The Reds’ immediate exit from the playoffs makes it easy to forget the successes of the regular season. Cincinnati snapped a four-year postseason drought in manager Terry Francona’s first season. They won 83 games for just the second time since 2013. This team has something to build on heading into 2026, and now is the time to make a splash in free agency.
As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in Cincinnati’s Offseason Outlook for Front Office subscribers, improving the offense will be key this offseason. The club did not have the depth or high-end talent to compete with the best of the National League. Cincinnati could make smaller moves around the margins, as they’ve done in recent seasons, but why not take a bigger swing?
Financially, the team is in a decent spot. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Reds with an estimated payroll of around $94MM heading into next season. They were close to $120MM this past season, and have been above $130MM in each season from 2020 to 2022. The biggest current commitment for 2026 is the $13MM owed to Jeimer Candelario. While it stings to be shelling out that amount to a player no longer in the organization, Candelario is the only one on the books for eight figures right now, assuming the team declines Austin Hays’ $12MM mutual option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has Brady Singer projected to earn $11.9MM in arbitration, but the righty will likely be the only significant commitment coming from the arbitration process.
Cincinnati’s largest free agent contract by total value is a tie between Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas at $64MM over four years in 2020, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The club will have to go well beyond a $16MM average annual value to entice Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, but maybe combining the outlay on Castellanos and Moustakas would be enough to make an interesting offer.
Part of the reason for the offense being the offseason focus is that the pitching staff was excellent in 2025. Hunter Greene looked like an ace when healthy. Andrew Abbott delivered a breakout season. Singer and Nick Lodolo provided stable innings. Chase Burns posted electrifying strikeout numbers upon getting called up. Cincinnati ranked ninth in starting pitcher ERA. Only six other starting staffs had more strikeouts.
The success on the mound is made more impressive by Cincinnati’s home venue. Great American Ball Park ranks third in StatCast’s Park Factor metric. It’s the second-highest rated park for home runs. The strides made by the starting pitching unit make the shortcomings of the offense harder to swallow, especially given the favorable hitting environment.
Though they snuck into the playoffs after chasing down the Mets, the Reds finished third in the NL Central. They haven’t been better than third in the division since winning it in 2012. This might be the perfect time to buck that trend.
Pittsburgh and St. Louis are in rebuilding mode, making this a three-horse race heading into next season. Milwaukee and Chicago both won 90+ games in 2025, but could be facing significant losses. Kyle Tucker is a free agent. He would fit the bill as a significant splash for Cincinnati, though he’s likely out of their price range. The more likely impact is removing a key contributor from the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. Speaking of important losses, Milwaukee could be considering a Freddy Peralta trade. It would be a massive loss for a rotation without much proven depth and some health questions.
The Brewers and Cubs are still likely the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but the Reds can close the gap. Their finances make a big move possible, and their pitching staff deserves better support. Schwarber said it would be “cool” to suit up for his hometown team. The Reds might as well try to make that happen.
Schwarber and Alonso would be obvious answers for an owner worth a damn
Sure, shell out 40 million on Alonso, and with no one hitting behind him, another.217BA season with 200Ks, would be the result.
You already have a shortstop who’s only worried about himself, and praying he stays relevant until he reaches free agency. Bringing in a “all about the cash” mercenary, isn’t going to get it done. You’re within 250 miles of the team up north. Learn from them on how to build a competitive team.
ChasingTime
Sure, shell out 40 million on Alonso
================
LOL! Alonso is not getting $40M.
Nor will the Reds sign an expensive bat. Anyone worth paying will have other options and knows the money he takes is money the team can’t or won’t spend on others. Best thing for the Reds is Tito who barring injuries will hopefully motivate the young players to join together as a team.
If boras waits too long and all the teams fill their spots he might have to settle for another one year high AAV deal and going to cincy for 1 year wouldn’t be the worst but cincy paying him one year 35-40 million doesn’t seem likely.
As with all smaller market teams the biggest improvement needs to come internally. Marte, Cruz I’m blanking on the other younger kid they brought up who was a top 100 prospect all need to improve.
Probably more like 30M
I’ve never heard anything like that about Elly…
Elly and Steer bookending Alonso would benefit all three players. There is a solid core developing in Cincinnati, they just need one legitimate offensive threat
How is Elly only worried about himself? it is wild the stuff people make up out of thin air
He plays literally every game, I remember reading earlier this year about how his sister passed away suddenly and he flew out on his off day and didn’t take bereavement leave and missed no games. Have heard nothing except how humble and likable he is from teammates/coaches
If they can meet Schwarber’s market maybe that, plus the chance to play for Francona, is enough to lure him home. Outbidding the Mets and the rest of the market for Alonso doesn’t seem like a good use of Cincy’s limited resources.
I’m legitimately curious how much who the manager is actually has an impact on where a player signs
It’s almost everything for the reds. Small market, shotty history, and poor rep to get snubbed by free agents. Francona calls a lot of shots there ! He’s gonna have some pull !
Good points, whiffa. I can imagine it having less of an impact for certain teams but certain teams/markets could use the manager acting as a recruiter
I can see there being some sort of impact. Like any job if there was a job you were interested in and you found out that your direct supervisor was going to be someone you previously worked for and had a poor/bad experience working for would you still want the job, regardless of the pay?
Agree. They need a left handed power bat. Alonzo bats right handed. Having someone like schwarber in the middle of the order would make the younger ones better much like how the cubs young hitters were better when Tucker started the season healthy than they were toward the end of the season when Tucker was hurt.
As this mentions the reds have $94 million on the books for next year based on arbitration projections, contracts for Greene, Trevino and Candelario, and assuming they don’t pick up any options such as Barlow, Hays & Sutter. Sutter they will need to pick up as we have few left handed pen pitchers in the minor league level. We should non tender espinal & gibout and that still brings us to $92.5 million using a lot of league minimum guys like Phillips, Richardson and Maxwell in the pen. We would need to try to re sign our closer or one of his ilk for a one year $10 million deal bringing us up to $102 million.
On offense we sign andujar for a one year $4 million deal. I have seen projections on schwarber of 4 years in the $25 to $30 million a year range. If we can get him for the $25 million we should do it and bring the payroll up to around $130 million which would be about $15 million more than the past season coming of a post season run. If the Red Sox & Phillies get into a bidding war for schwarber and he goes for the $30 million a year then sign Josh Naylor for between $17 and $21 million a year for 3 years and if it’s the lower number pick up hays for his $12 million mutual option instead of andujar. Again right at $130 million.
Last option if the dodgers sign bregman they would be looking to trade Max Muncy who is owed $10 million next year and could be had for a lower tier prospect.
If the Red Sox & Phillies get into a bidding war for schwarber
===================
Very unlikely the Red Sox go after Schwarber.
Or the Phillies & Mets or any two or more teams that drive his price above $25 million a year for 4 years then go to plan B which is Josh Naylor.
My point is they need to spend about $15 million more on opening day payroll in 2026 than they had opening day 2025 if they want to advance in the post season. The biggest needs will be a closer or late inning relief help and a left handed power bat.
The $25 million a year for Schwarber is probably on the low side but within the range of projections I have seen. Can only DH and will have 4 bigger names/$’s offensive players in front of him excluding the Japanese player because he can only play DH. 1. Tucker, 2. Bregman, 3. Berlinger and 4. Alonzo. Naylor has less power but would still lengthen the lineup. Our third option of hoping the dodgers sign Bergman and getting Muncy, at age 35 Muncy hit 19 home runs for the dodger which should equate to 25 or more at GABP.
We need to hold on to the rotation for now but if we are out of it by July look to trade singer for prospects.
Where do you come up with this they need to spend 15 million more? If the reds trade for Anthony rendon and take on all his money they’ve up their payroll considerably and as all fans know spending equals winning so the reds will be improved by trading for rendon.
They probably better off adding cheaper bench platoon guys and letting Francona out manage the other team. Or they could attempt an old fashion baseball trade and trade singer for a bat. Or trade singer use prospects from that trade to trade for similar price bat. Seems like they are need of a left handed bat benintendi, Lowe are two that are likely available but wouldn’t add a ton of power. Powers expensive. Lowe might be their best bet didn’t realize he had 31 hr last year. Not sure position wise he’s a fit or not but he’s certainly going to be available and affordable for the reds price range in my opinion.
Cool story.
Spending doesn’t necessarily = winning but the right free agents will fill gaps that no trade will. Anybody can get hurt or underperform but that is the case whether we trade or sign someone. As a season ticket holder I feel like that if my ticket prices go up 10% to 15% year over year no reason payroll can’t. The issue is getting value. Spending alone won’t do it but wouldn’t want to not get what we need to keep the payroll the same.
We need a power left handed hitter. Schwarber will be available and if he goes for $25 million a year should be affordable. I have no problem trading singer and looking at possible trades the most logical for what we need and who has that to give up that might be interested in trade is the rays for Brandon Lowe. He bats left, hit 31 home runs last year and about the same salary, age, years of service as singer. Rays might want to shed salary altogether and non tender him in which case we would have to sign him. We could probably give the rays CES as well to sweeten the deal and not non tender lowe. With that trade our payroll stays the same I just feel barring injury Schwarber is worth more than $15 million than lowe if you value war at $7.5 million per. Schwarber could probably improve us 5 wins more than what we had last year as a left handed power bat and probably 3 over Lowe.
The other trade I have heard is Greene for Duran of the Red Sox which we should not do. As for singer he would bring back more in the value of prospects at the deadline if we are out of it than the value whatever position player we trade him for this offseason.
Trade singer and prospects for a power bat now
I don’t see either of them going there, not even the second tier of Suárez or Naylor. Reds need to trade for bat if anything.
I don’t see any of those 4 signing there either. May get lucky w Naylor. Reds should have secured him last deadline. Also agree, trade for a controllable bat. They line up well with Vegas for a trade !
I kind of hope the Reds sign at least 2-3 big names so some of their fans can quit whining and blaming LA and NY teams…
Whatever that’s supposed to mean…..sure, puddin.
Where are the Yankees today? Maybe you should spend more and not worry about the Reds.
I’m not a Yankee fan but I laugh whenever it’s inferred they don’t spend like when George was alive. In 1999, they led the majors with an $85m payroll. Such translates to $168m today. They spend so much more now but the issue is so do many other clubs. The Yankees used to get the best by throwing out dollars. Today, that club is the Dodgers!and if a player prefers the NE, the Mets, Phillies, et al. Are competition that didn’t exist 25 years ago. Add in the tax and weather advantages certain clubs have and with the money being what it is, it’s no longer a guarantee that the targets will sign.
Back then championships were much easier to buy than they are today. The Yankees, Marlins (believe it or not), Diamondbacks all bought championships. The Dodgers tried (remember they signed the first $100 million dollar contract), as did the Cardinals and Orioles. Now with so many teams it’s not about how much you spend, but what you spend it on that seems to make more of a difference
All of us that root for the top ten market teams should probably have a bit of compassion for the fans in the small market regions. The playing field is not even close to level.
Sure, there are some bad owners that need to do a lot more as well, or simply sell the team. But by and large you have markets that can basically spend enough to compete year in and year out if they are halfway intelligent about things, and you have markets that have to be so much smarter than the rest to have a shot at things when things go well.
its up to the owners to pay for a competent product
======================
LMK when Porsche starts selling their cars below cost. I’m interested. Snark aside, and yes some owners can spend more, but businesses are in business to make money.
You would do the same thing.
Reply to CarverAndrews:
I completely agree. The big market team owners make their money on their teams too, But they’re pool of income is so much more than the smaller markets, it allows them to look like they care to spend so much more, but really, they are just as greedy as the smaller market teams. I’d actually wager that the Dodger and Yankee ownerships take in more overall cash each season to keep than the other owners even with their payrolls what they are.
@bob
The Dodgers spend a larger percentage of their revenue than over 80% of teams in MLB.
Well said
@smartestinthetinycloset – Take a look at the available information that is very easy to track down. Market size; gross revenues; payrolls; tv contracts; operating expenditures; ownership information and so on. Comparing the Dodgers ability to spend to the Reds or Pirates or a bunch of other teams is plain silly.
There is no doubt that some small and mid-market owners abuse their situations and can spend more to put a better product on the field. But that has little to do with the gross inequities between the markets themselves.
Why don’t you own an MLB team, Smarts?
It can’t be because of wealth or revenue disparities, so, I guess the other guys were just smarter and wanted it more.
Every owner doesn’t have Steve Cohen money.
National Revenue is distributed evenly in football. Baseball’s financial landscape is completely different. Those teams can spend in the NFL.
BTW active roster dollars are pretty irrelevant.
If a player is on IR then that money is taken off the active roster figure. The 49ers have $55MM sitting on IR and the PUP list. Money spent on rosters is extremely close in football due to the financial structure. Biggest differentiator is typically how much dead cap a team has.
100% of national revenue is shared in the NFL. If you don’t think that’s significantly different we probably can’t have a conversation. Each NFL team received $372MM.
@walkoff – No one thinks that it is going to end up as a completely level playing field amongst the various markets, however the inequities are so vast that it is a serious concern to fans in every market outside of the top few.
The only thing that manages to keep things in check to a point is simply the nature of the game itself, and the fact that in baseball a short series narrows the odds of overt dominance from a $400M payroll team over that of a $175M team.
But if fans from large markets (and especially the NY and LA market teams) cannot recognize the imbalance, it is only their own fandom speaking rather than a more clear-eyed view of reality.
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
“In 2024 the NFL posted $13.8 billion in national revenue, which was shared equally among the 32 teams, with each receiving approximately $432.6 million. This national revenue is derived from league-wide deals for TV contracts, merchandise, and licensing”
They got more than I said. The salary cap in the NFL is $279MM and each team is receiving $432MM from the national revenue stream.
TV contracts are negotiated at the local level and widely vary in total dollars in baseball. TV deals are done at the national level in football and is the major source of revenue for that national pool. That’s split 100% evenly. You’re limited in what you can spend in the NFL and you’re generating enough revenue to cover it and keep on the lights from the national pool alone.
MLB has the best parity among the 4 majors sports and it’s not even close so
Based on what
Based on not being an imbecile and facts. Patriots, chiefs nfl warriors nba florida teams nhl. Baseball just had their first repeat winner since what year?
Aren’t the reds a small market team? If so then Alonzo and Schwarber will be out of their price range. Schwarber will get at least 25M over 5 yrs somewhere
Because they don’t have a lot of guaranteed contracts on their payroll right now. And they’ve gotten some big bats in the past.
$25? He would have gotten that without this year. He’s looking at $35 now
Reds can afford that. 4 years/140 mil. I don’t think Schwarber is leaving Phili thou
Francona knows Naylor; if the Mets are out of the picture (tho they’ll need someone to replace Alfonso) I see him as a likely fit for the Reds…
Naylor with Francona would big a major plus for Cincy
Mariners too
Mariners said he’s their top priority
Tito knowing Naylor is maybe why we didn’t acquire him at the last deadline. Or Arizona didn’t want to help a competitor for the last playoff spot.
Can’t imagine Schwarber giving the Reds the hometown discount nor Castellini paying him….
I like steer at first being that the reds obviously need reliable defense, and I’m not big on a full time dh unless it’s someone like Schwarber who they won’t sign. They should really be looking at some middle tier pitchers so they can trade someone for an adell or soderstrom type player
Hello
Schwarber could potentially play some left field too. He has in the past and is still stealing bases. Especially if they move Elly to CF
I’m not gonna get my hopes that high, not to mention the few whiffs the reds have made recently on free agent hitters
Please be wrong
Not sure where he calls home in the off-season, but didn’t Schwarber grow up around Cincinnati? And his Dad is a big deal in his life? I could see the Reds making a competitive pitch for their hometown hero.
He grew up 25 miles north of Cincinnati, but hasn’t called that home for a decade (though I think his 72 year old retired parents still live there). He now lives in the New Jersey suburbs of Philly.
Yes this. But there is also something to be said about being too close to home. It’s hard to say no to everything and everywhere you go. There you are.
Just get Philly to pay the Reds to take Castellanos.
This has honestly always seemed like one of the most likely solutions to me, too.
I also could see a Winker reunion on a minor league deal.
If you’re Winker, why would you want to play for the Reds again? Especially, if it’s just a minor league deal?
He hit well there plus with only playing a few games this year, he might only get that kind of offer.
Except this FO already said they didn’t believe in him. If it’s a minor league only offer, he’d more than likely choose elsewhere.
That’s his right, but probably all they would offer.
I think Naylor is a realistic target for the Reds. It’s probably between the Mariners and Reds for where he ends up signing a contract would be my guess.
Is he good at first or just a good hitter, and I wonder where they would play steer. I’m not crazy about displacing people to try and make the outfield better rather than just getting an outfielder. It’s working with Hayes and marte so far but that probably the exception not the rule.
Steer has been excellent defensively at 1B but he can move to LF or even 2B if necessary. Sal Stewart also needs a spot and is best suited to 1B.
I agree, I don’t think naylor has a place here.. barring some other trades
Reds have no DH. Naylor can have that spot and some respite for guys on field from time to time
A couple years ago the put so much into Elly, CES, Mclain, and Steer that I feel like they will ride with them for another year and hope that the former youngster can form a nucleus. Noveli looks like he might be a keeper, T.J. is solid. They need Mclain and Steer to step up and CES needs to stay healthy to make a run. They have a nice rotation (don’t trade Greene). If they can get one of those bat’s mentioned above to help protect the order watch out
CES is a lost cause. Def don’t count on him. Rest of that lot are ready for career years ! I think McLain will bounce back and compete but he’s def not on Stewart’s level. If it’s him or Stewart at 2nd, McLain turns into a buy low trade candidate
Never happen. These low to mid teams are a joke. Yes, they made the playoffs….even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.
Just a hunch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Schwarber would sign for 10 percent less to play for the Reds. 4 years, $100 million might get him there. Philly and Boston will have to go higher.
I genuinely wonder how many millions your off by. I don’t think there’s anyway he’s signing anything closer to 25 million a year.
they won’t do nothing, they got 1 pitcher in Green who has a big fastball and we saw him have no offspeed while throwing splitters middle middle and got lit up in the post season. no bullpen, and 1 bat won’t make a difference.
They could have Nicky 2-Buttons back for a bag of balls and a pair of batting gloves.
The Reds have zero elite hitters. Elly isn’t a top hitter yet, he’s still just a guy with enormous potential. The same is basically true about Steer, Noelvi, Stephenson, and McLain. If they want any perennial slice of the playoff picture they will need those players to step up *and* to add another lineup-anchor type who can serve as a foundational bat. Elly is as likely to breakout as he is to collapse like Oneil Cruz did this past year.
Tier 1
Elly
Marte
Tier 2
Steer
McLain and Stevenson aren’t in same convo as the them. I could see em both get traded
I don’t think Elly or Marte have the track record yet to be considered Tier 1 (depending on how you define that).
And that’s kind of my point. None of their hitters, from Elly all the way to Stephenson, are established and reliable lineup anchors. Offensively the team is a big question mark still.
Agree. Tier 1 out of this lot lol
Or trade for some lower cost power like Jo Adell. Maybe Taylor Ward.
Adell is from Louisville. No clue if he fell in love with LA but he’s a great option imo. Fills that OF need and could potentially sign an extension
Super nice guy, too.
Really like having him but we have 3 right fielders, no pitching, no CF, no 2B, and no 3B.
I saw someone suggest a singer for adell swap a while back, not sure if that would get it done but I’m intrigued.
I don’t think it’s enough. Adells ceiling has always been sky high and he tapped into that last season with some control left. Atleast 2 seasons. Singer has one. Reds can throw in McLain but those two still seem a little light. Prob take a Lowder or Stewart headliner
Jo Adell hit a bunch of HRS and cut down his K’s but he’s still K’ing 26% of the time, doesn’t walk, and won’t hit for a high average.
He’s not going to bring back Stewart or Lowder. I don’t know why the Angels would want Singer since they’re not any good and he’s a rental. I’m sure they’d want near major league ready or young ML’ers back since that’s their model.
Noelvi Marte plus some prospects? Marte could go back to 3B in Anaheim and has more control than Adell.
I have Marte higher than Stewart or Lowder. Marte could be the breakout guy reds been waiting for next season
Maybe lodolo but man if reds would ever transition him to closer he’s the second coming of Josh hader
Brent Rooker for reds pitching is a good fit.
Pass
No need for a big bat witb KBH in the lineup
He ironically won them a couple games right after the trade. Made a spectacular catch to end one game and think he walked off another in the same week. He’s got bounce back potential imo, but you do need more of a home run threat at 3rd
I like KBH on this team for his defensive value *if* they pick up a top hitter while also seeing some of their internal options progress.
Agreed. Be excellent at something (in his case defense) then have the GM build a team with different skill sets.
As a Reds fan for 50 years, all I can say is 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Reds should trade Abbott and Stevenson for soderstom
Then trade McLain and Lowder for Adell
Then make a big SP signing like king or Gallen.
Friedl cf
Marte rf
Cruz ss
Adell lf
Soderstrom c
Steer 1b
Stewart 2b
Hayes 3b
Greene
Burns
King/Gallen
Lodolo
Singer
Reds could use some high end bullpen help too. A guy reliable to get heart of lineup out
I’d argue against a big sp signing but the other stuff sounds ok, maybe swap Lowder for singer idk.
As an Indiana Hoosier fan, I would be on cloud nine if the Reds signed Schwarber.
But we all know how the Reds do things.
Realistically, I see Lux, Pagan, Martinez, Barlow all gone.
I also expect Stephenson to get the India treatment this off-season. Singer might be gone too. If they are lucky, they will get someone to help but most likely just prospects.
Look at who is getting paid and their moves are obvious.
They’ll wait until the market settles, bring in who’s left. They’ll top out around 100 million again.
Fans will complain, Phil will say where are you going to go?
Idol worshippers will say it’s the best off-season ever and they kept all their prospects. Fans will fill the stadium and the owner’s pockets despite all this. Rinse and repeat.
In two years, they’ll break this group up without any postseason success and start all over.
It’s how they do it.
The Reds absolutely need offense however it won’t come in Schwarber or Alonso. Cheap owners
Good ballpark for hitters, but not all hitters can find success even with a hitter friendly home ballpark. Really like the majority of the MLB ballparks in the Ohio River region.
I wonder what Cinci would want if the Red Sox called asking about Chase Burns.
They’d have taken Rafael Devers with Boston covering his contract. But now the Red Sox can spend that money on free agent pitching.
I believe he is playing for his job there. He likes it there and if he and Suarez he is the keeper being the younger of the two.
Probably the Phillies would eat most of Castellanos $$$ if you sent them back someone..anyone?