Free Agent Faceoff: Saunders vs. Blanton
MLBTradeRumors is introducing a new series in which two comparable free agents are analyzed side by side. Each post will conclude with a reader vote on the value of the two players.
Joe Saunders and Joe Blanton have a lot in common. They have both evolved into steady if unspectacular starters since being selected in the first round of the 2002 draft. Both of the 6’3” 31-year-olds were traded in waiver deals this past August. They even share a first name. Let’s move past the similarities and determine which free agent should appeal to teams more in the coming offseason, when both Saunders and Blanton will be eligible for free agency.
Saunders has averaged 175 innings over the course of the past five seasons and, unlike Blanton, hasn't missed significant time due to injuries in recent years. He’s six months younger than Blanton and he’s left-handed. Saunders also has the edge in career ERA (4.15 vs. 4.37). While Saunders has consistently kept his ERA below 4.50, Blanton hasn't posted an ERA below 4.50 since 2009. Let's not forget Saunders' two strong postseason starts against the elite offenses of the Rangers and Yankees this month.
Though Blanton missed much of the 2011 season, he pitched 191 innings this past season, and has completed at least 175 innings in seven of eight full years as an MLB player. He’s been every bit as durable as Saunders. Furthermore, he strikes out more hitters and does a better job at limiting walks. Blanton also throws harder than Saunders (90.4 mph) and generates more swings and misses (9.6% swinging strike rate). The right-hander’s ERA has been a little high in recent years, but once we look a little deeper, we’ll see he has produced more wins above replacement in his career, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference (Blanton has been worth 20.4 WAR to Saunders' 12.0, per FanGraphs). And though he didn’t pitch in the 2012 playoffs, Blanton has 40 solid postseason innings to his name.
Both pitchers have a case for a multiyear deal this offseason, when many teams will be looking for rotation help. Which begs the question…
Which pitcher would you rather have on your team?
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Joe Saunders 76% (5,898)
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Joe Blanton 24% (1,876)
Total votes: 7,774
White Sox Promote Williams; Hahn To Be GM
9:07am: The White Sox announced the promotions, naming Williams executive VP and naming Hahn senior VP and general manager. Williams will "maintain oversight and final approval on major baseball decisions,” White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said.
8:14am: The White Sox will announce today that they've promoted their top two baseball executives, according to Mark Gonzales of Chicago Tribune. Kenny Williams will now oversee the baseball operations department and Rick Hahn will take over Williams' duties as general manager. The long-anticipated transition will be announced at a news conference today.
Williams, 48, has been Chicago's GM since the end of the 2000 season. He is the sixth longest tenured general manager in baseball, behind only Terry Ryan (Twins) Brian Sabean (Giants), Billy Beane (Athletics), Brian Cashman (Yankees) and Dan O'Dowd (Rockies).The White Sox have reached the playoffs twice under Williams; they won the 2005 World Series and won the AL Central in 2008. Chicago finished the 2012 season in second place with an 85-77 record.
Hahn featured prominently on MLBTR's list of GM candidates last summer. He was considered for general manager jobs last offseason, including one with the Cubs. The 41-year-old has also been linked to general manager jobs with the Pirates, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets and Angels, according to Gonzales.
Outrighted To Triple-A: Berken, Albaladejo, Ransom
We'll keep track of the day's outright assignments right here…
- The Padres outrighted right-hander Thad Weber to Triple-A Tucson, according to Corey Brock of MLB.com (via Twitter). Weber was claimed off of waivers from the Tigers in late August and saw time in two big league games for Detroit in April.
- The Cubs announced that they have outrighted utility man Adrian Cardenas and right-handers Jason Berken, Miguel Socolovich, and Marcos Mateo to Triple-A. Socolovich spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A for the Cubs and Orioles, posting a 2.11 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Berken was also claimed off of waivers from the O's and posted a 3.50 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 26 Triple-A starts.
- The Diamondbacks outrighted Jonathan Albaladejo, Tyler Graham, Mike Jacobs, Joe Martinez, and Cody Ransom to Triple-A Reno, according to the official MLB.com transactions page. Albaladejo spent the 2011 season in Japan and saw just three innings of work for Arizona this year. Jacobs, 31, hit .279/.362/.486 with 18 homers for Triple-A Reno. Ransom was claimed off of waivers mid-season from the Brewers and hit .220/.312/.411 in 90 games.
- The Mariners announced that they outrighted first baseman Luis Jimenez to Triple-A. The 30-year-old appeared in seven games with the Mariners this past September after spending most of the season at Triple-A. Jimenez hit 20 homers with Tacoma, posted a .310/.394/.514 batting line, and was named his team's Offensive Player of the Year. The left-handed hitter can become a minor league free agent five days after the World Series ends. Seattle now has two open spots on its 40-man roster.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Pirates Claim Chad Beck
The Pirates have claimed right-hander Chad Beck off of waivers from the Blue Jays, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports (on Twitter). The Blue Jays had designated Beck for assignment earlier in the week to create 40-man roster space for Bobby Wilson.
Beck joined the Blue Jays organization in 2008 when Toronto acquired him from Arizona for David Eckstein. The 27-year-old appeared in 14 games for the Blue Jays this year after spending most of the season at Triple-A. Beck posted a 1.31 ERA with 4.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 48 innings at Las Vegas in 2012.
Otani, Fujinami Selected In NPB Draft
3:11pm: Otani can sign with an MLB team at any time, an MLB official confirmed to Ben Badler of Baseball America. Signing with an MLB team at this stage would likely irk the Fighters and other Japanese baseball officials, however. If the Fighters sign Otani then attempt to post him, he'd still count against teams' $2.9MM international bonus pools, Badler reports. Fujinami expects to start his professional career in Japan, according to Badler.
8:10am: Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitching prospect who's drawing interest from Major League teams, won't be able to sign with an MLB franchise before April of 2013. As expected, the Nippon Ham Fighters selected the 18-year-old right-hander with the first overall pick in the NPB draft, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker reports (on Twitter).
The Fighters won’t necessarily be able to sign Otani, who has said he intends to pursue a career in MLB. They have until the end of March to agree to terms with the hard-throwing prospect under an agreement between MLB and NPB. If Otani declines to sign with the Fighters, MLB teams will be able to bid on him as a free agent, though they’ll be subject to international spending restrictions.
The Hanshin Tigers selected Shintaro Fujinami, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America (on Twitter). Some scouts prefer Fujinami to Otani, Badler writes.
Tigers Expected To Exercise Peralta’s Option
The Tigers are expected to exercise their 2013 option for Jhonny Peralta following a strong postseason showing from the shortstop, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. The Tigers consider the $6MM option “reasonable,” according to Heyman.
The Tigers would ideally like to have a shortstop with more range than Peralta, especially with Miguel Cabrera beside him at third base. There’s a chance GM Dave Dombrowski could explore deals for shortstops after exercising the option, Heyman reports. Yunel Escobar figures to be available, but he doesn’t appear to interest the Tigers.
Peralta, who homered in Game One of the World Series last night, posted a .239/.305/.384 batting line in 585 plate appearances with Detroit this past year. The Tigers would have to pay the 30-year-old a $500K buyout if they don't exercise his option. Back in September I explained that the option would likely appeal to the Tigers given the scarcity of alternatives available.
Latest On Ichiro, Yankees
Ichiro Suzuki strongly wants to re-sign with the Yankees, a person close to the free agent outfielder told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Ichiro enjoyed playing in a winning atmosphere with players in his age range this past season, Sherman reports. It sounds as though Ichiro could be retained for a one-year deal in the $5-8MM range.
The Yankees still intend to build around left-handed power, Sherman reports. This will make it difficult to accommodate both Ichiro and Brett Gardner without shifting Gardner to a reserve role. Yankees GM Brian Cashman recently said the Yankees will have a better sense of how Ichiro fits in their plans when they hold their upcoming pro scouting meetings.
Managerial Notes: Marlins, Blue Jays
Three teams are still looking for managers: the Marlins, Blue Jays and Rockies. Here’s the latest on the managerial searches, starting in Miami…
- Ozzie Guillen told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald that he doesn't think the Marlins made the right decision in firing him earlier this week. Guillen had three years and $7.5MM remaining on his contract at the time of his dismissal.
- Former MLB catcher Mike Redmond has impressed baseball people such as Jack McKeon and Fredi Gonzalez with his knowledge of the game, Spencer reports. Redmond, a minor league manager in the Blue Jays organization, appears to be a leading candidate for the Marlins' managerial position. The Marlins hope to interview others, including Reds pitching coach Bryan Price, according to Spencer.
- Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar won’t be interviewed for the Blue Jays job, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports (on Twitter). The Blue Jays interviewed Bogar for the position two years ago before hiring John Farrell.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels will pursue starting pitchers and relievers in the offseason ahead.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Albert Pujols, 1B: $228MM through 2021
- Jered Weaver, SP: $70MM through 2016
- C.J. Wilson, SP: $65MM through 2016
- Vernon Wells, OF: $42MM through 2014
- Erick Aybar, SS: $34MM through 2016
- Howie Kendrick, 2B: $27.5MM through 2015
- Chris Iannetta, C: $15.55MM through 2015
- Scott Downs, RP: $5MM through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Alberto Callaspo, 3B: $4.2MM (third time eligible)
- Kendrys Morales, DH: $4.8MM (third time eligible)
- Jerome Williams, SP: $1.9MM (second time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Kevin Jepsen, RP: $1.1MM (first time eligible)
Contract Options
- Dan Haren, SP: $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
- Ervin Santana, SP: $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Free Agents
The Angels are expected to make significant changes to a team that fell short of expectations in 2012. While it'd be hard to match the kind of impact additions they acquired a year ago, GM Jerry Dipoto recently indicated to Mike DiGiovanna of Los Angeles Times that the Angels will be able to spend in the offseason ahead. "We've never been short of resources," the GM said.
Zack Greinke will hit free agency as the top starting pitcher available. Whoever signs the right-hander will presumably complete a deal after he has listened to offers from other clubs. He didn’t wait this long and turn down a nine-figure contract only to pass on free agency with weeks remaining before his best chance for a major payday. The Angels should bid on Greinke, an elite pitcher in his prime. They have the need and the resources, so spending in excess of $110MM would be justified.
The Angels are expected to decline club options for starters Dan Haren and Ervin Santana. Haren had a mediocre season, and won't be retained for $15.5MM. That shouldn't stop the Angels from making him a $13.3MM qualifying offer in my view. Extending a qualifying offer would lead to one of two desirable outcomes: Haren returns on a one-year deal or he departs, netting the Angels a compensatory draft choice in 2013.
Santana’s option will also be declined following a season in which his ERA climbed over 5.00 and his fastball velocity dropped. He won’t get a one-year qualifying offer from the Angels — it’d be an excessive commitment. Even if the Angels sign Greinke, they’ll be expected to seek a back-of-the-rotation option to complement Garrett Richards and Jerome Williams. Dipoto will be able to address this need later in the offseason, when potential bargains exist in free agency.
While Torii Hunter had a tremendous season, there are signs that his production could fade in the relatively near future. Hunter led the American League in batting average on balls in play this past season, posting a career high mark of .389. That's not sustainable for anyone, let alone a 37-year-old with diminishing speed. Furthermore, Hunter's isolated power dipped for the third consecutive season. It must also be noted that at some point Hunter’s defensive skills will decline. If the Angels want to re-sign Hunter for something like two years and $20MM, they should go for it. He’s still a good player. But if it takes a longer term contract or significantly more dollars it’d make sense for the Angels to let him go. Even large market teams must be discerning with their money.
This brings us to Vernon Wells, the 33-year-old outfielder with two years and $42MM remaining on his contract. Though the Angels would reportedly like to trade Wells, he has limited trade value after a season in which he posted a .230/.279/.403 batting line and hit 11 home runs. Unless the Angels work out a deal involving a comparable bad contract or absorb $30MM-plus of Wells' contract, he's not going anywhere.
It’s worth discussing the contract status of another Angels outfielder, even if he just completed his rookie season. Mike Trout might be viewed as an extension candidate after an extraordinary debut performance. While I understand the urge to lock Trout up, the Angels should be patient. The only players who compare to Trout at this point are Hall of Fame caliber talents, which means he’d be justified in demanding a historic financial commitment. If the Angels wait a year and Trout repeats his performance, they can pursue an extension at that point with the knowledge that a discount wasn’t attainable. But if Trout’s not quite as dominant in 2013, the Angels might be able to avoid paying him an unprecedented amount.
Though Alberto Callaspo will likely return to the Angels through the arbitration process, the Angels could seek upgrades at third base. There’s not a whole lot out there now, either in trades or free agency. Dipoto should keep tabs on trade candidates in case someone like David Wright or Chase Headley becomes available. Alex Rodriguez, another potentially available star, wouldn’t be a fit in Anaheim unless the Yankees are taking on a significant majority of the $114MM remaining on the 37-year-old’s contract.
The Angels got an early start on the offseason this month, signing Chris Iannetta to a three-year extension. It seems likely that other prospective free agents including Maicer Izturis, LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen will move on this winter.
Dipoto will be seeking bullpen help in the months to come. He has said he doesn’t intend to pay a premium for relievers given the volatility of relief performances from year to year. Rafael Soriano might tempt the Angels if he opts out of his contract with the Yankees, yet a major free agent deal seems unlikely. Perhaps trade candidates such as Chris Perez and Joel Hanrahan will appeal to the GM instead. Alternatively, he could wait and obtain an affordable middle reliever or two in January or February.
The team's arbitration class could shrink to just three players if Williams gets non-tendered this winter. The remaining trio of Callaspo, Kevin Jepsen and Kendrys Morales shouldn't cost much more than $10MM in total and doesn't include any obvious extension candidates.
There's seemingly no chance the Angels will generate as much buzz as they did last winter. But Dipoto's roster already has enough star power that he doesn't need to make headlines for the offseason to be considered a success. He needs pitching and at this point that seems like an attainable goal.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lohse, Reds
All five NL Central teams are in full-on offseason mode now that the Cardinals have been eliminated from the postseason. Here's the latest from what used to be baseball's only six-team division…
- The Pirates have continued putting their prospects through Navy SEALS-style exercises at all hours, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Outfield prospect Gregory Polanco told Kovacevic that he injured himself in an unconventional drill that included sprints through ice water and leaping into a sand pit. Team president Frank Coonelly stated his support for the Pirates' baseball operations staff in late September, after news of the unconventional training methods surfaced.
- Kyle Lohse, a free agent this coming offseason, said he'd like to play for a winner, B.J. Rains of FOXSportsMidwest reports. The right-hander hasn't been in contact with the Cardinals about a new deal and is expected to sign elsewhere. "There are certain places I'd like to go and certain places I probably wouldn't," he said.
- John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer looks at the Reds' 2013 payroll commitments and determines that if GM Walt Jocketty does anything big this offseason, it will likely be with a trade rather than a free agent signing.