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The Opener: AL East, Reds, Fry

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. AL East race tightens:

The Blue Jays have been in control of the AL East for almost three months, but their hold on the division is getting shakier. The Yankees not only clinched yesterday after their third consecutive win — they pulled within a game of a Blue Jays club that lost to the Red Sox. If the Yankees and southpaw Max Fried (2.92 ERA) can take care of business against the White Sox in a bullpen game opened by Fraser Ellard (4.50 ERA in 16 appearances), they’ll have the chance to pull into a tie with the Jays. Toronto has a tough task tonight with Boston ace Garrett Crochet (2.69 ERA) on the mound against Max Scherzer (5.06 ERA in 16 starts). It’s worth noting that the Yankees would need to make up another game even after today, as the Jays hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two clubs.

2. Reds, Greene take on Skenes in pivotal pitchers’ duel:

The Mets bested the Cubs in a back-and-forth series opener last night, while the Reds dropped their series opener against Pittsburgh to fall one game back in the Wild Card race. That’s a significant drop with just a handful of games to go, and the road doesn’t get any easier with NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes standing in their way tonight. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they’re able to counter with their own ace. Hunter Greene has been limited to just 18 starts by injury, he’s pitched to a 2.74 ERA and struck out 31.5% of his opponents when healthy.

3. Fry hospitalized following hit-by-pitch:

A scary scene took place in yesterday’s game between the Tigers and Guardians when Cleveland designated hitter David Fry was struck in the face by a 99 mph fastball from reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. As noted by MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins, Fry stayed conscious the entire time but was being held for observation overnight at a local hospital. The extent of Fry’s injuries aren’t yet known, but it seems reasonable to expect the injury could sideline him for the final week of the regular season and into the playoffs, should the Guardians manage to sustain their incredible comeback. Last night’s 5-2 win pulled Cleveland into a tie with a reeling Detroit club. Tonight’s game will pit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty (4.60 ERA) against Guards righty Tanner Bibee (4.34 ERA).

Blue Jays Designate Alek Manoah For Assignment, Activate Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays have designated former Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah for assignment. That clears a 40-man roster spot for Anthony Santander, who returns from the 60-day injured list. Toronto placed Ty France on the 10-day IL with oblique inflammation to clear space on the active roster.

It’s an abrupt end to Manoah’s time in Toronto. The Jays selected the big right-hander with the 11th overall pick in the 2019 draft. The West Virginia product reached the big leagues two seasons later. He fired 20 starts with a 3.22 earned run average to finish eighth in AL Rookie of the Year balloting. Manoah built off that promising debut with a fantastic first full season in the big leagues. He threw just under 200 innings with a 2.24 ERA across 31 starts.

Among qualified American League pitchers, only Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease had a lower earned run average that year. Manoah landed behind that duo with a third-place finish in Cy Young balloting. He earned an All-Star nod and received down ballot MVP votes. Even if Manoah’s underlying marks weren’t quite so dominant, he was one of the most promising young pitchers in the game.

At the time, it would’ve been impossible to imagine the Jays cutting him loose less than three years later. Manoah’s stock has tumbled since the end of 2022. He allowed almost six earned runs per nine across 19 big league starts the following year. His strikeout rate dropped nearly four percentage points while his walks doubled. The Jays optioned him to the minors twice as he fell out of favor with the team competing for a playoff spot.

Manoah was slated to return to the rotation to open the ’24 campaign. He battled shoulder soreness during Spring Training and was forced to begin the season on the injured list. The Jays activated him in May. Manoah pitched well over five starts, turning in a 3.70 ERA with much better command than he’d had in the preceding season. His elbow gave out in early June, however, sending him for season-ending UCL surgery.

That’ll very likely turn out to be his last MLB work in a Jays uniform. Manoah finished last season on the 60-day injured list. He’d been on the IL for most of this season completing his rehab. The Jays activated him a couple weeks ago but didn’t have room for him on the MLB pitching staff. They kept him at Triple-A Buffalo on optional assignment.

Manoah managed a 2.97 ERA across seven Triple-A starts, but that came in spite of an unimpressive set of underlying numbers. His strikeout (20.4%), walk (12.2%) and home run (1.62 per nine innings) marks were all worse than average. Perhaps even more concerning is that his fastball was sitting 91 MPH. His heater had been around 94 during his excellent first two seasons and was above 93 before his elbow surgery last year.

The Jays are evidently pessimistic about his chance of recapturing his pre-injury form. Manoah certainly wasn’t going to be in the mix for a spot on this year’s playoff roster. Keeping him would have been about the next two seasons. Manoah is under arbitration control through the end of 2027. He made $2.2MM this season and will be in line for a matching rate next year if he’s tendered a contract. Toronto’s front office decided they weren’t going to take that roll of the dice.

Manoah will be placed on waivers this week. That’s in reverse order of the standings and is not league specific. The Rockies will have the first opportunity to decide whether to take a flier. They’ll be followed by the White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Twins and so on. There’s a good chance someone will place a claim and hope that a healthy offseason allows Manoah to rebuild arm strength.

He’d remain controllable for another two seasons with a new club and still has two minor league options, so a claiming team could have him begin next season in Triple-A. If he clears waivers, Manoah would likely accept an outright assignment and remain with the Jays for the remainder of the season, but he’d qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason.

In the short term, the bigger news for Toronto is Santander’s return. Their big-ticket offseason signee has been out of action since the end of May with a left shoulder injury. Toronto has been the top team in the American League despite getting virtually nothing out of the switch-hitting slugger. Santander hit just six homers while batting .179/.273/.304 through 209 trips to the plate.

Santander is one season removed from hitting 44 home runs with the Orioles. He might head into the postseason as a high-upside bench bat. The Jays kept him mostly at designated hitter on his rehab assignment. He started seven games as a DH and played twice in left field. George Springer is having a huge year as the primary DH. Even if the Jays were comfortable using him as an everyday right fielder in the playoffs, it’s not clear if they’d have DH at-bats available for Santander. Bo Bichette is aiming for a postseason return from his sprained PCL, but he may not be ready to play shortstop. That’d force the Jays to play Bichette at DH with Springer in right.

Davis Schneider and Nathan Lukes have divided the corner outfield playing time. They’ve each had decent seasons overall but haven’t hit this month. Santander could push one of them out of the lineup if the Jays are comfortable with his arm. He’d otherwise be left to operate in a bench role, especially if Bichette returns as a DH for the start of the playoffs. Lukes and Schneider got the nod between left and right field tonight against Boston and Lucas Giolito.

Nationals Notes: Garcia, Parker, Gray

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Nationals infielder Luis García Jr. made his first career appearance at first base during Tuesday’s loss in Atlanta. García started the game and played all eight defensive innings. Nasim Nuñez played second base with CJ Abrams back in the lineup at shortstop.

García began taking pregame drills at first base a little over a month ago. The Nats got to a point where they felt comfortable playing the 25-year-old there in a game. García is a middling defender at the keystone. Washington doesn’t have an answer at first base for the 2026 season. García’s .253/.290/.399 slash line wouldn’t play as a regular there either, but there’s no downside in expanding his flexibility.

The former highly-regarded prospect could find himself on the roster bubble as he’d be due a raise on this year’s $4.5MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract. He may have a better chance of remaining on the roster if he’s not locked into the keystone. Teams generally prefer not to carry second base-only players on the bench. García’s inability to play shortstop still leaves him as an imperfect fit for a utility role.

Nuñez might be a better candidate for that job. He’s the team’s best defensive infielder. The 5’8″ switch-hitter has had a very light bat for most of his career, but he has connected for an out-of-nowhere four home runs in 12 games since being recalled from Triple-A at the start of September. He has picked up a few more starts down the stretch as he tries to stake a claim to an Opening Day roster spot.

The Nats also made a change to their pitching roles over the weekend. Lefty Mitchell Parker, who started his first 30 appearances, has been moved to the bullpen (link via Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). He worked 3 2/3 scoreless innings to lock down a 3-2 win over the Mets on Sunday, getting the save in his first career relief outing. It was an impressive performance from the second-year southpaw, who has struggled to a 5.85 ERA across 158 1/3 innings as a starter.

Parker had better numbers as a rookie. He turned in a 4.29 ERA over 29 starts a year ago. Both he and Jake Irvin took steps back this year, going from capable back-of-the-rotation arms to two of the least effective starters in MLB. Irvin has held his rotation spot despite allowing 5.69 earned runs per nine over his 32 starts. The Nats are finishing the season with a rotation of Cade Cavalli, Brad Lord, Andrew Alvarez and Irvin. They shut down MacKenzie Gore with an ankle injury this afternoon, so they may need to turn back to Parker for a final spot start to close the year.

Gore will be an offseason trade candidate as he enters his final two years of club control. Cavalli is probably the only other pitcher whom the club would be willing to pencil into next year’s rotation right now. Whomever takes over baseball operations will need to make multiple additions.

Josiah Gray will rejoin the rest of the aforementioned group in battling for spots at the back end. Gray has completed his rehab from last July’s UCL surgery. The Nats opted not to press him back into action for an MLB start and decided to shut him down this week, but he’ll go into what is expected to be an essentially typical offseason (link via Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com).

Dodgers To Activate Roki Sasaki From Injured List

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Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki is set to rejoin the team on Wednesday. He’s expected to be activated from the 60-day IL after missing more than four months with a shoulder impingement. Sasaki will work out of the bullpen, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Sonja Chen of MLB.com). Los Angeles already has an open 40-man roster spot after waiving Chuckie Robinson over the weekend, so they’ll only need to make an active roster move.

Sasaki hit the IL on May 9 with the shoulder issue. He made seven appearances on his rehab assignment, posting a 6.10 ERA across 20 2/3 innings with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Sasaki initially worked as a starter during his minor league stint but appeared in relief in his final two outings. He tossed a pair of scoreless, hitless innings as a reliever, notching three strikeouts.

It’s been a challenging season for Sasaki in his first taste of big-league action. The NPB import has scuffled to a 4.72 ERA across eight MLB starts. The underlying metrics are even worse, with Sasaki recording an unsightly 5.88 SIERA and a 6.38 xERA. Shaky control was the main culprit. Sasaki had nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (24) over 34 1/3 innings. His massive 14.3% walk rate is more than double his worst season with the Chiba Lotte Marines (7.1% in 2024). The shoulder injury could’ve affected Sasaki’s command, though the 13.7% BB% during his rehab assignment doesn’t suggest much improvement.

Sasaki will have five days to make his case for the postseason roster. Los Angeles could certainly use another viable option in the bullpen. The Dodgers rank 20th in bullpen ERA on the season, and they’ve slipped to 25th in September. Michael Kopech is back on the IL, this time with knee inflammation. Tanner Scott has a 7.27 ERA and a pair of blown saves since returning from an elbow injury. Blake Treinen melted down again on Sunday against San Francisco. The veteran has allowed three earned runs on three occasions in September alone after allowing multiple runs just three times in 2024. A few decent showings from Sasaki out of the bullpen could be enough to earn him a spot on the playoff squad.

With the Dodgers boasting a largely healthy stable of starters to close the season, a return to the rotation wasn’t an option for Sasaki. Blake Snell returned in early August after dealing with his own shoulder injury, joining mainstays Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Los Angeles has gotten passable contributions from Clayton Kershaw in what will be his final season, plus a breakout year from Emmet Sheehan. With Shohei Ohtani back on the mound and regularly tossing five innings, there wasn’t any room for Sasaki. The Dodgers will likely pare down their six-man rotation in the postseason, leaving even fewer opportunities for Sasaki to function as a starter.

Kershaw’s departure will open one rotation spot in 2026, though Sasaki will have plenty of competition to fill the job. Kyle Hurt and River Ryan should return after both underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024. Gavin Stone could be back in the mix after shoulder surgery last October. Ben Casparius and Landon Knack are hanging around in the minors. And of course, the deep-pocketed Dodgers will likely be contenders for the top arms on the free agent market.

Astros’ Brandon Walter Undergoes UCL Surgery

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Astros southpaw Brandon Walter underwent UCL reconstruction surgery yesterday, the team informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Meanwhile, Ari Alexander reports that southpaw John Rooney had a procedure to remove bone spurs and address tennis elbow.

Houston had announced a couple weeks back that both pitchers were going under the knife. They didn’t provide specifics at the time beyond calling each a season-ending elbow procedure. The news is obviously much worse for Walter, who’ll miss all of next season. Rooney’s surgery is less significant and it doesn’t seem out of the question that he’ll be available for Spring Training.

Walter, 29, had proven a nice pickup on a minor league deal last August. Houston selected his contract at the end of May. Walter picked up nine starts for an injury-riddled rotation. He tossed a quality start in six of those outings, working to a 3.35 earned run average across 53 2/3 innings overall. The former Red Sox prospect punched out a quarter of batters faced against a pristine 1.9% walk rate. Walter overcame pedestrian velocity to get chases and whiffs at slightly above-average rates.

Unfortunately, the injury bug struck again for the 29-year-old. Walter missed the entire 2024 season after suffering a rotator cuff injury while pitching in minor league camp with Boston. That led the Red Sox to release him, paving the way for him to land in Houston. Walter probably showed enough for the Astros to keep him on the 40-man roster throughout the upcoming offseason. They’d be able to place him back on the 60-day injured list at the beginning of Spring Training.

Rooney may have a tougher time sticking on the roster. He was on a minor league deal with the Marlins when Houston acquired him at the beginning of August. Rooney came up for his big league debut in late August. He tossed 1 1/3 innings of one-run ball before suffering the season-ending injury. The 28-year-old reliever combined for a 2.56 ERA over 38 2/3 Triple-A frames this year.

Rangers Outright Carl Edwards Jr.

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September 23: Edwards was outrighted off the roster, reports Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News. It’s not clear if the veteran reliever will spend the final few days of the season in the minors or elect free agency and look ahead to next season.

September 19: The Rangers announced that right-hander Carl Edwards Jr. has been designated for assignment. That’s the corresponding move to open a roster spot for right-hander Tyler Mahle’s reinstatement from the 60-day injured list, a move that was reported earlier this week.

Edwards, 34, was selected to the roster just under two weeks ago. He made two appearances for the Rangers and tossed three scoreless innings, though in fairly low leverage scenarios when the club was trailing.

It’s been a bit of a nomadic year for Edwards. He signed with the Tigres de Quintana Roo of the Mexican League in March but then was able to get a minor league deal from the Angels a few weeks later. He was called up by the Halos in late April but was designated for assignment after just three days on the roster. He cleared waivers, elected free agency and went back to Quintana Roo to rejoin the Tigres. The Rangers then gave him a minor league deal in July.

Around all those transactions, he has a 4.50 earned run average in six big league innings and a 3.38 ERA in 74 2/3 Mexican League innings. He has also logged 50 2/3 minor league innings with a 4.44 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 54.9% ground ball rate.

With the trade deadline having passed, he’ll be on waivers in the coming days. There isn’t likely to be much interest. The season has barely a week remaining and Edwards wouldn’t be playoff eligible with any claiming club. He’s an impending free agent, so there’s no long-term benefit to a claim. If he clears waivers, he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

MLB Competition Committee Approves Automated Ball-Strike System For 2026 Season

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7:33pm: Major League Baseball’s Joint Competition Committee voted 9-2 to approve the ABS challenge system, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. All six owners and three of the four players voted in favor of the change. One of the players and the lone umpire on the committee voted against.

12:52pm: As expected, the ABS challenge system has been approved, per an MLB announcement.

11:50am: Major League Baseball’s Joint Competition Committee will meet today to vote on the implementation of the Automated Ball-Strike system for the 2026 season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The 11-person committee — comprised of six owners, four players and one umpire — is expected to approve the ABS system for next year.

It’ll be a radical shift to the game’s identity — one that many fans feel is overdue but many others oppose with fervor. The strike zone will not be fully automated if and when the ABS system is approved. Rather, the challenge system that has been used in the minor leagues, during spring training and during this year’s All-Star Game will be in place.

Under the incoming ABS system, any pitcher, catcher or hitter will be able to tap his helmet or cap to signify his desire to challenge a ball or strike call from the home plate umpire. Teams are afforded two challenges per game but are only docked a challenge if it is unsuccessful. Once a team has two unsuccessful challenges, they’ll be out of challenges for the remainder of the game. In theory, there’s no limit to the number of successful challenges a team could go through in a game. Challenges must come immediately after a ball/strike call is made; the dugout cannot have the team’s replay coordinator review the pitch and call for a challenge 10 to 15 seconds after the pitch was delivered, for instance. The challenge result will be shown on the on the scoreboard immediately after a challenge is granted.

For many players, this system will be second-nature. The ABS system was first implemented in the low minors back in 2021. It’s been standard at the Triple-A level since 2022. More veteran players got their first taste of it during spring training 2025 and will have all of the 2026 spring schedule to acclimate to the changes. As with any notable change, there will be some hurdles and probably some hiccups in the adoption, but the league’s hope is surely that — much like the pitch clock and, to a lesser extent, instant replay — it will quickly become a fairly seamless integration.

Tylor Megill Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Mets right-hander Tylor Megill underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com was among those to relay the news. Megill will miss the remainder of this year and likely all of 2026 as well. It was reported last week that he had been recommended for the procedure.

The news doesn’t come as a shock. He has been on the injured list since June due to right elbow inflammation. He had begun a rehab assignment in August but was shut down in early September due to renewed soreness. As mentioned, he was recommended for surgery a few days ago, though he was still considering other options. It seems he couldn’t find a viable non-surgical alternative and decided to go under the knife.

The 30-year-old has generally put up decent numbers for the Mets over the years. In total, he has thrown 409 2/3 innings over five seasons, allowing 4.46 earned runs per nine innings. He has struck out 24.3% of batters faced, given out walks at a 9.3% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 42% pace.

His volume of major league work has been capped by a few factors. The Mets have often had him just outside the top five of their depth chart, meaning he has been shuttled to Triple-A and back a number of times, depending on the overall health of the staff. He has also had a few injury absences of his own, including shoulder strains in both 2022 and 2024. He has only once surpassed 90 innings in a big league season and has never hit 130.

This year was Megill’s first arbitration season and he is making a salary of $1.975MM. He can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. He’ll be in line for a raise for next year, though he’ll be a bit limited by the fact that he only made 14 starts this season. The Mets could tender him a contract, perhaps bumping him into the $3MM range, speculatively speaking. They wouldn’t get anything in return for that investment in 2026, as the odds of him returning late in 2026 would be very low, but they could then keep him around for 2027 at about the same price.

They will have a few weeks to decide if they think Megill’s 2027 worth that kind of multi-year investment. In addition to the money, they will have to think about the roster ramifications. There’s no IL between the World Series and the start of spring training. If they want to keep paying Megill over the next year-plus with the plan of having him be a part of the 2027 club, he would have to take up a roster spot through this winter. He could then be put back on the 60-day IL during the 2026 season, though he would have to retake a roster spot again in the 2026-27 offseason.

Regardless of that decision, he won’t be part of the club’s rotation plans for the next year. The Mets will go into this offseason with their potential 2026 starting group including David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea and Christian Scott.

Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images

Lane Thomas Undergoes Season-Ending Foot Surgery

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Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas underwent foot surgery to address his plantar fasciitis this morning and will be out of action for three to four months. Zack Meisel of The Athletic was among those to relay the news. Thomas is already on the 15-day injured list. The Guardians could move him to the 60-day IL if they need to open a 40-man roster spot, though they currently have a vacancy there already. Thomas will be a free agent at season’s end.

Thomas, now 30, was acquired from the Nationals at the 2024 deadline. He had a good run in Washington but his production almost immediately took a downturn after coming to Cleveland. Over the 2021 through 2023 seasons, he stepped to the plate 1,436 times for the Nats and hit 52 home runs. That helped him produce a .258/.317/.446 slash line and 108 wRC+ for that span. He also stole 32 bases and spent time in all three outfield positions.

He was largely producing at that same rate in 2024. At the time of the trade, he had a line .253/.331/.407 and a 107 wRC+. He had already stolen 28 bases even though it was only late July. The Guardians sent prospects Alex Clemmey, José Tena and Rafael Ramirez to Washington in order to add Thomas for the stretch run. Unfortunately, he slashed just .209/.267/.390 the rest of the way for an 84 wRC+. He was striking out at a 21.1% clip before the deal but that jumped to 34.8% after.

He did get a nice finish, as the Guards made it to the ALCS, with Thomas slashing .222/.349/.417 for a 124 wRC+ in ten postseason games. He hit two playoff home runs, including a massive grand slam off Tarik Skubal, as seen in this video from MLB.com.

The Guardians tendered him a contract for 2025, his final year of arbitration control, with the two sides agreeing to a $7.825MM salary. His name popped up in some offseason trade rumors but he stayed on the roster.

Unfortunately, it has turned into a lost season for Thomas. He landed on the IL in April due to a right wrist bone bruise. That stint lasted a month but he returned to the IL about a week later due to his right foot plantar fasciitis. He came off the IL in mid-June but was back there due to the same issue in early July. Around the IL stints, he only got into 39 games this year and put up an awful .160/.246/.272 line in those contests.

The Guards have made an unbelievable charge to thrust themselves back into the playoff mix but probably had a good idea that Thomas wasn’t going to be helping them, even with a deep postseason run. It was reported earlier this month that surgery and a three-month recovery period was a possibility. That has now been confirmed, so the Guards will go into the final games of the regular season with an outfield mix consisting of Steven Kwan, George Valera, Ángel Martínez, C.J. Kayfus, Daniel Schneemann, Jhonkensy Noel and Petey Halpin.

For Thomas, it’s unfortunate timing for him to have this injury-marred season. He is now about to become a free agent for the first time in his career. If he had hit the open market on the heels of one of his previous seasons, he could have had a nice level of interest thanks to his combination of decent offense, glovework and baserunning. Instead, he’ll be a big question mark after this challenging season, now punctuated by this surgery. Given his timeline, perhaps he will focus on rehabbing with the plan of holding some kind of showcase to demonstrate his health to interested clubs in the new year.

Photo courtesy of David Richard, Imagn Images

Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?

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This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.

A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.

That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.

While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.

Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi’s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.

If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.

How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:

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