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Alex Verdugo

Red Sox Rumors: Outfield, Rotation, Second Base, Barnes

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The Red Sox signed Hunter Renfroe to a one-year deal earlier this week, adding a power bat to pair with Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo in the outfield. However, general manager Brian O’Halloran said in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this morning that the addition of Renfroe does not prevent the Sox from further adding to their outfield corps (Twitter link, with audio). “The door is definitely not closed on adding to the mix, and that could certainly be a traditional center fielder that has experience — a guy like Jackie Bradley Jr.” said O’Halloran. “We’ve said that Jackie remains on our radar, and nothing is foreclosed there.”

O’Halloran went on to note that at the moment, the likeliest in-house replacement for Bradley in center field would be Verdugo, not Benintendi. Presumably, the current group would line up with Benintendi in left, Verdugo in center and Renfroe in right. Bringing a center fielder into the mix could push the right-handed-hitting Renfroe into more of a platoon role, which could prove beneficial for Boston. Renfroe is a career .216/.268/.449 hitter against righties but has clobbered lefties at a .258/.339/.573 clip.

Some more notes out of Boston…

  • The rotation remains a priority for the Sox, with Alex Cora telling reporters Thursday that Halloran and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom have been “relentless” in their exploration of the market for starting pitching upgrades (link via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com). It’s perhaps notable that Cora specifically referred to an “intriguing” crop of starters that are available on the international market. The Red Sox have already been connected to Yomiuri Giants ace Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been posted for MLB clubs, and the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters have also posted righty Kohei Arihara. The Sox will hope to have a trio of Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi healthy by this summer, but each has his own slate of health concerns and the organization is thin in terms of upper-level rotation depth.
  • Speaking of the international market for players, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe lists Ha-Seong Kim as a fit for the Red Sox in looking through their need at second base. While the connection to Kim here is framed a bit speculatively, Speier writes that “in all likelihood,” he’s the only free-agent option at the position to whom the Red Sox would be willing to commit more than two years, as his youth and upside fit with the team’s long-term goals. Most other options are likely to be viewed more as stopgaps or bridges to prospect Jeter Downs. Via Speier, Bloom suggested that the Red Sox are open to adding an established, everyday option at second base but aren’t dead-set on doing so. A multi-position piece who could leave some opportunity for in-house options like Christian Arroyo and Michael Chavis to seize regular playing time remains a possibility as well. For what it’s worth, Cora spoke highly of Arroyo in today’s call with reporters, praising his “upside” and noting that he’d previously recruited him to play for team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.
  • While Cora was reluctant to discuss specific roles for players, he called right-hander Matt Barnes someone the team “should consider” for the closer role in 2021 (link via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Cora emphasized that it’s unfair to any player to speak as though he has a defined role now, with months of offseason transactions still to come, but he also praised the manner in which Barnes handled ninth-inning duties in 2020. “If the season starts tomorrow and we have the lead in the ninth inning and we haven’t used Matt in the seventh or eighth, I flip him the ball and I believe he can get the three outs and get us to the next day,” Cora said before going on to call Barnes one of the game’s best relievers over the past few seasons. Some may raise an eyebrow at that description, given Barnes’ 3.83 ERA since 2017. It’s worth noting, though, that of the 232 pitchers with 200-plus innings thrown over the past four seasons, only six have struck out a higher percentage of opposing batters than Barnes (34.1 percent), and only 22 have a lower FIP than Barnes’ 3.30.

Quick Hits: Fans In Stands, Red Sox, Marlins, Cardinals

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Major League Baseball will allow its teams to decide whether they’ll allow fans in the stands this season “based on local, state ordinances and procedures,” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Schulman expresses doubt that either the Giants or Athletics will play in front of fans in their stadiums in 2020, though.

It may be a different story for the Marlins, as Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez told Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640 that he’ll at least consider allowing spectators at their stadium. The Marlins will first have to come up with an effective social distancing plan, however, and that could be especially difficult with coronavirus cases in Florida rising at an alarming rate.

Meanwhile, speaking with Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald and other reporters Wednesday, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said “it’s a possibility” that Fenway Park will be able to host fans sometime this year. Kennedy added “there are clubs around Major League Baseball that are anticipating having fans in their ballparks,” though it remains to be seen whether that will prove to be wishful thinking.

Here’s more from the majors…

  • Kennedy and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom offered further updates on the franchise, as Mastrodonato was among those to cover on Twitter. Bloom revealed the Red Sox have had one player test positive for the coronavirus, but that individual is no longer exhibiting any symptoms. Those who do test positive are required a 14-day quarantine/monitoring period, and then they have to test negative on multiple occasions before returning, Bloom said.
  • Bloom also spoke on on outfielder Alex Verdugo and right-hander Collin McHugh, two players who have dealt with injuries. A stress fracture in Verdugo’s back slowed him during the first version of spring training, but one of the key components of the Mookie Betts trade will be a full go for Boston when camp resumes in July. And McHugh, still on the mend from elbow problems that limited him in 2019, is making progress. The Red Sox are hopeful he’ll be able to pitch this season, which is his first with the club. Boston signed the ex-Astro to a one-year, incentive-heavy deal in free agency.
  • Back to the Marlins, who recently had a player and a staff member test positive for the virus at their Jupiter, Fla., complex, Craig Mish of Sports Grid reports. Both people are now asymptomatic.
  • The Cardinals have become the latest team to make a financial commitment to their minor leaguers until the conclusion of the campaign, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced Wednesday they’ll pay their minors talent $400 a week through August, the end of a season those individuals likely won’t be able to play.

Alex Verdugo At Full Health

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Newly acquired Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo seems to be healing up nicely during the pandemic pause, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. He had been sidelined with a stress fracture in his lower back when Spring Training was halted.

When last we heard from Verdugo, a key piece of the offseason blockbuster with the Dodgers, he had resumed baseball activities. But his outlook remained largely unclear, particularly given the vagaries of lower-back issues.

Now, Verdugo says, he’s at full health. Soon to turn 24, the left-handed-hitting outfielder is optimistic that he’ll be ready to roll whenever the second spring for the 2020 season begins.

“I’m at such a good position mentally and physically that I’m not worried about (my performance),” he told reporters. “I’m just ready to go play.”

While he’s anxious to get back underway, Verdugo also acknowledged that getting back to action involves rather complicated considerations and says he doesn’t want to do so prematurely. Mastrodonato covers his opinions on the resumption of play in full.

[RELATED: What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?]

And what about the possibility of a lost season … such that the Dodgers would lose Mookie Betts to free agency before he suits up for them? Per Verdugo: “We can’t expect these things and for the Dodgers that’s a tough deal. But, hey, everything happens for a reason.”

What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?

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If the 2020 MLB season is canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, players will receive service time equal to the amount they accrued in 2019.  That’s a win for any player who received a full year in ’19, as they’d remain on track for free agency as expected.  That includes Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and everyone else expected to be in the 2020-21 free agent class.

A canceled season would sting for someone like Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux, who picked up 28 days of Major League service as a rookie last year but was likely to get a full season in 2020.  Lux’s free agency would have arrived after the 2025 season, but if this season is canceled, he’ll project to become a free agent after ’26.  And then there are others who didn’t get any MLB service in ’19 but were expected to in ’20, such as Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Nate Pearson.

It’s worth considering how the balance would shift in recent major trades if there’s no 2020 season.  The Betts trade, where the Dodgers’ main acquisition was a star rental player, dramatically shifts toward the Red Sox.

Pre-coronavirus expectations of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get one year of Mookie Betts, three years of David Price, $48MM from the Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer after the season
  • Red Sox get five years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

Canceled season results of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get zero years of Mookie Betts, two years of David Price, $32MM from Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer
  • Red Sox get four years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

The Red Sox had been scheduled to pay $48MM to the Dodgers in 18 equal installments, starting tomorrow.  However, MLBTR has confirmed that all cash considerations will be adjusted proportionally to the salary reductions that end up occurring in 2020.  So if the Dodgers don’t wind up paying Price in 2020, the Red Sox won’t send money to them.  My $32MM figure assumes the 2021 season is played in full.

Price remains a useful pitcher, so it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up nothing of value.  And while they’d still pay the Dodgers $32MM in 2021-22, that’s only half what they’d have originally owed Price for his age 35-36 seasons.  The Sox might have accepted that arrangement with nothing in return from the Dodgers, but they still get to keep Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.  Though a canceled season would mean the Red Sox would lose the chance to reset under the luxury tax in 2020, that will be less challenging in ’21 given the Price trade and the fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) will be coming off the books.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, would find themselves without Betts, Verdugo, or Joc Pederson for the 2021 season (unless they re-sign Pederson as a free agent).  They’d lose a crucial year of control of Cody Bellinger, who would likely settle back in as the regular right fielder.  That would leave A.J. Pollock as the regular center fielder.  The Dodgers would have an even bigger question mark in left, where Pederson, Verdugo, and Pollock combined to take more than half of the innings in 2019.  Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty would be the main in-house candidates, so the Dodgers would likely have to make an outfield acquisition.

Betts could still wind up playing meaningful games for the Dodgers if the 2020 season is canceled, as they’d be a top contender for him in what could be a strange free agency period.  It would hardly be a shock to see the entire free agent market suffer due to teams’ lost revenue in 2020, forcing Betts to settle for less than he expected prior to the pandemic.

Could the Dodgers receive some sort of recourse on the Betts trade if the season is canceled?  I polled MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne, and none of them find that likely.  As Steve put it, “If there’s an alteration to the Betts deal, that just seems like opening Pandora’s box. Every team in the league would be clamoring for compensation because almost everyone would be getting screwed to some extent.”  Whether it’s the Reds acquiring Trevor Bauer last summer with an eye toward 2020, the Diamondbacks losing one of their two years of Starling Marte, or the Rangers losing a year of Corey Kluber, many teams are dealing with a similar situation.

For more on this topic, check out my new video discussion with Jeff Todd:

Red Sox Provide Updates On Injured Players

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Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke and pitching coach Dave Bush held a conference call with reporters Tuesday, providing updates on a trio of injured Sox players (all Twitter links via NESN’s Guerin Austin and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo).

Perhaps most notably, Roenicke explained that right fielder Alex Verdugo has been swinging a bat, throwing and running as he rehabs a stress fracture in his lower back. Moving his workouts away from the Red Sox’ spring facility following its shutdown has made it more difficult for the club to closely monitor the 23-year-old’s progress, and Verdugo hasn’t yet been able to undergo an MRI to ascertain that his injury has completely healed. However, the Sox remain hopeful that if play is able to resume this year, Verdugo would be ready to participate fully. The centerpiece in Boston’s return for Mookie Betts and David Price, Verdugo slashed .294/.342/.475 with a dozen homers, 22 doubles and a pair of triples in 377 plate appearances with the Dodgers last year.

[Related: What happens to the Mookie Betts trade if the season is canceled?]

As for right-hander Collin McHugh, he’s moving more slowly through the early stages of a strengthening program. McHugh underwent a nonsurgical elbow procedure over the winter after finishing the 2019 season on the injured list and has been brought along slowly. The Sox aren’t rushing him through anything with the season in limbo at the moment, and Roenicke indicated that the 32-year-old righty, who signed a one-year deal with Boston in early March, still has quite a ways to go in his rehab. Boston’s final couple of rotation spots remain fairly unsettled — Ryan Weber is the likely fourth starter, and there’s no set fifth starter — although given where McHugh is in his rehab, perhaps he’s better viewed as a potential bullpen piece.

Regarding former franchise cornerstone Dustin Pedroia, it doesn’t seem that the shutdown has provided any new optimism that he could make a return. While he’s still under contract through the 2021 season, Pedroia’s 2020 status has been up in the air since he suffered a “significant” setback in his recovery from repeated left knee troubles that have necessitated a trio of surgeries. He’s played in just nine games over the past two seasons thanks to his increasingly problematic knee, and Roenicke was rather blunt in casting doubt on a potential return for the 36-year-old: “He’s still not a point where he’s thinking about trying to be ready to come back and join us.”

Red Sox Notes: Dalbec, Perez

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The identity of the Boston Red Sox is unclear now that Mookie Betts and David Price play for a different organization. The trickle down effect of losing a bat like Betts from a lineup will certainly affect the other Boston position players, but they still have a talented group of players on hand, starting with corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo. If that sweet-swinging pair can take their games to the next level, the Red Sox should once again roster an above-average offense in 2020. Believe it or not, the Red Sox were fourth in the majors in runs scored last season, so even without Betts, they could surprise some people. Let’s check in on some camp battles worth watching in Red Sox territory…

  • Bobby Dalbec won’t be on the opening day roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Dalbec turns 25 this June, so it’s entirely likely he’ll be ready for major league action at some point this season. With Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis already on the roster, Dalbec is blocked at his natural position of third base. He has taken some reps at first base the last couple of seasons, which could pave the way for a 2020 debut. Mitch Moreland has his foot on the bag for now, with Chavis potentially sliding over from second against tough lefties. Even so, with the Red Sox holding a club option for Moreland in 2021 and a long history of just adequate offensive production, Moreland is hardly a monolith at first. With the expectation of making the opening day roster apparently dashed, Dalbec can focus in on the larger task at hand – putting himself in a position to usurp a roster spot at some point during the 2020 season. 
  • Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.” 

Red Sox Notes: Weber, Verdugo, Moreland, JBJ

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Just what are the Red Sox thinking by tying up a 40-man roster spot on righty Ryan Weber? Chad Jennings of The Athletic explores (subscription link). The club sees Weber as a clear candidate to take the fifth starter’s role or at least to serve as valuable depth. (He can still be optioned.) While his stuff isn’t eye-popping, it seems the org’s talent evaluators were wowed by Weber’s “command and execution.” And new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom evidently hasn’t seen cause yet to disagree. Weber doesn’t throw hard and owns only a 5.04 ERA in 114 1/3 MLB innings over the past five seasons. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Sox can help him find a path to contributing value in 2020.

In other news out of Boston, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com rounds up a series of interesting stories on the Sox. We’ll take a brief look at those of particular hot stove relevance …

  • There’s some good news on the progress of recently acquired outfielder Alex Verdugo, but also some added questions. Bradford writes that the 23-year-old has made major strides just since camp opened — but also that he may miss a month or more of the regular season. “The fact it is taking this long is frustrating,” says Verdugo. “What keeps me positive is that all the players, the staff, the trainers, they all support me. They all want me to wait until I’m fully healthy and get back.” Verdugo spoke about the lingering back and related issues that have plagued him for some time now, saying that he had been on a “regular workout plan” from the Dodgers that (it now seems) may not have been the best approach.
  • Regardless whether this lengthy recovery process could’ve been shortened, it’s certainly disappointing that the Boston organization is dealing with this sort of uncertainty surrounding the key player acquired in exchange for Mookie Betts. And Verdugo’s potential also makes for a key component of the team’s 2020 outlook. Even without Betts, the club is certainly at least a plausible Wild Card contender. Fans feeling down about the situation may at least be buoyed somewhat to learn of Verdugo’s unabashed affinity for legend David Ortiz (Twitter link).
  • Returning veteran first baseman Mitch Moreland spoke of his most recent stint on the open market. While he again ended up inking with the Sox, it wasn’t an obvious outcome for much of the winter. Moreland, a Mississippi native, says he fielded interest from a number of other clubs, including some “really close to home that were enticing.” Ultimately, the Red Sox re-engaged — and Moreland says he was happy to work it out to remain in Boston. The Sox will be pleased if they get a repeat of Moreland’s 2019 output; he slashed .252/.328/.507 (112 wRC+) after putting up only league-average offensive output in his first two years with the club.
  • The free agent process can certainly have its twists and turns, but center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. sees it in a positive light. Bradley, who’ll hit the open market next winter, tells Bradford that he’s looking forward to having the ability “to finally make a choice for yourself.” There are ways in which nearing free agency can be stressful, he acknowledged, but that’s all a matter of perspective. For Bradley, there’s nothing but upside: “Why not be excited about it?” he queried.

Health Notes: Verdugo, Mikolas, Buxton, Buttrey

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As spring training gets rolling in earnest, news continues to trickle out about various players’ health situations. We’ll collect the latest here.

  • Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo has a stress fracture in his lower back, the team told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). The organization is comfortable with Verdugo’s progression but unsurprisingly plans to take things slowly in the early going, Cotillo notes. Interim manager Ron Roenicke acknowledged to reporters (including Cotillo) that “if everything goes right, he still might not be ready for Opening Day.” That’ll surely raise some eyebrows among Sox fans, but the organization was fully aware of the issue at the time they made the Mookie Betts trade, reiterates Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (on Twitter). Surgery won’t be necessary, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, but this is the firmest indication we’ve heard yet that Verdugo is likely to start the season on the shelf. Of course, Boston finalized a deal with Kevin Pillar yesterday. He figures to take on a significant role if Verdugo ends up sidelined.
  • The prognosis seems to be better for Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. Buxton hit off a tee today and hopes to progress to soft toss by next week, per various reports (including from Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). Per Gleeman, manager Rocco Baldelli expressed optimism earlier this week that Buxton could return from the shoulder surgery that ended his 2019 season by Opening Day.
  • Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas is working back from a flexor injury and could be delayed in spring training, the team told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Mikolas had some recurring flexor soreness last season, Goold adds, although the hope was that a postseason PRP injection and rest would alleviate the issue. With the soreness having cropped back up, Mikolas is likely ticketed for an MRI, Goold reports. Notably, manager Mike Shildt stressed to Goold that the injury is likely not indicative of any damage to the UCL, which would obviously have been quite problematic. It doesn’t seem there’s overwhelming cause for concern just yet. Of course, it’s not ideal for a key member of the St. Louis rotation to be dealing with arm soreness this early in the season. (UPDATE: Mikolas underwent an MRI this morning, Goold tweets. The exam did not reveal any ligament damage, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
  • Angels reliever Ty Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain and will be out for one or two weeks, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). The club still anticipates he’ll be a full-go by Opening Day. The 26-year-old posted a 3.98 ERA with a strong combination of strikeouts (27.2%) and walks (7.4%) in 2019. The former Red Sox prospect figures to be a key bullpen piece for Maddon in the latter’s first year at the helm in Anaheim.

Red Sox/Dodgers Notes: Betts, Friedman, Verdugo

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The latest news from two coasts, as the Dodgers and Red Sox continue to adjust to new realities after the blockbuster trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to Chavez Ravine…

  • Talks between the Dodgers and Red Sox about Betts began to develop in late December, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times and other reporters, though Los Angeles first looked into acquiring Betts prior to last July’s trade deadline.  A late surge for the Sox (who had an 8-3 run during an 11-game between July 17 and 27) convinced them to keep Betts and make a push for the postseason.  Pondering about what a deadline Sox/Dodgers trade would’ve looked like is an interesting what-if, especially since Friedman would’ve been negotiating with a different person — Dave Dombrowski was still Boston’s president of baseball operations at the time, before being replaced by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom (who used to work with Friedman in the Rays’ front office).
  • Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers don’t see Betts as just a one-year rental, as team president Stan Kasten told The Athletic’s Andy McCullough that pursuing a long-term extension with the outfielder was “certainly was part of our thinking [with the trade] — that that’s what we would like the outcome to be.”  Friedman concurred, saying “from our standpoint, I think he’s going to fall in love with the city, the fan support, the teammates, the facilities.  And we’re just trying to do everything we can to continue that and have our own guys want to stay.”  Keeping Betts would require a financial commitment that would far surpass anything Friedman has made since he joined the organization in 2015, though surely the baseball ops head and Dodgers ownership are aware of what it will cost the team to lock Betts up — in all likelihood a $400MM+ deal.  However, as McCullough notes, the Dodgers have seemingly laid the groundwork for big future expenditures with less than $45MM in guaranteed payroll commitments on the books following the 2021 season.  It remains a question as to whether Betts would be open to an extension, of course, given how he has so steadfastly expressed his desire to test the open market as a free agent.  Future contracts weren’t on Betts’ mind as he spoke with reporters, saying “I’m still trying to find a house and all those types of things. I’m not even really thinking about that.  I’m just focused on staying with 2020 and going from there.”
  • As to Betts’ projected replacement in the Red Sox outfield, Alex Verdugo might not be ready for Boston’s Opening Day lineup, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports.  Back and oblique problems sent Verdugo to the injured list on August 6 of last season, and he only appeared in one minor league game after that placement.  Speier writes that Verdugo’s back is still bothering him, though the Sox don’t see the injury as a long-term problem.  If Verdugo does miss time at the start of the season, it could be for precautionary reasons, as “a small number of games missed early in the year is better than a substantial stretch on the sideline if he is rushed into the lineup.“

MLBTR Poll: Did The Red Sox Improve Their Return For Mookie Betts?

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Five days ago, the Boston Red Sox almost traded 2018 MVP Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-team deal. As we now know, that trade fell apart. Today, it was replaced by a new deal. This time, the Red Sox and Dodgers took matters into their own hands while Los Angeles satisfied their other agreements in a separate deal with the Twins (while yet another portion of the deal was scrapped altogether). 

The earth-shattering move here is Boston dealing a former MVP in his prime. Though the Dodgers are only acquiring one season at $27MM, their books are relatively clean, and if nothing else, they are the prohibitive favorite to sign him long-term sometime next winter. But whether the Red Sox were wise to deal their young star – a player with 42 bWAR already on his resume – is not up for debate in this space. There’s clearly lots to sort out in cataloguing the pieces brought in by Dodgers’ President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman. But this isn’t the venue for that discussion either.

The financial aspect of this deal is difficult to process for many reasons. It’s no small feat to rid $75MM from the ledger in one fell swoop as the Red Sox did today. And yet, that the Boston Red Sox would be financially motivated to move one of the best players in the sport is beyond comprehension. Still, the financial numbers stayed relatively the same from version one to version two of this deal, so that can be tabled as well for now. 

This space is all about parsing the Red Sox’ return. Let’s quickly review the specifics.

In version one, the Red Sox were to receive two players: Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and Brusdar Graterol from the Twins.  This time around, prospects Jeter Downs and Connor Wong are heading to Boston with Verdugo. Without seeing the medical reports that gave the Red Sox pause over Graterol, the two frameworks provide a fun what-if for the rest of us to ponder. The question here is obvious: should the Red Sox have stuck with Graterol? Or did they improve their return by swapping in Downs and Wong?

Graterol surged through the Twins’ system last season, reaching the majors less than a week after his 21st birthday. The hard-throwing righty earned his keep in a small sample, striking out 10 batters in 9 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.66 ERA/3.42 FIP. MLB.com put him at #83 on their top 100 prospects list, while Baseball America came in a little more bullish with a #60 overall ranking. His talent isn’t in doubt – not with a sinker and four-seamer both clocked at 99 mph – but questions about his long-term health drove the the Red Sox to check behind door number two. If Graterol’s ceiling is that of a bullpen fireman, that’s a valuable asset – especially come playoff time. But even a move to the bullpen doesn’t guarantee the long-term viability of his right arm. Still, pitchers with Graterol’s stuff are rare birds and valuable commodities – even with one arm surgery already on the books.

Then there’s door number two. Downs had a big season at High-A last year after the Dodgers acquired him as the tax for taking on Homer Bailey in the Alex Wood/Yasiel Puig trade with the Reds. The 21-year-old Downs hit .269/.354/.507 in High-A before earning a promotion to Double-A in 2019. He showed well there, too, though only in a 12-game sample. He is likely to begin the year at Double-A for the Red Sox, but he’s climbing prospect boards. MLB.com put him at #44 overall, while Baseball America has him at #86. Most outlets peg him as the second baseman of the future, though he’s played more shortstop than second to this point.

Wong, 23, started the year at High-A last season as well. He finished exceptionally strong, however, putting up an impressive .349/.393/.604 line through 40 games in Double-A. Despite those gaudy numbers, he’s not as highly ranked. His power is legit, but he does strike out nearly 30% of the time, and he’s not yet walking at an average rate. Fangraphs’ had him as the Dodger’s #13 ranked prospect last season with a future value score of 40+, talent level appropriate for a bench role. For contract, Fangraphs has both Downs and Grateral with a 50 FV score. Were those ratings to come to fruition, Downs would project as an average regular, while Graterol could project as a back-end starter or potential late-inning reliever.

The debate largely centers on how much one wants to gamble on a high-end pitcher. But even the aerial view minimizes how much this deal really hinges upon the specific players involved.

To add one final wrinkle to this question, let me add this tweet from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. He says, “A number of baseball people saying #RedSox did well. Verdugo, Downs, project as regulars; Wong has good arm, power. Also moved half Price’s money. Deal at least comparable to what #DBacks got for Goldy, who cost less than Betts in walk year and had no other contracts attached.”

Whether you agree with Rosenthal’s people or not, the Paul Goldschmidt deal is certainly an interesting touchstone. Just a year ago, the Diamondbacks received Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young and a competitive balance round B draft selection in exchange for one season of Goldy. For simplified context, Betts is a 27-year-old stellar defensive right fielder coming off a 6.8 bWAR season, while Goldschmidt was a 31-year-old first baseman coming off a 5.4 bWAR season.

Of course, the dollar savings factor into a comparison to the Goldschmidt trade, as Goldy made just $14.5MM last season. The Diamondbacks trade was motivated more about returning value for a player they weren’t likely to extend. The Red Sox motivations are similar, though they’re also getting out from under David Price’s contract. Not for nothing, but Price remains a viable major league starter.

Also muddying the waters here is how one views Verdugo’s future. He’s long been a player projected for stardom, though a deep player pool and injuries slowed his ascent in Los Angeles. And there remain questions about his overall makeup as well. Still, he’ll turn just 24-years-old in May, and it wasn’t long ago that he was the top prospect in a Dodgers’ system that has continued to churn out big league players.

Last season was his first with regular playing time, and he made good with a .294/.342/.475 line with 12 home runs in 106 games before an oblique strain cost him most of the rest of the year. He’s got great bat-to-ball skills, and his defense is solid enough that he can man centerfield for a time if that’s a need. He’s a promising young player, but he’ll have big shoes to fill in Boston.

I’m giving you the chance to overrule Boston’s Chief Baseball Office Chaim Bloom. Which return would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

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