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Nutting, Coonelly On Pirates’ Payroll, Outlook

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Pirates owner Bob Nutting had some interesting comments on payroll and other matters in a recent chat with reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Club president Frank Coonelly also opined on those topics, as covered by Nubyjas Wilborn of the Post-Gazette. Those pieces contain a wealth of worthwhile information and observations, but we’ll touch upon a few highlights here:

  • As ever, the low-budget Bucs drew scrutiny for their finances. Despite nearly reaching $100MM in Opening Day payrolls in recent seasons, the club is presently hovering in the range of $70MM for the 2019 season. That downward movement in spending led Nutting to issue the money quote of the day: “We need to focus on the things we believe are controllable.” While that’s a dubious claim on some levels, Nutting explained that he believes “payroll scale and range, broadly, is not controllable.” As Brink notes, though, it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue, as the team’s ability to generate local income is dependent in some part upon its on-field investment.
  • Nutting unsurprisingly demurred on details, particularly relating to the question whether attendance dips were responsible for pulling down the payroll. He focused instead on the concept that the club is “always going to have limitations” and simply needs to “maximize the impact of every dollar” that is allocated to payroll. There was a hint that GM Neal Huntington could have some cash stashed in his back pocket. Nutting said that the long-time baseball ops leader “always has to have some room to work,” seemingly indicating that was the case at present.
  • Coonelly put something of a different shine on things, saying that fulfilling a need “to get younger, more dynamic and more athletic” left the organization with a large number of pre-arbitration players, the presence of whom “explains our payroll.” As to concerns about how some of the roster spots were being filled (in particular, shortstop), Coonelly noted that “every established player in the big leagues was a player who had to establish themselves at some point.” That’s true enough in the abstract, though surely some would quibble on the details as pertains to some players. If youth is to account for the notably meager payroll, it won’t provide any excuses on the field. Coonelly said without equivocation: “My expectations are that the Pirates will win the NL Central.”
  • Paying market rates to established big leaguers obviously is not part of the formula in Pittsburgh. But Nutting did offer some guidance on how the club is spending some of the $50MM it took home as its cut of the MLB Advanced Media sale. The organization intends to double the scale of its facility in the Dominican Republic, helping to facilitate a pipeline of affordable young talent. That sort of investment won’t boost present big leaguers — quite the contrary, perhaps. It’s of greater concern when viewed through the lens of the international changes instituted in the latest collective bargaining agreement, which place hard caps on the bonuses that can be paid to the very same players the Pirates are investing heavily in wooing and developing.
  • Nutting did note that he would like to see some changes in the amateur intake system, however. Just what that might look like isn’t clear, but the Bucs owner suggested that minor-league earnings are in need of some corrections. As Brink quoted him on Twitter: “It’s time, and it’s past due, to take a serious, fresh look at how those are being handled.”

 

Giants Sign Cameron Maybin

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FEBRUARY 22: via TwitterThe deal would pay Maybin $1.75MM in the majors and has $250K in plate appearance-based incentives, per Baggarly ().

FEBRUARY 17: Maybin has joined the Giants, Maria Guardado of MLB.com tweets.

FEBRUARY 16: Per Andrew Baggarly and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants are “finalizing” an agreement to bring outfielder Cameron Maybin to Spring camp as a non-roster invitee.

Maybin, 32 in April, has spent time with four teams over the last two seasons, dropping an identical 88 wRC+ in each. Mired for the last three seasons in fourth-outfielder limbo, the former first-rounder has seen his once-vaunted center-field defense decline sharply with age. In nearly 2,800 innings at the position since the beginning of 2015, the longtime MLB vet has posted -26 DRS, though his numbers did normalize a bit in the last two seasons.

Rushed to the big leagues at the ripe age of 20, Maybin was quickly shipped in the Miguel Cabrera trade to Miami, where he never quite found his footing at the plate. A cross-country swap to San Diego offered respite, and Maybin’s 105 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR 2011 season precipitated a 5 year, $25MM extension for the young outfielder. Tough times followed, though, and the Friars cut their losses just three seasons in.

The then-29-year-old looked to turn a corner in 2016, when he slashed .315/.383/.418 for Detroit in part-time play, though his BABIP (.383) was hardly congruent with his hard-hit rate (24.7%), and he again faced regression the next season. All told, Maybin has slashed a respectable .254/.322/.368 (92 wRC+) in 3,848 lifetime MLB plate appearances, which mirrors closely his Steamer projection (92 wRC+) for the upcoming season.

The Giants would figure to have a place for Maybin in center, as the weak side of a Steven Duggar platoon, but the up-for-grabs outfield, the sloppiest projected crop in years by the bay, could align with him in a full-time role at either corner. Either way, he’ll jostle with a veritable grab-bag of candidates, including Gerardo Parra, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, Chris Shaw, John Andreoli, Cesar Puello, Mike Gerber, Craig Gentry, Drew Ferguson, and Anthony Garcia, for any number of roles. ZiPS, interestingly, projects Ferguson, the Rule-5 selection, and Garcia, the longtime Cardinal farmhand, to post the highest WAR totals of any Giants outfielders in the upcoming season.

Bryce Harper Meeting With Phillies Owner John Middleton

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8:32pm: There is a meeting, Heyman tweets, but the matter of Harper’s destination has yet to be decided. Other teams are still involved at this point.

8:14pm: Private planes and visits to Las Vegas have featured prominently throughout the courtship of free agent outfielder Bryce Harper, and that’s true again tonight. Phillies owner John Middleton — or, at least, his jet — is currently gracing the tarmac in Harper’s hometown, a source tells Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (Twitter link).

“Team Bryce” (presumably, the player, his wife, his agent Scott Boras, and others) is also in Sin City at the moment, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). That makes it easy to imagine a forthcoming late-night rendezvous between representatives of the open market’s most willing spender and its biggest star — though Heyman adds that Middleton appears to be on his own, without president Andy MacPhail or GM Matt Klentak.

Of course, we’ve yet to hear any specific indication that a meeting is in the works. At this stage of the proceedings, though, even the (seemingly strong) possibility warrants close attention. Harper, after all, took center stage when Manny Machado recently signed a ten-year, $300MM pact with the Padres. He was joined in the spotlight by the Phils, who came in third in the bidding for Machado after entering the winter with expectations of landing a superstar.

These sides have held an in-person pow-wow already, back in early January. That was perhaps more of a meet-and-great. It’s fair to wonder whether a repeat visit is designed to finalize agreement on what promises to be a very large contract. Middleton and Boras combined last winter to deliver Jake Arrieta to his new home on a private jet; it could be they’re making similar arrangements now.

The market developments have remained mysterious since Machado reportedly agreed to terms. Word emerged (see here and here) that the Phillies felt in command, with the Giants still involved, the Padres trying to see if they could somehow finagle a stunning double-play, and the White Sox bowing out of contention. Today, the Nationals seemingly indicated they were on the sidelines.

Valuing A Chris Sale Extension

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As he closes in on his 30th birthday and the start of his tenth season of action in the big leagues, Chris Sale (through his reps at Jet Sports Management) is engaged in at least some level of discussion with the Red Sox regarding an extension. The upcoming season is the final year of control under the deal Sale originally signed with the White Sox, adding some impetus to discussions.

It’s a fascinating situation to consider, owing to a variety of considerations. From a narrative perspective, the club’s whiff on Jon Lester years ago provides obvious fodder for comparisons. And an otherwise quiet winter from the defending World Series champs also makes for an intriguing backdrop.

The really interesting part, though, is the valuation itself. Starting pitchers have found a fair bit of success at prying monster deals from clubs entering a walk year. Clayton Kershaw’s original extension (seven years, $215MM plus opt-out) is the largest, but Stephen Strasburg’s recent $175MM deal also makes for a notable recent data point. Both of those pitchers were more youthful than Sale, but Justin Verlander’s second extension (which added five years and $140MM to his existing deal) was signed at a comparable age point (and two seasons in advance of his free agency).

That’s not to say that any of those particular deals really looks to be a perfect comp for Sale. Rather, they go to show that Sale can and should be looking for a contract that values his would-be free agent seasons at their anticipated market value.

On the other hand, there’s also no small amount of risk to be priced in here. That was the case with those other contracts, to be sure, but in this case the team will no doubt be particularly wary. After all, Sale missed five starts last year with still-mysterious shoulder issues. Though he’s said not to have exhibited structural problems, he showed some potentially worrisome velocity changes (with a correspondingly wandering release point) last year.

Both the team and Sale himself surely know quite a bit more than we do about his health. Certainly, his overall track record is one of excellent durability. While Sale’s funky delivery and big velocity readings have long led to predictions of physical ailments, he averaged 30 starts and 205 frames annually from 2012 through 2017.

Whatever the health risk may be relative to other pitchers, there’s little denying that Sale’s recent performance track record is quite free of red flags. All told, Sale has a 2.89 ERA in nearly 1500 career MLB innings and currently sits as the all-time leader in K/9 and K/BB ratio.

Importantly, too, he was in top form last year. Sale was deployed judiciously in the 2018 postseason but did record 24 strikeouts in 15 1/3 frames. Before that, he handled 158 regular-season innings, over which he allowed just 37 earned runs on 102 hits and 34 walks while racking up a whopping 237 strikeouts. When you smooth out the ups and downs in the radar readings, Sale threw harder overall last year than he ever has as a starter (95.7 mph average four-seamer). He also generated more swinging strikes than ever before (15.8%).

Those facts seem to distinguish Sale from Kershaw, who recently provided another notable contractual point to consider. The Dodger star’s new deal was hammered out in a near-open-market scenario, in the window before he had to decide whether to opt out of the final two years and $65MM of the aforementioned contract. The sides came up with a rather unique arrangement: three years, $93MM, with $12MM in total incentives that are achievable in full if Kershaw is at full health throughout the deal. Kershaw turns 31 in March, just before his new deal begins, so that contract covers almost the exact same age period as Sale’s next contract will. Not unlike Sale, Kershaw missed a few outings last year but still generated impressive results. Unlike Sale, Kershaw has exhibited more significant and long-lasting concerns in terms of his stuff and peripherals. The Dodger stalwart averaged 162 innings annually in the three seasons preceding his deal, with a series of back issues limiting his availability, tamping down his velocity, and reducing him from the game’s best pitcher to “merely” one of its best.

In the Kershaw scenario, it seems fair to say that the Dodgers mostly took a health discount by limiting the length of the commitment and including a hefty, easily achievable, but health-dependent incentives structure. It’s the kind of contract we might have expected, in the not-so-distant past, for an outstanding pitcher of an older age. That Kershaw took it at a relatively youthful stage is testament both to the level of concern with his long-term outlook and perhaps also the newfound market commitment of many teams to avoid obligating payroll space too far into the future (particularly for players in their mid-30s).

It seems easy to say that Sale won’t need to settle for the Kershaw deal to get something done. The latter has had the more impressive overall career, but his recent red flags are impossible to ignore. Still, it’s an interesting general scenario to contemplate when imagining what a deal could look like.

How’s it look for players who hit free agency under more favorable circumstances? The approach long has been to chase the biggest and lengthiest deal on the open market. David Price ($217MM) and Max Scherzer ($210MM) were each a bit younger when they secured their seven-year mega-deals — both turned 31 during the first seasons of their new contracts — than Sale will be when he hits the open market. Zack Greinke, the only other pitcher to top $200MM, turned 32 just before reaching free agency, so he was a fair bit older. He got six years and $206.5MM, easily setting a Major League record (which he still holds) with an average annual value north of $34MM.

There’s little question that Sale could position himself for massive earnings in the 2019-20 offseason with a performance that mirrors his 2018 in quality and his prior career in durability. Sale could be joined by some big names on the open market, but he almost surely possesses the greatest earning upside of any possible free-agent starter. Price’s total guarantee and Greinke’s AAV marks both seem theoretically achievable, though it’s arguable whether that kind of coin will still be available in today’s market. Even if we could accurately gauge Sale’s true earning ceiling, which would depend upon quite a few market factors, reaching it represents only one of several conceivable scenarios. With something less than full health, or declines in velocity and/or effectiveness, Sale’s earning power would obviously begin to slide.

So, where might we anticipate the price tag landing in extension talks? Sale will earn $15MM in 2019 regardless of any new deal, so we’ll consider only the future seasons. Presumably, the Red Sox will look for some kind of discount (in salary, years, or both) to account for the health uncertainty — both that of any pitcher separated from free agency by a full season and whatever added questions come with Sale. Might the Boston organization seek to cabin the length of the contract? Or would it be amenable to a lengthier deal that spreads the guarantee over a longer span, thus reducing the annual luxury tax hit? And what about Sale’s own preferences?

Supposing the Sox are willing to go to Greinke levels on the AAV but not on the term, it’s possible to imagine a five-year extension in the range of $175MM. That figure would also match the recent Strasburg deal, albeit over a shorter duration (his was for seven years) — arguably a fair result for a more accomplished and consistent, but also less youthful starter. But is that really the most sensible approach? Perhaps the team would rather stretch things out, even if it means committing to additional seasons. Adding six years at $190MM would not greatly expand the Red Sox’ overall commitment. For one thing, it’s reasonable to anticipate that Sale will still be a useful-enough pitcher at the end of that deal to warrant his salary. There’s a risk he won’t be, certainly, but there’s also real upside (see, e.g., Verlander) as well as the promise of continued inflation driving down the effective price.

Interestingly, the club’s luxury tax situation also increases the value of spreading the AAV. Let’s do a bit of math to see how this looks. Sale’s original extension, signed before the 2013 season, will have paid him a total of $59MM over seven seasons, but option years are treated as one-off seasons for purposes of the competitive balance tax calculation. That means that Sale’s hit to the Sox’ books this year will be his current salary of $15MM. Modifying his forward-looking contract rights, though, would change that number by adding the new years and dollars and then re-running the AAV. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined recently with regard to a hypothetical re-signing of Craig Kimbrel, any new money added to the Boston luxury ledger is going to be taxed at a hefty rate. A new deal for Sale would not only trigger a drop in draft placement but would also mean a big tax bill increase. You can find the details there; for our purposes, since a new deal would certainly be of sufficient magnitude to push the club into the top tax bracket, the Red Sox would pay 75 cents for every additional dollar of AAV they take on. And that’s just for the 2019 season. If the organization continues to exceed the luxury line, it’ll keep getting hit with bills — every one of which will be impacted by Sale’s AAV.

It’s not hard to see how adding a season or even two at a relatively lesser salary might begin to make sense, particularly when one includes the concept of the time-value of money. Here are a few scenarios to kick around (all dollars in millions):

Extension Years Extension Money Extension AAV Cumulative AAV 2019 Tax Increase
5 $150 $30.00 $27.50 $7.83
5 $175 $35.00 $31.67 $10.96
6 $160 $26.67 $25.00 $5.96
6 $180 $30.00 $27.86 $8.10
6 $192 $32.00 $29.57 $9.39
6 $207 $34.42 $31.64 $10.94
7 $175 $25.00 $23.75 $5.02
7 $200 $28.57 $26.88 $7.37
7 $217 $31.00 $29.00 $8.96

These are, of course, largely random price points (some of which connect to contract comps noted above, others of which are simply round numbers). But they serve to show how much cash the Red Sox could in theory be forced to take on right now if they really want to avoid paying Sale past his mid-30s. That hit, as noted already, would potentially be repeated in future seasons in which the club nears or passes the luxury line. Those considerations may well factor into the organization’s approach, whatever level of health-related discount is deemed necessary to make a contract appealing.

If a lengthier, more spread-out deal might make greater sense for the ballclub, what about Sale? As my colleague Steve Adams reminded me, the southpaw hinted recently that he could go looking to set new high-water marks of some kind. As Sale put it: “You want to do right by the guys who are coming next year, two years, 10 years down the road because you kind of set the bar and the next guy who comes along either gets to that bar or sets it a little more.”

If he intends to raise the bar in an extension scenario, one full season removed from the open market, there’s no realistic way he’s going to top the line set by Price. Breaking the overall guarantee record (seven years, $217MM) would almost certainly mean pitching in 2019 before negotiating his next contract. On the other hand, Sale could take aim at Greinke’s AAV mark. In that case, though, it’s awfully tough to see the Red Sox making a commitment past five additional seasons (if they’re willing to make such a deal in the first place).

Perhaps Sale’s bar-raising sentiments shouldn’t be taken too literally. He no doubt appreciates that an extension situation necessarily involves other considerations (and lacks competitive bidding). A hurler of his age reaching the $200MM mark in new money, say, would represent a notable achievement even if it came with a relatively less-impressive AAV and didn’t really set any recognizable records. In terms of maximizing his own career earnings (without taking the risk of first pitching another season), there’s not a whole lot of downside to going for the biggest total guarantee possible at this stage, even if it effectively means taking a cheaper valuation for the last season or two of the new contract. Even if Sale were to hit the open market on the upswing in his later years — as may well occur next winter for Verlander — the additional earning ceiling at that point would be fairly limited, at least in terms of contract length.

If there’s a deal to be made here, then, the sweet spot could actually be on a longer term than might be anticipated at first glance. As the foregoing discussion shows, though, there’s also quite a lot for both sides to think about — and quite a lot we don’t know. The major wild card, perhaps, is the sides’ respective levels of concern with Sale’s shoulder. It’ll be fascinating to see how things proceed if Sale and the Red Sox end up making a concerted effort over the coming weeks to work out a deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mike Soroka Experiencing Shoulder Discomfort

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Braves righty Mike Soroka has been shut down for an as-yet-undetermined stretch after experiencing discomfort in his throwing shoulder, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com was among those to report. It seems he will not require an MRI at this time, with the suspicion being that he is just dealing with tendinitis.

The hope had been that Soroka would be able to participate fully in camp after indications were that he was throwing without pain in the run-up to Spring Training. He had shown quite a bit of promise in a brief MLB run in 2018, but missed much of the season owing to shoulder problems.

As things have shaken out, there’s no real path for Soroka to battle for an Opening Day rotation spot. Instead, per skipper Brian Snitker, the club’s training staff is “just going to slow play him now.” Soroka will get some rest and then be watched carefully as he attempts to ramp things back up.

The hope at this point is that it’s just a blip for the talented 21-year-old. Snitker says that “everything checks out fine” from a structural perspective and that Soroka’s “strength is fine.” There’s even hope that Soroka will be back on a throwing program within the week, per the manager.

Braves fans can breathe easy for the time being, then. So long as Soroka bounces back and doesn’t experience further discomfort, he’ll still be available for almost all of the 2019 campaign. And the club still has a few other exciting youngsters, led by Touki Toussaint, ready to step into the fifth spot in the rotation. Of course, it’s also not the most comforting thing to hear after all that Soroka went through last year.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the injury could well hurt Soroka’s pocketbooks. Once healthy, he will likely be optioned, stopping the clock on his service time. He picked up 153 days last year, much of it on the disabled (now injured) list, which would set him up for future Super Two qualification unless he spends a decent portion of the upcoming campaign in the minors.

Clayton Kershaw Battling Early Arm Issue

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The Dodgers have shut down star hurler Clayton Kershaw indefinitely, manager Dave Roberts tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The venerable southpaw is dealing with an unspecified health issue that Roberts would describe only as an “arm kind of thing.”

Initial signals from the organization are that there’s nothing to worry about at this point. Kershaw says he’s “just going to take a few days right now” and adds that he expects to resume throwing in short order, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County-Register tweets.

In Roberts’s view, too, this is just an early pause “to just kind of step away, give him a couple days.” That said, he acknowledged that he “can’t say right now” just when Kershaw will be ready to ramp back up.

Clearly, there’s no reason to rush to judgment about what might be going on here. Given Kershaw’s recent health history, there’s also some reason for added concern. Both men were rather circumspect about the underlying issue, declining to clarify whether Kershaw’s prior back and shoulder problems were involved. For the time being, then, we’ll just have to wait to see how things progress and await further word.

MLB Announces Implementation Of Pitch Clock For Spring Training Games

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Major League Baseball has formally announced the implementation of a 20-second pitch clock to be tested during Spring Training games. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported minutes prior to the announcement that it’d be made today. Per the league’s announcement, there has been no decision made regarding the potential implementation of the pitch clock during the upcoming regular season, though Passan tweeted that there is a “very real possibility” of that happening.

Early in Spring Training, as players adjust to the latest pace-of-play tactic put in place by commissioner Rob Manfred, there will not be any ball or strike penalties for pitch-clock violations. By the second week of games, umpires will begin to issue warnings, and eventually, umps “will be instructed to begin assessing ball-strike penalties for violations.”

Notably, the pitch clock comes with numerous restrictions. It does not apply to the first pitch of a plate appearance, and the pitcher need only start his motion before the clock expires rather than deliver the actual pitch. Hitters will be required to be in the batter’s box by the time there are five seconds remaining on the clock, and the clock will reset when the pitcher receives the ball back from the catcher.

On pickoff plays, the clock will reset when the pitcher once again receives the ball from the infielder to whom he threw. The clock will also reset if pitchers feint a pickoff motion or step off the rubber with a runner on base. Mound visits will also cause the clock to reset. If an umpire calls or grants time, the pitch clock will not be used on the following pitch (unless time was called to swap out a ball thrown in the dirt).

Manfred has the ability to unilaterally implement the pitch clock for the 2019 regular season even if he does not come to an agreement on its implementation with the players’ union. However, Passan notes — as does today’s release announcing the clock — that the league will continue to negotiate with the players in search of an agreement on the matter.

Whether the clock is implemented in 2019 or not, today’s announcement serves as a harbinger for change in 2020 and beyond. Manfred has made improving the pace-of-play one of the focal points of his tenure as the league’s commissioner and has regularly put initiatives into place — most recently limiting the number of mound visits allowed per game and instituting automatic intentional walks. The pitch clock would be a more dramatic measure — one with far greater potential to impact the outcome of games — than other recent changes, however.

That said, while it’d be a change requiring adjustment for many established big leaguers, a pitch clock has been in place in the minor leagues dating back to the 2015 season. Because of that, it’d be a familiar regulation to the next wave of prospects who make their way to the big leagues. In theory, the pitch clock should be largely unnoticed once the league grows accustomed to its existence — be it this coming season or in the future — though there’ll surely be some early growing pains with the new system. And, of course, the move will likely be unpopular among most longstanding baseball fans; while part of Manfred’s aim in accelerating the pace of play is to grow the general appeal of baseball, there is of course a sizable (and oft-vocal) portion of the existing fanbase that does not want to see any such changes put into place.

Giants Claim Hanser Alberto, Designate Jake Barrett For Assignment

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Infielder Hanser Alberto is on the move once again, as the Orioles announced Friday that he’s been claimed off waivers by the Giants. In a corresponding move, the Giants announced that they’ve designated right-hander Jake Barrett for assignment.

San Francisco will be the fourth organization for Alberto this offseason, as the versatile 26-year-old has gone from the Rangers to the Yankees to the Orioles via the waiver circuit. Baltimore designated him for assignment earlier this week upon claiming lefty Josh Osich off waivers from the Giants. In some respects, the pair of move effectively amounts to a trade of the two assets.

Alberto, who has experience at second base, shortstop and third base, is a .309/.330/.438 hitter in 1000 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s never managed to carry that production over to the MLB level, however, as evidenced by a meek .192/.210/.231 slash through 192 MLB plate appearances (all coming with the Rangers).

Barrett was only acquired by the Giants earlier this month. New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already shown early in his tenure that he’ll carry some of the trends that have been characteristic of the Dodgers over to his new club. Namely, he’s been unafraid to continually shuffle players in and out of the final spot on the Giants’ 40-man roster, regularly claiming players who’ve been designated for assignment only to try to pass them through waivers once again. In the case of outfielder John Andreoli, that worked out nicely, and San Francisco will seemingly hope that a similar situation plays out with Barrett.

The 27-year-old Barrett has a career 4.05 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate in 93 1/3 MLB innings — all coming with the Diamondbacks. He’s struggled since turning in an strong rookie season back in 2016, but he did average better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched over 53 1/3 frames in Triple-A last year.

White Sox, Ervin Santana Agree To Minor League Deal

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1:15pm: Santana’s contract comes with a $4.3MM base salary if he makes the roster, Heyman tweets. That’s an abnormally large base salary for a minor league pact and likely speaks to the interest that Santana had elsewhere. In essence, the White Sox gave Santana the opportunity to be guaranteed a rate that many would’ve expected him to command on a big league deal, but did so while delaying the need to make an immediate 40-man move.

10:52am: The White Sox and free-agent right-hander Ervin Santana have agreed to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports (via Twitter). The contract is pending a physical. Santana will head to Major League camp and compete for a spot in a thin rotation mix.

Santana, 36, has been a longtime divisional foe for the ChiSox, having spent the past four seasons leading the Twins’ rotation. The final season of his four-year, $55MM pact with Minnesota was almost entirely wiped out by surgery to repair a tendon in his right hand, however. That injury limited him to five starts and just 24 2/3 innings and led the Twins to decline a $14MM option over the righty.

Prior to the 2018 season, however, Santana was both a durable and high-quality workhorse. From 2016-17, Santana ranked 11th in the game in total innings pitched and also ranked 11th among qualified starters with a 3.32 ERA. In all, while his four-year deal with the Twins was marred by last year’s injury and a PED suspension in 2015, he worked to a 3.68 ERA with 7.1 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in 525 1/3 innings with Minnesota. When he was healthy and on the field, Santana was generally a quality option on the mound, making him a logical pick for the Sox — especially at this price point.

So long as he is healthy, it seems quite likely that Santana will break camp in Chicago’s rotation. Currently, the Sox are looking at Carlos Rodon, Ivan Nova, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito as the top four in their rotation. Santana will compete with Manny Banuelos and Dylan Covey, among others, in trying to secure that final starting job. Given that slate of rotation options, it’d rank as a surprise if a healthy Santana didn’t secure a place on the roster this spring.

Santana becomes the latest but perhaps most surprising veteran player to settle for a non-guaranteed pact in a second consecutive winter that has been unkind to veterans in their 30s. While last season was obviously a nightmare for Santana, he’d averaged 182 innings of 3.52 ERA ball from 2013-17 with the Royals, Braves and Twins.

Twins To Sign Marwin Gonzalez

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11:48am: The two sides have agreed to a two-year contract worth $21MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter).

11:45am: The Twins have agreed to a contract with free-agent infielder/outfielder Marwin Gonzalez, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Dan Hayes of The Athletic first connected the two sides yesterday. Gonzalez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Marwin Gonzalez | Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Gonzalez, 30 in March, emerged as one of MLB’s most versatile utility pieces over the past two seasons and played a major role in bringing the Astros to the 2017 World Series. The switch-hitter’s terrific .303/.377/.530 batting line that year regressed to .247/.324/.409 in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2018 results were weighed down by a sluggish start. Gonzalez carried a .612 OPS into June but rebounded to the tune of a .266/.343/.462 slash over the final four months, during which time he clubbed 12 of his 16 home runs. Overall, he’s posted a healthy .274/.349/.467 line with 39 homers, 59 doubles and three triples over his past 1067 plate appearances.

Known as much for his defensive versatility as anything else — agent Scott Boras dubbed him “Swiss G” early in the offseason — Gonzalez logged 150-plus innings at first base, second base, shortstop and in left field last year. He’s logged significant innings at all four infield spots over the past two seasons and has tallied more than 1000 innings in left field as well. He’s drawn plus marks for that work in left (+7 Defensive Runs Saved, +5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, +2 Outs Above Average) and has generally drawn solid marks for his glovework at first base, second base and third base in recent years (with defensive metrics being less fond of his defense at shortstop).

While Gonzalez won’t be in line to man one singular position on a regular basis, it’s likely that the Twins will mix him into the lineup on a near-regular basis over the next couple of seasons. He’ll provide the club with a high-quality means of keeping first baseman C.J. Cron, second baseman Jonathan Schoop, shortstop Jorge Polanco and third baseman Miguel Sano fresh. Gonzalez also seems likely to log some time in the outfield, and given that all three of Minnesota’s current outfielders — Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler — can play all three outfield slots, Gonzalez could be the first in line to get some outfield work when any of that trio is out of the lineup. In short, he’ll provide rookie manager Rocco Baldelli with an enormous amount of flexibility when mapping out his daily lineups. And, with Schoop a free agent at season’t end, Marwin could potentially give the Twins a regular option in 2020 if prospect Nick Gordon doesn’t adequately rebuild his stock this year.

The addition of Gonzalez will cost one of Ehire Adrianza or Willians Astudillo a spot on the active roster and potentially puts Adrianza’s spot on the 40-man roster in jeopardy. Like Gonzalez, Adrianza is a switch-hitting utility piece who played all over the infield and in left field last year, though his bat has never approached Gonzalez’s 2017-18 levels. Minnesota also has Ronald Torreyes on the 40-man roster under a non-guaranteed, split contract, though Torreyes has one minor league option remaining.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR pegged Gonzalez as a candidate to receive a four-year contract (at a lower annual rate of $9MM) given the fact that his versatility figured to create no shortage of demand throughout the league. Many pundits at the time — myself included — were surprised that Houston didn’t issue a $17.9MM qualifying offer to Gonzalez; while that’d be a huge price to pay for one season of his services, the thinking at the time was that he’d comfortably out-earn that sum on a three- or four-year pact, thus making him a safe bet to reject the deal and net the Astros a compensatory draft pick. In retrospect, the Astros’ decision not to do so looks quite prudent.

From a broader perspective, Gonzalez’s contract is in some ways indicative of the changing market landscape that has served as a source of consternation for both players and agents this winter. While his $10.5MM annual salary is quite large for a super-utility player, to be sure, Gonzalez’s ultimate guarantee was for half the length and under 40 percent of the total dollars the Cubs pledged to Ben Zobrist as he entered his age-35 season just three years ago. While Zobrist was a more established hitter and predicting that type of money for Gonzalez seemed overly aggressive even at the outset of free agency, few would’ve predicted such great disparity between their contracts. Gonzalez is roughly a half decade younger than Zobrist was at the time of his deal, after all.

While Gonzalez’s contract falls shy of what virtually any publication predicted for him entering the winter, that $10.5MM annual value is nonetheless robust, and he’ll have the chance to re-enter free agency at a relatively youthful age. A four-term deal at that point will be even less likely, but he’d certainly be a candidate to receive another strong annual value on a two- or possibly three-year pact if he maintains his recent level of production.

For the Twins, Gonzalez will join offseason newcomers Schoop, Cron and Nelson Cruz to a revamped lineup that figures to be more productive than it was in 2018. If the Twins are able to coax bounceback seasons out of some combination of Schoop, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, their offense will be among the more formidable groups in the American League. The team’s pitching staff could certainly use further augmentation, and it’s worth noting that a pair of prominent free-agent arms — Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel — remain unsigned. The extent to which the Twins are interested in either at present isn’t known, though they’ve at least been linked to Kimbrel in the past month.

Whether they ultimately come to terms with either (or acquire another pitching upgrade), it’s clear that Minnesota at least has the financial means to do so. The Twins’ payroll will still be shy of last year’s $128MM Opening Day mark, and they have fewer than $25MM committed to the 2020 roster.

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