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MLB Passes Two Small Rule Changes

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Major League Baseball’s competition committee has unanimously passed two minor on-field rule changes for the 2025 season, reports Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The first involves defensive positioning, while the other relates to an infrequent baserunning scenario.

Regarding the defense, the rule change now allows a hitting team to accept an awarded base if a defensive player violates the shift ban and is the first player to field a batted ball. Teams are required to keep two infielders on either side of the second base bag. Previously, if a fielder violated the shift ban — likely a middle infielder starting on the opposite side of the base — the hitting team could either take an automatic ball or accept the result of the play. They’ll now be able to take the free base or the play result. If they accept the free base, any runners would move up one base. The fielder will be charged with an error, while the hitter will not be credited with an at-bat.

The change is designed to increase the penalty for teams violating the shift ban. The league felt that teams could push fielders slightly beyond the bag in hopes of getting away with a violation. The rationale would be that if the violation went unnoticed by umpires and opposing teams, the shift could result in an out. If the violation were detected, the automatic ball was unlikely to be that costly. Drellich notes that there were two shift violations that resulted in an automatic ball last season. Those would be errors under the new rule.

The baserunning rule only comes into play in very specific circumstances. If a player deliberately overruns the second or third base bag to beat out a force play, a longstanding rule is that the runner is to be called out for abandonment. Players are only really incentivized to do this if they’re the trail runner when there was a runner on third base with two outs. If they feel they’d be forced out if they slow down or slide, they may instead run through the bag. While they’d likely be tagged out a second or two later, negating the force play would allow the runner who’d been on third base to score.

Now, the replay official can determine whether the runner from third base touched home plate before the trail runner officially abandoned the bag. That’s defined as having both feet on the ground beyond the base. If the lead runner had not scored by then, the run will not count. The rule also includes an adjustment to replay review. Previously, if the umpire had incorrectly called the trail runner out on the initial force play, a successful challenge by the hitting team would call the runner safe even if the runner had gone through the bag. In that scenario, the replay official can now call the runner out by abandonment.

MLB’s competition committee is composed of six owners, four player representatives, and one umpire. The owner majority essentially gives the league unilateral power to make on-field rule adjustments. That has been to the players’ consternation in the past, though these changes are so marginal that they didn’t encounter opposition.

Astros Have Kept Offer Out To Bregman

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This afternoon provided a surprise when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros were leaving the door open to bringing back Alex Bregman. It was generally expected that the Astros had moved on once they acquired Isaac Paredes and signed Christian Walker to play the corner infield spots.

However, it seems the Astros never fully closed the door on their longtime third baseman. Houston had reportedly made Bregman a six-year, $156MM offer before they landed Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker return. Bregman obviously did not accept, though it does not seem that the team has pulled the offer even after what seemed to a pivot to contingency plans.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Houston’s offer “remains on the table.” Rome writes that pressure within the Astros’ clubhouse has contributed to the team reopening discussions with the two-time All-Star in recent days. It isn’t known if that means they’re open to pushing their offer beyond $156MM, or if they’re simply hoping that Bregman’s asking price will come down to their level now that he’s unsigned deep into January.

Nightengale suggested this afternoon that if the Astros managed to keep Bregman, they could slide Paredes to second base while bumping Jose Altuve to left field. Rome confirms that the team is indeed considering that scenario. While Altuve to the outfield doesn’t seem to be set in stone, Rome writes that Bregman would stick at third base if he signed back in Houston. They’d need to find somewhere else in the lineup for Paredes.

Money remains a stumbling block. The Astros exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Rome reports that owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to do so for a second straight year. Houston already projects narrowly above the $241MM base threshold, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number around $244MM. The Astros could make a trade to dip below that mark. They’ve been working to offload most or all of the $14MM owed to setup man Ryan Pressly, though the veteran righty has full no-trade rights and could scuttle those plans. Mauricio Dubón ($5MM) and Chas McCormick ($3.4MM) are on manageable arbitration salaries and could be possible trade options if Houston can’t deal Pressly.

There’s essentially no way they’d get below the tax line if they re-sign Bregman. He’d very likely command more than $25MM annually. Even if they trade Pressly and decide to deal Paredes, who’ll play on a $6.625MM arbitration salary, they’d be above the line. That the Astros apparently still have an offer out to Bregman demonstrates that Crane isn’t firmly committed to staying below the tax threshold. The owner has said as much this offseason, though he has also been reluctant to approve long-term deals. Houston hasn’t signed a free agent contract longer than the five-year, $95MM Josh Hader deal from last winter since Crane purchased the franchise more than a decade ago.

The Tigers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have also been linked to Bregman. Talks between the infielder and Detroit were reportedly at a standstill as of Tuesday evening.

The Angels Should Be Positioned For A Late-Offseason Acquisition

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The Angels were aggressive within the opening weeks of the offseason. They acquired Jorge Soler as soon as the trade market reopened. They made the first MLB free agent acquisition of the winter when they added Kyle Hendricks. They signed Travis d'Arnaud and Yusei Kikuchi to multi-year contracts before any other team signed anyone from outside the organization for multiple years.

They've been virtually silent since then. They haven't signed a major league contract since finalizing the Kikuchi deal on November 27. Their only trade pickups since they landed Soler are utilityman Scott Kingery and depth catcher Chuckie Robinson. After identifying a few priority targets, they've taken their foot off the gas.

That isn't because the roster is complete. Soler, d'Arnaud, and Kikuchi are upgrades, but the Halos had a lot more to fix if they're serious about battling for a Wild Card spot. With a handful of high-profile free agents potentially stretching into February unsigned, the Halos should be positioned to bookend their winter with another strike or two.

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Tyler Matzek To Throw For Interested Teams

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Free agent reliever Tyler Matzek will hold a showcase for scouts on Thursday in Irvine, reports Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. The southpaw is looking to demonstrate his health after being limited to 11 major league appearances last season.

None of those came after May 4. Matzek began the year in the Braves’ bullpen. Opponents tagged him for 11 runs over 10 innings. Atlanta placed him on the injured list with elbow inflammation during the first week of May. Matzek remained on the shelf for more than three months. Atlanta dealt him to the Giants as a salary offset in the Jorge Soler deadline acquisition.

San Francisco released Matzek rather than plug him into the MLB bullpen when he was healthy. Atlanta circled back to re-sign the 34-year-old lefty to a minor league deal. Matzek pitched four times with Triple-A Gwinnett and didn’t earn a call up. He qualified for minor league free agency at season’s end.

Elbow issues have derailed Matzek in consecutive seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery during Atlanta’s postseason run in 2022. That cost him the entire ’23 campaign. Between his age and the injuries, he’ll likely be limited to minor league offers. If Matzek’s stuff looks sharp in his showcase, he should find interest from teams as a depth option. He had a strong three-year run with Atlanta between 2020-22. Matzek combined for a 2.92 earned run average while striking out more than 27% of batters faced in 135 2/3 innings over that stretch.

Twins, Padres Have Discussed Christian Vazquez Trade

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The Padres and Twins have had discussions about a potential trade that would send veteran catcher Christian Vázquez to San Diego, report Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. There’s no indication that a deal is imminent. Indeed, Hayes suggests that conversations have “slowed” recently, though that doesn’t mean that the sides won’t continue talks in the coming days.

Vázquez is both a logical trade candidate for Minnesota and an obvious fit for San Diego. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said last week that the team’s trade talks had started to pick up steam. While Falvey didn’t identify specific players under discussion, Vázquez is arguably the most obvious candidate. He’s entering the final season of a three-year free agent deal. He has split time with Ryan Jeffers over his two years in the Twin Cities.

Over the past two seasons, Jeffers carries a .246/.328/.456 batting line in exactly 800 trips to the plate. Vázquez has hit .222/.265/.322 through 670 plate appearances. Manager Rocco Baldelli nevertheless stuck to the even divide in playing time last year. Each player made 81 starts. Jeffers caught 720 1/3 innings, while Vázquez logged 719 frames.

Jeffers clearly brings a much higher offensive ceiling. Vázquez is the superior defender. While Jeffers receives subpar grades for his receiving skills, Vázquez has long been a quality pitch framer. He was also a superior blocker. Last year, Vázquez was charged with just one passed ball and was behind the plate for 19 wild pitches. Jeffers committed three passed balls and allowed 28 wild pitches.

Despite Vázquez’s defensive advantage, the Twins may prefer to give Jeffers an extra 15-20 starts to keep his bat in the lineup. That’s particularly true when considering the financials. Vázquez’s deal pays him $10MM annually. That’s a lot for a part-time catcher. Minnesota’s front office has been hamstrung by the budget for a second straight offseason. The Pohlad family ownership group has been loath to raise payroll as they explore a sale of the franchise. Minnesota has not made a single major league free agent signing this winter. Their biggest moves have been depth trades for Mickey Gasper and former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya.

The Padres are in a remarkably similar spot. While ownership isn’t selling the franchise, there’s litigation amongst the Seidler family for control. San Diego has slashed payroll for two straight years themselves. They also have not signed any major league free agents or made any trades of consequence.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has his work cut out for him in addressing multiple areas of need with a limited budget. Catcher is probably the biggest issue on the position player side. San Diego hoped that Luis Campusano would run with the job in 2024. Instead, he hit .227/.287/.361 while grading as one of the league’s worst defensive catchers.

Campusano ceded the starting job to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch. Higashioka landed with the Rangers on a two-year free agent deal, leaving Campusano as the default projected starter. Brett Sullivan is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. San Diego recently added Martín Maldonado on a minor league contract. He hit .119 in 48 games for the White Sox last season. Chicago released him in July.

The 34-year-old Vázquez would provide a significant defensive upgrade over Campusano. While he hasn’t produced at the plate in Minnesota, he was a league average hitter (.274/.315/.399) between the Red Sox and Astros back in 2022. There’s more hope for getting something offensively from Vázquez than there would be if they select Maldonado’s contract.

San Diego would not take on Vázquez’s entire salary. He’s comparable to Jacob Stallings ($2.5MM) and Austin Hedges ($4MM), each of whom signed cheap one-year deals as free agents this offseason. The Padres could push for Minnesota to eat at least half the money to facilitate a trade. Hayes and Lin write that the Twins are reluctant to pay down too much of the deal. Their primary motivation of trading Vázquez would be salary relief. They’d also perhaps need to earmark a couple million dollars for a veteran to back up Jeffers (e.g. Elias Díaz, Yasmani Grandal). The other catchers on their 40-man roster — Cartaya and Jair Camargo — have five combined games of MLB experience.

Minnesota is looking for a first baseman who can replace Carlos Santana. They’re seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder as well. Beyond Vázquez, Chris Paddack ($7.5MM) stands as their clearest trade candidate to create a bit of payroll room. To be clear, there’s no suggestion that the Padres have interest in reacquiring Paddack. Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo and Ty France are among the unsigned first basemen. Mark Canha, Austin Hays and Randal Grichuk are a few righty-swinging outfielders still on the open market.

In addition to their catching pursuit, San Diego needs back-end rotation help and a replacement for Jurickson Profar in left field. They’re unlikely to achieve all of that without shedding salary in a trade of their own. Dylan Cease is their biggest trade chip. He’ll make $13.75MM in his final year of arbitration. Dealing him would be a huge hit to an already thin rotation, but they’d net MLB help in return while creating a decent chunk of short-term payroll space.

The Athletic reports that the Twins are among a number of teams that have shown interest in Cease. Vázquez obviously would not be a key piece in a trade of that magnitude, though he could be included as an ancillary part of a much larger package. As a comparison, Higashioka was probably viewed as the fifth-most valuable player in San Diego’s return from the Yankees for Juan Soto at the time of that trade.

Reds Remain In Talks With Carlos Estevez

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The Reds remain in conversation with Carlos Estévez, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman first reported earlier this month that Cincinnati had interest in the veteran reliever.

More broadly, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Estévez’s market has picked up this week. While there’s nothing to suggest a deal is imminent, a few teams that have been frustrated with the asking prices on free agent hitters have turned their attention to the bullpen. The relief group lagged the hitting and starting pitching markets for most of the offseason, but that has changed the past two weeks. Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, José Leclerc, Tanner Scott and Paul Sewald have all agreed to terms this month. Kirby Yates is reportedly closing in on a deal with the Dodgers, as well.

Estévez is probably the top unsigned reliever. The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Cincinnati had a decent relief group in 2024. They ranked 18th in earned run average despite the difficulty of pitching at Great American Ball Park. Reds relievers ranked ninth with a 24.3% strikeout rate. They subtracted one of their top strikeout arms when they dealt Fernando Cruz to the Yankees for backup catcher Jose Trevino. A full season from breakout candidate Tony Santillan could be a major boost in front of closer Alexis Díaz. Veterans Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter are back, as is lefty Sam Moll.

The biggest question is whether the Reds have the payroll space to meet Estévez’s asking price. That seemed unlikely a few weeks ago, as general manager Nick Krall said the team wasn’t working with a ton of financial margin. However, the Reds have subsequently finalized a new television contract to stay on the FanDuel Sports Networks for the 2025 season. Krall said that the TV deal allows the front office to “work a little bit more (than before) in both the free agency and the trade market.” RosterResource calculates the Reds’ player payroll around $106MM, approximately $6MM above where they ended last season.

Cubs Sign Jon Berti

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The Cubs are in agreement with infielder Jon Berti, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a one-year, $2MM guarantee that includes another $1.3MM in performance bonuses, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Berti is a client of Ball Players Agency.

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said last week that the front office was looking to upgrade the bench. A multi-positional infielder seemed the likeliest target. Chicago has already added Carson Kelly as a backup catcher and has a strong outfield. Their infield was much less settled after they included Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade.

Berti, who turns 35 today, is a sensible depth pickup. He’s a good athlete who has ample experience at each of second base, third base and shortstop. He has decent defensive grades at all three spots. Berti topped 100 games for the Marlins in both the 2022 and ’23 seasons. He combined for a .268/.334/.373 batting line with solid strikeout and walk rates. While he has minimal power, he’s an excellent runner. Berti stole 41 bases in 46 attempts back in 2022 and continues to grade highly for his overall baserunning acumen.

The Yankees acquired the righty-hitting infielder from Miami just before last season got underway. Berti would have had an opportunity to push DJ LeMahieu for the third base job had he stayed healthy. That wasn’t to be, as he landed on the injured list with respective groin and calf problems early in the year. The latter — a significant strain of his left calf — shelved him between May and September. Berti was limited to 25 regular season appearances and played four times during New York’s run to the AL pennant. He hit .273 with one extra-base knock (a homer) in 74 plate appearances.

Berti finished the season just shy of six years of big league service. New York could’ve kept him for his final year of arbitration eligibility. They opted not to tender him a contract, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected around $3.8MM. He falls shy of that number as a free agent but secures a guaranteed deal and an MLB roster spot. As a player with over five years of service time, he can’t be sent to the minors without his consent. He’ll be on Chicago’s big league team.

It will likely be in a bench role. Dansby Swanson is locked in at shortstop. Nico Hoerner will play second base once he’s healthy. Hoerner is rehabbing from flexor surgery and might start the season on the injured list. That’d leave Berti as the favorite to handle the keystone. Prospect Matt Shaw is expected to get everyday run at third base. He’s coming off a monster year in the upper minors (.284/.379/.488 with 21 homers between Double-A and Triple-A). Shaw has significant offensive upside, but plenty of top prospects have struggled in their first look at major league pitching.

Berti offers insurance for Hoerner’s injury and adds a high-floor fallback at third base if Shaw doesn’t hit the ground running. The acquisition is likely to push at least one of Vidal Bruján or Gage Workman off the roster. Workman is a Rule 5 pick, while Bruján is a former top prospect whom the Cubs acquired from Miami last month. Bruján is out of options and cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. It’s highly unlikely that the Cubs carry each of Berti, Bruján and Workman on the Opening Day roster, especially if Hoerner is healthy.

Berti’s modest base salary pushes the Cubs’ luxury tax number to roughly $200MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re still more than $40MM below the tax line and should have ample space for another acquisition. Hoyer has called the bullpen a priority and they’ve been tied to a number of high-leverage relievers on the trade and free agent fronts.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Michael Kopech Has Begun Offseason Throwing Program

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January 22: Los Angeles general manager Brandon Gomes downplayed the situation this evening. Gomes said that Kopech is amidst his offseason throwing program and said he “(doesn’t) think there’s anything of concern at this point” with their potential closer (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

January 21: The Dodgers are seemingly on the verge of adding two high-leverage bullpen pieces. After agreeing to terms on a four-year deal with Tanner Scott over the weekend, Los Angeles reportedly has a tentative agreement in place to sign All-Star righty Kirby Yates.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who was first to report that the Dodgers and Yates were closing in on a deal, linked the expected addition to the health status of Michael Kopech. There hadn’t been any prior indication that Kopech was facing a potential injury absence. Nightengale reports that the hard-throwing righty has been battling forearm inflammation. He has not been diagnosed with any structural damage, though Nightengale indicates that the Dodgers will take a cautious approach early in the season.

Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Kopech pitched through what was seemingly a minor forearm issue during last fall’s World Series run. Acquired from the White Sox in a three-team deadline deal, Kopech had a brilliant first few months in Los Angeles. He fired 24 innings down the stretch and posted a 1.13 earned run average. He struck out 33% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on a fantastic 15.8% of his offerings.

Kopech’s playoff performance was a little more shaky. While he only allowed three runs in nine postseason innings, he issued seven free passes while striking out 10 batters. Kopech didn’t lose any life on his 98-99 MPH fastball, though, so that dip was probably more about small sample variance than a reflection that he was significantly hampered physically. His command has never been pristine.

For now, the forearm inflammation seems to be something worth monitoring rather than a huge concern. Nightengale suggests that Kopech could begin the season on the injured list, but no one from the team has publicly stated that’ll be the case. Even if he does miss a few weeks early in the year, the Dodgers have plenty of talent to weather his absence.

The Dodgers could have four or five potential closers. Scott closed for the Marlins for a few seasons before moving into a setup capacity with the Padres after a deadline trade. Evan Phillips had been L.A.’s primary closer for over a year before the Kopech acquisition. Phillips battled shoulder issues late in the season and wasn’t able to go in the World Series. The Dodgers brought back high-leverage arm Blake Treinen on a two-year contract early in the offseason. If they finalize the Yates deal, he could be the favorite for the ninth after saving 33 games for the Rangers. Skipper Dave Roberts will have plenty of high-octane arms he can juggle even if Kopech begins the year on the shelf.

Dodgers Sign Roki Sasaki

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Jan. 22: The Dodgers have formally announced Sasaki’s signing. Baseball America, unsurprisingly, ranked Sasaki as the new No. 1 prospect in baseball this morning.

Jan. 17: The Dodgers have landed another star out of Japan. Roki Sasaki announced on Friday evening that he’s signing with Los Angeles. The Wasserman client will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which can be finalized at any point until the evening of January 23.

As an international amateur, Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract with a hard-capped signing bonus. He won’t immediately occupy a 40-man roster spot, though the team will certainly select him onto the MLB roster by Opening Day. In the end, it’s a fairly unsurprising result, though other outcomes seemed somewhat possible at times. The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and though the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.

Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.

That performance would have made him one of the top free agents of this or any offseason, which normally would have lined him up for a massive payday. However, Sasaki seemed determined to start his major league career as soon as possible, without much regard for money.

If he had waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional under MLB rules, and thus able to sign for any amount the market would bear. That was the route taken by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who secured a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers last offseason.

But Sasaki is making the move now, having just turned 23 years old, meaning he is considered an amateur and thus subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under that system, each team gets a set amount to spend on international amateurs annually. This year, each team gets between $5-8MM, a paltry amount compared to what Yamamoto secured. That at least made it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since the big-spending clubs couldn’t outmuscle the smaller clubs like with many other free agents.

However, despite that theoretical even playing field, there were still many good reasons to expect the Dodgers to emerge victorious. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn’t reveal much about the player’s preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which is often appealing for players coming over from Asia simply due to the relative proximity. They have a strong track record of on-field success, having made the playoffs in each year going back to 2013 now and having just won the World Series a few months ago. They also roster a couple of other Japanese stars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

It wasn’t known how much Sasaki would weigh those factors compared to others. Wolfe pushed back on the notion that Sasaki cared about the presence of other Japanese players. He also suggested last month that Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, on account of some friction with the media during his time in Japan.

There were some arguments to possibly consider scenarios where he would prefer to go elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers and it was reported that Sasaki has a strong relationship with current Padre Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, potentially giving them the ability to lower Sasaki’s access to the media. The fact that they are the only MLB team in Canada also theoretically opened up more endorsement opportunities from Japanese companies, as opposed to sharing the L.A. market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also had a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.

But despite any short-term drama that played out this offseason, the most obvious thing has happened. Sasaki has joined a team that is already loaded with stars like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games and now they are adding another hugely talented player into the mix.

Adding Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster but it’s also massive from a financial point of view. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to make the league minimum this year and until he qualifies for arbitration or signs an extension. That’s a massive thing for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe big sums of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and plenty of others.

It also gives them an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, at least in terms of pure talent. Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. It’s a near inevitability that Clayton Kershaw will eventually re-sign. Even with each of Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan set to miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers’ rotation should run eight or nine names deep. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and formerly touted rookie Bobby Miller are all on hand as depth starters.

It’s a staggering amount of talent for one team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year in spite of their playoff rotation. This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.

Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 frames across 18 appearances a year ago. Sasaki had a pair of injuries in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.

The Dodgers will happily take the tradeoff of some IL stints for rate dominance. Los Angeles doesn’t place much value on bulk innings. They’re content to embrace injury risk as they chase pitchers with top-of-the-rotation upside. That’s enabled in part by their resources, of course, though money isn’t a factor for Sasaki.

Every team would have been thrilled to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers will also owe a $1.3MM posting fee to the pitcher’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. The posting fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. As Sasaki’s bonus was capped at a few million dollars, the Marines were limited to 20% of whatever he received.

It comes out to a $7.8MM investment to land Japan’s most talented pitcher. The Dodgers have signed arguably NPB’s best pitcher in consecutive offseasons. They’ll have Sasaki for the standard six-year window of team control associated with the promotion of any prospect. He’ll be slated for salaries around the league minimum for the next three seasons. He’d then go through three years of the arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding regarding a contract extension to circumvent the bonus pool limits. While there’s no official cutoff for when the Dodgers could look to extend Sasaki, they cannot have any sort of unofficial long-term deal in the works right now.

The Dodgers opened this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. They had $5.1462MM to spend on international amateurs on January 15. The Dodgers allowed a few of their verbal agreements with teenage prospects to lapse to keep open funds for Sasaki. They added to their pool by dealing minor league outfielder Dylan Campbell to the Phillies and sending outfield prospect Arnaldo Lantigua to Cincinnati tonight. Their precise bonus allotment isn’t known, but Sasaki will take the vast majority of the pool. That’s a trade every team would happily make for a potential plug-and-play ace.

It’s a brutal blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were out of the mix. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face an even tougher challenge in the NL West. The Blue Jays finish as the runner-up on yet another marquee free agent talent. Toronto has lost out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Sasaki (among others) within the past two offseasons alone.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Ichiro, CC Sabathia, Billy Wagner Elected To Hall Of Fame

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The Hall of Fame announced the results of this year’s Baseball Writers Association of America voting. Ichiro, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner topped the 75% threshold for induction. They’ll join Dick Allen and Dave Parker in the 2025 class. Allen and Parker were elected by the Classic Baseball Era committee at the Winter Meetings. Ichiro appeared on 99.7% of the ballots, falling one vote shy of unanimity.

Two of the three inductees, Ichiro and Sabathia, get into Cooperstown on their first year. Wagner gets in on his 10th and final opportunity. He’d fallen just a percentage point shy last winter and jumped beyond an 82% vote share with the writers having their last chance to elect him.

Ichiro starred in his home country before making the move to the big leagues during the 2000-01 offseason. He signed a three-year deal with the Mariners and immediately became one of the best players in franchise history. Ichiro led the majors with 242 hits and 56 stolen bases. He hit .350 to win the AL batting title at the top of a loaded Seattle lineup. The ’01 Mariners won 116 games and remain the greatest regular season team in MLB history. They lost a five-game Championship Series to the Yankees.

That was one of the best debut seasons ever. Ichiro was an All-Star and won a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove award in right field. He not only coasted to the Rookie of the Year award but narrowly surpassed Jason Giambi to win the MVP. He joined Fred Lynn as the only rookies to be named the Most Valuable Player.

While that’d be the only time that Ichiro finished top five in MVP balloting, he was the game’s best pure hitter for a decade. He topped 200 hits with an average north of .300 in each of his first 10 seasons. He had arguably his best year in 2004, when he led the majors with a .372 average and tallied a career-high 262 hits. Ichiro was a menace on the bases throughout his prime, topping 30 stolen bases on 10 occasions. He was also the sport’s best defensive right fielder, pairing plus range with an elite arm and twice leading the AL in outfield assists.

An incredibly durable player, Ichiro topped 150 games played in 13 seasons. He led the majors in hits seven times and was selected to the All-Star Game in each of his first 10 years. Ichiro remained an excellent player through his age-36 season. He played all the way until age 45, seeing action with the Yankees and Marlins. Ichiro collected his 3000th career hit while he was playing for Miami, doing it in style with a triple against Colorado’s Chris Rusin at Coors Field. Ichiro returned to Seattle for the end of his career, capping it off in a two-game series between the Mariners and A’s in front of Japanese fans at the Tokyo Dome to kick off the 2019 season.

Ichiro finished his major league career as a .311 hitter who tallied 3089 hits. That’d be a remarkable achievement for any player but is especially impressive for one who spent a few of his prime-aged seasons in NPB and didn’t make his major league debut until he was 27. Ichiro was never a huge power threat in games, though many believe that he could’ve been an impact power bat had he prioritized that over elite pure hitting ability. In any case, he concluded with 117 career homers and stole more than 500 bases. He won 10 Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger awards.

Sabathia was a first-round pick by the Indians in 1998. He was in the majors within three years of being selected out of high school. He won 17 games during his rookie season and finished as the runner-up behind Ichiro in ’01 Rookie of the Year voting. The southpaw was a durable mid-rotation arm for Cleveland for the first few seasons of his career. He earned consecutive All-Star nods in 2003 and ’04.

While he was on track for a very good major league career, Sabathia didn’t look like a future Hall of Famer. That changed in the second half of the 2000s. Sabathia turned in a 3.22 ERA over 28 starts in 2006. He cemented himself as the game’s top workhorse the following year. Sabathia led the majors with 241 innings across 34 starts in ’07. He topped 200 strikeouts for the first time and turned in a 3.21 ERA while winning 19 games. He earned his third All-Star selection and won the Cy Young. He helped the Indians to the postseason for the first time in six years, though he struggled in two starts in the ALCS as they were knocked off by the Red Sox.

Cleveland wasn’t on a playoff track in 2008. Sabathia was an impending free agent whom the Indians had no expectation of re-signing. They traded him to the Brewers a few weeks before the deadline for a prospect package led by Matt LaPorta. While LaPorta didn’t work out, the unheralded acquisition of Michael Brantley as a “lesser” piece of that deal had a huge impact on Cleveland baseball.

Sabathia’s stint in Milwaukee was brief but could hardly have gone better. The southpaw had a legendary second half, winning 11 games with a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts. Sabathia remarkably completed seven of those starts and recorded three shutouts. He more or less carried Milwaukee to a 90-win season and a Wild Card berth, though they were bounced by the eventual champion Phillies in the Division Series. Sabathia finished that year with a career-high 253 innings and 251 strikeouts with a 2.70 earned run average. He finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting even though he spent half the season in the American League.

The following offseason, Sabathia signed with the Yankees on a seven-year, $161MM megadeal. He tossed 230 innings of 3.37 ERA ball and won an MLB-best 19 games in his first season. He followed up with a 1.98 ERA across five postseason starts, winning the ALCS MVP award while helping the Yanks to their 27th World Series title. Sabathia would respectively win 21 and 19 games over the next two years, topping 230 innings with a low-3.00s ERA in both. He finished in the top four in Cy Young voting in each of his first three seasons in pinstripes.

He earned his final All-Star nod in 2012 and reached 200 innings for the last time in ’13. Sabathia remained in the Bronx on a series of short-term deals after the expiration of his first free agent contract. He was a capable back-end starter until his retirement in 2019. Sabathia finished his career with nearly 3600 innings over parts of 19 seasons. He posted a 3.74 ERA, won 251 games, and recorded more than 3000 strikeouts. His 3093 punchouts rank 18th on the all-time leaderboard.

Wagner is the ninth primary reliever to earn the call from Cooperstown. A first-round pick of the Astros in 1993, he would spend the majority of his career in Houston. Wagner debuted in ’95 and earned his first handful of saves the following year. He was Houston’s full-time closer by ’97, when he saved 23 games with a 2.85 ERA over 66 1/3 innings.

The hard-throwing lefty reached 30 saves for the first time in his career the ensuing season. He followed up with a sterling 1.57 ERA while striking out 124 hitters across 74 2/3 frames in 1999. Wagner picked up 39 saves, earned his first All-Star nod, and landed fourth in Cy Young voting. He was named MLB’s best reliever that season.

He struggled in 2000 but rebounded with a dominant three-season stretch to close his Astros tenure. Wagner topped 60 innings with at least 35 saves while allowing an ERA of 2.73 or better in each season between 2001-03. He was selected to two more All-Star Games over that stretch. Wagner had arguably his best year in ’03. He led the majors with 67 games finished while turning in a 1.78 earned run average. Wagner struck out 105 batters — one of four career seasons in which he topped the century mark — while throwing a career-best 86 innings.

The Astros traded Wagner to Philadelphia over the 2003-04 offseason. While his first season with the Phillies was shortened by injury, he posted a 1.51 ERA with 38 saves across 77 2/3 innings in ’05. He inked a four-year free agent deal with the Mets the following offseason. Wagner earned two more All-Star selections while posting a cumulative 2.37 ERA over three and a half seasons in Queens. He had a strong month in Boston after an August ’09 trade.

Wagner returned to free agency and signed a one-year contract with the Braves. He finished his career in style, posting a 1.43 ERA with 37 saves across 69 1/3 innings at age 38. Wagner punched out 104 hitters en route to his seventh and final All-Star nod. He finished his career with a 2.31 ERA over 903 innings. Wagner recorded nearly 1200 strikeouts and ranks eighth all-time with 422 saves. He struck out a massive 33.2% of opposing hitters over a career spanning parts of 16 seasons.

Opponents of his Hall of Fame case have pointed to his lack of a postseason track record. Wagner indeed struggled in October, allowing 13 runs in 11 2/3 playoff innings over seven seasons. That’s an extremely small sample, though, and his regular season performance was remarkably consistent despite the volatility of most relief pitchers. Wagner had a sub-3.00 ERA in all but one season and reached 30 saves on nine occasions.

Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones find themselves within shouting distance of induction. Beltrán appeared on 70.3% of ballots in his third year of eligibility. That’s a marked jump from last year’s approximate 57% vote share, giving him a solid chance at election next offseason. Jones appeared on 66.2% of ballots, up around five points from last winter. He has two more seasons of eligibility.

No one else received a vote share of 40% or higher. Aside from Ichiro and Sabathia, the only first-time candidates who reached the 5% cutoff necessary to stay on the ballot were Félix Hernández (20.6%) and Dustin Pedroia (11.9%). Wagner was the only person in his final year of eligibility. No returning candidates dropped below a 5% vote share, so the only players who fell off the ballot were the first-time candidates who received minimal support.

The big question of next year’s class is whether Beltrán and (less likely) Jones will be elected. Manny Ramírez will be entering his final year of eligibility and is likely to drop off the ballot after receiving around 34% of the vote this year. Cole Hamels leads the crop of first-ballot players in what’ll likely be a smaller class than this year’s group of inductees.

Full voting breakdown available via the BBWAA. Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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