Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds
After an excellent four-year run, the Reds signed Homer Bailey to a huge extension but otherwise only made small moves this offseason, perhaps preparing to set aside more money to retain other members of their increasingly-expensive core.
Major League Signings
- RP Manny Parra: Two years, $5.5MM
- UT Skip Schumaker: Two years, $5MM, plus 2016 option
- C Brayan Pena: Two years, $2.275MM
- Total spend: $13.775MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jeff Francis, Chien-Ming Wang, Roger Bernadina, Ramon Santiago, Bryan Anderson, Edgar Gonzalez, Hernan Iribarren, Jason Bourgeois, Chris Nelson
Trades and Claims
- Acquired P David Holmberg from the Diamondbacks for C Ryan Hanigan in a three-team trade.
- Claimed P Brett Marshall off waivers from the Cubs.
- Claimed P Pedro Beato off waivers from the Red Sox.
Extensions
- SP Homer Bailey: Six years, $105MM with a mutual option for 2020
- RP Sam LeCure: Two years, $3.05MM
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
The Reds made only one significant trade and three small MLB-level free agent signings. The Brayan Pena contract preceded the Ryan Hanigan deal, which briefly meant the Reds had three MLB-caliber catchers (Pena, Hanigan and Devin Mesoraco). They then sent Hanigan, a better player than Pena, to Tampa for a pitching prospect (David Holmberg) who isn't likely to make a significant impact. If the Reds can get anything out of Holmberg (who lacks upside but could provide a bit of starting rotation depth), the Hanigan trade might turn into a modest win for them — Hanigan doesn't hit much, and the trade opens more playing time for the younger Mesoraco. But the Reds will likely miss Hanigan's pitch-framing.
The Reds also signed Skip Schumaker, an aging, light-hitting 2B/OF who isn't good at either position, to a perplexing two-year deal. They did much better in re-signing Manny Parra, who made lefties look ridiculous last season and who should play a key role in the Reds' 2014 bullpen. At $5.5MM, he's a great deal, especially compared to roughly-similar lefties like Boone Logan and Javier Lopez who got three-year contracts. Logan got three times as much ($16.5MM) from the Rockies as Parra did from the Reds.
Questions Remaining
The Reds have done little to compensate for the departure of Shin-Soo Choo and his .423 OBP, and instead they'll hope that Billy Hamilton can step into their outfield. The difference between Choo and Hamilton might not be quite as enormous as it initially appears, since Hamilton's baserunning is so valuable and since Choo wasn't an ideal fit for center field. But offensively, Hamilton is a big step down, and after a season in which he posted a .308 OBP at Triple-A Louisville, there are questions about how often he'll be able to reach base and use his speed. Last fall, we suggested the Reds might acquire another outfielder as an insurance policy, but they haven't, unless you count Schumaker. (Chris Heisey will be the Reds' main outfield backup.) They might have also been able to use a backup plan in left field, where the aging and often inconsistent Ryan Ludwick is anything but a certainty, particularly after a 2013 season shortened by a major injury.
With Bronson Arroyo's departure, the Reds also have concerns about their rotation depth, but there appears to be little they can do about it. (Holmberg's addition should help a bit there.) And now closer Aroldis Chapman is out for six weeks to two months after a nasty recent injury. Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall are both also returning from injury. The Reds' bullpen should be strong overall once everyone gets healthy, however.
Deal Of Note
With Choo and Arroyo departing, Homer Bailey's impending free agency represented a test for the Reds, and they did open their wallets, signing him to a six-year deal with an option for a seventh. While $105MM guaranteed may seem like an astronomical figure for a pitcher with Bailey's generally undistinguished track record, it's worth keeping in mind that teams ought to pay players for what they're going to do, not what they've already done.
In recent years, Bailey has made slow but significant improvement in a number of key areas — his strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and even his velocity. He was a top-of-the-rotation-type pitcher in 2013, and at age 27 (28 in May), he's a very good bet to remain one in the near future. As MLBTR's Steve Adams recently noted, Bailey's contract is one of several (including those of Masahiro Tanaka, Freddie Freeman and Phil Hughes) that reflect the importance of age. There's a good chance Bailey will improve in the near future, unlike the vast majority of players who sign $100MM contracts.
Overview
Immediately after the 2013 season, the Reds fired manager Dusty Baker, replacing him with former pitching coach Bryan Price. That began a tumultuous offseason in which the Reds braced for Choo's departure and prepared to trade star second baseman Brandon Phillips. One might have thought that the Reds were coming off a 70-win season, rather than 90 wins and a playoff berth. The Reds ultimately held onto Phillips, but otherwise, their offseason behavior wasn't typical of a contending team. While the Reds don't usually have splashy offseasons, their quiet winter means their talent level is significantly behind that of the Cardinals, and probably behind that of the Pirates again as well.
Part of the problem might be the need to look to the future. The Reds now have Bailey locked down for the next several years, but Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake will all be eligible for free agency following the 2015 season. The Reds have one good young pitcher in Tony Cingrani and at least one more on the way in top prospect Robert Stephenson, but they may still have to either ink some combination of Cueto, Latos and Leake long-term or scramble to fill rotation spots in two years.
Meanwhile, the rest of their team is about to get very expensive. Joey Votto, Phillips and Bailey will make a total of $32MM in 2014, but they'll cost $51MM in 2016 and $55MM in 2017. Those are huge numbers for a small-market team.
At this point, the Reds have gotten lots of mileage out of their once-young core of Votto, Phillips, Jay Bruce, Leake, Bailey and Cueto — they've won 90-plus games and gone to the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. As the economics of baseball drive those players' salaries north, though, it will be tougher and tougher for the Reds to keep them. It will also be tough to fill holes around them without more star-caliber talent on the way from the farm system. Baseball Prospectus recently ranked the Reds' group of 25-and-under players (led by Stephenson, Hamilton, Mesoraco and Cingrani) 23rd-best in the Majors. Baseball America (subscription required) was even less charitable, ranking the Reds 27th in the 25-and-under category.
The Reds are, to some degree, victims of their own success. They haven't had a top-ten draft pick since they selected Leake eighth overall in 2009. While recent first-rounders like Stephenson and Phillip Ervin appear to be good players, it isn't easy to develop stars when there are always at least a dozen teams picking ahead of you, especially if your team isn't traditionally a big player for Latin American amateur talent.
Within this context, their trade for Choo before the 2013 season looks like it might have been more of a one-last-shot move than the sort of deal the Reds typically make. That isn't to say it will be impossible for the Reds to contend in 2014, only that their days of being a perennial 90-win team may be nearing an end, at least for now.
The Reds' NL Central rivals in Milwaukee have had similar problems recently — the Brewers had a successful run of seasons with their Ryan Braun / Prince Fielder core, but struggled to maintain their success after those players got expensive. In the long term, the Reds' situation isn't as dire as the Brewers', because the Reds have done a better job in recent years of acquiring and developing young talent. But the parallels are hard to ignore. If you're a small-market team, it can be difficult to manage your assets as they start to earn more money. The Reds might have some tougher sledding ahead.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL Notes: Chapman, Turner, Cubs
Reds closer Aroldis Chapman got relatively good news a day after being struck in the face with a ball, as MLB.com's Mark Sheldon notes. He's having surgery today, but he could be out of the hospital by this weekend. He'll likely be out six to eight weeks, and the Reds believe he will definitely pitch this season. Best of all, he had only a mild concussion, and not a serious brain injury. Here are more notes from the National League.
- The Marlins could deal starting pitcher Jacob Turner due to their depth of starting pitching, FOX Sports Jon Morosi tweets. The Mariners and Diamondbacks could be possible trade partners. Turner, who will be 23 in May, posted a 3.74 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 2013. He will be eligible for arbitration after the 2015 season and free agency after the 2018 season.
- The Cubs are currently considering at least 12 players as potential selections with the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes. The draft isn't for another two-plus months, so it's hardly surprising that the Cubs' list would be so long. It includes now-familiar names like NC State pitcher Carlos Rodon (who very likely will be gone by the time the Cubs pick), East Carolina pitcher Jeff Hoffman, Vanderbilt pitcher Tyler Beede, and Texas high school pitcher Tyler Kolek.
AL Notes: Springer, Tigers, Orioles
The Astros have optioned top prospect George Springer to the minors, MLB.com's Brian McTaggart tweets. The demotion comes shortly after the news that the Astros had offered Springer a seven-year, $23MM contract before he had even played a day in the Majors. Springer's demotion will likely raise further questions about the effect of MLB service time on teams' promotion decisions. As FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal put it last night, "If Springer was good enough to be offered $23 million, why isn't he good enough to crack the 25-man roster of a team that has finished with the worst record in the majors in each of the past three seasons?" By having Springer start the season in the minors, the Astros can ensure that he will become a free agent after the 2020 season, rather than after the 2019 season. And if they wait to promote him until the early summer, they can limit his number of arbitration-eligible seasons to three rather than four. As Rosenthal points out, if Springer had agreed to the Astros' contract offer, these service-time issues would have been moot.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski says he has not been engaged in any serious trade talks recently, MLB.com's Andrew Simon tweets. Dombrowski offered no specific details about free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew. Meanwhile, it looks like shortstop Jose Iglesias may miss the entire 2014 season with stress fractures in his shins, as CBS Sports' Jon Heyman notes. Iglesias should be able to play in 2015, however.
- Orioles executive Dan Duquette recounts his team's strange offseason in an interview with MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski. The Orioles endured plenty of criticism for their quiet offseason before they swooped in late to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. "We were trying to sign a number of players and it didn't work out the way we thought it might," Duquette says. "But if we signed the players we signed back in November or December, people would say the Orioles are gearing up." Duquette also says the Orioles will not comment on any extension discussions with shortstop J.J. Hardy.
Mets Notes: Davis, Duda, Tejada
Mets first baseman Ike Davis is playing in a regular spring training game today, ESPN New York's Adam Rubin tweets. Davis has been out of action, at least in Grapefruit League games, since early March due to a calf injury. His return could be significant, since he has long been a trade candidate. Two days ago, the Mets were reportedly making calls to assess interest in Davis, but it seemed unlikely they would trade him until he was ready to return from injury. The Pirates, who are in need of a left-handed first base option, potentially could be a trade partner. Here are more notes on the Mets.
- The Mets still have to decide between Davis and Lucas Duda, and now have little time to do so, given the injuries to both players, Andy Martino of New York Daily News writes. Martino reports that the Mets are more likely to trade Davis than Duda, but are open to dealing either one.
- Martino also says scouts believe Ruben Tejada could be a good player if removed from the New York market. "The way I look at Tejada, he could be OK, but he needs to get out of New York," says a scout. "A classic change-of-scenery guy." The Mets continue to watch the markets for Nick Franklin and Didi Gregorius (who would be available via trade) and Stephen Drew (via free agency), but are unlikely to play the prices required for any of those players.
Orioles Near Deal With Luis Ayala
The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Luis Ayala, Max Wildstein of OutsidePitchMLB.com tweets. FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal mentioned last night (also on Twitter) that Ayala had offers from the Orioles and another team, and that he could make a decision today.
The Nationals released Ayala yesterday after he struggled in spring training. Last season, he posted a 3.27 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 33 innings. Two of those innings came with the Orioles, who traded him to the Braves about a week after the season started. Ayala was also a regular in the Orioles' bullpen in their 2012 playoff season.
Rosenthal On Morales, Tigers, Cleto, Reds
Here's the latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports:
- The Mariners have made a series of attempts to re-sign DH Kendrys Morales since he turned down their qualifying offer, but the Mariners' proposals probably reflected the reality that if they re-signed Morales, they would lose the compensatory draft pick they would gain if another team signed him. Some Mariners personnel believe the team's greatest need right now is another hitter.
- After Jose Iglesias' injury, the Tigers' shortstop options (Danny Worth, Hernan Perez, Eugenio Suarez) do not impress scouts. The Tigers likely won't pursue free agent Stephen Drew, and trade target Chris Owings of the Diamondbacks doesn't look likely either. Rosenthal speculates the Tigers could look to Clint Barmes of the Pirates or Tyler Pastornicky of the Braves instead.
- The White Sox are excited about Maikel Cleto, who they recently claimed off waivers from the Royals. He's now throwing 96-98 MPH down in the zone with good secondary pitches. Since Cleto is out of options, the White Sox had originally considered trying to sneak him through waivers after they claimed him, but now that seems very unlikely.
- The Reds are worried about their depth of starting pitching, but they don't have enough room in their budget to make a significant addition.
Tigers Monitoring Nate Schierholtz, Darwin Barney
Tigers executive Scott Reid is scouting Cubs outfielder Nate Schierholtz and infielder Darwin Barney, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. The Cubs would be looking for pitching in return. The Tigers have lost outfielder Andy Dirks and shortstop Jose Iglesias to serious injuries. Dirks was slated to form the left-handed side of a left-field platoon with Rajai Davis. The left-handed Scherholtz would seem to fit the bill as his replacement, even though he has mostly played right field in recent years.
Barney has played shortstop only sparingly since 2010, and the Tigers have no real need at second base, with Ian Kinsler in tow. Barney is a strong defensive second baseman, however, and he has played a bit of shortstop this spring with Starlin Castro dealing with a hamstring injury. Barney recently told the Chicago Tribune's Mark Gonzales that he would be fine playing shortstop. "Shortstop is my natural position," he said. "I feel very comfortable over there. The past three years at second base I've still taken balls at short almost every day as part of my workout to stretch my arm out. So I don't look at it as a transition." Barney hit poorly in 2013, with a line of .208/.266/.303 in 555 plate appearances, but he produced enough value with his defense to be above replacement level.
Javy Guerra Drawing Trade Interest
Dodgers reliever Javy Guerra is drawing trade interest from several teams, a source tells MLB Daily Dish's Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The Dodgers designated Guerra for assignment last weekend.
It's not surprising that Guerra is attracting interest. He was a key part of the Dodgers' bullpens in both 2011 and 2012, serving as their closer in parts of both seasons. He spent much of 2013 in Triple-A Albuquerque, but he posted good numbers in a tough environment for pitchers, with a 3.66 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 39 1/3 innings. He's also only 28 and is not yet arbitration-eligible. He is out of options, which limited the Dodgers' flexibility with him following an offseason in which they signed free-agent relievers Brian Wilson, Chris Perez and Jamey Wright.
Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians
After making the playoffs in 2013 following the additions of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher, the Indians had a quiet offseason.
Major League Signings
- OF David Murphy: two years, $12MM, plus 2016 option
- RP John Axford: one year, $4.5MM
- Total spend: $16.5MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Aaron Harang, Nyjer Morgan, Jeff Francoeur, Shaun Marcum, Kyle Davies, David Aardsma, Elliot Johnson, Tyler Cloyd
Trades and Claims
- Traded OF Drew Stubbs to the Rockies for P Josh Outman
- Acquired INF Justin Sellers from the Dodgers for cash
Notable Losses
Extensions
- OF Michael Brantley: four years, $25MM, plus 2018 team option
Needs Addressed
The Indians made an upside play to address their bullpen by signing John Axford to a one-year deal. Axford was often erratic as the Brewers' closer, but has great stuff and pitched well down the stretch for the Cardinals. If he performs with the Indians, they have the ability to take him to arbitration for two more seasons. The addition of Axford will help compensate for the losses of Chris Perez (who the Indians released after he lost his closer job down the stretch and wound up in trouble for receiving a package of marijuana at his home) and Joe Smith. Josh Outman, acquired in a deal with the Rockies, will also likely play a role in the Indians' revamped bullpen, perhaps along with Axford, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Marc Rzepczynski and Vinnie Pestano. (Also this offseason, the Indians defeated Pestano and Josh Tomlin in their first arbitration cases since 1991.)
Taking Stubbs' place in right field will be David Murphy, who the Indians signed to a two-year deal. Murphy hit just .220/.282/.374 with the Rangers last season, but that was with a BABIP 75 points below his career rate, so he's a good bet to bounce back and provide a bit of offense, along with above-average defense, this season. If he does, Murphy, Bourn, Michael Brantley and Ryan Raburn could provide the Indians with an above-average outfield.
Questions Remaining
The Indians have taken a hit with the departures of Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir this offseason, and will depend on a trio of younger arms in Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister and Danny Salazar. They'll also have Justin Masterson in his last season remaining before free agency. Those four players are all clearly worthy of rotation spots and should be fine, and Salazar, in particular, should help soften the blow of losing Jimenez and Kazmir. But the Indians are still without a fifth starter — Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Aaron Harang are competing for the job. Shaun Marcum may eventually be a factor, but he's still recovering from issues related to thoracic outlet syndrome.
There's also the matter of what they'll do with Masterson. Masterson should be able to command a hefty multiyear deal next offseason, but he has reportedly told the Indians he would be willing to take a three-year contract to stay in Cleveland. That seems extremely generous of him, but the two sides have not yet stuck a deal. (The Indians have also reportedly discussed an extension with star second baseman Jason Kipnis.)
Finally, the Indians are trying to figure out where they'll play Carlos Santana, who spent the offseason working out at third base. Yan Gomes figures to take most of the playing time at catcher, Santana's usual position. One possibility might be to have him platoon with Lonnie Chisenhall, a left-handed hitter, at third. Santana, a switch-hitter, could then spot Gomes at catcher or DH on days when Chisenhall is at the hot corner. Chisenhall struggled in the big leagues in 2013 but is still just 25 and has hit well at the Triple-A level. Much hinges, however, on how well Santana takes to the position.
Deal of Note
Brantley's four-year, $25MM extension, which contains an $11MM club option or a $1MM buyout for 2018, buys out one and perhaps two years of free agent eligibility. Brantley had filed for $3.8MM in his first season of arbitration, with the Indians offering $2.7MM. That's a fairly large difference, but the midpoint of $3.25MM would have positioned Brantley to make perhaps $13MM-$16MM in his three arbitration seasons. That means the Indians are effectively paying about $10MM for 2017, which is Brantley's age-30 season, plus the possibility of retaining him in 2018. Brantley is approximately an average player — he's never had a star-caliber season and doesn't have much power, but he hits for good averages and is competent in center or in a corner. The deal will be fine if he maintains his current level of performance, and very good if he takes a step forward as he heads into his late twenties.
Overview
The Indians' surprising 2012-13 shopping spree lingered this winter. A year ago, the Indians spent heavily on Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher, improved by 24 games, and received … what? Attendance was actually lower in 2013 (1.57MM) than it had been in 2012 (1.60MM), and tiny home crowds, frequently in the 10K-13K range, watched the Indians down the stretch as they battled for, and won, a playoff spot. Then their season ended unceremoniously as they lost to the Rays in the AL Wild Card game.
The Indians responded with an offseason in which they didn't seem to make much of an effort to re-sign Jimenez, perhaps content to collect a compensation pick and move forward. They also lost Kazmir, who emerged from baseball oblivion to play a key role on the 2013 team.
This isn't to say the Indians will be helpless in 2014. Bourn and Swisher are still on the payroll, and they actually weren't crucial to the Indians' playoff run last year — Kipnis, Gomes, Santana and Raburn were the Indians' four best position players by fWAR. If Bourn and Swisher can contribute more in 2014, they can offset potential regression by Gomes and Raburn and help the Indians compensate for the losses of Jimenez and Kazmir. A full season from the very promising Salazar could also help the Indians significantly. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see them make another playoff run.
After their splashy 2012-13 offseason, though, the Indians haven't followed up, despite the lucrative TV deal to which they agreed prior to the 2013 season. The Indians could have shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (who will make $10MM in 2014) and perhaps Masterson ($9.76MM) come off the books after the season. If they do, and the Indians' attendance woes continue, it will be interesting to see how the team responds. If Masterson is in fact willing to take a three-year deal rather than a contract more along the lines of the $105MM extension Homer Bailey recently signed with the Reds, then signing him would seem to be a fairly easy decision, and a potential signal that the Indians are still willing to bid on top talent.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Notes: Drew, Tigers, Blue Jays, Orioles
For the Tigers, signing free agent shortstop Stephen Drew would make "a great deal of sense," Dayn Perry of CBS Sports writes. Jose Iglesias looks likely to miss much of the season with a leg injury. The Tigers are lucky, in a sense, that a player as good as Drew is still out there to pursue. And though they would have to sacrifice the No. 23 overall pick in the draft to sign Drew, they need to focus on their goal of winning the 2014 World Series, Perry suggests. If Iglesias were to return at midseason, the Tigers could potentially move Drew to third base if Nick Castellanos isn't performing well there. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, however, has recently indicated that he is not interested in signing Drew. Here's more from the American League.
- The Blue Jays are building their 25-man roster with the purpose of keeping out-of-options players in the organization, MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm reports. Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Perez, Esmil Rogers, Sergio Santos, Todd Redmond and Moises Sierra are all out of options. Recent cuts Chad Jenkins and Neil Wagner might have received more consideration if the Blue Jays hadn't had the ability to send them to the minors.
- Orioles executive Dan Duquette has done a nice job finding talent on the fringes, writes MLB.com's Richard Justice. That includes pitcher Miguel Gonzalez, who the Orioles signed from the Mexican League as a 27-year-old, and outfielder Nate McLouth, who the O's acquired after he was released by the Pirates and who played a key role down the stretch in 2012.