The Reds’ immediate exit from the playoffs makes it easy to forget the successes of the regular season. Cincinnati snapped a four-year postseason drought in manager Terry Francona’s first season. They won 83 games for just the second time since 2013. This team has something to build on heading into 2026, and now is the time to make a splash in free agency.
As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in Cincinnati’s Offseason Outlook for Front Office subscribers, improving the offense will be key this offseason. The club did not have the depth or high-end talent to compete with the best of the National League. Cincinnati could make smaller moves around the margins, as they’ve done in recent seasons, but why not take a bigger swing?
Financially, the team is in a decent spot. FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Reds with an estimated payroll of around $94MM heading into next season. They were close to $120MM this past season, and have been above $130MM in each season from 2020 to 2022. The biggest current commitment for 2026 is the $13MM owed to Jeimer Candelario. While it stings to be shelling out that amount to a player no longer in the organization, Candelario is the only one on the books for eight figures right now, assuming the team declines Austin Hays’ $12MM mutual option. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has Brady Singer projected to earn $11.9MM in arbitration, but the righty will likely be the only significant commitment coming from the arbitration process.
Cincinnati’s largest free agent contract by total value is a tie between Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas at $64MM over four years in 2020, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The club will have to go well beyond a $16MM average annual value to entice Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, but maybe combining the outlay on Castellanos and Moustakas would be enough to make an interesting offer.
Part of the reason for the offense being the offseason focus is that the pitching staff was excellent in 2025. Hunter Greene looked like an ace when healthy. Andrew Abbott delivered a breakout season. Singer and Nick Lodolo provided stable innings. Chase Burns posted electrifying strikeout numbers upon getting called up. Cincinnati ranked ninth in starting pitcher ERA. Only six other starting staffs had more strikeouts.
The success on the mound is made more impressive by Cincinnati’s home venue. Great American Ball Park ranks third in StatCast’s Park Factor metric. It’s the second-highest rated park for home runs. The strides made by the starting pitching unit make the shortcomings of the offense harder to swallow, especially given the favorable hitting environment.
Though they snuck into the playoffs after chasing down the Mets, the Reds finished third in the NL Central. They haven’t been better than third in the division since winning it in 2012. This might be the perfect time to buck that trend.
Pittsburgh and St. Louis are in rebuilding mode, making this a three-horse race heading into next season. Milwaukee and Chicago both won 90+ games in 2025, but could be facing significant losses. Kyle Tucker is a free agent. He would fit the bill as a significant splash for Cincinnati, though he’s likely out of their price range. The more likely impact is removing a key contributor from the middle of the Cubs’ lineup. Speaking of important losses, Milwaukee could be considering a Freddy Peralta trade. It would be a massive loss for a rotation without much proven depth and some health questions.
The Brewers and Cubs are still likely the favorites to win the NL Central next season, but the Reds can close the gap. Their finances make a big move possible, and their pitching staff deserves better support. Schwarber said it would be “cool” to suit up for his hometown team. The Reds might as well try to make that happen.
Schwarber and Alonso would be obvious answers for an owner worth a damn
Sure, shell out 40 million on Alonso, and with no one hitting behind him, another.217BA season with 200Ks, would be the result.
You already have a shortstop who’s only worried about himself, and praying he stays relevant until he reaches free agency. Bringing in a “all about the cash” mercenary, isn’t going to get it done. You’re within 250 miles of the team up north. Learn from them on how to build a competitive team.
ChasingTime
Sure, shell out 40 million on Alonso
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LOL! Alonso is not getting $40M.
Nor will the Reds sign an expensive bat. Anyone worth paying will have other options and knows the money he takes is money the team can’t or won’t spend on others. Best thing for the Reds is Tito who barring injuries will hopefully motivate the young players to join together as a team.
I’ve never heard anything like that about Elly…
Elly and Steer bookending Alonso would benefit all three players. There is a solid core developing in Cincinnati, they just need one legitimate offensive threat
How is Elly only worried about himself? it is wild the stuff people make up out of thin air
He plays literally every game, I remember reading earlier this year about how his sister passed away suddenly and he flew out on his off day and didn’t take bereavement leave and missed no games. Have heard nothing except how humble and likable he is from teammates/coaches
If they can meet Schwarber’s market maybe that, plus the chance to play for Francona, is enough to lure him home. Outbidding the Mets and the rest of the market for Alonso doesn’t seem like a good use of Cincy’s limited resources.
I’m legitimately curious how much who the manager is actually has an impact on where a player signs
I don’t see either of them going there, not even the second tier of Suárez or Naylor. Reds need to trade for bat if anything.
I kind of hope the Reds sign at least 2-3 big names so some of their fans can quit whining and blaming LA and NY teams…
Whatever that’s supposed to mean…..sure, puddin.
Where are the Yankees today? Maybe you should spend more and not worry about the Reds.
All of us that root for the top ten market teams should probably have a bit of compassion for the fans in the small market regions. The playing field is not even close to level.
Sure, there are some bad owners that need to do a lot more as well, or simply sell the team. But by and large you have markets that can basically spend enough to compete year in and year out if they are halfway intelligent about things, and you have markets that have to be so much smarter than the rest to have a shot at things when things go well.
As a small market team fan its up to the owners to pay for a competent product on the field and if they choose not to they should be forced to sell.
its up to the owners to pay for a competent product
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LMK when Porsche starts selling their cars below cost. I’m interested. Snark aside, and yes some owners can spend more, but businesses are in business to make money.
You would do the same thing.
Lol that’s where your mistake. Porsche can sell at that price because they are a premium product. The Pirates for example are putting out trash and still charging top dollar. You’re not going to pay for a Ford Fusion at Porsche Carrera price are you? But they’re both cars? These bottom teams CAN spend MORE money and still MAKE money. Isn’t that what business is about? Making money you said. They can still make plenty of money and compete – the Dodgers do it every year. If you don’t want to spend money don’t buy a sports franchise it’s simple.
@smartestinthetinycloset – Take a look at the available information that is very easy to track down. Market size; gross revenues; payrolls; tv contracts; operating expenditures; ownership information and so on. Comparing the Dodgers ability to spend to the Reds or Pirates or a bunch of other teams is plain silly.
There is no doubt that some small and mid-market owners abuse their situations and can spend more to put a better product on the field. But that has little to do with the gross inequities between the markets themselves.
Why don’t you own an MLB team, Smarts?
It can’t be because of wealth or revenue disparities, so, I guess the other guys were just smarter and wanted it more.
66 when did I say that to be an owner you could be just some random person without generational wealth? And yeah, every last MLB owner in their life has worked harder and wanted it more. I’m man enough to say that and not act otherwise. I’m cool with my salary, watching the same handful of teams dominate, and every so many years see someone new make a little run. I’m not the one complaining about league parity or lack thereof.
Every owner doesn’t have Steve Cohen money.
And I never claimed the small markets could spend what the Dodgers spend. I just said they can spend more and still make money, which is pretty much exactly what you pointed out as well. It all comes down to the need for a salary floor. Most of these markets are perfectly fine. Pittsburgh claims poor market yet the Steelers are top 10 in active 53 man payroll. The market is there yet an owner that cares isn’t. Same with Minnesota – I know they’re trying to sell MLB team – but top 5 in active NFL payroll bottom 5 MLB.
King, did I say every team needs to spend Steve Cohen money?
Reply to CarverAndrews:
I completely agree. The big market team owners make their money on their teams too, But they’re pool of income is so much more than the smaller markets, it allows them to look like they care to spend so much more, but really, they are just as greedy as the smaller market teams. I’d actually wager that the Dodger and Yankee ownerships take in more overall cash each season to keep than the other owners even with their payrolls what they are.
Well said
Aren’t the reds a small market team? If so then Alonzo and Schwarber will be out of their price range. Schwarber will get at least 25M over 5 yrs somewhere
Because they don’t have a lot of guaranteed contracts on their payroll right now. And they’ve gotten some big bats in the past.
Francona knows Naylor; if the Mets are out of the picture (tho they’ll need someone to replace Alfonso) I see him as a likely fit for the Reds…
Naylor with Francona would big a major plus for Cincy
Mariners too
Can’t imagine Schwarber giving the Reds the hometown discount nor Castellini paying him….
Reds are going to sign like Connor Joe and call it a day lol. They snuck in the playoffs this year that’s good enough for the next 3-4 years before fans start complaining again.
Please be wrong
I’m usually not but for your sake I hope I am.
I like steer at first being that the reds obviously need reliable defense, and I’m not big on a full time dh unless it’s someone like Schwarber who they won’t sign. They should really be looking at some middle tier pitchers so they can trade someone for an adell or soderstrom type player
Hello
Not sure where he calls home in the off-season, but didn’t Schwarber grow up around Cincinnati? And his Dad is a big deal in his life? I could see the Reds making a competitive pitch for their hometown hero.
Just get Philly to pay the Reds to take Castellanos.
I think Naylor is a realistic target for the Reds. It’s probably between the Mariners and Reds for where he ends up signing a contract would be my guess.
Is he good at first or just a good hitter, and I wonder where they would play steer. I’m not crazy about displacing people to try and make the outfield better rather than just getting an outfielder. It’s working with Hayes and marte so far but that probably the exception not the rule.
Steer has been excellent defensively at 1B but he can move to LF or even 2B if necessary. Sal Stewart also needs a spot and is best suited to 1B.
I agree, I don’t think naylor has a place here.. barring some other trades
A couple years ago the put so much into Elly, CES, Mclain, and Steer that I feel like they will ride with them for another year and hope that the former youngster can form a nucleus. Noveli looks like he might be a keeper, T.J. is solid. They need Mclain and Steer to step up and CES needs to stay healthy to make a run. They have a nice rotation (don’t trade Greene). If they can get one of those bat’s mentioned above to help protect the order watch out
Never happen. These low to mid teams are a joke. Yes, they made the playoffs….even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.