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Latest On Yankees’ Offer To Aaron Judge

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The Yankees wasted little time in making a new offer to Aaron Judge following the commencement of the offseason, with general manager Brian Cashman revealing two weeks ago that the team had made an updated offer to the reigning American League MVP. Judge has since met with the Giants, who were also reported to be preparing an offer. The Dodgers are also a reported suitor. Details surrounding Judge’s free agency have been sparse thus far, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Yankees’ most recent offer was “in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million.” That’s not a final offer, and the Yankees could increase their numbers if the market necessitates, per the report.

It’s still a ballpark figure, but that general range could potentially give Judge the largest annual value ever secured by a position player. Mike Trout, who inked a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of a standing two-year, $66.5MM commitment with the Angels — currently holds that distinction at $36MM. (Max Scherzer’s $43.3MM AAV is the top mark overall.) Establishing a new AAV record among position players would surely be of interest to Judge, and if the Yankees are truly already in the $300MM ballpark, he’d at least be within striking distance of Bryce Harper’s record for the largest free-agent contract in history ($330MM).

As far as the timing of a potential deal for Judge, it seems as though one could come together in relatively quick fashion. Passan indicates that there’s an expectation a deal could be completed by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, which take place in San Diego from Dec. 4-7. That meshes with previous reporting from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who made similar suggestions on MLB Network when discussing Judge’s meeting with the Giants. SNY’s Andy Martino, meanwhile, writes that it would “be a mild surprise” if Judge doesn’t come away from next week’s meetings with an agreement in hand.

Wherever the present numbers stand, it’s long been clear that Judge’s bold bet on himself this past spring has paid off. Judge declined the Yankees’ best extension offer prior to the season, after which Cashman took the virtually unprecedented step of announcing the terms of the offer: seven years and $213.5MM. That contract would’ve begun with the 2023 season, so Judge appears to have already secured an extra year and upwards of $80-90MM in additional guarantees.

Roster Resource currently projects the Yankees at a bit more than $222MM in luxury obligations. An AAV in the $36-37MM range would bump that number to $258-259MM, setting the stage for a second consecutive season of paying CBT penalties.

As a second-time offender, the Yankees would owe a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the first threshold of $233MM, a 42% tax on the next $20MM spent, a 75% tax on the next $20MM and a 90% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Judge alone would put them into the second tier and come with a penalty of around $8-9MM, and any subsequent moves would be taxed heavily. The Yankees could change that calculus by finding a taker for Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks or a member (or members) of their arbitration class, but the team knows full well that the cost of an improved offer to Judge stretches well beyond the bottom-line numbers on the contract itself.

That improved offer, of course, comes on the heels of a historic season that saw Judge seamlessly deal with not only the pressure of the expectations set by rejecting more than $200MM but also the pressure of chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding mark of 61 home runs. Judge indeed set a new American League and Yankee standard when he belted his 62nd round-tripper of the season on Oct. 4. He finished off his MVP-winning campaign with a stunning .311/.425/.686 batting line — good for a 207 wRC+ that stands as the best offensive season in recent history. Barry Bonds was the last player to match or exceed that level, and prior to him, no qualified hitter had done so since Ted Williams in 1957. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract for Judge when ranking him atop our annual Top 50 free agent list.

MLB Sells Remaining BAMTech Share To Disney

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Major League Baseball has sold its 15% stake in the BAMTech streaming platform to the Walt Disney Company, the Associated Press reports. Disney paid the league $900MM to buy out MLB’s final share in BAMTech, according to filings with the SEC. Disney now owns the service completely.

BAMTech has its roots in the MLB Advanced Media platform, which was created back in 2000. MLB’s digital media arm has long been regarded as an industry leader that has generated strong revenues for the league. Disney had increasingly invested in BAMTech in recent years, purchasing a 75% share by 2017 in a deal that saw each MLB team receive roughly $50MM in additional revenue. The corporation bought out a 10% share owned by the National Hockey League last year for $350MM and completed the process with this month’s purchase from MLB.

The proceeds of the sale are expected to be distributed evenly among teams. As Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes, that represents a roughly $30MM windfall for each club. Whether that’ll lead teams to more freely invest in player payroll remains to be seen, although it’s a notable bump in revenue for organizations that could theoretically serve as a catalyst for an uptick in free agent spending.

At the end of October, commissioner Rob Manfred told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times that MLB earned just below $11 billion in revenue this year (Twitter link). That’s presumably slightly above pre-pandemic levels, as the league reported $10.7 billion in revenue back in 2019. MLB did not announce a revenue figure in either 2020 or ’21.

Carlos Estevez Drawing Wide Interest In Free Agency

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As teams scour the market for bullpen help, Carlos Estévez is emerging as a popular target. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week some teams view the right-hander as a potential closer and suggested he was finding a decent amount of interest. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported yesterday that seven teams had been in contact with his camp.

A career-long member of the Rockies, Estévez hit the open market for the first time this winter. He’s coming off a 3.47 ERA across 57 innings, a solid mark for a pitcher who spent half his games at Coors Field. The native of the Dominican Republic punched out a league average 23% of opponents against a slightly elevated 9.8% walk rate. Those are decent peripherals, although he only generated swinging strikes on a career-low 9% of his offerings.

While Estévez was a decent middle innings option in 2022, the appeal for teams lies more in the belief he could elevate his game outside the sport’s most hitter-friendly environment. He’s one of the league’s hardest throwers, averaging 97.5 MPH on a four-seam fastball that runs into triple digits at its best. He turned to that heater more than 70% of the time this past season, occasionally mixing in a slider against same-handed batters and a changeup against lefties. Each of his secondary offerings had success in their limited usage, and teams could certainly look to scale up how often he throws either pitch to pair with his high-velocity heater.

That kind of arsenal makes Estévez an intriguing target for teams, but his six-year tenure in Denver was mixed. He posted an ERA above 5.00 in three of his first four seasons. A 4.38 mark through 64 outings in 2021 was an improvement over much of his earlier work, but Estévez carried a career 4.85 ERA into this year. He posted a 5.17 ERA through this past season’s first half but was excellent down the stretch, limiting opponents to a .146/.206/.281 line while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine innings after the All-Star Break.

Estévez has a bit of closing experience, having picked up 11 saves in 2021. Colorado has otherwise used him in setup work, affording him a fair number of high-leverage assignments going back to 2020. He had decent results against hitters from both sides of the plate in 2022, but his 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed batters was far better than a 19.7% mark against southpaws. Clubs targeting him for a leverage role in the middle innings would presumably prefer to match him up against same-handed hitters when possible.

MLBTR forecasts a three-year, $21MM deal for Estévez, who turns 30 next month. Free agency has been slow to develop thus far, but there were a few early deals for relievers that possibly portend a strong market. The Mets made Edwin Díaz the first nine-figure reliever in league history, inking him to a five-year, $102MM pact shortly before free agency opened. The Padres followed up with a five-year guarantee of their own, retaining Robert Suarez for $46MM in a deal that allows him to opt out after 2025. Not long thereafter, Rafael Montero returned to the Astros on a three-year, $34.5MM contract that topped general expectations.

That series of early deals removed three of the top options from the market. Kenley Jansen and David Robertson are veterans with extensive closing experience, while Seth Lugo, Chris Martin, Adam Ottavino and Trevor May are among the productive setup types available from the right side.

NL Notes: Pirates, Santana, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Kahnle

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The Pirates’ signing of Carlos Santana was in part driven by the team’s belief that next year’s restriction on infield shifts will help to boost the veteran switch-hitter’s production, general manager Ben Cherington told reporters after finalizing the deal this week (link via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Beyond that, Santana’s reputation as a leader and mentor for younger players appealed to the club, as did a strong batted-ball profile that featured quality marks in metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and more.

At one year and $6.725MM, the Santana signing was somewhat remarkably the largest free-agent commitment given out by Cherington since he was hired to guide the Pirates’ latest rebuilding effort back in 2019. Cherington stressed there are other needs to address and that the Pirates, currently projected by Roster Resource to carry just a $54MM payroll, are hopeful of completing some additional deals.

A few more items out of the National League…

  • The Reds inked local product Luke Maile to a one-year contract, setting the stage for him to serve as Tyler Stephenson’s backup. However, general manager Nick Krall suggested after signing Maile the team isn’t closed off to the possibility of adding a third catcher to the big league roster (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “There is a chance,” Krall noted, pointing out that the addition of the universal designated hitter gives teams the flexibility to more easily work with three backstops. The Reds were reportedly in touch with Tucker Barnhart about a potential reunion before signing Maile, though there’s no indication they’re strongly pursuing him after coming to terms with Maile. Still, Stephenson missed significant time in 2022 with a broken thumb, a concussion and a broken collarbone, and he also has 147 innings of big league experience at first base. There’s some sense to bringing in another catcher — particularly if it’s someone who can handle multiple spots on the diamond to give the Reds some more flexibility.
  • The Phillies were dealt a tough blow last week with the revelation Bryce Harper required a full Tommy John procedure. The Phils announced Harper was expected to return as a bat-only option by the All-Star Break while playing the outfield again at some point in the second half. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski left open the possibility of an earlier return this week (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic) but suggested he didn’t want to project any kind of more optimistic timeline. “In my own mind, I’m looking at the All-Star break. Anything that’s before that is great,” Dombrowski said. The veteran executive downplayed the need for the Phils to add an outfielder in response to the surgery, pointing out that any pickup would lose his path to everyday playing time once Harper returned. The DH-only role would force Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly to flank center fielder Brandon Marsh, with righty-hitting Matt Vierling on hand as the fourth outfielder. Dombrowski suggested that while the Phils will be “open-minded” to the possibility of adding on the grass, “it’s not a priority for us.“
  • Adding to the bullpen is certainly a key objective for the Mets, who saw each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Trevor May hit free agency. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that New York is one of several teams to have looked into Tommy Kahnle, although he cautions it’s presently unclear how interested the Mets are in the free agent right-hander. Kahnle is an interesting upside play. He lost almost all of 2020-21 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and renewed arm inflammation cost him almost four months with the Dodgers this past season. Kahnle allowed only four runs in 12 2/3 innings when healthy enough to pitch, though, striking out 14 against three walks. The 33-year-old racked up swinging strikes at a massive 17.2% clip while leaning on his stellar changeup more than three-quarters of the time. Kahnle posted a 3.67 ERA with an elite 35.5% strikeout rate over 72 appearances with the Yankees in 2019, his most recent full season.

Guardians Showing Continued Interest In Sean Murphy

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The Guardians are among the teams in discussions with the A’s about Sean Murphy, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter). The backstop is one of the more frequent trade targets of the offseason, and Morosi suggests Oakland could complete a deal by the end of the Winter Meetings next week.

Murphy is of interest to virtually every team seeking catching help. He has been a quality hitter throughout his three-plus seasons in the big leagues, showing solid power and plate discipline with roughly average bat-to-ball skills. Murphy tallied a career-high 612 plate appearances this past season, hitting .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs and a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate.

While that may not be an eye-popping slash line at first glance, it marked well above-average production once one accounts for the depressed offensive environment around the game and Oakland’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark. By measure of wRC+, Murphy was 22 percentage points better than the average batter. Those numbers look even better when comparing Murphy to his peers behind the plate. Catchers overall mustered a putrid .228/.295/.368 line in 2022. Murphy ranked seventh at the position (among those with 300+ plate appearances) in on-base percentage and finished tenth in slugging.

In addition to that quality performance at the dish, the Wright State product is regarded as an excellent defensive backstop. Statcast consistently pegs him as an above-average pitch framer. The possibility for an electronic strike zone in 2024 or beyond could take pitch framing out of the sport, but Murphy also possesses an elite arm. He cut down 31.1% of attempted basestealers, well above the 25% league mark. Statcast credited him with a 1.89 second pop time (average time to throw to second base), the fourth-best mark among 72 catchers with 10+ throws. He was only charged with two passed balls despite playing more than 1000 innings behind the dish, a workload that trailed only that of J.T. Realmuto.

Murphy’s well-rounded game makes him one of the sport’s better catchers, and his trade appeal is only enhanced by his affordability. He’s eligible for arbitration for three more seasons, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.5MM salary in 2023. The 28-year-old will earn successive boosts over the next couple years, but his arbitration salaries will remain well below his open market value if he continues to perform at his recent level.

That window of affordable control means the A’s aren’t under urgent contractual or financial pressure to move him. However, Oakland also looks at least a year away from being able to contend for a Wild Card spot. The A’s tore down their roster over the 2021-22 offseason to cut costs, and they finished 2022 with an AL-worst 60-102 record. Murphy’s trade value will only dwindle alongside his remaining window of club control, and the A’s could seize the opportunity to move him for a massive return in the coming weeks or months.

Doing so would allow the A’s to give a full season of catching reps to top prospect Shea Langeliers. Acquired from the Braves in the Matt Olson trade last spring, Langeliers hit .283/.366/.510 through 92 games with Triple-A Las Vegas. He showed some power but also concerning strikeout and walk numbers in his first big league look late in the season. The former top ten draftee is regarded as a possible plus defender in his own right, and while the A’s could theoretically have Murphy and Lanegliers split catching and designated hitter duties, doing so would negate the defensive value of one of those players each game.

Cleveland places a premium on catcher defense, having turned primarily to Austin Hedges over the past few seasons. Hedges rivals Murphy defensively but offers virtually nothing with the bat. He’s coming off a .163/.241/.248 line and hit free agency at the end of the season. Cleveland could certainly look to bring him back, but acquiring Murphy would keep the club’s excellent defense intact while adding a possible middle-of-the-order bat. Murphy has even platoon numbers over the course of his career, but his right-handed bat would be an ancillary bonus for a Cleveland lineup that skews left-handed. The Guardians had a .646 OPS against southpaws this past season, a mark that topped only those of the Marlins and A’s.

As things currently stand, the only catchers on Cleveland’s 40-man roster are Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida. Each player made his MLB debut in 2022 and they have a combined 11 games of big league experience. Lavastida had a rough offensive showing in the upper minors and could fit better as a depth option.

Naylor, who turns 23 in February, is a more highly-regarded prospect who’s coming off a .257/.366/.514 line in 66 games at Triple-A Columbus. He could be a regular, but prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about his defense. At the very least, adding a veteran complement to that duo will be on the to-do list for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff. The Guardians could look to experiment with Naylor at other positions if they pull off a Murphy trade, and there’s also the possibility Cleveland includes him as part of the package they’re dangling to the A’s.

Yasiel Puig Changes Plea To Not Guilty In Gambling Case

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Just over two weeks ago, it was reported that Yasiel Puig pled guilty to lying to federal agents during an investigation into an illegal gambling operation. Now he has withdrawn from that plea agreement, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, changing his plea to not guilty. “I want to clear my name,” Puig said in a statement. “I never should have agreed to plead guilty to a crime I did not commit.”

The former big leaguer would have been eligible for probation and had agreed to pay a fine of at least $55,000 under the agreement. Having now withdrawn, Puig could face trial and a maximum sentence of five years in prison. “Significant new evidence” prompted the change, according to Keri Axel, Puig’s attorney. “We are prepared to publicly share that information in the appropriate forum and at the appropriate time,” Axel says.

The government alleges that Puig lost almost $300K on sports bets in the first half of 2019 but then lied to investigators over a Zoom call about it. “Mr. Puig, who has a third-grade education, had untreated mental-health issues, and did not have his own interpreter or criminal legal counsel with him,” Axel says, in relation to that Zoom call.

Puig played in the majors from 2013 to 2019 but there is no evidence in the plea agreement that he bet on baseball.

Mariners Sign Trevor Gott

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November 30: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Gott’s salary will be $1.2MM. The Mariners announced the deal shortly thereafter.

November 28: The Mariners are in agreement with reliever Trevor Gott on a one-year contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (on Twitter). Financial terms have not yet been reported. Gott is a Sports One Athlete Management client. Seattle’s 40-man roster count will jump to 38 once the deal is finalized.

Gott signed a somewhat surprising big league contract with the Brewers last offseason. He’d spent the entire 2021 campaign in Triple-A in the Giants organization, impressing the Milwaukee front office with a 31% strikeout rate at the top minor league level. Milwaukee jumped early in the offseason to add him, and he played a fairly significant role in their middle innings mix this past season.

The right-hander tallied 45 2/3 innings across 45 outings. The results were mixed, as he managed just a 4.14 ERA while surrendering eight home runs (1.58 per nine innings). He paired that with quality strikeout and walk marks, though, fanning a slightly above-average 23.7% of opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. He averaged around 95 MPH on his fastball and just north of 91 MPH on a cutter that served as his top secondary offering. Gott’s 10.5% swinging strike percentage and 43.7% grounder rate were right around the respective league marks, and he held right-handed hitters to a meager .200/.243/.333 line in 111 plate appearances.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Gott for a $1.4MM arbitration salary this winter, and the Brewers instead opted to non-tender him. His roughly average peripherals in 2022 were enough to land a 40-man spot with Seattle, and he figures to have an inside track at an Opening Day bullpen job. Gott has exhausted his minor league option years, so the M’s will either have to carry him on the big league roster or make him available via waivers.

With between four and five years of major league service time, Gott would again be eligible for arbitration next offseason if he holds his roster spot all year. He could be a multi-year bullpen pickup for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff if he performs well. Gott has also suited up for the Angels, Nationals and Giants in parts of seven seasons at the big league level.

The Mariners have an excellent bullpen that ranked sixth in the majors this past season in ERA at 3.33. Seattle relievers placed fifth with a 26.6% strikeout rate, and only the Orioles blew fewer leads in the late innings. That was a key part of the M’s winning 90 games for a second consecutive season and securing a Wild Card berth. Seattle subtracted from that with the deal that sent Erik Swanson to Toronto to bring in Teoscar Hernández, but they’ll bring back Andrés Muñoz, Diego Castillo, Matt Brash, Paul Sewald and Penn Murfee. Gott figures to work in lower-leverage spots, at least initially, to deepen the group available to manager Scott Servais.

Astros Notes: Abreu, Bagwell, Coaches

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For over a month now, it’s seemed like the White Sox would let Jose Abreu join a new organization and install Andrew Vaughn at first base. That became official this week, when Abreu signed with the Astros. However, the Sox didn’t just completely turn their back on him. “The White Sox made me an offer, it was a really good offer, but we’ll leave it at there,” Abreu said in his introductory press conference, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle.

Without any details, it’s hard to say exactly how hard the White Sox tried to retain Abreu, but it wasn’t enough either way. Abreu’s interest seems to have been quite wide, as it’s already been reported the Guardians made a three-year offer and he was also a top target of the Red Sox. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Padres also made a three-year offer while Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins were at the table as well. Regardless, what’s done is done and Abreu is an Astro now.

One person who was involved in the deal coming together was former Astro Jeff Bagwell, as Crane said he and assistant general manager Bill Firkus flew to flew to Miami to negotiate the deal with Abreu, per Rome. It was recently reported amid the departure of general manager James Click that Bagwell has been working with the front office in some capacity, sitting in on meetings and things of that nature. Bagwell is apparently one of Crane’s most trusted advisors and it seems his level of engagement has increased in Click’s absence. However, it doesn’t appear as though it will go much farther, as he insisted to members of the media that he does not want the open general manager position and wouldn’t interview for it if asked, per Rome.

In other Astros news, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports that Gary Pettis will return as the third base coach, with pitching coach Bill Murphy returning for 2023 as well. Pettis has been in that role since 2015 while Murphy just got his job title a year ago when Brent Strom parted ways with the club.

Mariners Looking For Left-Handed Hitting Second Baseman

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Over a year ago, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto publicly declared that the club would not be supplanting J.P. Crawford at shortstop. That was despite a huge class of free agent shortstops that existed at that time, including Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez.

Coming into this offseason, Dipoto stuck to his guns but said that his “great preference” would be to land a shortstop to play second base. This year features another strong class of free agent shortstops, with Correa on the market again, this time alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. However, they may be getting priced out of the bidding, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the expected prices of those shortstops are making it likelier that the M’s pursue a left-handed hitting second baseman to platoon with Dylan Moore.

The Mariners already had such a player in 2022, acquiring Adam Frazier from the Padres going into the year. He only had one year of club control remaining at the time and is now a free agent. The Mariners could always bring him back, but his bat took a step back this year. After hitting .305/.368/.411 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 113, he hit just .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81. Given that dip in production, the club might look for other options.

The other free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Robinson Cano missed all of 2021 due to a PED suspension, had a worse season than Frazier and is now 40 years old. Switch-hitters Cesar Hernandez and Jonathan Villar also both had worse years than Frazier in 2022. Perhaps the best fit would be Jace Peterson, who has hit .238/.337/.373 over the past three seasons for a wRC+ of 98. His defensive grades are strong overall though that’s mostly due to excellent work at third base, with his numbers more middling elsewhere.

Given Dipoto’s penchant for the trade market has earned him the nickname “Trader Jerry,” perhaps that is the most likely route the club would take to address the keystone. Rosenthal speculates Kolten Wong as a fit, which is a match that has already been reported in recent weeks. However, Rosenthal also suggests they could target cheaper and more controllable players, since Wong will make $10MM in 2023 and then become a free agent.

Rosenthal suggests the Rays would make for a good trading partner, since they have Jonathan Aranda, Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Brandon Lowe in their cluttered infield mix. All four of those players would come with risk in different ways. Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+. He’ll make $5.25MM next year and then $8.75MM in 2024, with two club options after that at $10.5MM and $11.5MM. The Rays are usually not afraid to make deals of their experienced players but trading Lowe now would be selling low, no pun intended.

As for Walls, Aranda and Brujan, all three carry the risk of not being established major leaguers. Walls has the most experience of the bunch, with 196 MLB games under his belt. However, he’s seemed overmatched in that time so far, hitting just .182/.281/.288 with defensive metrics split on how to view his work in the field. Brujan has 62 MLB games on his track record but his batting line is even worse, coming in at .150/.207/.231. Aranda’s played just 32 games so far and hit .192/.276/.321. All three players have stronger numbers in the minors but haven’t been able to bring them up to the bigs just yet.

If the Mariners don’t find anything to their liking in those mentioned names, they could perhaps turn their attentions to other speculative trade targets such as Cavan Biggio, Nolan Gorman, Tony Kemp or Nick Madrigal.

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