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Reds, Aaron Wilkerson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Reds are in agreement with right-hander Aaron Wilkerson on a minor league contract, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. Wilkerson returns to the affiliated ranks after spending a season and a half in Korea.

A former Red Sox minor leaguer, Wilkerson reached the majors with the Brewers in 2017. He pitched parts of three seasons with Milwaukee, allowing a 6.88 ERA across 35 1/3 innings. After the Brewers outrighted him from their 40-man roster, Wilkerson moved to the foreign ranks. He spent a season with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He returned stateside on a minor league contract with the Athletics in 2023. The A’s granted him his release after 14 Triple-A appearances so he could sign on with the Lotte Giants in the Korea Baseball Organization.

Wilkerson spent a season and a half with the Giants. He posted a 2.26 ERA over 13 starts during the second half of the ’23 season. That earned him a new deal for the 2024 campaign. Wilkerson took the ball 32 times and put up a 3.84 ERA through 196 2/3 innings. He struck out 20.5% of opposing hitters against a 3.3% walk percentage.

The Giants added Tucker Davidson and re-signed Charlie Barnes to serve as their foreign-born pitchers for the upcoming season. That made it apparent that Wilkerson would not return to the team. (KBO clubs are limited to two foreign pitchers and three non-Korean players overall.) Wilkerson is likely to open the season as rotation or long relief depth for the Reds at Triple-A Louisville.

Looking For A Match In A Spencer Torkelson Trade

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The Tigers rearranged their infield when they signed Gleyber Torres last month. He’ll play second base, a move that pushes Colt Keith to first base. The trickle-down effect is to block the clearest path to at-bats for 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson.

As one would expect, Detroit’s baseball operations president Scott Harris pushed back against the idea that adding Torres squeezed Torkelson out of the picture. “My message to Tork was: ’if you have a big offseason and a big Spring Training, there’s a role for you on this team.’ This team needs more right-handed power and we’ve seen Tork do that in the past,” Harris said last month.

That may be true, but it’s also not difficult to imagine a change-of-scenery trade. In an MLBTR poll last week, a plurality of respondents felt that Torkelson would be dealt before Opening Day. At times, he has flashed the power that made him a top pick. He hit 31 homers in 2023. While his overall batting line wasn’t great, a .238/.318/.498 showing in that season’s second half provided hope that he’d taken a step forward. Even if he didn’t look like an all-around impact bat, he showed the potential for plus power. Torkelson’s production tanked in 2024, as he hit just .219/.295/.374 with 10 longballs over 92 MLB games. He spent more than a third of the season in Triple-A, where he drew a ton of walks but struck out at a 31% clip.

This may be the last opportunity for the Tigers to recoup anything of note in a Torkelson trade. While he certainly doesn’t have the value he had during his prospect days, Detroit would find some interest if they shopped him. Another down year could make him a DFA or non-tender candidate as he heads into what’d be his first year of arbitration. It’s possible Torkelson spends enough time in the minors this year that he doesn’t reach arbitration, but that would burn his last option season. If the Tigers keep him in Triple-A for that long, they’d be hard-pressed to carry him on the 2026 Opening Day roster.

Which teams are best suited to take a flier on Torkelson? Every team could theoretically fit, since he’s set for a salary around the league minimum and has one minor league option remaining. Still, it doesn’t make much sense for a team that has both first base and designated hitter solidified (i.e. Astros, Dodgers, Braves) to give up anything of note just to keep Torkelson in Triple-A. We’re looking for clubs that could realistically give him 400 or more plate appearances going into a make-or-break year.

Best Fits (listed alphabetically)

  • Giants: San Francisco has been loosely tied to Pete Alonso this offseason. While it seems they’re reluctant to make a multi-year commitment at first base, they’ve looked for ways to add power. Installing a potential 30-homer bat at shortstop in Willy Adames helps, but the Giants are lacking pop in their first base/designated hitter mix. LaMonte Wade Jr. is an OBP-focused hitter who has come up in trade rumors. The Giants could use a committee approach at DH with the likes of Wilmer Flores, Brett Wisely and former top prospect Marco Luciano. While Torkelson would add another right-handed bat to a lineup that skews to that side, he carries a higher ceiling than Flores provides at this stage of his career. Wade will be a free agent next offseason, so there’s room for both Torkelson and top prospect Bryce Eldridge as a long-term first base/DH combination if both players work out.
  • Mariners: Seattle’s only acquisition of note this offseason is the signing of Donovan Solano to a $3.5MM free agent deal. He’s a righty hitter who may spend the majority of his time at first base. Solano is a part-time player who has only reached 400 plate appearances in a season once. He’s going into his age-37 campaign. Solano can factor in at second and third base, neither of which are settled in Seattle. The M’s could find at-bats for Torkelson, especially if they offload part of the Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver salaries via trade, though his kind of power-over-hit approach hasn’t traditionally played well at T-Mobile Park.
  • Marlins: Most of the time, these trade fit exercises focus on competitive teams. Rebuilding clubs don’t often acquire major league talent. Torkelson’s four years of contractual control make this a different situation. If Miami still feels he’s a long-term regular, there’s a straightforward case for taking a flier. The Marlins could play Torkelson regularly for a season or two and market him as a more valuable trade chip down the line. If he flops, it’s not likely that they’ve taken at-bats away from any core pieces. Presumptive first baseman Jonah Bride hit well over 272 plate appearances last season, but he’s 29 years old and has a career .232/.325/.342 slash line in the majors. Deyvison De Los Santos could get at-bats at DH if the Fish want to give him a look.
  • Padres: San Diego has yet to make a payroll-clearing trade from their infield. If they don’t, they’ll run things back with Luis Arraez at first base. They don’t have anyone slated for regular DH work, though, and payroll space is limited. Torkelson would be an affordable bat they could plug in there to divide time with Arraez between first base and designated hitter.
  • Rockies: The Miami logic applies to the Rockies — arguably even more so. Former first-round pick Michael Toglia is a career .206/.287/.406 hitter. He hit 25 homers but struck out in almost a third of his plate appearances last year. He’s not demonstrably better than Torkelson, at least, and the Rox could be intrigued by the latter’s power upside at Coors Field. The DH spot is open after Charlie Blackmon’s retirement. Colorado can’t rely on Kris Bryant to stay healthy.

Plausible Long Shots

  • Blue Jays: Toronto has kicked around the idea of playing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base more often. They don’t have a clear option for regular DH work. That Pete Alonso is on their radar suggests they’re not opposed to adding a first baseman. That could be an approach specific to Alonso rather than a buy-low candidate like Torkelson, though.
  • Brewers: Milwaukee doesn’t have room for Torkelson right now. They’d no doubt love to offload a good portion of Rhys Hoskins’ $18MM salary. That’s easier than done, but if they line up a Hoskins deal, they could view Torkelson as a viable (and much more affordable) target to backfill first base.
  • Reds: Cincinnati’s infield has gone from a perceived area of depth to its most significant weakness within a year. They’ve already attempted to address it this offseason with the acquisition of Gavin Lux to rotate between second and third base. First base remains a big question mark after Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s injury-plagued season and the down year from Jeimer Candelario. There’s enough rebound potential with both players that the Reds may not feel Torkelson is an upgrade, but it should at least be on the table.
  • Twins: Minnesota is looking for a right-handed bat. That’s likelier to come in the outfield, but they also haven’t addressed first base since losing Carlos Santana to free agency. Torkelson could compete with Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien for reps between first and DH. Intra-division trades are rarely easy to pull off, especially when both teams are aiming for a playoff spot. However, a Torkelson trade would be (at least to an extent) an acknowledgement on Detroit’s part that they don’t believe he’ll be the player he was expected to become as a prospect. That could reduce their hesitancy about moving him to another AL Central team.

Stan Kasten, David Rubenstein Speak On MLB’s Economics

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The Dodgers introduced their latest big-ticket free agent signee on Thursday. Team president Stan Kasten was among those in attendance at the press conference to celebrate Tanner Scott joining the club on a four-year free agent deal.

Asked about the Dodgers’ second consecutive monster offseason, Kasten defended the organization’s spending. “This is really good for baseball. I have no question about it,” he told reporters (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). Kasten pointed out that MLB’s playoff volatility reduces the chance for any individual team to post a dynastic run of World Series titles. He argued that the Dodgers’ roster-building approach should energize both their own fanbase and those of other clubs who want to see them fail.

“On the entertainment side, which is what we are, it’s really good when there’s one beloved team by their fans who come out in record numbers, leading all of baseball in attendance, while that same team can be hated and lead baseball in road attendance. That’s a win-win for baseball,” Kasten said.

Needless to say, not everyone outside Los Angeles shares that opinion. ESPN’s Jeff Passan published a lengthy column looking at both the Dodgers’ successful Roki Sasaki pursuit and their overall success in both free agency and internal player development. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers have gotten backlash not only from opposing fans but from rival front offices. That’s in response to both L.A.’s overall willingness to spend and the level of deferrals they’ve included in most of those contracts. Readers are encouraged to check out Passan’s piece in full.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects the Dodgers for a luxury tax payroll around $375MM. The Phillies have the second-highest layout at roughly $308MM. The Yankees are the only other team above $300MM by that estimate. The gap between the Dodgers and the 30th-ranked Marlins is almost $300MM.

Passan writes that the payroll disparity (plus the $765MM guarantee which Juan Soto secured from the Mets) has led to a “rekindling” of talks amongst owners who hope for the implementation of a salary cap. New Orioles owner David Rubenstein, who purchased the franchise from the Angelos family last spring, is among those in support.

“I wish it would be the case that we would have a salary cap in baseball the way other sports do, and maybe eventually we will, but we don’t have that now,” Rubenstein told Yahoo Finance at this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos. “I suspect we’ll probably have something closer to (the salary caps and floors) the NFL and the NBA have, but there’s no guarantee of that.”

A cap, of course, would need to be collectively bargained. Major League Baseball’s owners have attempted to implement a cap in many previous CBA negotiations. The MLB Players Association has refused to budge on that issue, as it remains strongly opposed to putting fixed limits on players’ earning power. The luxury tax is designed to curtail spending at the top of the market. It has indeed served as a deterrent for some big-market franchises but obviously is a barrier which teams are free to cross if ownership is willing.

“I think the big city teams have some advantages. Now, in Los Angeles, they have another advantage,” Rubenstein added. “They have Japanese players, [a] number of them that they got like Shohei, and people in Japan really love watching the Dodgers, and they sell a lot of merchandise in Japan for Dodgers players.”

A salary cap would not have directly influenced the Sasaki signing. His earning power was hard-capped by MLB’s international signing limit for amateurs. Sasaki qualified because he hasn’t turned 25. He signed for a $6.5MM bonus that is hundreds of millions of dollars below what he would’ve commanded had he been a true free agent. The Dodgers’ spending may have indirectly influenced his decision — he’s joining the defending champions on a roster that already had a pair of Japanese superstars in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — but the geographic and endorsement reasons for his signing are outside the purview of a cap.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that many fans are frustrated by how this offseason has transpired. More than two-thirds of respondents to a recent MLBTR poll indicated they hoped for a salary cap to be implemented during the next round of collective bargaining, which will take place after the 2026 season. Roughly half of respondents said they’d be willing to sacrifice the entire ’27 season to a work stoppage if it meant the league could successfully leverage the players union into agreeing to a cap. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Tim Dierkes discussed the situation in greater detail on this week’s edition of our podcast.

Deferrals are another source of agitation for many fans, particularly after Ohtani’s deal that deferred $680MM of his $700MM guarantee. The Dodgers are neither the first team nor the only current club to defer significant money. The Nationals had deferrals on a few deals (e.g. Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin) that were crucial to their 2019 World Series win. The Blue Jays deferred around two-thirds of the salary on Anthony Santander’s contract just this week. Still, the Dodgers have deferred a much greater amount of money than anyone else within the past year-plus. Ohtani, Will Smith, Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández, Tommy Edman and Tanner Scott have all deferred payments on recent contracts.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes covered shortly after the Ohtani signing, the deferrals are not really a workaround the luxury tax. In many cases, those contracts’ net present value — which adjusts the deferrals for inflation — ended up around expectations. As Passan notes, the CBA requires teams to set aside money for the future salaries within two years of signing a contract that includes deferrals. Passan points out that the deferrals and significant signing bonuses, which many of those deals included, are advantageous for the players to minimize taxes under California law though.

None of this will change in this offseason or next. We’re less than two years away from the expiration of the CBA and what seems likely to be another offseason lockout. These conversations will take on greater urgency as that draws nearer.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Okey To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers announced their group of non-roster invitees to big league camp. They revealed in that announcement that they’ve re-signed catcher Chris Okey to a minor league deal. Right-hander Justin Jarvis and outfielder Justin Dean, neither of whom has reached the majors, also receive MLB invites after signing minor league contracts earlier in the offseason.

Okey, who turned 30 last month, has nine games of major league experience. He appeared in seven games for the Reds in 2022 and suited up twice for the Angels two seasons ago. The former second-round pick signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers going into last season. He hit .236/.283/.327 through 45 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City. Okey carries a .242/.306/.363 batting line across 769 Triple-A plate appearances.

Will Smith, Austin Barnes and Hunter Feduccia are all on the 40-man roster. Top prospect Dalton Rushing (who also received an invite to big league camp) is likely headed back to Oklahoma City to start the season. Okey figures to back him up at the top minor league level. Feduccia still has two option years remaining and will probably also be in Triple-A as long as Smith and Barnes are healthy.

Jarvis, 24, is a former fifth-round pick by Milwaukee. The Brewers traded him to the Mets for Mark Canha at the 2023 deadline. Jarvis started 10 of 28 appearances between New York’s top two affiliates last season. He combined for a 4.55 earned run average with decent if unspectacular strikeout (21.9%) and walk (7.8%) marks. Dean is a 28-year-old who spent most of last year with Atlanta’s Double-A team. He hit .244/.332/.321 but stole 47 bases in 92 games. He can play all three outfield positions.

Cubs, Astros Still Discussing Pressly; Tigers No Longer In The Mix

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7:37pm: Nightengale reports that the Tigers are no longer in the running. If Pressly does agree to move, it’s expected to be to the Cubs.

6:57pm: The Astros have officially asked Ryan Pressly whether he’d approve a trade to the Cubs, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that they’ve also asked the reliever if he’d accept a deal to the Tigers. Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic first reported this afternoon that the Tigers had been in discussions with Houston about Pressly.

In any case, it seems the ball is firmly in Pressly’s court. Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Astros have reached a “tentative” agreement with at least one of those teams, which is obviously conditional on Pressly waiving the no-trade rights. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that the Cubs feel the holdups on the no-trade protection are “resolvable.”

Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with at least 10 years of MLB service and five-plus service years with his current team. He grew up in the Dallas area and has pitched in Houston since the 2018 trade deadline. His wife Katharine is a Houston native. It’s not out of the question that he and his family simply prefer to stay there.

Pressly combined for 110 appearances between 2023-24, which triggered a $14MM vesting option on his deal. That’s probably a little above market value but not dramatically so. José Leclerc and Andrew Kittredge each signed $10MM free agent contracts this winter. Blake Treinen, who is six months older than Pressly, landed two years at $11MM annually.

After serving as Houston’s closer between 2020-23, Pressly moved into a setup role last year. That was in response to their late strike to add Josh Hader on a five-year free agent deal. He had a solid season, working to a 3.49 earned run average through 56 2/3 frames. Pressly’s strikeout rate dropped to a league average 23.8% clip — his lowest mark since his 2018 breakout —  but he posted a solid 7.4% walk rate while picking up 25 holds.

The Cubs and Tigers have both been exploring the closer market. Each would presumably give Pressly the chance to return to the ninth inning. Chicago has a few less experienced pitchers (e.g. Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller) who could compete for saves. It’s a similar story in Detroit, where Beau Brieske, Jason Foley, Will Vest and Tyler Holton are part of what would projects as a closer by committee group. The Tigers have a strong relief group but lean heavily on their bullpen in games not started by Tarik Skubal. Adding Pressly would solidify the back end. He’s a known commodity for skipper A.J. Hinch, who managed him in Houston between 2018-19.

White Sox Notes: Free Agency, Robert, Montgomery

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White Sox general manager Chris Getz spoke with reporters on Thursday in advance of this weekend’s SoxFest. The second-year baseball operations leader indicated the team was unlikely to make any significant moves for the remainder of the offseason.

“For the most part, we feel like we’ve got our roster. Yeah, it’s just a matter of getting to Spring Training and prepping for Opening Day,” Getz said (link via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin). While he left open the possibility for “an addition here and there,” it doesn’t seem the Sox expect to do much else before the season gets underway.

That’s to be expected. The White Sox are coming off the worst season in modern baseball history. They certainly weren’t going to be major players in free agency. They’ve somewhat surprisingly signed five MLB free agent deals this winter, though none goes beyond this year. Martín Pérez ($5MM), Josh Rojas ($3.5MM), Mike Tauchman ($2MM), Austin Slater ($1.8MM) and Bryse Wilson ($1.1MM) are guaranteed a combined $13.4MM. They’ve added backup catcher Matt Thaiss and lefty reliever Cam Booser via minor trades.

While the Sox surely hope they’ll be able to flip some of their free agent acquisitions at the deadline, no one from that group is going to net more than a marginal return even if they play well in the first half. Chicago’s biggest decisions were tabbing Will Venable as manager and sending Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for a four-player prospect return headlined by Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery. Crochet was easily the Sox’s top remaining trade chip.

That title now falls to Luis Robert Jr. The star center fielder is coming off the worst season of his career. Robert hit .224/.278/.379 through 425 plate appearances. Few players had a sharper drop-off relative to their 2023 production. Robert finished 12th in AL MVP balloting two years ago. He played elite defense and hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and 20 stolen bases.

Robert is the only player on the Sox roster who has the ceiling to net them a franchise-changing trade return. That very likely wouldn’t be on the table this winter, though, so it’s logical for Chicago to hold him until the deadline. While Getz didn’t firmly shut the door on trading Robert before Opening Day, he didn’t sound eager to deal the 27-year-old.

“We’re open minded, we’re not looking to move anyone,” the GM said (link via Andrew Seligman of The Associated Press). “With that being said, there are other teams that are working through the free agent process perhaps and there could be some opportunities to have dialogue. We do feel like the majority of our moves have been made. But with that being said, we’re not quite there yet and I look forward to getting this group together out in Arizona.”

Robert will be the Sox’s most important player in the season’s first few months. He’s playing on a $15MM salary in the final guaranteed season of his pre-debut contract extension. He’s guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on $20MM club options covering the 2026-27 campaigns. If Robert finds anything near his ’23 form, Chicago would market two and a half seasons of club control over a star outfielder. If he plays like he did last season, they’d be looking at middling returns on a player who might get bought out at the end of the season. The Sox have already seen the latter situation play out with Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez, each of whom struggled enough to get bought out of what initially seemed to be very team-friendly contracts.

In either case, it’s hard to envision Robert remaining on the White Sox into the 2026 season. By that point, Colson Montgomery could be the new face of the franchise. The lefty-hitting shortstop was one of the sport’s top 15 prospects at this time last year. Montgomery underperformed in his first crack at Triple-A. He hit .214/.329/.381 while striking out at a 28.6% clip during his age-22 season. That has dinged his prospect value to some extent, though he still ranks among Baseball America’s Top 50 minor league talents.

The White Sox added Montgomery to their 40-man roster in November. That was a formality to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They’d be justified in starting him back in Triple-A, but Getz left the door open for the former first-round pick to take the shortstop job out of camp. “He’s going to get a lot of opportunity come Spring Training,” Getz said (via Merkin). “We expect to see Colson Montgomery playing shortstop for the White Sox this year at some point. … He’s going to get a shot to make the club. Now, we’ve got other players on the roster that are going to compete for shortstop opportunities.”

Brooks Baldwin, who started nine games at shortstop last year, is the only returning player who logged any time at that position. Rojas has been their only major league infield acquisition this winter. He had a bit of run at shortstop early in his career with Arizona but hasn’t played there in four years. Chase Meidroth, whom the White Sox acquired in the Crochet deal, is coming off a .293/.437/.400 showing with Boston’s Triple-A club. His bat seems big league ready, but most scouting reports suggest he’s a better defensive fit at second or third base who can play shortstop on occasion. Meidroth is not yet on the 40-man roster, but it stands to reason that Chicago will give him an MLB look at some point this year.

Diamondbacks Sign Josh Winder To Minor League Contract

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The D-Backs signed righty Josh Winder to a minor league deal with an invitation to MLB Spring Training. The deal was announced by the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Reno.

Winder moves to the second organization of his career. He was a seventh-round pick by the Twins back in 2018. The 6’5″ hurler pitched very well up through Double-A. He was selected to the Futures Game in 2021 and ranked as the #6 prospect in a solid Minnesota farm system on Baseball America’s organizational report the following winter. At the time, some prospect evaluators felt he had a mid-rotation ceiling.

That hasn’t materialized at the major league level. Winder started 11 of 15 games as a rookie in 2022. He posted a 4.70 ERA across 67 innings. Minnesota moved him to the bullpen the next year. Winder tossed 34 2/3 MLB innings across 19 relief appearances. He pitched 18 times in Triple-A. Winder struggled at both stops and fell further down the depth chart going into 2024. He only made four MLB appearances last season, allowing four runs (three earned) over nine innings. He surrendered a 6.15 earned run average across 41 Triple-A frames.

Winder has battled shoulder issues dating back to the second half of the 2021 campaign. He spent time on the minor league injured list with shoulder injuries every year between 2021-23. A stress fracture in his shoulder blade cost him the first two months of last season. That has perhaps contributed to Winder’s underwhelming 5.49 ERA through parts of four Triple-A seasos. He owns a 4.39 mark across 110 2/3 major league innings, though his 18% strikeout rate is well below average.

Arizona could keep the 28-year-old in relief or give him another rotation opportunity if they feel his shoulder will hold up. Winder has shown strong command and mixes five pitches. His four-seam fastball sat around 94 MPH during his rotation work a few seasons back. It ticked up to 95 MPH on average in his limited big league action last season.

Anthony Santander’s Contract With Blue Jays Includes Nearly $62MM In Deferrals

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The Blue Jays finalized their five-year free agent deal with Anthony Santander this week. The deal came with a $92.5MM guarantee but was known to include heavy deferrals. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith first reported on Monday that MLB calculated the contract’s net present closer to $70MM.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported more specifics on the contract structure this afternoon. The NPV landed just under $68.6MM, which comes with an approximate $13.7MM annual competitive balance tax hit. The deal includes $61.75MM in deferred money. The specific layout is as follows:

  • $13.5MM signing bonus ($6.75MM deferred)
  • $13.5MM salary in 2025 ($10MM deferred)
  • $16.5MM salary in 2026 ($10MM deferred)
  • $16.5MM salary in 2027 ($10MM deferred)
  • $14.75MM salary in 2028 ($10MM deferred)
  • $12.75MM salary in 2029 ($10MM deferred)
  • $15MM club option for 2030; guaranteed a $5MM buyout, which would be completely deferred

Santander has an opt-out after the ’27 season. He’s owed $60MM over the first three years, so he’d be weighing whether to leave two years and $32.5MM ($25MM of which would be deferred) on the table. If he opts out, Toronto can override that by guaranteeing his 2030 salary at $17.5MM. That would also escalate Santander’s salaries for the 2028 and ’29 seasons to $17.25MM and $15.25MM, respectively. The maximum value is $110MM over six years — which would only be reached if Santander opts out and the Jays override it.

At the start of the offseason, the slugger was reportedly seeking five years and a nine-figure guarantee. He got the five years but came up well shy of $100MM from an NPV perspective. MLBTR predicted Santander for four years and $80MM at the beginning of the offseason. He beat that on raw money but did not get there in terms of net present value.

The Jays are into luxury tax territory. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on spending between $241MM and $261MM. They’re close to the $261MM cutoff. Adding Santander likely comes with around a $3MM tax hit for the upcoming season. Toronto would be taxed at a 32% clip for spending between $261MM and $281MM.

Tigers Pursuing Relievers With Closing Experience

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The Tigers are interested in adding a late-inning reliever who has experience as a closer, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold identifies top unsigned reliever Carlos Estévez as one of a number of bullpen targets in whom the Tigers have shown interest.

Spending on relief pitching has picked up this month. Estévez’s own market has accelerated. Petzold writes that the Tigers are among six teams still in the mix for the hard-throwing righty. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the Reds remain in contact with Estévez’s camp. He was also linked to the Cubs — who are themselves evaluating a number of late-game options — last week. The Diamondbacks and Braves are among other teams known to be seeking relief help, though neither has been linked to Estévez specifically.

The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan are other free agent relievers with varying degrees of closing experience. (Kirby Yates is also technically unsigned but seems to be headed to the Dodgers.) Jansen and Robertson could command eight-figure guarantees. Finnegan is likely to sign for somewhere below the $8.6MM which he was projected to make in arbitration before he was non-tendered by the Nationals. He should command more than $5MM, though. Kimbrel would be a rebound flier after posting a 5.33 ERA for the Orioles last year.

Petzold writes that the Tigers’ action in the relief market has been held up by Alex Bregman’s extended free agency. Detroit has been one of the top four suitors for the star third baseman. Petzold reported earlier this week that talks were at a “standstill,” though, and the Astros have seemingly made a renewed push to bring him back. That doesn’t mean a move to Detroit is off the table, but it leaves the Tigers in something of a holding pattern.

According to Petzold, the Tigers are unlikely to land Bregman and a top reliever. He suggests they’d be more motivated to spend on a closer if Bregman signs elsewhere, which would lead them to look at a much lower tier of free agent hitter. A few teams have moved to prioritizing the bullpen with the hitting market have slowed down. The Tigers may eventually need to do the same or risk their top relief targets signing while they await Bregman’s decision.

Blue Jays Have Also Shown Interest In Ryan Pressly

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If the Astros trade Ryan Pressly, the Cubs appear the likeliest landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this evening that Chicago was nearing a deal for the veteran reliever. Multiple reports from the Houston beat indicated that Pressly has not agreed to waive his no-trade rights, however. It’s also not clear if the Cubs and Astros had agreed to a final trade package and were awaiting Pressly’s decision, or if the teams merely felt they were making progress in those conversations.

Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that while the Cubs are serious suitors for the two-time All-Star, no deal is believed to be imminent. According to The Athletic, the Blue Jays and at least one mystery team from the West Coast have also expressed interest. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com similarly wrote this evening that the Astros have fielded interest from multiple clubs on Pressly.

In any case, the 36-year-old righty controls his destination. Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with at least 10 years of MLB service and five-plus service years with his current team. He grew up in the Dallas area and has pitched in Houston since the 2018 trade deadline. His wife Katharine is a Houston native. It’s not out of the question that he and his family simply prefer to stay there.

Whether Pressly would waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs, Blue Jays or anyone else remains to be seen. There is no definitive reporting that he is unwilling to move. All that is clear is that he has not approved a trade to this point.

This could be a key decision for Houston’s overall offseason. The Astros have an offer out to Alex Bregman. In recent days, they’ve resumed talks with their longtime third baseman. Bregman is still pursuing a long-term contract; Houston’s initial offer was reportedly for $156MM over six years. The Astros project around $3MM north of the base luxury tax threshold. Offloading a few million dollars could allow them to duck below the CBT line for the moment. Signing Bregman would undoubtedly push them back into tax territory, though that’s perhaps an easier sell for ownership than it would be to pay the CBT even if he walks.

Pressly combined for 110 appearances between 2023-24, which triggered a $14MM vesting option on his deal. That’s probably a little above market value but not dramatically so. José Leclerc and Andrew Kittredge each signed $10MM free agent contracts this winter. Blake Treinen, who is six months older than Pressly, landed two years at $11MM annually.

After serving as Houston’s closer between 2020-23, Pressly moved into a setup role last year. That was in response to their late strike to add Josh Hader on a five-year free agent deal. He had a solid season, working to a 3.49 earned run average through 56 2/3 frames. Pressly’s strikeout rate dropped to a league average 23.8% clip — his lowest mark since his 2018 breakout —  but he posted a solid 7.4% walk rate while picking up 25 holds.

The Cubs and Jays could each offer Pressly their closer role. Chicago has a few less experienced pitchers (e.g. Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller) who could compete for saves. Toronto has already added Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García and Nick Sandlin this offseason. That trio joins Chad Green and Erik Swanson in the high-leverage mix. Hoffman is probably the favorite for the ninth inning, but he has been a setup man for most of his career. He recorded 10 of his 12 career saves for the Phillies last season. Pressly saved at least 26 games in each of his three full seasons as Houston’s closer.

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