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Notable Draft Signings: 7/22/24

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We’ve already covered a few significant draft bonuses this evening. A few more $2MM+ signings from Monday:

  • The Phillies are signing second-rounder Griffin Burkholder for $2.5MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). Philadelphia had to go well beyond the approximate $1.35MM slot value associated with the 63rd overall pick to sign him away from a commitment to West Virginia. Burkholder is a righty-hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school. Pre-draft scouting reports at Baseball America (where he ranked #50 in the class) and from Keith Law of the Athletic (who ranked him 71st) credit Burkholder with excellent speed and the potential for plus raw power at his peak. The question is whether he’ll develop an adequate hit tool in pro ball. He’s a developmental flier for the Phils.
  • Royals second-round pick David Shields landed a $2.3MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s in line with the 41st overall pick’s $2.28MM slot value. Shields is a 6’2″ left-handed pitcher from a Pennsylvania high school who had been committed to Miami. One of the younger pitchers in the class, Shields is a projection arm with good athleticism and low-90s velocity at present. Law ranked him 43rd on his pre-draft list, crediting the southpaw with good curveball feel and a loose arm action.
  • The Rockies agreed to a $2MM bonus with 42nd overall pick Jared Thomas, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (X link). That’s slightly under slot, which was around $2.22MM. Thomas is a lefty-hitting outfielder from the University of Texas. He hit .349/.435/.635 with 16 homers and 18 steals as a draft-eligible sophomore. Thomas split most of his defensive work in Austin between first base and center field, though he’ll likely get a shot at the latter position in pro ball. FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had him as a top 50 player in the class. Thomas draws praise for his solid power and athleticism, although BA’s scouting report raises questions about his propensity to chase pitches off the plate. Thomas struck out in 20.6% of his plate appearances during his draft year. While that’s a little better than the MLB average, it’s likely to rise in pro ball.

White Sox Agree To Terms With No. 5 Pick Hagen Smith

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The White Sox have deals with their top two draft picks. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports (X links) that Chicago agreed to an $8MM bonus with fifth overall pick Hagen Smith and a $3MM sum with second-rounder Caleb Bonemer.

Smith, a left-hander from the University of Arkansas, was the second pitcher off the board. He and Wake Forest righty Chase Burns were 1-2 among pitchers in some order on virtually every pre-draft rankings. Cincinnati selected Burns with the second pick and signed him to a record $9.25MM bonus. Smith, the final top five draftee to agree to terms, lands the fourth-largest bonus of the class.

The 6’3″ southpaw worked from the rotation in all three seasons in Fayetteville. He had his best season as a junior, turning in a 2.06 earned run average across 84 innings in the SEC. Smith trailed only Burns among Division I pitchers with 161 strikeouts, an incredible 48.6% rate. Even with an elevated 10.3% walk rate, he was far too dominant for most college hitters.

Prospect evaluators credit Smith with a mid-upper 90s fastball and a plus or better slider. Baseball America notes that Smith’s 3/4 arm slot allows his fastball to generate a tough angle at the top of the strike zone. BA raises some questions about the infrequency with which Smith used his changeup in college, while The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that his setup on the first base side of the rubber made it difficult for him to attack right-handed batters on the inner half. Those quibbles (plus a Tommy John surgery which Smith underwent in high school) lead to some risk, but there’s also massive upside given the quality of his top two pitches.

Bonemer is a righty-hitting infielder from a Michigan high school. He’d been slated to attend the University of Virginia but will head to pro ball on an overslot deal. The 43rd overall selection comes with a $2.17MM slot value. Bonemer’s bonus pays him like a late first-round talent. Evaluators praise his power upside and give him a good chance to play somewhere in the infield. Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each raise some concern about his pure hitting ability, with Law’s pre-draft report pointing to Bonemer’s tendency to get pull-oriented in his swing.

A’s Sign First-Round Pick Nick Kurtz

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The Athletics announced they’ve signed fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz. MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (on X) that the former Wake Forest first baseman receives a $7MM bonus. That’s well shy of the approximate $8.37MM slot value, freeing up a decent chunk of money for Oakland to spend on their later picks.

Kurtz has been regarded as one of the best offensive players in the class for the last two years. The left-handed hitter reached base at an absurd .510 clip over his college career. He’s coming off a .306/.531/.763 slash line in his draft year. Kurtz walked at a massive 30% clip while striking out 16.2% of the time as a junior. He popped 22 home runs in 54 games.

Listed at 6’5″ and 240 pounds, Kurtz has obvious power potential. He’s an exceptionally patient hitter, although FanGraphs wrote in their pre-draft report that his approach borders on passive. FanGraphs ranked Kurtz as the #17 prospect in the class. Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and The Athletic’s Keith Law each had him in the back half of the top 10. The primary concern is in Kurtz’s limited defensive profile. While he’s a quality defender at first base, he’s already at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. The recent track record for highly-drafted college first basemen (i.e. Andrew Vaughn, Spencer Torkelson) hasn’t been great.

Rockies Place German Marquez On Injured List

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The Rockies placed starter Germán Márquez on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 19, due to elbow inflammation. Colorado recalled right-hander Noah Davis to take the open spot on the active roster.

Márquez heads back to the shelf one week after making his return from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander only made one start, tossing four innings of three-run ball against the Mets the day before the All-Star Break. A quick return to the injured list with another elbow issue is cause for concern, but it seems the Rox expect to avoid the worst. Manager Bud Black told reporters that the team hopes to have Márquez back within a couple weeks (link via Kyle Newman of the Denver Post).

Colorado is well out of playoff contention, so the priority is making sure Márquez gets through the ’24 campaign healthy. The Rockies signed the Venezuelan hurler to a two-year, $20MM contract last September. Márquez is making $10MM annually on a deal that was mostly geared towards 2025. Colorado knew that the former All-Star would miss a good chunk of this season as he finished his rehab. This season is largely about building his innings count so he can hold up over a full schedule next year.

This bout of elbow inflammation represents an obvious setback, although it’s possible Márquez returns in August and can pitch for a few weeks down the stretch. There was never much of an expectation that Colorado would trade the 29-year-old this closely removed from surgery. Today’s IL placement seemingly slams that door shut.

Austin Gomber takes the ball tonight against the Red Sox in the series opener at Coors Field. Márquez had been slated to go on Tuesday. Newman writes that left-hander Ty Blach is likely to get the start instead. Blach has started nine of 16 appearances on the season, turning in a 5.46 ERA through 59 1/3 innings. He could step into the starting five behind Cal Quantrill, Kyle Freeland, Gomber and Ryan Feltner. The Rockies are reportedly willing to consider trade offers on Quantrill and Gomber, potentially opening up another rotation spot or two in the next week.

Tigers Agree To Deal With First-Round Pick Bryce Rainer

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The Tigers are in agreement with first-round draftee Bryce Rainer on a $5.8MM bonus, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (X link). That’s narrowly above the approximate $5.71MM slot value for the 11th overall pick.

A 6’3″ high school shortstop from Southern California, Rainer had been committed to the University of Texas. He was the second prep player off the board — Pittsburgh selected Konnor Griffin at #9 — in a college-heavy first round. Rainer was arguably the top high school talent in the class. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the lefty-hitting infielder as the best high schooler and the #6 draft prospect overall. He ranked ninth or tenth on pre-draft rankings at FanGraphs, Baseball America and on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic.

Evaluators credit Rainer with the potential for plus power and the chance to stick on the left side of the infield. Scouting reports universally praise his excellent arm strength which would play at third base even if he outgrows shortstop. There’s some trepidation about his hit tool — Law notes that Rainer doesn’t have great bat speed and hasn’t handled plus velocity well — but there’s clearly significant upside if Rainer sticks at shortstop and can tap into 20+ homer power annually.

Detroit has five prospects in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update, including three players (Jackson Jobe, Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle) in the top 30. Rainer might not immediately jump into the upper half of that list, but he adds another high-upside talent to the farm system.

Latest On Rays’ Deadline Approach

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The Rays are among the more interesting bubble teams with the deadline eight days off. Tampa Bay entered today’s series finale with the Yankees at 50-49. They dropped the game 9-1, putting them back to .500.

Today’s loss knocked Tampa Bay five games behind the Royals, who hold the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox and Mariners also sit between the Rays and the last playoff spot. They’re 10.5 back with three teams to jump in the AL East, so it’s almost certainly Wild Card or bust. A five-game deficit certainly isn’t insurmountable, but it’s not an easy gap to close either (especially with multiple teams to jump).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last night that the Rays are expected to both buy and sell at the deadline. Presumably, that’d take the form of shopping players on more expensive salaries and/or a dwindling control window while exploring acquisitions of MLB-ready talent that could aid the Rays in a longer shot playoff push this season and contribute to the 2025 roster. Tampa Bay’s front office is plenty familiar with trying to strike that balance as they look to remain annually competitive despite bottom five player payrolls.

The Rays have no shortage of veterans who’d generate interest. The Rays had five players on MLBTR’s initial list of Top 50 trade candidates last week: Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Pete Fairbanks, Randy Arozarena and Jason Adam. There’d be a ton of interest in Isaac Paredes if the Rays genuinely considered moving their All-Star third baseman. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote last week that the Rays are willing to listen on Paredes, though there’s nothing to suggest that’s more than the organization’s standard openness to talking about every player.

Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz are each making between $8MM and $9MM and would be appealing targets in a light infield market. Amed Rosario has had a nice rebound season after signing a surprisingly low $1.5MM free agent deal. He’s headed back to free agency next winter and offers multi-positional versatility and plus contact skills from the right side. Virtually every contender could squeeze him onto the roster and in their payroll ledger.

Tampa Bay certainly isn’t going to trade everyone from that group. The Rays have never been keen on completely tearing down the roster and embarking on multi-year rebuilds. They’re not far enough from the playoff mix to make that advisable regardless. Yet it’d be surprising if the Rays didn’t at least move one or two veterans. Rosario, as their only impending free agent of note, is the most obvious candidate. The front office is clearly willing to deal some players under team control beyond this season, as evidenced by their trade of starter Aaron Civale (who is eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter) to Milwaukee.

Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Rays could be more apt to trade players who are going yearly through arbitration than to deal those playing on guaranteed contracts. Arozarena, Paredes, Littell and Adam fall into the first bucket. Fairbanks, Díaz and Lowe have signed extensions, while Eflin joined Tampa Bay on a three-year free agent deal. There’s not much difference between players on guaranteed contracts versus arbitration salaries in practice, but The Athletic writes that the Rays could feel more of an obligation to hold the players who have committed to the franchise for multiple seasons.

While that’s a possible factor, it’d be surprising if the Rays drew too rigid a distinction. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot — each of whom had signed an extension — to the Dodgers last winter. Glasnow’s deal sent him close to home on the West Coast and came in conjunction with another extension with L.A.; the Dodgers flipped Margot to Minnesota within a few weeks. Tampa Bay traded Blake Snell within two years of signing him to a five-year extension back in December 2020.

Eflin ($11MM), Lowe ($8.75MM) and Díaz ($8MM) have the highest salaries among players on multi-year deals. Arozarena’s $8.1MM salary is by far the highest of Tampa Bay’s group of players on arbitration deals. Eflin will make $18MM next year in the final season of his backloaded contract. Díaz is set to make $10MM next season on a deal that has a $12MM team option for 2026. The Rays hold club options on Lowe (valued at $10.5MM and $11.5MM, respectively) for the next two seasons.

Arozarena is set to go through arbitration twice more, while Paredes is eligible for arbitration through the ’27 campaign. He’ll certainly be in line for a lofty raise on this year’s $3.4MM salary. Fairbanks, Adam, Rosario and Littell are all on modest salaries; Fairbanks’ $3.666MM figure is the highest of the bunch. All but Rosario are under contract or club control for at least another season.

If the Rays ultimately straddle the line between buying and selling, they’re fairly well positioned to deal from their rotation and infield. Shane Baz’s return from Tommy John surgery was one motive for the Civale trade. The Rays could welcome back Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen over the next couple months and will get Shane McClanahan back in 2025 — perhaps lessening the sting of a deal involving Eflin or Littell. Upper level infielders like Curtis Mead and top prospect Junior Caminero could make it easier to part with Lowe. That’s arguably also true of Paredes, although it’d have been an easier sell if Caminero hadn’t had two extended injured list stints in Triple-A this year because of quad issues.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have as much long-term stability in the outfield, particularly if they move Arozarena at some point. At catcher, they’ve gotten good production this year out of Ben Rortvedt but could still look for a clearer long-term answer. Tampa Bay’s typically excellent bullpen has been an unexpected issue this season, so that’s another area where the Rays may look to add.

Jays Notes: Bichette, Garcia, Votto

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Bo Bichette exited tonight’s game after six innings. The Blue Jays shortstop came up limping out of the batter’s box after hitting a line drive to right field. Toronto announced that Bichette suffered a right calf injury. Manager John Schneider said postgame that he was headed for an MRI (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).

A strain in the same calf sent Bichette to the injured list last month. The 26-year-old infielder returned after a minimal stint. Tonight’s evident setback could send him back to the shelf. Even a minimal IL stay would keep him out through the July 30 trade deadline.

With the Jays plummeting out of playoff contention, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been the subject of some trade speculation. GM Ross Atkins shot down the chance of moving either player last month, but the Jays have fallen more definitely from the postseason fringe since then. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported last week that Toronto was still more focused on moving impending free agents. Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM next season and will hit free agency after the ’25 campaign.

This summer would be an inopportune time to deal Bichette even if the Jays listen to offers on more controllable players. This has been by far the most challenging season of his career. He’s hitting .222/.275/.320 over 331 trips to the plate. Bichette has four longballs after reaching the 20-homer threshold in three consecutive seasons. He might now be headed for his second IL stint in as many months.

In more positive injury news, the Jays welcomed Yimi García back from the 15-day injured list before today’s game. The veteran reliever missed a month with ulnar neuritis in his elbow. García is one of six impending free agents on the Toronto roster and has a strong chance to move before the deadline. The right-hander owns a 2.57 ERA through 28 innings. García is running a personal-best 34.6% strikeout rate while generating swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings. He’s playing on a $6MM salary and should be a target for contenders seeking a setup option.

Justin Turner is another of the rentals whom the Jays could look to move this month. Dealing Turner would open the designated hitter spot. That’d theoretically open an opportunity for Joey Votto. Unfortunately, the former MVP’s homecoming with the Jays has been sidetracked by injuries. Votto hurt his right ankle during Spring Training and has spent the season on the Triple-A injured list. He was set to begin his stint for Triple-A Buffalo tonight before tweaking his ankle during pre-game work (relayed on X by Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). He’ll be reevaluated tomorrow.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/19/24

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Friday saw a handful of top 10 picks put pen to paper, including #1 overall selection Travis Bazzana. We’ve already covered significant deals for Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Christian Moore and Seaver King this afternoon. A few more notable draft signings of the past 24 hours:

  • The Marlins agreed to a $3.4MM deal with first-round pick PJ Morlando, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s well shy of the approximate $4.7MM slot value of the 16th overall selection. While it’s somewhat rare to see a high school player sign for well below slot, the deal allowed Morlando to push into the middle of the first round. FanGraphs, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each ranked the South Carolina commit between 33rd and 52nd in their pre-draft rankings. Evaluators credit the left-handed hitter with advanced contact skills and huge raw power that he shows mostly in batting practice. BA writes that Morlando entered the year as a potential top 10 pick but had a disappointing spring. Law suggests he’s likely to require a mechanical change in pro ball to better integrate his lower body into his swing. Morlando projects to left field or first base, putting a lot of pressure on him to maximize his offensive potential. The $3.4MM bonus falls between the slot values of the 25th and 26th picks, valuing Morlando as a late first-round talent.
  • The Braves are in agreement with 24th overall pick Cam Caminiti on a $3.5563MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). It’s full slot value for the Arizona prep left-hander. An LSU commit, Caminiti was the first high school pitcher off the board. Evaluators credit him with mid-90s fastball velocity and an advanced changeup. Law writes that the 6’2″ southpaw developed his curveball into an average or better offering this spring. There’s plenty of risk with the high school pitching demographic, but Caminiti has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
  • Supplemental first-round pick Griff O’Ferrall is in agreement with the Orioles on a $2.7MM bonus, Callis reports (on X). That’s just shy of the $2.84MM slot value for the 32nd pick. A shortstop from the University of Virginia, O’Ferrall was a divisive pre-draft prospect. McDaniel and Law each had the right-handed hitter among the 35 best players in the class. He ranked 49th at FanGraphs and 115th on Baseball America’s draft board. O’Ferrall makes a ton of contact, striking out just 24 times in 323 plate appearances (a 7.4% rate) in his draft year. He hit .324/.367/.454 with five homers over 63 contests as a junior. The more optimistic reports suggest O’Ferrall could be a regular at shortstop based on his bat-to-ball skills and an above-average glove. BA suggests his arm strength might push him to second base, where his minimal power upside could be more of a concern.

Marlins, Pirates Have Had “Exploratory” Talks On Jazz Chisholm

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Jazz Chisholm Jr. is one of the more interesting position players who is likely to move by the end of the month. The Yankees, Royals and Mariners have all been linked to Miami’s center fielder/second baseman. The Pirates have also been loosely floated as a potential Chisholm fit.

Craig Mish of the Miami Herald and SportsGrid appeared on 93.7 The Fan this afternoon (YouTube link, beginning around 9:27). Mish said that Pittsburgh and Miami have indeed discussed Chisholm, though he characterized those talks as “exploratory” in nature. According to Mish, a few teams other than Pittsburgh have expressed more serious interest to this point. While there’s clearly nothing imminent, Chisholm is on Pittsburgh’s radar to some extent as the Bucs look to add offense.

Chisholm’s defensive flexibility makes him a viable target for a lot of teams. He has primarily played center field going back to the start of the 2023 season. Miami gave him a start at second base last weekend for the first time since 2022. Chisholm was back in center field for tonight’s series opener against the Mets.

The 26-year-old can fit on teams looking for help at either position. The Pirates haven’t gotten much production out of either center field or second base. Pittsburgh center fielders entered play tonight with a dismal .206/.267/.297 slash line that bests only the Cardinals’ offensive output. Michael A. Taylor remains an elite defender but he’s having the worst offensive season of his career, hitting .203/.258/.279 in 73 games.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been a whole lot better at second base. They’ve gotten a .253/.315/.349 performance out of the position. Nick Gonzales got out to an excellent start to the season upon being recalled in May. The former seventh overall pick has slumped to a .240/.269/.349 line in 156 plate appearances since the start of June. Gonzales hit a walk-off single tonight to complete an 8-7 comeback win over the Phillies, but he wasn’t performing well going into the All-Star Break.

Tonight’s victory pushed the Pirates above .500 at 49-48. They’re half a game back of the Mets and Diamondbacks, who are tied for the National League’s last Wild Card spot. Pittsburgh is in position to add at the deadline for the first time in years, although it’s unclear how willing GM Ben Cherington would be to subtract from the top of their farm system. As Darragh McDonald explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers on Wednesday, the Bucs have ample rotation depth. Miami isn’t going to look for immediate starting pitching in a Chisholm deal — Mish suggests the Marlins could target prospects who are two to three years from the big leagues — but the Bucs’ depth could free them to deal a pitching prospect or two for offense. Chisholm is hitting .251/.322/.407 and is under arbitration control through 2026.

Latest On Mason Miller’s Trade Market

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There’s no bigger target on the relief market than A’s breakout closer Mason Miller. The All-Star righty begins the second half with a 2.27 earned run average through 39 2/3 innings. He has punched out 70 of 150 opponents (an absurd 46.7% rate) while locking down 15 of 17 save chances. Miller might be the most dominant relief force in the league at the moment.

Oakland general manager David Forst will receive no shortage of trade calls over the next week and a half. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Orioles are among the teams with interest in Miller. Heyman adds that Baltimore also remains connected to old friend Tanner Scott, to whom they’ve been linked for the better part of two months. The O’s are generally expected to land a high-leverage reliever who can either supplant Craig Kimbrel as closer or bridge the gap to the ninth inning.

The Marlins will almost certainly deal Scott, an impending free agent, by July 30. It’d be significantly harder to pry Miller from the A’s. He’s under club control for five seasons after this one. Even a rebuilding team is under no pressure to move him. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote this evening that executives outside of Oakland remain skeptical that the A’s will deal Miller. They’ll have an exorbitant asking price, at the very least.

Miller’s injury history is the main argument for the A’s to move him this summer. The 25-year-old missed most of the 2022 season battling shoulder problems. He lost the bulk of the ’23 campaign to a UCL sprain in his elbow. Miller throws as hard as anyone in baseball and has had a pair of extended arm-related absences within the last three years. There’s clearly some level of risk that he suffers another injury. The A’s are unlikely to be competitive before the 2026 season at the earliest, so Miller could make more of an immediate impact on a team with nearer playoff aspirations.

Yet as appealing as Miller already is as an elite closer, there’s a chance he improves his value even more in the next year or two. Miller was a starting pitcher in the minors and for his first few weeks in the big leagues. Oakland moved him to the bullpen this year as a means of keeping his innings in check. Forst said at the time of the bullpen transfer that the A’s might stretch Miller back out as a starter in 2025. It’d be tempting to keep him in the bullpen now that the team has seen how dominant he is in that role, but no one has ruled out a return to starting. Miller told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last week that he’s not closing off the possibility of moving back to the rotation in ’25 or beyond.

Garrett Crochet has dramatically elevated his trade value with three months of ace production. There’s no guarantee Miller would take to a rotation move the way that Crochet has, of course, but it’s not hard to see the potential for him to be an impact starter. If he ran with a rotation opportunity next season, he’d further elevate his stock both within the organization and on the trade market.

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