The Royals are running out of time. After starting the second half by losing two of three games to the Marlins, Kansas City is now 48-52, and 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card position. While the club's recent transactions indicate that they're not ready to wave the white flag just yet, it may be more likely that the Royals ultimately end up hedging by both buying and selling prior to the July 31st deadline.
Record: 48-52 (8.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
For other entries in this series, see this post.
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Hitting of any kind, outfield help, designated hitter, left-handed relief pitching
We know the Royals are still in buy mode because, well, they just bought someone. The club brought Adam Frazier (a member of Kansas City's 2024 team) back into the fold in an All-Star break trade that sent minor league infielder Cam Devanney to the Pirates. While Frazier only has an 85 wRC+ in 264 plate appearances this season, most of his struggles came in the first seven weeks. He has hit .306/.363/.405 over his last 125 plate appearances. Frazier hasn't been a consistent offensive force since the first half of the 2021 season, but as a left-handed hitter who can play second base and both corner outfield slots, he checks several boxes for a K.C. team needing help in all those categories.
If Frazier isn't the most eye-popping addition on paper, he should still boost an outfield mix that has nowhere to go but up. Kansas City has far and away the least productive outfield in baseball, combining for -3.1 bWAR this season. By comparison, the Rockies' outfielders are second-worst on the list with -1.8 bWAR. The Royals have already tried an in-season overhaul by releasing Hunter Renfroe, optioning MJ Melendez to Triple-A, and calling up top prospect Jac Caglianone less than a year after he was selected sixth overall in the 2024 draft. As much as the Royals have tried to shuffle the deck, nothing has worked. Kyle Isbel's strong center field glove is basically the only positive from the group.
Before landing Frazier, the Royals reportedly had talks with the Pirates about a more high-profile outfielder in Bryan Reynolds. That kind of big trade piece would help K.C. both now and in the future, as Reynolds is under contract through at least the 2030 season, though at the significant price of roughly $80MM remaining on his deal.
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I cannot read it, what ever shall I do to learn what my team should do? (Sorry, when you are old and raised Royal you just become familiar with losing and will handle whatever dumb moves come. – I’m not bitter, you’re bitter.)
Maikel Franco huh?
“They bought someone” Frazier is at best a complimentary piece. If the thought is maybe he can provide one extra win, and maybe that win gets them into the playoffs, well, I suppose it’s theoretically possible, but…
Mikenmn
He actually did provide another win but the bullpen blew it in the bottom of the ninth.
Hopefully he will come through again.
Good synopsis of the Royals situation. As much as I want the team to win and make the playoffs, I believe it more helpful at this point if they lose enough to show JJ and crew they should sell off tradeable assets only under contract for 2025 and reload for 2026/2027. Lugo and a bullpen arm to the Cubs for a package headlined by Owen Caissie is an example of something I’d find helpful.
Oh, and the Royals 3B is all star Maikel Garcia, not Maikel Franco.
If that’s gonna happen, And it might, It should happen in the next 3 days because they’re here. So much for Ole Jed’s theory that you can draft a SS and then move him anywhere or they should have kept Devanney. The kid has a future but not at SS for the Royals. That theory has pretty much been proven stupid by now,
KC is always a team that has to take a slightly less-obvious path to success. Pitching and defense are always going to be highly valued in Kaufmann stadium, but the hitting needs are different than much of the league – the 2014 Royals took the World Series to game 7 while ranking 30th in HRs at 17th in OPS. In 2015, they ranked 20th in HRs and 10th in OPS. Kaufmann stadium limits power and plays well when teams that put the ball in play. The 2014 – 2015 Royals ranked 4th & 5th in BA and were dead last in strikeouts, both seasons.
The 2025 team isn’t terrible. Obviously the starting pitching has been fantastic, albeit down their Ace. Depth has been 100% on their side. They’ve stopped worrying about velocity (which is what they did for several years) and have started focusing on innings. FInding guys who can throw for 7-8 innings a game. Chase the Maddox. Old school method for pitching. They’ve augmented that with a bullpen that can generally hold it’s own with 2 closers.
But where the team is really struggling – and what a winning Royals team can’t do – is fail to hit for high average. Right now, the 2025 team is batting .245, which ranks 19th in the league. That’s over .020 behind the winning teams of 2014-2015. That doesn’t sound like a lot – but a .265 average would be the top ranked team in 2025. Their batting average is hurting their OBP – which ranks 25th at .300. Again – it was .314-.322 in 2014-2015.
Everyone has been talking about the RISP issue – but if the team can’t hit, they can’t move the RISP. And that’s been the problem since day 1. The admin spent a lot of time over-focused on OBP, signing Jonathan India – and has spent a lot of energy over the last few years chasing SLG – Melendez, Renfroe, Canha, Velazquez, and now Caglianone. And the results have been underwhelming.
The solution is to shift gears away from power-hitting and worrying about OBP and start worrying about team batting average. If we look at BAs over the last 30 days, the following players are currently the weakest links:
Nick Loftin .218
John Rave .205
Jac Caglianone .104
Mark Canha .063
Drew Waters .053
No surprise here – every player spends time in the OF.
IMO – the Royals should be talking to Miami about a potential multi-piece deal involving some mix of Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Jac Caglianone and Blake Mitchell. Edwards and Stowers would slot in perfectly into KCs lineup. Meanwhile, Cags returns to Florida. Mitchell is blocked by Perez / Fermin and is one of 3 catchers among the Royals top 10 prospects – including local boy Carter Jensen.
Can’t argue with that. Clearly, you know the royals well, just by the info provided here. Good points, be nice if the front office thought this way.