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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | December 27, 2024 at 12:23pm CDT

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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Gary Sutherland Passes Away

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2024 at 10:28pm CDT

Former major league infielder Gary Sutherland passed away on December 16 at age 80. His obituary was provided by a Monrovia, California funeral home.

Sutherland was an L.A.-area native who attended USC. He signed with the Phillies out of college. The right-handed infielder debuted during his age-21 season. He appeared in parts of three seasons for Philadelphia. The Phils lost him to the Expos in the 1968 expansion draft. Sutherland was the everyday second baseman on the inaugural Montreal team. He played three years for the Expos, hitting .234/.287/.299 over 368 games.

Montreal dealt Sutherland to the Astros after the ’71 season. He barely played over two years in Houston before he was on the move again. The Tigers acquired him during the 1973-74 offseason. Sutherland took a career-high 672 plate appearances during his first season in Detroit. He hit 20 doubles with a .254/.282/.313 showing. He played three years in Detroit. Sutherland finished his playing career with brief stints between Milwaukee, San Diego and St. Louis.

Over a 13-year playing career, Sutherland picked up 754 hits with a .243/.291/.308 batting line. He appeared in more than 1000 major league games between seven teams. Sutherland remained in the game after his playing days as a scout and worked as a special assistant in the Angels’ front office into the 2010s. MLBTR sends condolences to his family, loved ones and friends.

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Detroit Tigers Obituaries

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Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2024 at 9:41pm CDT

Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.

Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.

Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.

It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.

Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.

The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.

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Newsstand San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Corbin Burnes

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Yankees Showing Interest In Andrew Chafin

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2024 at 7:22pm CDT

The Yankees have interest in Andrew Chafin, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. New York is looking for a left-handed bullpen arm. Heyman reported earlier this week that a reunion with Tim Hill was also a possibility.

Both players are natural targets for a team that doesn’t have a single left-hander in its projected bullpen. The Yankees only have two left-handed pitchers on their 40-man roster: Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. New York has yet to add an experienced southpaw on a minor league contract either, so they’ll probably look for multiple lefties over the coming weeks.

Chafin, 34, has been a durable and generally reliable middle innings arm for a decade. He’s coming off another decent season, turning in a 3.51 earned run average across 56 1/3 innings between the Tigers and Rangers. Most of the positives came during his first few months in Detroit, however. Chafin carried a 3.16 ERA with a near-31% strikeout rate into late July. Things went downhill after a deadline deal sending him to Texas. He allowed a 4.19 ERA with the Rangers. His strikeout rate fell to 24% while his walk percentage nearly doubled to an untenable 17.9% clip.

While it wasn’t a great finish, Chafin has an extended track record. Despite middling velocity, he has fanned around 28% of batters faced in three straight years. He missed bats on a huge 15.4% of his pitches this year — the second-highest rate of his career. Chafin has walked more than 12% of opponents in consecutive seasons, reflecting command that comes and goes. He can handle hitters of either handedness, though, so he shouldn’t have an issue finding another big league contract. Chafin has been a bullpen workhorse, topping 50 innings in seven of the last eight full seasons. (He threw 49 1/3 frames in 2018.) His only injured list stint in the last four years was a two-week stay in April ’22 for a groin strain.

Chafin has signed one-year contracts — respectively valued at $6.25MM and $4.75MM — in the last two winters. Texas declined a $6.5MM club option at the beginning of the offseason. Chafin will be limited to one year and could land a base salary in the $3-5MM range.

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New York Yankees Andrew Chafin

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Phillies, Payton Henry Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2024 at 6:41pm CDT

The Phillies and catcher Payton Henry agreed to a minor league contract earlier this month, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Henry confirmed the deal on social media.

Henry, 27, appeared in the majors with the Marlins between 2021-22. He suited up in 20 games, hitting .186 with one extra-base hit (a double) through 51 trips to the plate. The former sixth-round draftee has spent the past two seasons in Triple-A. He played 2023 in the Milwaukee system and spent this year with the Toronto organization.

The righty-hitting Henry was limited to 27 games with Triple-A Buffalo this past season. He was injured in a frightening play on May 31. Henry was catching when an opposing hitter accidentally struck him on the head with a backswing. Henry was removed on a cart and transported to a Syracuse, New York, hospital. The game was cancelled at that point. Fortunately, Henry was released the following day.

After a three-month stay on the injured list, he returned to action with the Bisons in the middle of September. He played in three games to finish the season. While he didn’t have time to put himself in position for an MLB call, getting back on the field checks a significant box going into Spring Training.

Henry is likely to open next season in Triple-A, where he’s now a career .266/.332/.414 hitter. Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán are each on the 40-man roster and potential backups behind J.T. Realmuto. They’ll remain ahead of Henry and Paul McIntosh, whom the Phils acquired over the weekend in the Jesús Luzardo trade, on the depth chart.

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Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Payton Henry

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NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters Re-Sign Drew VerHagen

By Anthony Franco | December 26, 2024 at 4:39pm CDT

The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan announced yesterday that they’re bringing back righty Drew VerHagen on a one-year deal. The Vayner Sports client first joined the Fighters on a one-year contract with a 2025 player option last winter. While it seems he explored free agent possibilities in lieu of the player option, he elected to return to Hokkaido all the same.

VerHagen divided the ’24 season between the Fighters and their minor league affiliate. He posted similarly solid numbers at both stops. The 34-year-old tossed 49 innings of 3.12 ERA ball at Japan’s top level and managed a 3.06 mark across 47 minor league frames. He fanned a slightly above-average 20.6% of NPB opponents against a 5% walk rate.

That was VerHagen’s third season with the Fighters overall. He pitched for the team between 2020-21 and now carries a 3.44 earned run average in 256 2/3 NPB innings. Around the separate stints in Japan, he has appeared in parts of eight MLB campaigns. VerHagen worked as long reliever for the Tigers between 2014-19. He returned to the majors in 2022 for a two-season run with the Cardinals. After posting a 6.65 ERA during his first year in St. Louis, he rebounded with a 3.98 mark across a career-high 61 innings in 2023.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Transactions Drew VerHagen

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A’s Sign Gio Urshela

By Anthony Franco | December 22, 2024 at 11:02am CDT

The Athletics announced a one-year contract with infielder Gio Urshela. The Rep 1 Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $2.15MM and can earn another $450K in incentives. He’d unlock $100K apiece at 300, 350, 400 and 450 plate appearances and receive another $50K for his 500th trip to the plate.

Urshela could get first crack at the third base job. A’s general manager David Forst has said on a few occasions that the front office was looking for answers at the hot corner. They explored at least one trade possibility, touching base with the Phillies regarding Alec Bohm, but balked at Philadelphia’s reported ask for star closer Mason Miller.

The free agent options at the position were limited. Alex Bregman is the only clear regular. He’d almost certainly be outside the club’s price range even if he were willing to play in Sacramento for the next three seasons. It’s not clear if Gleyber Torres is willing to sign as a third baseman. Yoán Moncada, Josh Rojas, Jorge Polanco and Urshela were among the rebound candidates who could be had for an affordable one-year deal.

Urshela, 33, is coming off a second consecutive middling season. He split the year between the Tigers and Braves. He combined for 461 plate appearances and hit .250/.286/.361 with nine home runs. Urshela’s plus contact skills remain intact, but his power has dropped off sharply in recent years. His slugging percentage has trended down in two straight seasons. The veteran has never taken many walks, so the dip in power leaves him with something of an empty batting average. Since the start of 2023, the righty-hitting infielder carries a .266/.300/.365 line with 11 longballs in nearly 700 trips to the plate.

While the bat has tailed off, Urshela remains a capable defender. Defensive Runs Saved gave him exactly league average marks in a little over 900 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average. Although DRS has historically taken a more favorable view of Urshela’s glove than Statcast has, both metrics feel he’s been a little bit above par over the past two seasons.

Assuming Urshela cracks the big league roster, the A’s could deploy him at either corner infield position. Third base remains his primary spot, but he has topped 100 innings at first base in each of the last two years. Tyler Soderstrom should get the majority of the playing time there. Urshela could move across the diamond against left-handed pitching if the A’s want to shield Soderstrom from unfavorable platoon matchups. That could draw righty Darell Hernaiz into the lineup at third.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the A’s and Urshela had a deal. Martín Gallegos of MLB.com reported the one-year term. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman had the $2.15MM base salary, while The Associated Press reported the incentive specifics.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

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Newsstand Oakland Athletics Transactions Giovanny Urshela

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Cardinals Reportedly Declined Offer Of Marcus Stroman For Nolan Arenado

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 11:52pm CDT

Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals declined an offer from the Yankees that could’ve sent Marcus Stroman to St. Louis for Nolan Arenado, according to a report from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. It’s unknown whether Arenado would have approved that trade. MLB.com reports that the Cardinals never brought it to the star third baseman because they were uninterested in acquiring Stroman.

That’s not to say that talks between the clubs on Arenado are finished. The Yankees still have needs at both corner infield positions. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that they’re showing increased interest in Paul Goldschmidt at first base. They write that signing Goldschmidt might make Arenado more likely to waive his no-trade clause to join his former teammate as a corner infield tandem in the Bronx.

Various reports have tied the Yankees to Goldschmidt throughout this week. It seems they’ll turn to one of the short-term free agent options to upgrade first base. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported on Thursday that the Yankees were increasingly likely to pursue a more affordable first baseman than to spend at the top of the market for Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. Walker, whom the Yankees had reportedly preferred to Alonso, has subsequently come off the board on a $60MM deal to Houston.

Interestingly, Goldschmidt’s asking price could itself prove a sticking point. Most predictions, MLBTR’s included, assumed he’d sign a one-year deal as he enters his age-37 season. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that Goldschmidt is seeking multiple years. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll find a two-year deal, of course, which would be a lofty ask coming off a middling season.

Goldschmidt hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 homers during his final year in St. Louis. He posted career-worst strikeout and walk rates with overall offense that measured exactly league average. Goldschmidt had a better second half after a dismal start to the season, but the overall numbers are worrisome given his age. MLBTR felt he’d secure $15MM on a one-year deal.

Money is also a complicating factor on Arenado. Even if the Yankees signed Goldschmidt and Arenado were willing to play there, they’d still need to find an agreeable return with St. Louis. The Cardinals owe the eight-time All-Star $64MM over the next three seasons, while the Rockies are on the hook for another $10MM between 2025-26. (Colorado’s obligations would carry over in the event of a trade.) $12MM of the Cardinals’ $64MM is deferred. MLB.com writes that the net present value of what St. Louis owes is around $60MM.

The Cardinals are trying to shed at least the vast majority of that deal. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the Astros would’ve absorbed around $45MM had Arenado not vetoed the proposed trade to Houston earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported differently, writing that Houston would have taken $59MM. In either case, the Cardinals would have shed most of the money.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the extent of the Yankees’ interest in Arenado depends on how much of the deal the Cardinals would cover. While it’s not known how much the Yankees want St. Louis to eat, their proposal of Stroman would’ve been a financial counterbalance. The righty will make $18MM next season and would trigger a matching player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings. An Arenado/Stroman swap would’ve gotten the Cardinals off the hook for the former’s salaries in 2026-27, but it would not have represented a significant cut next season.

Arenado has a $32MM salary next year, $5MM of which is Colorado’s responsibility. Another $6MM is deferred, so the immediate savings for St. Louis would only have been $3MM. The Cardinals could have tried to flip Stroman themselves. The righty is coming off a 4.31 ERA over 154 2/3 innings. His salary is above market but not egregiously so, but it doesn’t seem the Cardinals had any interest in that sequence of moves.

A player’s competitive balance tax number resets if they’re traded. Assuming the NPV on Arenado’s contract is around three years and $60MM, he’d carry an approximate $20MM luxury tax hit for an acquiring team if the Cardinals did not eat any money. RosterResource calculates New York’s luxury tax number around $287MM. Signing Goldschmidt or taking most of Arenado’s contract would push them beyond the $301MM final tax tier. Doing both would vault them well beyond $301MM, which comes with a 110% tax on every dollar spent from that point.

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New York Yankees Newsstand St. Louis Cardinals Marcus Stroman Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt

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Yankees, Reds Swap Jose Trevino For Fernando Cruz

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 9:34pm CDT

The Yankees and Reds finalized a trade on Friday night that sends catcher Jose Trevino to Cincinnati for reliever Fernando Cruz and non-roster catcher Alex Jackson.

Trevino is on the move for the second time in his career. The Yankees landed him from the Rangers shortly after Opening Day 2022 in a deal that sent reliever Albert Abreu to Arlington. That was a win for the New York front office, as Trevino developed into a quality defensive catcher in the Bronx. Abreu, on the other hand, pitched seven times with the Rangers before they lost him on waivers.

The 2022 season has been Trevino’s best. He appeared in a career-high 115 games, hitting .248/.283/.388 through 353 plate appearances. Trevino led all catchers with 21 Defensive Runs Saved that season, earning an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove.

Trevino has opened each of the past two years as New York’s primary catcher. His playing time and offensive production have dropped, though he continues to grade very highly for his receiving skills. Trevino has only appeared in 129 games over the past two years. In 2023, that was largely the result of a ligament tear in his right wrist that necessitated season-ending surgery in July.

The 32-year-old stayed mostly heathy this past season. He missed a month between the All-Star Break and the middle of August because of a quad strain. Trevino was otherwise on the active roster but fell into a depth role. Rookie of the Year finalist Austin Wells is a superior offensive player who grades as an elite receiving catcher in his own right.

Trevino was limited to 62 starts behind the plate overall. He’d basically become a non-factor by the end of the year, as he appeared in just 14 games between his return from the injured list on August 15 and the end of the regular season. He only got two starts during the Yankees’ run to the World Series. He took 234 trips to the plate and hit .215/.288/.354 with eight home runs.

Part of the dip in playing time has been attributable to Trevino’s difficulty controlling the running game. According to Statcast, only Yasmani Grandal had a higher average pop time (throw time to second base on stolen base attempts) than Trevino’s 2.07 second mark. Opponents swiped 57 bases out of 70 attempts in his 544 1/3 innings. Trevino continues to grade exceptionally highly for his framing skills and blocking ability, so he remains a valuable defender, but the subpar arm strength has become an issue.

The Reds evidently placed a lot of value on those receiving skills. Trevino should back up Tyler Stephenson, who hit .258/.338/.444 with a career-high 19 homers this past season. Stephenson started 112 games and tallied a little more than 1000 innings. He didn’t play any first base in ’24 but has played there sporadically in prior seasons. Cincinnati could give Stephenson a few more modified rest days at first base or designated hitter if they’re comfortable with Trevino logging 70+ starts behind the dish.

Trevino has over five years of service time. MLTBR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.4MM salary during his last trip through the arbitration process. Taking that on pushes the team’s projected payroll to $104MM (courtesy of RosterResource). The Reds ended the ’23 campaign with a payroll around $100MM and have indicated they’re comfortable matching or exceeding that number.

Stephenson had been the only catcher on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster. They obviously needed to acquire a veteran backup, but it’s still surprising to see the Reds relinquish Cruz for one year of Trevino’s services. Cruz has been a fixture in Cincinnati’s bullpen for the last two years. He has scattershot command but elite bat-missing ability.

Cruz, a native of Puerto Rico, was drafted as an infielder back in 2007. He flamed out as a hitter and was out of affiliated ball entirely between 2016-21. Cruz converted to pitching in 2012 and continued to plug away, however, eventually catching the attention of Reds’ scouts in the independent ranks. He dominated Triple-A opponents in 2022 and earned his first major league call as a 32-year-old that September.

Typically, players who don’t reach the majors until they’re in their 30s are quickly dropped from the roster. Cruz pitched well in his late-season cameo, however, and the Reds kept him on their 40-man. He has topped 65 innings in each of the past two seasons, building from middle relief in 2023 to become one of David Bell’s more frequent leverage options in front of closer Alexis Díaz.

The bottom line results have not been great. Cruz has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both seasons. He owns a 4.52 ERA across 147 1/3 career innings. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA find him significantly more interesting than the actual run prevention would suggest — a testament to his gaudy swing-and-miss numbers.

Cruz has fanned over 35% of opponents in each of the last two seasons. He carries a cumulative 36.5% strikeout rate over that stretch. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman have posted a better mark. Spencer Strider, Kirby Yates, Garrett Crochet, Jeff Hoffman, Bryan Abreu, Paul Skenes and Tyler Glasnow round out the top 10. Cruz is similarly dominant on a per-pitch basis. His 16.7% swinging strike rate ranks fifth among that group — trailing Strider, Hader, Andrés Muñoz and Ryan Helsley.

Pitching isn’t solely about strikeouts, of course, but most pitchers who miss bats at those rates are impact arms. Cruz holds himself back to some extent by issuing too many free passes. He walked 12.2% of batters faced this year and has given out free passes to 11.4% of opponents in his career. That’s a concern, but it’s easy to see why the Yankees identified him as an upside play.

Cruz’s calling card is a low-80s splitter, which is one of the most effective pitches in the sport. Cruz used the offering a little more than 40% of the time this year. Opponents only made contact around 40% of the time they swung at it. Batters hit .116 against it. Cruz used it as the finishing pitch for 88 of his 109 strikeouts.

Exceptional as the splitter was, opponents teed off on his other two offerings — a 94 MPH four-seam fastball and a cutter that sits in the high 80s. Cruz has preferred to mix all three pitches rather than fully unleashing the splitter. Whether that’s because of his own comfort or the preference of Cincinnati’s coaching staff isn’t clear, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Yankees pushed him to lean more frequently on that pitch. New York allowed Tommy Kahnle to abandon his fastball and throw essentially all changeups for his entire playoff run, for instance.

Cruz has just over two years of big league service. He’s under club control for four seasons. The extended control window isn’t a huge factor for a pitcher who’ll turn 35 in March. It’s a boost in the short term, though, as the Yankees can plug him into the bullpen for around the league minimum salary in 2025.

Jackson, who turns 29 on Christmas, rounds out the return to backfill the catching depth. He signed a minor league contract with Cincinnati last month and will not occupy a 40-man roster spot. Jackson appeared in a career-high 58 games for the Rays last season, hitting .122 over 159 plate appearances. He’s a career .132/.224/.232 hitter over parts of five campaigns. Jackson should get a Spring Training invite, where he can compete with 29-year-old J.C. Escarra — who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t appeared in the majors — for the backup job behind Wells.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Trevino was being traded to Cincinnati. The Post’s Joel Sherman was first with the entire trade. Images courtesy of Imagn.

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Cincinnati Reds New York Yankees Newsstand Transactions Alex Jackson Fernando Cruz Jose Trevino

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Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2024 at 8:24pm CDT

Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

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