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MLBTR Poll: Expectations For 2021 Mets

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Although the Mets missed the playoffs for the fourth straight year in 2020, they look as if they’ll head into the upcoming regular season as a popular pick to contend. New owner Steve Cohen’s arrival early in the winter brought a great deal of optimism for Mets fans, who suffered for years under the yoke of the Wilpons. Cohen has largely lived up to the hype since taking over, as he oversaw an active offseason in which the Mets’ roster looks to have taken steps forward.

The Mets did lose second baseman Robinson Cano for the year because of a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, and they didn’t reel in any of Trevor Bauer, George Springer or J.T. Realmuto in free agency, but they still ponied up for several notable names in recent months.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor, an elite player for a large portion of his career, and quality right-hander Carlos Carrasco came over in a major trade with Cleveland. James McCann, who ranked second behind Realmuto among free-agent catchers, signed a four-year, $40MM deal to assume the reins as the Mets’ starting backstop. Righty Marcus Stroman, who opted out of last season thanks to COVID-19, stuck around when he accepted the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, and they filled out their season-opening rotation last month with the signing of fellow RHP Taijuan Walker to a three-year, $23MM guarantee late. Reliever Trevor May, lefty Joey Lucchesi, infielder Jonathan Villar, and outfielders Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora Jr. were also among those who became Mets during the offseason.

Despite the loss of Cano, the Mets look as if they’ll have a high-end offense in 2021 with Lindor and McCann complementing holdovers Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis. The starting staff also looks good with Carrasco, Stroman and Walker joining ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson (and don’t forget that Noah Syndergaard will return from his Tommy John recovery during the summer). The bullpen appears to be more of a question mark, especially with Seth Lugo having undergone elbow surgery last month, though the signings of May and lefty Aaron Loup should help New York’s cause.

There still could be room for further Mets acquisitions in the coming weeks, but for the most part, their roster looks set going into the new season. The team won 26 of 60 regular-season games and wound up last in the National League East in 2020, but thanks in part to its offseason, PECOTA projects a 93-win effort in 2021 and a first-place finish in a tough division that also features the Braves, Nationals, Phillies and Marlins. Are you buying the Mets as a playoff-caliber team?

(Poll link for app users)

Padres Notes: Castillo, Lamet

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Padres left-handed reliever Jose Castillo departed his sim game after six pitches Tuesday because of forearm tightness, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.

This is the latest setback for Castillo, who missed all of last season because of a teres major strain and threw just two-thirds of an inning in 2019 while dealing with a flexor strain and a torn ligament in his hand. The severity of Castillo’s current issue isn’t yet known, but considering forearm problems often serve as a precursor to Tommy John surgery, he and the Padres are surely holding their breath leading up to Wednesday’s re-evaluation.

Still just 25 years old, Castillo debuted in 2018 with a very productive rookie season, during which he fired 38 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA/2.53 SIERA ball, managed a tremendous 34.7 percent strikeout rate, and complemented that with a solid 8.0 percent walk rate. Castillo also averaged about 95 mph on his fastball then and held his own against both left- and right-handed hitters. With the Padres expected to contend in 2021, Castillo could re-emerge as an important part of their bullpen if he’s healthy, but it’s once again up in the air whether he’ll be able to contribute.

The news is better in regards to right-hander Dinelson Lamet, who was among the majors’ best starters in 2020 before elbow trouble ended his season in late September. Lamet threw 15 pitches and reached 96 mph on his fastball Tuesday, according to Cassavell, but he may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day. Understandably, the Padres are erring on the side of caution with Lamet, but he has “been right on track” in his recovery so far, general manager A.J. Preller said.

Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

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Free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes held a showcase in Florida that 11 teams attended on Tuesday, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. The Yankees, White Sox, Brewers, Blue Jays, Tigers (one of Cespedes’ ex-teams), Padres, Rays, Reds, Marlins, Cubs and Braves were all on hand to watch Cespedes, per Davidoff.

As Davidoff notes, it’s interesting that the majority of clubs that scouted Cespedes are in the National League, which doesn’t appear likely to feature the designated hitter position in 2021. DH seems like the logical spot for Cespedes if he’s going to continue his career, as he hasn’t played the field since 2018, he’s aging (35), and he’s coming off four straight abbreviated seasons because of health issues. The two-time All-Star, most recently with the Mets, played in just 127 of a possible 546 regular-season contests from 2017-20.

Cespedes opted out of last season in August over COVID-19 concerns, but heel and ankle problems dogged him before then and helped make the four-year, $110MM guarantee he received from the Mets in November 2016 a disaster for the club. The two sides agreed to an amended contract in December 2019 that reduced Cespedes’ base salary from $29.5MM to $6MM, but New York didn’t get any bang for its buck out of that.

While Cespedes comes with question marks, he won’t land an expensive deal, which is one of the reasons so many clubs are considering him. When healthy, Cespedes has been a force at the plate, where he has batted .273/.327/.497 (124 wRC+) with 165 home runs in 3,490 trips. That track record could make him a worthwhile buy-low pickup for someone.

Start Of Triple-A Season Delayed

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It was reported back in January that the Single-A and Double-A seasons would not start on time. The same goes for the minors’ highest level, as the 2021 Triple-A campaign will be delayed “by at least a month,” Jeff Passan of ESPN.com writes. It had been scheduled to begin April 6.

There was no minors season in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the hope for this year is that they’ll be able to resume play sometime in May. As a result of the delay, alternate training sites will return this season and could last longer than expected, in part because of concerns over travel for minor leaguers, according to Passan. The alternate sites would feature about two dozen players, Passan adds.

Despite this setback, Passan writes that there’s hope the delay to the Triple-A slate will allow for the vaccination of players and a full season. The campaign will last into September if it opens in May.

Kole Calhoun To Undergo Knee Surgery

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5:20pm: Calhoun has a torn meniscus, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com tweets.

5:07pm: Diamondbacks outfielder Kole Calhoun will undergo right knee surgery Wednesday, manager Torey Lovullo told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. Lovullo was unable to offer any details on the procedure.

While it’s unknown how much time he will miss, it at least seems likely that Calhoun will sit out the start of the regular season, which is less than. a month away. That’s unwelcome news for Arizona, as Calhoun was one of its few bright spots during a disappointing 2020. After signing a two-year, $16MM guarantee in free agency, the longtime Angel slashed .226/.338/.526 (125 wRC+) with 16 home runs and a career-high .300 isolated power number in 228 plate appearances. Calhoun also continued his good work in right field, where he recorded a 5.3 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Considering he isn’t signed beyond this season, Calhoun’s entering a pivotal year. If he’s able to rebound quickly and perform even close to as well as he did last year, Calhoun could convince the Diamondbacks to exercise his $9MM option for 2022 instead of buying him out for $2MM. Regardless, it appears the Diamondbacks are going to have to at least temporarily pencil in someone else in right, where Josh VanMeter, Daulton Varsho, Pavin Smith, Josh Rojas and Stuart Fairchild could be in-house possibilities who are on the team’s 40-man roster. Otherwise, Arizona may consider free agency, waivers or a trade.

Quick Hits: Springer, Conforto, Straw, Greinke

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The Mets were a popular pick for outfielder George Springer before he signed a six-year, $150MM contract with the Blue Jays in January. Team president Sandy Alderson “suggested” on Monday that the Mets were willing to sign Springer for five years, not six, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Alderson added that New York likely wouldn’t have been able to extend outfielder Michael Conforto had it signed Springer. “At some point, even Steve Cohen runs out of money,” Alderson said of the team’s owner. Conforto, who turned 28 today, is three years younger than Springer and coming off an even better season at the plate. He’s due to become a free agent next winter, but the Mets expect to begin talks on an extension sometime soon.

  • With Springer no longer in Houston, the Astros appear likely to turn to Myles Straw at center field to open the season. If the Straw experiment doesn’t work out, though, it’s probable that Chas McCormick will be their fallback plan at the position, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic writes. The 25-year-old has a better chance to make the team than veteran outfielder Steven Souza Jr., whom the Astros signed to a minor league deal, as he’s already on their 40-man roster and capable of playing center, Kaplan notes. McCormick impressed during his most recent minors action in 2019, when he slashed .269/.386/.432 with 14 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A.
  • Sticking with the Astros, ace Zack Greinke is entering the last season of his contract – his age-37 campaign – but is not thinking retirement, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relays. Based on his performance in 2020, Greinke has plenty left in the tank. Although he posted a 4.03 ERA – one of the highest figures of his potential Hall of Fame career – Greinke registered a better 3.72 SIERA with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate and an elite 3.3 percent walk rate. Greinke also induced a fair amount of weak contact, evidenced in part by the 86.8 mph exit velocity hitters mustered against him.

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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A bad bullpen can play a major role in destroying a team’s playoff hopes, as we saw with last year’s Phillies. They finished a game behind the National League’s lowest-seeded playoff team, in part because their relief pitchers could not perform. Here’s how the Phillies and the game’s other four worst bullpens from 2020 (based on ERA) have tried to improve themselves since last season ended….

Phillies (7.06 ERA, 13.1 K-BB percentage):

  • The Phillies might have broken their playoff drought last year if not for a bullpen that didn’t get much high-end production out of any of its regulars. New Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld have gone to work to better the unit, having added several veterans – Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler, Tony Watson, Chase Anderson, Hector Rondon, Neftali Feliz and Sam Coonrod, to name some – early in their regime. Some of those players aren’t on guaranteed contracts and will have to fight for spots this spring, but there’s no shortage of experience or success among most of the group.

Rockies (6.77 ERA, 8.8 K-BB percentage):

  • Daniel Bard earned NL Comeback Player of the Year honors as a member of the Rockies, and Yency Almonte also put together a very good 2020. They’ll stick around this season, though no other returning Rockies relievers recorded good numbers over a solid amount of innings last year. There is some potential for the team’s bullpen production to get better in 2021, though. Mychal Givens, who has typically been a quality reliever, struggled in a mere 9 1/3 innings last season; Carlos Estevez, one of the Rockies’ most reliable relievers in 2019, put up an ERA north of 7.00 in 24 frames; and newcomer Robert Stephenson, whom the Rox acquired from the Reds earlier this offseason, was effective two years ago before falling off a cliff in 2020.

Mariners (5.92 ERA, 7.8 K-BB percentage):

  • In light of last year’s issues, general manager Jerry Dipoto came into the offseason saying he wanted three to four new relievers. True to his word, Dipoto added to the Mariners’ relief corps with the likes of Rafael Montero, Keynan Middleton and Will Vest (Rule 5 pick), though the team can’t necessarily count on anyone from that group to fix its issues in 2021.

Red Sox (5.79 ERA, 13.2 K-BB percentage):

  • The Red Sox made an unexpected trade with the enemy Yankees when they acquired righty Adam Ottavino from New York in a January salary dump. Ottavino, who will count $9MM against Boston’s luxury-tax bill in 2021, had a rough time last season, but the 35-year-old has typically been a solid option. Along with Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura (a former Nippon Professional Baseball hurler whom the Red Sox signed for a two-year, $3MM deal), Matt Andriese and Rule 5 selection Garrett Whitlock are newcomers to the group.

Marlins (5.50 ERA, 6.7 K-BB percentage):

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Padres?

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The Padres and their fans endured a long period of suffering, but the club finally returned to relevance in 2020. With 37 wins in 60 games, the Padres posted the sport’s third-best record, broke a 13-year playoff drought and advanced to the NLDS, where they lost to the division-rival Dodgers. While the Dodgers, who went on to win the World Series, are the favorites to reign over the NL again in 2021, the Padres look as if they’ll put up an even bigger fight this year.

Not content to continue playing second fiddle to Los Angeles, San Diego and general manager A.J. Preller have been extremely aggressive in trying to improve their roster since the Dodgers crushed their championship hopes last fall. Dating back to then, the Padres have used trades and free agency to add a slew of notable names – Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Ha-Seong Kim, Mark Melancon, Victor Caratini and Keone Kela lead the way.

Darvish and Dinelson Lamet give the Padres two starters who were in NL Cy Young contention last season; meanwhile Snell’s a former AL Cy Young winner, Musgrove has shown that he’s a legitimate mid-rotation type and Chris Paddack, although he struggled last year, looked like a high-end starter just two years ago. If anything goes haywire with that group, the Padres could get help from prospects such as MacKenzie Gore (MLB.com’s sixth-ranked farmhand) and Adrian Morejon.

Offensively, Kim and Caratini should help a unit that finished third in the majors in runs last year, when the all-world left side of the infield of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge. They’re still around, as are infielder Jake Cronenworth, first baseman Eric Hosmer, outfielders Trent Grisham and Wil Myers – who all enjoyed terrific years.

As is the case with their starting staff and offense, the Padres’ bullpen looks as if it has the potential to be a formidable group in 2021. However, they’ll need more from holdovers such as Emilio Pagan, Craig Stammen and Tim Hill. And the Padres may miss Trevor Rosenthal, a late-season acquisition who left for the Athletics in free agency, but the Melancon and Kela additions ought to help. They’ll join holdovers Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson among the club’s preferred late-game choices.

All said, there isn’t much (anything?) to dislike about the Padres’ roster. The biggest roadblock may be that they’re still stuck in a division with the Dodgers, but PECOTA nonetheless projects a 95-win season for the Padres in 2021. How do you think they’ll fare?

(Poll link for app users)

Lucas Giolito On Potential Extension

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After a difficult start to his career, White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito established himself as a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter over the previous two seasons. The 26-year-old now looks like a long-term cornerstone for the franchise, though it doesn’t appear either side has aggressively pursued a contract extension.

“There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine,” Giolito, a CAA Sports client, told James Fegan of The Athletic. “I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.”

Fortunately for the White Sox, they’re in no imminent danger of losing Giolito, who has three years of arbitration control remaining. However, they have shown in recent years that they’re willing to lock up their core players for the long haul. To name a few prominent examples, the team has signed shortstop Tim Anderson, third baseman Yoan Moncada, and outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert to extensions dating back to 2017. Giolito certainly ranks up there with that group in terms of his importance to the club.

This year, Giolito will earn $4.15MM, which is a major bargain for what he has brought to the table dating back to 2019. While Giolito was one of the worst starters in baseball in 2018, during which he logged a 6.13 ERA/5.37 SIERA in 173 1/3 innings, the light bulb has since gone on for the former star prospect. Giolito notched a 3.43 ERA/3.55 SIERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate against an 8.6 percent walk rate across 249 innings over the prior two seasons, and he finished seventh in the American League Cy Young balloting a year ago.

MLBTR Poll: Shortstop Extension Candidates

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Spring training is often when contract extensions come together, and shortstop is one of the positions that’s certainly worth watching in that regard during the next several weeks. The Mets’ Francisco Lindor, the Dodgers’ Corey Seager, the Rockies’ Trevor Story, the Astros’ Carlos Correa and the Cubs’ Javier Baez are on track to lead a tremendous free-agent class at short next offseason, though it’s conceivable any of them could instead opt for long-term security with a new deal this spring.

It stands to reason the Mets will make a serious effort to lock up Lindor, whom they acquired from Cleveland in a winter blockbuster. There is indeed “mutual interest” in a new deal, but it could cost upward of $300MM in guarantees to lock up the 27-year-old four-time All-Star. Fortunately for the Mets, thanks to the presence of Steve Cohen – the wealthiest owner in the sport – they seem to have a realistic chance of keeping Lindor in the fold beyond this season.

Seager, 27 in April, rounded back into superstar form in 2020 during the regular season and continued to thrive in the playoffs, in which he earned NLCS and World Series MVP honors for the championship-winning Dodgers. Unlike Lindor, though, it’s not clear whether he’s open to an extension. Asked Thursday whether he and the Dodgers have held talks, Seager told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times), “I don’t really want to talk about it, to be honest.” Of course, as the highest-payroll team in the game, the Dodgers should be able to extend Seager if the two sides are motivated to get something done.

There doesn’t appear to be as much hope regarding Story, as they haven’t discussed a new pact with him; plus, as apparent non-contenders that recently traded away former face of the franchise Nolan Arenado (Story’s ex-partner on the left side of the infield), it may make more sense for the club to trade Story prior to the summer deadline.

Correa and Baez were hardly at top form in 2020, but they’re still decorated players in their mid- to late-20s who haven’t made it any secret they’re willing to stay where they are. Both Correa and the Astros are hopeful they’ll reach a deal; meanwhile, Baez made it known yet again Friday that he would like to remain a Cub.

What do you think? Of this group of shortstops, which player do you believe is most likely to sign an extension?

(Poll link for app users)

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