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Mets, Devin Williams Agree To Three-Year Deal

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The Mets are in agreement with free agent closer Devin Williams on a three-year contract, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. It guarantees more than $50MM, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests the deal pays $15MM salaries plus a $6MM signing bonus that includes $5MM in annual deferrals. That makes it a $51MM guarantee for the Klutch Sports client, though the $15MM in total deferrals reduce the net present value to an extent.

A second-round pick by the Brewers in 2013, Williams took a while to climb through the minor leagues as a starting pitcher. He took off after being moved to the bullpen in 2019, climbing from Double-A to the big leagues by the end of that season. Williams emerged as one of the sport’s best late-game weapons by his first full big league season. He turned in a 0.33 ERA across 27 innings during the shortened 2020 schedule and claimed the National League Rookie and Reliever of the Year Awards.

The righty continued to dominate over the next few seasons, forming a lethal back-end bullpen duo with Josh Hader. New York president of baseball operations David Stearns had a front row seat as Milwaukee’s front office leader for most of that tenure. Williams stepped into the ninth inning when Milwaukee sent Hader to San Diego at the 2022 deadline. He reeled off 36 saves in 40 tries with a 1.53 ERA to win his second career Reliever of the Year honors.

Over his first four full seasons, Williams pitched to a 1.75 ERA while striking out 40.5% of opposing hitters across 200 1/3 innings. Heading into 2024, there was a decent argument for him as the best reliever in MLB. He hit his first real setback that Spring Training, as testing revealed two stress fractures in his back. He didn’t make his season debut until shortly before the trade deadline. Williams looked every bit as dominant during the regular season, reeling off 21 2/3 frames of three-run ball with 38 strikeouts to finish the year. His season ended in heartbreak fashion, as he surrendered a go-ahead homer to Pete Alonso in the final game of the Wild Card Series against his now current team.

That wound up being Williams’ final action in a Milwaukee uniform. The Brewers flipped him to the Yankees for veteran starter Nestor Cortes and rookie infielder Caleb Durbin in advance of his final season of arbitration. The Yankees surely felt they were acquiring one of the five to ten best relievers in the sport. Williams’ results, at least, didn’t come close to those expectations.

The veteran righty had a wildly inconsistent lone season in the Bronx. He was terrible early on, giving up at least three runs in a trio of his first 10 appearances. Consecutive poor outings at the end of April led the Yankees to move him to a setup role and put Luke Weaver back into the ninth inning. Williams had one more rough appearance in early May before settling into a groove over the next few weeks. He returned to closing when Weaver landed on the injured list at the beginning of June.

Williams was lights out from that point through the All-Star Break. He gave up runs in seven of his first nine appearances of the second half, though, and the Yankees pushed him out of the closer role for good when they acquired David Bednar at the trade deadline. Williams posted a 5.06 ERA in the second half despite striking out nearly 40% of batters faced — the second-best rate among qualified relievers behind Mason Miller. He worked in a setup capacity late in the season and into the playoffs. Williams tossed four scoreless frames with four strikeouts in the postseason.

The end result was a career-worst 4.79 earned run average over 67 appearances. The Mets are placing a decent sized bet that the poor run prevention was a fluke. Opponents had a .339 batting average on balls in play when runners were on base this year. That’s easily the highest mark in Williams’ career (aside from his brief 2019 debut). He had a very difficult time stranding runners as a result. While relievers certainly need to be able to work out of tough situations, that had never previously been an issue in Williams’ career.

Batted ball metrics can be volatile, especially for relievers who only throw 60-70 innings in a season. Williams’ stuff still grades out extremely well, and he remains capable of missing bats at a level that few other pitchers can match. He struck out 34.7% of opponents behind a 16.8% swinging strike rate this past season. Those are down slightly from his usual marks but remain among the best in MLB. Among relievers with 50+ innings, Williams finished eighth in strikeout rate and 10th in whiffs.

Williams has two pitches which he has used at roughly equal rates over the past couple seasons. His fastball sits around 94 MPH and while it’s a good pitch, his standout offering is his unique “Airbender” screwball/changeup. The pitch still moves unlike any other changeup in the league, and opponents have hit below .200 against it in every full season of his career.

The underlying numbers made Williams a popular “buy-low” target among teams and fanbases. That is borne out in the contract to an extent. Williams might have been in the running for a $100MM deal had he posted another sub-2.00 ERA season. It didn’t force him to settle for a pillow contract, as he’s still being paid as a high-end reliever. Williams falls well short of the four years and $72MM which Tanner Scott commanded last winter, but he’s not far off the $46-58MM range in which closers Robert Suarez, Liam Hendriks and Raisel Iglesias have found themselves over the past few offseasons. He came up shy of the four years and $68MM which MLBTR had predicted in ranking him the second-best reliever in the class.

While an ugly walk year ERA still has some impact on a pitcher’s market, Williams is the third example this offseason of teams placing a decent amount of emphasis on stuff and whiffs in spite of that. Dylan Cease commanded a seven-year deal for the Blue Jays, while Ryan Helsley pulled $14MM annually from the Orioles on a two-year contract with an opt-out despite a brutal finish to his 2025 season with the Mets. It’s easier for clubs to place that kind of bet on pitchers coming from a different team. The Mets were never likely to bring back Helsley, and while the Yankees reportedly kept in contact with Williams’ camp this offseason, they also opted not to issue him a $22.025MM qualifying offer that probably would have kept him around on a one-year deal.

More to come.

Latest On Giants’ Offseason Targets

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The Giants are among the teams looking to upgrade at second base, write Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. The keystone and right field are the obvious needs on the position player side for Buster Posey’s front office.

Tyler Fitzgerald entered the season as San Francisco’s starting second baseman. He’d hit .280/.334/.497 over 96 games during an impressive 2024 rookie campaign. A 32% strikeout rate always made him a clear regression candidate, however, and the Louisville product stumbled to a .217/.278/.327 line this past season. Fitzgerald lost his hold on the starting job by the end of June and spent most of the second half in Triple-A.

Casey Schmitt now holds the top spot on the depth chart. Schmitt had a league average .237/.305/.401 slash line over 348 plate appearances. That’s carried largely by a scorching two-week stretch in June, and he hit .227/.282/.402 after the All-Star Break. Light-hitting utility player Christian Koss is the only other option on the 40-man roster. Giants second basemen had a .217/.273/.343 showing on the season overall.

There’s not a whole lot available in free agency. There’s a clear roster fit for Bo Bichette if he’s willing to move to the other side of the second base bag, but the Giants already have three long-term deals in the infield for Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers. They could make a run at Ha-Seong Kim, who declined a $16MM player option and is one of the better shortstops available in a barren class.

Jorge Polanco’s knee injuries make him an iffy bet for everyday playing time at second base. The Giants won’t have many designated hitter at-bats available barring a surprising Bryce Eldridge trade. Luis Arraez would be an offensive upgrade but has been pushed mostly to first base over the past two seasons because of his lack of range. Utility pieces Willi Castro, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Luis Rengifo and Adam Frazier have limited upside.

There’s a little more available on the trade market. The Rays are willing to consider offers on Brandon Lowe, who’ll make $11.5MM in the final year of his contract. More than half the league should have interest in Cardinals utilityman Brendan Donovan. The Giants have an interesting group of controllable but not quite proven arms (e.g Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Blade Tidwell, Carson Whisenhunt) that could get the ball rolling in talks with the Cards, who are focusing on pitching in their trade returns. That’s theoretically also true if they want to make a push for Ketel Marte, though it’d be shocking if the Diamondbacks deal him within the division.

San Francisco is balancing the positional questions against their needs on the pitching staff. Posey called pitching the priority at the beginning of the offseason. Chairman Greg Johnson and general manager Zack Minasian each subsequently downplayed the team’s desire to make a long-term investment on the pitching side. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested over the weekend that the club was more involved on mid-tier free agent starters.

This afternoon, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic also downplayed the likelihood of a huge splash for a starter. Baggarly writes that the Giants do not expect to sign Tatsuya Imai and are unlikely to make a nine-figure commitment to any other top-tier starter (e.g. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez). That aligns with Olney’s reporting about the Giants playing in the middle of the market.

Baggarly adds that the Giants are also looking to rebuild a bullpen that was hit hard this summer. They traded away Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers (though the latter would have been a free agent anyhow) and lost breakout righty Randy Rodríguez to Tommy John surgery. Their only acquisition so far this offseason has been a one-year flier on lefty reliever Sam Hentges, who hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since July 2024 because of shoulder and knee surgeries.

Nationals To Hire Corey Ray As First Base Coach

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The Nationals are going to hire Corey Ray as first base coach, reports Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post. He had previously been working for the Cubs in the minor leagues. He will replace Gerardo Parra as the first base coach in Washington.

Ray, 31, was once a high profile prospect. The Brewers selected him fifth overall in the 2016 draft and signed him with a $4.125MM bonus. He clearly had incredible tools in terms of power and speed but he had trouble recognizing breaking pitches. This led to a lot of swing-and-miss, especially as he climbed the minor league ladder and faced better pitching. When he first reached Triple-A in 2019, he struck out in 38.7% of his plate appearances. He would lower than number in future seasons but still ended up walking back to the dugout about a third of the time.

His prospect stock dimmed but the Brewers still didn’t want to lose him in the 2019 Rule 5 draft, so they added him to the 40-man roster. He stuck on the 40-man for a while but only got into one major league game, on April 24th of 2021, going 0-2 with one walk, one strikeout and one run scored. He was sent through waivers unclaimed in June of 2022. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end and didn’t sign anywhere else.

In the spring of 2023, the Cubs hired Ray to serve as a bench coach for their Single-A Myrtle Beach affiliate. Going into 2024, he was named manager of the club’s Arizona Complex League team. Nusbaum notes that Ray has also been serving as the organization’s baserunning coordinator.

The Nats are undergoing a major overhaul of their organization. Their ongoing rebuild has failed to show much progress and so just about everything is on the chopping block. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez were fired midseason. In September, Paul Toboni was hired as the club’s new president of baseball operations.

In October, it was reported that interim manager Miguel Cairo wouldn’t be continuing in that role while six coaches would only be brought back if the new manager wanted them on the staff. Those six were pitching coach Jim Hickey, hitting coach Darnell Coles, third base coach Ricky Gutierrez, bullpen coach Ricky Bones, catching/strategy coach Henry Blanco and Parra. Blake Butera was hired as the new manager a couple of days after that reporting. Since then, the Nats have hired Michael Johns as bench coach, Simon Mathews as pitching coach and now Ray as first base coach.

Fresh blood seems to be the name of the game. Johns is 50 years old but Toboni is 35, Butera 33 and Mathews 30. As mentioned, Ray is just 31 and not too far removed from his playing days. Younger doesn’t necessarily mean better and the Nats are presumably looking at attributes other than just age but it is perhaps an interesting symbol of how the organization felt it was falling behind the times and needed to quickly modernize.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Orioles Sign Ryan Helsley

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The Orioles have signed right-hander Ryan Helsley to a two-year contract that allows him to opt out after the 2026 season. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, who’d also receive a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. The salary is evenly distributed, so Helsley will decide on a $14MM player option next winter.

Felix Bautista underwent shoulder surgery last August that will keep the closer on the injured list until at least August 2026, and that timeline means one setback could sideline Bautista for the entirety of the 2026 campaign.  As a result, the Orioles headed into the offseason looking for multiple bullpen additions, including a pitcher with past experience as a closer.

Helsley fits that description, as he racked up 105 saves as the Cardinals’ primary ninth-inning choice from 2022-25.  This stretch saw Helsley named to two NL All-Star teams, he was the NL’s Reliever Of The Year in 2024, and he even received some down-ballot Cy Young Award consideration in both 2022 and 2024.  Overall, Helsley posted a 2.67 ERA, 29.12% strikeout rate, and 9.93% walk rate over 299 2/3 innings in a St. Louis uniform, from his debut with the team in 2019 until he was traded to the Mets at last July’s trade deadline.

Given the Cardinals’ struggles over the last few seasons and Helsley’s looming free agency, it was seen as a surprise that it took so long for the reliever to be traded.  (In fact, the Orioles were first rumored to be interested in Helsley back in May 2024.)  Even trading Helsley last winter in the wake of his excellent 2024 would’ve brought a greater return back to the Cardinals, though they still landed three prospects in the midseason deal with New York.  And, considering how things went south for Helsley with the Mets, it’s hard to say the Cards didn’t come out on top in the deal.

Over 20 innings and 22 appearances with the Mets, Helsley was torched for a 7.20 ERA, with his home run rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate all going in the wrong direction.  Helsley felt he was tipping his pitches during his time in New York, but whatever the cause, the move back into a setup role behind Edwin Diaz ended up as a wash.  Helsley’s struggles were one of the many reasons behind a disastrous second half for the Mets that saw the team slowly fade out of the playoff race and ultimately fall short of the postseason.

Despite this rough stretch, close to half the league reportedly had interest in Helsley on the open market.  The Blue Jays, Cubs, and Tigers were among the many teams who saw Helsley as a bounce-back candidate and, intriguingly, Detroit and some other clubs viewed Helsley as a potential starting pitcher.  Given how Helsley has never started a game at the MLB level, it would’ve been a surprising development to see him land somewhere as a rotation candidate, but he’ll now settle into his familiar closing role in Baltimore.

MLB Trade Rumors still ranked Helsley 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. He topped our projection of a two-year, $24MM deal, and he might end up handily topping $24MM over a two-year timeframe depending on what happens with his opt-out clause.  If he rediscovers his 2024 form, Helsley will surely choose to re-enter free agency in search of a more lucrative longer-term contract.  The Orioles might not mind that scenario if Bautista is back healthy by that point, and Helsley could then be tagged with a qualifying offer heading into free agency next winter.

Helsley brings elite velocity and spin with his 99.3mph fastball, though batters teed off on Helsley’s fastball in 2025, and his slider has been the more effective of his pitches over the last few years.  The righty has long struggled to avoid walks or hard contact, though the home run ball was never a huge issue until his brief stint with the Mets.  It obviously wasn’t the ideal platform for Helsley as he entered free agency, yet it is understandable why the Orioles still felt comfortable in making a two-year investment in his services.

Even a two-year pact counts as a big step for an O’s front office that has been pretty conservative about investing heavily in free agents.  Much of Mike Elias’ seven-year stint in charge of the baseball operations department was spent rebuilding, of course, but Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM deal from last winter is the only other multi-year contract Elias has even given to a free agent.  The Orioles’ disappointing 75-win performance in 2025 may have raised the urgency level, as Baltimore has been linked to a number of top-shelf names in this year’s free agent market.

Between signing Helsley and re-acquiring old friend Andrew Kittredge, the back end of the Orioles’ bullpen looks much sturdier than it did at season’s end.  More relievers could still be on the way, but Baltimore’s primary pitching need is now rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that Helsley was in agreement with Baltimore on a two-year deal with an opt-out. Katie Woo of The Athletic had the $28MM guarantee, while The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the $500K assignment bonus. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.

Inset photo courtesy of Brad Penner — Imagn Images

Rockies Sign Nicky Lopez, John Brebbia To Minor League Deals

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The Rockies have signed infielder Nicky Lopez and right-hander John Brebbia to minor league deals, reports Kevin Henry of the Denver Gazette. Both players will receive invites to big league spring training. Lopez is represented by CAA and Brebbia by Icon Sports Management.

Lopez, 31 in March, has largely been a glove-first infielder in his career. He did have a nice .300/.365/.378 showing in 2021 but that seems to have been fuelled by a .347 batting average on balls in play, far higher than any other season he has played. In his career, he has stepped to the plate 2,374 times with just seven home runs. His 14.3% strikeout rate is quite low but his 7.6% walk rate is subpar. Put it all together and he has a .245/.310/.311 line and 73 wRC+, indicating he’s been 27% below league average at the plate.

Despite the lack of punch with the bat, Lopez has been able to carve out big league playing time on the strength of his defense. He has experience at all four infield spots and in left field. Reviews on his shortstop defense are mixed. He’s been credited with -11 Defensive Runs Saved at that spot, although a lot of that comes from a -9 in just 344 2/3 innings with the White Sox in 2024. Outs Above Average, meanwhile, has ranked him as 33 runs better than par at short. Both metrics give him positive reviews at the other positions he’s played.

Lopez got pushed to a fringe roster player in 2025. He got close to everyday playing time from 2019 to 2024 but he only got into 19 games and received 28 plate appearances this year. He had brief stints with the Angels and Cubs early in the year, then was stuck in the minors for the final few months of the season, bouncing to the Diamondbacks, Yankees and Cubs again.

The Rockies have plenty of uncertainty on their roster. They just lost 119 games and are retooling the organization. On the infield, Ezequiel Tovar is locked in at short but the other positions are up for grabs. Tyler Freeman, Kyle Karros, Troy Johnston, Adael Amador, Warming Bernabel, Ryan Ritter and Blaine Crim are all on the roster but Freeman is the only guy in that group with more than 60 games in the big leagues. Freeman can also play the outfield and might end up there, depending on what other moves the Rockies make.

In short, there’s lots of room for a veteran infielder. The Rockies had guys like Orlando Arcia, Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer on the roster in 2025 as veteran utility types but they’re all free agents now. If Lopez eventually cracks the roster, he can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent as a guy with at least five years of big league service time.

As for Brebbia, he’s a buy-low move for the Rockies. He had a strong run from 2017 to 2023, tossing 299 2/3 innings for the Cardinals and Giants, allowing 3.42 earned runs per nine. His 25.5% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate over that span were both better than league average. He got enough leverage work to earn two saves and 47 holds in those seasons.

The past two years haven’t been as smooth, however. He signed a one-year, $5.5MM deal with the White Sox going into 2024. Between Chicago and a brief appearance with Atlanta late in the year, he had a 5.86 ERA. However, his 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate were still strong. His ERA spike seemed to be connected to a career-high 11 home runs allowed.

The Tigers signed him to a one-year, $2.75MM deal going into 2025, hoping for a bounceback. They didn’t get it. He struggled and was designated for assignment in June. Like the year before, he was briefly scooped up by Atlanta. He finished the year with a 7.71 ERA over 22 appearances. His 22.6% strikeout rate was around average but his 10.4% walk rate was subpar. His home run woes continued, as he allowed five in less than half as many innings pitched as in the year prior.

The Rockies had a collective 5.99 ERA in 2025, the worst such mark in the majors. They have very few experienced pitchers on the roster. Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela are the only two with more than five years of service time. Neither has been especially effective in recent years. If they get back on track in 2026, they will likely be traded since both are only signed through 2026, with contract options for 2027.

Brebbia is turning 36 in May and spent part of 2025 on the injured list due to a triceps strain. Maybe the odds of a bounceback aren’t great, particularly if he ends up pitching in Coors, but the Rockies need pitching more than any other club and will likely take a number of fliers on pitchers like this. They recently signed Parker Mushinski to a minor league deal and will certainly ink a few more deals of this type.

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

Shawn Armstrong Hoping To Return To Rangers

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Free agent reliever Shawn Armstrong is coming off a career-best season with the Rangers and is hopeful of returning to Texas this offseason, per Jeff Wilson of DLLS Sports. Wilson adds that the 35-year-old Armstrong is “likely” seeking a two-year deal, which comes as little surprise given the quality of the season he just had.

The journeyman Armstrong has pitched for four teams in the past two seasons and eight in his big league career. Seeking out some more certainty and stability is understandable, particularly on the heels of a year in which he posted a career-high 74 innings with a sparkling 2.31 ERA. Armstrong punched out 26.1% of his opponents, though his 10.3% swinging-strike rate and 23.3% opponents’ chase rate don’t necessarily support a return to that level of bat-missing. The right-hander’s 7% walk rate was also strong, however, and opponents averaged just 88 mph off the bat against him with a paltry 34.2% hard-hit rate.

Armstrong has had a tumultuous career in terms of year-to-year results. He’s pitched at least eight MLB frames in each of the past 11 seasons but has had trouble sticking in one spot and repeating his best seasons. His ERA marks fluctuate wildly on a year-to-year basis, but in the aggregate, Armstrong has been a quality big league reliever. In 421 1/3 frames, the former 18th-round pick has turned in a 3.82 ERA with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. That includes a 2.94 ERA over the past three seasons, though that’s broken down in the form of a 1.83 ERA in 2023, a 4.86 mark in 2024 and this past season’s 2.31 level.

In terms of velocity, Armstrong topped out with a 95.3 mph average fastball back in 2022. He was down to 93.5 mph in 2025, but that mark was slightly better than last year’s 93.3 mph mark. As with his run-prevention numbers, Armstrong’s velocity readings have oscillated over the years. He complements his four-seamer with a cutter, sinker and slider, using the four at similar clips (between 23.4% and 29.1%).

The Rangers entered the 2024-25 offseason in desperate need of a bullpen overhaul. They achieved that goal almost exclusively via one-year deals in free agency. Beyond trading Nathaniel Lowe for Robert Garcia, Texas signed Armstrong, Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, Luke Jackson and Jacob Webb to one-year contracts. All of those deals, other than Jackson, paid off handsomely. It was an impressive run of bargain-level success stories, but because Texas operated primarily in the one-year deal bin, the Rangers watched nearly their entire bullpen hit free agency this offseason. They’ll need to similarly restock the shelves this offseason, and replicating that level of success will be a tall order.

Whether Texas will shell out the type of money necessary to retain Armstrong at peak value is entirely unclear. The Rangers haven’t been shy about the fact that payroll is going down. They already traded the final three seasons of Marcus Semien’s contract for five years of Brandon Nimmo, who has a lighter annual luxury-tax hit. Nimmo said he only agreed to waive his no-trade clause with the Mets after talking to Rangers president of baseball ops Chris Young and being assured that Texas is not heading into a rebuild. Be that as it may, the Rangers are spending less.

Wilson speculates that if Armstrong is seeking a two-year deal similar to the one signed by former Rangers bullpen-mate Phil Maton — the Rangers added Maton and Danny Coulombe at the trade deadline — that might be too steep. Maton landed two years and a total of $14.5MM with the Cubs. He adds that both Milner and Coulombe live in the area and thus might be more amenable to signing back in Texas at slightly on affordable deals.

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday. I'll get going at 3pm CT today, but as always, feel free to send in some questions in advance if you prefer!
  • Hey there! We'll get started a few minutes early today

JeDi Mind trick

  • Is Tatis really available? What kind of package from the M’s would it take?

Steve Adams

  • Tatis isn't going to be moved, no. The Padres have payroll concerns, but the idea of them trading Tatis isn't really rooted in much more than wishcasting.Plus, he still has nine years and $286MM to go on his contract. Moving a contract of that size and lining up on younger talent going back to San Diego would be an immense undertaking. And I don't know that the Mariners are looking to add another $250MM+ outfielder alongside Julio.

Next Rangers moves?

  • What are the chances of the Rangers signing Luis Arraez for 3B and getting either Yates or Robertson back to close?

Steve Adams

  • I have seen fans -- Rangers, in particular -- suggest Arraez at second base and third base. I cannot fathom a team playing him regularly at third base, and second is only moderately more likely. If you sign Arraez, just play him at first base.I also doubt Texas is spending that type of one-year money on a reliever, though I suppose maybe Robertson's price isn't all that high after a so-so run in his return to Philly

Cody Ponce should sign with...

  • Plenty of teams need pitching. Cody Ponce is a very interesting name for a variety of teams; especially those that would be more comfortable with handing out shorter term contracts to starters. Given that Ponce appears in line for a contract worth $10M to $14M a year over 3 or 4 years, which teams do you see as being the most aggressive/better fits for him?I could see the Brewers, Orioles, and Giants being the most aggressive for him due to need and cost.

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Latest On Cody Ponce

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Right-hander Cody Ponce left South Korea this past weekend to travel back to the United States, per a report from Bae Young-Uen of the Korea JoongAng Daily. Ponce and his wife welcomed a daughter in early November and had been planning to remain in South Korea through the end of the year as a result, but interest in the right-hander has picked up enough that he’s traveling back to North America earlier than anticipated (presumably for some in-person meetings).

Interest in the 6’6″ righty indeed appears strong. Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic reported this morning that Ponce could more than double the $15MM guarantee secured by Erick Fedde in his return to Major League Baseball from the Korea Baseball Organization two offseasons ago. Clubs are generally expecting Ponce to command a three-year contract, per The Athletic report. Fedde’s $15MM guarantee is the largest a North American pitcher has received upon returning from the KBO, so doubling that (or more) would establish a new precedent.

Topping $30MM would be fairly sizable risk on a 31-year-old (32 in April) who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2021 and has never had much big league success. Ponce, however, was recently named the KBO MVP after a historically dominant season. Pitching to a 1.89 ERA in 180 2/3 innings with the Hanwha Eagles, Ponce set the single-season strikeout record (252) and the single-game strikeout record (18) in South Korea’s top league. He fanned a comical 36.2% of his opponents with a mammoth 16.5% swinging-strike rate and just a 5.9% walk rate.

Back in 2020-21, Ponce threw 55 1/3 innings for the Pirates, who’d acquired him from the division-rival Brewers. The former second-round pick was roughed up for a 5.86 ERA in 55 1/3 innings and struck out only 19.6% of his opponents.

Things have changed for Ponce since that first MLB run. He’s spent three years pitching in Japan and a fourth (2025) in Korea. The 255-pound righty has added substantial velocity, jumping from a 93.2 mph average fastball with the Pirates to what The Athletic’s Eno Sarris suggests was a 95 mph average with the Eagles.

Evaluators who spoke to MLBTR last month ahead of our Top 50 Free Agent List (where Ponce ranked 39th) offered similar reviews, noting that he sat 94-96 mph and topped out at 98 mph. Ponce has also added a splitter and kick changeup that have missed bats. A scout who spoke to MLBTR brought Ponce up unprompted when discussing other free agents from Japan’s NPB and the KBO, opining that he might top $20MM. That was before free agency opened in earnest.

If there was any doubt about Ponce’s looming return to MLB, the Eagles’ actions since season’s end likely erase that. The JoongAng Daily report indicates that Hanwha has already effectively replaced Ponce by signing 26-year-old righty Wilkel Hernandez, who spent the past several seasons pitching with the Tigers’ Triple-A club. If the Eagles felt there was any chance of retaining their ace and reigning MVP, they’d surely have waited, as KBO teams are restricted on the number of foreign players they can roster.

Royals President Expresses Openness To Trading Starter For Outfielder

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The Royals have been looking for outfield upgrades for years. This winter, they seem to have a tight budget but a strong rotation, which has led to speculation about them trading a starting pitcher for an outfielder. “Our starting pitching, we have some depth there,” Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “A lot of teams are looking for starting pitching, so if we have what they may be interested in, and they have an outfielder that would be of interest, then there’s potentially the opportunity to make a deal.” Speier notes that the Royals had interest in Jarren Duran of the Red Sox prior to the trade deadline.

As mentioned, it’s been a long time since the Royals got strong production from the grass. Last winter, they were connected to free agents such as Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar but fell short in those pursuits. Kansas City outfielders produced a collective line of .225/.285/.348 in 2025. That resulted in a 73 wRC+, indicating they were 27% below league average, the worst group in the majors.

It was reported last month that the club is looking for outfield help on the trade market. That makes sense for a number of reasons. For one, there’s the payroll. Back in October, owner John Sherman suggested the club would likely have a similar payroll in 2026 as they did in 2025. RosterResource currently projects the club to spend $139MM on the 2026 squad, which is already above the $138MM they spent by the end of 2025.

Also, the free agent outfield market has  a big gap. At the top, there are guys like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, who will be out of the Royals’ price range. Then there’s a big drop to the tier featuring guys like Mike Yastrzemski and Harrison Bader. The Royals just acquired Yastrzemski at the deadline and he played well for them. Presumably, they would have interest in bringing him back but he might get an eight-figure deal and is now 35 years old, so it would make sense if they considered cheaper and/or younger options.

Put it all together and trading from the rotation seems like a decent possibility, something that MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored a few weeks back. The Royals currently have Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Bailey Falter, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila and Ben Kudrna for five rotation spots. A trade of Wacha or Lugo feels unlikely because they both signed extensions with the Royals in the past 13 months. Bubic has reportedly drawn some trade interest but he might not be able to bring back a massive return. He is down to one year of club control and missed the final few months of 2025 due to a rotator cuff strain.

That perhaps points to Ragans as the most logical candidate, but there are issues there as well. It would be a sell-low move for the Royals. He finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting in 2024 by putting up a 3.14 earned run average over 186 1/3 innings. But in 2025, he spent a decent amount of time on the injured list due to groin and rotator cuff injuries. He only made 13 starts with his ERA jumping to 4.67.

He is still controllable for another three years. He is already signed for $4.5MM in 2026 and $7.5MM in 2027. He would then be controllable for the 2028 campaign via arbitration. Despite his rough 2025, the Royals would surely put a massive asking price on him, considering his talent, affordability and controllability. “I wouldn’t say off limits,” Picollo said, when asked if any of his pitchers are untouchable. “There would have to be a really big return for one [starter] in particular.” That statement seems likely to be in reference to Ragans.

The Royals could perhaps try to trade one of the group including Cameron, Bergert, Kolek, Avila and Kudrna but no one in that group has shown the tremendous ceiling of Ragans. Though those players are still in their pre-arb years, a team looking for a surefire rotation upgrade wouldn’t have as much interest as they would in Ragans.

For the Red Sox, they are a logical trade partner for the Royals. They have been looking for rotation upgrades and have too many outfielders. Currently, their outfield mix consists of Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida, with prospect Jhostynxon García waiting in the wings.

Trade rumors around this group have been around for quite a while. Anthony and Rafaela have been signed to extensions and seem very unlikely to be available. The Sox would probably love to move Yoshida but his contract and poor performance give him negative trade value. Wilyer and Abreu feel a bit redundant, so it’s those two who often appear in rumors most often. Both are strong defenders who hit left-handed and have notable platoon splits.

Abreu still has four years of club control remaining whereas Duran as three. Duran also qualified for arbitration a year early as a Super Two player, meaning he gets four arb passes instead of just three. While Abreu is still a year away from arbitration, Duran made $3.85MM in 2025 and will get a bump to $7.75MM plus performance bonuses in 2026. The Sox don’t seem to have a ton of powder dry for the rest of the offseason, so perhaps they would lean towards trading Duran. He could perhaps bring back a notable return on the pitching front while also saving the Sox some money.

Duran has slashed .271/.337/.468 since the start of 2024 for a 121 wRC+. He has also stolen 58 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense. FanGraphs credited with 10.8 wins above replacement over that two-year span.

That kind of production would certainly look good in the Kansas City outfield. Currently, there’s not a lot locked in. Jac Caglianone will probably get another chance, even though he performed poorly in his 2025 debut. Kyle Isbel projects as the favorite in center, mostly on account of his glove. Duran has lots of center field experience but the Sox have been using him in left recently, largely in deference to Rafaela. Guys like Drew Waters, Kameron Misner, John Rave and Dairon Blanco are on the roster but would ideally be pushed down the depth chart.

The Sox already made one notable addition to their rotation by acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals. He’ll slot in alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello as locks for the front of the Boston rotation. That leaves two spots available for guys like Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison and others. Crawford and Sandoval are big wild cards after spending 2025 on the IL, while the others are young guys still looking to get fully established in the big leagues.

Reportedly, the Sox are focused on the lineup after the Gray trade but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be interested in further bolstering the rotation if they get a chance. Perhaps the Royals and Red Sox can line something up but there are many other possible paths. If Ragans is available, then the Royals will presumably discuss him with dozens of other clubs and not just the Red Sox. Boston, meanwhile, would surely get plenty of calls if they were willing to deal Duran.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Rays Hire Brandon Hyde As Senior Advisor To Baseball Operations

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Dec. 1: The Rays announced Monday that Hyde has joined the organization as a senior advisor to the baseball operations department.

Nov. 26: Former Orioles skipper Brandon Hyde is in talks with the Rays about taking a position within the organization, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. The two parties have been discussing a senior advisor role that would see Hyde work with both the major league club and various minor league affiliates, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds. Murray indicates that while an agreement has not yet been finalized, Hyde is expected to end up working for the Rays for the upcoming season.

Hyde, 52, managed the Orioles from 2019-25. In his seven seasons with Baltimore, his clubs produced a 421-491 record. Judging any manager based on wins and losses alone is a frivolous endeavor, though, and that’s especially true of Hyde, whose first season in Baltimore coincided with a complete teardown and rebuild of the organization. Following the 2018 season, the Orioles dismissed general manager Dan Duquette, hiring current president of baseball operations Mike Elias in his place. Elias installed Hyde as his new skipper but also gutted the roster and spent several seasons tanking while working to rebuild the farm system and modernize the infrastructure of the organization.

Hyde oversaw winning teams each season from 2022-24 and was named 2023 AL Manager of the Year after the O’s won the American League East and piled up 101 victories. The Orioles went to the postseason in both 2023 and 2024 but were swept out of the playoffs both times — first in the ALDS by the eventual World Series champion Rangers and next by the Royals in the 2024 Wild Card round of play.

The Orioles entered 2025 with big expectations but floundered out of the gates thanks to a clear lack of starting pitching and a lineup that wasn’t performing as expected. By mid-May, the 15-28 Orioles had seen their season already slip away. Hyde was dismissed from his managerial post and replaced by third base coach Tony Mansolino on an interim basis.

Prior to his time at the helm in Baltimore, Hyde was a bench coach and first base coach with the Cubs. Before that, he spent two seasons as the Marlins’ bench coach plus several years as a manager, hitting coach and field coordinator in Miami’s minor league ranks. A catcher and first baseman in his playing days, Hyde also spent four years playing in the White Sox’ system before moving onto the coaching and managerial phase of his career.

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