Poll: Should The Marlins Still Trade Sandy Alcantara This Summer?

When we first polled MLBTR readers on the possibility of the Marlins trading Sandy Alcantara back in April, more than 87% of respondents said that Miami should try to trade Alcantara this year, before the trade deadline. There was certainly logic to that idea. After all, the Marlins were in a season where they had no hope of competing and Alcantara was widely expected to be the most sought-after player on the trade market. At the time, he had made three starts with a 4.70 ERA that appeared elevated, but he also had solid peripherals that suggested he was likely to be a surefire playoff starter for any team in need of rotation help.

Things have changed since then. Alcantara now sports a 7.01 ERA on the season as he’s struggled badly in his return from Tommy John surgery. His stretch of eight starts immediately following that poll saw him pitch to a shocking 10.09 ERA with a 16.1% strikeout rate, a 12.1% walk rate, and a FIP of 6.00. That stretch of brutal performances has evened out a bit since the calendar flipped to June, but even in six starts since then he’s posted a 4.89 ERA. That’s hardly an enticing figure for a team in need of a pitcher capable of fronting a playoff rotation, to say nothing of how concerning the season-long numbers are at this point.

Given Alcantara’s weak numbers, it’s easy to make the argument against parting ways with him at this point. His value is arguably at an all-time low, and the emergence of Edward Cabrera (3.33 ERA in 15 starts) this year means he isn’t even the Marlins’ best trade chip for the summer. Despite all of his struggles this year, Alcantara is still a former Cy Young award winner who is more than capable of turning things around. In fact, he’s already begun to show signs of improvement. While his last six starts have yielded that aforementioned unsightly 4.89 ERA, during that time his strikeout rate (18.2%) is trending in the right direction and his walk rate (4.1%) is actually better than ever. It’s not at all hard to imagine a strong second half putting the Marlins in position to get more for Alcantara this winter even in spite of the fact that he would be available for one less pennant race if traded after the season.

On the other hand, the possibility that Alcantara does not turn things around must be considered. It’s easy to forget in the glow of his dominant Cy Young season in 2022, but the right-hander’s 2023 was actually rather pedestrian as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.03 FIP. That’s certainly a useful pitcher, but hardly the sort of ace a World Series contender would feel confident starting Game 1 of a playoff series with. The farther Alcantara’s peak in 2022 fades from memory, the lower his value will go and the harder it will be to convince interested teams that they’re buying low on an ace-caliber arm, unless he’s able to recapture that form.

Additionally, the market conditions this summer are very seller-friendly. There are only a handful of clubs certain to sell, and even fewer who both have and are willing to part with quality, controllable pieces. That gives the Marlins a great deal of power on the trade market, as they hold two of the best controllable arms who are expected to be available in Cabrera and Alcantara. With so many contenders in need of starting pitching and limited options available, it’s at least conceivable that a desperate team would be willing to take the risk of paying something close to full value for Alcantara’s services despite his brutal performance this year. The risk in waiting to deal a talented player whose production has taken a nosedive can be seen with the White Sox, who have frequently declined to trade Luis Robert Jr. in recent years amid hopes that he would put up a healthy, dominant season to raise his value. That hasn’t happened and now the Sox might not be able to get anything of note in return.

How should the Marlins handle the Alcantara question this summer? Should they trade him for what they can get this summer, or hold him to see if he can bounce back? Have your say in the poll below: