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Red Sox Notes: Weber, Verdugo, Moreland, JBJ

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Just what are the Red Sox thinking by tying up a 40-man roster spot on righty Ryan Weber? Chad Jennings of The Athletic explores (subscription link). The club sees Weber as a clear candidate to take the fifth starter’s role or at least to serve as valuable depth. (He can still be optioned.) While his stuff isn’t eye-popping, it seems the org’s talent evaluators were wowed by Weber’s “command and execution.” And new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom evidently hasn’t seen cause yet to disagree. Weber doesn’t throw hard and owns only a 5.04 ERA in 114 1/3 MLB innings over the past five seasons. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Sox can help him find a path to contributing value in 2020.

In other news out of Boston, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com rounds up a series of interesting stories on the Sox. We’ll take a brief look at those of particular hot stove relevance …

  • There’s some good news on the progress of recently acquired outfielder Alex Verdugo, but also some added questions. Bradford writes that the 23-year-old has made major strides just since camp opened — but also that he may miss a month or more of the regular season. “The fact it is taking this long is frustrating,” says Verdugo. “What keeps me positive is that all the players, the staff, the trainers, they all support me. They all want me to wait until I’m fully healthy and get back.” Verdugo spoke about the lingering back and related issues that have plagued him for some time now, saying that he had been on a “regular workout plan” from the Dodgers that (it now seems) may not have been the best approach.
  • Regardless whether this lengthy recovery process could’ve been shortened, it’s certainly disappointing that the Boston organization is dealing with this sort of uncertainty surrounding the key player acquired in exchange for Mookie Betts. And Verdugo’s potential also makes for a key component of the team’s 2020 outlook. Even without Betts, the club is certainly at least a plausible Wild Card contender. Fans feeling down about the situation may at least be buoyed somewhat to learn of Verdugo’s unabashed affinity for legend David Ortiz (Twitter link).
  • Returning veteran first baseman Mitch Moreland spoke of his most recent stint on the open market. While he again ended up inking with the Sox, it wasn’t an obvious outcome for much of the winter. Moreland, a Mississippi native, says he fielded interest from a number of other clubs, including some “really close to home that were enticing.” Ultimately, the Red Sox re-engaged — and Moreland says he was happy to work it out to remain in Boston. The Sox will be pleased if they get a repeat of Moreland’s 2019 output; he slashed .252/.328/.507 (112 wRC+) after putting up only league-average offensive output in his first two years with the club.
  • The free agent process can certainly have its twists and turns, but center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. sees it in a positive light. Bradley, who’ll hit the open market next winter, tells Bradford that he’s looking forward to having the ability “to finally make a choice for yourself.” There are ways in which nearing free agency can be stressful, he acknowledged, but that’s all a matter of perspective. For Bradley, there’s nothing but upside: “Why not be excited about it?” he queried.

Health Notes: Verdugo, Mikolas, Buxton, Buttrey

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As spring training gets rolling in earnest, news continues to trickle out about various players’ health situations. We’ll collect the latest here.

  • Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo has a stress fracture in his lower back, the team told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). The organization is comfortable with Verdugo’s progression but unsurprisingly plans to take things slowly in the early going, Cotillo notes. Interim manager Ron Roenicke acknowledged to reporters (including Cotillo) that “if everything goes right, he still might not be ready for Opening Day.” That’ll surely raise some eyebrows among Sox fans, but the organization was fully aware of the issue at the time they made the Mookie Betts trade, reiterates Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (on Twitter). Surgery won’t be necessary, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, but this is the firmest indication we’ve heard yet that Verdugo is likely to start the season on the shelf. Of course, Boston finalized a deal with Kevin Pillar yesterday. He figures to take on a significant role if Verdugo ends up sidelined.
  • The prognosis seems to be better for Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. Buxton hit off a tee today and hopes to progress to soft toss by next week, per various reports (including from Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). Per Gleeman, manager Rocco Baldelli expressed optimism earlier this week that Buxton could return from the shoulder surgery that ended his 2019 season by Opening Day.
  • Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas is working back from a flexor injury and could be delayed in spring training, the team told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Mikolas had some recurring flexor soreness last season, Goold adds, although the hope was that a postseason PRP injection and rest would alleviate the issue. With the soreness having cropped back up, Mikolas is likely ticketed for an MRI, Goold reports. Notably, manager Mike Shildt stressed to Goold that the injury is likely not indicative of any damage to the UCL, which would obviously have been quite problematic. It doesn’t seem there’s overwhelming cause for concern just yet. Of course, it’s not ideal for a key member of the St. Louis rotation to be dealing with arm soreness this early in the season. (UPDATE: Mikolas underwent an MRI this morning, Goold tweets. The exam did not reveal any ligament damage, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
  • Angels reliever Ty Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain and will be out for one or two weeks, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). The club still anticipates he’ll be a full-go by Opening Day. The 26-year-old posted a 3.98 ERA with a strong combination of strikeouts (27.2%) and walks (7.4%) in 2019. The former Red Sox prospect figures to be a key bullpen piece for Maddon in the latter’s first year at the helm in Anaheim.

Red Sox/Dodgers Notes: Betts, Friedman, Verdugo

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The latest news from two coasts, as the Dodgers and Red Sox continue to adjust to new realities after the blockbuster trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to Chavez Ravine…

  • Talks between the Dodgers and Red Sox about Betts began to develop in late December, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times and other reporters, though Los Angeles first looked into acquiring Betts prior to last July’s trade deadline.  A late surge for the Sox (who had an 8-3 run during an 11-game between July 17 and 27) convinced them to keep Betts and make a push for the postseason.  Pondering about what a deadline Sox/Dodgers trade would’ve looked like is an interesting what-if, especially since Friedman would’ve been negotiating with a different person — Dave Dombrowski was still Boston’s president of baseball operations at the time, before being replaced by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom (who used to work with Friedman in the Rays’ front office).
  • Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers don’t see Betts as just a one-year rental, as team president Stan Kasten told The Athletic’s Andy McCullough that pursuing a long-term extension with the outfielder was “certainly was part of our thinking [with the trade] — that that’s what we would like the outcome to be.”  Friedman concurred, saying “from our standpoint, I think he’s going to fall in love with the city, the fan support, the teammates, the facilities.  And we’re just trying to do everything we can to continue that and have our own guys want to stay.”  Keeping Betts would require a financial commitment that would far surpass anything Friedman has made since he joined the organization in 2015, though surely the baseball ops head and Dodgers ownership are aware of what it will cost the team to lock Betts up — in all likelihood a $400MM+ deal.  However, as McCullough notes, the Dodgers have seemingly laid the groundwork for big future expenditures with less than $45MM in guaranteed payroll commitments on the books following the 2021 season.  It remains a question as to whether Betts would be open to an extension, of course, given how he has so steadfastly expressed his desire to test the open market as a free agent.  Future contracts weren’t on Betts’ mind as he spoke with reporters, saying “I’m still trying to find a house and all those types of things. I’m not even really thinking about that.  I’m just focused on staying with 2020 and going from there.”
  • As to Betts’ projected replacement in the Red Sox outfield, Alex Verdugo might not be ready for Boston’s Opening Day lineup, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports.  Back and oblique problems sent Verdugo to the injured list on August 6 of last season, and he only appeared in one minor league game after that placement.  Speier writes that Verdugo’s back is still bothering him, though the Sox don’t see the injury as a long-term problem.  If Verdugo does miss time at the start of the season, it could be for precautionary reasons, as “a small number of games missed early in the year is better than a substantial stretch on the sideline if he is rushed into the lineup.“

MLBTR Poll: Did The Red Sox Improve Their Return For Mookie Betts?

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Five days ago, the Boston Red Sox almost traded 2018 MVP Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-team deal. As we now know, that trade fell apart. Today, it was replaced by a new deal. This time, the Red Sox and Dodgers took matters into their own hands while Los Angeles satisfied their other agreements in a separate deal with the Twins (while yet another portion of the deal was scrapped altogether). 

The earth-shattering move here is Boston dealing a former MVP in his prime. Though the Dodgers are only acquiring one season at $27MM, their books are relatively clean, and if nothing else, they are the prohibitive favorite to sign him long-term sometime next winter. But whether the Red Sox were wise to deal their young star – a player with 42 bWAR already on his resume – is not up for debate in this space. There’s clearly lots to sort out in cataloguing the pieces brought in by Dodgers’ President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman. But this isn’t the venue for that discussion either.

The financial aspect of this deal is difficult to process for many reasons. It’s no small feat to rid $75MM from the ledger in one fell swoop as the Red Sox did today. And yet, that the Boston Red Sox would be financially motivated to move one of the best players in the sport is beyond comprehension. Still, the financial numbers stayed relatively the same from version one to version two of this deal, so that can be tabled as well for now. 

This space is all about parsing the Red Sox’ return. Let’s quickly review the specifics.

In version one, the Red Sox were to receive two players: Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and Brusdar Graterol from the Twins.  This time around, prospects Jeter Downs and Connor Wong are heading to Boston with Verdugo. Without seeing the medical reports that gave the Red Sox pause over Graterol, the two frameworks provide a fun what-if for the rest of us to ponder. The question here is obvious: should the Red Sox have stuck with Graterol? Or did they improve their return by swapping in Downs and Wong?

Graterol surged through the Twins’ system last season, reaching the majors less than a week after his 21st birthday. The hard-throwing righty earned his keep in a small sample, striking out 10 batters in 9 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.66 ERA/3.42 FIP. MLB.com put him at #83 on their top 100 prospects list, while Baseball America came in a little more bullish with a #60 overall ranking. His talent isn’t in doubt – not with a sinker and four-seamer both clocked at 99 mph – but questions about his long-term health drove the the Red Sox to check behind door number two. If Graterol’s ceiling is that of a bullpen fireman, that’s a valuable asset – especially come playoff time. But even a move to the bullpen doesn’t guarantee the long-term viability of his right arm. Still, pitchers with Graterol’s stuff are rare birds and valuable commodities – even with one arm surgery already on the books.

Then there’s door number two. Downs had a big season at High-A last year after the Dodgers acquired him as the tax for taking on Homer Bailey in the Alex Wood/Yasiel Puig trade with the Reds. The 21-year-old Downs hit .269/.354/.507 in High-A before earning a promotion to Double-A in 2019. He showed well there, too, though only in a 12-game sample. He is likely to begin the year at Double-A for the Red Sox, but he’s climbing prospect boards. MLB.com put him at #44 overall, while Baseball America has him at #86. Most outlets peg him as the second baseman of the future, though he’s played more shortstop than second to this point.

Wong, 23, started the year at High-A last season as well. He finished exceptionally strong, however, putting up an impressive .349/.393/.604 line through 40 games in Double-A. Despite those gaudy numbers, he’s not as highly ranked. His power is legit, but he does strike out nearly 30% of the time, and he’s not yet walking at an average rate. Fangraphs’ had him as the Dodger’s #13 ranked prospect last season with a future value score of 40+, talent level appropriate for a bench role. For contract, Fangraphs has both Downs and Grateral with a 50 FV score. Were those ratings to come to fruition, Downs would project as an average regular, while Graterol could project as a back-end starter or potential late-inning reliever.

The debate largely centers on how much one wants to gamble on a high-end pitcher. But even the aerial view minimizes how much this deal really hinges upon the specific players involved.

To add one final wrinkle to this question, let me add this tweet from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. He says, “A number of baseball people saying #RedSox did well. Verdugo, Downs, project as regulars; Wong has good arm, power. Also moved half Price’s money. Deal at least comparable to what #DBacks got for Goldy, who cost less than Betts in walk year and had no other contracts attached.”

Whether you agree with Rosenthal’s people or not, the Paul Goldschmidt deal is certainly an interesting touchstone. Just a year ago, the Diamondbacks received Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young and a competitive balance round B draft selection in exchange for one season of Goldy. For simplified context, Betts is a 27-year-old stellar defensive right fielder coming off a 6.8 bWAR season, while Goldschmidt was a 31-year-old first baseman coming off a 5.4 bWAR season.

Of course, the dollar savings factor into a comparison to the Goldschmidt trade, as Goldy made just $14.5MM last season. The Diamondbacks trade was motivated more about returning value for a player they weren’t likely to extend. The Red Sox motivations are similar, though they’re also getting out from under David Price’s contract. Not for nothing, but Price remains a viable major league starter.

Also muddying the waters here is how one views Verdugo’s future. He’s long been a player projected for stardom, though a deep player pool and injuries slowed his ascent in Los Angeles. And there remain questions about his overall makeup as well. Still, he’ll turn just 24-years-old in May, and it wasn’t long ago that he was the top prospect in a Dodgers’ system that has continued to churn out big league players.

Last season was his first with regular playing time, and he made good with a .294/.342/.475 line with 12 home runs in 106 games before an oblique strain cost him most of the rest of the year. He’s got great bat-to-ball skills, and his defense is solid enough that he can man centerfield for a time if that’s a need. He’s a promising young player, but he’ll have big shoes to fill in Boston.

I’m giving you the chance to overrule Boston’s Chief Baseball Office Chaim Bloom. Which return would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

 

Latest On Potential Mookie Betts Trade

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February 7: The trade is expected to become official today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, citing sources from multiple teams involved in the deal. Completion of the Betts blockbuster would serve as a precursor for the finalization of the Dodgers’ Pederson/Stripling trade with the Angels as well.

It’s not yet clear what type of alterations, if any, will be made to the deal. Heyman tweeted earlier this morning that the Red Sox have been seeking an additional top prospect from the Twins, although it’s difficult to envision the Twins parting with another highly regarded talent without additional pieces being sent their way.

February 6, 8:27PM: “Some involved [in the trade] are now suggesting it’s not a certainty,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, as the holdup continues to center around the Red Sox, Twins, and Graterol’s condition.  Boston is reportedly trying to “reconfigure” its end of the deal with the Twins, “meaning more than Graterol” would head from Minnesota to Fenway Park.

1:03 AM: There’s only a “slim” chance this trade will completely fall apart, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The delay “is a problem but one we can figure out,” a source involved in the trade told Passan.

February 5: It has been more than 24 hours since the Mookie Betts trade was first reported, but the potential blockbuster featuring the Red Sox, Dodgers and Twins still hasn’t been finalized as we head into Thursday. There’s still confidence the deal will be completed, but there may end up being more pieces involved in the trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

The Red Sox are slated to send Betts and left-hander David Price (and approximately half of the remaining $96MM on his contract) to the Dodgers. In return, the Red Sox are set to get outfielder Alex Verdugo from LA and righty Brusdar Graterol from Minnesota. The Twins are in line to receive righty Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers.

Despite missing the final couple of months of last season with back/oblique/core problems, Verdugo has already been medically cleared, according to Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal writes that the Red Sox do have some concerns over the hard-throwing Graterol, whom they now regard as more of a reliever than a starter after looking at his medical records. Notably, Graterol’s a past Tommy John surgery patient who has also dealt with other injuries. The 21-year-old missed two months last season with shoulder issues that limited him to a combined 70 2/3 innings at four different levels (including 9 2/3 in the bigs).

While it still seems that Boston will acquire Graterol if the trade does occur, Rosenthal notes the club may also require another player and/or cash considerations from either the Dodgers or Twins to push it over the goal line. Assuming the three teams are able to reach some sort of compromise on what would go down as one of the most significant trades in recent history, it should open the door for yet another high-profile swap involving the Dodgers. They’re working to move outfielder Joc Pederson and hurler Ross Stripling as part of a deal with the Angels, but that’s delayed as the Dodgers await word on the Betts deal.

Dodgers To Acquire Betts, Price In Three-Team Trade; Twins To Acquire Maeda

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The Mookie Betts saga has reached its conclusion, and the result is a stunning three-team blockbuster that’ll massively alter the fortunes of all three clubs. The Dodgers are reportedly set to acquire Betts, David Price and significant cash considerations in a deal that will sent young outfielder Alex Verdugo to Boston and right-hander Kenta Maeda to the Twins. Minnesota, meanwhile, will send flamethrowing young righty Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox to complete the swap.

In making this move, Boston bids adieu to one of its most popular and productive players of the current generation. Betts, the 2018 AL MVP and a career .301/.374/.519 hitter, has cemented himself as one of baseball’s truly elite talents. However, he has also candidly stated time and time again that he intends to test the open market as a free agent.

That lack of interest in an extension left the recently restructured Red Sox front office to weigh trading him for controllable talent now versus simply netting a draft pick in the event that he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere next winter. The prospect of losing him for that level of minimal return, coupled with ownership’s clear goal of dipping south of the $208MM luxury tax barrier, ultimately led rookie chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to orchestrate tonight’s mega-deal.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will land perhaps the greatest consolation prize in history. After missing out on top target Gerrit Cole earlier this winter, they’ve now acquired one of the game’s best all-around players, Betts, in addition to a high-profile starter who can still contribute to their rotation — even if his halcyon days are in the past.

Betts, still only 27, now joins an outfield that’ll feature Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock, with the versatile Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez playing complementary roles as well. While Betts didn’t quite replicate his 2018 MVP production in 2019, his .295/.391/.524 slash was still elite by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+ (both 135). He’s now been at least 35 percent better than an average hitter in three of the past four seasons by those same measures.

The bat alone would make Betts a coveted player, but he’s also among baseball’s best baserunners and an all-world defender in the outfield. Betts has won a Gold Glove in each of the past four seasons, and his 98 Defensive Runs Saved in that time lead all Major League players, regardless of position, by a whopping 13 runs. His aversion to signing a long-term deal means he has to be viewed as a pure rental player, but if you’re going to rent any player on the planet, renting one whose 30.7 fWAR over the past four seasons trails only Mike Trout for the MLB lead is certainly a good way to go. Betts will earn a $27MM salary after avoiding arbitration for the final time this winter — a record salary for an arb-eligible player.

At 34 years old, Price probably won’t be winning any more Cy Young Awards in his career, but this past season’s 4.28 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9 and 41 percent grounder rate were all quite sound. That ERA undersells the season that Price had, too; he was plagued by a career-worst .336 average on balls in play, and fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his efforts (3.62 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA).

David Price | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In fact, Price carried a terrific 3.16 ERA and 3.00 FIP through his first 17 starts and 88 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2019. Things began to go south in July as he tried to pitch through a cyst in his left wrist, and he eventually went on the injured list for more than a month while dealing with the issue. He returned in early September but made only one appearance before being shut down and undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. Price is still owed $96MM under the then-record $217MM contract he signed prior to the 2016 season, but the Red Sox will pay a substantial portion of that sum to lessen the sting for the Dodgers.

Acquiring Betts and Price will cost Los Angeles a hefty five years of control over Verdugo and four more years of the talented Maeda, and there’s another major ripple effect, as the Dodgers have reportedly struck a separate trade sending outfielder Joc Pederson to the Angels in exchange for young infielder Luis Rengifo. Between the cash the Red Sox are sending to cover some of Price’s contract, the subtraction of Maeda and now the subtraction of Pederson’s final arbitration salary, it seems likely that the Dodgers will have managed to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold.

Not to be lost in the shuffle, the Twins are adding a quality arm to a rotation that looked to be in need of augmentation. In Maeda, they land an accomplished 31-year-old starter (32 in April) who prefers to work out of the rotation but was frequently moved to the bullpen for short stints — perhaps in part due to the massive incentives package in his eight-year contract.

Kenta Maeda | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Whether the Dodgers deliberately manipulated Maeda’s rotation work to suppress his earnings can’t be known, but his deal contains only a $3MM annual base with a whopping $10MM in annual bonuses based on games started and innings pitched. With the Twins, he’ll all but certainly be viewed as a rotation piece and be given every opportunity to max out those additional payments. Maeda is signed through the 2023 season, and his contract calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, so he can tack that onto his career earnings.

In 589 career innings, Maeda has a 3.87 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate. That he’s more of a fly-ball pitcher bodes well for his fortunes in Minnesota, as the Twins have significant questions about their middle-infield defense but a high-quality group of outfield defenders led by Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Maeda has racked up 32 2/3 career postseason innings as well, pitching to a 3.31 ERA in that time. He might not be the ace Twins fans hoped to net early this winter, but he’ll bump one of two rookies — southpaw Devin Smeltzer or right-hander Randy Dobnak — from the rotation and provide a clear boost.

In 2020, Maeda will step into a rotation that’ll be fronted by Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda to a two-year contract earlier this winter, but he’ll be out through mid-May as he serves a reduced 60-game suspension for taking a banned substance. Veteran Homer Bailey will also be a part of the Twins’ starting staff after signing a one-year pact on the heels of a healthy season, and Maeda will eventually be reunited with former Dodgers teammate Rich Hill. The veteran southpaw inked a one-year deal this winter but will be out until the summer as he recovers from primary revision surgery.

Looking beyond the 2020 campaign, Maeda is all the more important for the Twins. Odorizzi, Bailey and Hill are all slated to become free agents next winter, so prior to this trade, Berrios and Pineda were the only proven starters Minnesota controlled beyond the upcoming campaign. Maeda gives them a solid mid-rotation presence to help anchor the staff and does so at an affordable rate that’ll allow the Twins to continue to be aggressive in free agency next year if they choose to double down on this winter’s surprising Josh Donaldson splash.

As for the Red Sox, today is presumably one of the most difficult days in franchise history for a number of the team’s longest-tenured executives. Luxury tax aside, Sox ownership recognizes that trading Betts will be a wildly unpopular move. John Henry and Co. surely didn’t think they’d be in this position just 16 months ago when celebrating a World Series victory, but injuries and some ill-fated expenditures brought about a mediocre 2019 season and a slew of tough choices. It’s easy to argue that a team with such considerable financial resources at its disposal should simply have kept Betts and paid up for him, but even their detractors can agree that there’s likely little joy in trading away a generational player.

The 2020 Red Sox are unquestionably worse having made this move, but they were a long shot to topple the Yankees anyhow and now acquire a pair of potential building blocks. The 23-year-old Verdugo is a longtime top prospect who enjoyed a strong 2019 season and will step right into the void left by Betts. He’s fresh off a .294/.342/.475 slash with a dozen home runs, 22 doubles and two triples in 377 plate appearances with Los Angeles and should see his playing time soar to full-time levels in 2020 and beyond.

Alex Verdugo | Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Verdugo has excellent bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out (13.7 percent in his career). And while he’s no Betts with the glove — no one is — he racked up 13 DRS in 2019 and is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He’s the Red Sox’ right fielder of the future, and unlike many young players who are acquired for stars, that future will start right away; Verdugo should be in the Opening Day lineup and give Sox fans an immediate look at his potential.

The 21-year-old Graterol is less certain to open the year with the Sox, but he’s an electric and exciting talent — albeit one with more volatility than Verdugo. Injuries have plagued Graterol throughout his minor league career — he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery and has battled shoulder troubles, too — but pitchers with his type of velocity and upside are rare. The massive 6’1″, 255-pounder boasts a fastball that sits just under 100 mph and can reach as high as 103 mph, and he’s utterly dominated in the minors when healthy.

Graterol owns a career 2.48 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 214 minor league frames, and he skyrocketed across multiple levels to make his MLB debut in 2019. There’s some concern that his future is in the bullpen, but the Red Sox will likely give him every opportunity to prove that he can be a difference-maker in their rotation.

Graterol was a consensus Top 100 prospect a year ago and remains on those oft-cited rankings. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has already moved Graterol to the top of Boston’s prospect rankings, noting the big righty’s potential to either function as a high-end starter or, if he moves to the ’pen, an elite reliever.

Although there are myriad high-profile players whose name will still be bandied about the trade market, there’s a chance that the Betts/Price/Maeda blockbuster will serve as the finishing touch on what has been a riveting offseason — on that hearkened back to the pre-labor-tension days that seem far longer ago than just two or three years. And in some respects, it’s merely an interesting prelude to a 2020-21 offseason that will quite likely see Betts set out into the free-agent market in search of the largest contract in MLB history. Trades of this magnitude are of the utmost rarity — and virtually unprecedented this time of year — and there’s a good chance that come October we’ll look back at Feb. 4 as a day that majorly impacted multiple division races and postseason outcomes.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported (via Twitter) that a deal was in place after MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported that talks had become “advanced.” Speier reported the inclusion of a third team (Twitter link). SKOR North Radio’s Darren Wolfson first suggested the Twins’ potential involvement (Twitter link), and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Twins were indeed the third team. Rosenthal reported the basic framework of the deal, tweeting that Betts and Price would head to L.A., Maeda would go to Minnesota and that Verdugo and Graterol were headed to Boston.

Red Sox, Dodgers In “Advanced” Talks On Mookie Betts

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8:05pm: A third team could be involved in talks, tweets Rosenthal, though the basic framework of the deal being discussed still includes Price and Betts going to L.A. and Verdugo going to Boston.

8:03pm: The current proposal would send both Betts and Price to Los Angeles, tweets Speier. The two sides are reviewing medicals on all of the potentially involved players. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that young outfielder Alex Verdugo would be the centerpiece going to Boston, as has been previously rumored.

7:58pm: Trade talks centering around Red Sox star right fielder Mookie Betts have once again heated up, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who calls the Dodgers the favorite to land him. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston and Los Angeles are in “advanced” talks and that it’s possible a deal will come together tonight. The Padres aren’t completely out of the mix just yet, per Heyman.

The Betts trade saga has dominated headlines for the past week, with the Red Sox soliciting offers on the 2018 AL MVP from both the Dodgers and Padres. Both teams have obvious motivations to add Betts to the fold, but the Dodgers are already a clear postseason contender with deeper pockets and a generally strong mix of MLB-ready talent and high-end prospects. Previous reports have indicated that the Red Sox are hoping to attach part of David Price’s contract in a deal with the Dodgers, though it’s not clear whether the current permutations of talks include the former Cy Young winner, who is owed $96MM over the next three years.

Betts, 27, agreed to a record-setting $27MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process earlier this winter. He’s been outspoken and candid about his desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, so he has to be viewed purely as a one-year rental for any club that acquires him. By trading him, the Red Sox would drop their projected luxury tax commitments to about $212MM — just $4MM over the $208MM threshold. If they’re successfully able to unload a portion of Price’s deal, new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will have successfully dipped below the luxury tax line. That’s been a clear goal for Boston ownership all winter, despite chairman John Henry’s dubious claims that the team is more focused on competitiveness than on resetting their luxury penalty level.

Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution

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The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.

That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.

Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?

Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.

Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.

Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.

With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.

Alex Verdugo “Very Unlikely” To Play In Postseason

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It doesn’t appear as though Alex Verdugo will factor into the Dodgers’ October run, as manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Pedro Moura (Twitter links) and other reporters that “to see him ready at all this postseason [is] very unlikely.”  Verdugo himself said that he is still hoping to be available for the World Series, though while he has begun conditioning exercises, he has yet to begin swinging a bat.

Verdugo hasn’t played since August 4 due to a right oblique strain, and he was also hampered by a back issue that developed when the outfielder was on a rehab assignment.  Given such a long layoff, it would be difficult to imagine the Dodgers immediately throwing the rookie into the cauldron of World Series play, especially if Verdugo is still at less than 100 percent.

It’s a tribute to the Dodgers’ depth that they have enough outfield options to make do without Verdugo, though the 23-year-old is still missed given how well he played in his first extended taste of Major League action.  Long a highly-touted prospect, Verdugo hit .294/.342/.475 with 12 home runs over 377 plate appearances in 2019, continuing the solid contact skills he displayed in the minors by posting only a 13 percent strikeout rate.  Beyond his hitting prowess, Verdugo also displayed some strong glovework at all three outfield positions, with a cumulative +7.1 UZR/150 and +13 Defensive Runs Saved over 756 innings on the grass.

Rookie Matt Beaty, another left-handed hitter, may have been the prime beneficiary of Verdugo’s absence, as Beaty was named to the Dodgers’ NLDS roster against the Nationals.  Neither Beaty or Joc Pederson, however, were at all productive against left-handed pitching, whereas Verdugo was actually a bit better against lefties (.327/.358/.485 in 109 PA) than against righties (.281/.336/.471 in 268 PA).

Dodgers Notes: Hill, Stripling, Verdugo, Turner

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Let’s check in on the National League’s top-ranked club as the postseason approaches…

  • The Dodgers have seemingly avoided an especially negative outcome with left-hander Rich Hill, whose season looked to be in jeopardy when he suffered a strained MCL in his left knee last week. The same type of injury kept Hill out for the first month of the season, but it looks as if he’ll slot back into the Dodgers’ staff in short order this time. The MRI that Hill underwent Monday revealed “nothing structural,” manager Dave Roberts announced to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group and other reporters, which paved the way for the 39-year-old to throw a bullpen session Tuesday. Now, barring any setbacks, it seems Hill could take a major league mound again as early as this week.
  • Regardless of whether Hill reenters their rotation this year, right-hander Ross Stripling will not factor into the Dodgers’ postseason starting mix, per Roberts (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Stripling will instead be part of the Dodgers’ playoff relief corps. The 29-year-old swingman has divided 2019 between LA’s starting and relief staffs, and has notched a sturdy 3.40 ERA/3.71 FIP with 8.72 K/9, 2.02 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent groundball rate across 84 2/3 innings.
  • While the latest news on Hill looks encouraging, the same doesn’t apply to outfielder Alex Verdugo. The rookie will officially miss the Dodgers’ National League Division Series matchup, Hoornstra tweets. The hope is Verdugo will be ready to return if the Dodgers advance to the second round of the postseason. Oblique and back injuries have shelved Verdugo since Aug. 4, prematurely ending a solid first season in which the 23-year-old slashed .294/.342/.475 with a dozen home runs and 2.2 fWAR in 377 plate appearances. The Dodgers aren’t exactly hard up for outfield help without Verdugo, of course, as they still boast NL MVP candidate Cody Bellinger, A.J. Pollock and Joc Pederson among their main choices.
  • Although there had been hope third baseman Justin Turner would make his way back to the Dodgers’ starting lineup Tuesday, that’s not going to happen. Turner did say he’s “getting better every day” as he tries to return from the left ankle sprain that has shelved him since Sept. 7, though (Twitter links via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and Gurnick). That said, Roberts still isn’t willing to offer a timetable on when Turner could start again. The Dodgers have recently turned to Matt Beaty, Chris Taylor and Jedd Gyorko at third in lieu of Turner, who has once again posted star-caliber numbers this season when healthy.

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