Padres Sign Oscar Mercado, Kevin Plawecki To Minor League Deals
The Padres have signed outfielder Óscar Mercado and catcher Kevin Plawecki to minor league contracts with invitations to big league Spring Training, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. According to the MLB.com transaction tracker, San Diego also has minor league agreements with outfielder Bryce Johnson and left-hander Daniel Camarena.
Mercado returns to the Padres after logging some Triple-A time there a season ago. The 29-year-old had an excellent 30-game run with their top farm team in El Paso, hitting .339/.399/.669 with 10 homers and steals apiece. San Diego declined to give him a major league look and he finished the year on a minor league pact with the Dodgers.
Before his stint with the Padres, the Colombian-born outfielder had gotten into 20 MLB games for the Cardinals last year. He has reached the majors in five straight seasons, operating in a depth capacity for most of the time since a solid debut campaign in Cleveland. He’s a .237/.289/.388 hitter in a little under 1000 MLB plate appearances, but he’s a plus runner who can handle all three outfield positions.
Plawecki, 33 in February, spent all of last season in Triple-A. As with Mercado, he briefly joined the San Diego organization midseason. The right-handed hitter combined for a .272/.349/.389 showing in 269 plate appearances with the affiliates for the Nationals, Padres and Rangers. San Diego dealt him to Texas for cash around the deadline.
Last year was the first time since 2014 that Plawecki didn’t see any big league work. He’s a .235/.313/.341 hitter over 449 career games. He’ll add non-roster depth behind the MLB catching duo of Luis Campusano and Kyle Higashioka, although Brett Sullivan has a 40-man roster spot and is above him on the depth chart.
Johnson is a former sixth-round draftee who had spent his entire career with the Giants. The Sam Houston State product reached the majors briefly in each of the last two years, hitting .148/.209/.213 in 67 trips to the plate. As one would expect, Johnson has had more success in Triple-A. He’s a .286/.373/.429 batter over parts of three seasons at the Triple-A level. The 28-year-old has experience at each outfield spot.
Camarena’s lone big league experience consists of six appearances for the Friars in 2021. He’s most well-known for connecting on a stunning grand slam off Max Scherzer. The 31-year-old southpaw has spent a good chunk of time in the San Diego farm system. He pitched for Double-A San Antonio a year ago, posting a 6.20 ERA through 69 2/3 innings.
Mets Indicating Willingness To Trade Omar Narvaez
The Mets are telling teams they’re open to dealing Omar Narváez, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear whether any clubs are interested in the left-handed hitting catcher, although the Mets would very likely have to pay down some portion of his contract to facilitate a move.
It’s the second straight offseason in which New York is looking to move a veteran catcher fairly early into a free agent deal. The Mets surprisingly guaranteed Narváez $15MM over two seasons. He made $8MM last year and had a $7MM player option for 2024. The Narváez pickup led the Mets to cut bait on James McCann two seasons into a four-year, $40MM pact. New York paid all but $5MM of the $24MM remaining on McCann’s deal to offload him to the Orioles.
The Narváez signing wasn’t as costly as the McCann acquisition. It started similarly poorly, however. Narváez suffered a significant strain of his left calf within the season’s first two weeks. He was sidelined into June. By the time he returned, rookie Francisco Álvarez had taken over as the starter. Narváez was pushed into a depth role and didn’t perform well.
In 49 games, Narváez hit .211/.283/.297 with a pair of home runs. That’s on the heels of a similarly underwhelming .206/.292/.305 line in 296 plate appearances for the Brewers in 2022. Narváez had a solid ’21 campaign (.266/.342/.402 over 445 trips to the plate) but has been a well below-average hitter in three of the past four seasons. It’s a notable step back from 2017-19, when Narváez was somewhat quietly one of the better offensive catchers in MLB.
To his credit, the eight-year veteran has generally improved behind the plate as his numbers at the dish have regressed. Statcast graded Narváez as an above-average pitch framer each season from 2020-22. That reflected a seemingly concerted effort to improve his receiving after being traded from the Mariners to Milwaukee going into the 2020 season. Narváez has never had a great throwing arm, though, which opponents exploited with more favorable baserunning rules last year. He threw out only six of 52 stolen base attempts, an 11.5% success rate that was well off the 19.8% league average.
Between the calf injury and a replacement-level performance, Narváez had an easy decision to exercise his player option. While his path to playing time in Queens is limited, he wouldn’t have found a $7MM contract if he returned to free agency. It’s hard to envision another team taking the full salary in trade either, but the Mets haven’t had many qualms about paying down contracts. They’ve done so with back-of-the-roster players like McCann and Eduardo Escobar and in blockbuster transactions involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
President of baseball operations David Stearns wasn’t involved in the decision to sign Narváez, although he’s familiar with the player from their time in Milwaukee. One of Stearns’ first moves with the Mets was to claim Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays. He joins Álvarez and Narváez as the three catchers on the 40-man roster.
Tomás Nido, who has played parts of seven MLB seasons as a Met, remains in the organization after being outrighted in June (a move that coincided with Narváez’s return from the calf strain). Nido hit .281/.336/.393 in 39 games at Triple-A Syracuse after clearing waivers. He’ll make $2.1MM next season as part of a two-year deal he signed to avoid arbitration last offseason.
Reds Outright Austin Wynns
The Reds announced they’ve assigned catcher Austin Wynns outright to Triple-A Louisville after he cleared waivers. Cincinnati designated him for assignment on Tuesday as the corresponding move to sign Frankie Montas. The Reds also announced they received cash considerations from the Giants to complete the December 19 trade that sent outfielder TJ Hopkins to San Francisco.
Trading Hopkins was coincidentally necessitated by the signing of Wynns to a free agent deal. The Reds inked the 33-year-old backstop to a one-year pact. He held his spot on the 40-man roster for roughly three weeks. Tuesday’s DFA again leaves Cincinnati with Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile as the only catchers on the 40-man.
While it’s not the outcome Wynns had wanted, it’s likely one he knew was a possibility. He signed a split contract that would pay him at a $900K rate for time spent in the majors and $300K for whatever work he logs in Triple-A. Wynns is out of minor league options, so the only way he’d have gotten to Triple-A is if Cincinnati ran him through outright waivers at some point.
With over three years of big league service time, Wynns technically has the right to reject the assignment and return to the free agent market. Doing so would require forfeiting the $300K sum he locked in on the split deal, however. He’ll likely accept the assignment and report to big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t land an Opening Day spot, he can start the year in Louisville while earning a decent salary for a minor league player.
Wynns stands as the top non-roster option if the Reds decide to go back to a three-catcher group — as they did last season with Stephenson, Maile and Curt Casali. Wynns is coming off a poor offensive showing in which he hit .208/.268/.277 over 51 games between the Giants, Dodgers and Rockies. He has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he has parts of five seasons of big league experience and rated as a solid defender last season. He thwarted an excellent 30.8% of stolen base attempts with career-best marks as a pitch framer.
Tigers, Andrew Vasquez Agree To Minor League Contract
The Tigers re-signed lefty reliever Andrew Vasquez to a minor league contract with an invite to big league Spring Training, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. He finished last season in Detroit after being claimed off waivers from Philadelphia in early August.
Vasquez, 30, made 42 appearances at the big league level a year ago. He tossed 48 1/3 innings between the Phillies and Tigers, handily surpassing the 15 1/3 frames he logged from 2019-22 combined. Vasquez managed excellent results in Philadelphia, working to a 2.27 ERA across 30 appearances. That came in spite of a middling 20% strikeout percentage and a very modest 7.7% swinging strike rate. Clearly skeptical of his ability to continue keeping runs off the board at an elite level, Philadelphia designated him for assignment on August 2.
His results indeed fell off in the Motor City, albeit in a very small sample. Vasquez allowed nine runs (eight earned) with nine strikeouts and walks apiece over 8 2/3 innings. He finished the season with a 3.35 ERA over 48 1/3 frames and went unclaimed on waivers at the beginning of the offseason. Vasquez elected minor league free agency before returning to Detroit in a non-roster capacity.
Vasquez brings an atypical approach, leaning very heavily on a slider to offset a lack of velocity. He threw his breaking ball nearly 82% of the time last season. While that pitch did an excellent job avoiding hard contact, it didn’t generate the kind of swing-and-miss that teams prioritize in the bullpen. As a result, Vasquez will need to reclaim a 40-man spot to get back to the majors.
The Tigers have Andrew Chafin and Tyler Holton as southpaws locked into season-opening spots in the relief corps. Joey Wentz is out of options, so he’ll need to be on the MLB roster in some capacity unless Detroit is willing to risk losing him on waivers or via minor trade. Vasquez is out of options himself. If the Tigers call him up at any point, they’d need to keep him in the majors or again make him available to other teams.
The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities
There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.
On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.
“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”
Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.
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Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.
At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.
López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.
Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.
Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.
The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.
Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.
The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).
Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“
Padres Sign Woo-Suk Go To Two-Year Deal
The Padres announced the signing of reliever Woo-Suk Go to a two-year contract with a mutual option covering the 2026 season. He is reportedly guaranteed $4.5MM. Go will make $1.75MM this year and $2.25MM in 2025. There’s a $500K buyout on the option, which is valued at $3MM. San Diego will also owe a $900K posting fee to the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization. The Friars still have five vacancies on the 40-man roster.
The contract also contains a number of performance bonuses. Go would receive an additional $100K if he reaches 70 appearances next season. He can unlock up to $400K in bonuses for 2025 as well: $100K apiece at 40, 45, 55 and 60 games. His 2025 salary could jump by as much as $500K if he reaches 45 games finished next season. Unless the mutual option is exercised, Go will return to free agency two years from now. While he’ll still be well shy of six years of MLB service, most major league deals for players from a foreign professional league include a clause that sends the player back to free agency once the contract expires.
Go, a 25-year-old righty, has pitched parts of seven seasons in the KBO. He has worked as a pure reliever throughout that time, operating as the LG Twins closer for the past five years. After struggling during his first two seasons as a teenager, Go has been a solid bullpen arm for a half-decade.
He has rattled off four seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, including three campaigns allowing fewer than 2.20 earned runs per nine. Go surpassed 30 saves in each of 2019, ’21 and ’22. He has fanned more than 26% of batters faced in each of the last five years, topping the 30% mark in the last two seasons.
While Go has consistently shown the ability to miss bats, he hasn’t always been around the strike zone. He has walked more than 10% of opposing hitters in four of his seven seasons. Go issued free passes to an alarming 11.6% of batters faced last year, contributing to a 3.68 ERA that made for more of a solid than exceptional platform showing.
Public scouting reports have generally pegged Go as a likely middle reliever at the big league level. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes that Go leans primarily on a mid-90s fastball and low-90s cutter while occasionally mixing in a curveball. That’s an intriguing arsenal, but the fringy control could make him a risk in higher-leverage spots.
The Twins made Go available via the posting system on December 4. That opened a 30-day period for him to sign with a major league club. (Unlike Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, whose posting windows last 45 days, there’s a 30-day opening for South Korean players). That was concluding this afternoon. If Go hadn’t signed with an MLB team by 4:00 pm CST, he’d have remained with the Twins for another season.
San Diego has been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams in targeting players making the jump from Asian professional leagues. They recently signed lefty Yuki Matsui to a five-year, $28MM pact as he came over from NPB. San Diego has added Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO and the likes of Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez from NPB in previous offseasons.
With Josh Hader, Martinez and Luis García hitting free agency, the Padres have Matsui and Suarez as their top two leverage relievers. Go joins that mix alongside righty Enyel De Los Santos, whom San Diego acquired from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow this winter. Go is reportedly in the mix for the ninth inning.
Under the MLB-KBO posting agreement, the release fee is proportional to the size of the contract. For players guaranteed $25MM or less, it is calculated as 20% of the contract value. The $900K fee brings San Diego’s total outlay for Go to $5.4MM.
The deal’s $2.25MM average annual value brings San Diego’s projected luxury tax number to roughly $212MM, according to Roster Resource. That’s $25MM shy of next year’s lowest threshold. Their actual payroll sits in the $156MM range. Even in an offseason defined by budgetary limitations, adding Go shouldn’t have much of an impact on San Diego’s ability to continue bolstering the roster. The Padres still need one or two outfield acquisitions and would benefit from a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Go and the Padres were nearing an agreement. The Post’s Joel Sherman reported the sides had agreed to a two-year, $4.5MM guarantee. Dennis Lin of The Athletic was first to report the 2026 mutual option and the specific salary breakdown. The Associated Press reported the bonuses and escalators.
Reports: Wander Franco Detained In Dominican Republic
January 3: Prosecutors accused Franco of commercial sexual exploitation and money laundering on Wednesday, according to a report from the Associated Press. The money laundering charges stem from law enforcement’s assertion that Franco paid the mother of one of the minors. As previously reported, the mother has also been detained. Prosecutors are requesting that a judge order Franco and the woman each remain confined under house arrest and prevented from leaving the country.
A hearing is scheduled for Friday morning, at which point a judge will decide whether Franco is to be released on bond pending further investigation and trial.
January 1: Authorities in Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic have arrested Wander Franco, according to multiple reports out of the D.R. (Spanish-language link via Listín Diario and ESPN Dominican Republic). He is expected to go in front of a judge for arraignment proceedings within the next 48 hours.
Officials have investigated two formal allegations that Franco has had inappropriate relationships with minors. (A third minor has made similar claims but did not file an official complaint.) According to Listín Diario, the mother of one of the alleged victims was also detained this afternoon.
Franco’s arrest was for failure to report for a summons last week, not a reflection of any new information in the investigations themselves, according to a report from ESPN.
The allegations against Franco went viral on social media on August 13. The Rays placed him on the restricted list the following day. A week later, he was transferred to administrative leave — common practice for players under investigation for possible violations of the MLB/MLBPA Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy. Franco was reinstated onto the Rays’ 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason in a procedural transaction.
While MLB quickly opened its own investigation into the social media allegations, the league is awaiting resolution of the legal process in the Dominican Republic before acting. Authorities summoned Franco for questioning last Wednesday. The 22-year-old did not report at the time. His previous attorneys later informed prosecutors that Franco had dismissed them. He did appear for questioning alongside his new legal representation this morning. Following that meeting with investigators, he was detained.
Diamondbacks Sign Logan Allen To Minor League Contract
The D-Backs signed lefty Logan Allen to a minor league contract yesterday, according to an announcement from their Triple-A team in Reno. He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster Spring Training invitee.
Allen, 26, is the older of the two Logan Allens with MLB experience. As with the current Guardians starter of the same name, he was once a fairly well-regarded prospect in the Cleveland farm system. The 26-year-old Allen has yet to find much MLB success, however. Over three seasons in Cleveland, he pitched to a 5.45 ERA in 69 1/3 innings. The Guardians waived him in May 2022, where he was nabbed by the Orioles.
He made three relief appearances before Baltimore outrighted him from the 40-man roster. Those are Allen’s most recent MLB outings. He has spent the past year and a half in Triple-A. After finishing the 2022 campaign with the O’s, he split last year with the top affiliates of the Rockies and Mariners.
Allen struggled mightily with Colorado’s highest minor league team, allowing a 7.20 ERA through 45 frames. He found slightly better results after signing with Seattle around the All-Star Break. Over 14 appearances (10 starts) in the Mariner organization, he allowed 4.66 earned runs per nine innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk percentage over that stretch were still worse than average, however. That has generally been the case over parts of five Triple-A seasons, where Allen has a 6.04 ERA.
While he hasn’t found extended success in either the majors or Triple-A, Allen’s results up through Double-A were excellent. Evaluators credited him with an above-average to plus changeup during his time as a prospect. He’s a non-roster depth option who could start or work in long relief with the Aces to open the 2024 campaign.
Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Market
Shota Imanaga is among the more intriguing starting pitchers still on the free agent market. The Japanese left-hander became available to MLB teams on November 27, when he was formally posted by the Yokohama BayStars.
That opened a 45-day window for Imanaga to sign with a major league club. He’ll need to ink a contract with an MLB team by January 11 if he’s to make the jump to North America this offseason. With eight days to go, it’s little surprise Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Imanaga’s market will gain steam this week. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported around Christmas the southpaw was planning a trip to meet with interested teams shortly after the New Year.
The Red Sox, Giants, Mets and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Imanaga since his posting window opened. In mid-December, Jon Heyman of the New York Post also listed the Yankees as a team that was keeping an eye on Imanaga as a fallback option if they missed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
However, Heyman suggested in an appearance on Bleacher Report this afternoon (X link) that the Yankees weren’t enamored with the southpaw. Imanaga allowed 17 home runs in 148 innings a season ago, the second-most in Japan’s top league. New York’s front office seemingly has concerns about how well he’d profile in a park as hitter-friendly as Yankee Stadium.
Despite the home run concerns, the 30-year-old is going to do quite well financially. Imanaga led NPB with 174 strikeouts while issuing only 24 walks (a meager 4% rate). Some evaluators project him as a mid-rotation starter. Passan reiterated this morning that many executives feel he’ll land a contract in excess of $100MM. That’d be well above the five-year, $75MM pact secured by Kodai Senga last winter even though Senga was arguably coming off a better platform showing.
Senga had allowed just seven homers with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a sparkling 1.94 ERA in 2022. Imanaga had a slightly superior strikeout percentage (29.2%) and allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine last year. Senga was also entering his age-30 season. Unlike Imanaga, he was a true free agent, so the Mets weren’t required to send any compensation to his NPB club. Any team that signs Imanaga would owe the BayStars a fee valued at 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.
That said, it’s possible teams harbored reservations about Senga’s health that they won’t have regarding Imanaga. The Mets reportedly expressed some trepidation with his elbow during their physical. That obviously didn’t scuttle the deal, but it could’ve factored into his earning potential.
Imanaga may also benefit from the success Senga had in his first MLB campaign. The righty finished runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year balloting after posting a 2.98 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That Senga looked like more than a mid-rotation starter in his first MLB season could give some clubs added confidence in projecting Imanaga’s ability to handle big league hitters with a fairly similar projection.
Red Sox Sign Lucas Giolito
The Red Sox are taking on a flier on Lucas Giolito, announcing to today that they have signed the right-hander. It is reportedly a two-year, $38.5MM guarantee that allows the CAA client to opt out after the first season. Giolito will collect an $18MM salary next year and would receive a $1MM buyout if he exercises the opt-out. His ’25 salary is worth $19MM.
If he doesn’t opt out next winter, a conditional option kicks in covering the 2026 campaign. Were Giolito to throw fewer than 140 innings in 2025, the Sox would have a $14MM club option. If he reaches or tops 140 frames, he’d convert that provision to a $19MM mutual option. Regardless of the option value, there’d be a $1.5MM buyout. The deal also contains $1MM in performance bonuses in each of the next two seasons.
It’s a modified pillow contract for the 29-year-old. That reflects a dismal final few months of last season. Giolito looked on track for a nine-figure deal early in the summer. Over his first 21 starts with the White Sox, he carried a 3.79 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of batters faced. Chicago’s fall out of contention made him one of the top starters available at the deadline.
A trade sending Giolito alongside reliever Reynaldo López to the Angels looked like a boost to his market value. Joining a fringe contender gave him an outside shot at a playoff berth. More meaningfully for his free agency, it took the qualifying offer off the table, as players who change teams midseason can’t be issued the QO.
That’s not how things played out. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in MLB from the deadline onwards. He made only six starts for the Halos before they placed him on waivers, dumping the remainder of his salary after the team fell from contention to help limbo underneath the luxury tax line. Giolito was hit hard for both Los Angeles and the Guardians, who snagged him off the waiver wire at the end of August.
Over his final 12 appearances, he was tagged for a 6.96 ERA through 63 1/3 innings. He was staggeringly prone to the longball, allowing 21 homers (nearly one in every three innings) over that stretch. His walk rate also spiked. He handed out free passes to nearly 11% of opponents after issuing walks at a manageable 8.3% clip in Chicago.
Short of a major injury, it’d be hard to draw up a more frustrating final two months before free agency. That said, there’s a lot in his career résumé that made him arguably the top reclamation target in the rotation class. Giolito turned in upper mid-rotation results between 2019-21, combining for a 3.47 ERA with an excellent 30.7% strikeout percentage despite the hitter-friendly nature of Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field.
He has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in each of the past two seasons, albeit for different reasons. His 4.90 mark in 2022 was attributable largely to a .340 average on balls in play, by far the highest rate of his career. That dropped to .274 last season, and his early-season results again painted the picture of a solid #3 starter. Then came the late-season homer barrage that left him with a 4.88 ERA at year’s end.
The longball has always been a bit of a problem for Giolito, but his second-half home run rate is unsustainably high. Boston is betting on positive regression in that department, hoping that’ll result in mid-rotation results. While Giolito’s whiffs are down from his 2019-21 peak, he still misses bats at an above-average level. Opposing hitters have swung through 12.2% of his offerings in each of the last two years, which tops the 10.8% league mark for starting pitchers. His fastball sits around 93 MPH and he misses a decent number of bats with both his changeup and slider.
Giolito’s performance has varied over the past few seasons. His durability has not. The 6’6″ hurler has taken the ball almost every fifth day for the last six years. He hasn’t had an injured list stint longer than two weeks at any point in his MLB career. He hasn’t had any arm-related absences as a big leaguer. Giolito has started 29 or more games in each of the past five full schedules and took the full slate of 12 rotation turns during the shortened season. Only Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole, José Berríos and Patrick Corbin have started more games over that stretch. He’s eighth in the majors in innings pitched since 2018.
A source of volume innings is a sensible addition to a talented but volatile Boston pitching staff. Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford are among the in-house options for the Opening Day rotation. Sale has battled various injuries over the past few seasons. Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock and Crawford have all worked out of the bullpen at times. Aside from Crawford, that group has generally found more success in long relief than out of the rotation. Bello’s rotation spot isn’t in jeopardy, but his production dipped at the end of his first full major league season.
That made adding a starter an offseason priority for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. The Sox were on the periphery of the Yoshinobu Yamamoto market before he signed with the Dodgers. They’d been tied to Jordan Montgomery as well, although recent reporting suggested they were pivoting towards the second tier. Giolito becomes Breslow’s first significant free agent acquisition as Boston’s front office leader. The Sox could still explore the rotation market — they’ve recently been tied to NPB left-hander Shota Imanaga and old friend James Paxton — but this signing may lead them to turn their main focus to another area of need like second base.
The contract falls in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $44MM from the start of the offseason, when we ranked him this winter’s #17 free agent. The two-year guarantee with an opt-out after the first season has become more commonplace in recent years for priority rebound candidates. It affords the player more security than would a straight one-year pact while allowing him to get back to the market after one season if he bounces back.
Giolito turns 30 in July, so he’d be well-positioned for a lofty multi-year pact next winter if he gets on track. Since he was ineligible for the qualifying offer, the signing doesn’t cost Boston any draft compensation. If he pitches well enough to opt out a year from now, the Red Sox would likely make him the QO, allowing them to recoup a draft choice if he only spends one year in Massachusetts.
The Red Sox’s 2024 payroll projection now sits around $187MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re just shy of $200MM from a luxury tax perspective, keeping them $37MM below next year’s lowest threshold. Boston opened last season with a player payroll in the $181MM range after topping $206MM the prior season. They did not exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2023.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Red Sox were signing Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM guarantee with an opt-out; Passan was also first with the salary structure and the 2026 option specifics. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the $1MM in annual incentives and specified that the buyout applied regardless of the option scenario.
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