Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers were the best team in the American League for a few months. They had a quiet deadline and narrowly avoided what would've been a historic collapse. While winning the Wild Card series and pushing the Mariners to the brink in the Division Series kept this from being a complete disaster, they unquestionably lost momentum in the second half. They're now facing a couple free agent departures and questions about the future for the sport's best pitcher.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Javier Báez, SS: $48MM through 2027
- Jack Flaherty, RHP: $20MM player option for 2026
- Colt Keith, 3B: $20.642MM through 2029 (including buyout of '30 club option; deal also includes club options for 2031-32)
Option Decisions
- RHP Jack Flaherty holds $20MM player option
- Team, RHP Paul Sewald hold $10MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
- Team holds $4MM option on RHP José Urquidy
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe $1MM buyout to outrighted RHP Randy Dobnak
- Owe $500K buyout to released RHP John Brebbia
2026 guaranteed contracts: $30.5MM or $50.5MM depending on Flaherty's option decision
Total future commitments: $71.142MM or $91.142MM through 2029 depending on Flaherty
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Tanner Rainey (5.167): $1.6MM
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
- Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
- Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
- Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
- Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
- Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
- Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
- Andy Ibañez (3.133): $1.8MM
- Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
- Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
- Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
- Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
- Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM
Non-tender candidates: Rainey, Vierling, Foley, Lange, Ibañez, Brieske
Free Agents
- Jack Flaherty (if he opts out), Gleyber Torres, Kyle Finnegan, Tommy Kahnle, Rafael Montero, Chris Paddack, Paul Sewald, Alex Cobb
It took just a few days after the Tigers were eliminated for speculation to begin about Tarik Skubal. He's a few weeks from his second Cy Young award and now a year away from free agency. Jon Heyman of The New York Post has already suggested Skubal could seek a $400MM contract. Heyman reported that was at least $250MM above what the Tigers were willing to offer during extension talks last winter. Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press subsequently reported that Detroit had offered a four-year deal between $80MM and $100MM.
That was a noncompetitive proposal when Skubal was two years from the open market. His asking price has only climbed after another dominant season that moved him a year closer to free agency. It's not accurate to say that they're facing a $300MM gap -- the Tigers would obviously be willing to offer more than that now -- but it doesn't exactly point to them being likely to hammer out a long-term deal. That naturally leads to wishcasting from other teams (and their fanbases) about the possibility of pulling off a blockbuster trade.
There hasn't been any reporting that the Tigers intend to seriously hear teams out on Skubal, much less actively shop him. The rumors to date have been driven by a few recent instances of contending clubs trading a superstar before his final season of arbitration. The Mookie Betts trade was a disaster for the Red Sox. The Padres did quite well when they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees, winning 90+ games in each of the following two seasons. The Brewers got a solid but not overwhelming return for Corbin Burnes and have remained one of the NL's best teams over the past couple years. The Astros landed a strong three-player package for Kyle Tucker but narrowly missed the playoffs in year one.
The Tigers have made consecutive playoff appearances after a nine-year drought. The front office has already come under fire for a deadline where they deepened the pitching staff in bulk without parting with any significant prospects for an impact acquisition (aside from arguably Kyle Finnegan). They already have a top-tier farm system and could enter the offseason with as little as $30.5MM in guaranteed contracts. They can easily accommodate a projected $17.8MM arbitration salary for Skubal.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Nationals Interview Brandon Hyde, Craig Albernaz
2:47PM: The Nationals also conducted interviews with both Cairo and Guardians associate manager Craig Albernaz within the last week, the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden reports. Albernaz has been a candidate for managerial vacancies with the Giants, Guardians, White Sox, and Marlins over the last two years, and was a finalist for both the Chicago and Miami jobs.
Albernaz worked as Cleveland’s bench coach in 2024 before moving into his current job title this season. Before arriving in Cleveland, Albernaz spent four years on the Giants’ staff as a bullpen/catching coach, and four seasons in various roles in the Rays’ minor league system (including two managerial stints).
2:24PM: Brandon Hyde has interviewed with the Nationals about the team’s managerial vacancy, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Hyde becomes the first known candidate for the manager’s job, as Washington’s first order of business was its search for new front office boss.
Paul Toboni has now had a month as president of baseball operations. The Nats haven’t formally ruled out retaining interim manager Miguel Cairo, but it appears likelier that Toboni will want to hire his own replacement. He’s already begun reshaping the front office, including tabbing Justin Horowitz as an assistant general manager on Friday afternoon.
Hyde is plenty familiar with the Beltway after managing in Baltimore for parts of seven seasons. The O’s won 46.1% of games during Hyde’s tenure, though that’s largely weighed down by the full rebuild in which they were mired for the first three years. Hyde led the O’s to three consecutive winning seasons, including playoff berths in 2023 and ’24. Baltimore didn’t find any playoff success in either of those years but went into this season expecting to compete in the AL East.
A terrible start tanked those plans by April. The O’s were 15-28 when they fired Hyde on May 17. Baltimore played roughly .500 ball the rest of the way under Tony Mansolino. Hyde has been clear that he hopes to find another managerial opportunity. He was very loosely tied to the Giants’ and Angels’ searches that respectively landed on Tony Vitello and Kurt Suzuki. It’s not clear if Hyde ever interviewed for either position, though Heyman writes that he has had interviews beyond the sit-down with Washington.
Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher
MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve gone through each offensive position and now turn to the starting rotation. For this exercise, we’re focused on pitchers who spent most of this past season working as a starter. Some relievers (e.g. Luke Weaver, Steven Matz, Sean Newcomb) could also receive rotation interest. They’ll be covered in the respective reliever previews. Player ages, listed in parentheses, are for the 2026 season.
Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, right-handed relief
Top Group
- Dylan Cease (30)
Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would’ve positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, ’24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, ’25).
The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He’s eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It’s the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year’s 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate.
All that said, Cease’s camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn’t work beyond six frames after June 21.
The Padres will issue Cease a qualifying offer, which he’s a lock to decline. If a $200MM offer doesn’t materialize, it’d make sense for him to look for a two- or three-year guarantee that allows him to opt out and give free agency another go next winter. It’s tough to see him splitting the difference and accepting a four- or five-year deal without opt-outs that pays him like a #3/4 starter.
- Tatsuya Imai (28)*
Imai, who is likely to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He might command the top contract of any pitcher. The 5’11” hurler won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He has posted ace-caliber numbers in consecutive seasons. Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league (minimum 100 innings) with a 27.8% strikeout rate.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in September that contract estimates from people with whom he spoke ranged from $80MM to over $200MM. Imai isn’t the slam dunk ace that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he commanded $325MM from the Dodgers. He’s younger and throws a lot harder than Shota Imanaga did when he signed a four-year, $53MM guarantee.
Teams are going to have different evaluations on his stuff and some clubs might feel there’s a risk that his command projects him to relief. Imai has improved his control each season and is coming off a solid 7% walk rate, but he’d issued free passes to more than 9% of opponents in every year before this one. Whatever team wins the bidding will be one that views Imai as a slam dunk starter, though, and he’s likely to be paid as a #3 arm who is in the prime of his career.
- Ranger Suárez (30)
Suárez has been a steady #2/3 starter for the Phillies over the past four seasons. He’s coming off arguably the best year of his career. He turned in a 3.20 ERA over a personal-high 157 1/3 innings. Suárez fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against an excellent 5.8% walk rate. He reliably gets weak contact and has gotten ground-balls at a 51% clip since the start of 2022.
The lefty doesn’t have the kind of power stuff that tends to get paid highly. He hasn’t reached a league average swinging strike rate in any of the last four years. His sinker has averaged between 90-91 MPH in each of the past two seasons. The multi-year track record should support a nine-figure deal spanning five or six years. Suárez will reject a qualifying offer and be attached to draft compensation.
- Framber Valdez (32)
Valdez is now the top domestic free agent starter in the class. The southpaw is coming off his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons. Valdez has slightly above-average strikeout stuff, but his standout skill is an elite ground-ball rate. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater, so he’s hardly a soft-tossing grounder specialist. There are clear parallels to Max Fried, who commanded an eight-year and $218MM deal last winter.
Valdez isn’t going to get that long of a contract. There hasn’t been a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher in a decade. Valdez would have had a better case to snap that precedent had he finished the season well. He ended with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts. Valdez was also at the center of controversy when he didn’t appear to show much concern after a cross-up that led him to drill catcher César Salazar in the chest. The Astros downplayed that publicly, but he could face some questions about the situation from interested teams.
That’s unlikely to stop him from commanding a five-year contract that pays between $25-30MM annually. He’ll cost a team a draft choice after he declines a qualifying offer. Extension talks with the Astros never gained traction and he’s expected to sign elsewhere.
Second Tier
- Shane Bieber (31)
Bieber is technically weighing a $16MM player option versus a $4MM buyout. It’s an obvious decision for him to opt out. The former Cy Young winner signed a two-year deal to return to Cleveland when he was halfway through rehab from April 2024 Tommy John surgery. The recovery went mostly as expected. He had a brief setback in June when he was scratched from a rehab start with elbow soreness. That prevented him from returning to an MLB mound before the trade deadline, but he was back on a rehab assignment by July.
The Blue Jays were encouraged enough by his form to give up a legitimate pitching prospect, Khal Stephen, to acquire him. It paid off, as Bieber turned in a 3.57 ERA over seven regular season starts. He averaged nearly six innings per start while striking out 23.3% of opponents against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has taken the ball three times in the postseason, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 12 1/3 frames. His 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is excellent, but he has given up a home run in each of his past two starts. He’ll make at least one and potentially two starts during the World Series.
Bieber is unlikely to return to the Cy Young heights he reached in 2020, but he looks like a high-end #3 arm. While the ill-timed surgery has prevented him from racking up many innings over the past two seasons, some teams will probably view that at as a standalone injury which is now behind him. He will hit free agency without draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
- Zac Gallen (30)
Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures. The Diamondbacks are expected to make him a qualifying offer.
- Lucas Giolito (30)
Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.
A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.
Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. He’s a borderline QO candidate.
- Michael King (31)
King will decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres. He’ll be paid a $3.75MM buyout and become a free agent. A few months ago, he looked like he’d find a nine-figure deal. That’s tougher to envision after injuries interrupted what had been an excellent start to his walk year.
The righty began his season with a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts. He went on the injured list at the end of May with what the team initially viewed as a minor shoulder injury. That turned out to be far more of a hindrance than expected. It turned out to be a nerve issue that cost him three months. He came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.
King was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start a must-win Game 3 of their Wild Card Series while keeping King in the bullpen. Darvish gave up two runs in one inning to take the loss. King tossed a scoreless inning of relief, striking out three of four batters in his only playoff action. It now remains to be seen if teams are willing to chance a four- or five-year contract on a pitcher who looked like a high-end #2 starter a few months ago. A two-year deal with an opt-out isn’t out of the question.
- Brandon Woodruff (33)
On talent alone, Woodruff belongs in the first tier. Teams that are only concerned with chasing short-term upside could have him alongside Valdez as the two best pitchers in the class. Woodruff isn’t going to command the same long-term contract because of his age and durability questions.
Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. His 93 MPH average fastball is down nearly three ticks from his pre-surgery level, which is an obvious concern, but that didn’t prevent him from dominating before the lat strain. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters and Woodruff has that kind of ceiling.
The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.
Rays Promote Hamilton Marx To Assistant GM
The Rays promoted Hamilton Marx to assistant general manager, writes Adam Berry of MLB.com. Marx is entering his 12th season in the organization and spent this past season as the club’s vice president of baseball process/strategy. He’d previously held the title of director of baseball operations.
Marx, 39, assumes the AGM role vacated when Carlos Rodriguez stepped down earlier this month. Rodriguez had previously run the team’s international scouting department. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times writes that Marx, who has a scouting background, will now be in charge of both the domestic and international amateur scouting operations. That’s on top of his previous responsibilities, which included arbitration and contract work.
The Rays have had four assistant GMs for the last two seasons. Marx joins Chanda Lawdermilk, Will Cousins and Kevin Ibach in that role. The Rays have a number of assistant GMs without actually having a general manager. They never filled that position after Peter Bendix departed to become president of baseball operations in Miami. The Rays’ front office is led by baseball ops president Erik Neander, who’ll continue in the role he has had for a decade under new owner Patrick Zalupski.
Twins Narrow Managerial Search To Top Four Candidates
The Twins seem to have winnowed down their candidates for manager to a group of four. Dan Hayes and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic report that they’re still considering Derek Shelton, James Rowson, Ryan Flaherty, and Scott Servais. While Hayes and Ghiroli leave open the possibility the Twins could broaden the field, that seems to be a long shot.
All four of those coaches had been tied to the Twins’ search, though it hadn’t been previously reported that Servais and Flaherty had formally interviewed. Shelton and Servais have previous MLB managerial experience. Shelton led the Pirates for five-plus seasons. Pittsburgh never won more than 76 games and posted a 41% win percentage over his tenure. Shelton wasn’t working with the most talented rosters, of course, but the Bucs fired him in May after beginning this past season with a 12-26 record. They went 59-65 under Don Kelly the rest of the way.
Before moving to Pittsburgh, Shelton spent two seasons as Minnesota’s bench coach under Paul Molitor and Rocco Baldelli. The Twins interviewed him during the 2018 process that led to the Baldelli hiring. Rowson, who was Minnesota’s hitting coach at the time, also interviewed in 2018. He spent one season on Baldelli’s staff before departing to become bench coach in Miami. He also spent a season in Detroit and has worked as the Yankees’ hitting coach for the last two years. Hayes and Ghiroli write that Shelton and Rowson could be the frontrunners because of their previous ties to the Minnesota organization.
Servais managed the Mariners for parts of nine seasons. Seattle won 51.4% of their games and had five seasons with at least 86 wins during his tenure. The M’s stalled out in the second half of the ’24 campaign, leading them to fire Servais and hire Dan Wilson that August. The Mariners advanced to the ALCS in Wilson’s first full season at the helm. Servais worked as a special assistant for the Padres this year and has also gotten attention from the Orioles for their managerial opening.
Flaherty has worked as Craig Counsell’s bench coach with the Cubs for the last two years. He has also been mentioned as a candidate for the Baltimore and San Diego openings. Royals’ third base coach Vance Wilson, Red Sox’s bench coach Ramón Vázquez, and Padres’ coach Nick Punto had interviewed with the Twins but are now out of the running.
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
The first year of Buster Posey's front office tenure saw the Giants add a pair of stars. The end result was the same league average record that defined the Farhan Zaidi era. That spurred a bold change in the dugout. The Giants fired three-time Manager of the Year Bob Melvin while turning to the college ranks with a splash hire of former University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Rafael Devers, DH: $238.5MM through 2033
- Willy Adames, SS: $150MM through 2031
- Matt Chapman, 3B: $125MM through 2030
- Jung Hoo Lee, CF: $85MM through 2029 (can opt out after '27)
- Logan Webb, RHP: $70MM through 2028
- Robbie Ray, LHP: $25MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Team holds $4MM option on C Tom Murphy ($250K buyout)
2026 guaranteed contracts: $132.75MM
Total future commitments: $693.75MM through 2033
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
- Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
- Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
- Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Brubaker, Knizner, Lucchesi
Free Agents
After a few years of coming up empty on star pursuits, the Giants landed two impact hitters within the first nine months of Buster Posey's tenure atop baseball operations. They signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal that represented the largest in franchise history. They made an even bigger commitment when they pulled off the Rafael Devers blockbuster in June. The Giants took on more than $240MM on Devers' contract over eight and a half seasons.
While the moves added much needed star talent to the San Francisco lineup, they didn't push the team to a playoff berth. On the heels of another .500 finish, they're now emphasizing a deeper pitching staff. "I think our focus is going to be on pitching, to try to fortify our starting staff. The same goes with the bullpen," Posey told Alex Pavlovic and Laura Britt of NBC Sports Bay Area. "I believe that pitching and defense wins, so that's where we'll probably start looking this offseason when free agency does happen."
That won't happen for another week or two, but the Giants didn't waste any time making significant changes. They fired manager Bob Melvin the day after the end of the regular season. A few weeks later, they zeroed in on Tony Vitello as their hire. There isn't any precedent for a top-tier college baseball coach jumping directly into MLB managing without any coaching or front office experience in pro ball.
There have been a few instances of teams poaching college pitching coaches. There are also examples of the "college to professional head coach" move in the NFL, NHL and NBA. Vitello will be the first test case in Major League Baseball. It remains to be seen how much of Melvin's staff will be retained. Bench coach Ryan Christenson and third base coach Matt Williams were out as soon as Melvin was dismissed.
The front office's focus now turns to the roster. They should have a good amount of payroll space with which to work. They have $132.75MM in guaranteed commitments for six highly-priced players. It's one of the game's lightest arbitration classes, though, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting the group for a little over $10MM. Non-tenders of JT Brubaker, Joey Lucchesi and Andrew Knizner would drop that below $5MM, as Patrick Bailey and Ryan Walker are their only two locks to be offered contracts.
That'd put their Opening Day payroll projection in the $150-155MM range if they filled the rest of the roster with minimum salaried players. RosterResource estimates their luxury tax number around $174MM, which is $70MM below the base threshold. The Giants ducked the luxury tax this year but had exceeded the threshold as recently as 2024. Even if they're not willing to go all the way to $244MM, they should be able to make multiple notable additions.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well! Looking forward to another of these
- Busy week for us with offseason prep so I'm going to keep this one at an hour. Let's get going
Bo nose
- I sure hope Bichette's addition to the Jays' roster is not a sentimental move nor one anticipating contributions defensively. Ordinarily a plus bat, the area where, arguably, the Blue Jays are strongest as a team right now, he has been feeble against L.A. over the past two years. That's only six games but, combined with the lay-off, is his best usage more likely to be as a super-sub PH than in any starting defender capacity? I think the noise about using him at 2nd is just that, noise.
Duffy Scliff
- Does Toronto realistically have a shot in this series? Does the fact that LAD hasn’t played in awhile hurt them?
Anthony Franco
- Dodgers are favorites but it's like 55-45, they've definitely got a shot. L.A.'s bullpen still feels like a weakness and the Jays should put up a much better fight against the rotation than Milwaukee did
- We'll see on Bo. Obviously if he can move at all, then playing him at second would be ideal. Use Clement at third with Barger in RF and IKF as a defensive sub late in games. If he's so hobbled that he can't field a ground-ball, well he's at least a better pinch-hitting option than Loperfido would've been
Hopeful Halo
- What do you think the angels chances are to land a top starter like Valdez?
Anthony Franco
- Would be out of character for Moreno and they've got so many other needs that I don't think using most of the budget on one top starter would be the wisest choice anyway
- I could see them more in on Gallen or a boring innings eater like Littell. They'll need to spend something on a center fielder and a third baseman and should at least bring Kenley back to solidify the back of the bullpen
Japanese Players
- Who do you think gets the highest contract for Japanese pitchers coming over this year? Imai seems to be the one getting most of the conversation now. I do wonder if he might be getting a little to hyped now? It does seem sometimes we get hyped for a player and they struggle coming over.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah it'll be Imai. He's a bit of split camp guy but I'd be surprised if he signs for less than $130M
- I think the recent track record for the top NPB starters is pretty good actually. Yamamoto's phenomenal. Tanaka worked out really well, Imanaga was excellent value at 4/53. Jury's still out on Sasaki but for even if he's only a late-inning reliever, that's well worth what the Dodgers paid with the hard capped bonuses
Rangers13
- How much do you expect Okamoto to cost?
Anthony Franco
- We all landed at three years and between $33-45MM but there's a really wide error bar on the predictions for players (especially hitters) coming over from foreign leagues
- Seems like he's at least equally interesting as Jeimer Candelario or Jurickson Profar were though
Ding a ling
- Has Dillon Dingler really changed his hit tool? Both FanGraphs and MLB gave him a 30 as a prospect, but this past season, he hit for a respectable average. Who's the real Dillon Dingler?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah definitely think he's better than a 30 hit tool. Big step forward in his in-zone contact rate, fewer chases. Hits the ball hard enough to post decent results on balls in play, even if he's probably not turning in a .345 BABIP every year
- Feels like a 50 hitter with average pop who plays really strong defense behind the plate. Good player
Mike Yastrzemski
- Please find me a home?
Anthony Franco
- I fully expect the Royals to bring him back on a one-year deal for $10-12M. He hit well there and it's obviously an ongoing need
- If they go elsewhere, Philly, Pittsburgh or Cleveland would work. Wouldn't pick the Giants to do it after they traded him but it's not like Luis Matos/Drew Gilbert seized the RF job. If they focus most of their resources on the rotation and Yaz is out for $8M in February, I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to circle back
Arthur Dent
- Any chance the Guardians will entertain offers in Steven Kwan? If so, what would Cleveland be looking for in return?
-
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
BENEFITS- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels pushed MLB's longest active playoff drought to 11 seasons. They've lost at least 89 games in four consecutive years. While general manager Perry Minasian will get a sixth season, there's another change in the dugout. Kurt Suzuki has a difficult task ahead of his first year as an MLB manager.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mike Trout, RF: $177.25MM through 2030
- Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: $42MM through 2027
- Anthony Rendon, 3B: $38MM through 2026
- Jorge Soler, DH: $13MM through 2026
- Robert Stephenson, RHP: $11MM through 2026 (deal includes $2.5MM club option for '27)
- Travis d'Arnaud, C: $6MM through 2026
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe $2MM buyout to outrighted 1B Evan White
- Owe $250K buyout to released IF Kevin Newman
2026 guaranteed contracts: $126.5MM
Total future commitments: $289.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
- Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
- Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
- Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
- José Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
- Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
- Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM
Free Agents
- Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, Yoán Moncada, Kenley Jansen, Luis García, José Ureña, Andrew Chafin, Hunter Strickland, Chris Taylor
The Angels are in an all too familiar position. They've shown no appetite for a rebuild without having the kind of depth on the MLB roster to compete over a 162-game schedule. They outperformed their run differential in the first half of this past season, allowing them to essentially sit on their hands at the trade deadline. Then they went 19-34 over the final two months -- a record better only than the Rockies and Twins -- to lose 90 games yet again.
GM Perry Minasian gets another opportunity to turn things around. He's going into the final guaranteed season of his contract. He has yet to win more than 77 games. The Angels' issues predate Minasian's hiring and can be laid largely at the feet of owner Arte Moreno, but the front office is surely under some pressure to get better results. The Angels opted not to bring back Ron Washington or interim skipper Ray Montgomery, so they're now on the fourth full-time manager of the Minasian era.
That'll be Kurt Suzuki, a first-time manager with no MLB coaching experience. Sam Blum of The Athletic reports that it's a one-year contract, an atypically short commitment to any manager. Suzuki was highly respected as a longtime big league catcher and has spent the past three seasons working as a special assistant in the Angels' front office. While the jury is out on that hiring, the search process didn't exactly point to the organization having a coherent plan.
As recently as two weeks ago, it looked like Albert Pujols would be the choice. The future Hall of Famer seemed to be Moreno's preferred candidate. Last week, The Athletic's Sam Blum reported that the team had reversed course and would at least interview Suzuki and Torii Hunter as well. Pujols was out a few days later. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that disagreements regarding the coaching staff and compensation were among the reasons the Pujols talks fell apart. Blum wrote that it was mostly a contractual dispute.
The Angels owe Pujols $1MM annually for the next seven seasons as part of the personal services contract that he signed when he retired as a player. It's unclear if the Angels hoped to incorporate that into Pujols' managerial salaries. In any case, it's not a great look for the organization that they were unwilling to meet the asking price of the person they considered the best candidate available. Pujols' salary demands aren't known, but even the most successful managers in MLB make around $8MM annually. That's barely more than the Angels are paying backup catcher Travis d'Arnaud.
None of that is meant as a slight at Suzuki. It's certainly not a given that Pujols would have been a better hire. Yet it's the latest example of Moreno valuing marginal short-term savings over what he ostensibly believed would have been the best choice for the team. That probably doesn't bode well for the more significant roster shakeup that should be in the cards.
Suzuki will have his work cut out for him with what is likely to remain one of the league's weakest rosters. The Angels have questions behind the plate, at both second and third base, and in center field. They have at most two reliable starting pitchers, neither of whom fit at the top of a rotation. Building Reid Detmers back up gives them another potential mid-rotation arm but leaves them with arguably one dependable reliever (Brock Burke). Minasian told Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register and other reporters earlier this month that Detmers "earned" another look as a starter and is expected to be in the Opening Day rotation.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
A’s Could Explore Second/Third Base Markets
The A’s have around two-thirds of their starting lineup in place going into the offseason. While starting pitching should be the primary focus, they have some questions on the infield that may need to be addressed externally.
Second baseman Zack Gelof underwent surgery after dislocating his left shoulder with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the team announced last week that third baseman Brett Harris underwent surgery to repair the UCL in his left thumb (link via Jason Burke of Sports Illustrated). The injuries cloud what were already the two weakest positions in the lineup heading into the winter.
Martín Gallegos of MLB.com writes that Harris is expected to be ready for Spring Training. General manager David Forst was noncommittal about Gelof’s timeline, telling Gallegos that they’ll need to “wait further in the offseason to know exactly what [that] is.” It doesn’t appear that Gelof is locked into the starting second base job even once he’s healthy. Forst told Gallegos that the A’s will “be open to a lot of possibilities” at each of second and third base.
That presumably includes looking outside the organization. The A’s don’t have great internal options at either spot. Darell Hernaiz got some late-season run at all three infield positions to the left of first base (including everyday shortstop work while Jacob Wilson was out with a broken arm). Hernaiz put a lot of balls in play but didn’t hit the ball hard enough to make an impact, batting .231/.292/.306 across 197 plate appearances.
[Related: A’s Offseason Outlook]
Former first-round pick Max Muncy had a tough rookie season, hitting .214/.259/.379 over 220 trips to the plate. He struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances and lost most of the second half to a broken hand. The 27-year-old Harris got regular third base reps over the final six weeks of the season. He hit .274 with a .349 on-base percentage but didn’t connect on a home run in 32 games. Max Schuemann is the only other utility infielder on the 40-man roster. He’s coming off a .197/.295/.273 showing and isn’t guaranteed to hold his roster spot all winter.
Gelof has shown the most promise of that group. The former second-round pick hit 14 homers with a .267/.337/.504 slash line over 69 games as a rookie in 2023. He has followed that up with consecutive tough years. Gelof led the American League with 188 strikeouts in ’24, causing his average (.211) and on-base percentage (.270) to plummet.
Injuries limited him to 30 MLB games this past season. He sustained a wrist fracture on a Spring Training hit-by-pitch and underwent hamate surgery. A stress reaction in his ribs set him back when he was on a rehab assignment six weeks later. Gelof didn’t make his season debut until July 4. The A’s optioned him to Triple-A a week later and kept him in the minors until late August. He got a few weeks of run before suffering the dislocated shoulder. While the stop and start nature of his season didn’t do him any favors, Gelof’s contact issues worsened. He struck out 46 times in 101 plate appearances while whiffing on more than 40% of his swings.
Top prospect Leo De Vries, the centerpiece of the Mason Miller return, may be the long-term answer at second base. De Vries has come up as a shortstop but could eventually move to the other side of the bag to play alongside Wilson in the middle infield. He’s coming off a .255/.355/.451 showing as an 18-year-old between High-A and Double-A. De Vries has a chance to get to the big leagues next year, but it’s hard to imagine the A’s would carry him on the Opening Day roster. He only has 21 games at Double-A and has no Triple-A experience. A second half debut is more reasonable and would still be remarkable for a player who turned 19 two weeks ago.
The A’s will want to keep one long-term infield spot available for De Vries. Their needs at second and third base mean they could pursue a controllable infielder at one spot while looking for a stopgap at the other. Brendan Donovan and Ozzie Albies each have two years of club control remaining and could be available on the trade market. Josh Jung and Alec Bohm are change-of-scenery candidates at third base. Jung has three years of remaining control and is projected at a $2.9MM salary, though it’s possible the Rangers would prefer to trade him outside the division. Bohm is projected for a salary in the $10MM range for his last arbitration season.
This isn’t a great class for free agent infielders. The A’s obviously aren’t signing Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman. Each of Jorge Polanco, Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim (if he opts out) could be available for two or three years, but they’re all going to command eight-figure salaries on an annual basis. Willi Castro, Yoán Moncada, Luis Rengifo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be available on one-year or cheap two-year deals at most. Signing someone from that group would aim a little higher than last winter’s deals with Luis Urías and Gio Urshela but would be broadly similar pickups.
Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers
The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.
If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.
Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.
No-Doubters
- Dylan Cease (Padres)
- Edwin Díaz (Mets)
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies)
- Framber Valdez (Astros)
This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.
Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.
Likely Recipients
- Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
- Michael King (Padres)
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers)
All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.
King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.
Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.
Borderline Calls
- Jack Flaherty (Tigers)
Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.
The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).
- Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)
Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.
A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.
Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. Whether to make the QO will come down to Boston’s risk tolerance on the elbow.
The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.
- Shota Imanaga (Cubs)
Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.
The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.
That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons. How much has the final six weeks soured the Cubs on his future projection?
Unlikely/Long Shots
- Brad Keller (Cubs)
- Tyler Mahle (Rangers)
- Robert Suarez (Padres)
- Luke Weaver (Yankees)
- Devin Williams (Yankees)
This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.
Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.
Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.
Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.
Ineligible
- Chris Bassitt
- Shane Bieber
- Raisel Iglesias
- Merrill Kelly
- Zack Littell
- Nick Martinez
- Justin Verlander
Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.