career .292/.359/.500 line and 135 wRC+ versus southpaws and a .220/.287/.383 line and 84 wRC+ when facing righties. In addition to his bat, he can steal bases and play a passable center field, but his health situation clouds his status somewhat.

Jesse Winker (32)

Winker’s a good hitter but his health comes and goes. He only played 61 games in 2023 due to back problems. He bounced back in 2024, showing enough that the Mets gave him $7.5MM on a one-year deal for 2025. However, oblique and back issues limited him to just 26 contests this past year. His track record enough to get him interest, but he’s never been a good defender and the injuries keep pushing him more firmly towards full-time designated hitter status.

Depth Types

Mark Canha (37)
Bryan De La Cruz (29)
Adam Frazier (34)
Jason Heyward (36)
Sam Hilliard (32)
Connor Joe (33)
Jarred Kelenic (26)
Tommy Pham (38)
Hunter Renfroe (34)
Chris Taylor (35)
Alex Verdugo (30)

Options/Opt-Outs

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (32)

Gurriel can opt out of his deal, walking away from the one year and $18MM guarantee he’s still owed. He won’t do it though. He suffered a torn right ACL in September. The surgery comes with a recovery timeline of nine to ten months, putting him out of action through at least the first half of 2026.

Ramón Laureano (31)

The Padres can retain Laureano for 2026 via a $6.5MM club option. That’s a bargain, considering he just hit .281/.342/.512 for a 138 wRC+ and was credited with three wins above replacement by FanGraphs. The Padres have ongoing financial issues but should pick up the option without much thought. Even if they don’t want to pay Laureano themselves, he’d have plenty of trade value (though it’s likely he’s their regular left fielder next year).

Tyler O’Neill (31)

O’Neill can opt out of his deal, walking away from the two years and $33MM he is still owed. But injuries limited him to 54 games and a dismal .199/.292/.392 showing in 2025, so it would be silly of him to trigger that opt-out.

Photo courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images

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Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

By Anthony Franco | at October 20, 2025 6:45pm CDT

We’ll start with a look at the position players, with a preview of the pitchers to come later in the week. While there may be some close calls on the pitching side, there shouldn’t be a ton of intrigue with the hitting decisions. Many of this year’s top free agent hitters are ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning there’ll probably only be four who receive it — each of whom would have a relatively easy decision to decline.

No-Doubters

Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
Kyle Tucker (Cubs)

There’s not much to say about this trio. They’ll all receive and reject a QO. Tucker could seek a contract north of $400MM, while Bichette should aim for $200MM+ despite a late-season knee sprain. Schwarber’s age and lack of defensive value will keep him below $200MM, but he’s going to easily beat $22MM per season on what should at least be a four-year contract.

Likely Recipient

Trent Grisham (Yankees)

Grisham is a safe bet to receive the qualifying offer as well, though that’s perhaps more of a 90-95% likelihood than the absolute locks of the top tier. It should be an easy call for him to decline on the heels of a 34-homer breakout that is supported by impressive batted ball metrics. Even with a dip in his typically strong defensive grades, Grisham has a shot at a four- of five-year deal going into his age-29 season. He’s the top center fielder in the class.

The only argument against the Yankees issuing the QO is that they’d receive the lowest compensation as a luxury tax payor: a pick after the fourth round. If they feel there’s even a 10% chance of Grisham accepting, maybe they’d rather not risk committing $22MM and an accompanying $24MM in luxury taxes within the first two weeks of the offseason. Still, one imagines they’d happily take Grisham back on the off chance that he were willing to accept a one-year guarantee.

Long Shots

Jorge Polanco (Mariners)
Gleyber Torres (Tigers)

Polanco has had a huge second season in Seattle. He hit 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 slash across 524 regular season plate appearances. His .703 OPS in the postseason isn’t great overall, but he has drilled three more home runs (including two off Tarik Skubal in a Game 2 victory in the Division Series). It’s arguably the best offensive performance of his career after accounting for the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park. All that said, it’s difficult to see the Mariners offering $22MM to a 32-year-old whose defensive home is in question because of knee injuries. There’s a strong chance Polanco would accept, as his age and durability issues should cap him at a three-year deal even if he’s not attached to draft compensation.

Torres was on track to receive a qualifying offer after hitting .281/.387/.425 in an All-Star first half. He subsequently hit .223/.320/.339 and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. While the injury offers an explanation for the late-season drop in production, it’s likelier that Torres is who he is: an above-average but not great hitter who plays a mediocre second base. He finished his lone season in Detroit with a .256/.358/.387 line with 16 homers, similar numbers to those he posted (.257/.330/.378) during his walk year with the Yankees. That got him a $15MM free agent deal. It’s tough to see Detroit offering him an extra $7MM and potentially locking that money up by mid-November.

That’s essentially it for any hitters with an outside chance to receive a QO. The only other player who even received consideration in this tier is Luis Arraez. While he still has the game’s best contact skills and is a good bet to hit .300, there’s just not enough overall impact to justify a $22MM salary. Of the 32 first basemen who tallied 400+ plate appearances, Arraez ranked 19th in on-base percentage (.327) and 26th in slugging (.392).

Ineligible

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, Realmuto and Story (who seems unlikely to opt out anyway). Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bader, Naylor, O’Hearn and Suárez were all traded at the deadline. The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from Tampa Bay in September.

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Foster Griffin Looking To Return To MLB In Free Agency

By Mark Polishuk | at October 19, 2025 11:05pm CDT

Left-hander Foster Griffin‘s Major League resume consists of seven games and eight innings of 6.75 ERA ball with the Royals and Blue Jays during the 2020 and 2022 seasons. Looking for a change of scenery, Griffin signed with the Yomiuri Giants prior to the 2023 season, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the 30-year-old southpaw is now looking to return to North American baseball after three successful years in Japan.

While Griffin hadn’t shown much in his few cups of coffee in the majors, he posted a 2.10 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate over 51 1/3 relief innings with the Royals’ and Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliates in 2022. Griffin had started almost all of his pro games prior to the 2022 campaign, but the move to full-time bullpen work seemed to unlock something for Griffin after some inconsistent results as a starter.

Injuries also played a role in Griffin’s career. Griffin’s tore his UCL in his very first big league game in 2020, resulting in a Tommy John procedure and a long stint on the shelf. His good numbers in 2022 seemed to indicate that he’d covered well from his surgery, but his decision to head overseas may have been inspired by a desire to get another crack at starting.

The decision to bet on himself looks to have paid off. Griffin had a 2.57 ERA, 25.07% strikeout rate, and 5.52% walk rate across 315 2/3 innings and 54 games with the Giants. His debut year in 2023 was so impressive that the Giants inked him to a two-year extension, which is notable since foreign-born players in NPB are usually given just one-year deals. Griffin’s work helped the Giants reach the postseason in each of the last two NPB seasons.

FanSided’s Robert Murray mentioned back in July that MLB teams had taken notice of Griffin’s numbers in Japan, so with his contract with the Giants now completed, it isn’t surprising that Griffin is aiming to get back to the bigs. Merrill Kelly or Erick Fedde are among the recent example of pitchers who reinvented themselves in foreign leagues and returned to land multi-year free agent commitments, and the same could be true for Griffin despite his thin track record in the Show. Teams are forever looking to add starting pitching, and Griffin is an interesting lower-cost option for any club in need of rotation help.

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2025-26 MLB Free Agents Nippon Professional Baseball Foster Griffin

Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

By Mark Polishuk | at October 19, 2025 7:06pm CDT

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $22.025MM. An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft. Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks. The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — for the 2025 draft, five total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day.

These lower-spending teams usually don’t splurge on bigger-name free agents in general, yet last offseason saw the Diamondbacks sign Corbin Burnes, and the Athletics (!) sign Luis Severino. The Tigers also made a push to land Alex Bregman, and Detroit might feel more pressure about sealing the deal on a splashy move this winter since Tarik Skubal is only a year away from free agency. The Orioles or Reds could be candidates to spend a little more than usual, with Cincinnati trying to build on a playoff appearance and Baltimore trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025. Seattle could also explore qualified free agents, but the M’s are more likely to first focus on trying to re-sign one of their own guys in Josh Naylor, who isn’t eligible for a QO.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The rebuilding Cardinals and White Sox and won’t be spending big in free agency. The same is very likely true of the Nationals, whose own rebuild period is likely to be extended since new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni will need time to evaluate (and overhaul) the organization. Texas is planning to either stand pat on spending or reduce payroll.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have generally been more inclined to build their roster through trades or their own farm system rather than long-term free agent deals, but Atlanta could change tactics after a losing season in 2025. The Angels figure to be active in free agency, even if spending bigger on a qualified free agent might not necessarily be on the radar. San Francisco signed qualified free agent Willy Adames last winter, and are again expected to at least check in many of the major free agent names. There doesn’t appear to be much optimism that the Cubs will re-sign Kyle Tucker, but they could respond to a Tucker departure by making some other prominent signings.

Part of the equation for these clubs and the clubs in the next two categories could be what other picks they’re receiving this winter, to balance out their draft capital. For instance, if Tucker rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the Cubs would get a compensatory pick just before the start of the third round of the draft. While a lower selection than whatever Chicago’s second-highest pick would be, getting another draft pick back and then losing a pick to sign a qualified free agent somewhat makes it a wash for the Cubs.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Astros managed to sneak under the $241MM tax threshold. RosterResource has Houston slightly under the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Astros slightly over the line. Given this discrepancy and the narrow margins involved, we’ll keep the Astros in their own special grouping until the league issues the official Competitive Balance Tax numbers in December.

Since Houston were tax-payors in 2024, the Astros might have reset their CBT status if they were indeed able to stay under the $241MM line. Being a two-time payor means an escalating tax rate, and that tax bill would keep escalating if the Astros again finished over the $244MM threshold in 2026. Caveat: the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so the qualifying offer system or luxury tax system might very well be adjusted or even heavily changed in a new CBA, so a repeater-tax status might no longer be a concern to the Astros or other teams.

Staying under the 2025 tax line also means the Astros could be more willing to explore signing qualified free agents, though their tax-payor status last winter didn’t stop the team from signing Christian Walker.

As noted in the previous post, the Rangers could end up as tax-payors and the Red Sox may have ducked under the tax line, depending on the league’s final calculations. Boston seems the likelier of those two teams to sign a qualified free agent, as the Rangers are expected to reduce payroll this offseason.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft.

All seven of these clubs are clearly in win-now mode, so the higher penalties shouldn’t be much of an obstacle towards a pursuit of qualified free agents in most cases. (The Padres are the probable exception since they’re operating within a narrower payroll margin.) Since every team would prefer to keep their draft picks if they can help it, the tax payors might target non-qualified free agents who aren’t tied to draft compensation. For instance, while the Dodgers are expected to at least check in Tucker’s market, Los Angeles could consider any number of other free agents before aiming at the outfielder that will cost the most in both contract size and additional draft penalties.

Since re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent comes with no penalty, this could make some of these clubs more inclined to retain their own impending free agents rather than seek out new talent. The Phillies have been public with their desire to keep Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keeping tabs on Bo Bichette.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2026 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

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Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

By Mark Polishuk | at October 19, 2025 4:49pm CDT

The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $22.025MM) to eligible free agents. If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2025 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the one-year pact and forego free agency altogether to stick with his club.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive a draft pick if the free agent signs elsewhere. Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft. (For instance, the Orioles received both the 30th and 31st overall picks in the 2025 draft since qualified free agents Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander each signed for more than $50MM with their new teams.) If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick in the 2026 draft would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.

Looking at these teams’ members of the 2025-26 free agent class, the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen and the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff are the only likely-to-reasonable qualifying offer candidates. You could also make a case for the Tigers issuing Jack Flaherty a QO if he rejects his $20MM player option for 2026. Notable impending free agents like Seattle’s Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are examples of players who are ineligible for the QO because they only joined the Mariners partway through the season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For these teams, their compensatory 2026 draft pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether or not the player signed for at least $50MM). The Red Sox were a member of this group in 2024 because they weren’t tax-payors, and thus Boston received the 75th overall pick of the 2025 draft as compensation when Nick Pivetta rejected a qualifying offer and subsequently signed with the Padres.

The chief name to watch here is Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker, who will probably command the largest deal of any player in the 2025-26 free agent class. Chicago could also issue a QO to Shota Imanaga if he becomes a free agent, but that would first require the Cubs to decide on a series of club options and attached player options for Imanaga, so quite a few hoops have to be jumped through for Imanaga to actually hit the open market.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

It is usually pretty obvious which teams are well over or well under the luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025), and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of estimating the ebbs and flows of each team’s tax status over the course of a season or multiple seasons. The league’s accounting office naturally has the full set of salary data from each team, and thus we won’t know each club’s official status until MLB releases their information in December.

For now, we’ll keep Houston in its own little category because its tax status isn’t entirely clear. RosterResource has the Astros with an approximate tax number of $238.2MM that keeps them under the threshold, while Cot’s has Houston over the line with a $244MM tax number. If the Astros have indeed exceeded the tax line for a second straight year, they’ll face the increased “second-time payor” surcharge of 30% on every dollar spent over $241MM, which works out to $900K if Cot’s $244MM projection is accurate.

While the actual tax bill of $900K is negligible, the more sizeable impact for the Astros would be in regards to impending free agent Framber Valdez. The veteran southpaw will surely be issued a qualifying offer, so if he signs elsewhere, the Astros’ pick will sit before the start of the third round if it turns out that they stayed under the tax threshold. If their tax number is indeed more than $244MM, Houston joins the next category of teams.

Two other teams merit consideration for the “limbo” zone. Both Cot’s and RosterResource had Texas staying under the tax line, and both sites had the Red Sox over going the line, but those are unofficial estimates within a reasonable margin of error in either direction. Since those projections were all within $5.5MM of the CBT threshold, however, that’s enough of a margin of error that the league’s final calculations might tell a different story. Reporting from the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant and DLLS Sports’ Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline indicated that the Rangers exceeded the tax threshold.

The Rangers don’t have any free agents who should get consideration for a qualifying offer anyway. Merrill Kelly is ineligible after changing teams midseason, and no one else in their group of impending free agents warrants a salary in the $22MM range. Tyler Mahle might’ve been on that path, but he missed a few months midseason with a rotator cuff injury. Boston’s Lucas Giolito is a borderline QO case, plus his season-ending elbow issue may weigh into whatever decision the Red Sox make on the qualifying offer front.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax line, their compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2026 draft. As an example, the Braves were tax-payors in 2024, so they got the 136th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Max Fried rejected Atlanta’s qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.

As it turns out, many of the most obvious qualifying-offer candidates of this winter’s free agent class happen to come from tax-paying teams. The Phillies have Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suarez, the Padres have Dylan Cease and Michael King, the Blue Jays have Bo Bichette, the Mets have Edwin Diaz (who is likely to opt out of his deal to re-enter the market), and Trent Grisham‘s career year with the Yankees makes him a likely QO candidate.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

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Foster Griffin Looking To Return To MLB In Free Agency

Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent