This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso alternatives for the Mets, why many assume the Tigers won't sign Tarik Skubal, whether the Nationals will try to make a leap forward in 2026, and more.
Steve asks:
How long will the Mets give Boras and Pete Alonso to decide if they want to re-sign before shifting their focus to other first basemen, whether it be through a trade or signing?
The Mets have to make a series of decisions:
- Do they want Alonso at all? The answer would have to be yes, even accounting for being locked into some poor defense in 2026 at either first base or right field, since Alonso and Juan Soto can't both DH. And perhaps Soto can improve his defense.
- If yes, what's the maximum term? Last winter, the Mets seemed to prefer three years, but there was probably an amount/opt-out combo where they would've done four years. If David Stearns tells Boras, "There is no scenario where the Mets sign Pete for four-plus years," then perhaps both parties can have an early answer as to whether the fit is viable.
- If Alonso and the Mets are both willing to do a three or four-year deal, where do opt-outs fit in? These are obviously not great for the team, because if Alonso's production tanks in the course of the deal, they're stuck with him.
On October 1st, I wrote that Alonso will be seeking at least five years, and therefore the Mets should just let him walk. I still feel that way, but if there are three or four-year scenarios, the Mets should at least entertain those early on.
On October 14th, I ran through the four different 30+ home run first basemen Stearns found in his seven-year tenure with the Brewers. But let's look at that differently and see where the Brewers ranked in first baseman WAR while Stearns was in charge:
- 2016: 10th
- 2017: 6th
- 2018: 7th
- 2019: 14th
- 2020: 14th
- 2021: 27th
- 2022: 18th
Now consider that with Alonso as the Mets' first baseman under Stearns, the team ranked 12th in 2024 and 7th this year.
The difference is that the Mets expect more certainty than the Brewers, because as Brewers GM Stearns was not given a budget that allowed for signing a $30MM-ish first baseman.
So while it's easy to say that Stearns should just go find the next Jesus Aguilar, he can't (or perhaps shouldn't) really run the risk of something like 2021, where the Brewers had some of the worst first base production in the game with Daniel Vogelbach, Keston Hiura, and Rowdy Tellez.
What are the Alonso alternatives?
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It’s not clear to me why the Yankees would attempt to sign Imai. They have big money tied up in three starters already, and have Gil and Schlittler there to round out the rotation. After that there are some live arms in the minors. If they spend real money it’ll be in the outfield where they have Judge and some kid that doesn’t seem to be able to play defense.
Yes. Adding a starter to help them get to Cole’s return makes sense, especially with Rodon maybe also missing a month to start the year, but it can’t be someone who will block those two. They need someone to hold down their spots, not replace them. It won’t be someone high end and expensive. A return of Ryan Yarbrough makes sense and internal options like Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz could break through.
The Lerners are particularly lame at communicating their intentions to the fanbase. As a Nats fan, I think that’s mostly because they themselves don’t really know. Mark Lerner doesn’t have the gravitas that his father had at guiding the decisions-by-committee approach of the family, despite his own love of baseball and being the current official Principal Owner. Their decision making has been evidentially drawn out or contradictory in the past.
At least moving on from the Rizzo regime and hiring Toboni seems like a step in the right direction. Hopefully they will follow up with making the investments necessary to really improve the organization’s scouting, evaluating and player development .
I don’t think the Mets want Alonso and they made that fairly clear last offseason with their lack of long-term commitment. Now, that gamble paid off for Pete, as his season was good enough to likely earn him another go at a long-term deal but this time not with NY. Who knows what the Mets will do but unless he just insists on coming back, I don’t see a fit. The team wasn’t good even with him.
I don’t think Pete will get the 5 or more years he covets. In the end, the Mets should offer another 3 year deal with player opt outs. If that gets turned down early I would pivot to signing Tucker. Have Tucker man the right field, Taylor in center (Mets record showed they can win with him in center), Soto left field, and trade Nimmo. Maybe convert Nimmo to first.
You think Soto will move to left field? I’m not sure why he’s in right field in the first place, it’s not like his arm is phenomenal.
I’m not saying it’s a bad idea
Soto got his money and should know his defense was atrocious last year. Moving to left field should be acceptable from his camp and should not be as hard as learning first base as suggested by others in past.
Nimmo might not get back much but pay down some salary to improve return. Maybe easier to use him at first when Alonso leaves. Might help with his foot issues from running less.
Nimmo is going nowhere, he has a full no trade clause. He’s also one of the leaders of the team and is a good teammate and locker room presence.
If Pete is insistent on five years or more I would immediately pivot to someone like Josh Naylor. He is younger, a better fielder, and will cost a lot less than Alonso. He’s also a lot more tradeable than Pete if someone like Ryan Clifford is knocking on the door in a year.
Soto should be a DH. He’s a liability in the OF. He’s paid 800 Million for his bat, not his glove.
How do you know he is a good locker room presence? Every time I see him run to first on a walk I imagine every teammate rolling their eyes and thinking how annoying and overpaid he is
Nolan arenado would play first in New York if push came to shove. And you’ll see Alonso in a rangers uniform if it comes down to someone giving him years and that is his superlative must.
BurnerK: Arenado? There’s no indication that he would accept a trade to the Mets or that Stearns et al would be interested.
I don’t see Arenado at first base for the Mets or anyone else. His game has almost completely cratered… the only thing he still does competently is play the hot corner. Moving him across the diamond would take away any minor value he still has.
He has vocalized before the willingness to move to first. You also have to consider the lineup for productivity. Goldschmidt seems to have bettered after leaving. The Mets do have a viable solution in the minors brewing they could use a bridge piece and a right hand contact hitter with legs.
Arenado? The Cardinals can’t even give him away. Why would anyone want him? He’s done.
There is a market for everyone depending on how much salary StL picks up. And imho, you are over-estimating his decline. I’m expecting an OPS+ between 95-102 with a good glove.