Randy Johnson’s Future
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has an in-depth look at the Randy Johnson situation. The legendary 45 year-old lefty was effective this year in 30 starts. It seems highly unlikely that he’ll retire just five wins from 300. There are concerns he would remain committed after winning those five games.
Piecoro says D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes hinted that he is not willing to go as high as $10MM for Johnson in 2009. The team seemingly doesn’t have much more than that to spend in total, and they have other needs. Also, the Diamondbacks are against incentive-based contracts. Still, Piecoro wonders if ownership could step in and mandate re-signing Johnson.
Johnson is right on the borderline for Type B status, but the D’Backs stand to pick up many draft picks for other players so they may not risk offering arbitration. Would Johnson pitch elsewhere? Piecoro feels that he favors the West Coast, making the Dodgers and Angels intriguing possibilities.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their setup for 2009:
C – Chris Snyder – $1.85MM+
C – Miguel Montero – $401K
1B – Chad Tracy – $4.75MM
2B –
SS – Stephen Drew – $1.5MM
3B – Mark Reynolds – $400K
IF – Augie Ojeda – $550K+
IF/OF – Chris Burke – $955K+
LF – Conor Jackson – $420K+
CF – Chris Young – $1.75MM
RF – Justin Upton – $1.3MM
OF – Eric Byrnes – $11MM
OF – Alex Romero – $400K
SP – Brandon Webb – $6.5MM
SP – Dan Haren – $7.5MM
SP – Doug Davis – $8.75MM
SP – Edgar Gonzalez – $411K+
SP – Max Scherzer – $1.075MM
RP – Chad Qualls – $1.3125MM+
RP – Jon Rauch – $2MM
RP – Tony Pena – $406K
RP – Yusmeiro Petit – $400K
RP – Doug Slaten – $401K
RP – Leo Rosales – $400K
RP – Billy Buckner – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Wil Ledezma – $620K+, Chris Burke – $955K+
The D’Backs have about $55MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Snyder, Burke, Jackson, Gonzalez, Qualls, and Ledezma. A few of those guys could be non-tendered, keeping the D’Backs under $60MM. They started ’08 at $66.2MM, though I believe the D’Backs take more of a long-term view toward payroll. MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert figures they’ll have less than $10MM to spend.
The Diamondbacks were in the middle of the NL for OBP and SLG. They have positional flexibility with Jackson, Reynolds, Tracy, and Byrnes, though only Jackson posted a strong OBP among those four.
Looking at the market, it probably makes sense to put Jackson at first base and acquire a left fielder if possible. Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Manny Ramirez are the top free agent left fielders. Bobby Abreu could also fit. However, these players will all cost more than $10MM a year. GM Josh Byrnes says he’s more likely to hit the free agent market than make trades, since the D’Backs traded so many prospects in ’08. Byrnes will have to find a bargain, maybe a Juan Rivera type. The D’Backs also need a second or third baseman depending on where Reynolds plays. There’s just not enough money unless payroll goes up.
The team’s pitching staff looks respectable, though losing Randy Johnson would hurt. I can’t see how they can re-sign him and add an offensive player for a total of $10MM. Scherzer will have to have a big year if Johnson leaves. With Qualls, Rauch, and Pena, it seems the pen can withstand the losses of Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon.
It’s kind of awkward having Byrnes as the highest-paid player on the team, as he could end up the fourth outfielder if Jackson plays left. With $22MM remaining on his deal (and a no-trade clause), the D’Backs would have to take on a bad contract in return. Nick Piecoro had an interesting idea with Luis Castillo.
Once again the D’Backs will look to improve offensively mainly through development of their young players. Young and Upton do seem poised for breakouts. It also seems likely the D’Backs will make a few midseason trades as they did in ’08.
D’Backs Rumors: Johnson, Webb, Byrnes
Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes talked to the media Monday afternoon; the transcript can be found here along with comments from beat writer Nick Piecoro. Let’s discuss.
- The D’Backs want to improve the offense and have good positional flexibility. However, Piecoro thinks it’s possible the team relies on improvement from young players rather than acquisitions.
- The team will wait a few more weeks before really engaging with free agent Randy Johnson. You get the impression the D’Backs have their limit for him, maybe in the $10MM range.
- Byrnes intends to be more active in free agency than he has in the past.
- The D’Backs will continue to talk with Brandon Webb about a contract extension (they can control him through 2010 already). Byrnes said Webb may want to see what C.C. Sabathia gets.
- In another post, Piecoro talks about Eric Byrnes‘ no-trade clause. Byrnes gives the impression he might waive it if he feels he’s not wanted. If Conor Jackson stays in left Byrnes could be the fourth outfielder heading into ’09.
Odds and Ends: Byrnes, Teixeira, Swisher
Random links for Tuesday…
- SI.com’s Jon Heyman notes that a Cy Young award for Johan Santana would lock in his 2014 option at $25MM.
- Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball wonders if the Mets might end up signing Ivan Rodriguez.
- The Jays officially received Fabio Castro to complete the Matt Stairs deal. Buster Olney had this one in August.
- Bummer to see Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos stepping down from blogging. He’s been my favorite Cardinals writer.
- Nick Piecoro wonders if Eric Byrnes could be traded for another bad contract player like Luis Castillo.
- The Red Sox treated Mark Teixeira poorly when he was drafted as an 18 year-old. That will have no bearing this winter, though.
- From last Friday…Nick Swisher is frustrated with his lack of playing time in Chicago. Doesn’t make him trade bait, though.
Will D’Backs Let Randy Johnson Leave?
Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News takes a look at the possibility of Randy Johnson leaving the Diamondbacks this winter. Ringolsby says the D’Backs aren’t sure if Johnson will remain committed after he gets the five wins needed to reach 300. Plus, Johnson doesn’t travel with the team these days. Arizona GM Josh Byrnes weighed in on the Big Unit, saying they’ll wait a few weeks before engaging in contract talks with him.
Johnson is an interesting free agent. He’s 45 years old, yet he posted a solid 3.91 ERA in 184 innings this year. His control is excellent, and he’s still a strikeout pitcher even though his average fastball is down to 90.8 mph. He earned a $10MM salary this year, with additional signing bonus money coming in the future. We’ll have to ask Eddie Bajek whether Johnson’s shutout last weekend nudged him into Type B territory. If so, the D’Backs will have to decide whether to offer arbitration.
Scherzer Open To Fall Ball
Yesterday, Max Scherzer, in hopes of being in the Diamondbacks rotation in 2009, said, "If they want me to get more innings, I would be more than happy to go to the Arizona Fall League to obtain those innings."
In this piece by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, it’s noted the Diamondbacks do not like to increase an innings count by more than 30 per season and Scherzer will be happy to finish around 60. According to Piecoro, Scherzer referenced a Sports Illustrated article – presumably Tom Verducci’s Year After Effect – and understands that having 60 major league innings under his belt does not guarantee he’ll be a starter next season.
The Diamondbacks conditioned Scherzer, a max-effort pitcher, as a starter in Triple-A, where he totaled 53 innings. If the Diamondbacks go ahead with having him pitch in the Arizona Fall League, I would expect them to monitor Scherzer’s workload and arm strength closely in 2009.
Odds and Ends: Lee, Rogers, Beltre, Darvish
Today’s random linkage…
- The Indians signed 21 year-old pitcher Chen-Chang Lee out of Taiwan. Anthony Castrovince has the scouting report. East Windup Chronicle says the bonus is in the $350-400K range.
- Kenny Rogers suggested Jim Leyland remove him from the rotation. Rogers still thinks he can pitch effectively next year at 44, however.
- Geoff Baker notes an extra benefit to delaying Adrian Beltre‘s surgery – the playing time could nudge him toward Type A status when he reaches free agency after the ’09 season.
- Ken Davidoff of Newsday says Yu Darvish will probably not be posted this winter but could be after the ’09 season. Davidoff says the Giants, Orioles, and D’Backs have been heavily scouting Japan this year.
- The Cubs are looking at contract extensions for Lou Piniella and Jim Hendry, according to Gordon Wittenmeyer.
D’Backs Face Decisions On Lyon, Rauch
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wrote Saturday about the tough decisions the D’Backs face on relievers Brandon Lyon and Jon Rauch.
With Lyon, the D’Backs have to decide whether to risk an arbitration offer. Would they want him back for ’09 on a $4-5MM contract? Lyon may make the decision easier for Arizona by falling out of Type B status. Then, there’d be no draft pick to gain. Lyon has a 7.52 ERA since June 1st.
Meanwhile Rauch’s contract requires the D’Backs decide on his 2010 option five days after this year’s World Series. The option is for $2.9MM; an easy call if you ignore Rauch’s last 20 innings or so.
The D’Backs also have Juan Cruz hitting free agency; he’s expected to sign elsewhere.
Odds and Ends: LaRoche, Bradley, Burnett
Digging into today’s random links…
- Joel Sherman looks at what went wrong for the Yankees this year. Did they fall too in love with their farm system?
- At least six teams have called the Pirates about third baseman Andy LaRoche in recent weeks. If LaRoche pans out and Pedro Alvarez comes aboard, the Bucs could have a surplus at some point.
- Craig Harris examines the rise of D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes.
- Eddie Bajek updated the Elias rankings for the AL 1B/OF/DH category. They’re fluctuating wildly. Eddie also did catchers for both leagues; Ivan Rodriguez is headed into Type B territory. Gregg Zaun lost Type B status.
- Mike Hindman conducted a roundtable asking what kind of contract the Rangers should offer Milton Bradley.
- 29 teams passed on Rays reliever Grant Balfour last spring. Now he has a 1.62 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 50 innings. Balfour’s been through a lot.
- Joe McDonald and Sean McAdam don’t see the Red Sox signing A.J. Burnett (or any big-name free agent starter).
- Padres CEO Sandy Alderson scoffed at the idea of a $40MM payroll for ’09. I never heard that figure tossed around; Buster Olney suggested the $50MM range.
- Maury Brown heard a rumor that Thomas Ricketts won the bid for the Cubs.
Week in Review: 9/7 – 9/13
Just a few weeks left in the regular season, but plenty of news here on MLBTR still. Let’s look back at the past week:
- The Mets received terrible news when they learned that their All-Star closer, Billy Wagner, will need Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2009. Wagner does not expect to return to the Mets, and apparently the Mets have already told him his 2010 option will not be exercised. The Mets seem likely to be in the Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes mix. On that note, Fuentes will probably not return to Colorado next season.
- I’m taking this one with a grain of salt, but it sure makes for a headline: Mark McGwire would consider playing again? Big Mac says he can still hit if someone wants him. However, it seems to me there’s another 40-something former slugger with steroid allegations who says the same thing, and no one’s biting on that front…
- Adam Dunn hasn’t heard anything about a possible extension from the Diamondbacks, but he’s not worried about it. He doesn’t sound too pleased with former teammate Bronson Arroyo these days, however…
- Speaking of Dunn, the Reds officially acquired Micah Owings as part of their trade of him this week.
- Tim updated the Offseason Outlook series, with installments for the Nationals, Royals, and Pirates. He also took a look at some of the potential big-name free agents following the 2009 season.
- The Elias Rankings for American League and National League relievers are out.
- Two minor moves: The A’s released designated hitter Mike Sweeney, and the Brewers claimed pitcher Todd Coffey.