After being largely overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he was posted for MLB clubs during the 2023-24 offseason, southpaw Shota Imanaga landed with the Cubs on a deal that has worked out well for Chicago so far. Imanaga was an All-Star and the fifth-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting during his first season, and this year he’s chipped in a strong 3.21 ERA across his 22 starts. Chicago is squarely focused on October at the moment, with their first postseason berth since 2020 all but clinched. Once the postseason comes to an end and the offseason jumps to front of mind, however, the Cubs will face a significant decision regarding Imanaga because of the unusual nature of his contract.
Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM. That’s not quite how the contract actually works in practice. After the 2025 season, the Cubs face a decision on whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option that covers the 2026-28 seasons. If Chicago declines, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for 2026. If that player option is executed, then there’s another fork in the road ahead. After 2026, the Cubs would have to decide on a two-year, $42MM club option for 2027-28. If they decline that, Imanaga can pick up a $15MM player option for 2027.
All of that is to say that the Cubs are facing a significant decision this offseason. If they don’t exercise their three-year option on Imanaga’s services, he’s all but certain to decline that player option and return to free agency. One-year rolls of the dice on older players like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton last offseason cost $15MM, so it’s all but guaranteed that Imanaga could do better than that if he were to test free agency. The question then becomes if Chicago wants to keep Imanaga in the fold for the next three seasons for that aforementioned $57MM figure.
On the surface, that might appear to be an obvious choice. Imanaga is an All-Star with a career 3.04 ERA in the majors and is a big part of the Cubs’ success this year. A look at Imanaga’s underlying numbers paints a slightly less certain picture, and that’s especially true for this season. A hamstring injury cost Imanaga nearly two months, so he is not qualified for the ERA title. That said, among 92 starters with at least 120 innings, the lefty’s 4.55 FIP is tied with teammate Colin Rea for 65th. His 4.57 xFIP ranks 73rd, and 4.43 SIERA ranks 61st.
With Imanaga ranking in the bottom third of the league among starters this year by so many metrics, it’s worth at least looking under the hood to see what’s causing that downturn in peripherals. Only 15 starters in baseball (again, min. 120 innings) have a higher opponents’ barrel rate than Imanaga, and that’s left him very susceptible to the long ball. Just 14 starters in that group have allowed more home runs, despite Imanaga’s relatively small volume of innings. His ERA would be much higher without the fourth-highest strand rate in that set of starters.
Imanaga also has a .209 BABIP that’s the lowest among that same group by nearly 20 points and 55 points lower than his own figure last season. He’s benefited from some pretty significant luck when it comes to batted balls and sequencing. Imanaga’s four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper have all lost a tick of velocity relative to last year. He now sits just 90.8 mph on average with the heater, and while velocity isn’t necessarily a requirement to find success in the majors, the decrease is somewhat concerning when looking at his 20.2% strikeout rate — down from 25.1% last season.
Are those red flags concerning enough that the Cubs should really consider letting him walk? While much of Imanaga’s success at beating his peripherals this year can be chalked up to good fortune, consideration must also be made for Chicago’s excellent defense. The Cubs figure to have both Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Dansby Swanson at shortstop well past the end of the 2028 season, and with elite defensive talents working behind Imanaga it’s feasible that he could continue beating those peripheral numbers.
Another consideration is the possibility that Imanaga’s underlying numbers could improve next season with a normal start to the season. Between the Cubs’ trip to Japan for a two-game set against the Dodgers and the lefty’s early hamstring ailment, Imanaga had an unusual start to 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 23.1% clip since since the All-Star break, and he actually punched out 26.2% of his opponents in August, so maybe that trend line could create some optimism.
Regardless of whether more strikeouts and stronger peripherals can be expected for Imanaga, there’s an argument that three years and $57MM is a solid value for even a middle-of-the-road starter on the current market. Talented arms with All-Star track records can make a pretty penny on an annual basis, even entering their age-32 seasons, as Imanaga will be next year.
As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray all secured $75MM over three years for contracts beginning at age 32 or later. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt landed $63MM guarantees over three-year terms heading into their age-34 seasons. The current $19MM AAV on the three years covered by that club option isn’t much larger than the $17.5MM AAV the Yankees paid a 33-year-old Marcus Stroman over two years and coming off a season with lesser results.
While Justin Steele will return from UCL surgery next year and Cade Horton has emerged as a long-term rotation piece, players like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are set to depart the Cubs rotation after 2026. Having another arm locked up for the long haul could have value for the Cubs so that they aren’t scrambling for innings going forward.
What do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should do about Imanaga’s contract option? Should they pick up that three years and $57MM for Imanaga’s age-32 through age-34 seasons, or should they bet that they can do better and give him the chance to walk? Have your say in the poll below:
Poll link, in case above is not working.
He’s worth the risk.
Yeah it’s not even expensive
No brainer pickup.
Amen.
It’s a no-brainer, poll should be 90/10 or less.
Not even really a risk. They are paying him like a 3 or 4 in today’s market. 92% yes votes.
cubs would be crazy not to pick up the 3yr option
as a FA today imanaga would get around 5yrs/120mil. maybe more
Anyone who would even question picking up this option either knows nothing about baseball, is a troll or is my neighbor’s pet cat.
Mr Sniffles thinks he knows baseball but he doesn’t know squat.
The Cubs will pick up the option. It’s more than reasonable.
The Best Pitcher In The World is still available for the post season run (and beyond) for leage minimum, for whoever has the common sense to sign him.
Wasn’t aware Skenes was available.
Players signed now would not be post season eligible.
Yea but he can still play in the AAA playoffs and give up BP homeruns.
TB is waiting for a comeback.
Bring back TB
Ah…so Yards of Camden is the one spreading tuberculosis all around the nation.
He should have got his vaccine like all the rest of us.
“TB is waiting”…Trevor, I thought we already talked about this? You hire me as your agent, to get you back in MLB and then you constantly undermine me with these ridiculous online posts that everyone knows are coming from you.
The disease TB?
The guy who washed out of the NPB and was the worst starting pitcher on Yokohama? Whose 4.34 ERA was around two full runs worse than either of his staffmates Anthony Kay and Andre Jackson, both of whom are MLB rejects? That “Best Pitcher In The World”? Lmaoooooo
Too far @Yards of Camden.. too far.
I am not an anti-stats guy, I see their value, but this is a perfect example of a whole swarm of stats blinding a person (in this example, the columnist) from an obvious conclusion right there in front of their eyes. *Of course* the Cubs should keep Imanaga. No question. Anyone who has watched him pitch all year sees his value on the mound, his value to the team, the effect of the intangibles when he’s on the mound. By all means, the Cubs should continue to add talent to their pitching staff, but not by subtracting existing talent like Imanaga.
The advanced stats we have, like xFIP, do a great job at what they’re designed for (predictive value that’s more accurate than ERA in general over a large population) but there will always be outliers. It’s not an anti-stats position to say this, in fact it’s acknowledging that the stats we have can only account for so much. Baseball has possibly thousands of at-present unaccounted-for little variables that allow some players to defy the broad, general trends. It’s worth discussing because the cases where individual players seemingly outperform the advanced stats are both interesting and useful when making refinements to the formulae at play.
Might Imanaga regress some? Sure. But unless the Cubs have empirical data specific to him that shows this to be likelier than his performance suggests, then yeah it is an absolute no-brainer.
He’s worth 57 mil with regression. 20 mil per for a 3/4 starter is market value for large markets
Well said..these writers and experts having been saying the same things every year since he joined the cubs..the advanced stats suggest he has been lucky..well then he is the luckiest guy ever cause he continue to defy those stats..or maybe some guys just know how to pitch despite not having a 100 mph fast ball or what not..no brainer if the guy gets it done you keep him simple as that
@meowmeow Totally agree there’s real value to be gained from stats. Some of them I really like, in fact, like those that add context to outs by differentiating between those outs that are weak easy grounders to an infielder and those that are hard line drives that the batter was just unlucky to be hitting right at someone- a way of differentiating between the quality of the at-bat vs the result of the at-bat. I think I prefer using the stats more for breaking down what’s happened than as a predictive tool for what might happen.
I feel like the writer expects the Cubs to pick it up, but it’s an interesting contract about a team with a strong fan base so its more interesting to talk about than most of the DFAs and call-up stories we get this time of year.
Intagibles mean next to nothing when it comes to pitching. You either get people out or you struggle.
You mean intangibles like holding runners on and fielding his position?
Those aren’t intangibles, though. They’re measurable.
.93 WHIP, would be tied with DeGrom for 2nd in the majors if Shota qualified, in 25’ and 1.02 WHIP last year. He’s elite at keeping runners off base. In a time when OBP is seen as the most important thing for hitters you’d think a SP denying base runners like Shota does would get more respect
Cubs would be dumb not to pickup the 3 year option.
Seven straight quality starts. It’s a no-brainer pickup.
If the Cubs do let him walk, I am curious if Pacific coast teams; SF, Seattle, and San Diego may hedge their bets. Shota’s proclivity to giving up fly balls could be stifled a bit in those environments. Especially for the assumed price tag.
Though, I am curious if the Cubs or whatever potential new landing spot may attempt to shift his approach to ground balls (statcast has him at 5th percentile). Easier said than done, but he has an abundant pitch mix. Without some sort of adjustment, that velo will begin playing less well as he approaches those mid to late 30’s years.
I think that the article has some good points about how the defense behind him is possibly helping him defy the peripheral numbers. Other teams know this too, so only teams that are very confident in their defense would be interested in
The fact that this is even an article is absurd.
It’s either a really, really, really slow day in the baseball world OR Nick said let me write something about the Cubs so people read this.
The Cubs pick up this option if it’s $70-75M (and probably more) let alone $57M.
I liked it ! I’m always curious about contract conditions !
Whiffa–let me correct myself—the article is perfectly fine—the poll is absurd. Agree with you on the contractual learning part.
Dumb article. They’ll pick it up
The contract comparables tell you all you need to know. If he hits the market he’s absolutely getting more than all those guys did, let alone 3/57.
I can’t see the poll.
Try clicking on this at the bottom of the article:
“Poll link, in case above is not working”
They are picking up the option this is a nondiscussion
Why ask this question? He’s been really good. Of course, you pick up that option.
“Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM.”
Hire. More. Editors.
He made 22.5M this year and last, and if the Cubs decline both team options while he picks up both player options at 15M, then he’ll walk away with 52.5M. This is assuming he only turns down the player option if he’s confident he can do even better in free agency.
Not even a question, Cubs resign him..
I understand the hesitation if the concern is whether or not the league has figured him out, but it’s such an inexpensive option that I would absolutely exercise it, test that in year 3, and hope for the best. Worst case, he’s an innings eater. The salary shouldn’t be prohibitive.
No brainer so they can’t possibly screw it up.
Yes they should – but also PCA and Swanson play defense behind other Cubs pitchers too – so it would have been useful to see a comparison here with other rotation members and if they are also beating the underlying numbers, especially those who played for other teams before the Cubs. That would be more instructive as to whether his run prevention relying in part on good defense is in fact sustainable.
Not picking up Shota’s option would be such a Jed thing to do.
I am not sure why people are still using ERA estimators like SIERA when we have xERA. Minimum 100 innings, his 3.81 xERA is 35th in MLB. So what is the going rate for a number 2/3 starter? Seems like he is comfortably in that Severino, Kikuchi, Pivetta salary range so the Cubs should pick up the option.
In statistics, it’s usually good to see things lining up and telling a similar story. Also, xERA is just xwOBA converted into an ERA. Some research has shown it’s no better at predicting pitcher performance than FIP.
Pick up his option and extend him. It’s a no-brainer. Something that Craig Counsell sometimes ( alot of times) doesn’t have a brain when it comes to the lineup. I’ve been saying that Craig has the brain of Lenny after George you know…..
Easy call for a team with the Cubs economic power, whether they regularly operate that way or not. The contract would have surplus value this off-season, so exercise it, and trade him, or keep him and hope his peripherals tick up. Worst case scenario it isn’t the kind of longterm contract that can derail the rest of their roster construction.
Who in their right mind says no to this?!?
I’m not really sure why this even warrants a post. Of course he’s worth it
I have made the following observations…
It’s still a free country.
Nobody is forcing anyone to suffer through another mlbtr article.
Finally, I can’t believe posters flexing their $30 a year power by complaining and boycotting subscriber content. Absolutely cannot believe repeat posts complaining about the article.
It’s hilarious to read a Cubs article….
So many already muted comment authors.
This isn’t even going to be a decision unless he gets hurt in the last month. Where are you going to get a 3 ERA pitcher who gives you 150-170 innings a year for $19M on the open market? Morton got $20M a year for similar performance, more Ks, but similar FIP.
$19m per is nothing for a LH starting pitcher. He’s solid, yeah he gives up the long ball but thankfully most are solo shots. Even average starting pitchers are getting $20m +. It’s a no brainer.
I like MLBTR.
But, dang this is a stupid article..smells of desperation….slow day or just Cubbie withdrawals? Better than another damn Bergman article I suppose….
Hey, Let’s take a poll?
……But if we do who will defend the border?