Make Or Break Year: Jair Jurrjens
The Braves boast an enviable collection of young pitchers, enough that they were able to trade Derek Lowe this offseason, lose Tim Hudson to injury, and still go 10-7 early on. Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, and Tommy Hanson have carried the bulk of the workload while Randall Delgado cuts his teeth as the fifth starter and Julio Teheran bides his time in Triple-A. One guy who has not carried his weight so far is right-hander Jair Jurrjens.
Jurrjens, 26, made a fourth straight disaster start last night – five runs in three innings to the Dodgers – and was demoted to Triple-A after the game. He's allowed 17 runs and put 38 men on base in 16 1/3 innings across those four starts after posting a 2.96 ERA and being named to the NL All-Star Team last year. Jurrjens did finish last season on the disabled list though, missing a total of 44 games with right knee inflammation. He had surgery on the same knee after the 2010 season and has made a total of five trips to the disabled list since his debut in 2007.
The biggest physical concern with Jurrjens is not necessarily his knee, but his declining fastball velocity. PitchFX data says he averaged between 91.2 and 91.9 mph every year from 2007-2010 before dropping off to 89.1 mph last season and 88.4 mph in the early going this season. The start-by-start plot of his fastball velocity range is troubling, especially since he had shoulder problems in 2007 (inflammation) and 2010 (stiffness). Only once in his four years had Jurrjens topped 200 innings (2009) and only twice has he topped 160 innings (2008 and 2009).
Although his ERA has fluctuated through the years, Jurrjens has maintained a steady walk (3.2 BB/9) and strikeout (6.1 K/9) rate through his career. He started his time in the big leagues by getting a healthy amount of ground balls (49.6% from 2007-2008), though he's become more susceptible to fly balls in recent years (41.7% from 2009-2012). After producing 3.7 and 3.9 wins above replacement in 2008 and 2009 according to FanGraphs, respectively, he's produced just 2.2 WAR total in the two years and three weeks since.
Jurrjens will make $5.5MM this season, his second year of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two. The Braves made no secret of their willingness to trade him this past offseason, most notably offering him to the Orioles as part of a package for Adam Jones. They also had talks with the Rockies, Red Sox, Royals, Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Reds. Given his relatively high salary, two more years of arbitration eligibility, his injury problems, and all the young arms in the rotation around him, Jurrjens suddenly looks like a potential non-tender candidate if he can't right the ship in Triple-A and contribute to the big league club this season.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
NL East Notes: Jurrjens, Utley, Tejada, Wright
Here are some links from the NL East on the day Chipper Jones turns 40 and Jose Reyes returns to Citi Field…
- The Braves optioned right-hander Jair Jurrjens to Triple-A Gwinnett following a disappointing start against the Dodgers yesterday. The right-hander has a 9.37 ERA through four starts, so he's returning to the minors, where he last spent considerable time in 2007. Jurrjens' path to free agency could be affected if he spends two months or more in the minor leagues.
- Phillies manager Charlie Manuel hasn’t ruled out the possibility of playing Chase Utley at first base when he's activated from the disabled list, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. If Utley returns before Ryan Howard, the Phillies could mix things up defensively. "We'll figure that out when we get there," Manuel said.
- Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada has the unenviable task of replacing Reyes, but as Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com shows, the 22-year-old has already earned the confidence of his team. Meanwhile, Tejada says Reyes was a "great teammate" in New York before signing a $106MM free agent contract with the Marlins this past offseason.
- Ken Davidoff of the New York Post suggests there's no rush to lock David Wright up long-term despite the third baseman's hot start. Davidoff points out that it's April and that Wright is under team control through 2013. If he's still hitting this well when summer trade talks begin in earnest, the Mets will face a major decision, but we aren't there yet.
Extension Candidate: Brandon Beachy
It's not easy for potential stars to arrive in the Major Leagues with less fanfare than Brandon Beachy in the present day media environment. Beachy, who originally signed as a non-drafted free agent, has followed up a standout debut season with three strong starts this April. It could be time for the Braves to consider an extension.
Beachy has an impressive 3.27 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 35.9% ground ball rate at the Major League level. His leverage in contract talks will be limited by his relative inexperience, however. He has just 31 starts and 176 innings in one-plus years with the Braves (one year and 14 days of service time through 2011).
Madison Bumgarner recently established a record for pitchers with one-plus years of service time, obtaining a six-year, $35MM guarantee from the Giants. In my view, Beachy doesn’t have a case for a similar deal. The 25-year-old right-hander has 176 career innings — approximately 50% of Bumgarner's total. He also trails Bumgarner in wins, starts and ERA, so it’s hard to imagine a compelling case for anything in the $35MM range.
But Bumgarner's deal was exceptional. Most starting pitchers who sign extensions after one-plus MLB seasons obtain four-year contracts in the $10-13MM range that tend to include multiple club options. The extensions ensure that the pitchers are paid handsomely through their second arbitration seasons and provide the teams with options on two additional seasons.
In recent years, James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Anderson, Wade Davis and Cory Luebke have signed four-year deals in the $10-13MM range. Beachy's current numbers are reasonably similar to the ones Anderson and Davis had at the time of their extensions. Beachy trails Jimenez and Shields in all-important bulk stats like innings, starts and wins, but boasts more impressive rate stats. Luebke, who signed most recently, compares especially well with Beachy. They have similar year to year totals and career stats, so the Braves could argue convincingly that Beachy should be in line for a similar four-year deal in the $12MM range. It would be difficult for Icon Sports Management to argue that much separation exists between Beachy and Luebke.
Unlike many top MLB players, Beachy didn’t obtain a life-changing bonus when he signed his first professional contract (the Braves offered $20K). The security of an extension might appeal to the one-time non-drafted free agent.
Meanwhile, the Braves haven’t signed Boras Corporation clients Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens to extensions. It’s unclear whether this reflects hesitation from a front office with reservations about the pitchers’ health or resistance from an agency that typically eschews extensions that delay players' free agency. Either way, Braves GM Frank Wren could turn to Beachy should he want to lock at least one young starter up long-term.
The cost — likely $12MM or so — is significant. But it’s not the kind of contract that’s going to set a franchise back long-term. I would consider a four-year deal in the $12MM range a team-friendly one as long as the Braves obtained multiple club options in the process. Beachy’s only going to get more expensive — a five-year deal in the $30MM range might be attainable within six months — so this is Atlanta’s best chance to sign Beachy at this rate. If they believe in his ability to sustain his success and stay on the field, they should make him an offer now.
Photo by Daniel Shirey courtesy of US Presswire.
Quick Hits: Wright, Bowden, Jurrjens
The Rays locked Evan Longoria up to a historic six-year, $17.5MM extension on this date in 2008. Then a rookie with just six games of experience, Longoria has since evolved into one of the game's top players. Here are today's links…
- An insider recently told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that he has a gut feeling the Mets will extend David Wright (Twitter link). However, an extension for the hot-hitting third baseman isn’t a priority at the moment. The Mets have a $16MM club option for Wright's 2013 season.
- Michael Bowden hadn’t been placed on waivers as of yesterday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. The Red Sox recently designated Bowden for assignment along with Luis Exposito, who has since been claimed by the Orioles.
- Tim Lincecum, Kevin Youkilis and Jair Jurrjens are among the players who may be making their general managers nervous so far this season, Jim Bowden writes at ESPN.com.
Rosenthal On Lannan, Greinke, Cardinals, McCann
Highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- The Nationals continue to look for a taker for John Lannan but his $5MM salary is only part of the problem. A rival exec points out that any team that gets Lannan might prefer to let him go this offseason rather than go to arbitration with him, further diminishing his value.
- A rival executive says that Joey Votto's ten-year, $225MM contract with the Reds could affect Zack Greinke's talks with the Brewers. In the past, a team like Milwaukee could claim that a small market team could never afford such a deal, but that no longer seems like a fair argument.
- The Cardinals talked about trading Kyle Lohse or Jake Westbrook to free up space for Albert Pujols but it now looks like they made the right decision to hang on to both. While the two pitchers will earn a combined $20MM+ this season, both reported in excellent condition this season and are off to strong early starts.
- The Braves are locked into their local TV deal for the next 20 years – a deal that could soon become the worst in the sport. Meanwhile, their payroll is stagnant and while the farm system is deep in pitchers and shortstops, it's not terribly deep in other areas. Rosenthal can't imagine that the future looks promising for catcher Brian McCann as he is two years away from free agency.
Stark On Dodgers, Fielder, Rays, Braves
It’s tempting to assume the Dodgers will spend aggressively on free agents once new ownership is in place, but Jayson Stark of ESPN.com says it’s not that simple. Here are Stark’s latest rumors, starting in Los Angeles…
- Former Braves and Nationals president Stan Kasten, a key member of the Dodgers’ new leadership group, spent conservatively on outside free agents while in Atlanta, and the Nationals didn’t start spending aggressively until Kasten had moved on. Agents say spending lavishly on free agents is not Kasten’s style.
- Longtime Braves GM John Schuerholz "wouldn't be surprised" if the Dodgers spend big here and there, but he doesn’t expect splashy signings to become habitual.
- For the first time ever, no MLB team has a payroll below $50MM.
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin told Stark that National League teams have trouble competing for free agent sluggers who may have to become designated hitters late in their careers. Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols joined American League teams on long-term deals this past offseason. “When the length of those deals got to nine and 10 years, we just couldn't compete," Melvin said.
- The Rays aren’t looking for a short-term solution behind the plate, but they’d like to add an everyday catcher who can contribute for years, according to Stark.
- Schuerholz, who’s now the Braves president, says the team hopes to retain Brian McCann long-term, even though there are “no guarantees” that’s possible.
Fontenot Deciding Between Phillies, Braves
Mike Fontenot is deciding between two NL East rivals, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter). The free agent infielder has narrowed his choices to the Braves and Phillies.
Fontenot posted a .227/.304/.377 line in 252 plate appearances at second base, shortstop and third base last year, but the Giants released him toward the end of Spring Training. The Fielding Bible Volume III suggests Fontenot provides adequate defense around the infield. The Braves are relying on rookie Tyler Pastornicky at shortstop, while various Phillies infielders have dealt with injuries early on this year.
This post was first published on Friday, April 13th.
Olney On McCann, Hunter, Yankees
ESPN.com’s Buster Olney discussed Brian McCann’s next contract, Torii Hunter’s next team and a possible trade for the Yankees in his latest Insider-only column. Here are the highlights…
- There’s been little traction in extension talks between the Braves and McCann, according to Olney. However, the Braves control the catcher’s rights through 2013 with a $12MM club option. Olney suggests the 28-year-old could ask for more than Yadier Molina obtained from the Cardinals ($75MM for five years).
- Olney expects many teams to have interest in Hunter when he hits free agency this offseason. The right fielder has said he’ll be looking to sign with a team that has a real shot at winning the World Series.
- The Yankees would be open to dealing a starter, but haven't discussed any trades involving Freddy Garcia so far.
Cafardo On Kinsler, Cox, Damon, Prior, Lannan
It's clear to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that the collapse of last September bothered some Red Sox players more than others. While some are using it as fuel for motivation, others seem eager to leave it in the past completely. Former Braves manager Bobby Cox told Cafardo that he preferred the latter. "The way I looked at it, you let it go both ways. If we win the World Series, I’d say enjoy it but time to get ready for the next year. Every season is different. I don’t think there should be carryover either way," Cox said. Here's more from Cafardo..
- Major league sources say that Ian Kinsler should average $13-$14MM over five or six years once his deal is done. While he and the Rangers couldn’t come to terms by Opening Day, it’s not out of the question that something gets done during the season. Brandon Phillips of the Reds should be in the Dan Uggla range – about five-years for $60MM. Dustin Pedroia's six-year, $40.5MM deal with the Red Sox now looks like bargain as it goes through 2014 with an $11MM option for 2015.
- When asked if he would consider managing again, Cox didn’t give a resounding no. "I don’t know. I don’t know. I’m done," he said. But he added, “I miss it. I miss it every day." While Cox has deep ties to Dodgers president Stan Kasten, he said he would not consider going back to being a GM. Cox is signed to be an adviser for the Braves through the 2015 season.
- When asked about Johnny Damon remaining on the open market, one AL GM was perplexed and suggested that the Rays, Indians, Orioles, and Tigers could all use him.
- Cafardo's "all-free agent team" features right-hander Roy Oswalt, Damon in center field, Hideki Matsui as DH, Vladimir Guerrero in left field, Magglio Ordonez in right, catcher Ivan Rodriguez, first baseman Derrek Lee, second baseman Aaron Miles, shortstop Felipe Lopez, third baseman Casey Blake. Oswalt tops the rotation alongside Javier Vazquez, who he notes has not officially retired. Cafardo also lists Mike Gonzalez and Arthur Rhodes as the top relievers available.
- Mark Prior’s throwing sessions have looked decent, according to major league sources, and he may be getting ready to throw for teams soon.
- Nationals pitcher John Lannan remains in limbo as he pitches in Triple-A, but as injuries mount his trade request may be heard. The left-hander is only 27 and could fit on many staffs as a fourth or fifth starter, but his $5MM salary is an obvious hurdle.
Smoltz Talks Returning NL Pitchers
It happens every spring. Pitchers nurse shoulders, backs and elbows to health in preparation for the season. But there are no guarantees for any injured pitcher, regardless of his resume.
“You’ve got to know what your body can and can’t do,” John Smoltz told me in a recent interview. “Not every pitcher’s going to be perfectly healthy their whole career, so there has to be some degree of discomfort that you have to pitch through. Once you learn how to do that, you’re able to overcome more.”
Smoltz speaks from experience. He recovered from Tommy John surgery to reinvent himself as a dominant closer and worked through shoulder problems to strike out nearly a batter per inning as a 42-year-old. Now an analyst with MLB Network, he recently caught up with a number of high-profile pitchers returning from injuries for his role on MLB Tonight.
When Smoltz signed with the 2009 Cardinals, Adam Wainwright was at his peak, in the midst of a season that would see him post a 2.63 ERA in a league-leading 233 innings. Two and a half years later, Wainwright’s returning from ligament replacement surgery and expectations are lofty.
“That’s where Tommy John surgery is a little misunderstood,” Smoltz said. “Adam basically is looked upon this year I think unfairly as a big cog to replace the departure of Albert Pujols and now possibly the delay of Chris Carpenter. That’s an unfair situation for him to go in, since he needs the same kind of time and grace that everybody does returning from Tommy John.”
Regaining full strength following Tommy John surgery took more than a year for Smoltz, who missed the 2000 season recovering from the operation. But he acknowledges recovery times vary from pitcher to pitcher and anticipates a strong season from Wainwright.
“Can he go back to the Cy Young type numbers? I don’t know,” Smoltz said. “I think it’s a little unfair [to expect that] the first year. But I certainly can see him doing easily some of the things that we’ve expected him to do in that first year.”
Smoltz believes Marlins right-hander Josh Johnson will rebound from a disappointing 2011 season. In fact, Johnson may have benefitted from his team's cautious approach late last season. He didn't pitch after May 16th last year, and Smoltz suggested the Marlins could have rushed him back under different circumstances.
“That’s a luxury," he said. "I expect that everything is where it needs to be and that he’s going to go out there and, unfortunately for the hitters, probably dominate.”
Smoltz last played for the Braves four years ago, but he spent two decades in Atlanta, so he knows the organization as well as anyone. He says former teammates Tim Hudson (back) and Jair Jurrjens (knee) must make most of their starts to have successful seasons. The Braves will be relying on their starters, since a repeat performance from their relievers may be unrealistic.
“There’s no way the bullpen can do what they did last year with the amount of times they were used,” Smoltz said. “I think the starting pitching has got to find a way to pitch some much-needed innings over the course of the season.”
A few months ago, the Braves seemed to have an abundance of starting pitching, and Mike Minor seemed expendable. Now that Julio Teheran has been sent to the minor leagues and Arodys Vizcaino is out for the season, Minor’s a key component of the Braves’ pitching staff. “Sometimes the best trades you make are the ones you don’t make,” Smoltz noted.
Mets fans who wish their team had never traded for Johan Santana might agree with that sentiment whole-heartedly. But there’s optimism that the Mets will see some return from the $24MM left-hander in 2012. Smoltz says the two-time Cy Young Award winner seems just as motivated as the 26-year-old Jurrjens.
“They both have the urgency to want to pitch, but it’s different,” he said. “You’ve got a guy in Johan Santana with all of the hardware, big contract. He wants to get out there and compete. I’ve heard nothing but unbelievable things.”
Cy Young Awards are a motivator for pitchers coming back from injury, but contracts also lurk in the background. Even Smoltz, a future Hall of Famer, wasn’t able to generate interest based on his resume alone during his playing days. Successfully returning from an injury can make all the difference when it’s time for a new contract.
“In sports you’re as good as your last impression,” Smoltz says.
For these pitchers, the 2012 season represents the opportunity to create new impressions and erase old ones.
John Smoltz will be a game analyst for the MLB Network Showcase schedule this season beginning on Friday, April 20 featuring the Red Sox v. Yankees at 3pm ET. MLB Network will feature a package of live 30 games featuring all 30 Clubs beginning on Thursday, April 5 between the Dodgers & Padres. Photo courtesy of US Presswire.