Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Raleigh goes for 50:
Yesterday, star catcher and AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh enjoyed a multi-homer game where he crushed his 48th and 49th homers of the season. That pair of dingers saw him tie and then claim sole possession of the record for most home runs hit by a catcher in a single season, eclipsing the efforts of Salvador Perez back in 2021. With that record now claimed, the wait begins for Raleigh to establish himself as the first 50-homer catcher in MLB history. Seattle’s superstar is slashing .247/.353/.593 with a wRC+ of 160 so far this year, and his 7.3 fWAR leaves him tied with reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge for the MLB lead. Raleigh will look to reach the 50 homer plateau—and continue strengthening his MVP case—against the Padres and left-hander JP Sears this evening. The switch-hitting Raleigh has excelled from both sides of the plate in 2025 but has been better when swinging right-handed, with a .281/.337/.693 slash and 19 big flies in just 166 plate appearances.
2. Winn to undergo MRI:
Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his knee today, as relayed by MLB.com’s John Denton. Denton adds that Winn already underwent an MRI on that same knee back in July that showed “a little something,” but that Winn nonetheless hopes to play through what’s ailing him this season and save the possibility of an arthroscopic procedure on his knee for the offseason. The Cardinals are more or less buried in the NL Wild Card race at this point, and Winn has hit just .200/.259/.320 in August while playing through this knee issue. Despite that lackluster offense, Winn has remained one of the sport’s very best defenders at shortstop and could well be a finalist for an NL Gold Glove Award at the position if he can push through to the end of the season without heading to the injured list.
3. Series Preview: Phillies @ Mets
The Mets have fallen seven games back of the Phillies in the standings with just over a month left to play, which will make capturing the NL East title a tall order. Virtually any path to a division title runs through this coming series, when the Phillies will head to Queens for a three-game set. Cristopher Sanchez (2.46 ERA) will be on the mound for Philadelphia in tonight’s series opener, while the Mets will counter with Kodai Senga (2.58 ERA). That pitchers’ duel will be followed by a pair of lefties Tuesday, with Sean Manaea (5.15 ERA in eight appearances) on the bump for New York opposite Jesus Luzardo (4.10 ERA). The series will wrap with veteran righty Taijuan Walker (3.44 ERA) on the mound for Philadelphia against Mets rookie Nolan McLean, who has allowed just two runs over 12 1/3 innings pitched in his first two MLB starts (1.46 ERA).
Judge is having a fantastic year, but the Big Dumper is having a historic season, especially for a catcher. I’d give the MVP to Cal, he’s just having an incredible season.
And he’s played in 128 out of 131 games. Judge can’t win it if he continues to DH unfortunately.
Nah Judge will only lose it if he continues to hit at a sub 900 ops. If he has a September resembling any of his pre-all star months field or not he will win it
No he won’t, but it doesn’t really matter.
Nick you ma be correct but if Cal keeps doing what he is doing he should win. Playing RF is a breeze compared to catching. The toll on the body the work with pitchers etc. He is excelling in all aspects Judge is having a great year but they moved him from CF to RF to take stress off his body. Does anyone even think playing OF is even remotely close to catching? Judge has the upper hand because he plays in NY. If Cal were there he would be odds on favorite.
#compassrose
While Raleigh ties in fWAR and trails in bWAR, the story line will be him breaking the HR record for catchers and single-handedly catapulting the Mariners to a post-season berth (maybe?). He’s been available virtually every game. Voting writers do consider the narrative when it’s a close decision and the M’s don’t have a bunch of stars like the Yankees do. I certainly wouldn’t place a bet on Judge winning the MVP right now.
“single-handedly catapulting the Mariners to a post-season berth”
Anyone who believes this should be stripped immediately of their voting rights
Nick – I guarantee if Judge gets owned again by the Red Sox in 2 weeks there will be voters who put it against him.
.231 BA and .286 OBP
3 Walks and 19 K’s in 42 PA’s
He has absolutely choked when it mattered the most.
Raleigh has definitely had a historic year for his position and maybe has had the greatest year ever for a catcher
But the media will still vote judge as MVP even if he has a worse year than 2024
A mariner as MVP??? That will make east coast fans angry
But who cares what fans think? Raleigh has better numbers and the two teams have similar records, so he’s more deserving.
“But the media will still vote judge as MVP even if he has a worse year than 2024”
Judge’s numbers from last year have NOTHING to do with this year’s MVP race
A 7.3 Bwar and a 5.7 Fwar are significantly different. Makes you wonder if war is a reliable stat at all.
bWAR and fWAR are different stats that use the same notion of “wins above replacement” to convey their information. They are not supposed to always line up, as they use different underlying stats to calculate their values. Broadly speaking, bWAR uses stats that correlate more with the actual outcomes that transpired, and fWAR uses stats that correlate more to what we would expect to happen over larger samples/with the removal of luck elements (e.g. FIP). When the values differ significantly, it could suggest something about the sustainability of the player’s performance.
Both of these versions of WAR (and there are more) are doing what they’re supposed to be doing: giving you a solid entry point for player comparison and player analysis.
No it says something about the math being used to manipulate data to get a desired result. Imagine the food industry having complete different outcomes when telling us if something is safe. It would no longer be reliable and a standard would be set to ensure accuracy.
Oh, okay, you’re being stupid on purpose.
I don’t think that is accurate.
And you’re being stupid not on purpose. Good argument. I love how sabermetric people always call people stupid to defend their math without actually giving a valid reason.
Mets- just give up while you still can. No one is on your side here.
No need to imagine it. They already do. So do opinion polls. So do the drug companies. So did the tobacco industry for as long as they could get away with it. Heck, so did our education system.
That said, you’re correct in suggesting that neither a definitive, conclusive metric (even if its creators present it as such). But I don’t think anyone is trying to use math to manipulate baseball players. It is simply two different methodologies. These methodologies are based on different metrics, stemming from different beliefs on what is and isn’t important.
But its no different than different DRS and OAA yielding different results about a player’s defense. Believe as much or as little of either as you wish. If you’re annoyed that the industry has gaslighted the public into believing that WAR is the ultimate, definitive metric, then you’re right to be. But that is how the world works.
“..red is grey, and yellow white.
But we decide which is right
and which is an illusion.”
As a fan of the game for over sixty years (and a player for over 40), my enjoyment and time spent on it have little to do with arguments and discussions surrounding bWAR / fWAR and so on. Oh, I can read the metrics and understand them and I appreciate the real value that is added when it comes to player analysis for those that need to do a deeper dive on talent. However, as I am not out there scouting for a team the metrics add little to my enjoyment of the game itself.
Watching the games; paying attention to fundamentals and approaches and mechanics – in essence, the old school scouting skills does add to the enjoyment. And frankly I rarely see anyone on here that seems to have much of a grasp of any of that, as everything now devolves into saberdude fencing matches. I would posit that many seem to find most of their gratification from statwars and fantasy league research rather than the game itself.
I see a cloud wandering by – time for me to go shake my fist.
three million upvotes for the sentiment. its a balance, and knowing when analytics are helpful and when to shut up if you havent seen him play are skills.
Well said, Carver. I like stats but watching games is like watching a movie for me. I don’t want to breakdown plot holes or characters development. Let’s enjoy the acting, direction, and cinematography. Dissecting it down is what reading movie reviews are for.
BleacherCreature (et al): I’m not sure why we have this set up as a “one vs. the other” situation. I love watching baseball games. If I didn’t I wouldn’t have the dedication to follow the sport. Each game you watch is one random sample is a gigantic possibility space, so you get to see wild and unexpected things. You see great physical performances. And yes, the “eye test” can give you glimpses into the unquantifiable (or at least the yet-to-be-quantified). I think teams/coaches/trainers etc that have better intuition for those things can make some of the biggest differences in today’s game, because the space between what we have quantified is where a lot of wins can be found. Baseball games are dynamic and exciting: that’s what got me into the sport at a kid and what continues to fuel my fandom today.
I also think it’s very interesting (and personally quite fun!) to take a look at the overwhelming amount of data we have and the advanced statistics they bear out. WAR is not supposed to be a “one number to rule them all on who is best” stat, it’s a tool for analysis. Using the tools available to guess at who will have top performances then contrasting that with how things actually play out is an interesting exercise that, for me and many others, adds just another layer to the sport I already enjoy.
I can enjoy the acting, direction, and cinematography when watching a film, and then enjoy reading a critical review and an analysis of the film’s themes after. We don’t need to choose one way of looking at a thing.
Carver, I agree. I’m an actuary and played baseball into my early forties against high school and college players. I have been to spring training and I have been to the MIT Sports Analytics Conference. I went to college with one of the best scouts in the business, he’s in their hall of fame. It’s childish to argue based on stats but we love to do it. It keeps us busy until the next game.
My single biggest problem with baseball is how pitcher unfriendly is has always been. Fans don’t want 1-0 games, they want 10-9 games. Why?
MLB effectively endorsed PED use and still scratches their head at why the consequences of that brilliant move are annihilating pitchers’ careers.
We demand our players pack all sorts of unnecessary weight and then wonder why so many injuries. It’s not rocket science.
MLB carefully crafted a professional wrestling model to make more money and they wonder why people aren’t attracted to the game.
So they endorse gambling. Brilliant.
They use all their efforts to fix something that was not broken once we allowed everyone to play and before we created a system that benefits certain teams over others regardless of their front office acumen.
Just buy it already.
Sad.
As Bill James once wrote, baseball attendance has historically been higher during the peak offensive eras of the game.
For me, the appeal of baseball at this point is purely in the numbers. I play in several fantasy leagues, and if it weren’t for that I most likely wouldn’t even keep up with it anymore. I love watching the prospects come up each year and seeing how their careers play out. I really dislike the NFL at this stage, and fantasy is absolutely the only reason I pay any attention to it at all.
For hitters, the big difference between BBRef and FG is evaluation of defensive contributions. Your comment about “actual outcomes” vs. “expectations”, while relevant for how the two systems evaluate pitchers, is not really germane to their methods for hitter evaluation.
Saberist: fair point. I had the impression that UZR vs. DRS had a similar “actuals vs. ideal” distinction but it sort of seams like DRS is just better?
Thanks Meow you gave an excellent overview (even tho Mets Soto is an idiot). I prefer fWAR for the reasons you mention – the sustainability aspect.
Not if you take the time to understand what goes into each and the differences in how they’re calculated. Plus, in this instance, both still consider him elite, there’s just a minor disagreement about how elite. It’s not like it’s a 1.6 point dispute with one outlet calling him a negative war player.
I understand completely the differences. One uses stats and the other uses fantasy stats. A 2 WAR difference at this level is dramatic. It’s the difference of Ken Griffey Jr to Manny Machado.
That explanation is dismissive of reality and suggests a bias against the stat. You also can’t analyze fWAR and bWAR in such a way to make that direct comparison.
No, it’s not based on fantasy stats. It’s based on events taking place on the field, and what results would normally occur given those events.
Hank – Nobody who really understands the game would ever value WAR that much, in large part because it’s context-neutral.
Sorry but anybody who doesn’t realize a hit off Mariano Rivera with the bases loaded is not equivalent to a hit off a position player with the bases empty is an idiot.
And anybody who doesn’t realize a walkoff homerun in the 9th inning against Chapman is not equivalent to a 4th inning homerun off Buehler in an early blowout is a moron. There’s just no other way of putting it.
Context GREATLY matters. Pitchers are not robots, they don’t pitch the exact same way in high leverage situations as they do in low leverage situations. This is really basic baseball crap here, people.
FPG,
WPA considers game context pretty well.
I understand the game and value WAR. The two things don’t have to be mutually exclusive.
gbs – No worries, I wasn’t referring to you :O)
It’s those who follow baseball only through formulas without actually watching or understanding the games and then try to portray themselves as baseball experts while shouting down others that can become irritating.
WAR has value but is an extremely flawed estimate, and of course is not a statistic.
FPG- That’s why most people who like war make sure to point out that it’s not a tell-all stat; it provides info just like any other stat. It can be valued because a solo HR in the 4th inning is worth the same number of runs as a solo HR in the 9th inning, just like a hit in the 4th inning and a hit in the 9th inning contribute the same to a player’s batting average. Obviously context matters, as you pointed out, which is why other stats and the eye test maintain value, too. It’s how you use it. No single stat tells us the true value of a player on its own.
METS
“Makes you wonder if war is a reliable stat at all.”
No, it doesn’t.
Because
1) this is basically a disagreement about defense
2) you, well, probably not YOU because you likely lack the math skills, but a person who had those math skills could run a correlation between WAR wins and actual wins and see a very strong correlation every single year.
Like this
beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlat…
LOL, I have an accounting and business degree and my math skills are in the top 90% of people. I love how all your arguments are just to try to belittle people instead of actually defending something in the merits.
Accounting has basically nothing to do with statistics/correlations.
But, I provided the link. What are your informed comments on that information in regards to WAR being a reliable metric?
“my math skills are in the top 90% of people. ”
How do you know this? Use math to explain it, if you need.
In fact, post anything that might imply you have anything better than a high school level understanding of math.
Mets Era,
Please tell us which stats you rely on to evaluate player performance.
I guess you’re trying to say that your math skills are in the top 10%. Or that they are on the 90th percentile.
But someone with such great math skills would know that.
Do you listen to yourself? Tell me what makes you have a higher than elementary school education besides trying to be condescending in all your remarks. But to play along I scored a 711 on math portion of my SAT and got a 91 Asvab score when I joined the marines. I have two degrees and took many advanced math classes in college.
All of them that don’t have a plus added on to it that are calculated on actual concrete performance and math and more importantly watching actual games.
And if they weren’t important and useful then the teams themselves wouldn’t use them and develop their own similar metrics. Whether or not you like them is irrelevant.
The + helps normalize performance for era and stadium. Even the “actual concrete performance” is only an estimate because opponents (pitcher and defense) and luck are factors in anyone’s performance.
The WAR system is what it is.
A walk equals a hit in these systems right?
Except not in reality. The hit brings a runner home from second or advances the runner to third.
WAR is inherently flawed. It makes Juan Soto look better than he is. Walks get lots of value in WAR and OPS.
It’s interesting to look at Raleigh and Judge, because as the article says, fWAR has them tied. Judge has a 194 wRC+ and Raleigh has a 160 wRC+, so obviously Fangraphs thinks much more highly of Cal’s defense.
On the other hand, Baseball Reference has Judge with a 6.8 bWAR to Raleigh’s 5.7. BR has Judge’s DRS at +3 to Raleigh’s -2. BR obviously thinks less of the defense behind the plate.
Interestingly, both systems have Judge as the much better hitter (Baseball Reference shows Judge with an OPS+ of 203, to Cal’s 167)
So while we’re focused on Cal’s homers and overall offense, if he wins the MVP, it’ll actually be his defense that tips the scales (and his defense is only half of what it was last season according to baseball savants OAA (6 this year versus 15 last season)
Don’t discount “voter fatigue” from Judge winning 2 of the last 3 MVPs. Seems a bit silly to say, but if it comes down to a very close race it could be the tiebreaker for some voters.
True.
It’s also fatigue combined with the novelty of what Cal is doing. It helps that he’s doing something that’s never been done. If Raleigh was just another outfielder on another team putting up similar numbers to Judge, it might not be enough.
Yeah, imo every home run Cal gets from here boosts his candidacy much more than it would at another position. “First 50+ HR catcher” doing a good all around job besides I think makes him the favorite, even if Judge could be said to be technically better.
Agree with you,it makes you forget Raleigh is battling under 250 doesn’t have but 120 hits strikes out a lot. Historic numbers for a catcher on a team with 70 wins I agree.
Jackson,
Batting average tells us little about a hitter’s value. Just because people started using the wrong statistic 150 years ago doesn’t mean we should continue to do so.
Jackson can you do this comment again but without the unnecessary sarcasm?
Jackson Rubbit here with analysis from the 1950’s
Those numbers are bad in any era alongside MVP, most especially bad. Laughable almost half his hits are long balls. Dude is going to finish with 200 strikeouts.
Raleigh wouldn’t be in the big leagues in the 50’s 60′ 70’s or 80.’s the pitching was to good.
Exactly. BBRef and FG are essentially the same in their offense evaluations. And both see Judge as superior (BBRref RAA: 54 for Judge vs. 39 for Raleigh, FG Off: 55 for Judge vs. 38 for Raleigh).
The difference is in their defense evaluations. BBRef: -4 Judge vs. -1 Raleigh, FG -2 Judge vs. +13 Raleigh.
The Vedder Cup is on the line tonight!
I feel like the AL MVP race this year will be the first time in a long time that it’s based more on the eye test than anything else. Cal is a catcher who will hit 50+ home runs, maybe close to 60. Judge is having another ridiculous year, but in the last month, month and a half, his numbers have not been nearly as impressive. As Cal continues to hit, and Judge continues to slump, the MVP moves closer to Cal and further from Judge. Right now, it’s as close to 50/50 as it has been. If we stay on the path we’re on now, I think Cal ultimately wins it. But if Judge can get back to where he was, it will be his. It’ll be very exciting to see how this plays out in the next month or so!
Last season was the first time ever that a player who was principally a DH won an MVP award. Even without any defensive WAR, Ohtani was 2 WAR ahead of his nearest competitors (Chapman and Lindor, both excellent defensively). At this rate, Judge will play less than half of the Yankees’ games in the field. He won’t accumulate any additional defensive WAR and he’ll have to be substantially better than Raleigh offensively to prevail in the MVP race.
I think if you just look at the numbers, out of context, Judge’s are still a lot better. But when considering defense, games played, positions played, it becomes extremely close.
“when considering defense, games played, positions played, it becomes extremely close.”
You mean something like WAR?
Yes, but WAR isn’t perfect. It’s a good baseline. But for example, I think there’s almost no way Cal overtakes Judge in WAR unless Judge falls flat on his face or becomes injured and misses significant time for the rest of the season. But if Judge slumps and hits around .300, and Cal gets to 60 homers but has less WAR, there’s no way Cal doesn’t win the MVP, right?
I thought Don Baylor was a primary DH when he won it in 1979.
No, he was only DH for 65 games as it turns out.
I understand that Winn wants to play through the injury, but the Cardinals need to be very cautious. He’s a building block. They overused him last year and he wore down at the end of the season. There’s no real pressure to get him back on the field. Saggese can handle SS as long as need be. Just focus on getting healthy Masyn.
Most valuable in terms of what?
It should have been called Most Outstanding Player or something. Then we wouldn’t have had all these deserving MVPs on bad teams getting shafted over the years.
There is a Player of the Year award. That should go to the Highest WAR player. In this case, Judge. The MVP should go to the “Kirk Gibson” type, who most affected his team. I mention Gibson, because he had solid stats when he won MVP with the Dodgers, but nothing outlandish. His effect was in the dugout, where he cultivated a winning attitude. That used to be a major factor in who won. Now its become a fantasy league award.
Is cal juicing?
Highly doubt it. He’s just a big, strong guy who’s hit his stride. Plus, Dan Wilson has wisely used him at DH in numerous games so as not to burn him out behind the plate.
@low
Its a big jump to go from 30 hr to challenging judge’s all time record
Judge hit 39 HRs the year before he hit 62. Everyone has peaks and valleys. Except for maybe Ted Williams.
@low
Yeaaa but judge also hit 52 as a rookie
62 was not a stretch
I wish raleigh the best. Just askin if anyone else thinks he might have some help this yr. I mean he’s annihilating baseballs. Like never before. So ye very legit Q
Oh and also cal plays in #1 pitchers park
And nobody else comes close on his tm to his hr output
M’s traded for the nl hr leader eugenio. And He’s only hit 4 hr in the month he’s been on the tm. So its a bit curious…
@chandlerbing,
Any relation to Huanglongbing? Distant cousin, possibly?
AI says: despite historically dominating the U.S. orange juice market, Fla’s citrus production has declined dramatically due to disease and hurricanes. This has elevated Cal to the leading citrus-juice producing state.
Thank you! I was wondering when someone on this site would finally bring up citrus greening disease (also known as Huanglongbing (HLB)).
And it will only get worse. One of the largest orange producers in FL has already stopped replanting/replacing those tress that are too old to produce fruit, choosing to switch over to other crops. And Another has announced that they will do the same when this current generation stops producing.
Miss Chanandler Bong,
Do you have any evidence he’s juicing?
I don’t care if he is.
@hank
Not a tru fan of the gm
“Chandlerbing”, just because your Mets aren’t doing all that great doesn’t mean you can be negative and take out your anger towards the Mariners.
Winn wants the gold glove. He will win it but has to play 698 innings thru 138th game of season I just looked up. He has innings covered but will need to stay on roster 7 more games
I think you’re misinterpreting the rule. Everything I find says 698 innings through the team’s 138th game. He’s met all requirements now. It might allow Nick Allen to catch him on some of the accumulating fielding stats though.
I vote he go on the IL if he needs surgery. He has plenty of time to get a gold glove. I have no doubt he will get one.
Earlier in the year, when Judge was having arguably the best year of his career, I didn’t think Raleigh would catch him. If they end up this close in WAR and other notable stats, then historicity and narrative should be enough to get Raleigh the MVP. Judge is still having a fantastic season (as is Bobby Witt, though few people seem to be noticing), but having quite likely the best season ever by a C is hard to ignore.
Cal has hit nine of his 49 homers while at DH. That’s less than Salvi Perez, who hit 15 of his old record 48 as a DH. Cal’s 40 while at catcher are two behind Javy Lopez, one behind Todd Hundley for most HRs while at catcher (and tied with Roy Campanella and Mike Piazza). He’s got a month plus to break that record.
Just having the opportunity to play games as a DH arguably helps the catcher stay healthy and sharp at the plate over the course of the season, regardless of the actual position played during each HR. Should be an advantage versus catchers from the pre-DH era.
That said, Raleigh’s season has been amazing, all caveats aside.
Raleigh has 40 HR as a catcher. Nine as DH.
Impression is one big factor to be selected as MVP. Meaning, those who finish strong (Cal) have more chance over those who start strong (Judge).
I think this will be the deciding factor. People have short memories. I think if voting happened today, Cal would win based on this. If Judge has a great September, it can go the other way.