MLBTR Originals
MLBTR’s original analysis from this week:
- With the offseason nearing, Steve Adams highlighted five impending free agent hitters who are trending upward thanks to strong recent performances.
- To continue MLBTR’s “Three Needs” series, Tim Dierkes focused on the White Sox, Mark Polishuk examined the Reds and Jeff Todd analyzed the Rockies.
- In the latest editions of Jason Martinez’s “Top Bright Spots” series, he looked at the Diamondbacks and Reds (ARI, CIN).
Quick Hits: Indians, McCutchen, A’s, Valencia, Brewers
Indians manager Terry Francona announced Saturday that Trevor Bauer, not Cy Young hopeful Corey Kluber, will start Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Thursday (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). Kluber will then take the ball in Game 2 against the Boston. Those two would also start the fourth and fifth games of the series, if necessary, with Josh Tomlin handling Game 3. Kluber has been dealing with a mild quad strain, which the Indians think makes Bauer a better fit for both the first and fourth games – the latter of which would come on three days’ rest. Bauer wrapped up his regular season Saturday with a quality start in a win over the Royals, giving him a 4.26 ERA, 7.96 K/9, 3.32 BB/9 and 48.7 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 190 innings.
More from around the majors:
- In order to bounce back from a disappointing 2016 and return to the playoffs next year, the Pirates will need to focus on pitching and defense during the winter, opines Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Trading five-time All-Star center fielder Andrew McCutchen could improve the team in those areas, argues Sawchik, who observes that the soon-to-be 30-year-old has declined significantly as a defender, baserunner and hitter this season (though, as Sawchik notes, his bat has come alive over the past two months). With right-hander Ivan Nova likely to depart as a free agent, the Bucs will have another need to fill in an already questionable-looking rotation, and Sawchik posits that dealing McCutchen could land them a replacement. McCutchen has two years and a reasonable $28.5MM remaining on his contract, and the Pirates have a possible in-house successor in top prospect Austin Meadows. If McCutchen is still in Pittsburgh in 2017, general manager Neal Huntington expects a much better season from the 2013 National League MVP. “With the foundation we are working from, we believe Andrew is going to be one of those guys that has a quality bounce-back year,” Huntingon told Sawchik.
- The Athletics are reportedly unlikely to bring back Danny Valencia in 2017, but the third baseman/right fielder hopes to stay in Oakland. Valencia told John Hickey of the Mercury News he’d “like to think I’ve cemented my position here for next year.” The 32-year-old has been an easily above-average offensive producer dating back to last season, his first with the A’s, but there have been rumors of clubhouse issues with Valencia and he did get into an altercation with then-teammate Billy Butler in August. Valencia, who’s on a $3.15MM salary, has hit a solid .289/.349/.450 with 17 home runs in 513 plate appearances this year and is scheduled to go through arbitration for the third and final time during the offseason.
- With the possible exception of a Ryan Braun trade, the Brewers’ upcoming offseason should be much quieter than last winter, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. In GM David Stearns’ first offseason at the helm, the rebuilding Brewers turned over half the 40-man roster – something Stearns is pleased with a year later. Milwaukee has “increased the amount of young talent on our team and throughout the organization,” Stearns told Haudricourt. “The more young talent you have, the fewer spots you have to fill. So, I think it’s fair to say it would be unlikely for us to have the same amount of roster turnover.”
Carlos Gonzalez Open To Extension, Position Change
Although Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez is scheduled to become a free agent after next season and could be trade bait during the winter, the three-time All-Star told Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post that he’d like to remain in Colorado. The Rockies have gone just 75-85 this year and will miss the playoffs for the seventh straight season, but there’s young talent in place and Gonzalez is convinced the club is on the right track.
“If you would have asked me early in the year, I would have told you I’m going to wait until I hit free agency and see what’s out there,” said Gonzalez. “But this is a good team. It’s a different feeling. Now I see how guys react in tough situations. We understand we can win. That’s huge for any team, when you trust and believe you can win.”
Moreover, Gonzalez – who has been exclusively an outfielder during his nine-year career – would be open to shifting to first base in order to remain with the Rockies.
“I feel like I’m still a good outfielder and can help the team defensively,” he said. “But if first base is what’s best for the team, I will be good with that … In the long run, it’s probably going to extend my — or anybody’s — career if you play first base. And it won’t be a crazy move.”
With a minus-1.4 fWAR, Rockies first basemen rank 27th in the majors. Most of that negative value has came from Ben Paulsen, who endured a nightmarish 97 plate appearances, while offseason signing Mark Reynolds had a replacement-level campaign before his season ended Sept. 18 on account of a broken hand. One of Gonzalez’s fellow outfielders, Gerardo Parra, also spent time at first this year prior to succumbing to an ankle injury earlier this week. Parra’s bat was unusable anywhere this season, as he produced a woeful .253/.271/.399 line with seven home runs and just nine walks in 381 plate appearances.
The 30-year-old Gonzalez has been much better than Parra, though his .297/.349/.507 line with 25 homers in 624 PAs isn’t as impressive as it looks for someone who spends half his season at Coors Field. As has typically been the case, Gonzalez has fared much better at home than on the road this season, but he has enjoyed his second consecutive healthy campaign after injuries weighed him down in previous years.
Whether at first base or in the outfield – where the Rockies have two other strong options in Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl – the chances of Gonzalez staying in Colorado for the long haul don’t look great. For one, Gonzalez said two weeks ago that the Rockies hadn’t approached him about an extension. Secondly, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Friday, Gonzalez is the most logical trade candidate among the Rockies’ outfielders. Blackmon and Dahl probably aren’t going anywhere, and Parra would amount to a salary dump (if anything). While Gonzalez’s $20MM salary for next season is hefty, it shouldn’t scare off every potential buyer. Plus, the Rockies already have $66MM committed to next year’s team after running up a franchise-record $112MM Opening Day payroll this season, and that’s without factoring in forthcoming arbitration raises for Blackmon, third baseman Nolan Arenado and right-hander Tyler Chatwood, among others.
Jeremy Hellickson “Would Love” To Re-Sign With Phillies
Soon-to-be free agent right-hander Jeremy Hellickson said Thursday that he’d like his next deal to be a multiyear pact, but he also told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com that he’s not ruling out accepting a qualifying offer from the Phillies. In tendering Hellickson a QO after the season, the Phillies would either bring him back next year for $16.7MM or lose him to another team and land a first-round pick as compensation.
“I mean, I definitely could see it,” Hellickson said of taking a qualifying offer.
If he were to accept a QO, Hellickson would join a growing list of players who have gone that route since last offseason, when Orioles catcher Matt Wieters, Astros outfielder Colby Rasmus and Dodgers left-hander Brett Anderson all took one-year, $15.8MM deals to remain where they were. Hellickson certainly has a case for multiyear contract, though, considering both his strong 2016 and the paucity of quality starters scheduled to hit the open market over the winter. Fellow impending free agents Rich Hill and Bartolo Colon are superior pitchers to Hellickson, but they’re both significantly older than the 29-year-old (30 in April). Hellickson, therefore, might offer the best combination of relative youth and track record among those who are primed to hit the market.
Hellickson, who made $7MM this year, boosted his future earning power with his first above-average season since 2012, posting a 3.71 ERA, 7.33 K/9, 2.14 BB/9 and 14.3 percent infield fly rate across a career-high 189 innings. The former top prospect was even stingier at preventing runs as a Ray during his first three seasons, but the 2011 American League Rookie of the Year struggled with both Tampa Bay and Arizona from 2013-15. The rebuilding Phillies acquired Hellickson from the Diamondbacks in a salary dump last November, and the move paid dividends for Philadelphia this year. It could continue serving them well in the future if he re-signs or heads elsewhere and nets the team a draft choice.
“I would love to be back next year,” Hellickson said of Philadelphia.
However, the Phillies won’t look to spend significant money during the offseason, as FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal have reported this week. That makes it likely Hellickson’s stint with the club will go down as a one-off, per Zolecki.
Padres Mulling Role Change For Christian Bethancourt
The Padres are exploring the idea of turning catcher Christian Bethancourt into a multi-position player, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Bethancourt has thrown two bullpen sessions and could become a pitcher/catcher/outfielder hybrid, per Lin, who notes that the Padres recently shifted ex-catcher prospect Jorge Ruiz to the mound (Twitter links).
Bethancourt’s best asset is likely his arm, which some scouts have graded an 80 on the 20-80 scale, and the right-hander did see some time as a pitcher this year before suffering a season-ending intercostal strain at the end of August. The 25-year-old Bethancourt made two appearances on the mound and totaled 1 2/3 innings with three hits, a walk and a strikeout. Interestingly, Bethancourt’s pitches ranged from 54 mph to 96 mph during that limited sample size, with Mike Petriello of MLB.com noting (via Twitter) that he complemented his fastball with a changeup and knuckleball.
The Padres aren’t the first team to consider a position change for Bethancourt. His previous organization, the Braves, also mulled converting him into a pitcher, according to Lin. Ultimately, Atlanta traded the former top 100 prospect to the Padres last December.
Bethancourt hit an unpalatable .228/.265/.368 in 204 plate appearances with the Friars this season, which was actually a significant improvement over the .200/.225/.290 line he recorded in 160 PAs as a Brave in 2015. But such subpar production won’t suffice either behind the plate, where the Padres already have a potential long-term solution in Austin Hedges, or in the outfield. Bethancourt did garner some experience in the grass this season, though, as he picked up limited action in both corners. Now the Padres are deciding whether to have Bethancourt divvy up his time among the outfield, the mound and behind the plate going forward.
Jered Weaver Aims To Pitch In 2017
Angels right-hander Jered Weaver won’t pitch Sunday because of a back injury, but the erstwhile ace does aim to return in 2017.
“I am definitely not retiring,” Weaver told reporters, including Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times, on Saturday (Twitter link).
Weaver, a free agent-to-be, was on the fence about continuing his career earlier this week, saying Wednesday that he wasn’t sure if he’d come back next season. Now the question is whether Weaver will remain with the Angels. The 33-year-old (he’ll turn 34 on Tuesday) has been a member of the organization since it selected him 12th overall in the 2004 draft, but the three-time All-Star isn’t the asset he once was.
The Angels signed Weaver to a five-year, $85MM extension in August 2011, when he was amid a multiyear run as a front-line starter. From 2010 – his breakout season – through 2014, Weaver exceeded 200 innings three times and combined for a sparkling 2.99 ERA, 7.61 K/9 and 2.28 BB/9 over 1,016 1/3 frames. He morphed into a back-of-the-rotation type last year and has declined further during a career-worst 2016, which he’ll finish with a 5.06 ERA, 5.21 K/9 and 2.58 BB/9 over 178 innings. Even in his heyday, Weaver was an extreme fly ball pitcher, but his 28.8 percent ground-ball rate this year is both the lowest mark of his career and the worst among major league starters. That has helped lead to a 12.7 percent home run-to-fly ball rate, another career-worst figure for Weaver.
Looking ahead to 2017, the Angels are rife with rotation questions, which could help the soft-tossing Weaver land another deal with them. Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano will likely miss all of next season after they underwent Tommy John procedures earlier this summer, while the surgery could also be in Garrett Richards‘ future. Richards has recovered well since declining to to take the Tommy John route in May, when he instead chose stem-cell therapy treatment, but a setback would bring his availability for next year into question.
If the Angels are set to move on from Weaver, there might be a market for him elsewhere. It seemingly bodes well for him that free agency won’t feature many appealing options. While Weaver’s career has gone backward in recent seasons, he still possesses one of the top track records among soon-to-be free agent starters.
Jose Fernandez Dies In Boating Accident
In stunning and tragic news, one of baseball’s preeminent young stars, Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez, died in a boating accident early Sunday morning, the team has confirmed. Fernandez was 24.
“The Miami Marlins organization is devastated by the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family at a very difficult time,” the club said in a statement.
As a result of Fernandez’s death, the Marlins have canceled their game against the Braves on Sunday.
Fernandez was among three men who were found dead after a Coast Guard Patrol spotted an overturned boat off Miami Beach at 3:30 a.m. ET. The 32-foot boat the group was on had a “severe impact” with a jetty, Lorenzo Veloz of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission told the Associated Press. There’s “no indication of alcohol or illegal drugs involved,” though the high rate of speed at which the boat was traveling factored into the crash, the Coast Guard said (via ESPN.com and Adam Kuperstein of NBC 6).
In Fernandez, baseball has lost one of its most charismatic and talented performers, which commissioner Rob Manfred acknowledged in a statement.
“All of Baseball is shocked and saddened by the sudden passing of Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez. He was one of our game’s great young stars who made a dramatic impact on and off the field since his debut in 2013. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family, the Miami Marlins organization and all of the people he touched in his life,” said Manfred.
Before his career began, Fernandez endured a harrowing experience during his 2008 emigration from Cuba as he sought to realize his dream of pitching in the majors. He and his party dodged bullets from Cuban Coast Guard boats as they journeyed to Mexico. Along the way, Fernandez’s mother, Maritza, fell in the ocean, and he saved her from drowning.
“I dove to help a person not thinking who that person was,” said Fernandez. “Imagine when I realized it was my own mother. If that does not leave a mark on you for the rest of your life, I don’t know what will.”
Fernandez’s successful defection from Cuba came after three failed attempts, all of which occurred before he turned 15. Each of those three instances resulted in jail time for Fernandez, who became a United States citizen in 2015.
Three years after Fernandez departed his homeland, the Marlins selected him with the 14th pick of the 2011 draft. Two years later, he debuted with the Marlins and immediately emerged as one of the majors’ most electrifying arms. In 172 2/3 innings in 2013, Fernandez registered a sterling 2.19 ERA to go with 9.75 K/9 against 3.02 BB/9 en route to National League Rookie of the Year honors.
Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2014, which limited him to 51 2/3 innings that year and 64 2/3 frames last season. He returned in earnest this year and dominated the opposition, logging a 2.86 ERA, 12.49 K/9 and 2.71 BB/9 across a personal-best 182 1/3 innings. Overall, the ace amassed 471 1/3 career major league innings, recorded a 2.58 ERA, 11.25 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9, and earned two All-Star nods.
“He was the heartbeat of our team,” a Marlins official told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (Twitter link).
Prior to his death, Fernandez was set to become a father. His girlfriend, Carla Mendoza, has a baby on the way. The MLBTR staff joins the rest of the sports world in offering our condolences to Fernandez’s family and the Marlins organization.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pirates Hope To Re-Sign Sean Rodriguez
It didn’t take much last winter for the Pirates to re-sign utilityman Sean Rodriguez, who inked a one-year, $2.5MM contract after a poor season. Considering Rodriguez has drastically improved his output this year, Pittsburgh won’t be able to bring him back during the offseason at such a low cost, which general manager Neal Huntington knows.
“We’d love to have Sean remain in a Pirate uniform,” Huntington told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “Given what he’s done this year, we would fully anticipate that there’s going to be quite a market out there for him.”
Rodriguez has lined up everywhere but pitcher and catcher this season, though he has spent the lion’s share of his time at first base, the middle infield and right field. Offensively, the 31-year-old is amid a career campaign, having slashed a terrific .264/.345/.518 with 18 home runs through 320 plate appearances. Rodriguez’s overall line and homer total are easily personal bests since he broke into the majors with the Angels in 2008, and the longtime Ray has helped his cause with a 10 percent walk rate. That’s significantly better than the 2.1 percent mark Rodriguez posted in 2015, when he logged one of his worst seasons.
In assessing Rodriguez’s value, Huntington said, “Sean’s just done a remarkable job. The defensive versatility and the impact, it’s hard to measure.”
Rodriguez hit an uninspiring .228/.295/.371 across 2,093 PAs entering this season, but he could seek a multiyear deal worth around $5MM per annum on the heels of a strong 2016, writes Biertempfel. That would likely price him out of Pittsburgh, per Biertempfel, who notes that the club has potential in-house replacements in Adam Frazier and Alen Hanson. Frazier seems especially likely to take over for Rodriguez, as the 24-year-old has spent time at multiple infield and outfield positions and slashed .311/.361/.432 in his first 144 major league trips to the plate.
Reactions To Jose Fernandez’s Death
On the heels of Marlins ace Jose Fernandez‘s tragic death Sunday, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com wonders what might have been had his life not been cut short at the age of 24. The fun-loving Fernandez’s upside on the mound was limitless, writes Stark, who opines that the Cuba native could have been the next Pedro Martinez. To back up such high praise, Stark notes that Fernandez’s lifetime 150 ERA+ ranks first among right-handers whose careers began since World War II (minimum 70 starts).
More reactions to the death of Fernandez, whose loss has the baseball world in mourning:
- Speaking of Martinez, the 44-year-old Hall of Famer and three-time Cy Young Award winner said Sunday that Fernandez was a “better talent” than he was (Twitter link via Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald). That’s quite an endorsement from Martinez, hands down one of the greatest pitchers in the history of the sport.
- In emigrating from a communist country to emerge as an elite pitcher in the United States, Fernandez became the embodiment of the American Dream, offers Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. It wasn’t easy for Fernandez, who ended up in jail three times as a young teenager after failed attempts to immigrate to America. The fourth try, which came in 2008, was successful, but Fernandez had to dive into the ocean to save his mother from drowning as they fled to Mexico. Years later, in 2015, Fernandez became a proud U.S. citizen, as Passan details.
- On the field, Fernandez recorded the best FIP of any modern era pitcher – Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax rank second and third – per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Off the field, Fernandez brought happiness to those around him, writes Heyman. “He just could bring a smile to everyone’s face,” former teammate Steve Cishek said.
- At a tearful press conference Sunday, Marlins manager Don Mattingly added, “I see such a little boy in the way he played. Such joy. When you watch kids play Little League, that’s what I think about.” Stated owner Jeffrey Loria, “Sadly, the brightest lights are often the ones that extinguish the fastest. Jose left us far too soon, but his memory will endure in all of us. At this difficult time, our prayers are with his mother, grandmother, family and friends.”
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Ortiz, MVPs, Jays, Bucs, Yanks
This week in the baseball blogosphere…
- RSNStats focuses on soon-to-retire Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz, who’s enjoying one of the greatest final seasons in the history of baseball.
- MLB451 contends that Ortiz and Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy are this year’s MVPs.
- Pirates Breakdown explains why Pittsburgh has a chance to re-sign right-hander Ivan Nova.
- Call to the Pen breaks down whether the Blue Jays should re-sign any of their top three impending free agents, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders.
- Chin Music Baseball names five young players whose careers have gone backward in 2016.
- Camden Depot addresses the Steve Clevenger controversy.
- Think Blue Planning Committee projects which position players will make the Dodgers’ playoff roster.
- Philliedelphia explores the possibility of the Phillies re-signing righty Jeremy Hellickson.
- TPOP looks ahead to 2017 for Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen.
- Pinstriped Prospects interviews Yankees right-handed pitching prospect Nick Green.
- Outside Pitch MLB praises Nationals right-hander Tanner Roark.
- Baseball Hot Corner asks whether J.A. Happ or Aaron Sanchez should start if the Blue Jays earn a place in the wild-card game.
- Inside the ‘Zona revisits some recent Diamondbacks trades and provides verdicts on each.
- Yanks Go Yard gives five reasons to be excited about the 2017 Yankees.
- Jays From The Couch advises Toronto to mimic Cleveland’s bullpen approach.
- Dan Grant of Same Page Team recommends Major League Baseball expand rosters in April, not September.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger lists which Yankees will be in danger of losing their 40-man roster spots during the winter.
- Innings Eaters ponders where utilityman Adam Frazier will fit on next year’s Pirates.
- The Runner Sports profiles Astros outfielder Tony Kemp.
- Halo Headquarters analyzes which areas the Angels could address in free agency.
- Ranger Report contemplates what Texas’ playoff rotation will look like.
- Chris Zantow goes back to 1986, the most recent year in which the Brewers had a 20-game winner.
- Rotisserie Duck offers a history lesson on the save stat.
- Everything Bluebirds wants the Blue Jays to develop more of a mean streak.
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